Biggest Job Declines, 2019 to 2029

Which occupation is going to shed the most jobs over the next decade? Just as the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the occupations likely to grow the most, it also identifies those likely to experience the largest job losses. Here are some of those occupations...

Occupations ranking among the 30 with the largest projected job decline, 2019 to 2029

1. Cashiers

2. Secretaries

9. Cooks, fast food

10. Tellers

14. Customer service representatives

16. Postal service mail carriers

21. Correctional officers

23. Chief executives

25. Retail salespersons

28. Travel agents

30. Computer programmers

Cashier is the occupation likely to lose the most jobs in the decade ahead as online sales and self-checkout eliminate the need for staff. The number of cashiers is projected to decline by 265,000 during the next decade. That still leaves a lot of cashiers in the workforce—more than 3 million in 2029—because cashier is one of the largest occupations. Secretaries, tellers, retail salespersons, travel agents, and computer programmers are also on the list of biggest losers because of technological change. No surprises there. But what's up with chief executives? The number of chief executives is projected to decline by 10 percent, falling from 288,000 in 2019 to 259,000 in 2029. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections, Occupations with the Largest Job Declines

Where Americans Get Their News

Digital devices are the news source for the great majority of Americans. Fully 86 percent of the public "sometimes" or "often" gets news from a smartphone, computer, or tablet, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The 60 percent majority "often" gets news from these digital devices. 

Percent getting news sometimes/often from...

Digital devices: 86%

Television: 68%

Radio: 50%

Print: 32%

Not only is digital the primary platform for getting news, but people prefer it that way. When asked which platform they prefer as a news source, 52 percent say digital devices, 35 percent say television, 7 percent radio, and 5 percent print.

Source: Pew Research Center, More than Eight-in-Ten Americans Get News from Digital Devices

Small Business Pulse Survey Takes a Hiatus

Jobs are disappearing, unemployment claims are surging, the pandemic is raging. In the midst of this turmoil, the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey is going on hiatus. Following the release of data collected during the week of January 4 through January 10, the survey is taking a pause. Check back in February for information about future releases of the survey, the Census Bureau says. 

The Small Business Pulse Survey has been measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the nation's small businesses. The bureau fielded the first survey in late April (April 26 through May 2) and continued collecting data weekly through June. The pandemic was supposed to be over by then. It wasn't. Phase 2 of the Small Business Pulse Survey began in early August and ended in mid-October. The pandemic still wasn't over. Phase 3 of the Small Business Pulse Survey began in mid-November and ended on January 10. "The data collection period for the Small Business Pulse Survey is now closed," reports the  Census Bureau on the survey's web page. 

Here are some of the findings from the last week of the survey, January 4-10...

• 75 percent of small businesses say the coronavirus pandemic has had a moderate to large negative effect on them, including 90 percent of businesses in accommodation and food service.
• 40 percent of small businesses say their revenues have fallen in the past week, including 56 percent of those in accommodation and food service.
• 12 percent of small businesses say they have reduced their paid employees in the past week, including 27 percent of those in accommodation and food service.
• 55 percent of small businesses say their business operations will not return to normal for more than six months, will never return to normal, or the business has permanently closed. Among businesses in accommodation and food service, 77 percent report this level of pessimism. 

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

Life Expectancy to Drop by More than 1 Year

Whenever life expectancy declines in the United States, it's a big deal. In the past 50 years, the National Center for Health Statistics has measured only four annual declines in life expectancy at birth, all of them small, ranging from a drop of 0.1 years to 0.3 years. 

Brace yourself: Because of Covid-19, life expectancy is projected to drop by 1.13 years in 2020, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). This is a very big deal. 

There's more. The PNAS study was undertaken months ago, and its projections are based on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) medium scenario of Covid deaths produced in early October. At that time, the medium scenario forecast a total of 321,000 Covid deaths. In fact, Covid killed 344,000 people in 2020, according to the CDC. This larger number is close to IHME's high scenario estimate of 348,000 deaths by the end of the year. The high scenario means an even larger life expectancy decline in 2020, according to the PNAS study—a drop of 1.22 years.

There's even more. Because of Covid's disproportionate impact on people of color, the life expectancy decline will be much greater for Blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic Whites. Under the medium death scenario, Hispanic life expectancy at birth in 2020 is projected to decline by 3.05 years, Black by 2.10 years, and non-Hispanic white by 0.68 years. 

"One of the many very distressing consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic is an estimated 39% increase in the Black-White life expectancy gap," note the study's authors. The life expectancy decline will also reduce what is called the Hispanic paradox (the longer life expectancy of Hispanics versus non-Hispanic whites) by more than 70 percent, the authors report.

