What's So Special about Detroit?

During the Super Bowl, a two-minute television advertisement aired for the 2011 Chrysler 200 automobile, showcasing Detroit with Eminem as soundtrack. The ad was such a sensation (9 million views on YouTube so far) that the company proceeded to wrap (literally) its Auburn Hills, Michigan headquarters with an enormous banner carrying the newly legendary tagline: "Imported from Detroit." T-shirts promoting those strangely powerful words were rushed into production and sold out within hours. Chrysler promises to produce more. 

Americans can't seem to get enough of Detroit. Entire web sites are devoted to images of its abandoned buildings. Some Detroit residents--current and former--are offended by the online ogling of Detroit's "ruin porn," as it is sometimes called. But those coming to the defense of Detroit need not worry. The root of our obsession has shifted from condemnation to admiration. The metropolitan area has become a  mirror of America, and we can't tear our eyes away from what we see. Take a look at Detroit:  

•                Unemployment rate: 11.1% (December 2010).

•                Median housing value: - 36% (2003 to 2009, after adjusting for inflation).

•                Homeowners underwater on their mortgage: 19% (2009).

•                Median household income: -23% (1999 to 2009, after adjusting for inflation).

It looks bad, and it is bad. But Detroit is doing no worse than the rest of the United States--it is just a few steps ahead of us. Nationally, the unemployment rate is a stubbornly high 8.9 percent. Nationally, the decline in housing values exceeds that of the Great Depression--a 26 percent loss since prices peaked in 2006, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Nationally, the percentage of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgage doubled from 4 to 8 percent between 2003 and 2009. Nationally, median household income fell 5 percent between 1999 and 2009, after adjusting for inflation. Detroit has been there, done that.  

The reflective power of Detroit has Hogwarts-like magical properties. In the mirror of Detroit, we can see ourselves as we used to be, as we are now, and as we might be in the future. In Detroit's world-class industries, we see our past glory. In Detroit's devastated landscape, we see our ruined economy. In the rebirth of Chrysler and General Motors, we see our resolve to make things work again.

The metamorphosis of Detroit in the American psyche occurred in three distinct stages. In the first stage we were bystanders watching the train wreck of Detroit from afar. In the second stage we discovered, much to our horror, that we were on the train ourselves. Now in the third stage, we--like Detroit--are climbing out of the wreckage and trying to figure out what happens next. That's why "Imported from Detroit" struck such a chord with the public. It called us back from a faraway land where we had become expatriates from the American experience, separated from what made us great: hard work, real products, modest goals, and good ideas. Americans are obsessed with Detroit because Detroit is us. But to make Detroit's future--and our own--something we want, we have to bet our money on it. So far, sales of the 2011 Chrysler 200 have been disappointing.

Is Life Exciting?

Percentage of people who find life exciting, by age...

18-29: 57%
39-39: 52
40-49: 53
50-59: 56
60 or older: 45

Source: General Social Survey

Trust: The Decline

Over the past four decades, the General Social Survey has been asking Americans this question: Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can't be too careful in life? During those decades, the percentage who say most people can be trusted has fallen steadily from 46 percent in 1972 (the first GSS survey) to 32 percent in 2010. What is behind the decline, demographically speaking? Are people losing their trust in others over time, or are younger less-trusting cohorts replacing older more-trusting ones? 

The answer is behind door number two: younger less-trusting cohorts are replacing older more-trusting ones. The percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who think most people can be trusted has fallen over the years and was just 18 percent in 2010.

Within cohorts, the percentage who trust others has remained relatively stable across the decades. One cohort in particular is consistently the most trusting--people born between 1941 and 1950 (aged 60 to 69 in 2010). The 51 percent majority of today's 60-to-69-year-olds think most people can be trusted.

The 33 percentage point gap in trust between 18-to-29-year-olds (18 percent) and 60-69-year-olds (51 percent) seems like a profound statement about something.  

Oh Happy Day!

The 2010 General Social Survey results are now available for extraction on UC Berkeley's Survey Documentation and Analysis web site. Here is an inaugural finding...

Percentage of people aged 18 or older who agree with the statement, "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living..."

2010: 58%
2000: 77%

Source: General Social Survey, SDA, UC-Berkeley

Who's Got Your Back?

Percent rating honesty and ethical standards of workers "high" or "very high," by occupation...

Grade school teachers: 67%

Politicians, state: 12%

Politicians, federal: 9%

Lobbyists: 7%

Source: Gallup Poll, cited in Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

Steep Decline in Home Buying among Young

Young adults are buying homes at a sluggish pace. My analysis of the change in the homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds as they age into the 30-to-34 age group shows that young adults are more hesitant to buy a home today than at any time in the past quarter century.

First, some background. The 30-to-34 age group is critical for home buying. This is when the homeownership rate surpasses 50 percent of households, a fact recorded each year by the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey for nearly three decades. In 2010, 36.8 percent of householders aged 25 to 29 owned a home, as did 51.6 percent of those aged 30-to-34.

Here's the catch. Those 30-to-34-year-olds in 2010 were 25-to-29-year-olds in 2005. So let's take a look at what happened to the cohort's homeownership rate over those five years. In 2005, the homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds was 40.9 percent. In 2010, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was 51.6 percent. So far so good--a big increase in the cohort's homeownership rate! But this increase is far smaller than the one experienced by 25-to-29-year-olds as they aged into their early thirties between 1995 and 2000. In fact, it is only about half as big (10.7 percentage points versus 20.2 percentage points). The gain is also smaller than the one that occurred to 25-to-29-year-olds as they aged into their early thirties between 1985 and 1990 (14.1 percentage points).

Here's the bottom line: Over the past few years, householders aged 30 to 34 experienced a bigger decline in homeownership than any other age group, their rate falling from 56.8 to 51.6 percent between 2005 and 2010. Behind the decline is the fact that millions of young adults--as they enter this critical age group--are deciding they do not want (or cannot afford) to buy a home.

Trouble in Arizona

Percentage of Arizona residents aged 18 to 64...

Who have private health insurance

2004: 61

2010: 48

Who have unmet medical needs

2004: 12

2010: 17

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Health Insurance and Unmet Medical Need for Persons Under 65 Years of Age, in the United Stats and Selected States from 2004-June 2010

Who Snores

Percentage of people aged 18 or older who say they snore...

Men: 57%

Women: 40%

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

New Sexual Behavior Study

The government does ask and it does tell. In a new study of the sexual behavior of Americans aged 18 to 44, the National Center for Health Statistics reports that 6 percent of men and 13 percent of women have had sexual contact with a same-sex partner.

