First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2013

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2013: 48.6%

Finally, some good news. The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed 1.1 percentage points between the third and fourth quarters of 2013, to 48.6 percent. Although still below 50 percent, the trend is in the right direction. 

The nation's first-time homebuyers have long been 30-to-34-year-olds, the age group in which homeownership becomes the norm—rising above 50 percent. Until the Great Recession, that is. Beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. It bottomed out at 46.9 percent in the third quarter of 2012. The recent uptick in the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds is welcome news for the housing industry.

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 65.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, slightly higher than the 65.2 percent of one year ago.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

We Will Ask if You Voted

That's the way to increase voter turnout, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. In an experiment designed to determine the effect of social pressure on voting behavior, researchers discovered that social image plays a role in voter turnout. "People vote because others will ask," say the researchers. If people are informed before an election that they will be asked after the election whether they voted, more turn out to vote.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Voting to Tell Others, NBER Working Paper 19832

Why Everyone Needs Health Insurance

A new report shows just how big a problem the lack of health insurance turns out to be. Not only are the uninsured at risk of financial ruin, but so are their families. 

In 2012, more than one in four (27 percent) American families experienced a financial burden from medical care. "The family perspective is important to consider when examining financial risk because significant expenses for one family member may adversely affect the whole family," explains the National Center for Health Statistics in Financial Burden of Medical Care: A Family Perspective. "Health insurance coverage is one way for a family to mitigate financial risk associated with health care costs."

Among families in which all members have health insurance, 21 percent experienced the financial burden of medical care in the past year. Among families in which some are insured and some are not, fully 46 percent had a problem paying for medical care—meaning they had difficulty paying a medical bill, they currently have medical bills being paid over time, or they currently have medical bills they can't pay at all.

The Great Recession Changed Eating

The Great Recession may have dinged our wallets, but it improved our diets. Working-age Americans (those born from 1946 through 1985) cut their calories and ate fewer fast-food meals in 2009-10 than in 2007-08, according to data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Total daily calorie consumption fell during those years, as did daily calories from fast food. Consumption of saturated fat and cholesterol was also down. The number of fast food meals declined, and the number of family meals prepared at home increased. These changes in eating habits were not solely due to the decline in household income during the Great Recession, says the USDA, but also due to the increased time available for shopping and preparing food at home.

Are these changes permanent, or will we revert to our bad habits as the economy improves? The USDA analysis suggests that some of the change may be permanent because a growing share of consumers are paying attention to nutrition. Between 2007-08 and 2009-10, the percentage of working-age adults who say they use the Nutrition Fact Panel always/most of the time when buying food climbed from 34 to 42 percent.

"Diet quality may not decline if consumers continue to pay closer attention to the nutritional quality of the food they consume," concludes the USDA. Even if we eat out more often—as seems likely— there's hope. According to the report, "the 2010 Affordable Care Act mandates that restaurant chains with more than 20 locations list the caloric content of each standard menu item, which would make it easier for consumers to identify lower calorie and otherwise healthier choices when eating away from home."

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Changes in Eating Patterns and Diet Quality among Working-Age Adults, 2005-2010

Household Income Stable in December 2013

That's a wrap, folks. Yet another month of income stability brings 2013 to an end with no change in median household income, according to estimates by Sentier Research. The December 2013 median of $52,297 is not statistically different from last month's median or the median in December 2012, after adjusting for inflation. Sentier's median household income estimates come from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey, providing a preview of the official annual figure that will be released by the bureau next summer. Now you know (before everyone else) that median household income in 2013 will be pretty much the same as it was in 2012.

Although median household income has not changed significantly in the past year, the December 2013 median was 2.4 percent higher than than the $51,079 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. "We still have a significant amount of ground to make up to get back to where we were before," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "but at least we have shown some improvement since the low point." 

Median household income in December 2013 was 4.7 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.4 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.5 percent lower than the January 2000 median.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends Series: December 2013

Part-Time Professors

Among the nation's 1.6 million college teachers, only 51 percent are employed full-time. Forty-nine percent of college teachers are part-time workers. Here is the percentage of part-time professors by type of school...

Four-year schools
36% of teachers at public schools
48% of teachers at private, nonprofit schools
85% of teachers at private, for-profit schools

Two-year schools
69% of teachers at public schools
51% of teaches at private, nonprofit schools
53% of teachers at private for-profit schools

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, 2004-09; and Employees in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012

States with Highest Domestic Migration Rates, 2012-13

The mobility rate of Americans has plunged over the past few decades, falling to historic lows in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Nevertheless, Americans are still moving and some states are attracting more of those movers than others. Here are the 10 states with the highest rates of net domestic migration (meaning more U.S. residents are moving into the state than out of the state per 1,000 population) between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013...

1. North Dakota

2. District of Columbia

3. Colorado

4. South Carolina

5. South Dakota

6. Montana

7. Florida

8. Nevada

9. Wyoming

10. Texas

Overall, 21 states and the District of Columbia had positive net domestic migration rates between 2012 and 2013. The five states with the largest negative net domestic migration rates were New Mexico, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and Alaska.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Planning to Spend More, except on Housing

Americans are planning to spend more on a variety of big-ticket items, according to the latest Harris survey. A growing percentage are planning to take a vacation, buy a computer, or buy/lease a new car or truck. Fewer are trying to cut spending on entertainment or restaurants.

