Teen Unemployment Rate Is below 10%

Last month the unemployment rate among teenagers aged 16 to 19 was just 9.6 percent. This is a remarkably low rate. You would have to search in the records all the way back to 1953 to find a lower unemployment rate for the age group, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The unemployment rate for 16-to-19-year-olds climbed as high as 32.1 percent in April 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic swept through the nation. With employers now scrambling to fill entry-level positions, the teen unemployment rate in July 2021 was well below its pre-pandemic level. Two years earlier, in July 2019, 12.0 percent of 16-19-year-olds were unemployed. 

Unlike teens, the unemployment rate for adults aged 20 or older remains higher than it was pre-pandemic. In July 2021, 5.2 percent of adults were unemployed compared with 3.3 percent in July 2019. 

Note: The unemployed are people who have been actively looking for a job in the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force (the sum of the employed and the unemployed).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Teenage Unemployment Rate under 10 Percent for the Third Straight Month in July 2021

Family Unemployment Doubled between 2019 and 2020

Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues a report on the employment characteristics of families. The most recent report, with annual averages for 2020, compares family employment during the coronavirus pandemic with the 2019 numbers. The data come from the Current Population Survey, which defines families as two or more people who live together and are related by birth, marriage, or adoption. 

The share of families with at least one unemployed member doubled between 2019 and 2020—rising from 4.9 to 9.8 percent—as the pandemic upended the job market. Hispanic families were most likely to have a family member unemployed in 2020 (14.3 percent), while white families were least likely (9.0 percent)...

Families with at least one family member unemployed in 2020 (and 2019)

Total families: 9.8% (4.9%)

Asian families: 10.9% (4.0%)

Black families: 13.4% (8.0%)

Hispanic families: 14.3% (6.6%)

White families: 9.0% (4.5%)

Note: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has long refused to distinguish non-Hispanic whites from the total white population in its data releases. Consequently, the white statistics shown here also include Hispanics who identify their race as white, which most do. It is likely that unemployment in families headed by non-Hispanic whites is even lower than the white data presented above. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families—2020

April Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment

The unemployment rate jumped to 14.7 percent in April—more than three times the 4.4 percent rate of March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the highest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression. But even this painful figure is an underestimate of the actual level of unemployment in April, as the BLS states in its Employment Situation news release. Here's why: a number of interviewers misclassified those who were unemployed due to the coronavirus pandemic as employed but absent from work. Adding the misclassified workers onto the unemployment roles would have increased the April unemployment rate by nearly 5 percentage points.

Keep this in mind as you take a look at April’s unemployment rates by educational attainment...

Unemployment rate of people aged 25 or older by education, April 2020 (and March 2020)
Not a high school graduate: 21.2% (6.8%)
High school graduate only: 17.3% (4.4%)
Some college/associate degree: 15.0% (3.7%)
Bachelor’s degree or more: 8.4% (2.5%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation—April 2020

Unemployment Rate Could Rise to 32.1%

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis are working furiously to measure the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. In the past few days, the St. Louis Fed has released one report after another estimating the dimensions of the economic crisis now facing the United States.

—The researchers have determined the number of Americans who work in close proximity to others and therefore must stop working to prevent the spread of coronavirus (27 million).
—They have calculated the percentage of workers at risk of unemployment because of the coronavirus (46 percent).
—They have tallied up the cost of unemployment insurance to tide those workers over (ranging from $57 billion to $642 billion).
—They have done a "back of the envelope" estimate of the unemployment rate by the end of the second quarter of 2020. Brace yourself. It could be as high as 32.1 percent.

For more details about these findings, click on the links below.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Fernando Leibovici, Ana Mara Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti, Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations; Charles Gascon, Covid-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?; Bill Dupor, The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits During a Pandemic; and Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter's Unemployment Rate

Nearly 1/3 of Least Educated in Labor Force Are "Underutilized"

Seventeen percent of the labor force is "underutilized," according to an analysis by the National Center for Education Statistics of data from the Adult Training and Education Survey, part of the 2016 National Household Education Surveys Program. The survey defines the underutilized as the unemployed, those who have a part-time job but would prefer full-time employment, and those who have a temporary job but would prefer a permanent position. The percentage of labor force participants who are underutilized is highest among the least educated...

Percent of labor force participants who are "underutilized" by education
32% of high school dropouts
21% of high school graduates only
18% of those with some college
16% of those with an associate's degree
11% of those with a bachelor's degree
11% of those with a graduate degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Relationship between Educational Attainment and Labor Force Underutilization

What Would You Do To Stay Employed?

Among the nation's employed adults, here are the percentages who would be willing to do the following to avoid being unemployed...

87% would be willing to learn new skills
74% would accept temporary employment
60% would accept a longer commute
56% would accept lower pay
40% would be willing to move within the United States
17% would be willing to move to another country

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 General Social Survey

Where Did All the Construction Workers Go?

That's the question asked by Census Bureau researchers in a Research Matters blog post. With the economy picking up steam, builders and contractors are reporting (anecdotally) some difficulty in finding construction workers, according to the researchers. What happened to all those housing bubble workers after the bubble burst?