When asked whether they are heterosexual or homosexual, 5 percent of women identify themselves as lesbian or bisexual. Among men in the age group, 3 percent say they are gay or bisexual. These figures are similar to those found in a survey taken in 2002.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Identity in the United States: Data from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth

Fat Americans: The French Version

This may be a first. The National Center for Health Statistics just released a report on obesity in the United States and Canada--in French! For those who can't quite wrap their mind around the French, an English version is also available.

The findings are the same in either language. Americans are fatter than Canadians. In the United States, 34 percent of adults are obese (defined as having a body mass index of 30.0 or higher). In Canada, the figure is a substantially smaller 24 percent. Even after limiting the analysis to non-Hispanic whites, most of the gap remains: 33 percent of Americans are obese compared with 26 percent of Canadians.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prévalence de l’obésité chez les adultes au Canada et aux États-Unis

Bet You Didn't Know

Percent change in death rates by selected cause, 1960 to 2007...

Pneumonia: -70%

Heart disease: -66%

Accidents: -37%

Cancer: -8%

Homicide: +17%

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2011 Statistical Abstract

Not so Mobile

Percentage of Americans who access the Internet on a mobile phone: 37%

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University, Race and Recession Survey

Better Times Ahead

Percent who agree with the statement "America's best times are yet to come"...

Blacks: 59%

Hispanics: 44%

Whites: 40%

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University, Race and Recession Survey

Is Art in Decline?

The popularity of Glee and Dancing with the Stars has the folks over at the National Endowment for the Arts scratching their heads. Their five surveys of arts participation, taken over the past 30-some years, show a decline in arts participation. The surveys ask a representative sample of Americans whether they have attended any of the following events in the past year: a jazz or classical music concert, an opera, a musical, a play, a ballet, another dance performance, or an art museum. The latest survey, taken in 2008, found declines in attendance at every type of venue. The percentage who attended a classical music concert, for example, fell from 13 percent in the 1980s to 9 percent in 2008.

Rather than tsk-tsking over the failure of Americans to engage with the arts, the NEA concludes in a new report (Age and Arts Participation: A Case against Demographic Destiny) that times may be "a changing." Bravely, it even suggests that perhaps its own measures of arts participation are too narrow. As evidence, the NEA references the findings of another arts survey (see Philadelphia Cultural Engagement Index), one that defines arts participation much more broadly. The Philadelphia Cultural Engagement Index, fielded in 2009, found much higher participation in a variety of what may be viewed as "nontraditional" art experiences. According to the Philadelphia study, 81 percent of respondents listen to music on the radio at least weekly, 39 percent sing at least weekly, 28 percent watch television shows about dance at least weekly, 11 percent write in a journal or blog at least weekly, 50 percent read books for pleasure at least weekly, 38 percent watch programs about science or history on TV at least weekly, and 19 percent dance socially at night clubs or parties at least monthly.

These differing findings reveal an important truth about survey research: the answers you get are always determined by the questions you ask.

Things that Cost Less

These are some of the items that cost less in 2009 than they did almost three decades ago in 1982-84: living room, kitchen, and dining room furniture; appliances; clocks, lamps, and other household decorative items; children's clothes; and landline and wireless telephone services.

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2011 Statistical Abstract

Black and White

Mississippi is the most politically conservative state in the nation, according to a Gallup survey. It is also the state in which blacks account for the largest share of the population. Just over half (50.5%) of adults in Mississippi identify themselves as political conservatives. More than one-third (37.1%) of Mississippi's population is black.

Is Mississippi's number one rank in both measures a coincidence, or is it a consequence of the growing political polarization of whites and blacks? Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina also rank among the top ten in both measures.

Underweight

Percentage of adults in the United States who are underweight: 1.6%.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Heath E-Stats

Table FG10

For those tracking the "doubling up" trend during the Great Recession, the Census Bureau has a table for you. First introduced in 2008, table FG10 shows the number of households that include adult children or other relatives of the householder. Between 2008 and 2010, these extended-family households grew by more than 800,000 to 9.8 million--or about 8 percent of all households and 12 percent of all families.

The number of householders whose adult children live with them grew 11 percent between 2008 and 2010 (to 5.3 million). The number with a parent in their home expanded by a larger 13 percent (to 2.3 million). By race and Hispanic origin, blacks are most likely to have adult children in their home, and Asians are most likely to have a parent living with them.

Source: Bureau of the Census, America's Families and Living Arrangements, table FG10

Kids These Days

Percentage of children who live with their married, biological, mother and father: 59.

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

An Average Day: Groceries

Fourteen percent of Americans shop for groceries on an average day.

Source: American Time Use Survey

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Minus 805,000

The number of homeowners in the United States fell from a peak of 75.6 million in 2006 to 74.8 million in 2010, a decline of 805,000 (1 percent).

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Household Type

Homeownership rates by household type in 2010 and when the homeownership rate peaked (in 2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
Married couple	82.1	84.0	-1.9
Female family	48.6	50.9	-2.3
Male family	56.9	59.6	-2.7
Women alone	58.6	59.9	-1.3
Men alone	51.3	50.5	0.8

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Race

Here are the homeownership rates by race and Hispanic origin in 2010 and in the year when homeownership peaked (2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
American Indian	52.3	55.6	-3.3
Asian	58.9	59.8	-0.9
Black	45.4	49.1	-3.7
Hispanic	47.5	48.1	-0.6
Non-Hisp white	74.4	76.0	-1.6

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

2010 Homeownership Data

This morning the Census Bureau released the 2010 annual homeownership statistics. Here's a look at homeownership rates by age in 2010 and in the year when the overall homeownership rate peaked (2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
under 25	39.1	43.1	-4.0
35 to 44	65.0	69.2	-4.2
45 to 54	73.5	77.2	-3.7
55 to 64	79.0	81.7	-2.7
65+	80.5	81.1	-0.6

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Detroit's Decline

The median value of owner-occupied homes in the Detroit metropolitan area was just $120,000 in 2009, down from $159,993 in 2003.

One in five homeowners in Detroit is underwater on their mortgage, meaning they owe more than their home is worth. In 2003, only 1 in 63 homeowners was underwater.

Source: American Housing Survey, Metropolitan Data

No Heat

Of the nation's 114 million households, 1 million do not use heating fuel of any kind. Seventy-two percent are in three states: California (34 percent), Hawaii (27 percent), and Florida (10 percent).

