Dear Social Scientist

You do important research. You connect the dots for the rest of us. But if you want the rest of us to marvel at your findings, please explain your research in a way that the average journalist or armchair pundit can understand. Otherwise, your work will fall into the black hole of good intentions, never to be seen again.

Case in point: The Federal Reserve Board's new update of household wealth. Important stuff. But the written analysis is so complex that the findings were virtually ignored by the media. Journalists could not make sense of it. The supplemental tables contained calculations that could not be replicated using the numbers shown, causing the average armchair pundit to throw up his hands in disgust. (See my analysis of the wealth update here, here, and here.)

Another example: A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research on the effect of health crises on household wealth. That sounds interesting, and it is timely. But the analysis is written for statistics geeks, making the findings (yes, health crises do affect wealth, even across generations)  inaccessible to journalists who might have reported on the results.

Please summarize your findings. Write in plain English. Make the results notable and quotable. In doing so, your social science research may escape the black hole and become a shining star, helping us navigate into the future.

Big Numbers

More than 111 million Americans are Asian, black, Hispanic, or some other minority—36 percent of the total population, according to the 2010 census. That's enough to sit up and take notice, especially because so many states (20, plus the District of Columbia) have large minority populations.

The states in which minorities account for at least one-third of the population: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

The states in which fewer than 10 percent of the population is minority: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Source: Bureau of the Census, An Overview: Race and Hispanic Origin and the 2010 Census

The Aging of Housing

The average household lives in a housing unit with a median age of 35 years. In other words, half the nation's occupied housing units were built in 1974 or earlier and half were built after that year, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey.

The nation's housing stock renews slowly. Very slowly. And the rate of renewal is slowing, too. In 1999, the median age of the nation's occupied housing units was 30 years, with half built in 1969 or before and half after that year. In 1989, the median age of occupied housing units was 26 years, with 1963 the median year of construction. Despite the housing bubble and overbuilding in many parts of the country, the occupied housing stock is older today than it was ten or twenty years ago.

At the current rate of renewal, it will take more than 60 years before the houses being built in 2011 or later account for half the occupied housing units in the United States. Bottom line: If we want to see widespread housing innovation in our lifetimes--such as greater energy efficiency, digital home integration, and improved access to public services--then it must occur through rehabilitation of existing structures and communities rather than through new construction and developments.

Who Goes to the Movies?

Among Americans aged 18 or older, 53 percent have been to a movie in the past year. Here is the percentage by age...

18-24:  74%
25-34:  65%
35-44:  60%
45-54:  53%
55-64:  46%
65-74:  32%
75+:  19%

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, 2008 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts

The Mystery of Travel Statistics

Ever wonder what would happen if we privatized our demographic and economic data collection systems? To find out, take a look at the sorry state of travel statistics. You would think an industry of such importance to the U.S. economy would have a readily accessible trove of numbers, trends, and insights available to reporters, researchers, entrepreneurs, and armchair pundits. Instead, the statistics are locked up in organizations run by lobbyists for the travel industry, which charge hundreds of dollars for research publications on top of hefty membership fees. Google the government agency in charge of travel information, and you will click upon the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, self-described as "an official U.S. Government site produced and maintained by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries." Except for summary statistics, the annual reports go for $1,000 and up. Chilling.

Couch Potatoes

Percentage of American adults who are physically inactive: 33%.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009

The Housing Market's Problem

Yes, the unemployment rate is falling. Slowly. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate declined to 8.8 percent in March, down from 8.9 percent in February. We may be on the road to recovery, but our progress is blocked by what has been destroyed: confidence. The average American worker feels much less secure in his job than he did a few years ago. The percentage who think there is no chance they could lose their job in the next year, as shown in the post below, fell from 71 to 52 percent between 2000 and 2010, according to the General Social Survey.

This insecurity might be good news for businesses that want to hold down wages. But it is a disaster for the housing market. With the threat of unemployment looming over them, how many will be brave enough to buy a house? Apparently, not many.

Fear of Job Loss

Percentage of American workers who think it is "not likely" that they will lose their job in the next 12 months...

2010:  52%
2008:  59%
2006:  64%
2004:  64%
2002:  63%
2000:  71%

Source: General Social Surveys

A New Baby Bust?

Fertility rates fell more rapidly between 2007 and 2009 than they have in any two-year period during the past thirty years, according to a new report by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Birth rates fell among women in every age group under age 40. Among women aged 20 to 24, the birth rate fell to the lowest level ever recorded (96.3 births per 1,000 women). Births also fell in every race/Hispanic origin group, with the largest decline among Hispanics.