Is the projected 2020 life expectancy decline just a blip or will it be long lasting? The study's authors are doubtful the decline is just a blip. "A rapid return to pre-Covid-19 life expectancy is unlikely," they conclude. Covid-19 deaths are continuing to mount. Also, say the authors, there are "the long-term detrimental health impacts for those who recovered from the virus, deaths from other health conditions that were precipitated by Covid-19, and social and economic losses resulting from the pandemic."

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Reductions in 2020 US Life Expectancy Due to Covid-19 and the Disproportionate Impact on the Black and Latino Populations

20% Increase in the Mortality Rate

File this story in the Not Surprising But Still Shocking category: the age-adjusted mortality rate in the United States in the second quarter of 2020 (April, May, June) was a stunning 20 percent higher than the age-adjusted mortality rate in the second quarter of 2019, the National Center for Health Statistics reports. 

There were 840 deaths per 100,000 population in the second quarter of 2020, NCHS reports, compared with 702 deaths per 100,000 population in April, May, and June of 2019—a 19.7 percent increase. 

Percent change in 2nd quarter mortality rate by age group, 2019–20 

Age 1 to 4:   -12.9%

Age 5 to 14:   -0.7%

Age 15 to 24: 21.4%

Age 25 to 34: 30.1%

Age 35 to 44: 29.3%

Age 45 to 54: 26.3%

Age 55 to 64: 20.6%

Age 65 to 74: 19.1%

Age 75 to 84: 17.4%

Age 85-plus:  19.4%

Children under age 15 were the only ones spared. Every other age group experienced a double-digit rise as Covid-19 deaths mounted in the spring of 2020. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Mortality Dashboard

"Unprecedented Demographic Stagnation"

You don't have to wait for 2020 census results to know the big trends of the past decade. That's because demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution has revealed the biggies in a recent report. According to Frey, this is what the 2020 census will show...

1. "Unprecedented stagnation in population growth," says Frey. The 2010s are likely to have been the decade with the slowest population growth in U.S. history. Until the 2010s, the U.S. was one of the fastest growing countries in the industrialized world.

2. Ongoing decline in geographic mobility. The annual mobility rate has been falling through most of the 2010s, reaching an all-time low of 9.3 percent in 2019–20. While the coronavirus pandemic may boost mobility temporarily, Frey thinks it will then resume its long-term decline.

3. The continued aging of the population, thanks to the Baby-Boom generation. 

4. "A first-time decline in the nation's white population," Frey predicts for the 2010s, largely due to the fact that whites are older than other race groups. "This means that other racial and ethnic groups are responsible for generating overall population growth," says Frey.

5. Great diversity in the Millennial and younger generations compared to Boomers and older Americans. "The generational divide in diversity...has impacted politics in ways that are sometimes divisive," Frey notes.

The biggest trend to be revealed by the 2020 census, according to Frey, is this: the nation is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation. One way to break out of the stagnation is to increase immigration, he says. "Given our rapidly aging native-born population, immigration will ensure growth—especially among the critical youth and labor force populations."

Source: Brookings, What the 2020 Census Will Reveal about America; Stagnating Growth, an Aging Population, and Youthful Diversity

Houston, We Have a Problem

"Because things have gotten so far off track in this country, we need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right." Do you agree or disagree? 

A substantial 44 percent of Americans "mostly" or "completely" agree with the statement, according to PRRI's 2020 American Values Survey. The survey was fielded last September, well before the January 6 Trump insurrection. Here is the percentage who agree by political affiliation...

We need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right (percent mostly/completely agreeing)

57% of Republicans

43% of independents

36% of Democrats

With so many Americans willing to take a wrecking ball to law and order, the Trump insurrection was inevitable.

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

31% Expect to Lose Employment Income Soon

The coronavirus pandemic is getting worse. Daily new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are at all-time highs. The vaccine rollout is fatally slow. Cold weather and the winter surge has driven the public back into hiding. It should have come as no surprise, then, that nonfarm payroll employment fell by 140,000 in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the first decline in payroll employment since April. 

It also should come as no surprise that a growing share of the public expects to lose employment income in the next four weeks (personally, or someone in their household). Thirty-one percent of Americans aged 18 or older have been telling the Census Bureau since mid-November that they expect to lose employment income soon, according to the Household Pulse Survey fielded December 9-21. The December job numbers prove them right.

Expect self or household member to lose employment income in next 4 weeks

Nov 11-Dec 21: 31% 

Sept 30-Oct 26: 24% (low)

April 23-May 5: 39% (high)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey

Record Low Household Growth in 2010s

The number of households in the United States grew by only 9.3 percent over the past 10 years—from 118 million in 2010 to 128 million in 2020. This is the slowest household growth on record, capped off by the first ever annual decline in households between 2019 and 2020. 