Source: 2009 American Community Survey

An Average Day: College Students

On an average weekday, college students spend 3.6 hours in class or studying and 3.5 hours socializing and playing sports.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics

Bet You Didn't Know

Rank of Alzheimer's disease as a cause of death in the United States: 6.

Source: Health, United States 2010

How Do You Define Reading?

The American Time Use Survey, which is taken annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, asks Americans what they did minute by minute during the previous 24 hours. Their activities are classified into categories such as "reading for personal interest" and "computer use for leisure." Here's the question: How does the Time Use Survey classify reading a book on an iPad? Is it computer use or reading?

Not a problem, according to the time use experts at the BLS. Computers, they say, are tools for accomplishing other tasks. When respondents report using a computer, the interviewer then asks what they were doing on the computer. If they were reading a newspaper or book on their iPad, the activity is classified as reading, not computer use. Similarly, if they were using their computer to manage their money, the activity is classified as financial management rather than computer use. In fact, the category "computer use for leisure" is nothing more than a residual--what little remains after assigning all possible computer use to other activities.

This is good news because it means the time use survey category "reading for personal interest" is positioned to capture any changes in time spent reading due to e-readers. An increase in reading might be on the way, according to an analysis posted by Read It Later, an app that allows users to save articles on their computers and phones for later reading. The company's data show a spike in iPad reading between 8 and 10 pm--typically television time. Could e-reading compete with television as a prime-time activity? Maybe, but it is not happening yet. Between 2005 and 2009, the average person spent a lot more time watching TV and slightly less time reading. There is one exception, however. Teenagers aged 15 to 19 spent a bit more time reading and a bit less time watching TV. Is this a blip or a sign of things to come?

One Pill Makes You Larger

Yesterday the National Center for Health Statistics released the 2010 edition of Health, United States. This annual report is mostly a compilation of survey results available elsewhere on the NCHS web site, but its 148 trend tables offer an historical perspective that can be insightful. In table 138, for example, you can see at a glance that the percentage of 25-to-34-year-olds without health insurance climbed from 16 percent in 1984 to 28 percent in 2009--the biggest increase among age groups.

Table 94, Prescription Drug Use in the Past Month, is my favorite. This table shows that 48 percent of Americans took at least one prescription drug in the past month, up from 38 percent roughly two decades ago. Twenty-one percent took three or more prescription drugs in the past month, up from 12 percent. Among people aged 65 or older, 65 percent have taken three or more prescription drugs in the past month, up from 35 percent in the earlier time period.

We Love the Dawgs

Among items on which the average household spends the most, rank of...

Veterinary services: 51

Physician's services: 54

Source: Best Customers, 7th edition

Score One for the Great Recession

How do you measure bad times? Specifically, how does the Great Recession compare with the Great Depression? Economists typically use GDP as the measuring stick. During the Great Depression, GDP fell by a stunning 27 percent. During the Great Recession, GDP fell only 4 percent. Using the GDP measure, then, the Great Recession was only 15 percent as severe as the Great Depression (4/27 x 100 = 15).

Something is missing from the GDP comparison, however: a human face. GDP and other macro-level economic statistics fail to capture the human experience of hard times. We need something that measures the personal dimension of economic downturns. One way to measure the personal is with the yardstick of demographic change. We can use demographic statistics--unemployment, homeownership, living arrangements, births, marriages, migration, and even death--to compare the Great Recession with the Great Depression. And we will keep score.

Unemployment

When comparing the Great Recession with the Great Depression, the unemployment rate is the Holy Grail. Unfortunately, it is not possible to directly compare the unemployment rates of the two time periods. Today, the federal government surveys an enormous sample of the population every month to determine unemployment. Not so during the Great Depression. Historians have made educated guesses about unemployment during the 1930s by subtracting estimates of the employed from estimates of the civilian labor force. The remainder is the unemployed. According to these calculations, unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at 25.2 percent in 1933.

The official unemployment rate during the Great Recession peaked at a much lower 10.1 percent in October 2009. Some say this figure does not tell the whole story because it counts as unemployed only those who have been looking for work recently. Even using the most expansive definition of unemployment, however, the rate peaked at 18.0 percent in January 2010 and now stands at 16.1 percent (See U-6 in table A-15 of the Employment Situation report).

We will keep score using this formula: Great Recession statistic/Great Depression statistic times 100. Using the official unemployment figure from the Great Recession, the formula is: (10.1/25.2) x 100 = 40. Using the larger Great Recession unemployment figure, the formula is (18.0/25.2) x 100 = 71. The average of 40 and 71 is 56. Score = 56.

Homeownership

During the Great Depression, the homeownership rate fell from 47.8 percent in 1930 to 43.6 percent in 1940--a 4.2 percentage point decline. So far during the Great Recession, the homeownership rate has fallen from the 69.0 percent peak in 2004 to 66.9 percent in 2010--a 2.1 percentage point decline. Score: (2.1/4.2) x 100 = 50.

Living arrangements

Despite the economic hardships of the Great Depression, household size continued its long-term historical decline, falling from 4.1 to 3.8 persons per household between 1930 and 1940 as people moved from farms to cities. During the Great Recession, average household size crept up slightly (and not at all after rounding), rising from 2.56 in 2007 to 2.59 in 2010. Because of ongoing urbanization during the 1930s, this indicator is not comparable between the two time periods.

Immigration

During the Great Depression, the number of people legally immigrating to the United States plummeted by 91.8 percent in just a few years, falling from 279,678 in 1929 to just 23,068 in 1933. So far during the Great Recession, the number of people legally immigrating to the United States fell from a decade high of 1,266,129 in 2006 to 1,130,818 in 2009--a 10.7 percent decline. Score: (10.7/91.8) x 100 = 12.

Births

During the Great Depression, the number of births fell from 2,582,000 in 1929 to a low of 2,307,000 in 1933--a 10.7 percent decline. So far during the Great Recession, the number of births has fallen from a peak of 4,316,233 in 2007 to an estimated 4,055,000 in 2010--a 6.4 percent decline. Score: (6.4/10.7) x 100 = 60.

Marriages

During the Great Depression, the number of marriages fell from 1,233,000 in 1929 to a low of 982,000 in 1932--a 20.4 percent decline. So far during the Great Recession, the number of marriages fell from 2,205,000 in 2007 to 2,077,000 in 2009--a 5.8 percent decline. Score: (5.8/20.4) x 100 = 28.