Given the greater optimism about spending on a range of items, it is interesting to note what hasn't improved: the outlook for housing. When asked whether they planned to move in the next six months, only 18 percent answered yes—the same percentage as in 2008. When asked whether they planned to buy a house or condo in the next six months, only 8 percent said yes compared with 10 percent in 2008.

Source: Harris Interactive, Signs of Optimism—or at least, Acceptance—in American Spending Trends

Alternative Credentials Can Boost Earnings

Is it time to expand our notion of what constitutes higher education? According to the Census Bureau, the answer might be yes. In a first, the Census Bureau has collected and analyzed data on Americans who hold educational credentials other than an academic degree—called "alternative credentials." These include certifications through an examination process, licenses that must be renewed periodically, and educational certificates.

The number of adults with alternative credentials is substantial. In 2012, fully 46 million Americans aged 18 or older had professional certifications or licenses (22 percent of adults) and 19 million had educational certificates (9 percent). Including these credentials in measures of educational attainment would change our understanding of who has post-secondary education. Among the 59 million Americans with no more than a high school diploma, 11.2 million have a professional certification or license. "If this alternative credential were incorporated into an expanded measure of education, these 11.2 million people might be recategorized into the 'more than high school' category, representing a shift of almost 5 percent of the adult population," explains the Census Bureau.

Do alternative credentials boost earnings? Only for workers without a bachelor's degree. Among full-time workers with a high school diploma and no alternative credentials, median monthly earnings in 2012 were $2,500 per month. For workers with an educational certificate, earnings were a higher $2,917 per month. For those with a professional certification or license, earnings were $3,053 per month. For workers with both types of alternative credentials, earnings topped out at $3,200 per month. "At low levels of regular education, there is routinely an earnings premium for a professional certification or license or an educational certificate," says the Census Bureau.

Source: Census Bureau, Measuring Alternative Educational Credentials: 2012

Print Books Still Popular among Young Adults

Percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who read a print book in the past year: 73%
Percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who read an e-book in the past year: 37%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, E-Reading Rises as Device Ownership Jumps

The Crime Problem

Percentage of Americans who think crime is a "very" or "extremely" serious problem...

In the United States: 55%
In their local area: 13%

Source: Gallup, More Say Crime is Serious Problem in U.S. than Locally

How Many Movies?

Two out of three Americans say they're going to the movies less often than they did a few years ago, according to a Harris survey. By generation, here is the percentage of adults who went to a movie in the past year (and the average number of movies seen during the year)…

68% of total adults (4.8 movies)
83% of millennials (6.3 movies)
73% of generation Xers (5.3 movies)
59% of baby boomers (3.6 movies)
44% of older Americans (3.2 movies)

Source: Harris Interactive, The Silver Screen Slump: Americans Say They're Going to the Movies Less Often

Why This Housing Boom is Different

Because homeownership has declined in most age groups, particularly among householders under age 35, and because the least expensive houses have seen the biggest price increases, the St. Louis Fed concludes: "The current housing boom is the first nationwide boom since the postwar era not driven by increased demand for owner-occupied housing."

What's behind the boom? Private and institutional investors are buying low-priced houses and turning them into rental units.

High School Sophomores 10 Years Later

To determine how today's young adults are faring, the National Center for Education Statistics has been tracking a representative sample of 2002 high school sophomores over the past decade. The status of these young adults in 2012, at age 26, reveals how hard it has been to grow up during the Great Recession.

More than 80 percent of the high school sophomores of 2002 completed high school and entered a post-secondary education program. A decade later, 33 percent had a bachelor's degree, 32 percent had some college but no degree, and 19 percent had a certificate or associate's degree. Sixty percent of those who entered a post-secondary education program borrowed money to pay for school.

Among those with a bachelor's degree, 78 percent were employed full-time in 2012 but only 33 percent earned $40,000 or more. One in five had lost a job since January 2006. Fully 46 percent had debts of $30,000 or more. The 52 percent majority were single—neither married nor living with a partner. About one in five lived with their parents, and most lived within 100 miles of their 2002 residence. These are the success stories.

Among the young adults with some college but no degree, a smaller 64 percent had a full-time job in 2012 and only 14 percent earned $40,000 or more. More than 40 percent had lost a job since January 2006. Twenty-two percent had debts of $30,000 or more, despite having no diploma to show for it. More than one in four lived with their parents and most lived within 10 miles of their 2002 residence.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002): A First Look at High School Sophomores 10 Years Later

Who Is A Boss?

Percentage of workers who say they are the boss or manager where they work…

Men: 16%
Women: 10%

Non-Hispanic whites: 16%
Non-Hispanic blacks: 6%
Hispanics: 4%

Baby boomers: 17%
Gen Xers: 16%
Millennials: 4%

Source: Pew Research Center, Why It's Great to be the Boss

One in Three Americans Experienced Poverty

In a three-year time period, nearly one-third of Americans experienced poverty, according to a Census Bureau report. During the 36 months from January 2009 through December 2011, fully 31.6 percent of the population was poor for at least two months.

