Average Household Size Hits New Low in 2013

The average household was home to just 2.54 people in 2013, the smallest on record. The economic turmoil of the Great Recession barely disturbed the long-term decline in average household size. From 2.56 people in the average household in 2007, the figure inched up to 2.59 by 2010 and has fallen in every year since.

The powerful force shrinking the nation's households is the aging of the population. Millions of boomers are becoming empty nesters and others are becoming widowed. Among the 122 million households in the United States today, 61 percent are home to only one or two people.

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys

35% Are Obese

The good news is that obesity has not increased in the past few years. The bad news is that more than one-third of American adults are not just overweight, but obese. These are the latest findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which measures the height and weight of a representative sample of Americans to determine weight status.

In all, 79 million adults were obese in 2011-12, defined as having a Body Mass Index of 30 or higher. Obesity peaks among 40-to-59-year-olds at 39.5 percent. It is a slightly lower 30.3 percent among 20-to-39-year-olds. Among people aged 60 or older, 35.4 percent are obese.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prevalence of Obesity among Adults: United States, 2011-2012

Welcome Back!

http://www.census.gov

Americans Rate Online Education Poorly

A substantial 5 percent of Americans aged 18 or older, and 8 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, are currently taking online courses, according to a Gallup survey. Despite the popularity of online education, most Americans disparage the results.

The 52 percent majority of the public rates the quality of online education as only fair or poor. In contrast, 68 percent say the quality of education offered by four-year colleges is good to excellent, and 64 percent feel positively about community colleges. When it comes to "providing a degree that will be viewed positively by employers," only 33 percent think an online degree is equivalent to a traditional degree and 49 percent think it is worse.

Source: Gallup, In U.S., Online Education Rated Best for Value and Options; Viewed as Weakest in Terms of Trusted Grading and Acceptance by Employers

Before and After ACA: State by State

The number of Americans without health insurance will drop sharply in all but one state after the Affordable Care Act goes into effect in 2014. The Urban Institute calculates the numbers, and its analysis shows that the decline in the number of uninsured will range from 25 percent in Vermont to more than 50 percent in eight states The only state in which the uninsured are not expected to decline is Massachusetts, where a version of the ACA has been available to state residents for years. Only 4 percent of Massachusetts residents do not have health insurance.

The decline in the number of uninsured would be much greater if every state had adopted the Medicaid eligibility expansion as was intended by the ACA. Mississippi, one of 26 states to reject the expansion, will see only a 29 percent reduction in its 544,000 uninsured versus what would have been a 54 percent reduction if the state had expanded Medicaid. In fact, 28 states rather than just 8 would see at least a 50 percent reduction in their uninsured if every state had adopted the Medicaid expansion.

Source: Urban Institute, Eligibility for Assistance and Projected Changes in Coverage Under the ACA: Variation across States

2 Million Fewer Nuclear Families

The Great Recession and its aftermath changed the lives of young adults, and the nation is experiencing the consequences. The number of nuclear families (married couples with children under age 18) is shrinking because young adults are postponing marriage and childbearing, creating a new baby bust and driving the median age at first marriage to a record high.

In 2013, there were 25 million nuclear families, down from 27 million in 2007. Today, only 21 percent of the nation's households are headed by married couples with children under age 18. A larger 27 percent are headed by people who live alone.

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (currently unavailable due to government shutdown)

Default Rate Rises on Student Loans

More borrowers are defaulting on their student loans, according to the U.S. Department of Education. The three-year cohort default rate on student loans climbed from 13.4 to 14.7 percent between FY 2009 and FY 2010. The rate is calculated based on the cohort of borrowers whose loans entered repayment between October 1, 2009 and September 30, 2010 (FY 2010). During that time, more than 4 million borrowers entered repayment and 600,000 defaulted before September 30, 2012.

Among borrowers who attended for-profit institutions, the three-year cohort default rate was a hefty 21.8 percent. Public institutions had a lower default rate of 13.0 percent. Private nonprofit institutions had the lowest default rate—a still substantial 8.2 percent.

Source: Department of Education, Default Rate Continues to Rise for Federal Student Loans

Health Status Decline: 2000 to 2012

The self-reported health status of Americans is continuing to decline. Among people aged 18 or older in 2012, only 52 percent say they are in "very good" or "excellent" health. The figure was 56 percent in 2000.

