Wednesday, August 30, 2006

The Decade of Retreat

If the 1990s is known as the Decade of Affluence because household incomes reached a peak, then these years may well be called the Decade of Retreat—especially for the American worker. Hardly a day goes by without more evidence of workers falling behind.

The Current Population Survey data, released yesterday, show a signficant decline in the earnings of men and women who work full-time (see post below). Wages and salaries now account for a smaller share of the gross domestic product than at any time since 1947, according to an analysis by the New York Times. Not only are wages falling, but the percentage of Americans with employment-based health insurance is slipping, and those with insurance must pay more for it. In fact, the value of employee benefits is failing to keep pace with inflation, according to the Times.

Americans are feeling the pain. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center, 59 percent of the public thinks today's workers must work harder to earn a decent living. Fifty-six percent say employers are less loyal to workers. Fifty-one percent think retirement benefits are not as good as they used to be. A comparison of the 2006 Pew results with surveys taken in 1989 and 1997 shows job satisfaction dropping sharply among workers aged 50 or older and growing discontent with employee benefits.

The quality of work life may not be alone in retreat. Tom Smith, director of the General Social Survey (GSS) at the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center, concludes in a study that "Americans on average are worse-off now than in the past." He came to this conclusion after comparing 2004 with 1991 GSS results. In both years, respondents were asked to identify the frequency and severity with which they encountered 66 different problems ranging from the death of a spouse to the loss of a job and the inability to pay for health insurance. The percentage of Americans experiencing at least one problem increased over the years from 89.1 to 91.5 percent. The average number of problems experienced grew from 4.03 to 4.34. Smith found significant increases in problems such as being unemployed, being pressured to pay bills, being unable to afford food, lacking medical insurance, and being hospitalized.

What factors might explain an erosion in the quality of life in the United States? One might be the aging of the population, which leads to more health problems. Another might be technological change and the consequent globalization of the workforce. The Pew survey shows how ambivalent Americans feel about these changes. Sixty-nine percent think email and other modern communication technologies have helped workers. But an even larger 77 percent think outsourcing—which is one consequence of the communications revolution—has hurt American workers.

Smith's study sheds some light on why things may be turning south, examining the demographic segments with the most and least troubles. The biggest change in the distribution of troubles was by education. In 1991, the lowest-educated group experienced 1.33 problems for every 1 problem experienced by the best-educated group. In 2004, the ratio had grown to 1.79 to 1. The growing gap between the haves and the have-nots in an increasingly competitive world may explain the Decade of Retreat.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Here Are the 2005 Numbers

At 10:00 this morning, the Census Bureau unveiled the much anticipated snapshot of our economic wellbeing, the results of the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement. Taken in March of each year, the supplement asks a large, nationally representative sample of Americans about their economic status in the previous year. Here are the numbers unveiled by the Census Bureau this morning.

HOUSEHOLD INCOME UP
Median household income rose 1.1 percent between 2004 and 2005, to $46,326. This is the first significant increase in median household income since 1999, according to the Census Bureau. But the 2005 figure is still well below the level of 2000, and the gains were limited to a few select demographic segments. By age, only householders aged 65 or older saw their median household income rise significantly between 2004 and 2005—up by 2.8 percent. Behind the gain is higher labor participation among the elderly. By income, changes were not significant at the 90 percent confidence interval, but it is interesting to note that all but the highest income quintile lost ground.

MEN'S EARNINGS DOWN
Among men working full-time, median earnings fell 1.8 percent between 2004 and 2005, to $41,386 after adjusting for inflation.

WOMEN'S EARNINGS DOWN
Among women working full-time, median earnings fell 1.3 percent between 2004 and 2005, to $31,858 after adjusting for inflation.

HEALTH INSURANCE DOWN
The percentage of people without health insurance climbed from 15.6 to 15.9 percent between 2004 and 2005. The number of uninsured grew to 47 million. The percentage of the population covered by employment-based health insurance fell from 59.8 to 59.5 percent.

POVERTY STABLE
The percentage of people living in poverty held steady at 12.6 percent in 2005, not significantly different from the 12.7 percent rate of 2004.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Few Are Trapped in the Housing Bubble

The recent downturn in the housing market has everyone ringing the alarm bells in a frenzy of concern. Let's get real. The latest data from the 2005 American Housing Survey show that, in fact, few homeowners will be vulnerable to a pause or even a slip in housing prices. Here are the numbers on who will be hurt.