Life expectancy

During the Great Depression, life expectancy climbed to 63.3 years in 1933, then fell to 58.5 years by 1936--a decline of 4.8 years. So far during the Great Recession, life expectancy has fallen a miniscule 0.1 years--from 77.9 in 2007 to 77.8 in 2008 (the latest data available). Score: (0.1/4.8) x 100 = 2.

The Score

Average the six scores, and the result is 35. In other words, the Great Recession has been about one-third as severe as the Great Depression and more than twice as bad as the GDP comparison suggests.

Of course, the demographic impact of the Great Recession is still unfolding. Homeownership rates, births, marriages, immigration--even life expectancy--could decline further as households adjust to reduced circumstances. Any continuing declines will drive the score higher, but probably not by much. There is reason to believe we are through the worst of the Great Recession. As financial analyst and blogger Barry Ritholtz notes, most of the economy is people getting up in the morning and sending their kids off to school. As long as we are still doing that, we will muddle through.

Bet You Didn't Know

Market share controlled by householders aged 55 or older...

Newspaper and magazine subscriptions: 61%

Newspapers and magazines, single copy: 39%

Source: Household Spending, 15th edition

Big Increase in Part-Timers

Twenty-six percent of employed Americans have part-time jobs, up from 18 percent in 2008. The number of part-time workers expanded by nearly 10 million during the past two years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Unemployed One or More Years

Percentage of unemployed full-time workers who have been out of work for one or more years...

2010: 31%

2009: 17%

2008: 11%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

2010 Labor Force Participation

Over the weekend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released 2010 labor force statistics. The numbers reveal plummeting labor force participation rates in most age groups. The biggest decline was among teenagers aged 16 to 19. Their labor force participation rate fell from 52 percent in 2000 to just 35 percent in 2010.

Among men aged 16 or older, labor force participation fell 3.6 percentage points between 2000 and 2010, to 71.2 percent--the lowest level on record. (Remember, labor force participation rates include the employed AND the unemployed.)

Among women aged 16 or older, labor force participation fell 1.3 percentage points to 58.6 percent.

Labor force participation increased only among people aged 55 or older. The biggest gain was among men and women aged 65 or older, a 4.4 percentage point rise in participation to 22.1 percent among men and 13.8 percent among women.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

How Many Dogs?

Number of pets in the United States...

Dogs: 72 million (in 37% of households)

Cats: 82 million (in 32% of households)

Birds: 11 million (in 4% of households)

Horses: 7 million (in 2% of households)

Source: American Veterinary Medical Association

The Mystery of the Missing Data

This week the Census Bureau released 2009 data on school enrollment. Once again I have to lament the loss of Table 14, which the bureau "eliminated" (yes, that's how the Census Bureau describes it) from its school enrollment tables beginning in 2006.

Table 14 gave us this: "Enrollment Status of Dependent Primary Family Members 18 to 24 Years Old by Family Income." This table revealed the yawning gap in college enrollment by family income. The last time the bureau published the table, with data for 2005, the numbers showed that 80 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds from families with incomes of $100,000 or more were enrolled in college. Among those from families with incomes below $50,000, the figure was just 33 percent. We no longer can get this information from the Census Bureau. Why?

Source: Bureau of the Census, School Enrollment

Gender Gap: Video Games

Percentage of college freshmen who played video/computer games during an average week while seniors in high school...

Men: 82%

Women: 37%

Source: HERI, The American Freshman--National Norms Fall 2010

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of 23-year-olds who have a bachelor's degree...

Men: 14%

Women: 23%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, America's Young Adults at 23

Does Butter Cost Too Much?

OK, so some food prices are rising. (Have you checked the price of butter lately?) Still, we have nothing to complain about. In the early 1900s, feeding the family required 43 percent of every dollar spent by the average household. Today the figure is just 13 percent, close to the record low of 12 percent reached in 2007--and it includes restaurant spending. If we devoted the same share of our expenditures to food as families did in 1901, then the average household would be spending $21,000 a year on food instead of $6,400.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 100 Years of U.S. Consumer Spending

Losing Counties

So far the Census Bureau has released 2010 census redistricting data for four states: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. This week data for Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, and Vermont will be released. All 50 states will be available by April 1. At this link, the Census Bureau provides a neat interactive graphic by state that allows you to see county-level 2010 population counts and bar charts depicting population change by county since 1960.

It is interesting to note how many counties are losing population. Typically, the losers are rural pockets with poor to nonexistent Internet and cell phone service, a fatal condition in the modern economy.

College Enrollment Decline

This morning the Census Bureau released 2009 school enrollment statistics, and the numbers confirm that full-time undergraduate enrollment at private colleges and universities is still below the peak of 2005.

Although overall college enrollment is at an all-time high of nearly 20 million, the number of undergraduates enrolled full-time in four-year private schools is 9 percent below peak. Because the private numbers include some of the rapidly expanding for-profits (excluded are those with online courses only), traditional non-profit private colleges may be hurting more than these numbers suggest.

Meanwhile, the number of undergraduates enrolled full-time in four-year public colleges and universities grew 14 percent between 2005 and 2009. The number enrolled full-time in two-year public colleges expanded by 38 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of Students: October 2009

True Love

Percentage of men aged 30 or older who have married only once and are still married: 53%

Source: Bureau of the Census

What, Me Worry?

Percentage of freshmen at four-year colleges who are not sure they will have enough funds to complete college...

2010: 11.1%

1970: 11.2%

Source: HERI, The American Freshman--National Norms Fall 2010, and The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends

How Many Workers are Illegal?

Unauthorized immigrants accounted for 5.2 percent of the labor force in 2010, according to a new report from the Pew Hispanic Center.

Explaining the Jobs Report

What explains the strange employment report released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Employers added only 36,000 jobs in January, yet the unemployment rate fell from 9.4. to 9.0 percent. Could this be the reason: the baby-boom generation is grabbing hold of the lifeline of early Social Security benefits (available at age 62) and leaving the labor force behind.

Most older boomers (aged 55 or older) do not plan to retire until age 66 or older, according to the Retirement Confidence Survey. Only 19 percent say they will retire before age 65. But unemployed boomers may be changing their minds as they cope with an unyielding labor market. The fact is, many workers end up retiring before they planned--a substantial 41 percent, according to the RCI.

There are some indications that this is happening. The labor force participation rate (which includes both the employed and the unemployed) fell to 64.2 percent in January 2011, the lowest level since 1983. Even more telling, between 2009 and 2010, the number of people aged 55 or older in the labor force fell by 1 million despite the fact that the age group is still expanding with boomers.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Grrrrr

Frustration with the 2010 Current Population Survey's America's Families and Living Arrangements tables...

