January 6: Insurrection, Protest, or Unfortunate Event?

Was it an insurrection, a protest, or an unfortunate event? That's the question asked by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll in a recent survey. 

"When it comes to the events on January 6th, when a crowd entered the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, and disrupted the election certification process, which of the following best reflects your thoughts?" Overall, the 49 percent plurality of Americans call it an insurrection. A smaller 25 percent believe "it was a political protest protected under the first amendment." A wishy washy 19 percent say "it was an unfortunate event but in the past, so no need to worry about it anymore." Here are the percentages who believe it was an insurrection by demographic characteristic... 

"It was an insurrection and a threat to democracy" (percent agreeing)

95% of Biden supporters

89% of Democrats

66% of college graduates

61% of people who live in the Northeast

61% of big city residents

59% of Gen Z/Millennials

56% of suburban residents

53% of women

52% of nonwhites

51% of small city residents

50% of people who live in the West

49% of whites

49% of older Americans (75-plus)

48% of Boomers

47% of people who live in the South

45% of men

44% of people who live in the Midwest

43% of small town residents

42% of Latinos

39% of those without a college degree

39% of Gen Xers

31% of rural residents

10% of Republicans

  8% of Trump supporters

When asked about the Select Congressional Committee's hearings to investigate the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, the 62 percent majority of Americans believe the investigation is appropriate. Thirty-five percent call it a witch hunt. 

Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: One Year Since the Unrest at the U.S. Capitol, January 2022

New Census Bureau Surveys Will Track Impact of Covid-19 on American Households and Businesses

Shortly after the Great Recession commenced in December 2007, the Federal Reserve Board realized it had a problem. The Feds had just finished interviewing respondents for the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances when the economy went into a tailspin. The triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is the premier source of information on the wealth of American households. The Feds knew the results of the 2007 survey would be woefully out of date before they were even tabulated. What was a government agency charged with steadying the nation's financial wellbeing to do?

Be nimble, of course. Nimble describes the next steps taken by the Federal Reserve Board. The Feds went back into the field in 2009 to reinterview those who had participated in the 2007 survey. In doing so, they collected invaluable historical data in the midst of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression.

Fast forward to today. The country faces another crisis that threatens not only our health but also our economy. Now it's the Census Bureau's turn to be nimble, and it is rising to the challenge. The bureau is launching two new surveys—the Household Pulse Survey and the Small Business Pulse Survey—to assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the nation's households and businesses. The goal of the Household Pulse Survey is "to measure various sectors impacted by Covid-19: employment status, consumer spending, food security, housing, education disruptions and dimensions of physical and mental wellness." The goal of the Small Business Pulse Survey is to collect "information on location closings, changes in employment, disruptions in the supply chain, the use of federal assistance programs, and expectations concerning future operations." The data from these surveys will be produced and disseminated in near real-time and made available to the public each week.

This is a heads-up. If you receive an email from the Census Bureau asking you to respond to the Household Pulse Survey or the Small Business Pulse Survey, take a moment to admire the nimbleness of this large government agency. Tell the bureau how things are going. You will be doing your patriotic duty by fulfilling "the urgent need for accurate, frequent data at this crucial moment in America's history."

Source: Census Bureau, Pulse Surveys, New Census Survey Provide Near Real-Time Info on Households, Businesses during Covid-19

Furloughed Workers Are Owed $4.7 Billion

The government shutdown is now in its 34th day, with an estimated 800,000-plus furloughed workers missing their paychecks. Just who are these federal workers? Sentier Research, which produces a monthly median household income series, analyzed the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to determine the characteristics of furloughed federal government employees. Here are a few of the findings...

• 56% of furloughed workers are men, 44% are women.
• Furloughed workers have median earnings of $67,000.
• 38% of the households of furloughed workers include children.
• Among the 74% of households with a furloughed worker who own their home, 82 percent have a mortgage. Those with a mortgage have an average monthly mortgage payment of $1,600. The nation's furloughed workers’ cumulative monthly mortgage payment is $752 million.

Furloughed workers are now owed $5,600 each, Sentier estimates, or a total of $4.7 billion.

Source: Sentier Research, Furloughed Workers

Americans Are More Afraid, Survey Finds

Americans are increasingly afraid. This is one of the most striking findings from the 2018 Chapman University Survey of American Fears. This year as in past years, the number one fear—mentioned by the largest share of the public—is fear of corrupt government officials. But the percentage of Americans who say government corruption scares them has climbed, rising from 61 to 74 percent between 2016 and 2018.

Corruption is not the only thing Americans are increasingly frightened about, Chapman University reports. Many things are scaring them more. In fact, all of the top 10 fears in 2018 scare more than half the public. In 2016, most of the top 10 fears scared only about one-third of the public.

Top 10 fears of 2018 (percent saying they are afraid)
1. Corrupt government officials: 74%
2. Pollution of oceans rivers, and lakes: 62%
3. Pollution of drinking water: 61%
4. Not enough money for the future: 57%
5. Someone you love will become seriously ill: 57%
6. People you love dying: 56%
7. Air pollution: 55%
8. Extinction of plant and animal species: 54%
9. Global warming and climate change: 53%
10. High medical bills: 53%

Another trend Chapman University sees in the list of fears is the rise of environmental concerns. Five of the top 10 fears of 2018 are environmental. In 2016, the number of environmental concerns in the top 10 list was zero.

Source: Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2018

Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

Only 44 percent of Americans have a positive image of the federal government, according to a Gallup survey. The percentage varies by political party: 30 percent of Republicans have a positive image of the federal government versus 59 percent of Democrats. Here are the positive percentages by age...

Positive image of the federal government
Aged 18 to 29: 58%
Aged 30 to 49: 43%
Aged 50 to 64: 38%
Aged 65-plus: 40%

Source: Gallup, Americans' Views of Socialism, Capitalism Are Little Changed

Who Wants Private Health Insurance?

Most Americans now believe it is the responsibility of the federal government to ensure all Americans have health insurance, finds a Gallup survey, up from 45 percent who felt that way just one year ago. But there are big differences in attitudes by age: fully 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds think it's the federal government's responsibility compared with only 38 percent of the elderly, who are universally covered by the federal government's Medicare system.

When Gallup asked the public whether it would prefer a government-run health insurance system or one based on private insurance, the 55 percent majority still favors private rather than public. Americans aged 65 or older are the ones most likely to favor a private health insurance system, despite the fact that they are covered by a public plan...

Percent who would rather have a private health insurance system
Aged 18 to 29: 45%
Aged 30 to 49: 56%
Aged 50 to 64: 58%
Aged 65-plus: 63%

Source: Gallup, In U.S., 51% Say Government Should Ensure Healthcare Coverage

Generations Disagree on Best Way to Promote Economic Growth

When asked which of two alternatives is the best way to promote economic growth in the United States, young (aged 18 to 29) and old (aged 65 or older) disagree...

1. Spend more on education and the nation's infrastructure, and raise taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses to pay for that spending (percent saying this is best way)...
     Young: 62%

     Old: 40%

2. Lower taxes on individuals and businesses and pay for those tax cuts by cutting spending on some government services and programs (percent saying this is best way)...
     Young: 35%

     Old: 52%

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Economic Insecurity, Rising Inequality, and Doubts about the Future: Findings from the 2014 American Values Survey

The Health Insurance Statistics Problem

There's a reason why economists are invited to testify before Congress and fêted at White House events while demographers are relegated to a warren of offices in the basements of beltway buildings. Economists are Big Picture people. They get it. Demographers are spreadsheet people. They don't.

The demographer problem explains why the "technicians" at the Census Bureau decided now was the time to introduce a new way to measure health insurance coverage—just as the Affordable Care Act goes into effect, just as the statistics collected by Gallup, Rand, the Urban Institute, and other organizations begin to show a jump in health insurance coverage. The Census Bureau's health insurance estimates for 2013 and onward will not be comparable with 2012 and earlier. Those crazy demographers.

Yes, yes, demographers have their reasons. The director of the Census Bureau explained their reasons after the news broke in the New York Times—the years of research, the tests, the results. Too bad that during all those years none of the technicians looked up from their spreadsheets long enough to see the Big Picture—the politics, the media, the nation's need for a story.

"The Census Bureau, the authoritative source of health insurance data for more than three decades, is changing its annual survey so thoroughly that it will be difficult to measure the effects of President Obama's health care law," explained the New York Times. Improved methodology is important, demographers would argue, but sometimes the Big Picture is even more important.

Dwellr

That's no typo in the title of this blog post. Dwellr is a new Census Bureau app that shows you the characteristics of your current location based on GPS coordinates and searches for the best places for you to live based on your profile and preferences.

Tap on Dwellr's compass to pull up the American Community Survey's demographic, socioeconomic, and housing statistics for thousands of locations. Do it when you're on the road and discover the facts about the community receding in your rearview mirror. Search for places you want to know more about. Create your own profile and specify your preferences, then let the Census Bureau find the 25 Best Places for you to live.

Dwellr can be downloaded from the Apple app and Google Play stores and is available for iPhones and iPads, Androids, and 10-inch tablets. Dwellr is the second app created by the Census Bureau. It joins America's Economy, which provides mobile access to 19 key economic indicators. These apps are not just useful tools, they're also a lot of fun.

Welcome Back!

http://www.census.gov

How to Access Census Data During Shutdown

Received this email over the weekend...

The current shutdown in Washington is limiting the access that scholars and researchers have to vital materials, including the US Census website.  To that end, Oxford University Press and the Social Explorer team will open up access to Social Explorer – the premier US Census demographics website – for the next two weeks.  Social Explorer provides access to the US Census data from 1790 to 2010 and to the American Community Survey from 2005 through 2012.

For access to Social Explorer, simply email onlinereference@oup.com to request a username and password.

About Social Explorer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJfh7h1IpjY

Social Explorer provides quick and easy access to current and historical census data and demographic information. The easy-to-use web interface lets users create maps and reports to illustrate, analyze, and understand demography and social change. In addition to its comprehensive data resources, Social Explorer offers features and tools to meet the needs of demography experts and novices alike. From research libraries to classrooms to government agencies to corporations to the front page of the New York Times, Social Explorer helps the public engage with society and science.

More on the Government Shutdown

For a list of government statistical agencies that have been shut down, their web sites no longer accessible, see Pew's Federal Government Shutdown: The Data Casualties. For social scientists, not having access to these important data collections is a throwback to the pre-Internet 1980s, when we depended on paper documents. But this time, there's no paper trail.

Correction: This is Worse than a Sad Day

It's a nightmare. This is what happens when you go to census.gov:

http://outage.census.gov/closed.html
Due to the lapse in government funding, census.gov sites, services, and all online survey collection requests will be unavailable until further notice.

No income statistics. No housing statistics. No population statistics. No state or local area statistics. Nada. Nothing.

This is a Sad Day for Demographers

From the CDC:
Due to the lapse in government funding, only web sites supporting excepted functions will be updated unless otherwise funded. As a result, the information on this website may not be up to date, the transactions submitted via the website may not be processed, and the agency may not be able to respond to inquiries until appropriations are enacted.

From childstats.gov:
Due to a lapse of appropriations and the partial shutdown of the Federal Government, the systems that host childstats.gov have been shut down. Services will be restored as soon as a continuing resolution to provide funding has been enacted.


From the USDA Economic Research Service:
Due to the lapse in federal government funding, this website is not available.

We sincerely regret this inconvenience.

After funding has been restored, please allow some time for this website to

become available again.

Saturday Delivery

Overall, 63 percent of Americans want to eliminate Saturday delivery of the mail. But those who are mostly likely to favor this cost-cutting move may surprise you...

Percent in favor of ending Saturday mail delivery
Aged 18 to 29: 48%
Aged 30 to 49: 64%
Aged 50 to 64: 68%
Aged 65-plus: 70%

Source: Gallup, Six in 10 Americans Favor Ending Saturday Mail Delivery

Most Feel Threatened

Percentage of Americans who think the federal government threatens their personal rights and freedoms, by whether or not they have a gun in their home...

Feel threatened by federal government
Total people: 53%
Gun in home: 62%
No gun in home: 45%

Source: Pew Research Center, Majority Says the Federal Government Threatens Their Personal Rights

Entitled Americans

The 55 percent majority of Americans aged 18 or older have ever received government entitlements, according to Pew Research Center. Here is the percentage by age...

Aged 18 to 29: 33%

Aged 30 to 49: 45%

Aged 50 to 64: 59%

Aged 65 or older: 97%

Note: Government entitlements are defined as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, unemployment benefits, or food stamps.

Source: Pew Research Center, A Bipartisan Nation of Beneficiaries

Having our Cake and Eating It Too

Americans want all the goodies, but they don't want to pay for them. When the public is asked which aspects of the Affordable Care Act they would like to keep, the majority favors almost every element of the plan...

70% want to prevent health insurers from denying coverage for preexisting conditions
63% want children to be able to stay on their parents' health insurance until age 26
61% want new health insurance exchanges set up where people can shop for insurance
57% want to limit health insurance companies' profit margins
57% want research to measure the effectiveness of different medical treatments
55% want employers with 50+ employees to provide health insurance or pay a penalty

But only 26% want to keep the provision that requires people to buy health insurance or pay a penalty--the mechanism by which all of the above becomes possible.

Source: Harris Interactive, Partisanship Guides Americans' Attitudes on Health-Care Reform Law: Poll

MMWR iPad App

If you want to follow the latest health statistics on your iPad, then this might be the app for you: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, now available free from the iTunes store. Using this app you can easily access current or past volumes of the CDC's MMWR, Surveillance Summaries, Recommendations & Reports, and Vital Signs.

But wait...there's a problem. The "current" volume accessed through the app is October 5, 2012--a couple weeks behind the October 26 issue now available. As this new app gets up and running, let's hope it gets more current.

Who Needs the Federal Government?

Percentage of households receiving benefits from the federal government in 2011...

Social Security: 31.6%
Medicare: 28.9%
Medicaid: 19.5%
Food stamps: 12.7%
School lunch/breakfast: 11.2%
Supplemental Security Income: 5.8%
Public or subsidized housing: 5.0%
Women, Infants, and Children program: 4.2%
Unemployment compensation: 4.0%
Veterans compensation: 2.6%
Energy assistance: 2.1%
Cash assistance (welfare): 1.7%

Note: Households may receive benefits from more than one type of program.
Source: Census Bureau, Economic Characteristics of Households in the United States, 2011