Unfortunately, this story does not have a happy ending. After analyzing Job-to-Job Flows public-use data and zeroing in on those workers who stopped working for more than three months between 2006 and 2009, the researchers found that most of those workers had either abandoned the industry entirely or were still jobless long after the end of the Great Recession...

• about 40% eventually found another construction job
• about 33% eventually found work in another industry, but typically after more than a year without a job
• about 25% were still not employed as of the end of 2013

Source: Census Bureau, Research Matters Blog, Where Did All The Construction Workers Go?

Unemployed in the Past 10 Years

More than one-third of Americans (37 percent) have been unemployed for as long as a month at some point in the past 10 years, according to results from the 2014 General Social Survey. These are the percentages by generation...

Unemployed for as long as a month in past 10 years
Millennials: 55%
Gen Xers: 38%
Boomers: 30%

Note: In 2014, Millennials were 20 to 37, Gen Xers were 38 to 49, Boomers were 50 to 68.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Time Spent Looking for Work

Looking for work became a bigger job after the Great Recession, according to an analysis of American Time Use Survey data by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

On an average day in 2003-07 (before the Great Recession), 20 percent of the unemployed searched for a job. On an average day in 2008-12 (during and after the Great Recession), a larger 24 percent of the unemployed spent time looking for work.

The intensity of the job search varies by educational attainment. On an average day in 2008-12, only 17 percent of unemployed high school dropouts spent time looking for work versus 23 percent of those with a high school diploma or associate's degree and fully 35 percent of those with a bachelor's degree. Among those who looked for work on an average day, the time devoted to job search ranged from a low of 28 minutes among unemployed high school dropouts to 67 minutes for unemployed college graduates.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Job Search Before and After the Great Recession

The Experience of Long-Term Unemployment

More than one in five men (22 percent) have experienced long-term unemployment during their career, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics' analysis of panel survey data. Long-term unemployment is defined as 27 or more weeks without a job. This finding comes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, which has been tracking the experiences of people born from 1957 through 1964 for more than three decades. The cohort being tracked is the younger half of the baby-boom generation and now aged 48 to 56.

Long-term unemployment has affected some men more than others. Among non-Hispanic white men in the cohort, 19 percent had experienced a spell of long-term unemployment by 2010. The figure was more than twice as high among black men—41 percent had experienced long-term unemployment during their career. Only 10 percent of men with a bachelor's degree had been unemployment for more than half a year versus 25 percent of high school graduates and 40 percent of high school dropouts.

The average spell of long-term unemployment lasted 55 weeks and reduced men's earnings even years later. Four years after the first long-term unemployment spell, men's average hourly wages were 7 percent below what they had been four years before the unemployment began.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Long-Term Unemployment over Men's Careers

Homeownership Hurts Job Markets

What's that again? Homeownership hurts rather than helps the job market? That's what economists David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald discovered when analyzing state-level data on homeownership and unemployment: "High homeownership impairs the vitality of the labor market and slowly grinds out greater rates of joblessness," the authors find.

The higher the rate of homeownership, the greater a state's unemployment rate not the next year, but two to three years later. More homeownership also leads to fewer new businesses. Zoning might be one way areas of high homeownership discourage new business and suppress job growth. Another factor might be the NIMBY effect, in which homeowners fight business development, suppressing the labor market and creating future unemployment.

Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics, Does High Home-Onwership Impair the Labor Market? Working Paper 13-3, May 2013

Hard Times after High School

Among the 3.2 million young people who graduated from high school in 2012, about a third (or 1.1 million) did not enroll in college. Their unemployment rate as of October 2012...

Total: 34.4%
Men: 37.5%
Women: 29.9%

Blacks: 56.6%
Hispanics: 41.4%
Whites: 27.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Enrollment and Work Activity of 2012 High School Graduates

Unemployment among Recent College Graduates

How are recent college graduates doing? The Bureau of Labor Statistics wanted to find out, so it drilled down into the October 2011 school enrollment supplement to the Current Population Survey and examined the labor force experience of men and women who had recently earned a bachelor's or advanced degree.

There is some good news: The job shortage that confronted recent college graduates in the midst of the Great Recession has eased somewhat, although the current situation is a long way from the heady days of 2007. Among recent college graduates with a bachelor's degree, the unemployment rate climbed from 9.0 percent in 2007 to a peak of 17.6 percent in 2009. A smaller but still substantial 13.5 percent were unemployed in 2011.

Men were hit harder: Men who had recently graduated with a bachelor's degree saw their unemployment rate rise from 11.4 percent in 2007 to an astounding peak of 26.6 percent in 2009. This is in stark contrast to their female counterparts, whose unemployment rate climbed only from 7.3 to 10.9 percent during those years. The unemployment rate was 16.1 percent among men and 11.2 among women in 2011.