Apparently, the Census Bureau thinks it is of the utmost importance to provide race and Hispanic origin detail for the few children who live with their grandparents, but does not think it important to provide race and Hispanic origin detail on homeownership by household type.

Still Want to Own

Even in the grip of the biggest housing crisis since the Great Depression, Americans remain optimistic about homeownership. Sixty-seven percent still believe housing is a safe investment, according to the latest Fannie Mae National Housing Survey fielded last summer. Eighty-four percent believe owning a home makes more sense than renting.

Of course, most Americans--and most survey respondents--own their home. Naturally, homeowners will think they made the right choice. So how do renters feel about homeownership? According to the survey results, they are less positive than the average person but still upbeat. Fifty-four percent of renters think buying a home is a safe investment. Sixty-nine percent think owning a home makes more sense than renting. Fifty-nine percent of renters think it is a good time to buy a home. But only 38 percent say they are likely to buy a home in the next three years.

Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, June-July 2010

The Thing about Jobs

51 million. That's how many job openings the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects for the 2008-18 decade. Two-thirds of those jobs will result from what the BLS calls "replacement needs" (retirement) rather than economic growth. Of the 51 million projected job openings, 34 million will come from replacement and only 15 million from economic growth.

The retirement decisions of aging baby boomers will determine the job prospects of the nation's younger adults.

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Out of Date

For the past few months the Census Bureau has been releasing "new" data about women-owned businesses, Hispanic-owned businesses, and next week we will find out about black-owned businesses. Unfortunately these data are from the 2007 Survey of Business Owners. The data may provide some insight into the way things were just before the country plunged into the Great Recession, but they shed little light on how things are now.

Update on a Mystery

The homeownership rate of the youngest householders, under age 25, remained elevated in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to statistics released by the Census Bureau this morning. In fact, the homeownership rate of the age group actually increased slightly--rising from 22.3 percent in the third quarter to 22.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The stability in the homeownership rate of the youngest adults has yet to be explained.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39 plummeted to 60.5 percent in the fourth quarter--close to the record low for the age group and down more than 6 percentage points since their homeownership rate peaked at 66.6 percent in 2005. Among age groups, householders aged 35 to 39 have seen their homeownership rate decline the most since the collapse of the housing bubble. Is this because they are losing their homes to foreclosure or because younger people aging into the 35-to-39 group are unable or unwilling to buy homes?

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Fourth Quarter 2010

Few Egyptians in U.S.

Only 197,160 U.S. residents identify their ancestry as Egyptian, or fewer than 1 percent of the population according to the 2009 American Community Survey. Among the 1.7 million people in the United States who claim Arab ancestry, the largest number (504,499) identify themselves as Lebanese.

Overall, German is the largest ancestry group in the United States (51 million), followed by Irish (37 million).

Source: 2009 American Community Survey

Deeper in Debt

Percentage of homeowners aged 65 or older with a mortgage...

2009: 27

1999: 18

Source: American Housing Surveys

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Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of households that include adult children or other relatives, by race and Hispanic origin...

Total households: 21

Black households: 29

Hispanic households: 34

Source: American Housing Survey, 2009

Retiring Too Soon

Among retirees, percentage who say they had to retire sooner than they planned: 41%

Source: Retirement Confidence Survey

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An Average Day: Thinking

On an average day, Americans spend 15 minutes "relaxing and thinking" as a primary activity (meaning it is their main activity at the time), according to the American Time Use Survey.

What is "relaxing and thinking"? According to the Time Use Survey lexicon, it includes sitting around doing nothing (alone), soaking in a hot tub (alone), daydreaming, crying, grieving, sunbathing, watching your wife cook dinner or your husband fix the lawnmower, and fantasizing, reflecting, and wondering.

Source: American Time Use Survey

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The Mystery of the Young Homeowner

Twenty-two percent of young adults (under age 25) were homeowners as of the third quarter of 2010, a percentage far higher than the norm for the past quarter century. What is keeping the homeownership rate of young adults afloat in the midst of the housing collapse?

For most of the 1980s and 1990s, the homeownership rate of young adults was well below 20 percent, bottoming out at 14.8 percent in 1993. Then the rate began to climb, peaking at 25.7 percent in 2005. It is easy to figure out why the rate ballooned--parents were using their own inflated home equity to help their children buy homes in the expectation that their children could cash in on rising housing prices.

Since 2005, the homeownership rate of householders under age 25 has fallen, but not as much as you would expect. Think about it. Most homeowners under age 25 in 2010 had to have bought their home since 2005. With home equity greatly diminished, credit tight, unemployment sky high, and many young adults moving back home with their parents, what continues to elevate the homeownership rate of young adults?

Tearing my Hair Out

Using the American Community Survey to track trends is like trying to blaze a trail through a jungle of pick-up sticks.

Clinging to their Jobs

The percentage of employed men aged 65 or older who have been with their current employer for 10 or more years climbed from 49 to 52 percent between 2000 and 2010.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Tenure

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How Many Can't Shop at Walmart?

How many Americans can't shop at Walmart because they are incapable of walking the distance from the parking lot, through the store, and back to their car? The lengthy "walk to shop" demanded by most big-box stores and shopping malls is not possible for 16 million Americans, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

The oldest Americans have the biggest problem. Twenty-eight percent of people aged 75 or older cannot walk a quarter mile. Among 65-to-74-year-olds, the figure is 13 percent. With the baby-boom generation now entering the 65+ age group, the number of Americans who cannot walk to shop will rise.

Source: Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults, Table 16

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Married Couples Below 50 Percent

The number of households headed by married couples fell 1 percent between 2009 and 2010, according to the Current Population Survey. Married couples now account for less than half (49.7 percent) of all households in the United States, down from 78 percent in 1950.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Time Series Table HH-1

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Why the Stability in Household Spending?

Between 2006 (the year household spending peaked) and 2009 (the latest available data), average household spending fell 5 percent, after adjusting for inflation--from $51,504 to $49,067. This is a relatively modest decline considering the severity of the Great Recession. Why has household spending been so stable?

1. Some households are spending more. Householders aged 65 or older boosted their spending between 2006 and 2009--up 0.7 percent after adjusting for inflation, according to my analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Every other age group cut back, with householders under age 45 cutting back the most.

2. Most workers have jobs. The unemployment rate stood at 9.4 percent in December 2010, an unacceptably high level. Nevertheless, 90 percent of workers had a job in December. An NBER survey found that 19 percent of workers had experienced unemployment between November 2008 and October 2009, a painfully high number. Nevertheless, 81 percent of workers had a job during the darkest days of the Great Recession. This fact has stabilized household spending.

