Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Fewer State and Local Government Workers

The number of full-time workers employed by state and local governments fell by 203,321 between 2009 and 2010, according to the Census Bureau.

Source: Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll: 2010

Most Support Birth Control Coverage

Percent who support the new federal requirement that private health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control and other preventive services for their female patients, by age...

Total: 66%
18-29: 76%
30-49: 70%
50-64: 61%
65-plus: 51%

Source: Kaiser Health Tracking Poll--August 2011

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Three Housing Markets

With millions of Americans underwater on their mortgage, the nation's housing market has been split into three distinct segments: homeowners with mortgages or loans on their property--many of them underwater, renters, and homeowners who own their home free and clear.

According to the 2010 census, the 45 percent plurality of the nation's 117 million households are homeowners with a mortgage or loan on their property. Another 35 percent are renters, and 20 percent are homeowners who own their home free and clear. These segments vary in size by state.

Homeowners with mortgages In eight states, more than half of households are homeowners with mortgages or loans on their home. Utah ranks number one in this category, with 54 percent of the state's households headed by homeowners with a mortgage. The other states in which the majority of households are homeowners with mortgages are Maryland, Minnesota, Delaware, New Hampshire, Colorado, Indiana, and Virginia. The state with the smallest percentage of encumbered households is New York, at 36 percent.

Renters New York tops the list in the percentage of households that rent. The 47 percent plurality of households in New York are renters--most of them in the New York metropolitan area. The only other states in which renters outnumber the other two categories (homeowners with and homeowners without a mortgage) are California (44 percent) and Hawaii (42 percent). West Virginia has the fewest renter households, at 27 percent.

Homeowners free and clear West Virginia is the state with the largest percentage of homeowners who own their home free and clear, at 35 percent. Other states in which at least one in four households are homeowners without mortgages are: Mississippi, North Dakota, Louisiana, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, New Mexico, Alabama, and Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Iowa. Not exactly the nation's hot spots.

Here is the distribution of households by homeownership and mortgage status for all 50 states and the District of Columbia...

      with       no
      mort    mort      rent
U.S. total 45.4 19.7 34.9
Alabama 44.2 25.5 30.3
Alaska 43.4 19.7 36.9
Arizona 47.6 18.4 34.0
Arkansas 40.9 26.0 33.0
California 43.5 12.5 44.1
Colorado 50.9 14.6 34.5
Connecticut 49.7 17.8 32.5
Delaware 51.7 20.3 27.9
DC 33.8 8.2 58.0
Florida 45.1 22.2 32.6
Georgia 48.9 16.8 34.3
Hawaii 40.8 16.9 42.3
Idaho 49.5 20.4 30.1
Illinois 48.3 19.1 32.5
Indiana 50.3 19.5 30.1
Iowa 47.0 25.1 27.9
Kansas 45.2 22.5 32.2
Kentucky 44.0 24.7 31.3
Louisiana 39.8 27.5 32.8
Maine 47.4 23.9 28.7
Maryland 53.2 14.3 32.5
Massachusetts 46.2 16.1 37.7
Michigan 49.6 22.5 27.9
Minnesota 53.2 19.9 27.0
Mississippi 40.7 28.9 30.4
Missouri 47.1 21.7 31.2
Montana 41.8 26.2 32.0
Nebraska 44.6 22.6 32.8
Nevada 46.2 12.6 41.2
New Hamp 51.4 19.5 29.0
New Jersey 47.7 17.7 34.6
New Mexico 42.7 25.8 31.5
New York 35.7 17.6 46.7
N. Carolina 46.5 20.2 33.3
North Dakota 37.3 28.1 34.6
Ohio 47.3 20.3 32.4
Oklahoma 41.9 25.4 32.8
Oregon 44.6 17.5 37.8
Pennsylvania 45.2 24.4 30.4
Rhode Island 44.8 15.9 39.3
S. Carolina 45.8 23.5 30.7
South Dakota 41.5 26.6 31.9
Tennessee 44.9 23.3 31.8
Texas 41.8 21.9 36.3
Utah 53.8 16.7 29.6
Vermont 48.2 22.5 29.3
Virginia 50.2 17.0 32.8
Washington 47.5 16.4 36.1
West Virginia 38.4 35.0 26.6
Wisconsin 47.5 20.6 31.9
Wyoming 44.0 25.3 30.8

Source: 2010 Census

American Dream: College

Percentage of parents who want their children to get a college degree: 91%.