Homeowners without a fixed-rate mortgage: Of the nation's 46 million homeowners with a mortgage, 9 million (19 percent) do not have a fixed rate of interest. Instead, they have adjustable rate mortgates, balloon mortgages, or some combination. They will be hurt by rising interest rates.

Homeowners with little or no equity in their home: Of the nation's 46 million homeowners with a mortgage, 5 million (12 percent) owe 90 percent or more of the value of their home. They will be hurt by falling prices.

As the housing market finds a new level of stability, it is important to keep in mind that many homeowners (39 percent) have no mortgage at all, most homeowners with mortgages pay a fixed interest rate, and those with mortgages owe only 55 percent of the value of their home—in other words, they have enough equity to weather a substantial price drop.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Who Will Get Hurt by Housing?

Yesterday the National Association of Realtors announced a decline in sales of previously owned homes for the month of July, and today the Census Bureau reports that new home sales also fell last month. Although the declines were expected by analysts, both exceeded predictions, heightening fears of trouble ahead for homeowners and the economy.

Who will be hurt by a downturn in the housing market? One vulnerable group is young adults. The homeownership rate of householders under age 25 has grown faster than that of any other age group over the past five years. In 2005, 26 percent of householders under age 25 owned their home, up from 22 percent in 2000. The homeownership rate of householders aged 25 to 29 ranked second in growth during those years, rising from 38 to 41 percent. Of the 3.3 million new homeowners in the U.S., more than one in five are under age 30.

In years past, these young adults would have been renting apartments and could have benefited from the transition to a buyer's market. But with housing prices rising fast and lenders marketing tempting interest-only loans, many took the plunge. Now they may have a hard time staying afloat.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Back to School

A Census Bureau press release notes the following astonishing facts about the nation's elementary and high school students:

—41 percent are minorities.
—22 percent have at least one foreign-born parent.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Back to School, 2006-2007

Saturday, August 12, 2006

How Much Elbow Room?

Later this year, the U.S. population will top 300 million people. The last time we passed a 100 million mark was in 1967. The United States is a big country, and we have a long way to go before we are as densely populated as most other countries of the world. In 2005, there were 80 people per square mile in the United States, according to the Population Reference Bureau. That's up from 57 people per square mile in 1967.

While it's getting more crowded around here, we still have a lot more elbow room than most other countries. Among the world's 200-plus nations, we rank around the 25th percentile in population density. China, the world's most populous country, has a population density of 353 people per square mile. India fits 869 people into each of its square miles. Japan has even more, with 876. Those countries seem empty in comparison to the most densely populated nation in the world, Bangladesh, with 2,594 people per square mile.

Americans have more space to themselves than do most Europeans. France has 285 people in each of its square miles. Germany is even more tightly packed with 598, and the United Kingdom tops it with 635. Some nations are emptier than we are, including Brazil (56) and Russia (22). The Canadians, with only 8 people per square mile, and the Australians with an even smaller 7, would feel downright claustrophobic in our crowds.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of households owning dogs: 36
Percentage of households owning cats: 32

Number of dogs per household: 1.6
Number of cats per household: 2.1

Source: American Veterinary Medical Association, U.S. Pet Ownership and Demographics Sourcebook, 2002, as reported in the Census Bureau's 2006 Statistical Abstract

Saturday, July 29, 2006

A Father's Delight

It is sometimes surprising what the government asks Americans to reveal about themselves. And lucky for us demographers, Americans seem willing to tell all. The latest example: A survey taken by the National Center for Education Statistics asks fathers a series of questions to determine how much "delight" they get from their children. And the answer is—a lot.

Called the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, the survey's purpose is to test the effects of family, school, community, and individual variables on children's development. Biological fathers living with children born in 2001 were asked about their feelings towards their child, creating indicators of "delight." The results show how involved today's fathers are in child care, both emotionally and physically.

Two-thirds of fathers think it's more fun to get their child something new than to get something for themselves. An equally large percentage of fathers carry pictures of their child with them wherever they go, and 69 percent talk a lot about their child to friends and family. Three out of four fathers always find themselves thinking about their child. Eighty-five percent of fathers think holding and cuddling their child is fun, and 84 percent strongly agree that fatherhood is a highly rewarding experience.