3. The unemployed are minding the gap. When household income declines, many families attempt to bridge the (hopefully temporary) gap by draining their savings or borrowing. The same NBER survey found that, among those who became unemployed, average household spending fell by a modest 3.5 percent. One-third of the unemployed had taken money out of savings, and 27 percent had received financial help from friends and family. A Pew Research poll confirms that many of the unemployed are receiving a helping hand. Forty-nine percent of Pew respondents reported loaning money to someone during the recession.

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Who Wants Gun Control?

Here's the million dollar question: Do you think it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns or to control gun ownership?

When Pew Research Center asked Americans to answer that question, here is what they found: 50 percent of the public believes gun control is most important, and 46 percent believe gun rights are most important.

Gun control is most important to the majority of 18-to-29-year-olds, women, blacks, Hispanics, college graduates, and people who are not registered to vote. Among registered voters, gun rights are more important than gun control, 51 to 45 percent.

Source: Pew Research Center

An Average Day: Work

On an average day, men are working less. The amount of time men aged 15 or older spent working fell 5 percent between 2005 and 2009, according to the American Time Use Survey. Men aged 45 to 54--the backbone of the American economy--spent 12 percent less time working in 2009 than in 2005. Behind the decline is unemployment.

Interestingly, men aged 65 to 74 spent 31 percent more time working in 2009 than in 2005. Behind the increase: men returning to or remaining in the labor force to make up for lost retirement savings.

Source: Unpublished tables from the American Time Use Survey, 2009 and 2005

It's the Internet Stupid, Part II

They keep trying to paste a smiley face on the numbers. "They" are the pundits, politicians, realtors, retailers, bankers, and everyone else whose livelihood depends on pretending that the Great Recession is just like all the others since World War II--a blip, a momentary pause, a temporary departure from the norm.

SMILEY FACE: New home sales were up 5.5 percent in November! REALITY: New home sales were 21 percent below their November 2009 level.

SMILEY FACE: The unemployment rate fell in December! REALITY: The job increase was well below expectations.

SMILEY FACE: Retail sales climbed 0.6 percent in December! REALITY: The biggest gains were in energy and food, and department store sales fell.

This is not a run of the mill recession, a blip, or temporary. This is a massive economic dislocation caused by the Internet. It is not over, it may get worse before it gets better, and it is not likely to get better for a generation. These numbers tell the story.

More than 1 million homes were foreclosed in 2010, a record. (RealtyTrac.com) The story begins with business. It is the nature of private enterprise to seek out and exploit every advantage in the marketplace. That is what business is supposed to do, and that is what it is doing. Those who were first to understand the Internet have used it to their advantage by globalizing their business, finding cheaper sources of labor and materials, and setting up systems that profit from instantaneous communication. Because of the Internet, the average stock is owned for only 22 seconds, according to economists. The speed of transactions creates an opportunity for entrepreneurs, but also opens the door to Internet savvy con men and crooks who can buy low and sell high in ways that our regulatory system has yet to comprehend. The Internet, and its crooks and con men, brought us the housing bubble and the foreclosure mess.

4.5 million Americans have been unemployed for a year or longer, a record. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Never before have so many American workers been unemployed for so long. Labor markets are in turmoil because the Internet has eliminated time and distance as barriers to business. Those with digital skills are making a living. But most of us--our livelihoods dependent on pre-Internet business models--are only muddling through. A large segment of workers faces economic catastrophe. With unemployment above 9 percent and no sign that it will fall much for years, this is a structural realignment. Companies with pre-Internet profit models are either collapsing entirely or ridding themselves of workers who are not Internet savvy--usually the older workers. Among the unemployed, those aged 55 or older are having the hardest time finding a job. Forty-one percent have been unemployed for a year or longer.

Median household net worth fell 30 percent between 2007 and 2009. (Federal Reserve Board) Now on to the politicians, most of whom are standing idly by as the Internet's crooks and con men destroy the middle class. This is not a right versus left thing. This is not a Republican Party versus Democratic Party thing. This is an old versus young thing. The 111th Congress was one of the oldest in U.S. history. The 112th Congress is not much younger. The median age of the current House of Representatives is 57. The median age of the Senate is an even older 61. Few of our elected representatives are fluent in digital. The problem is not that many of our politicians must depend on their younger staff to help them turn on a computer, use a keyboard, surf the web, text, or twitter. The problem is that they cannot comprehend how the Internet is transforming our world. They are intellectually incapable of crafting policies that will help us cope with our new problems or take advantage of our new opportunities. It will take a generation of elections before politicians fluent in digital replace the elderly statesmen from the paper and ink era.

Meanwhile, we are sitting ducks.

Television Time Up 15 Minutes

We are watching more TV. Americans aged 15 or older watched television for 2.82 hours a day on average in 2009, according to the American Time Use Survey. This is 15 minutes more than we spent watching television in 2005. Television time has increased in all but one age group: 15-19-year-olds are the only ones who spent less time watching TV in 2009 than in 2005.

Behind the rise in television viewing are bigger screens, more channels, and HD and DVR technology.

Source: American Time Use Survey, 2009 and 2005

Out of Work the Longest

Job seekers in Michigan have been looking for work the longest, according to a state-level analysis of unemployment. In 2009, the unemployed in Michigan had been looking for work a median of 19.7 weeks. South Carolina ranked second (19.6 weeks).

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Slow Recovery

Only 60 percent of the 1.7 million jobs lost in residential construction will be recovered by 2018, according to projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In that year, residential-construction related employment will account for 3.8 percent of the labor force--above the 3.0 level of 2008, but well below the 5.1 percent level of 2005.

Source: Monthly Labor Review, The U.S. Housing Bubble and Bust: Impacts on Employment

An Average Day: Shopping

On an average day, 40 percent of Americans aged 15 or older spend time shopping, either going to a store and/or using the Internet or telephone. Women are more likely than men to shop on an average day (44 versus 36 percent).

Source: American Time Use Survey

Big Spenders on Health Care

Health care costs are highly concentrated among those experiencing a health care crisis. Just 1 percent of the U.S. population accounted for 20 percent of health care spending in 2008. Five percent accounted for nearly half of the nation's health care spending.

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Statistical Brief 309, The Concentration and Persistence in the Level of Health Expenditures Over Time: Estimates for the U.S. Population, 2007-2008

On an Average Day: Grooming

On an average day, 75 percent of men aged 15 or older spend time grooming as a primary activity (meaning it is their main focus of activity). Among women, the figure is a somewhat higher 82 percent.