An advanced degree helps: Now that a bachelor's degree is as common as popcorn, having an advanced degree gives young adults a competitive edge in the labor market. Among recent graduates with an advanced degree, unemployment climbed from a tiny 3.1 percent in 2007 to a peak of 10.8 percent in 2010. In 2011, the rate had fallen to 8.6 percent (12.0 percent among men and 6.1 percent among women).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Recent College Graduates in the U.S. Labor Force: Data from the Current Population Survey, Monthly Labor Review, February 2013

Why Go to College?

There are three reasons for going to college, according to Richard Vedder, Christopher Denhart, and Jonathan Robe in their provocative policy paper, Why Are Recent College Graduates Underemployed?

Reason 1. To increase human capital and make workers more productive. (Probably overestimated, according to the authors, because "learning by doing is particularly underrated in the contribution it makes to raising the productivity of American workers.")

Reason 2. As a screening device for employers. (This is the crux of the matter. "The college degree is a signal to employers, and one they aggressively utilize," say the researchers. To an employer, a college degree means you're smarter and more persistent than the average person. How nice of you and your parents to bear the cost of this screening device.)

Reason 3. Because it's fun and good for you too. (The "country clubization" of higher education.)

Given the title of the paper, you know the authors do not look kindly on the "college for all" philosophy. In fact, they say, that philosophy explains why so many recent college graduates are underemployed. The U.S. labor force has 42 million employed college graduates and 29 million jobs that require a college degree (or should require one).

"We jokingly predict that colleges will offer a master's degree in Janitorial Studies within decade or two," conclude the authors, "and anyone seeking employment as a janitor will discover no one will hire unless proof of possession of such a degree is presented." 

Source: Center for College Affordability and Productivity, Why Are Recent College Graduates Underemployed?

Are Boomers in the Way?

The Great Recession drained the retirement savings of boomers, forcing many to work years longer than they had planned. Are these working boomers crowding young adults out of the labor force?

According to an analysis by Pew Economic Mobility Project, the answer is no: the greater the employment of boomers, the greater the employment and wages of young adults. As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. "Greater employment of older persons leads to better outcomes for the young," concludes the study.

Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project, When Baby Boomers Delay Retirement, Do Younger Workers Suffer?

Unemployed Young Adults by Country

The unemployment rate of 20-to-24-year-olds in the United States, at 14.6 percent in 2011, is well below the rate in Spain, Italy, France, and Sweden, but well above the rate in Japan, Germany, Australia, and Canada.

2011 unemployment rate of 20-24-year-olds
43.2% in Spain
26.5% in Italy
20.6% in France
18.3% in Sweden
16.5% in United Kingdom
14.6% in United States
12.1% in New Zealand
10.1% in Canada
8.4% in Australia
8.1% in Germany
7.7% in Japan

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, International Comparisons of Annual Labor Force Statistics, Adjusted to U.S. Concepts, 16 Countries, 1970-2011

Youth Underemployment

Nearly one in three (32%) Americans aged 18 to 29 is underemployed, according to a Gallup survey--meaning they are unemployed or part timers who want full-time work. Among people aged 30 or older, the rate of underemployment is a much smaller 13 to 14 percent.

Source: Gallup, One in Three Young U.S. Workers Are Underemployed

Young Adults Looking for Work

Among young adults who graduated from high school in 2011, more than one in four (26.7 percent) are looking for a job. This stunningly high unemployment rate reveals the struggle to earn a living among the nation's youngest workers. Here are the unemployment rates for 2011 high school graduates by characteristic...

Enrolled in 2-year college: 23.7%
Enrolled in 4-year college: 18.6%
Not enrolled in college: 33.6%

Among 2010-11 high school dropouts, the unemployment rate is 38.4 percent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Enrollment and Work Activity of High School Graduates

Median Duration of Unemployment

The unemployed who found a job in 2011 had been job hunting for a median of 10.0 weeks. This was slightly shorter than the 10.4 weeks of 2010 but more than twice the 4.0 weeks of 2000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Search of the Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment, Monthly Labor Review, March 2012

African Americans and the Great Recession

Black workers have been especially hurt by the Great Recession and the weak economic recovery. The black unemployment rate was 15.8 percent in 2011 compared with 7.9 percent for whites and 11.5 percent for Hispanics.

The question is, why have blacks been hit so hard? A new study by the Department of Labor has the answers. First, blacks have been disproportionately affected by what the report characterizes as "drastic layoffs in government." Blacks are 30 percent more likely than non-blacks to work in the public sector. Nearly one in five blacks (19.3 percent) works for federal, state, or local government versus 14 percent of whites and 10 percent of Hispanics.

Second, once unemployed, it has been more difficult for blacks to find another job because they are more likely to live in areas with relatively high unemployment rates. Fully 63 percent of unemployed blacks versus 39 percent of unemployed non-blacks live in areas with an unemployment rate of 10 percent or more. That explains why blacks are more likely than whites or Hispanics to have been out of work for 27 weeks or more (defined as the long-term unemployed). Nearly half of unemployed blacks (49.5 percent) are long-term unemployed versus 42 percent of whites and 40 percent of Hispanics.

That explains the bad news. The good news is that the worst may be over for black workers. The number of employed blacks grew by 700,000 between January 2011 and January 2012.

Source: Department of Labor, The African-American Labor Force in Recovery