The overall decline in health status is not surprising given the aging of the population. The percentage who report being in very good or excellent health falls with age from a high of 63 percent among 18-to-24-year-olds to a low of 41 percent among people aged 65 or older. But there's more to it than that, because younger adults are experiencing the greatest decline. The share of 25-to-44-year-olds who are in very good or excellent health fell by 8 to 9 percentage points between 2000 and 2012. Meanwhile, the share of people aged 65 or older who are in very good or excellent health grew by 4.5 percentage points during those years.

Percent who report "very good" or "excellent" health in 2012 
(and percentage point change since 2000)
Aged 18 to 24: 63.1% (-0.7)
Aged 25 to 34: 58.2% (-8.9)
Aged 35 to 44: 54.8% (-8.4)
Aged 45 to 54: 51.5% (-4.9)
Aged 55 to 64: 47.5% (-1.6)
Aged 65-plus: 40.7% (4.5)

Source: CDC, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Prevalence and Trends Data

Estimating the Size of the LGBT Population

"Do you consider yourself to be heterosexual?"

If you ask that question directly on a survey, you get one answer. If you ask it indirectly in a way that veils an individual's response to the specific question, you get another answer. This is the experiment described in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. Using the veiled survey method, in which respondents simply note the number of statements that apply to them (one of them being the statement about heterosexuality), the researchers found much greater LGBT identity than with the direct approach. "The veiled method increased self-reports of non-heterosexual identity by 65%," the authors report.

Because their sample was not representative of Americans as a whole, the researchers did not attempt to ascertain the LGBT share of the population. Instead, the study sought to show how survey methodology affects self-reports of LGBT identity. Interestingly, the veiled methodology also revealed greater anti-gay sentiment than is found in surveys that ask about anti-gay feelings directly. "Our finding that there is stigma attached to reporting anti-gay sentiments is perhaps even more surprising," conclude the authors.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Size of the LGBT Population and the Magnitude of Anti-gay Sentiment Are Substantially Underestimated, NBER Working Paper 19508 ($5)

Women Are Not the Majority of the American Labor Force

How can so many people get this so wrong? The latest example is in a recent New York Times op-ed, where Stephen D. King (chief economist at HSCB!) writes: "Women now make up the majority of the American labor force."

No they do not. In 2012, women accounted for 46.9 percent of the American labor force. Of the 155 million in the labor force, there were 73 million women and 82 million men. Men account for the 53.1 percent majority of the American labor force.

Less Time with the News

Younger generations spend less time than older adults following the news, and over the years the differential has not diminished. Since 2004, Pew Research Center has been tracking the number of minutes per day each generation spends watching, reading, or listening to the news. Here are the averages in 2012...

Average minutes per day following the news
Millennials: 46
Generation X: 66
Baby Boomers: 77
Older Americans: 84

Interestingly, these numbers have barely changed since 2004. "Today's younger and middle-aged audience seems unlikely to ever match the avid news interest of the generation they will replace, even as they enthusiastically transition to the Internet as their principal source of news," concludes Pew.

Source: Pew Research Center, Pew Research Surveys of Audience Habits Suggest Perilous Future for News

The Public Library

Percentage of Americans aged 18 or older who visited a public library in the past year: 60%.

Source: 2012 General Social Survey

How to Access Census Data During Shutdown

Received this email over the weekend...

The current shutdown in Washington is limiting the access that scholars and researchers have to vital materials, including the US Census website.  To that end, Oxford University Press and the Social Explorer team will open up access to Social Explorer – the premier US Census demographics website – for the next two weeks.  Social Explorer provides access to the US Census data from 1790 to 2010 and to the American Community Survey from 2005 through 2012.

For access to Social Explorer, simply email onlinereference@oup.com to request a username and password.

About Social Explorer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJfh7h1IpjY

Social Explorer provides quick and easy access to current and historical census data and demographic information. The easy-to-use web interface lets users create maps and reports to illustrate, analyze, and understand demography and social change. In addition to its comprehensive data resources, Social Explorer offers features and tools to meet the needs of demography experts and novices alike. From research libraries to classrooms to government agencies to corporations to the front page of the New York Times, Social Explorer helps the public engage with society and science.

Dental Emergencies

Number of emergency room visits for dental problems among people under age 65...