Number of households, 2010 and 2020 (in 000s)

	2020	2010	percent change
Total households	128,451	117,538	9.3%
With children under 18	33,464	35,218	-5.0

The number of households with children under age 18 fell by nearly 1.8 million during the decade. Behind the decline is the ongoing baby-bust, which is predicted to deepen as coronavirus further reduces births. 

Source: Census Bureau, Families & Living Arrangements

Delusions of Grandeur

"How would you describe your own personal weight situation right now?" When asked this question, only 41 percent of the American public admits to being overweight, according to a 2020 Gallup survey. 

The National Center for Health Statistics would beg to disagree. According to the measured height and weight of a representative sample of the population, nearly three out of four American adults are overweight...

Percent who are overweight

Fantasy: 41%

Reality: 73%

Men reported weighing an average of 200 pounds, Gallup notes. Women reported weighing 162 pounds. Men are right on the money. The National Center for Health Statistics measures men's average weight at 198 pounds. Women are shy of the mark, however. Their measured weight is an average of 171 pounds—significantly greater than their self-reported 162.

The percentage of men who want to lose weight and are seriously trying to do so was unchanged in 2020, Gallup reports. Not so for women. Although the 59 percent majority of women would like to lose weight, just 23 percent said they had been seriously trying to do so in the past year—the smallest percentage on record. 

Source: Gallup, Americans' Average Weight Holds Steady in 2020

Out-of-Pocket Drug Costs Plummet

Out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs has fallen steeply over the past decade. In 2018, those who purchased retail prescription drugs spent a median of $54 for them—42 percent less than the $93 spent in 2009, after adjusting for inflation.

An analysis of retail prescription drug spending based on data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey shows that out-of-pocket spending fell not just at the median, but at every point in the distribution of spending. Even those who spend the most on prescription drugs saw their out-of-pocket costs fall substantially. Those whose spending on retail prescription drugs is at the 95th percentile, for example, saw their annual out-of-pocket costs fall from $1,369 to $945 between 2009 and 2018—a 31 percent decline, after adjusting for inflation. 

Among people aged 65 or older, out-of-pocket spending on retail prescription drugs fell for those on Medicare Part D, for those with private drug insurance, and even for without prescription drug insurance. Older Americans covered by Medicare Part D spent a median of $160 on retail prescription drugs in 2018, down from $341 in 2009, after adjusting for inflation. The elderly with no drug coverage saw their median annual spending fall from $318 in 2009 to $177 in 2018. 

"In recent years overall affordability of retail prescription drugs has not deteriorated, and may have improved," the analysis concludes. 

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Out-of-Pocket Spending for Retail Prescribed Drugs by Age and Type of Prescription Drug Coverage, 2009 to 2018

Third Leading Cause of Death

On February 29, 2020, the CDC logged the first Covid-19 death in the United States. The next day, no one died from Covid—the last day without a Covid death this year. The cumulative number of deaths from Covid-19 topped 1,000 on March 26. They exceeded 10,000 on April 6. On April 23, Covid-19 became a leading cause of death in the United States. 

The National Center for Health Statistics tracks leading causes of death, compiling the top-10 list each year. We will have to wait a while before the top-10 list of 2020 is released, but we already know Covid-19—a cause of death unknown a year ago—will be near the top of the list. It will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States.

10 Leading Causes of Death in 2019

Total deaths	2,854,838
1. Diseases of heart	659,041
2. Malignant neoplasms	599,601
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries)	173,040
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases	156,979
5. Cerebrovascular diseases	150,005
6. Alzheimer disease	121,499
7. Diabetes mellitus	87,647
8. Nephritis	51,565
9. Influenza and pneumonia	49,783
10. Suicide	47,511

Let's see how the Covid-19 death count compares to the 10 leading causes of death in 2019. April 23 marks Covid's first appearance on the top-10 list. On that day, the cumulative number of Covid deaths in the U.S. surpassed the 47,511 suicides of 2019. The very next day, they exceeded the 49,783 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia. The day after that, they topped the 51,565 deaths from nephritis. So, in just three days in April, Covid not only made it onto the top-10 list, but had become the 8th leading cause of death. 

It didn't stop there. On May 16, Covid deaths surpassed those from diabetes, becoming the 7th leading cause of death. On June 24, Covid climbed into 6th place; on July 29th 5th place; on August 5th 4th place. A couple weeks later, on August 20, Covid-19 became the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States when the 173,490 cumulative Covid deaths surpassed the 173,040 deaths from accidents. 