Source: Census Bureau, A Child's Day: 2009 (Selected Indicators of Child Well-Being)

Monday, August 29, 2011

The Underground Economy

The underground--or informal--economy, once thought to be a relic of the third world, may be growing in the first world thanks to globalization, according to a report by the Urban Institute.

The "informal" economy is defined as economic activity that operates outside the tax and regulatory systems. It includes black market and illegal activity as well as legal work for which income is not reported. How many people do you know who have a little business on the side? That's the informal economy.

In the United States, the informal economy may generate 5 to 10 percent of the GDP, notes the Urban Institute report. Some academics estimate that 11 to 20 percent of American workers operate at least partly in the informal economy--a proportion that has been growing along with the immigrant population.

Cell Phones and the Internet

Eighty-three percent of Americans aged 18 or older own a cell phone, according to Pew Internet & American Life Project. How they use their phone varies greatly by age, in part because smartphone ownership varies by age. Here is the percentage of all cell phone owners who access the Internet using their phone:

18-29: 64%
30-49: 54%
50-64: 26%
65-plus: 10%

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Americans and their Cell Phones

Sunday, August 28, 2011

More Interracial Marriage among Young

Percent of marriages that are interracial or Hispanic/non-Hispanic, by age of currently married women in their first marriage...

under 25: 13%
25 to 34: 11%
35 to 44: 10%
45 to 54: 7%
55 or older: 4%

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2009

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Air Conditioning by Region

Fully 87 percent of homes in the United States are now equipped with air conditioning--either central air or window units. Here is the percentage of households with air conditioning by region in 1980 and 2009:

2009 1980
Northeast 86 49
Midwest 91 58
South 98 74
West 65 36

Source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Air conditioning in nearly 100 million U.S. homes

Friday, August 26, 2011

Marriage and Divorce: The Numbers

You would think that a nation so heatedly debating who has a right to marry and who doesn't would keep very good records of who is marrying and who isn't. But you would be wrong. The federal government stopped collecting data from the states on the incidence of marriage and divorce in 1996. We have been flying blind since then and talking heads have filled the vacuum.

Until now. Yesterday, the Census Bureau released the first of what should be annual survey-based estimates of marriage and divorce from the American Community Survey. These releases will provide marriage, divorce, and widowhood rates for men and women by state (highest rate of divorce is in the South--by far; highest rate of marriage is in the West): and profile the demographic characteristics of people who are marrying or divorcing.

Who is marrying? Among the 2.2 million women who married in 2009, the largest share (38 percent) had a bachelor's degree or more education. The 39 percent plurality had a household income of $75,000 or more. The 69 percent majority were employed. Fifty-two percent were homeowners, and 63 percent lived in single-family homes. Bottom line: marriage has become an upscale event, with the educated and affluent most likely to tie the knot.

Source: Census Bureau: Marital Events of Americans: 2009

Thursday, August 25, 2011

2010 Census Finds Lower Homeownership Rates

The 2010 census found far lower homeownership rates in every age group than the Census Bureau had estimated for the same time period based on the Housing Vacancy Survey. The census count of homeowners and renters by age for the nation as a whole was released this morning. Take a look at how the census numbers compare with the survey estimates:

   census    survey       diff
Total 65.1 66.9 -1.8
<25 16.1 22.9 -6.8
25-34 42.0 44.4 -2.4
35-44 62.3 65.0 -2.7
45-54 71.5 73.5 -2.0
55-64 77.3 79.0 -1.7
65-plus 77.5 80.5 -3.0
65-74 80.2 82.0 -1.7
75-plus 74.5 78.9 -4.4

The census numbers are, of course, the far more accurate figures. The Housing Vacancy Survey methodology will have to be revised and once that is accomplished all homeownership estimates going forward will use census numbers as a base. The Mystery of the Young Homeowner has been solved--it was a methodological error!

Who Eats Out?

Most of us, every day. This is the percentage who eat (or drink) away from home on an average day by household income...

Total aged 20 or older: 67%
Less than $25,000: 53%
$25,000 to $74,999: 68%
$75,000 or more: 78%

Source: USDA, What We Eat in America, 2007-2008

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Women Judges

Percentage of presidential appointees to U.S. Courts of Appeals judgeships who are women, by president...

Johnson:  2.5%
Nixon:  0%
Ford:  0%
Carter:  19.6%
Reagan:  5.1%
Bush I:  18.9%
Clinton:  32.8%
Bush II:  25.4%
Obama:  33.3%

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Middle Income Households Cut Restaurant Spending

During the Great Recession, the average household cut its spending on food, especially eating out. A USDA analysis of who cut their spending the most reveals that middle-income households (in the middle 20 percent of the income distribution, with an average income of $46,012) cut their spending more than lower- or higher-income households.