Source: American Time Use Survey

We Knew That

Every three years the Federal Reserve fields the Survey of Consumer Finances, asking American households about their assets, debts, and net worth. The last survey was taken in 2007, just before the economic downturn. Results from the 2010 survey will not be released until 2012.

Presented with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, the Federal Reserve took an unprecedented move and reinterviewed the 2007 SCF households two years later--in 2009--to measure the impact of the Great Recession on household wealth. The results of the 2009 follow-up survey will be released in a few months, but a comment in a methodological paper hints at the findings: "Changes for many people were dramatic over the period between the two surveys."

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Try, Try Again: Response and Nonresponse in the 2009 SCF Panel

An Average Day: Pets

On an average day, 15 percent of Americans aged 15 or older care for animals and pets as a primary activity (meaning it is their main focus of activity). Walking your dog counts. Sitting on the couch with your dog while you watch TV doesn't count. Women are more likely than men to care for pets on an average day (17 versus 12 percent).

Source: American Time Use Survey

An Average Day: Reading

On an average day, 24 percent of Americans aged 15 or older read for personal interest. The readers spend 1.42 hours (1 hour, 25 minutes) reading. Women are more likely than men to read on an average day (27 versus 21 percent).

Source: American Time Use Survey

No Health Insurance for Most of the Unemployed

Percentage of people who do not have health insurance, by employment status...

Employed: 19.0%

Unemployed: 52.3%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage, Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June, 2010

Years of Healthy Life

Expected years of life, at birth: 77.7

Expected years of healthy life, at birth: 66.7

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Life Expectancy Free of Chronic Condition-induced Activity LImitations Among White and Black Americans, 2000-2006

Many Do Not Have Access to Public Transportation

Percentage of households with public transportation available in their neighborhood, by homeownership status...

homeowners: 47%

renters: 70%

Source: American Housing Survey

South Most Likely to be Wireless-Only

Landline-only samples may be more of a problem when polling in the South, which is the region with the largest percentage of adults living in wireless-only households. Percentage of adults living in wireless-only households by region, January-June, 2010...

Northeast: 15.8%

Midwest: 26.6%

South: 29.3%

West: 23.5%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June, 2010

Wireless-Only Tops 50 Percent in 25-to-29 Age Group

Percentage of adults living in wireless-only households by age, January-June, 2010...

18-24: 39.9%

25-29: 51.3%

30-34: 40.4%

35-44: 27.0%

45-64: 16.9%

65+: 5.4%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June, 2010

Could Births Dip Below 4 Million?

In an end of the year data dump, the National Center for Health Statistics has released a flurry of reports on the nation's births: final birth statistics for 2008, preliminary birth statistics for 2009, and an unusual count of births through June 2010.

For the 12 months ending in June 2010, births fell to an annual 4,055,000. This is down from the all-time annual high of 4,316,233 in 2007. Yes, births could fall below 4 million in 2010.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

Is Nevada Growing?

The Nevada state demographer, Jeff Hardcastle, has estimated that Nevada lost 100,000 people in the past two years, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Yet the 2010 census results show Nevada's population growing 35 percent over the decade (to 2,700,551) and gaining 84,779 people in the last two years (a calculation made by comparing the 2010 census count with the Census Bureau’s estimate of Nevada’s population in 2008).

Who’s right? My guess is the state demographer. Nevada has been devastated by the Great Recession. It has the highest unemployment rate and the highest foreclosure rate in the country. Behind Nevada’s “growth” over the past few years is the Census Bureau’s probable underestimate of Nevada’s population in the intercensal years from 2001 through 2009. During those years, the state demographer’s estimates of Nevada’s population have consistently exceeded the Census Bureau’s. In 2008, the excess was 139,000. Given the hard times the state has experienced, the Census Bureau is likely to revise its estimate of Nevada’s intercensal population upward, revealing the recent loss.

Census Count Matches Bureau Estimates

The official count of the American population--308,745,538 on April 1, 2010--closely matches the Census Bureau's population estimates. The population clock on the Census Bureau's web site estimated 308,977,944 on that date. The bureau's demographic analysis middle range estimate for April 1 was 308,475,000.

No surprises.

Arizona Sees Biggest Decline in Births

The number of births fell 2.7 percent nationally between 2008 and 2009, but in Arizona the number fell by a much larger 7.1 percent. Other states ranking among the top ten in the percentage decline in births: Idaho, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rhode Island, California, Florida, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births Preliminary Data for 2009

Fewer Marriages in 2009

The number of marriages in the United States fell 3.8 percent between 2008 and 2009--to 2.7 million. Double digit declines occurred in California, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Oregon.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

Biggest Decline in Births Since 1973

The number of babies born in the United States fell by 2.7 percent between 2008 and 2009, the biggest drop since 1973. The 4,131,000 babies born in 2009 were 117,000 fewer than in 2008. Could this be the beginning of another Baby Bust generation?

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2009

Life Expectancy Declines

Life expectancy fell slightly in 2008, down by 0.1 years to 77.8 years, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. This measure of the nation's health has declined only three other times in the past thirty years: 2005, 1993, and 1980.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Data

It's the Internet Stupid!

Twenty years ago, when I was the editor of American Demographics magazine, we published an article entitled "The Fifth Medium," the purpose of which was to describe and name the Big Thing that was about to happen. Everyone who followed the trends could feel something coming, but no one knew quite what it would be.

"A new medium is emerging that may be more powerful than newspapers, magazines, and television put together," the American Demographics article announced. For want of a better word, we called it the "fifth medium" (the others were radio, television, newspapers, and magazines). We struggled to identify the fifth medium: "People call this new medium electronic publishing, on-line information, telecomputing, multimedia, or videotex. They are all evolutionary names for a beast that hasn't yet shown its full form."

Doesn't it make you want to scream, "It's the Internet, stupid!"

The identity of the beast is painfully obvious now, but it wasn't so back then. For proof, try a search of the New York Times archives by year for the number of articles that contain the word "Internet." Here's what you get:

• 1988: 3
• 1989: 7
• 1990: 17
• 1991: 9
• 1992: 12
• 1993: 89
• 1994: 375
• 1995: 1,241
• 1996: 2,218
• 1997: 2,779
• 1998: 4,057
• 1999: 7,737
• 2000: 10,134

On November 5, 1988, the word "Internet" appeared for the first time in the New York Times. The article was about Robert T. Morris, Jr., a Cornell University graduate student who unleashed a computer worm on what the Times calls "an international group of communication networks, the Internet." The other two articles of 1988 in which the word Internet appeared were also about the Morris worm, one of them noting that "many teenagers are treating Mr. Morris as a folk hero and are busy designing their own virus programs." (Mr. Morris is now Dr. Morris and a professor at MIT.)

For years, even as late as 1996, the Times felt the need to add explanatory descriptors whenever using the term Internet. In a 1990 article: "An international computer network known as Internet..." In a 1992 article: "a worldwide network called the Internet." In 1996: "the linkage of computers known as the Internet." By 1996, the word 'Internet' had become common public currency, says Wordiq.com. After that year the New York Times no longer felt the need to explain the Internet to its readers.

Although the public was familiar with the term Internet by the mid-1990s, most were not Internet users until more recently. In the early months of 2000, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project, only 46 percent of Americans were online. The figure topped 50 percent later that year. Today, 79 percent are online.

With that kind of penetration, you might think the Internet revolution is behind us, but you would be wrong. The Internet revolution has been slow to unfold and is only now--right now, this year--fully on top of us. What took so long? The demographics. The effect of technological change on human history unfolds at the pace of generational replacement (henceforth known as the Russell Rule). The Internet has been part of the fabric of our daily lives for only one generation, which is why the full force of the Internet is only now being unleashed. Among today's young adults (18 to 29), 95 percent are online, according to Pew. The figure is 87 percent among 30-to-49-year-olds, 78 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds, and just 42 percent among people aged 65 or older. The older generations have resisted the Internet, but they are being replaced by younger generations who live in "the cloud." A growing percentage of the world's population has never known a world without the Internet.

Future generations will see clearly how the Internet revolution led to the dislocations that are causing our current economic woes. In contrast, most of the generations alive today--including all historians, pundits, politicians, and most business leaders--are not in a position to comprehend this cause and effect. Here is their position: They are standing barefoot on a shore, gazing out at the ocean, and seeing for the first time strange white clouds on the horizon. What could be coming their way? It's the Internet, stupid!

Underemployed at Record High Too

Not only are the long-term unemployed at a record high, but so are the underemployed. The most recent issue of the Monthly Labor Review has an analysis of the nation's underemployed. Underemployment is defined as people employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they cannot find a full-time job or their work hours have been cut because of slack demand. In the fourth quarter of 2009, both the number of underemployed (8.9 million) and the incidence of underemployed (6.3 percent of all employed persons) was greater than in any previous quarter for the past 61 years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review

How the Great Recession Has Hurt Americans

For just $5 you can download the best study to date of the effects of the Great Recession on the average American. This National Bureau of Economic Research study (Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households, by Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder) is based on the smart, new American Life Panel, an Internet survey run by RAND. With findings as recent as spring 2010, the analysis shows that 39 percent of households have been severely hurt by the recession--meaning they have experienced unemployment, have negative equity in their home, are arrears in their house payments, or have had a foreclosure. Monthly household spending is also analyzed, revealing deep cuts in restaurant meals and health care.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 16407

Should Poor People Own Cell Phones?

Forty-four million Americans live in poverty, according to the latest Census Bureau statistics, a substantial 14 percent of the population. Who are the poor? They are people whose incomes fall below the level needed to buy what was deemed to be a nutritionally adequate diet in 1955 multiplied by three and adjusted for inflation. Sounds crazy, no?

Crazy, but all too true. Mollie Orshansky, an employee of the Social Security Administration, was charged in the early 1960s with creating a poverty measure. She and her colleagues never meant for the methodology they devised to become permanently enshrined in American economic policy. But politics being what it is, that's what happened. Orshansky believed her calculations would be updated every few years to account for rising living standards and changing spending patterns. No update has ever occurred. The poverty measure she created, based on a 1955 food consumption survey, is simply adjusted for inflation each year. Today, a family of four, is deemed to be poor if their income falls below $21,954.

Officially, poverty in the United States is defined by this income measure alone. The poor may or may not receive benefits such as food stamps, subsidized housing, or Medicaid. In fact, most of the poor do not receive these government benefits. The poor may or may not own a house, a car, a television, a microwave, or even a cell phone. In fact, 97 percent of the poor have a television, 79 percent have air conditioning, and most own a cell phone. As Adam Smith once cautioned, poverty is relative. Begrudging the poor the necessities of the 21st century makes no more sense than begrudging them 20th century basics like running water and indoor plumbing.

Census Counts to be Released Next Week

National and state populations counts for April 1, 2010, as well as congressional apportionment totals for each state, will be released on Tuesday, December 21, at 11:00 am.

Most Fail to Graduate from For-Profit Schools

Another damning report about for-profit universities. This one, from the National Center for Education Statistics, is a longitudinal study measuring how many students earned a degree within six years of starting a degree program at a post-secondary institution. The study examines the earned degrees in 2009 of students who entered school in 2004. Among students in 2004 who entered a degree program at a four-year institution, 51.5 percent of those who attended a public university had a bachelor's degree from that institution six years later. Among those who attended a private, non-profit university, the completion rate was an even higher 57.0 percent. Among those who entered a for-profit school, the figure was only 13.3 percent.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Persistence and Attainment of 2003-04 Beginning Postsecondary Students: After Six Years

Lower Life Expectancy for the Less Educated

Years of life remaining at age 65, by education...

Men

Not a high school graduate: 15.1 years

High school graduate: 17.8 years

More than high school: 20.8 years

Women

Not a high school graduate: 18.3 years

High school graduate: 21.4 years

More than high school: 24.3 years

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Education Reporting and Classification on Death Certificates in the United States

Biggest Increase in Unemployment Rate: Men Aged 45 to 54

Who has been affected the most by rising unemployment rates? It's not the usual suspects--young adults, blacks, or the poorly educated. Those groups have been coping with relatively high unemployment rates for years, so the increase in unemployment during the past few years has not been as great for them as it has for others who have long enjoyed low rates.

Between 2006 (when the unemployment rate reached its low for the decade) and November 2010, the biggest percent increase in the unemployment rate has been experienced by men aged 45 to 54. Their unemployment rate nearly tripled during the time period, rising from 3.1 to 9.1 percent, a 194 percent increase. The overall unemployment rate climbed by a smaller 113 percent during those years, from 4.6 to 9.8 percent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bet You Didn't Know

Percent of Americans aged 15 or older

who watch television on an average day: 82%

Source: American Time Use Survey