Childless by Choice

How many women choose to remain childless? Not many, according to a new report from the National Survey of Family Growth. Among all women aged 15 to 44, the 57 percent majority has had children and 43 percent are still childless. Among the childless, 81 percent intend to have children one day, 14 percent plan to remain childless by choice, and 5 percent are childless because they cannot have children.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15-44 Years in the United States: National Survey of FAmily Growth, 2006-2010

Projections of 2012 Voters

Nearly 18 million African Americans will vote in the 2012 presidential election, according to projections produced by Demo Memo Blog. A substantial one in eight voters will be black.

Hispanics will cast 11.6 million votes. The Hispanic vote will be smaller than the black vote because there are fewer Hispanic than black citizens and because Hispanics are much less likely than blacks to vote. Among citizens, only 49.9 percent of Hispanics voted in 2008 compared with 64.7 percent of blacks.

Non-Hispanic whites overwhelm most elections and 2012 will be no exception. Nearly 102 million non-Hispanic whites will vote on election day.

Projections of 2012 Voters by Race and Hispanic Origin
Total voters: 137.1 million (100%)
Non-Hispanic white: 101.7 million (74%)
Black: 17.8 million (13%)
Hispanic: 11.6 million (8%)

Source: Demo Memo Blog, estimates based on 2008-10 population growth rates and 2008 voting rates by race and Hispanic origin

The Need for Old Buildings

Character is key to economically vibrant cities, reports The Atlantic. And what creates character? One necessary feature is old buildings. As urban philosopher Jane Jacobs notes in her masterpiece The Death and Life of Great American Cities:

"Old ideas can sometimes use new buildings. New ideas must use old buildings."

That's because rent is cheap in old, run-down buildings, allowing aspiring entrepreneurs to try out ideas without costly overhead. Cities with old buildings in abundance have opportunities for economic growth that other cities can't match--no matter how much money they spend on new development. As Jacobs explains:

"The economic value of new buildings is replaceable in cities. It is replaceable by the spending of more construction money. But the economic value of old buildings is irreplaceable at will. It is created by time."

Boomer Inheritance

Twenty-three percent of the oldest boomers (born in 1946) have received an inheritance. On average, they inherited $110,000.

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Teen Births Plunge, Really

Fewer babies were born to women aged 15 to 19 in 2010 than in any year since 1946.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Rates for U.S. Teenagers Reach Historic Lows for All Age and Ethnic Groups

$9.2 Trillion in Retirement Accounts

As of the first quarter of 2012, Americans had accumulated $9.2 trillion in their retirement accounts, according to estimates by the Urban Institute. This figure is just 3 percent below the all-time high in retirement savings reached in the third quarter of 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

Does this mean we are out of the woods regarding our prospects for retirement? Not at all. First, consider the demographics. With the large baby-boom generation in the process of retiring now, the value of the nation's retirement accounts should be in the stratosphere. Instead, we're still playing catch-up. Second, most workers have saved little. According to the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey, 60 percent of workers have less than $25,000 in savings.

Legal Immigrants in 2011: 1 Million+

The number of legal immigrants coming to the United States topped 1 million again in 2011, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Last year, 1,062,040 people either arrived in the United States as legal permanent residents or already lived here and became permanent residents. The annual number of legal immigrants to the United States has topped 1 million every year since 2005.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2011

iPhones Reduce Deceptive Advertising

That is the finding from a study of ski resort advertising claims, a study that just happened to coincide with the introduction of a new iPhone app that allowed skiers to share information about snow conditions. What happened next is a lesson for every business.

Typically, ski resorts exaggerate levels of natural snowfall in their advertising--especially on weekends, according to researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Skiers have learned to view these snowfall claims skeptically. Interestingly, while the researchers were conducting the study--which focused on deceptive advertising--a new iPhone app became available that allowed skiers to easily share information about snow conditions in real time. The result: "Exaggeration falls sharply, especially at resorts with better iPhone reception."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Wintertime for Deceptive Advertising?

Religious Americans

The 58 percent majority of Americans say they are moderately or very religious. Here are the percentages by generation...

Millennials: 47%
Gen Xers: 56%
Boomers: 62%
Olders: 73%

Source: 2010 General Social Survey

New Survey of E-Reading

If you worry that reading is on the decline, worry no more. Fully 81 percent of Americans aged 16 or older read a book in the past 12 months, according to a Pew survey. The median number of books read in the past year is 8, and the figure does not vary much by age. It ranges from a low of 6 books a year among 30-to-49-year-olds to a high of 12 books a year among people aged 65 or older.

Print is still the most popular format for reading books. In the past year, 21 percent of adults have read an e-book. On an average day, 84 percent of the nation's book readers read a print book, 15 percent read an e-book, and 4 percent listen to an audiobook.

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, The Rise of E-Reading

Median Duration of Unemployment

The unemployed who found a job in 2011 had been job hunting for a median of 10.0 weeks. This was slightly shorter than the 10.4 weeks of 2010 but more than twice the 4.0 weeks of 2000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Search of the Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment, Monthly Labor Review, March 2012

Metropolitan Population Estimates: 2011

Metropolitan area population estimates for July 1, 2011 are now available from the Census Bureau. These are the first estimates of metropolitan populations since the 2010 census. They show slowing growth in many once rapidly growing many metropolitan areas, according to the bureau. Of the 50 fastest-growing metros between 2000 and 2010, only 24 were on the list in the 2010-11 time period.

That said, there is much inertia in demographic change (which is why demographics are an excellent tool for business planning), and many areas supposedly devastated by the Great Recession and the collapse of the housing bubble are still growing impressively such as Miami (31st in percent growth between 2010 and 2011), Riverside (58th), and Atlanta (61st). Even Las Vegas continues to grow.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates: Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

Boomer Plans to Move

Percentage of the oldest boomers (who turned 65 in 2011) who plan to move: 16%

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Boomers Retiring Sooner than Planned

The leading edge of the baby-boom generation--people born in 1946--turned 65 in 2011. Wouldn't you like to know what the oldest boomers are doing about retirement?

Now you can: the MetLife Mature Market Institute has been tracking the oldest boomers for years. The latest survey results show that, for boomers who turned 65 in 2011, retirement plans and reality are diverging. The 45 percent plurality of boomers who turned 65 last year are fully retired. Among the retirees, the 51 percent majority say they had to retire earlier than expected.

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Hispanic or Latino?

Do Hispanics prefer the term Hispanic or Latino? The answer is...

Prefer Latino: 14%
Prefer Hispanic: 33%
No preference: 51%

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, When Labels Don't Fit: Hispanics and Their Views of Identity

Biggest Strip Show on Earth

Number of persons arrested annually in the United States: 10 million.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

County Health Rankings

Usually, rankings of health status by geography are minimally interesting or useful. That's because demographics, not geographics, determine health. County Health Rankings is different because it lifts the veil on the socioeconomic characteristics that determine health. This interactive site lets you compare the health of counties in a state and see the characteristics that determine their status.

For example, Allendale County ranks worst in health among South Carolina's counties. Residents of Allendale are almost three times more likely than the average American to die prematurely--that is, before age 75. The characteristics of Allendale are those linked to poor health: a low level of education, 25 percent without health insurance, 19 percent unemployed, and every restaurant a fast-food establishment.

Source: University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute, County Health Rankings & Roadmaps

The Inflation Problem

Research has shown that financial know-how peaks in middle age (at an average age of 53, according to one study) and declines as people get older. Most of the research focuses on the vulnerability of aging Americans to financial scams. But there is another perhaps equally serious problem that arises from declining financial sophistication: the apparent inability of many older Americans to understand or account for inflation.

Here is an example from a column published in a local newspaper in my area, written by a retiree with a Ph.D. no less: "If you ordered a beer at Yankee Stadium during the 1949 World Series, it sold for 35 cents. Pretty nice price, by 2012 standards at least."

No, the price isn't nice. Beer is cheaper today than it was in 1949 after adjusting for inflation. Thirty-five cents in 1949 is the same as $3.35 today. You can easily buy a beer at a bar or restaurant for less than $3.35.

The seeming inability of many older Americans to understand and adjust for inflation may play a role in the outsized anger of the gray-haired crowd toward government spending. Without factoring in inflation, everything seems to be getting more expensive, services appear too costly, the wages of workers look excessive. It's not much of a leap from that kind of thinking to, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!" Could blinkered thinking about inflation explain a lot of the crazy--such as the recent vote by the Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee in the nation's oldest state (Florida) to lower the hourly minimum wage for tipped workers from $4.65 to $2.13?

The government's inflation calculator is here. Bookmark it.

Identity Theft

Percentage of Americans aged 18 or older who say they or another household member have been the victim of identity theft in the past 12 months: 10%.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Grandparents: Last of the Big Spenders

Grandparents are one of the few segments of the population that still has the time, money, and motivation to shop. According to a survey by AARP, they like to shop for their grandchildren.

The majority of grandparents--53 percent--spent at least $250 on grandchildren in the past year. One in four spent at least $1,000, and one in ten spent at least $2,500. Only 4 percent of grandparents did not spend any money on grandchildren. Among the spenders, nearly all bought birthday and holiday gifts for grandchildren. A substantial 53 percent helped their grandchildren with educational expenses. The 55 percent majority of grandparents say the current economy has had no affect on how much they spend on grandchildren. Other facts about grandparents...

• The average grandparent has 6.9 grandchildren (including great-grandchildren) 
• 61% say they do not see grandchildren who live furthest away often enough
• 39% communicate with grandchildren using technology such as email, texting, or Facebook
• 49% have adult grandchildren
• 76% were younger than 60 when their first grandchild was born
• 62% are retired

Source: AARP, Insights and Spending Habits of Modern Grandparents