By race and Hispanic origin, the percentage of the population in poverty for at least two months ranged from a high of 49.6 percent among Hispanics to a low of 25.4 percent among non-Hispanic whites. By age the percentage was as high as 40.6 percent among children, 31.0 percent among adults aged 18 to 64, and 15.7 percent among the elderly. By educational attainment, the 50.6 percent majority of those without a high school diploma experienced at least a two-month spell of poverty. Even among those with some college education, a substantial 22.9 percent experienced at least two months of poverty during the three-year time period under analysis.

Among those who experienced poverty, the median length of a poverty spell was 6.6 months. Only 3.5 percent were poor for the entire 36 months.

Source: Census Bureau, Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Poverty, 2009-2011

Black Smartphone Ownership by Age

The 56 percent majority of African Americans own a smartphone, according to a Pew Internet and American Life Project report. This figure is not statistically different from the 53 percent ownership rate among non-Hispanic whites.

The Pew report compares black and white technology use and device ownership. The analysis finds blacks less likely than whites to have a broadband connection at home (62 versus 74 percent) but equally likely to own a smartphone. Among young adults, blacks are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to use Twitter (40 versus 28 percent).

African American smartphone ownership by age
Aged 18 to 29: 85%
Aged 30 to 49: 67%
Aged 50 to 64: 41%
Aged 65-plus: 18%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, African Americans and Technology Use

Desktop Computer Ownership Declines

Ownership of a desktop computer is becoming less common, according to a Gallup survey. Only 57 percent of Americans owned a desktop computer in 2013, down from 65 percent in 2005 as young adults increasingly turn to laptops, tablets, and smartphones for their computing needs.

Desktop computer ownership is more common among Americans aged 65 or older (58 percent) than among 18-to-29-year-olds (41 percent). Laptop computer ownership is more common among young adults (79 percent) than people aged 65 or older (41 percent).

Tablet computer ownership is more similar, with 34 percent of young adults and 25 percent of the elderly owning a tablet computer. The biggest gap is in smartphone ownership: 88 percent of young adults own a smartphone versus only 25 percent of the elderly.

Source: Gallup, Americans' Tech Tastes Change with Times

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2022

By 2022, non-Hispanic whites will account for only 61 percent of the 163 million workers in the American labor force, down from 66 percent in 2012. The number of non-Hispanic white workers will shrink by 2.5 million during the decade. In contrast, the number of Hispanics in the labor force will grow by 6.8 million, blacks by 1.8 million, and Asians by 1.9 million.

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects what the labor force will look like in ten years. According to the latest projections, this is what the 2022 labor force will look like...

60.8% non-Hispanic white
19.1% Hispanic
12.4% black
  6.2% Asian

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2012-2022

Household Income Stable in November 2013

Another month of income stability: median annual household income was unchanged in November 2013, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The November median of $52,163 was not statistically different from the October 2013 median, after adjusting for inflation. Sentier's median household income estimates come from its analysis of the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. They provide a preview of the official annual figure that will be released by the bureau next summer. 

Median household income has not changed significantly in the past year, reports Sentier. But the November 2013 median was 2.4 percent higher than than the $50,927 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. "We still have a significant amount of ground to make up to get back to where we were before," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "but at least we have shown some improvement since the low point." 

Median household income in November 2013 was 4.6 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.4 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.5 percent lower than the January 2000 median.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends Series: November 2013

More Older Men at Work in 2022

The labor force participation rate of older men is projected to rise substantially by 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among men aged 65 or older, labor force participation will rise to 27.2 percent by 2022, up from 23.6 percent in 2012 and 16.1 percent in 1992. Here are actual and projected labor force participation rates of older men by age in 1992, 2012, and 2022...

Men aged 62 to 64
2022: 60.5
2012: 54.6
1992: 46.2

Men aged 65 to 69
2022: 41.6
2012: 37.1
1992: 26.0

Men aged 70 to 74
2022: 28.8
2012: 24.2
1992: 15.0

Labor force participation will rise among women too, but their rates will remain below those of men. Despite these increases, the overall labor force participation rate for Americans aged 16 or older will fall from 63.7 to 61.6 percent between 2012 and 2022. Behind the decline is the aging of the population.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2012-2022

Fastest Growing States, 2010 to 2013

Between 2010 and 2013, the U.S. population as a whole grew 2.2 percent to 316 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 7.3 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state: Rhode Island's population fell by 0.1 percent during those years. These were the 10 fastest growing states from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013...

1. North Dakota, 7.3%
2. District of Columbia, 6.8%
3. Texas, 4.8%
4. Utah, 4.6%
5. Colorado, 4.4%
6. Florida, 3.8%
7. South Dakota, 3.5%
8. Arizona, 3.4%
9. Washington, 3.4%
10. Wyoming, 3.3%

Source: Census Bureau, State Population Estimates