How Green Are We?

Are you kidding? Americans have a long way to go before they show the slightest hint of green. The first results from the federal government's Residential Energy Consumption Survey released a few weeks ago reveal how much energy households use--and waste. The survey, taken every five years, asks households about their heating and cooling practices, electronics ownership, and appliance use. The latest results are from the 2005 survey--admittedly a bit dated, but the U.S. housing stock is so massive that these numbers change slowly. Here is the bad news.

AIR CONDITIONING

• Only 16 percent of American households are not air-conditioned. Fifty-nine percent have central air conditioning, and another 26 percent have window or wall units.
  
• Sixty-one percent of households with central air-conditioning run the system all summer.
  
• Only 48 percent of homes with central air-conditioning have large trees that shade their house.
  

HEATING

• Twenty-four percent of homes have high ceilings, which require more energy to heat.
  
• Only 19 percent of all homes use a programmable thermostat to reduce temperature settings at night.
  
• Forty percent say their home is drafty in the winter.
  

APPLIANCES

• Fifty-eight percent of households have a dishwasher, 79 percent have a clothes dryer, 83 percent have a clothes washer, and everyone has a refrigerator.
  
• Twenty-two percent of homes have two or more refrigerators.
  

TELEVISION

• Virtually every household (99 percent) has at least one color television set. Seventy-eight percent have at least two sets, and 43 percent have three or more.
  
• Half of households have their television turned on most or all of the time.
  

Ten All-American Traits

In the run-up to the November election, we are engaged--once again--in ritual self-analysis. Who are the American people? What do we believe? How will our national identity play out in the election?

For the answers, let's peer into the statistical mirror--the General Social Survey. The GSS has been reflecting the American identity for more than 30 years. The most recent results from the 2006 survey reveal the good, the bad, and the ugly of the American identity. Take a look.

1. We are tough. Among the world's nations, the United States ranks number one in prisoners per capita, yet

68 percent of Americans still think the courts
are not harsh enough on criminals.

And our toughness extends well beyond law enforcement.

72 percent agree that it is sometimes necessary
to discipline a child with a "good, hard spanking."


2. We want it both ways. Fully 63 percent of the public wants to cut the government's purse strings. Only 13 percent oppose spending cuts. But when asked what we should cut, our enthusiasm wanes. These are the percentages of Americans who want to cut spending by specific program area:

education: 4
health care: 6
retirement benefits: 7
law enforcement: 8
environment: 13
natural disasters: 14
military: 26
arts: 30


3. We are careless. Americans are forever thumping their chests with pride, and the one thing we boast about the most is our freedom. Yet the majority of Americans are willing to give up that freedom without much of a fight:

56 percent think the government probably or definitely
should have the right to jail people without a trial.


4. We are religious. Among the world's developed countries, the United States stands alone in its religiosity.

59 percent pray at least once a day.
Only 50 percent believe in evolution.


5. We are hard working. In fact, we are workaholics. This may explain why American workers have so little vacation time compared to their European counterparts and why we do not demand more time off:

70 percent would continue to work even if rich.


6. We are diverse. The Census Bureau continually tells us how diverse we are, but does it matter much anymore? GSS results suggest that the racial divide is not so big after all:

74 percent of blacks have trusted white friends.
52 percent of whites have trusted black friends.

54 percent of blacks have white family members.
20 percent of whites have black family members.


7. We are alienated. Americans do not have warm and fuzzy feelings toward public officials or their fellow citizens:

Only 35 percent say politicians are interested
in the problems of the average person.

Only 32 percent believe most people can be trusted.

80 percent believe others will take advantage of you
if you are not careful.


8. We are uptight. Americans have a well-deserved reputation for being prudish about sex:

Only 46 percent believe premarital sex is not wrong at all.
Only 32 percent believe homosexuality is not wrong at all.

But we are also practical:

89 percent support sex education in the public schools.
54 percent think teens should have access to birth control.


9. We like to stay put. Americans live in the third largest country in the world, but they restrict themselves to a very small portion of it.

38 percent still live in the same city they lived in at age 16.
62 percent live in the same state they lived in at age 16.


10. We still dream. Perhaps the single defining characteristic of Americans in both good times and bad is our steadfast belief in the American Dream:

69 percent say hard work, rather than luck or connections,
determines success.

70 percent say the United States gives people like them
the opportunity to improve their standard of living.

Census Bureau Eliminates Income Table

If you want to know how family income affects college enrollment, the Census Bureau no longer has the answers. The bureau eliminated table 14, showing the college enrollment status of 18-to-24-year-olds by family income, from its school enrollment tabulations.

Year after year, this table has tracked the disparities in college enrollment by family income. Now we just have to guess.

Source: Bureau of the Census, School Enrollment

Only 16 Percent Exercise

Here is the latest nugget from the American Time Use Survey: only 16 percent of Americans exercise on an average day.

The time use survey, which started in 2003, records the minute-by-minute activities of a representative sample of Americans on an average day. Now that the survey has collected four years worth of data, analysts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are combining years and coming up with a large enough sample size to reliably examine activities in which few Americans engage. Unfortunately, exercise is one of those infrequent activities. Here are a few of the highlights from the Sports and Exercise study, which examines data from 2003 through 2006.

• Among the 25 activities included in the time use survey, walking is most popular among exercisers (30 percent), followed by weightlifting (13 percent), using cardiovascular equipment (13 percent), swimming (8 percent), and running (7 percent).

• Women account for 57 percent of walkers, 42 percent of runners.

• People under age 25 account for 7 percent of walkers and 31 percent of runners.

• More than half of those exercising (52 percent) did so alone.

Source: Spotlight on Statistics: Sports and Exercise

Golf Course Fatalities

If you have ever wondered where your tax dollars go, you can rest assured that at least a few cents go toward collecting and analyzing information about every death in the United States. No death is unworthy of the government's attention, including the 106 workers who died at a golf course between 2001 and 2006. During the six years of data analyzed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual number of workers dying at a golf course ranged from 11 to 24. The largest share of fatalities (33) were nonhighway vehicle accidents—9 of them overturned lawnmowers. Other causes of death included falling, trench collapse, getting struck by a falling object (a golf ball perhaps?), and even airplane accidents. The report notes that any deaths occurring at miniature golf courses were not included in the analysis. Nearly half (51) of those killed in golf-course related incidents worked in landscaping. One-third were Hispanic. Source: Fatal Occupational Injuries Associated with Golf Courses and Country Clubs, 2001-2006

Why We Are Bitter

Americans are bummed out--some might even call us bitter. When asked whether the country is on the right track, a record 81 percent of the public says it has veered off course, according to a recent New York Times survey. The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April finds consumer confidence at the lowest level since 1982. The percentage of Americans who tell the Gallup daily tracking poll that economic conditions in the country are getting worse, at 85 percent in mid-April, is close to an all-time high.

The roots of our bitterness run much deeper than the housing slump or credit crisis. The roots lie in the circumstances of the nation's primary breadwinners--men. Men's earnings are not keeping pace with inflation. This problem started more than two decades ago, but until recently American families have been singing and dancing up the yellow brick road as they made their way to the Emerald City--the American Dream.

Among men working year-round, full-time, median earnings stood at $42,261 in 2006 (the latest data available). But here is the problem: The average man earns less today than he did in 1986, when his median earnings were $44,303 (in 2006 dollars). Between 1986 and 2006, then, the median earnings of the average man with a full-time job fell by more than $2,000, a 5 percent decline. Blue-collar workers are not the only ones who have felt the pinch, either. After years of steadily rising wages, the median earnings of college-educated men peaked in 2002. Their earnings have fallen 3 percent since then.

Until recently, Americans have been largely unaware of these worrisome trends because women's growing incomes hid the decline in men's earnings. Between 1986 and 2006, the median earnings of women who work full-time grew 14 percent, after adjusting for inflation. That earnings growth not only masked the decline in men's earnings, it also boosted household incomes to record highs. Women were proud of their jobs. Men were proud of their family's rising standard of living.

Now we have reached the end of the road. We are at the Emerald City, but something is not right. Women's median earnings peaked in 2002 and have fallen 4 percent since then. Just when we thought we had achieved the American Dream, the curtain has fallen away from the Wizard and revealed him to be nothing more than our own ever-harder work. Our standard of living has been rising all these years not because workers are earning more, but because households are sending more workers into the labor force. There is nobody left to earn an additional paycheck unless we put our children to work. Median household income peaked in 1999, but costs continue to rise. In a world where globalization and technological change are rewriting the rules, Americans have finally noticed that they are not in Kansas anymore.

Voting Clout

Which generation will have the most clout in the 2008 presidential election? Although younger voters are becoming more important, the baby-boom generation will still cast the largest share of votes. Here is how the votes will stack up in November:

Millennial: 19 percent
Gen X: 20 percent
Boomer: 38 percent
Older: 23 percent

Millennial and gen X voters will be outnumbered by both boomers and the older generation. Together, however, the political clout of the two younger generations will exceed even that of the baby-boom generation itself.

Source: Numbers based on voting rates by age in 2004 and projections of the population for 2008, Census Bureau

Most Homeowners Are Not in Trouble

"Tapped-Out Consumers" was the recent headline in a Business Week article about the unfolding housing crisis. The New York Times chimed in with the sweeping claim that "Everyone from first-time homebuyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn't go bad."

Everyone made bets? Time out. Let's check those breathless reports from the front lines of the housing crisis.

In fact, the unfolding housing crisis is hurting only a tiny percentage of homeowners. To get a realistic perspective, you have to look beyond the numerator--the people in trouble. You must also consider the denominator--the total number of homeowners. The denominator is HUGE. Last year there were 75 million homeowners in the United States. Few of them are in trouble.

Here's why: nearly one-third of the nation's homeowners--24 million--own their home free and clear, according to the latest statistics from the American Community Survey. That means they have no mortgage, no home equity loans, and are in no danger of foreclosure. While the decline in housing values may make them uncomfortable, it will not affect their bottom line unless, for some reason, they have to sell their house before housing prices resume their historically slow upward climb.

Things are not all that bad for the 51 million homeowners with a mortgage either. Most have managed their asset wisely. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of the nation's financial institutions, which is the reason our economy is on the brink of recession. Let's look at the facts.

1. Most homeowners with a mortgage have a traditional loan. Fully 81 percent of homeowners with a mortgage have a fixed-rate loan, and their median interest rate is just 6 percent according to the American Housing Survey.

2. Most homeowners have a substantial cushion of equity in their home, a cushion that will protect them from all but the most catastrophic price drops. Homeowners with a mortgage owe, on average, only 55 percent of their home's value--leaving room for a substantial price decline before they are in hot water.

3. Most homeowners have NOT used their home as an ATM machine. Only 13 percent of the nation's 75 million homeowners even have a home equity loan, according to the American Community Survey. This fact bears repeating because the media narrative has "everyone" spending down their housing equity on granite countertops and large-screen TVs. To repeat, more than 85 percent of the nation's homeowners do NOT have a home equity loan.

Of course, in a housing market as large as ours, even a small percentage in trouble means millions are drowning. The American Housing Survey reveals that only 3 percent of homeowners owe more than their house is worth, for example, but that 3 percent amounts to 2.5 million homeowners. Even so, these numbers are a far cry from "everyone." Everyone did not make foolish bets, but the unfolding crisis shows that everyone will be hurt by the few homeowners and the many financial institutions that did.

What's Wrong with Young People?

By now everyone has heard that teenagers and young adults do not know much about history, cannot locate Ohio on a map, and spend way too much time texting when they should be doing more important things--like listening to their elders lecture them about their many shortcomings.

Who can blame them for not listening? For some reason, it is always the young--not the old--who are being told of their failings. The old have been complaining about the young since time immemorial. But turnabout is fair play, so let's explore for a moment whether older Americans are as wise and industrious as they pretend to be. Here are three stories about old folks that could be in the news:

Glued to the Tube: Why Can't the Elderly Find Something Better to Do?
Results from a national survey reveal that older Americans have a serious addiction to television. The latest American Time Use Survey shows that people aged 65 or older spend one-fourth of their waking hours watching television as their primary activity, far more than any other age group. People aged 65 to 74 spend 3.83 hours a day watching TV. For those aged 75 or older, the figure is an even larger 4.18 hours--twice as much time as young adults spend watching TV. For expert advice on what is behind this potentially harmful addiction to television, we turn to--

Technophobes: Irrational Fear Grips Older Americans as Times Change
Health experts have detected a new syndrome infecting Americans aged 55 and older. The syndrome manifests itself as a fear of pushing buttons and prevents millions from adopting modern conveniences such as cell phones, computers, and the Internet. With nearly every young adult online and using a cell phone, the young are increasingly frustrated and alarmed at the unwillingness of the older generations to communicate with them. "What's up?" ask young people. Only 37 percent of people aged 65 or older are online, according to Pew Internet & American Life Project. Cell phone ownership is also abysmally low in the age group. Psychologists have so far been unable to explain--

Whoa! Say Older Adults--Why They Impede Scientific Progress
A new study reveals that older Americans are wary of science. According to results of the 2006 General Social Survey, most people aged 60 or older agree with the statement, "Science makes our way of life change too fast." A much smaller 40 percent of young adults agree. What is behind the attitude gap? Some say education, since young adults are much better educated than older Americans. Most young adults have been to college, while few older Americans have any college experience. Yet, because of their high voting rate, older generations determine science funding in the United States. The only way to resolve this conflict--

These stories are just as newsworthy as the ones detailing the failures of young adults, but you won't see them in the news anytime soon. Why? Because older generations, not young adults, decide what makes the news.

What's in Store for Books?

Grab your hankies and prepare to weep. A National Endowment for the Arts report (To Read or Not to Read) warns of a decline in book reading over the past decade. The percentage of adults who have read a book for pleasure (not required for work or school) in the past year fell from 61 percent in 1992 to 57 percent in 2002--a 4 percentage point decline. Is this decline a cause for concern or, rather, a sign of the book's staying power? To get a better perspective, let's look at what has happened to two other traditional media outlets--the daily newspaper and the network evening news.

Between 1991 and 2002 (roughly the same time period is used for comparability; more recent data are available), the percentage of people who read a newspaper every day fell from 52 to 41 percent, according to the General Social Survey--a much larger decline than the one experienced by books. Even more telling, industry statistics show that since 1990 unit sales of trade books have increased, while weekday newspaper circulation has decreased.

Yes, average household spending on books has dropped. It fell by a painful 28 percent between 1991 and 2006 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. But much of the decline in spending can be explained by the growing sales of used books and the deep discounts offered by Amazon.com and other Internet retailers. No such benign factors can explain why household spending on newspapers and magazines fell by a heartrending 60 percent during the same years.

Network evening news is also experiencing a precipitous decline. The average number of people who watch network evening news plummeted from 42 million to 30 million between 1992 and 2002 (the same time period is used for comparability; more recent data are available), according to the Project for Excellence in Journalism. Not only is the network news audience shrinking, it is also aging. The median age of the viewers of evening news is now 60.

The fact is, the percentage of people who read for pleasure has remained remarkably stable over the past decade considering the enormous expansion of television channels and the adoption of computers and the Internet. Even more important, the demographics of book readers are healthy. Young adults are almost as likely as older Americans to be regular book readers, according to a 2004 NEA report (Reading at Risk). Forty-three percent of busy 18-to-24-year-olds have read a work of fiction in the past year, not too far below the peak of 52 percent among 45-to-54-year-olds. Contrast that 9 percentage point gap with this one: only 18 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds regularly watch network evening news compared with the peak of 56 percent among people aged 65 or older--a gap of 38 percentage points. Or this one: only 16 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds read a newspaper every day compared with 66 percent of people aged 65 or older--a gap of 50 percentage points.

Newspapers and network evening news are being supplanted by more efficient ways of getting up-to-the-minute information. Some claim electronic devices such as Kindle will replace books. But hand-held electronic devices are no more likely to replace books read for pleasure than video screens have replaced original art, virtual tours have replaced travel, or pills have replaced food.

Last of the Big Spenders

"Consumers stopped buying pretty much everything," commented the Associated Press in a news story about the 0.6 percent decline in February's retail sales. This bit of hyperbole about the $380 billion Americans spent at retailers in February is yet another example of the abysmal quality of reporting on trends in the consumer marketplace.

To put it bluntly, reporters just do not get it. They err--out of confusion or laziness--when they explain macroeconomic trends as if those trends describe the behavior of you and your neighbors. It is called anthropomorphizing, and it can be a harmless way of putting a human face on dry statistics. Not in this case. By anthropomorphizing macroeconomic trends, reporters are misleading the public about the real dynamics of the consumer marketplace.

For years, the people who bring us the news have been telling us what big spenders we are, when all along we have been cautious consumers. Now they are telling us what scrooges we are, when we are the same cautious consumers we have always been. How did reporters get so far off track?

It all started decades ago with the rise in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a macroeconomic indicator. PCE is one of those dry statistics-the sum of all spending on consumer products and services in the United States. Between 1984 and 2006, PCE more than doubled after adjusting for inflation. Rather than explain the real reasons for the rapid growth in PCE, reporters simply anthropomorphized the trend and called Americans big spenders. In fact, average household spending grew by only 14 percent between 1984 and 2006, after adjusting for inflation--less even than the gain in real median household income. And the spending of baby boomers (the ones usually accused of being the most profligate spenders) increased by an even smaller 4 percent, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. This modest rise in spending is even more impressive when you consider the 59 percent increase in the price of a new single-family home during those years, the 100 percent increase in the cost of college, or the 101 percent increase in out-of-pocket health insurance expenses.

Clearly, the average American has been pinching pennies all along. What accounts, then, for the ballooning PCE? To answer the question, reporters needed to look under the hood of the macroeconomic trends and discover what drove the engine. If they had bothered to look, here is what they would have found:

The population is growing. The United States is one of the fastest growing developed countries in the world, so it is only natural that aggregate consumer spending will rise each year along with the population. This does not mean you and your neighbors are spending more, however.

Boomers filled the peak spending life stage. Over the past two decades the enormous baby-boom generation filled the 35-to-54 age group, the peak spending years. Consequently, the number of affluent households reached record levels, the housing market exploded, and the nation's aggregate spending soared--even as individual households held their spending in check.

The price of stuff plummeted. The average American home has multiple television sets, closets full of clothes, and a kitchen full of appliances. Americans have more stuff because stuff is cheap. Televisions, video recorders, microwaves, dishwashers, computers, cameras--if the product uses an electrical cord or a battery, chances are it costs a fraction of what it did two decades ago. Television sets, for example, cost 85 percent less than they did in the 1980s. Falling prices have affected more than electronics. Toys cost 32 percent less, and clothing is less expensive. Just because we have more does not mean we are spending more.

Credit card payments ballooned. Consumer borrowing has grown handily over the years, but not because the average American is drowning in debt. Consumers are paying with plastic as a convenience, not an easy-money scheme. According to a Pew Research Center survey, just 31 percent of consumers carry a balance on their credit card bill. Among those who carry a balance, the median amount owed is a modest $2,200, reports the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances.

The real story behind consumer spending is this: Americans did not spend foolishly when times were good. And their skill at pinching pennies may help soften the landing in the bad times that lie ahead.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of high school students aged 16 to 17 who have jobs

2007: 21
2000: 30

Source: "Youth enrollment and employment during the school year," Monthly Labor Review

New Mothers at Work

Percent of mothers who are working within 12 months of giving birth

1961-65: 17

2000-02: 64

Source: Maternity Leave and Employment Patterns, 1961-2003

Dropout Rate Lower than Ever

Percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are high school dropouts

1960: 27.2

1970: 15.0

1980: 14.1

1990: 12.1

2000: 10.9

2005: 9.4

Note: Dropouts are defined as people aged 16-to-24 who are not currently enrolled in school and have not completed a high school program.

Source: Digest of Education Statistics

Homeownership Rate Continues to Slide

The government's annual estimates of homeownership have just been released, and the Census Bureau reports another decline in the nation's homeownership rate. The rate fell from 68.8 percent of households in 2006 to 68.1 percent in 2007. This is well below the peak homeownership rate of 69.0 percent reached in 2004. 

The homeownership rate fell in almost every age group between 2004 and 2007, with the biggest loss occurring among 30-to-34-year-olds—a 3 percentage point decline. Only one age group did not see homeownership become less common during those years. The homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds increased by 0.4 percentage points between 2004 and 2007. 

Here are the 2007 numbers by age:

Total households: 68.1

Under age 25: 24.8

Aged 25 to 29: 40.6 

Aged 30 to 34: 54.4

Aged 35 to 39: 65.0

Aged 40 to 44: 70.4

Aged 45 to 49: 74.0

Aged 50 to 54: 76.9

Aged 55 to 59: 79.9

Aged 60 to 64: 81.5

Aged 65 to 69: 81.7

Aged 70 to 74: 82.4

Aged 75 or older: 78.7

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Millennials are Liberal

The nation's youngest adults are the most liberal Americans. The millennial generation (the oldest of whom turn 31 this year) is the only one in which liberals outnumber conservatives. Thirty-four percent of millennials say they are slightly to extremely liberal while a smaller 30 percent say they are slightly to extremely conservative. The remaining 36 percent are moderates.

You might think millennials are liberal only because they are young. Not true. Political viewpoints, in fact, are remarkably stable over a lifetime. Take the baby-boom generation, for example. Today, 25 percent of boomers say they are liberal. Twenty years ago, when boomers were in their twenties and thirties, almost the same proportion (27 percent) identified themselves as liberal. Today, 35 percent of boomers say they are conservative, nearly equal to the 36 percent who called themselves conservative two decades ago. 

The other generations also show remarkable stability in their political viewpoints over time. And each succeeding generation is more liberal than its predecessor. 

Source: General Social Survey

Fewer Self-Employed

So much for America's entrepreneurial spirit. Self-employment is disappearing in the United States as workers cry uncle in the health insurance wrestling match. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections, the percentage of non-agricultural workers who are self-employed will fall even lower than its current miniscule level of 6.7 percent during the next ten years. Interestingly, the BLS foresees this decline despite the baby-boom generation's entry into the prime age of self-employment: 65-plus. People aged 65 or older are more likely to be self-employed than younger adults because Medicare—the universal health insurance program for the nation's elderly—solves their health insurance problem.  The projected decline in self-employment despite the aging of boomers means only one thing: self-employment among younger Americans will drop to rock-bottom levels as Americans become contortionists in their hunt for affordable health care coverage. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Where the Jobs Are

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics produces a new set of occupational projections, looking ten years into the future. The list of fastest-growing occupations says a lot about our demographics, economy, and culture. These are some of the 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest between 2006 and 2016:

Home health aides

Computer software engineers

Veterinarians

Personal financial advisors

Skin care specialists

Gaming surveillance officers

Marriage and family therapists

Environmental science technicians

Manicurists and pedicurists

Physical therapists

For more on the gainers and losers, see the November issue of the Monthly Labor Review. 

Hispanic Births Surpass 1 Million

The number of births to Hispanics surpassed 1 million for the first time in 2006, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Of the 4,265,996 babies born in the United States last year, 1,039,051 were Hispanic. 

Since 2000, the annual number of births to Hispanics has grown by more than 200,000. The Hispanic share of births has climbed from 20 to 24 percent. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2006 

More Use Cell Phones Only

Almost one-third of young adults aged 25 to 29 are cell phone only users, with no landline phone at home. The figure reached 31 percent this year--up from 10 percent just three years ago, according to a study by the National Center for Health Statistics. Among 20-to-24-year-olds, a substantial 28 percent have only cell phones. 

Older Americans are less inclined to give up their landline phone. Only 13 percent of people aged 30 to 44 use cell phones only. The figure falls to 7 percent among 45-to-64-year-olds, and is a small 2 percent among people aged 65 or older. But change may be on the way. The latest spending statistics from the 2006 Consumer Expenditure Survey show both young and middle-aged householders spending more on cell phone than landline phone service. Only householders aged 55 or older still devote more of their dollars to landline phones. 

The latest report shows 80 percent of American children and 76 percent of adults in households with at least one cell phone.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution, January--June 2007