Deaths Exceeded Births in 25 States in 2020

A new record was set in 2019. Deaths exceeded births in five states. Never before had so many states experienced negative natural increase, reports Kenneth M Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire. 

But wait. The numbers for 2020 make the 2019 record look quaint. Deaths exceeded births in half of all states in 2020, according to Johnson's analysis of data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The 25 states with more deaths than births in 2020 can be found in every region of the country including Arizona and Oregon in the West, Missouri and Wisconsin in the Midwest, Florida and South Carolina in the South, and Connecticut and Massachusetts in the Northeast. 

The trend could intensify in 2021. With births continuing to decline and Covid deaths in 2021 exceeding the 2020 number, Johnson predicts another year in which many states will experience negative natural increase, further reducing population growth in the United States. 

Source: Kenneth M. Johnson, Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

No Medical or Dental Visits in Past Year

One in five Americans have not visited a doctor or a dentist in the past year, according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). In an examination of trends in medical and dental visits, the MEPS report analyzes data from 2003 through 2018. Over those 15 years, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who did not see a dentist or a doctor in a year's time, with the figure rising from 18.9 percent in 2003 to 19.8 percent in 2018. 

Distribution of the population by dental and/or medical visits, 2018

37.1%: both medical and dental visits

34.4%: medical visits only

19.8%: neither dental nor medical visits

  8.6%: dental visits only

Males (24.1 percent) are more likely than females (15.8 percent) to have had neither a dental or a medical visit in the past year. By race and Hispanic origin, Hispanics are most likely not to have seen a doctor or dentist (31.0 percent), followed by non-Hispanic Blacks (25.3 percent), non-Hispanic others (23.9 percent), and non-Hispanic whites (14.6 percent). Note: The category non-Hispanic other includes Asians and American Indians. 

More than one in four people aged 18 to 64 (25.3 percent) did not have a medical or dental visit in 2018 compared with only 6.4 percent of those aged 65 or older. Among preschoolers (aged 0 to 5), the figure is 11.5 percent. Among school-aged children (aged 6 to 17), a larger 16.8 percent had not seen a doctor or dentist in the past 12 months. 

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Trends in the Number and Percentage of the Population with Any Dental or Medical Visits, 2003–2018

Two-Year Colleges Thrashed by Economy, Pandemic

College enrollment in the United States is on the decline. The number of undergraduates in the nation's colleges reached an all-time high in 2011 as widespread unemployment in the aftermath of the Great Recession boosted enrollment, especially at two-year schools. Since then, undergraduate college enrollment has fallen by 17 percent, with two-year schools getting the worst of it. 

The biggest drivers of enrollment at two-year colleges are current events—such as recessions and pandemics. When unemployment is high, two-year college enrollment grows. When jobs are plentiful or a pandemic sweeps the country, two-year enrollment falls. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, enrollment at two-year colleges surged. At the 2010 peak, 5.9 million students were enrolled at two-year schools. Since that peak, enrollment at two-year schools has fallen by 37 percent. Between 2019 and 2020, two-year schools saw the biggest decline in their enrollment on record—a loss of 588,000 students.

Two-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 3.7 million

2019: 4.3 million

2010: 5.9 million (peak year)

2006: 4.3 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2010 to 2020: -36.6%

Four-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 10.1 million

2019: 10.3 million

2016: 11.2 million (peak year)

2006: 9.6 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2016 to 2020: -9.6%

While current events have some influence on enrollment at four-year colleges, demographics play a bigger role. Enrollment of undergraduates at four-year schools did not peak until 2016, just as the number of 18-to-24-year-olds crested in the U.S. population. Since the 2016 peak year, enrollment has fallen just 10 percent—less than a third of the drop at two-year schools. The pandemic has had only a modest impact on four-year schools. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of undergraduates enrolled at four-year colleges fell by 2 percent versus the 14 percent decline at two-year schools.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's School Enrollment Data

Conflict between Urban and Rural

How much conflict is there between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas? When Pew Research Center asked this question in 16 different countries, a median of 23 percent said the conflicts are strong/very strong. In the United States, a larger 42 percent reported either very strong (12 percent) or strong (30 percent) conflicts between urban and rural populations. Here are the U.S. numbers...

Perceived level of conflict between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas

12% very strong

30% strong

48% not very strong

  9% none

The United States ranks third among the 16 countries in the percentage of the public that perceives strong/very strong conflict between urban and rural. In France, 45 percent of the public feels this way. In South Korea, the figure is 43 percent. 

The perception of urban-rural conflict differs by political affiliation in the U.S. "People on the left (53%) are more likely than those on the right (38%) to say there are strong or very strong conflicts between people who live in urban areas and people who live in rural areas," Pew reports.

Source: Pew Research Center, Diversity and Division in Advanced Economies

Big Drop in School Enrollment in 2020

The number of Americans aged 3 or older enrolled in school fell from 76 million in 2019 to 73 million in 2020—a decline of 2.9 million. Behind the decline was the coronavirus pandemic, which not only turned learning virtual but also kept many from going to school at all. 