By state, fertility rates fell or were unchanged in every state. The biggest declines were in Arizona (-12%) and Nevada (-10%). Other states with an above average decline in fertility (more than 4%) were: California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Recent Decline in Births in the United States, 2007-2009

Little Savings

Percentage of workers who have saved $100,000 or more: 24%.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey

The Boomer Inheritance

How has the Great Recession affected the long anticipated inheritance of the baby-boom generation? According to a new study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the total amount still to be inherited by the baby-boom generation fell from $6.0 trillion in June 2006 to $5.2 trillion in June 2010 as stock and housing values declined.

Overall, two-thirds of boomer households will ultimately receive an inheritance. According to the researchers, $2.4 trillion has already been inherited by the 17 percent of boomer households that have so far received an inheritance. Median value: $78,000 per household. Fifty-eight percent of boomers still have at least one living parent, so most have yet to receive an inheritance, say the researchers, who estimate the median amount still to be inherited at $47,000 per household.

The researchers caution that the amounts to be inherited by boomers "are typically not large enough to be life-changing. Therefore, boomer households need to make many of their key financial decisions before they ever receive any inheritance."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, "How Important Are Inheritances for Baby Boomers?"

Media Out of Sync

"The public's news interests this week are far out of sync with the news media's coverage," reports the Pew Research Center. Take a look:

Percentage of people who are following the news about Japan very closely: 57%
Percentage of news coverage devoted to Japan: 15%

Percentage of people who are following the news about Libya very closely: 15%
Percentage of news coverage devoted to Libya: 41%

Source: Pew Research Center, Public Stays Focused on Japan as Media Turns to Libya

Televisions, Computers, and Rechargeables

Number per household (percent distribution)...

Televisions:
0	1.5%
1	24.2%
2	37.5%
3	26.6%
4	14.2%
5+	9.7%
Computers:
0	27.4%
1	46.9%
2	24.3%
3	9.5%
4	3.6%
5+	2.0%
Rechargeable Electronic Devices:
0	11.4%
1 to 3	57.9%
4 to 8	36.4%
9+	7.9%

Source: EIA, 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey

Metropolis

Eighty-three percent of Americans live in one of the nation's 366 metropolitan areas.
One in ten lives in New York or Los Angeles.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010

Vehicle Values Fall

Car and truck sales plunged during the Great Recession. Instead of buying new models, Americans clung to their depreciating automobiles. This explains the steep drop in the median value of household vehicles between 2007 and 2009.

In 2007, the median value of the vehicles owned by the average household was $16,200 (in 2009 dollars). By 2009, the figure had dropped to $12,000--a 26 percent decline, according to the Federal Reserve Board's analysis of household wealth. For much more data by demographic characteristic, see the appendix tables that accompany the Fed report, Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009. For important information on how to interpret the tables, see my earlier post.

An Average Day: Sleeping

On an average day, amount of time people aged 15 or older spend sleeping...

Weekdays: 8.40 hours
Weekends: 9.34 hours

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

The Obama Effect on Racial Identification

Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people who identified themselves as black and white more than doubled, climbing from 785,000 to 1.8 million, a 134 percent increase. This combination alone accounted for nearly half the increase in the nation's multiracial population during the decade.

In 2000, the black/white combination accounted for only 11 percent of the total multiracial population. This group was greatly outnumbered by white/other (many "others" were Hispanics who were unaware that Hispanic is an ethnicity rather than a race), white/Asian, and white/American Indian.

In 2010, the black/white mix surged ahead of all the others, accounting for 20 percent of the total multiracial population. Why? Most likely, it is the Obama Effect. The nation's first multiracial president has boosted the popularity of asserting a multiracial identity, particularly the black/white combination. It is also likely that many of those doing the asserting are parents of children under age 18. As of 2009, the median age of the multiracial population was just 20, well below the median age of 37 for all Americans. We do not yet know the age distribution of the multiracial in 2010, but it is likely to be much more youthful than the general population. What accounts for this? Parents. When answering the census, parents supply the information for children under age 18, including racial identification. Many parents identify their children as multiracial (and increasingly so), but when those children become adults they may choose to adopt a single-race identification. Unless, that is, the Obama Effect permanently changes racial identification in the United States.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin 2010 and Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin 2000

Bet You Didn't Know

Number of American families with an unemployed family member: 1 in 8.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families

This Is Where Your Customers Went

Any business wondering where the customers went can find out by taking a look at the Federal Reserve Board's new estimates of household debt. Millions of households, it turns out, are carrying the baggage of education loans, preventing them from buying homes, cars, furniture, going to restaurants, or taking vacations.

