The Suburbs Are Home to Most American Households

Fifty-three percent of American households live in the suburbs, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Only one in three lives in a central (or principal) city...

Percent distribution of U.S. households by metropolitan status, 2018
33.4% are in the principal city of a metropolitan area
52.6% are in the suburb of a metropolitan area
14.0% are outside a metropolitan area

But there is great variation in metropolitan status by race and Hispanic origin. Among Asians and Blacks, the 51 percent majority of householders live in the principal city of a metropolitan area. The figure is 46 percent among Hispanics. In contrast, only 26 percent of non-Hispanic White householders live in a city. Consequently, non-Hispanic Whites head a much smaller share of city than suburban or nonmetropolitan households.

Non-Hispanic White share of U.S. households by metropolitan status, 2018
52% of principal city households
71% of suburban households
83% of nonmetropolitan households

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 Current Population Survey

White Working Class Is in Decline

The white working class is declining not only as a share of the total U.S. population but also in absolute numbers, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis.

Today, only 40 percent of Americans aged 25 or older are white working class (defined as non-Hispanic Whites aged 25 or older without a four-year college degree). This is much lower than the 71 percent share of the population this group accounted for in 1975. During the past four-plus decades, the nonwhite working class (Hispanics, Blacks, and other minorities without a four-year degree) and non-Hispanic White college graduates have been growing. Each of these groups is now 25 percent of the population, up from 15 and 12 percent in 1975, respectively. The remaining 10 percent of the population is accounted for by nonwhites with a four-year college degree, up from 1 percent in 1975.

Social and demographic change explains the decline of the white working class—the growing share of non-Hispanic Whites who are earning a college degree and the rapid growth of minority populations relative to the non-Hispanic White population. "Whatever the cause," conclude the researchers, "the decline of this group will undoubtedly continue to have lasting economic and social consequences for the U.S."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The White Working Class: National Trends, Then and Now

A Generation Behind on Diversity

The nation's rural population is much less diverse than the urban population, reports the USDA's Economic Research Service. In nonmetropolitan counties (the definition of rural for this comparison), fully 78 percent of the population is non-Hispanic White. In metropolitan counties (urban) non-Hispanic Whites are only 58 percent of the population.

The diversity of rural America is a generation behind the United States as a whole. You have to go all the way back to 1985 to find Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, and other minorities accounting for only 22 percent of the total population.

Minority share of population
Urban (metropolitan counties): 42%
Rural (nonmetropolitan counties): 22%

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Rural America at a Glance, 2018 Edition

How Does the Public Feel about a Nonwhite Majority?

A shockingly large percentage of the American public does not look favorably on the day when Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities will outnumber non-Hispanic Whites—a threshold we may cross in 2045, according to Census Bureau projections. When asked whether a majority nonwhite population will strengthen or weaken American culture, 38 percent of the public says it will weaken American customs and values, according to a Pew Research Center survey of the public's attitudes toward a changing America.

It gets worse. When responses are broken down by race and Hispanic origin. Nearly half of Whites (46 percent) say a majority nonwhite population will weaken American culture. A smaller 18 percent of Blacks and 25 percent of Hispanics agree.

When asked whether having a majority nonwhite population by the year 2050 will be good or bad for the country, 23 percent of total adults say it will be bad. Some are more likely to feel this way than others. Twenty-eight percent of non-Hispanic Whites think it will be bad versus 13 percent of Blacks and 12 percent of Hispanics. Twenty-nine percent of people aged 65 or older say it will be bad versus 15 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds. Thirty-seven percent of Republicans don't like the idea versus 12 percent of Democrats.

The good news in these disturbing findings is that the percentage of Americans who think a majority nonwhite population will be good for the country is larger than the percentage who think it will be bad (35 versus 23 percent). And the percentage who say it will be neither good nor bad (42 percent) is even larger.

Source: Pew Research Center, Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts

Recession Generation is 51% Minority

The 51 percent majority of the nation's youngest generation is Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's most recent population estimates. The minority share of each generation falls with advancing age to a low of 22 percent among pre-Boomers—people aged 72 or older.

Overall, 39 percent of Americans are Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here are the percentages by generation...