On December 31, 2020, the CDC logged 3,298 deaths from Covid-19. The cumulative total for the year: 344,497, solidly in 3rd place as a cause of death. Let's hope Covid-19 is much lower on the list in 2021.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2019 and CDC Covid Data Tracker

Happy Holidays!

 Demo Memo is taking a holiday break. See you on January 4, 2021. 

2020 Comes to a Close

The year 2020 is coming to a close. Although this terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year is almost over, it will live in infamy as historians examine the many ways the pandemic has pummeled us. One of the best resources historians will have is the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Since late April, the bureau has surveyed households every week or two, probing the impact of the pandemic on Americans' wellbeing. Here are some of the latest findings, collected November 25-December 7.

Children's lives have been upended. Among adults in households with children in public or private school, 89 percent report that their child's classes in the 2020–21 school year are in a distance learning format.

College plans have been cancelled. Among adults in households where at least one adult was planning on taking postsecondary classes this fall, more than one-third cancelled their plans to take classes. 

Nearly half of Americans have lost money. Fully 48 percent of people aged 18 or older report that they or someone in their household experienced a loss of employment income since March 13, 2020. Thirty-one percent expect to lose employment income in the next four weeks.

Many are hungry. One in eight adults (13 percent) did not have enough to eat sometimes or often in the past seven days. Among adults in households with children, a larger 17 percent did not have enough to eat. 

Many are afraid to go to the doctor. One-third of Americans aged 18 or older have delayed getting medical care in the past four weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Worries about next month's rent. One-third of renters say they have only slight or no confidence in their ability to pay next month's rent. Among renters with children, the figure is 41 percent. 

Paying for usual household expenses is difficult for many. More than one-third of adults say they have found it somewhat or very difficult to pay for usual household expenses in the past seven days.

Restaurants are devastated. The 61 percent majority of Americans have avoided eating at restaurants in the past seven days. 

The year 2020 is coming to a close. Good riddance.

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, November 25-December 7

A New Low in Geographic Mobility in 2020: 9.3%

There has been a lot of talk about the numbers of people who have moved because of the coronavirus pandemic. According to a Pew Research Center survey fielded in June, a substantial 22 percent of adults had relocated because of the pandemic or knew someone who had. An Upwork survey fielded in October found 14 to 23 million workers planning to move because remote work gave them the opportunity to live anywhere they choose. Those moves will boost migration in the United States, Upwork said.  

Nice try, but no cigar. Yesterday the Census Bureau released the official numbers on geographic mobility in 2020. The data are collected by the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC). The survey asks respondents, "Were you living in this house or apartment one year ago?" Only 9.3 percent said no—a record low geographic mobility rate.  

Percent of people aged 1 or older who lived in a different house or apartment one year ago

2019–20: 9.3% (record low)

2018–19: 9.8%

2017–18: 10.1%

2010–11: 11.6%

2000–01: 14.2%

There are a couple of reasons why the CPS ASEC did not capture coronavirus-related moves. One reason is timing. The Census Bureau fields the ASEC in March of each year. Perhaps March was too early in the pandemic to capture those moves. The second reason is response rates. In the turmoil during the early weeks of the pandemic, response rates to the March 2020 CPS were abnormally low, according to Census Bureau research. Pandemic movers may have been (almost certainly were) less likely to respond to the survey than those who stayed put. 

For whatever the reason, the geographic mobility figures from the 2020 CPS do not shed any light on pandemic-related moves. This time next year, the 2021 geographic mobility data will be released. Perhaps they will show the anticipated uptick in migration...unless all the pandemic movers return to their pre-pandemic homes by March 2021.

Source: Census Bureau, Geographic Mobility, 2019 to 2020

Only 19% Answer Cellphone Calls from Unknown Numbers

Only 19 percent of Americans answer their cellphone to see who it is when called by an unknown number, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The 67 percent majority will not answer the phone but will check voicemail if left. A hardened 14 percent not only won't answer the phone, they won't even check any voicemail left by an unknown number. 

Percent who will not answer their cellphone if called by an unknown number

Aged 18 to 29: 74%

Aged 30 to 49: 81%

Aged 50 to 64: 84%

Aged 65-plus: 79%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Americans Don't Answer Cellphone Calls from Unknown Numbers

Obesity Is Rising in Every Age Group

Just ahead of the holiday festivities, the National Center for Health Statistics has issued a report on trends in obesity by age. Do you think this is just a coincidence? Yes, of course it is. Nevertheless, perhaps a review of the trends will rein in the temptation to overindulge in these final days of a difficult year. 