Most fathers strongly agree that they should be as heavily involved as the mother in the care of their child. Seventy-nine percent rate themselves as a "very good" or "better than average" father. Only 2 percent say they have "some trouble" being a father.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Bet You Didn't Know

Percent of adults who read books every day: 32

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Adult Literacy

Thursday, July 20, 2006

How Americans Get to Work

Drive alone: 79 percent
Carpool: 9 percent
Mass transit: 4 percent
Work at home: 3 percent
Walk: 2 percent

Source: 2005 American Housing Survey

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

The Cost of College

Paying for college is more painful in some states than others. The Census Bureau's State and Metropolitan Area Data Book: 2006 shows just how much it hurts. One year of tuition, room, and board at a four-year public university ranges from a high of $15,109 in New Jersey to a low of $7,494 in Louisiana. In other words, it costs twice as much to go to college in New Jersey as it does in Louisiana. But household incomes are also much higher in New Jersey, reducing the burden on state residents.

Here's a better way to calculate the pain of paying for college—determine what proportion of median household income is required to pay for one year of in-state tuition, room, and board at a four-year public university. Nationally, the figure is 24.6 percent, with median household income at $43,564 in 2003 and one year of college at a public university costing $10,720. In many states the proportion is much higher, with Vermont (33.8 percent), Pennsylvania (33.2 percent), and South Carolina (33.0 percent) the most expensive. In five states, one year of college requires less than 20 percent of household income. Wyoming (19.6 percent), Colorado (19.3 percent), Alaska (19.3 percent), Hawaii (17.2 percent), and Utah (16.8 percent) have the lowest college costs relative to household income.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Food for Thought

Asian American are much less likely than the average American to be overweight—only 31 percent of Asians are overweight, well below the 59 percent majority of all Americans who are overweight.

Here's why Asians may be better able to control their weight. An analysis of household spending published in the Monthly Labor Review reveals the top three items on which Asian households spend the most in the grocery store: fresh vegetables, seafood, and fresh fruit. A nutritionist's dream! In contrast, here are the top three grocery items on which everyone else spends the most: baked products, beef, and dairy.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Bigger Houses

It's easy to keep up with housing trends if you know where to look. The Census Bureau keeps tabs on new housing and provides lots of historical data as well. Here are some recently released figures for new single-family houses sold in 2005, with comparisons to 1995.

Median square feet
2005: 2,235
1995: 1,880

Percentage with cental air conditioning
2005: 92
1995: 83

Percentage with three or more bathrooms
2005: 25
1995: 14

Percentage with four or more bedrooms
2005: 42
1995: 34

Median sales price
2005: $240,900
1995: $133,900

Saturday, July 08, 2006

A Record: Births to Unmarried Women

The number of births to unmarried women climbed to an unprecedented 1,470,189 in 2004, according to a recent report from the National Center for Health Statistics. Of the 4,112,052 births in 2004, fully 35.8 percent were born to unmarried woman. The percentage of babies born to single women has grown steadily for decades. Here's a look at the trend:

Percent of births to unmarried women:
1950: 3.9
1960: 5.3
1970: 10.7
1980: 18.4
1990: 28.0
2000: 33.2
2004: 35.8

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Cool Research Link: Attitudes Online

Want to know how many are against the death penalty for murder, how Americans feel about banning the Bible in public schools, or whether Americans think homosexuals should be allowed to teach at the nation's colleges? Now you can find out by delving into the National Opinion Research Center's highly respected General Social Survey (GSS) online. This survey, fielded every two years, has been collecting attitudinal data since 1972.

Until now, tapping into GSS results has been difficult, limited to academic researchers with the expertise to run statistical programs to unlock the database. To the rescue comes the Computer Assisted Survey Methods Program at the University of California, Berkeley, creating web-based programs for analysis of survey data. Its online application allows you to choose a GSS question and get an answer in table and chart format. You can explore attitudes and how they have changed from as far back as 1972 up to 2004. You can also explore attitudes by demographic segment, including gender, age, race, and political party.

