Record Low Percentage without Health Insurance

The percentage of Americans without health insurance fell to a record low of 11.0 percent in the first quarter of 2016, reports Gallup. This is 6.1 percentage points lower than in the fourth quarter of 2013, just before the Affordable Care Act's individual health insurance mandate took effect. Among adults aged 18 to 64, the percentage without health insurance fell from 20.8 to 12.9 percent between 2013 and 2016...

Type of health insurance coverage among adults aged 18 to 64, 1st quarter 2016

(and percentage point change since 4th quarter 2013)

Current or former employer: 43.4% (–0.8)

Direct purchase: 21.8% (+4.2)

Medicaid: 9.4% (+2.5)

Medicare: 7.6% (+1.5)

Military/veterans: 5.2% (+0.6)

Union: 2.6% (+0.1)

Other: 4.4% (+0.9)

No insurance: 12.9% (–7.9)

Source: Gallup, U.S. Uninsured Rate at 11.0%, Lowest in Eight-Year Trend

College Graduates by Generation

Among Americans aged 25 or older, the percentage of men and women with a bachelor's degree is about equal, according to the Census Bureau: 33 percent of women and 32 percent of men have a bachelor's degree. Differences emerge by generation. Millennial and Gen X women are more likely than their male counterparts to have a bachelor's degree. Boomer men and women are about equally likely to have graduated from college. Among older Americans (aged 70 or older), men are much more likely than women to have a college degree.

Percentage of people aged 25 or older with a bachelor's degree
Millennials: 33% of men and 39% of women
Generation X: 33% of men and 37% of women
Baby Boomers: 32% of men and 31% of women
Older Americans: 30% of men and 20% of women

Note: Millennials are aged 25 to 38; Gen Xers are 39 to 50; Boomers are 51 to 69.
Source: Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2015

Younger Adults Are Streaming Video, Dropping Cable

Do you remember when cell phones were a blip on the radar screen and landline phones reigned supreme? Just 21 percent of households reported spending on cell phone service during an average quarter of 2000, and 94 percent spent on landlines. It took until 2010 before the cell phone market surpassed the landline market. In 2014, 69 percent of households spent on cell phone service during an average quarter and a smaller 47 percent spent on landline. The transformation from landline to cell occurred incrementally, with households headed by younger adults adopting cell phones first and older householders playing catchup.

It's happening again. This time, television is being transformed as streamed and downloaded video replaces cable and satellite television service. Between 2010 and 2014, average annual household spending on streamed and downloaded video grew faster than spending on any other entertainment product or service—rising from $2.11 to $17.80, after adjusting for inflation. Behind the growth in spending is the expansion of the customer base: the percentage of households purchasing streamed and downloaded video during an average quarter grew from just 1.4 percent in 2010 to 13.1 percent in 2014, according to a Demo Memo analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey data.

Following the pattern of cell phone adoption, streaming and downloading video is most common among householders under age 45. These are also the age groups with the biggest percentage-point declines in spending on cable and satellite television service. Cable and satellite customers still far outnumber streaming and downloading customers even in the younger age groups, but that's likely to change...

Percent of households purchasing streamed and downloaded video (and cable/satellite television service) during average quarter of 2014
Under age 25: 16.5% (39.1%)
Aged 25 to 34: 19.1% (58.9%)
Aged 35 to 44: 18.3% (70.0%)
Aged 45 to 54: 15.3% (73.4%)
Aged 55 to 64: 9.5% (75.7%)
Aged 65-plus: 5.0% (78.4%)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Who Are the Remaining Uninsured?

Among Americans under age 65, nearly 33 million still lacked health insurance in 2015 despite the Affordable Care Act. Greater outreach efforts could cover 12 million of the uninsured, says the Urban Institute—those who are eligible for Medicaid/Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and those whose incomes are low enough to qualify for generous tax credits when they purchase Marketplace plans. It will be much harder to reach the remaining 21 million uninsured because they are ineligible (undocumented immigrants), live in states that did not expand Medicaid, or are unwilling to pay the cost of coverage. Here is the status of the 33 million nonelderly uninsured...