Most of the decline in school enrollment occurred among the youngest students. The number of children enrolled in nursery school or kindergarten fell by 1.5 million between 2019 and 2020, accounting for 54 percent of the overall decline in enrollment. The enrollment rate of 3-to-4-year-olds plunged from 54 to just 40 percent—the first time since 1996 that the enrollment rate of the age group has been below 50 percent. 

Percentage of 3-to-4-year-olds who were enrolled in nursery school/kindergarten

2020: 40.3%

2019: 53.7%

Enrollment in the nation's colleges fell from 18.3 million in 2019 to 17.7 million in 2020. Two-year colleges accounted for most of the decline. Two-year schools lost 588,000 students between 2019 and 2020, the largest drop in two-year college enrollment in the Census Bureau's data series. Four-year college enrollment fell by 172,000—less than the 301,000 decline between 2018 and 2019. Graduate schools bucked the trend, their enrollment growing by 145,000 in 2020. 

School enrollment in 2020 (and percent change since 2019)

Total enrolled: 73,222,000 (-3.8%)

Nursery/kindergarten: 7,242,000 (-17.6%)

Elementary school: 32,046,000 (-1.9%)

High school: 16,259,000 (-0.8%)

College: 17,674,000 (-3.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2020—Detailed Tables

Labor Force Rates of 65+ Projected to Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force. 

On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.

On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...

Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30

	2030	2020	2010	2000	pp change, 2000-30
Aged 65 to 69	39.6%	33.0%	31.5%	24.5%	+15.1
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	18.9	18.0	13.5	+10.3
Aged 75-plus	11.7	8.9	7.4	5.3	+6.4

By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older. 

Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970. 

Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections Overview and Highlights, 2020–30

Most Americans Are Worried about Climate Change

Fully 65 percent of Americans aged 18 or older are worried about climate change, according to a Gallup survey. Forty-three percent are worried "a great deal" and another 22 percent are worried "a fair amount." 

Worries about climate change are not limited to the young or the educated. The majority of every demographic segment is worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. Take a look...

Percent who are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change

Total: 65%

Men: 59%

Women: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 78%

Aged 30 to 49: 67%

Aged 50 to 64: 57%

Aged 65-plus: 60%

No college: 66%

Some college: 61%

College graduate: 65%

Postgraduate: 71%

Only one segment of the population is indifferent to climate change. Just 32 percent of Republicans say they are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. 

Source: Gallup, Are Americans Concerned about Global Warming?

29% of Americans Are Afraid of Dying

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public about its fears, asking a representative sample of the population how afraid it is of a long list of unfortunate events, types of people, insects, animals, natural disasters, and even the paranormal. The latest survey included 95 potentially fearful things. Here are some of the more interesting fear comparisons...

• Of the 95 different fears measured, the American public is least afraid of animals. Only 5 percent of the public reports being afraid/very afraid of animals.
• 43% of the public is afraid/very afraid of white supremacists. This fear ranks 23rd among the 95 fears measured in the 2020-21 survey. Many more people are afraid of white supremacists than Black Lives Matter (15%).
• 20% of people are afraid/very afraid of murder hornets. 
• A substantial 12% of the public is afraid/very afraid of needles. Could this explain vaccine hesitancy?
• Fear of strangers grips more than one in ten Americans (11%). Perhaps these fearful people are also the ones who are afraid/very afraid of immigrants (6%).
• 9% are afraid/very afraid of whites no longer being the majority in the U.S.
• Nearly one-third of the public (31%) is afraid/very afraid of heights. About half as many (16%) are afraid of small, enclosed spaces.
• Half of Americans (49%) are afraid/very afraid of climate change.  
• Only 29% of Americans are afraid/very afraid of dying. The fear of dying ranks 53rd on the list—just  above the fear of public speaking. 

Source: Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

The 10 Things Americans Fear the Most

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public, probing our greatest fears. Students at the university analyze the findings and determine which events Americans are most afraid of. Here are the latest results—the 10 greatest fears of Americans, according to the 2020-2021 survey (the University fielded the survey at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021)...

Percent who say they are afraid/very afraid, 2020-21

1. Corrupt government officials: 79.6%

2. People I love dying: 58.5% 

3: A loved one contracting coronavirus: 58.0% 

4. People I love becoming seriously ill: 57.3% 

5. Widespread civil unrest: 56.5% 

6. A pandemic or a major epidemic: 55.8% 

7. Economic/financial collapse: 54.8% 

8. Cyber-terrorism: 51.0%

9. Pollution of oceans, rivers and lakes: 50.8%

10. Biological warfare: 49.3%

You might recall that a lot was happening in 2020. So, how did the fears of Americans change since the previous survey in 2019? Obviously, coronavirus was not one of the top 10 fears prior to the most recent survey, since no one had even heard of it. In 2019, fear of a pandemic ranked only 31st on the list of greatest fears, according to Chapman political science and philosophy student Roxy Amirazizi. In the latest survey, fear of a pandemic had climbed all the way up to 6th place. 

Fear of economic collapse and biological warfare made the top-10 list for the first time in 2020-21. 

Fear of a loved one dying rose from fifth to second place.

Fear of widespread civil unrest climbed from the 20th greatest fear in 2019 to number 5 in 2020-21. This is due, says Amirazizi, "to the general increase in protests and demonstrations throughout the past year, as well as the attacks on the Capitol that occurred during the time of the survey." Those who identify themselves as extremely liberal are much more likely to fear civil unrest (75.8 percent) than those who identify themselves as extremely conservative (43.2 percent).

Source: Chapman University, Roxy Amirazizi, Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

What Parents Think about School Efforts to Limit Covid

The battle lines are drawn as parents face off across the country over Covid mitigation measures. Schools are in the crosshairs.

Almost half of parents with children aged 12 to 17 (48 percent) say their child has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor fielded September 13-22. Almost as many parents (40 percent) say they will wait and see on the vaccine, or they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

Among parents of 5-to-11-year-olds, only 34 percent say they will get their child vaccinated as soon as the vaccine is authorized for the age group. Almost as many—32 percent—say they will wait and see. Another 31 percent say they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

In the midst of these divisions, the nation's schools are struggling to create a safe physical environment for the education of the nation's 53 million school-aged children. It is a daunting task. Not only do parents disagree about the need for vaccinations but also about the need for masks...

Parents with children in K-12 schools

58% think all students and staff should be required to wear masks

35% think no one should be required to wear masks

4% think only unvaccinated students and staff should be required to wear masks

Among vaccinated parents, 73 percent think schools should require all students and staff to wear masks. Among unvaccinated parents, 63 percent think no one should be required to wear masks. What are the schools doing about masks? The 69 percent majority of parents say their child's school requires all students and staff to wear masks. Another 28 percent of parents say their child's school does not have any mask requirements. 

Despite the deep divisions among parents, fully 66 percent think their child's school is doing "about the right amount" to limit the spread of Covid. Twenty-one percent say their child's school is not doing enough, and 11 percent say their child's school is doing too much. 

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Vaccination Trends among Children and Covid-19 in Schools

The Married Have Dramatically Lower Death Rates

Want to lower your chances of dying? Get married. That's one interpretation of a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of death rates by marital status. Take a look...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population aged 25 or older by marital status, 2019

   747.0 deaths among the married

1,324.0 deaths among the divorced

1,423.2 deaths among those who have never married

1,627.0 deaths among the widowed

People who have never married as well as the divorced and widowed are just about twice as likely to die in a given year than people who are married. Don't forget, these are age-adjusted figures, a calculation which controls for the age distribution of each population—such as the older average age of widows and the younger average age of the never married.  

Not only is the overall death rate much lower for the married, but the death rate is lower for all 10 leading causes of death. Among the 10 leading causes of death, the biggest difference in death rates between the married and the unmarried is for unintentional injuries, a category that includes drug overdoses. The NCHS reports that the death rate for unintentional injuries is about three times higher for the unmarried than for the married. Cancer has the smallest disparity in death rates between the married and the unmarried, with cancer death rates for the unmarried 29 to 39 percent higher than for the married. 

Not only are death rates lower for the married, but the gap has been growing. Between 2010 and 2019, the death rate for married people fell 11 percent, NCHS reports. The rate fell only 3 percent for the divorced and the never married during those years. For the widowed, the death rate increased 4 percent between 2010 and 2019. 

What accounts for the dramatically lower death rate of married people? "Health research has persistently demonstrated lower mortality for married adults compared with unmarried adults," states the NCHS. "The mortality advantage for married adults has been attributed to either selectivity in entering marriage (that is, healthier people are more likely to marry) or health-protective effects of marriage, or a combination of the two."

Keep this in mind the next time your spouse nags you about taking your pills or calling a doctor.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Death Rates by Marital Status for Leading Causes of Death: United States, 2010–2019

Exciting Life or a Calm Life?

Would you rather live an exciting life or a calm life? That's the question Gallup asked representative samples of the public in 116 countries in partnership with the Wellbeing for Planet Earth Foundation. You might be happy to know that the overwhelming majority of the public in almost all of the surveyed countries would rather live a calm life. 

Overall, 72 percent of respondents in the surveyed countries prefer calm to excitement. Only 16 percent opted for excitement and another 10 percent said they wanted both. In the U.S. and Canada, the figures were 75 percent for calm, 22 percent for excitement, and 3 percent for both. 

Georgia is the only country in which the majority of the public says it would choose excitement over calm. In Vietnam, equal numbers opted for excitement and calm. 

The pandemic may have something to do with the overwhelming preference for calm across the world. The pandemic's "extraordinary circumstances may have made living a calm life a more appealing prospect for many people than it would be otherwise," Gallup concludes, "especially given the ambiguous or complicated good represented by excitement." 

Source: Gallup, The World Prefers a Calm Life to an Exciting Life