If obesity were a mystery to be solved, then the trends presented by the NCHS report provide an important clue. The clue is this: it's happening across the board. No age group is immune. Obesity is surging among the young, the middle-aged, and the old. Take a look...

Percent obese by age, 1988–94 to 2017–18

	total	20-39	40-59	60-plus
2017-18	42.4%	40.0%	44.8%	42.8%
2007-08	33.7	30.7	36.2	35.1
1999-00	30.5	26.0	33.5	33.5
1988-94	22.9	17.7	27.9	23.7

Note: Obesity is defined as a body mass index at or above 30.0 kg/m²

The data used to calculate these numbers are collected by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The survey doesn't simply ask Americans how much they weigh—those self-reports would fall far short of reality. NHANES quantifies reality by dispersing mobile examination units around the country, from which trained health technicians measure the height and weight of a representative sample of the public. Over the past three decades, the survey's measurements show a doubling in the percentage of Americans who are obese among 20-to-39-year olds, a 61 percent increase among 40-to-59-year-olds and an 81 percent rise among people aged 60 or older. That's a lot of overindulging.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prevalence of Overweight, Obesity, and Severe Obesity among Adults Aged 20 and Over: United States, 1960–1962 through 2017–2018

Seismic Shift in the Publishing Industry

Recent trends in the information publishing industry are not pretty—at least for workers in traditional publishing establishments. In the past four years, the book, magazine, and newspaper industries have shed a combined total of 104,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, jobs in internet publishing have increased by nearly the same amount...

Employment in the publishing industry, 2016 and 2020

	2nd quarter 2020	1st quarter 2016	numerical change	percent change
Book	51,450	61,919	-10,469	-16.9%
Periodical	72,648	97,212	-24,564	-25.3%
Newspaper	111,615	180,313	-68,698	-38.1%
Internet	289,794	195,714	94,080	48.1%

Today, the 55 percent majority of publishing jobs are in internet publishing, up from just 37 percent in 2016.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internet Publishing Employment Up 48 Percent, First Quarter 2016 to Second Quarter 2020

Fewer Households in 2020

The number of households in the United States fell in 2020 for the first time in the history of the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey household series dating back to 1960. The decline was small—a loss of just 128,000 households between March 2019 and March 2020—but even a small decline is significant. It marks the turmoil of the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, when many left their homes to join family and friends for what seemed at the time to be a short-lived disruption.

Usually, the number of households in the U.S. grows by more than 1 million a year. That has been the case in 41 of the past 70 years. The largest single-year gain was in 1980, when the number of households surged by 3.4 million. The smallest increase was in 2009—up by just 357,000 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. 

Households did not decline in every demographic segment, of course. Here are the segments with the biggest losses...

Householders under age 30: The number of households headed by people under age 30 fell by more than 1.2 million between 2019 and 2020—an 8 percent decline. Some of the shrinkage can be accounted for by college students living off campus who returned to their parents' home when college classes went online. (Students living in college-owned housing are already counted as living with their parents.) 

Single-person households: The number of people who live alone fell by 281,000 between March 2019 and March 2020. Almost the entire decline occurred among men who live alone, their number falling by 273,000 versus an 8,000 decline for women. Why the difference? Most women who live alone are aged 55 or older. Most men who live alone are under age 55. Because of the age difference, women who live alone are less likely to be college students and less likely than their male counterparts to be hurt by the Covid-19 Recession. 

Asian, Black, and Hispanic households: The number of households headed by Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics fell by a combined 332,000 between March 2019 and March 2020. Asian households saw the largest drop, with 128,000 fewer households in 2020—a 1.8 percent decline. The number of Black households fell by 113,000 and Hispanic households by 91,000. 

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Household Tables

Not Wearing a Mask? 73% Are Mad at You

Many, many more Americans are angry about people not wearing a mask in public than are upset by stores requiring customers to wear masks, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Fully 73 percent of the public is bothered "a lot" or "some" when people do not wear masks in public places, Pew finds. So, if your goal is to goad, not wearing a mask is a good way to do it. 

Only 28 percent of the public is bothered "a lot" or "some" when stores require customers to wear masks. So, if you're a business trying to decide on the right thing to do, this is a no-brainer.

Percent bothered a lot/some when people around them in public places do not wear masks

Men: 69%

Women: 75%

Asians: 83%

Blacks: 80%

Hispanics: 76%

Non-Hispanic whites: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 68%

Aged 30 to 49: 70%

Aged 50 to 64: 71%

Aged 65-plus: 81%

Democrats: 87%

Republicans: 55%

Source: Pew Research Center, Intent to Get a Covid-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases