Young Homeowners by Region

The 30-to-34 age group is important for the housing market. This is the age group in which the homeownership rate typically rises above the 50 percent threshold, making homeownership the norm. A look at the homeownership rate of households headed by 30-to-34-year-olds by region shows that rates have already fallen below this threshold in two regions. More declines could be in store if growing numbers of young adults find homeownership unaffordable (because of unemployment, students loans, and tougher mortgage requirements) or undesirable (fear of losing their job, fear of being tied down).

Percent of householders aged 30 to 34 who own their home by region in 2004 (the year the overall homeownership rate peaked nationally) and 2010...

	2010	2004
U.S. total	51.6	57.4
Northeast	49.7	51.9
Midwest	58.2	65.0
South	53.1	58.8
West	44.6	52.1

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Don't Expect Your Income to be Stable

A Census Bureau study of household income levels from 2004 through 2007 found that change--big change--is practically the norm. In a longitudinal analysis, the Census Bureau found 50 percent of households experiencing an income gain or loss of at least 25 percent between 2004 and 2007. Twenty-seven percent of households saw their income rise by at least 25 percent, and 22 percent of households saw their incomes fall by at least 25 percent. Note that the study years preceded the Great Recession.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Fluctuations in the U.S. Income Distribution, 2004-2007

Back to the Witch Doctor

Percentage of households whose members have done the following in the past 12 months because of cost...

Skipped dental care or checkups: 33%
Relied on home remedies instead of going to the doctor: 32%
Put off or postponed getting needed health care: 28%
Not filled a prescription for a medicine: 21%
Skipped a recommended medical test or treatment: 21%
Cut pills in half or skipped doses: 15%

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, Health Security Watch: April 2011

Who Needs Medicare?

A history lesson: Before Medicare came to the rescue in 1965, the poverty rate of Americans aged 65 or older was as high as 35.2 percent. Today, the poverty rate of the elderly is just 8.9 percent thanks to Medicare.

Before Medicare, few older Americans had health insurance because it was unaffordable. When they inevitably became ill, they spent down their savings to pay their medical bills, driving many into poverty--and that was before health care costs went through the roof. Research shows that net worth falls among adults whose parents do not have health insurance. Why is that? Because those children are not going to stand idly by while their parents get sick and die without medical care. So they spend down their savings to save mom and dad. And so on, and so on.

Who needs Medicare? Asked and answered.

Who Supports Gay Marriage?

Americans are much more supportive of gay marriage today than they used to be. There are two reasons for this. One, some people are changing their minds about the issue. Two, a generation gap has emerged in attitudes toward gay marriage, with younger, more accepting generations replacing older generations that frown on same-sex relationships.  

In 2010, 46 percent of the public agreed that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, according to the General Social Survey. In 1988, the first time the GSS asked this question, only 12 percent of the public supported gay marriage.

In 1988, there was little support for gay marriage in any cohort. Among boomers (then aged 24 to 42), only 14 percent agreed that gay/lesbian marriage should be legal. Among young adults (18 to 29), the figure was an almost identical 13 percent, which is not surprising since boomers accounted for most young adults at the time. Among people aged 65 or older in 1988, only 9 percent agreed that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry.

In 2010, the landscape is different. Boomers and older Americans have become more accepting of gay marriage over the years, but the majority is still opposed. Among boomers (aged 46 to 64), 41 percent now support gay marriage. Among people aged 65 or older, 34 percent are now in support. These numbers are significantly higher than they were in 1988, but they still represent a minority view. In contrast, among 18-to-29-year-olds in 2010, fully 65 percent think gays and lesbians should be allowed to marry.

In 1988, there was a tiny 4 percentage point difference in the proportion of young and old adults who thought gay marriage should be legal (13 and 9 percent, respectively). In 2010, the gap is an enormous 31 percentage points (65 and 34 percent, respectively).

As young adults age and replace older generations, gay marriage will become legal and will no longer be controversial. But because older Americans are much more likely to vote than younger adults, gay marriage will be an issue in the voting booth for years to come.

College Enrollment Rates

As of October, 68.1 percent of students who graduated from high school in 2010 were enrolled in college, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure was down from the record high of 70.1 percent in October 2009.

Women are far more likely than men to enroll in college. Among 2010 high school graduates, 74.0 percent of women and 62.8 percent of men were enrolled in college in October 2010.

The percentage also varied greatly by race and Hispanic origin. Asian high school graduates were most likely to be in college (84.0 percent), followed by whites (68.6 percent), and blacks (61.4 percent). Hispanic high school graduates were least likely to be enrolled in college (59.6 percent).

Teens Not at Work

Labor force participation rate of teenagers aged 16 to 19...

2000: 52%
2010: 35%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Legal Immigrants Top 1 Million, Again

The number of people obtaining legal permanent resident status in the United States (i.e., legal immigrants) exceeded 1 million in 2010, according to the newly released update of the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. The annual number of legal immigrants has surpassed 1 million each year since 2005.

The Average Man

The average man with a full-time job earned a median of $49,164 in 2009, according to the Current Population Survey—$321 less than he earned in 1973, after adjusting for inflation.

What are They Thinking?

Another miss for the media, according to the latest weekly survey by the Pew Research Center.

During the past week, the American public continued to be most interested in news about the Japanese disaster (50 percent said they were following this story most closely), but only 12 percent of news stories were about Japan.