How many Americans are against the death penalty for murder? Thirty-two percent in 2004, up from 21 percent in 1990. Only 36 percent of Americans want to ban the Bible in public schools, but among college graduates the 51 percent majority thinks the Bible should be banned. And 65 percent of Americans think it's OK for homosexuals to teach at the nation's colleges and universities—up from 53 percent thirty years ago.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Bet You Didn't Know

Percent change in U.S. population since 1960: 62
Percent change in U.S. licensed drivers since 1960: 125
Percent change in U.S. passenger vehicles since 1960: 212

Source: Federal Highway Administration

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Are We Eating Ourselves into Disability?

A look at the latest disability statistics reveals a disturbing figure: nearly one in ten Americans has trouble walking or using stairs, according to the new report on disability released by the Census Bureau. A substantial 11 percent of people aged 15 or older have difficulty with these basic physical tasks. Among people aged 25 to 64, who cannot claim age as an excuse for their disability, a still substantial 8 percent—or nearly one in 12—has trouble walking or using stairs.

Difficulties walking and climbing stairs are the most common disabilities, and Americans' growing girth certainly plays a role in turning these basic functions into daily challenges. With apparently no end in sight to the American weight gain, these difficulties are likely to have a growing impact on shopping malls, theme parks, museums, public transportation, and disaster preparedness.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

The End of Retirement

"The years 1965–1999 were the closest thing to economic 'golden years' ever seen by this nation for those moving into retirement, and they will likely never be matched again for the bulk of the population unless savings behavior changes radically."

Those chilling words were issued last month by Dallas Salisbury, president of the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute, in support of the PBS Frontline documentary "Can You Afford to Retire?" The documentary examined how prepared baby boomers are for retirement (answer: NOT) as defined benefit pension plans become scarce and savings remain shockingly low for the minority who participate in defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s. If you haven't seen the Frontline show yet, you can watch it online through the PBS website.

The documentary concludes with the ominous warning that the retirement of the baby-boom generation is, in fact, the end of retirement because most boomers will find they cannot retire and maintain any semblance of their middle-class standard of living. Consequently, most will be forced to work to make ends meet. What are the political implications of the impending downward spiral of today's comfortable middle class? What will happen when disability overtakes working boomers in old age? How will younger generations respond to the growing destitution of their aging parents?

Stay tuned, because that appears to be the next installment in the boomer narrative.

Friday, June 16, 2006

Friday, June 09, 2006

New Orleans Before and After

Most of the time, demographic change occurs at a plodding pace. Some even say demography is dull. But a look at the before and after demographics of the New Orleans metropolitan area is anything but dull. To witness demographic upheaval on this magnitude in the United States is a once in a lifetime opportunity—or at least we hope so.

Following Hurricane Katrina, FEMA designated 117 counties as disaster areas. In a special effort to determine just what happened to the population in those areas, the Census Bureau took its 2005 American Community Survey, fielded each year throughout the U.S., and broke it into two pieces in the 117 disaster counties—the eight months before Katrina (January through August 2005) and the four months following Katrina (September through December 2005). The results of the analysis are available in detail here. Below are some of the more astonishing changes in the New Orleans metropolitan area during 2005.

Population (in the 8 months) before Katrina: 1,190,615
Population (in the 4 months) after Katrina: 723,830
New Orleans lost a stunning 466,785 people, or 39 percent of its population.

Civilian labor force before Katrina: 599,172
Civilian labor force after Katrina: 342,625
New Orleans lost more than a quarter million workers, or 43 percent of its labor force.

People enrolled in school before Katrina: 312,899
People enrolled in school after Katrina: 170,269
The number of students in metropolitan New Orleans plunged 46 percent.

Blacks as a share of the metropolitan area before Katrina: 37 percent
Blacks as a share of the metropolitan area after Katrina: 22 percent
The white share of the population grew from 59 to 73 percent.

Percentage of people living in poverty before Katrina: 16.9 percent
Percentage of people living in poverty after Katrina: 12.7 percent
Median household income climbed from $39,793 to $43,447.

Households with no vehicles available to them before Katrina: 13.6 percent
Households with no vehicles available to them after Katrina: 5.8 percent

P.S. It is impressive that the Census Bureau is collecting this type of information at all. It is remarkable that the bureau is flexible enough to change procedures in midstream and provide us with a database of such historic importance.