Greater outreach efforts could reach these uninsured
9,132,000 (27.7%) eligible for Medicaid or CHIP
3,224,000 ( 9.8%) eligible for tax credits; income is below 200% of poverty level

Difficult or impossible to reach these uninsured
5,233,000 (15.9%) not eligible for subsidies because they are undocumented immigrants
4,109,000 (12.5%) not eligible for subsidies because income is above threshold
3,799,000 (11.5%) not eligible for Medicaid/CHIP because state did not expand Medicaid
3,740,000 (11.4%) not eligible for tax credits because employer offers health insurance plan
3,708,000 (11.3%) eligible for tax credits; income is above 201% of poverty level

The study examines which efforts will be most effective in reaching the 12 million likely to enroll in Medicaid or Marketplace plans.

Source: Urban Institute, Who Are the Remaining Uninsured, and What Do Their Characteristics Tell Us About How to Reach Them?

Living Alone by Generation

People who live alone accounted for 28 percent of the nation's households in 2015. By generation, this is the percentage of households headed by people who live alone...

Single-person households as a percent of total households by generation
Millennials: 20%
Generation X: 19%
Baby Boomers: 30%
Older Americans: 49%

Note: Millennials are under age 39; Gen Xers are 39 to 50; Boomers are 51 to 69.
Source: Census Bureau, 2015 Current Population Survey

Household Income Stable in February 2016

Median household income in February 2016 stood at $57,129, according to Sentier Research, which was not significantly different from the January 2016 median, after adjusting for inflation. The February 2016 median was 3.7 percent higher than the February 2015 median, however, and 10.2 percent above the $51,857 median of August 2011, which was the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"We continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," reports Sentier's Gordon Green. "Relatively low energy prices have contributed significantly to increases in real median household income." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.
  
Median household income in February 2016 was 2.8 percent higher than the median of June 2009, which marked the end of the Great Recession. It was 0.9 percent higher than the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. The February 2016 median was still 0.3 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for February 2016 was 99.7 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: February 2016

Big-City Counties Continue to Attract Migrants

The nation's most urban counties grew by a substantial 5.3 percent between 2010 and 2015, faster than any other type, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2015 county population estimates by Rural-Urban Continuum. Counties in smaller metros grew at a slower rate, and those in rural areas lost population. Every component of population change is driving the growth of the most urban counties...

Natural increase is greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2015, the rate of natural increase (defined as births minus deaths) was 2.8 percent in counties ranking 1 on the Rural-Urban Continuum (in metro areas with populations of 1 million or more). This was a higher rate of natural increase than any other type of county on the continuum. Counties ranking an 8 or 9 (the most rural) had a negative rate of natural increase, with deaths outnumbering births.

International migration is greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2015, the rate of net international migration was 2.3 percent in counties ranking 1 on the Rural-Urban Continuum. International migration was positive in every type of county, but the rate was lower in less urban counties and was lowest (0.2 percent) in counties ranking 8 or 9.

Domestic migration is greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2015, the rate of net domestic migration was positive only for the most urban counties,  ranking 1 or 2 on the Rural-Urban Continuum. Less urban and rural counties lost more domestic migrants than they gained.

Trends in Household Spending on Streamed and Downloaded Video

Explosive growth is the only way to describe the trend in average household spending on streamed and downloaded video, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Average annual household spending on streamed and downloaded video grew 26-fold between 2005 and 2014, after adjusting for inflation—from $0.68 to $17.80.

In 2005—the first year in which streamed and downloaded video appeared on the Consumer Expenditure Survey—only 0.4 percent of households bought streamed and downloaded video during an average quarter. By 2010, the figure had climbed to 1.4 percent. By 2014, it had soared to 13.1 percent. Streamed and downloaded video ranked a lowly 31st in popularity among entertainment products and services in 2010, based on the percentage of households buying the item during an average quarter. In 2014, it ranked 6th.