The economy ranked a distant second in the public's news interest (14 percent were following stories about the economy most closely), and 10 percent of news stories were about the economy.

Libya is a different—and apparently the only—story. Only 13 percent of the public is following the news about Libya most closely, yet Libya dominated the news and accounted for 34 percent of coverage.

No wonder Americans have so little confidence in the press.

Planning Never to Retire is Not a Retirement Plan

According to the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey, 74 percent of the nation's workers plan to work for pay in retirement. But among the nation's retirees, only 23 percent are working. Although many boomers think they will work in retirement, it is likely that most will not.

A number of things conspire to prevent the elderly from working well into their sixties and seventies, not the least of which is deteriorating health. The life expectancy of people aged 65 in 2006 was 18.5 years, but only 12.2 of those years are free of activity-limiting disabilities, according to an analysis by the National Center for Health Statistics. For married couples, the shared years of health remaining at age 65 are even less. Caregiving responsibilities multiply. Those who think they will work in retirement need a Plan B.

Millions Fewer Non-Hispanic Whites

Size of non-Hispanic white population...

2010 census:   196,817,552
2009 estimate: 199,851,240

Difference:        –3,033,688

Dear Social Scientist

You do important research. You connect the dots for the rest of us. But if you want the rest of us to marvel at your findings, please explain your research in a way that the average journalist or armchair pundit can understand. Otherwise, your work will fall into the black hole of good intentions, never to be seen again.

Case in point: The Federal Reserve Board's new update of household wealth. Important stuff. But the written analysis is so complex that the findings were virtually ignored by the media. Journalists could not make sense of it. The supplemental tables contained calculations that could not be replicated using the numbers shown, causing the average armchair pundit to throw up his hands in disgust. (See my analysis of the wealth update here, here, and here.)

Another example: A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research on the effect of health crises on household wealth. That sounds interesting, and it is timely. But the analysis is written for statistics geeks, making the findings (yes, health crises do affect wealth, even across generations)  inaccessible to journalists who might have reported on the results.

Please summarize your findings. Write in plain English. Make the results notable and quotable. In doing so, your social science research may escape the black hole and become a shining star, helping us navigate into the future.

Big Numbers

More than 111 million Americans are Asian, black, Hispanic, or some other minority—36 percent of the total population, according to the 2010 census. That's enough to sit up and take notice, especially because so many states (20, plus the District of Columbia) have large minority populations.

The states in which minorities account for at least one-third of the population: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

The states in which fewer than 10 percent of the population is minority: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Source: Bureau of the Census, An Overview: Race and Hispanic Origin and the 2010 Census

The Aging of Housing

The average household lives in a housing unit with a median age of 35 years. In other words, half the nation's occupied housing units were built in 1974 or earlier and half were built after that year, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey.

The nation's housing stock renews slowly. Very slowly. And the rate of renewal is slowing, too. In 1999, the median age of the nation's occupied housing units was 30 years, with half built in 1969 or before and half after that year. In 1989, the median age of occupied housing units was 26 years, with 1963 the median year of construction. Despite the housing bubble and overbuilding in many parts of the country, the occupied housing stock is older today than it was ten or twenty years ago.

At the current rate of renewal, it will take more than 60 years before the houses being built in 2011 or later account for half the occupied housing units in the United States. Bottom line: If we want to see widespread housing innovation in our lifetimes--such as greater energy efficiency, digital home integration, and improved access to public services--then it must occur through rehabilitation of existing structures and communities rather than through new construction and developments.

Who Goes to the Movies?

Among Americans aged 18 or older, 53 percent have been to a movie in the past year. Here is the percentage by age...

18-24:  74%
25-34:  65%
35-44:  60%
45-54:  53%
55-64:  46%
65-74:  32%
75+:  19%

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, 2008 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts

The Mystery of Travel Statistics

Ever wonder what would happen if we privatized our demographic and economic data collection systems? To find out, take a look at the sorry state of travel statistics. You would think an industry of such importance to the U.S. economy would have a readily accessible trove of numbers, trends, and insights available to reporters, researchers, entrepreneurs, and armchair pundits. Instead, the statistics are locked up in organizations run by lobbyists for the travel industry, which charge hundreds of dollars for research publications on top of hefty membership fees. Google the government agency in charge of travel information, and you will click upon the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, self-described as "an official U.S. Government site produced and maintained by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries." Except for summary statistics, the annual reports go for $1,000 and up. Chilling.

Couch Potatoes

Percentage of American adults who are physically inactive: 33%.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009

The Housing Market's Problem

Yes, the unemployment rate is falling. Slowly. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate declined to 8.8 percent in March, down from 8.9 percent in February. We may be on the road to recovery, but our progress is blocked by what has been destroyed: confidence. The average American worker feels much less secure in his job than he did a few years ago. The percentage who think there is no chance they could lose their job in the next year, as shown in the post below, fell from 71 to 52 percent between 2000 and 2010, according to the General Social Survey.

This insecurity might be good news for businesses that want to hold down wages. But it is a disaster for the housing market. With the threat of unemployment looming over them, how many will be brave enough to buy a house? Apparently, not many.

Fear of Job Loss

Percentage of American workers who think it is "not likely" that they will lose their job in the next 12 months...

2010:  52%
2008:  59%
2006:  64%
2004:  64%
2002:  63%
2000:  71%

Source: General Social Surveys