Minority share of population by generation, 2017
Recession (0 to 7): 51%
iGeneration (8 to 22): 48%
Millennials (23 to 40): 44%
Gen Xers (41 to 52): 39%
Boomers: (53 to 71): 28%
Older (72 or older): 22%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 Population Estimates

Minority Majority in 2045

The U.S. population will become minority majority in 2045, according to the Census Bureau's new (2017 vintage) population projections. This is one year later than forecast by the bureau's earlier series of projections (2014 vintage). Behind the one-year delay is the ongoing baby bust as well as slowing immigration.

Minorities as a percent of U.S. population, 2017 to 2060
2017: 39.1%
2020: 40.3%
2025: 42.3%
2030: 44.2%
2035: 46.2%
2040: 48.3%
2045: 50.3%
2050: 52.2%
2055: 54.0%
2060: 55.7%

The Census Bureau projects that the non-Hispanic White population will fall by 10 percent between 2017 and 2060. The Black population will grow 58 percent during those years, Hispanics 89 percent, and Asians 111 percent.

Although Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities will become the majority of the population in 2045, they will not become the majority of voters for another couple decades. According to a Demo Memo analysis, minorities will become the majority of voters in the presidential election of 2064.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections

Has American Culture Changed for the Better?

Young and old disagree about changes in the American way of life, according to a PRRI survey analyzed by William H. Frey in his study of the Millennial generation. Most people aged 35 or older believe American culture has changed for the worse since the 1950s, while most adults under age 35 believe it has changed for the better.

"Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?" (percent saying it has changed for the better)
Aged 18 to 34: 55%
Aged 35 to 54: 43%
Aged 55-plus: 42%

Older, non-Hispanic Whites are behind this pessimism. Only 39 to 40 percent of non-Hispanic Whites aged 35 or older believe American culture has changed for the better since the 1950s. Among non-Hispanic Whites under age 35, the 51 percent majority say it has changed for the better. Minorities, regardless of age, believe America is better today than it was in the 1950s.

Source: Brookings, The Millennial Generation: A Demographic Bridge to America's Diverse Future

Millennials: A Demographic Bridge

The Millennial generation is "a demographic bridge to America's diverse future," according to a Brookings analysis of the generation by William H. Frey. Millennials (defined as 18-to-34-year-olds) are only 55.8 percent non-Hispanic White. The generations ahead of them are dominated by non-Hispanic Whites (61.5 percent of 35-to-54-year-olds and 75.0 percent of people aged 55-plus). The generation behind them is almost minority majority (51.5 percent of people under age 18 are non-Hispanic White). Millennials are the bridge for this "cultural generation gap" between old and young.

Frey's study calculates the cultural generation gap for states and large metropolitan areas. He defines the gap as the difference between the non-Hispanic White share of the pre-Millennial population (aged 35 or older) minus the non-Hispanic White share of the post-Millennial population (under age 18). Nationally, the gap is 16 percentage points (68 minus 52 percent). But in some states and metropolitan areas, the gap is much larger. By state, the gap is largest in Arizona—27 percentage points (67 minus 40 percent). By metropolitan area, the gap is largest in Cape Coral, Florida—30 percentage points (78 minus 48 percent).

The lasting legacy of Millennials is yet to be determined, says Frey. It will be "based on how successfully they serve as a social, economic, and political bridge to the next racially diverse generation," he concludes.

Source: Brookings, The Millennial Generation: A Demographic Bridge to America's Diverse Future

Minority Majority in Youngest Generation

According to the Census Bureau 2016 population estimates, there's now a generation of Americans in which Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities account for the majority of members. The Recession Generation, a placeholder name for those born in the most recent and ongoing baby bust beginning in 2009, is 50.1 percent minority and 49.9 percent non-Hispanic White. Hispanics account for 26 percent of the Recession generation, Blacks for 18 percent, and Asians for 7 percent.

Overall, 38.7 percent of Americans are Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here are the percentages by generation...

Minority share of population by generation, 2016
Recession (0 to 6): 50.1%
iGeneration (7 to 21): 47.2%
Millennials (22 to 39): 44.0%
Gen Xers (40 to 51): 38.5%
Boomers: (52 to 70): 28.8%
Older (71 or older): 21.3%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2016 Population Estimates

Minority Share of 10 Largest Metro Areas, 2015

Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities accounted for 38 percent of the total U.S. population in 2015. Minorities are the majority in 7 of the 10 largest metropolitan areas.