1999-2000: 1.0 million
2009-2010: 2.3 million

Among all emergency room visits in 2009-10 by people under age 65, a substantial 2.1 percent were for dental problems. Among 18-to-44-year-olds, the figure was a larger 3.2 percent.

Source: CDC, QuikStats: Percentage of Emergency Department (ED) Visits that were Dental-Related among Persons Aged under 65 Years, by Age Group—National Hospital Ambulatory Care Survey, 1999-2000 to 2009-2010

Boomer Retirements Are Boosting Job Openings

Myth: Boomers are delaying retirement and preventing young adults from finding jobs.
Reality: Job openings created by boomer retirees are greater than in the past.

Although boomers are delaying retirement, the large size of the generation means those who do retire are creating more job openings than the previous generation of retirees, according to a study by Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Between 1994 and 2003, retirements created 8 million job openings—or 18 job openings per 100 young adults (aged 18 to 29). During the 2012 to 2021 decade, boomer retirements will create a larger 14 million job openings—or 28 job openings per 100 young adults.

"By the end of the baby boom retirement phase over the next 15 years, the problem won't be lack of job openings, but not enough workers with the necessary skills to fill those openings," concludes the study.

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Failure to Launch: Structural Shift and the New Lost Generation

Why Are More Older Men Working?

The labor force participation rate of men aged 60 to 74 climbed from 33 percent in 1993 (a post-World-War-II low) to 44 percent in 2010. What accounts for this 11 percentage point increase? Are older men more likely to work because they haven't saved enough for retirement, or is it something else?

Most of the rise is accounted for by something else, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. That something else is their higher educational attainment. The greater educational attainment of men aged 60 to 74 accounts for most of the increase in their labor force participation over the past few decades.

Source: Center for Retirement Research, Can Educational Attainment Explain the Rise in Labor Force Participation at Older Ages?

More on the Government Shutdown

For a list of government statistical agencies that have been shut down, their web sites no longer accessible, see Pew's Federal Government Shutdown: The Data Casualties. For social scientists, not having access to these important data collections is a throwback to the pre-Internet 1980s, when we depended on paper documents. But this time, there's no paper trail.

Tracking the Uninsured Before and After ACA

Today is the first day of a new relationship between Americans and their health insurance. From now on, every American will be able to obtain health insurance and will be required to have it. How will the uninsured react to the Affordable Care Act, whose open enrollment period begins today? Thanks to the efforts of the Kaiser Family Foundation, we will know the answer.

Last summer, Kaiser fielded a baseline survey of a representative sample of uninsured 19-to-64-year-olds in the nation's most populous state, California. Kaiser plans to field three subsequent waves of the survey in 2014 and 2015, tracking the attitudes and behavior of the uninsured as they make their choices (or not) regarding health insurance.

So what were California's uninsured thinking in the summer of 2013, before health insurance became available to them? Eight out of ten believed they needed health insurance, and most also believed health insurance was worth the money. Most knew the Affordable Care Act would require them to obtain health insurance, and the 52 percent majority said they would get health insurance in 2014 as required. Of those who said they would not get health insurance, most thought it would be too expensive.

Stay tuned. In subsequent surveys we will find out how many of the uninsured bought health insurance, how they feel about the health insurance exchanges and the cost of insurance, and whether having health insurance has provided them with a greater sense of financial security.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, California's Uninsured on the Eve of ACA Open Enrollment

Correction: This is Worse than a Sad Day

It's a nightmare. This is what happens when you go to census.gov:

http://outage.census.gov/closed.html
Due to the lapse in government funding, census.gov sites, services, and all online survey collection requests will be unavailable until further notice.

No income statistics. No housing statistics. No population statistics. No state or local area statistics. Nada. Nothing.

This is a Sad Day for Demographers

From the CDC:
Due to the lapse in government funding, only web sites supporting excepted functions will be updated unless otherwise funded. As a result, the information on this website may not be up to date, the transactions submitted via the website may not be processed, and the agency may not be able to respond to inquiries until appropriations are enacted.

From childstats.gov:
Due to a lapse of appropriations and the partial shutdown of the Federal Government, the systems that host childstats.gov have been shut down. Services will be restored as soon as a continuing resolution to provide funding has been enacted.


From the USDA Economic Research Service:
Due to the lapse in federal government funding, this website is not available.

We sincerely regret this inconvenience.

After funding has been restored, please allow some time for this website to

become available again.