To see where this trend is going, compare spending on streamed and downloaded video to spending on cable and satellite television service—which streaming and downloading are in the process of replacing. During an average quarter of 2014, 70 percent of households spent on cable or satellite television service, devoting an annual average of $723 to the service. Explosive growth in household spending on streamed and downloaded video is likely to continue.

Percentage of households spending on streamed and downloaded video during an average quarter (and average annual household spending, in 2014 dollars)
2014: 13.1% ($17.80)
2010:  1.4% ($2.11)
2005:  0.4% ($0.68)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Big-City Counties Growing the Fastest (Still)

The nation's most urban counties continue to grow faster than any other county type according to the Census Bureau's 2015 county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2015 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents strong metro growth (the bigger, the better) and continuing rural decline.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,000-plus counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2015 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2015 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 5.3% for rank 1 counties, in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 3.9% for rank 2 counties, in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 2.6% for rank 3 counties, in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.1% for rank 4 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
5. 1.7% for rank 5 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
6. -0.8% for rank 6 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
7. -0.5% for rank 7 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
8. -1.1% for rank 8 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop less than 2,500
9. -1.2% for rank 9 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro, urban pop less than 2,500

The most urban counties (a 1 on the scale) grew the fastest between 2010 and 2015. The most rural counties (8 and 9 on the scale) experienced the biggest declines. A look at annual rates of population change by Rural-Urban Continuum shows declines in every year between 2010 and 2015 for counties ranking 6, 7, 8, and 9 on the continuum. Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum grew by more than 1 percent in every year. 

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, Population Estimates, County Total: Vintage 2015

The Retirement Plan Problem

Houston, Atlanta, Kansas City, Miami...we have a problem. The problem is the lack of employer-sponsored retirement plans for about half the nation's private-sector workers. Because so many workers do not have access to a retirement plan, reports the Center for Retirement Research, one-third of households will end up with no retirement plan coverage at all during their worklife. Many others will have inadequate savings because they moved in and out of coverage as they changed jobs over the years.

Although the Obama administration proposed "automatic IRAs" in 2009, federal legislation has yet to be enacted. Consequently, some states (California, Connecticut, Illinois, and Oregon) are taking the initiative and mandating automatic IRAs. The Center for Retirement Research report examines these state initiatives and other attempts to broaden retirement plan participation. "A national Auto-IRA plan would be a much more efficient way to close the coverage gap," the report concludes.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, State Initiatives to Cover Uncovered Private Sector Workers

Credit Scores by Housing Tenure

How do Americans' credit scores differ by housing tenure? The Urban Institute decided to find out by analyzing credit bureau and property records data. Researchers Wei Li and Laurie Goodman divided the adult population into six tenure types, listed below in order of size...

1. Renters without a mortgage in past 16 years (39% of adults)
2. Owners with a mortgage now (27% of adults)
3. Owners with a mortgage in past 16 years but not now (12% of adults)
4. Renters with a mortgage in past 16 years but not now (8% of adults)
5. Owners without a mortgage in past 16 years (9% of adults)
6. Renters with a mortgage now (5% of adults)

The researchers then examined the demographics, credit use, and credit scores of each tenure type. Owners with a mortgage in the past 16 years but no mortgage now (12 percent of adults) had the highest credit score, a median of 785. Renters without a mortgage in the past 16 years (39 percent of adults) had the lowest credit score—a median of 619. Notes the study: "52 percent of all renters have a credit score below 650, generally not high enough to qualify for a mortgage."

Source: Urban Institute, Comparing Credit Profiles of American Renters and Owners

Attitudes Toward Marriage and Childbearing

Cohabitation and out-of-wedlock childbearing, already commonplace in the United States, may become the norm in the years ahead if the attitudes of the nation's younger adults are any indicator. According to the 2011-13 National Survey of Family Growth, most adults under age 45 think cohabitation and out-of-wedlock childbearing are okay. Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements...

A young couple should not live together unless they are married
Men who disagreed: 75%
Women who disagreed: 71%

It's okay to have and raise children when the parents are living together but not married
Men who agreed: 76%
Women who agreed: 75%

It's okay for an unmarried female to have and raise a child
Men who agreed: 69%
Women who agreed: 78%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Trends in Attitudes about Marriage, Childbearing, and Sexual Behavior: United States, 2002, 2006-2010, and 2011-2013

Retirement Confidence in 2016

Nearly two out of three workers say they are somewhat (42 percent) or very (21 percent) confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement, according to the 2016 Retirement Confidence Survey. This is up from the 51 percent who were somewhat (38 percent) or very (13 percent) confident in 2013, the year confidence hit bottom. Only 35 percent of workers in 2016 are "not too" or "not at all" confident, down from 49 percent who felt that way in 2013. 

Perhaps behind the growing confidence is a change in retirement plans. Seventeen percent of workers in 2016 said they had adjusted their expected age of retirement in the past year, with most adjusting it upwards. Over the past 25 years, the percentage of workers who expect to retire at age 66 or older has more than tripled...

Percentage of workers who expect to retire at age 66 or older

2016: 37%

2011: 36%

2006: 25%

2001: 16%

1991: 11%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2016 Retirement Confidence Survey

Top 10 Occupations: iGeneration

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of the iGeneration (aged 16 to 20 in 2015)...

iGeneration share of workers (average = 5%) 
1. Lifeguards and other recreational protective service workers: 56.4%
2. Counter attendants, coffee shops and cafeterias: 54.2%
3. Hosts and hostesses, restaurants and coffee shops: 49.8%
4. Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers: 34.1%
5. Dining room, cafeteria, and bartender helpers: 32.8%
6. Miscellaneous entertainment attendants: 29.1%
7. Food prep workers, including fast food: 28.6%
8. Helpers, installation, maintenance, and repair: 28.6%
9. Cashiers: 27.1%
10. Dishwashers: 26.6%

Click here for the top 10 occupations among Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Gun Ownership: Urban vs. Rural

Only 32 percent of the nation's adults live in a household with guns, according to the 2014 General Social Survey, down from 49 percent in 1973. The percentage of adults who live in a household with guns is much higher in rural areas...

Percent of adults with a firearm in their household, 2010-14
14.8% in the central cities of the 12 largest metros
19.2% in the suburbs of the 12 largest metros
19.4% in the central cities of the 13th to 100th largest metros
29.0% in the suburbs of the 13th to 100th largest metros
43.7% in other urban areas
55.9% in rural counties

Source: National Opinion Research Center, General Social Survey: Trends in Gun Ownership in the United States, 1972-2014

Attitudes toward Same-Sex Relationships

In the past decade, younger adults have become increasingly open-minded about same-sex relationships, according to a National Center for Health Statistics report. Same-sex relationships are not only okay with younger generations, but increasingly so as Millennials replace Gen Xers in the under-45 age group.

Among women under age 45, the percentage who think sexual relations between two adults of the same sex are all right climbed from 42 to 60 percent between 2002 and 2011-13. Their male counterparts (who were not surveyed in 2002) also are becoming more open minded. In 2011-13, 49 percent agreed that same-sex relations are all right, up from 40 percent in 2006-10. Even in the under-45 age group, however, there's an age gradient in the percentage who agree that same-sex relations between two adults of the same sex are all right...

Women who agree
Aged 15 to 24: 65%
Aged 25 to 34: 62%
Aged 35 to 44: 54%

Men who agree
Aged 15 to 24: 52%
Aged 25 to 34: 48%
Aged 35 to 44: 46%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Trends in Attitudes about Marriage, Childbearing, and Sexual Behavior: United States, 2002, 2006-2010, and 2011-2013

Top 10 Occupations: Millennials

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Millennials (aged 21 to 38 in 2015)...

Millennial share of workers (average = 38%) 
1. Food and tobacco roasting machine operators: 65.7%
2. Helpers, extraction workers: 65.0%
3. Occupational therapy assistants and aides: 64.3%
4. Dancers and choreographers: 64.2%
5. Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks: 62.3%
6. Sailors and mariner oilers: 61.8%
7. Bartenders: 61.2%
8. Wind turbine service technicians: 60.0%
9. Emergency medical technicians and paramedics: 59.9%
10. Derrick, rotary drill, and service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining: 58.8%

Click here for the top 10 occupations among Boomers and Gen Xers.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Household Income Stable in January 2016

Median household income in January 2016 stood at $57,288, according to Sentier Research, which was not significantly different from the December 2015 median, after adjusting for inflation. The January 2016 median was 4.0 percent higher than the January 2015 median, however, and 10.3 percent above the $51,945 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"There has been a general upward trend in median household income since the post-recession low point reached in August 2011," reports Sentier. "Many monthly changes were not statistically significant. By the summer of 2014 however, that uneven trend became dominated by a series of significant monthly increases." According to Sentier's Gordon Green, low energy prices have contributed significantly to the rise in real median household income.  

Median household income in January 2016 was 2.9 percent higher than the median of June 2009, which marked the end of the Great Recession. It was 1.0 percent higher than the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. The January 2016 median was still 0.2 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for January 2016 was 99.8 (January 2000 = 100.0). 

Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: January 2016

Who Actually Votes?

Americans are even less likely to vote than it appears. That's what Pew Research Center discovered when it asked its American Trends Panel respondents whether they had voted in the 2014 midterm election and then attempted to match those who said they "definitely voted" with commercially available national voter files. Sixteen percent of respondents who said they "definitely voted" had no record of doing so. The demographic segments least likely to vote are also the ones most likely to say they voted when they did not...

• Young adults: among 18-to 29-year-olds who say they "definitely voted" in the 2014 midterm election, fully 35 percent had no record of doing so. The figure was a smaller 17 percent among 30-to-49-year-olds, 15 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds, and just 7 percent among people aged 65 or older.
• Hispanics: among Hispanics who say they "definitely voted" in the 2014 midterm election, a substantial 27 percent had no record of doing so. Among Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites, the figure was a smaller 15 percent. 

These findings suggest that voting levels measured by the Voting and Registration Supplement to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS), fielded every two years, are overstated—particularly for young adults and Hispanics. The Census Bureau notes the discrepancy in its report Who Votes? Congressional Elections and the American Electorate: 1978-2014: "Voting rates from the sample surveys such as the CPS are higher than official results." But, says the bureau, "the CPS remains the most comprehensive data source available for examining the social and demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections."

In other words, the CPS is the best we've got. According to the CPS, 20 percent of 18-to-29-year-old citizens and 27 percent of Hispanic citizens reported voting in the 2014 midterm election. Pew's analysis suggests that actual voting rates for these two important segments of the electorate are in fact much lower.

Source: Pew Research Center, Many Americans Say They Voted, But Did They?

What Do College Students Carry in their Wallets?

They carry cash, according to a Sallie Mae survey of college students aged 18 to 24. Eighty-six percent of students say they have cash in their wallet. Almost as many—85 percent—carry a debit card. A smaller 56 percent have a credit card.

The Sallie Mae survey probes the financial attitudes, behavior, and knowledge of students at technical schools, two-year colleges, and four-year institutions. According to the survey, 52 percent have student loans, 23 percent have credit card debt, 13 percent have vehicle loans, 9 percent have a mortgage, and 7 percent have medical debt.

Twenty-four percent of college students say they are excellent money managers, and another 41 percent say they are good at it. Only 29 percent say they are just average, and 6 percent rate themselves as not very good or poor. Interestingly, those who consider themselves excellent at managing their money are less likely than those who rate their skills more modestly to correctly answer a three-question financial literacy test.

Source: Sallie Mae, Majoring in Money: How American College Students Manage Their Finances