Minority share of 10 largest metropolitan areas
New York: 53.1%
Los Angeles: 70.1%
Chicago: 46.7%
Dallas: 52.3%
Houston: 62.7%
Washington, DC: 53.9%
Philadelphia: 37.4%
Miami: 68.2%
Atlanta: 51.7%
Boston: 28.3%

Note: Minorities are calculated by subtracting non-Hispanic Whites from the total population.
Source: Census Bureau, American Factfinder, 2015 American Community Survey

States with Minority Majority Births

Nearly half (46 percent) of American babies are born to Asian, Black, Hispanic, or American Indian mothers. In 11 states and DC, minorities account for the majority of births...

Percent of births to Asians, Blacks, Hispanics or other minorities
Arizona: 55.6%
California: 71.3%
District of Columbia: 68.8%
Florida: 54.2%
Georgia: 54.1%
Hawaii: 73.7%
Maryland: 55.1%
Nevada: 57.8%
New Jersey: 53.3%
New Mexico: 72.3%
New York: 51.4%
Texas: 64.7%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Births: Final Data for 2014

Why Mid-Term Elections Are Different

The demographics of mid-term elections are strikingly different from the demographics of presidential elections. In mid-terms, older non-Hispanic Whites overwhelm the polls. In presidential elections, younger and more diverse voters are in control. Take a look...

Non-Hispanic Whites aged 45+ as a share of voters
2014 mid-term election: 55%
2012 presidential election: 48%
2010 mid-term election: 54%
2008 presidential election: 47%

Older non-Hispanic Whites dominate mid-term elections because they are much more likely to vote. In the 2014 mid-term, fully 56 percent of non-Hispanic Whites aged 45 or older cast a vote. In contrast, only 31 percent of younger non-Hispanic Whites and 33 percent of minorities went to the polls. (Note: calculations of voting rates are based on citizen populations.)

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2014

Are Children Under Age 5 Minority-Majority?

The minority share of children under age 5 crossed an important threshold in 2014, according to the Census Bureau. For the first time, Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities outnumbered non-Hispanic Whites in the age group—50.2 percent to 49.8 percent. But there's a problem with these figures. The Census Bureau's race-and-Hispanic-origin estimates of the population under age 5 do not match vital statistics data.

The Census Bureau has estimated that there were 19.9 million children under age 5 in the United States in 2014, a number nearly matching the 19.8 million births recorded in the 2010-to-2014 time period (the population under age 5 in 2014). The Census Bureau's under-5 total population estimate aligns with vital statistics data. The mismatch occurs in the race-and-Hispanic-origin distribution of that population. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the minority share of births from 2010 to 2014 was 45.9 percent. The non-Hispanic White share of births was 54.1 percent. Is the nation's under-5 population minority-majority? Perhaps not yet.

States with Minority Majority Public School Students

Among the nation's public school students in 2012, nearly half (49 percent) were Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Only 51 percent were non-Hispanic White. Minorities are the majority of public school students in 14 states and the District of Columbia...

Minority share of public school students
District of Columbia: 91.6%
Hawaii: 86.1%
California: 74.5%
New Mexico: 74.5%
Texas: 70.0%
Nevada: 63.2%
Arizona: 58.4%
Florida: 58.4%
Maryland: 58.2%
Georgia: 56.5%
Mississippi: 54.3%
Louisiana: 53.0%
New York: 52.8%
Delaware: 51.4%
New Jersey: 50.2%

In three states—Maine, West Virginia, and Vermont—minorities account for fewer than 10 percent of public school students.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2014

Minority Students by Region

In the nation as a whole, 48 percent of students enrolled in public elementary and secondary schools are Asian, black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here is the minority percentage by region...

Northeast: 40%
Midwest: 31%
South: 53%
West: 60%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2012

Profiting from Minorities

Minorities account for the 51 percent majority of four-year college students enrolled in the nation's private, for-profit schools.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2012 Digest of Education Statistics (table 268).