Between 2006 and 2009, middle-income households cut their spending on groceries by 6 percent, after adjusting for inflation. They cut their spending on restaurant meals by a much larger 21 percent. No wonder restaurants were feeling the pain.

How did they manage to reduce their spending on both eating out and groceries? By buying lower-cost foods and shopping at lower-cost stores. A record 810 new private-label brands appeared on grocery store shelves in 2009, reports the USDA's Economic Research Service. Sales of packaged leafy greens fell relative to sales of less-expensive unpackaged greens. The market share captured by nontraditional food outlets (such as warehouse clubs and supercenters) also climbed, reaching 30 percent in 2009.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Spending Adjustments During Recessionary Times, Amber Waves, September 2011

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Stock Market Jitters

As if we need something else to worry about: Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets? (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).

Last Place Aversion

No one wants to be in last place. In fact, they so do not want to be in last place that those close to but not at the bottom will fight policies intended to improve the lives of the ones in last place, according to a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Explains a lot of the crazy.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Religious Identification

Percentage of Americans who identify themselves as Protestant, by age...

18 to 44: 38%
45 to 64: 53%
65-plus: 59%

Source: General Social Survey

Cash in a Pinch

Could you come up with $2,000 within 30 days to pay an unexpected bill? Most Americans could not do this. Yet financial shocks of this size are not uncommon.

According to a study by the Center for Financial Security at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, people are reluctant to save for a rainy day because they think they will have more "financial slack" in the future. In other words, they think it will be easier in the future to come up with cash for an emergency, so they do not save ahead. This is an illusion, say psychologists. In the future, your finances will feel just as tight as they do today.

Source: Center for Financial Security, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Coming Up with Cash in a Pinch: Emergency Savings and Its Alternatives

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Debt of the Foreclosed

According to a study by the Federal Reserve Board, individuals who have had foreclosure proceedings begin against them had the following characteristics...

Average age: 42
Median credit score: 562
Median mortgage balance: $152,901
Median credit card balance: $3,498
Median auto loan balance: $15,728

Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Post-Foreclosure Experience of U.S. Households, Raven Molloy and Hui Shan, 2011-32

Saturday, August 20, 2011

What Happens After Foreclosure?

A new study by the Federal Reserve Board examines what happens to households after a foreclosure. Based on credit report data from the FRBNY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel--a nationally representative 5 percent random sample of Americans with credit files and their household members--the study tracked the experiences of individuals following the start of a foreclosure. The study compared the experiences of those with a foreclosure (the Foreclosed) with a demographically similar group of individuals who did not experience a foreclosure (the Comparables).
  • Mobility: 23 percent of the Foreclosed moved within a year versus 12 percent of Comparables.
  • Household size. About one-third of the Foreclosed saw their household size increase and another one-third saw their household size shrink after foreclosure.
  • Household composition. Only 18 percent of the Foreclosed were living with the same people two years later versus 47 percent of Comparables. Twelve percent of the Foreclosed had moved in with an adult 20 or more years older (likely a parent). Among Comparables, only 5 percent were living with an older adult two years later.
  • Housing type. A substantial 76 percent of the Foreclosed were living in a single-family house two years later versus 93 percent of Comparables. Only 22 percent of the Foreclosed had moved into a multi-family unit, but this was much greater than the 3 percent of Comparables who had moved into an apartment building.
The study's authors conclude that while there are some adverse affects of foreclosure, most who experience the start of a foreclosure are still in the same house two years later. Apparently, many foreclosures are resolved through refinancing or other means. Most of the Foreclosed who move end up in equivalent housing--a single family home in a similar neighborhood.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Post-Foreclosure Experience of U.S. Households, Raven Molloy and Hui Shan, 2011-32

Friday, August 19, 2011

Another Way to Look at American Workers

Among America's 139 million workers, number whose primary job duty is to...

Manage: 15 million
Count: 6 million
Think: 8 million
Talk: 4 million
Teach: 9 million
Create: 3 million
Heal: 11 million
Protect: 3 million
Cook: 8 million
Clean: 5 million
Help: 5 million
Sell: 15 million
Organize: 18 million
Grow: 1 million
Build: 7 million
Fix: 5 million
Make: 8 million
Move: 8 million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employed Persons by Occupation