In 2009, a substantial 18 percent of households in the United States had education loans. This was up from 16 percent in 2007. By age, the percentage of households with student debt extends well into middle age. Take a look:

Under age 35:  37%
Aged 35 to 44: 20%
Aged 45 to 54: 18%
Aged 55 to 64: 10%

These loans are not trifling either. The size of student loans exceeds vehicle loans and far surpasses credit card debt. For households with student debt, the median amount owed was $15,000 in 2009, up from $12,400 in 2007 (in 2009 dollars)--a 21 percent increase in two years. For the record, the median amount households owed on vehicle loans was a smaller $12,400. The median amount owed on credit cards was just $3,300.

The households most burdened by student loans are the same ones many businesses were counting on to spend their way out of the Great Recession: married couples with children (24 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $15,000), renters (24 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $12,000), and college graduates (25 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $20,000).

A funny thing happened on the way to where we are today. Your customers signed on a dotted line, and now their current and future income is being siphoned off by someone else.

Confusing Numbers

If you are digging into the updated Survey of Consumer Finances data, released earlier today, watch out for a confusing presentation of changes in medians. The percent change columns in the tables are median percent changes, not the percent change in median values. Likewise, the dollar change columns are median dollar changes, not the dollar amount by which the median changed.

Between 2007 and 2009, for example, median household net worth fell from $125,400 to $96,000 (in 2009 dollars), a 23 percent decline in the median value. But the table provided by the Federal Reserve shows "median % change" to be -18 rather than -23. That's because the Feds are measuring the median percent change in net worth rather than the percent change in median net worth. In other words, half of households saw their net worth decline by more than 18 percent between 2007 and 2009 and half saw their net worth decline by less than 18 percent. Likewise, the dollar change in median net worth between 2007 and 2009 was $29,400. Yet the Feds show "median $ change" to be $11,400. This means that half of households saw their net worth decline by more than $11,400 between 2007 and 2009 and half saw their net worth decline by less than that amount.

Insanely confusing.

Race & Hispanic, 2010 Census

This was a big day for demographers. Not only did the Federal Reserve Board release the long-awaited update on household wealth (see post below), but the Census Bureau released the 2010 population totals by race and Hispanic origin. Here they are (numbers in thousands):

		% change
	2010	2000–10
Total population	308,746	9.7
Asians (race alone)	14,674	43.3
Blacks (race alone)	38,929	12.3
Hispanics	50,478	43.0
Non-Hispanic whites	196,818	1.2

How Much Did Net Worth Fall?

The answer: 23 percent.

The Great Recession reduced median household net worth by 23 percent, according to the long-awaited update of the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances. This unprecedented update was undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board solely to determine the impact of the Great Recession on household net worth, assets, and debt.

Median household net worth fell from $125,400 in 2007 to $96,000 in 2009 (in 2009 dollars). The decline in wealth occurred across the board, affecting nearly two out of three households.

The biggest reason for the decline in wealth was the loss of housing equity, which is the single largest asset owned by the average household. The median value of owned homes fell from $207,100 in 2007 to $176,000 in 2009 (in 2009 dollars). Unfortunately, the decline in housing values continues.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009

The Detroit Surprise

The city of Detroit's population loss between 2000 and 2010 was not a surprise. The magnitude of the loss was a surprise. Here's why: 

2009 estimate of Detroit's population: 910,848

2010 census count of Detroit's population: 713,777

Source: 2009 American Community Survey and 2010 Census

North and South

Percentage of people who do not have health insurance, by region...

Northeast:  11%
Midwest: 12%
South:  20%
West: 19%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-September 2010

Are You Past Your Prime?

Staying on top of your finances is getting more and more complex. So complex, in fact, that doing it successfully is often beyond the capabilities of the inexperienced (such as young adults) and the naive (such as older adults). In fact, a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (What Is the Age of Reason? ) shows that younger and older adults do not make the best choices when managing their personal finances. Who does? To be precise, people aged 53.3.

That's right. A series of tests on people of different ages, asking them to make real-world decisions regarding credit cards and interest rates, for example, revealed that 53.3 is the average age when people make the fewest financial mistakes.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of whites who feel close to blacks, by age...

Aged 18 to 30: 54%
Aged 30 to 64: 38%
Aged 65 or older: 35%

Note: On a scale of 1 (not at all close) to 9 (very close), percent who say 6 to 9.
Source: 2010 General Social Survey

Why Do Renters Move?

Ask renters why they moved and "for a job" is often what you hear, according to the American Housing Survey. Twenty-five percent of renters who moved in the past year did so for employment reasons.  

The job factor is especially important for renters who moved into new housing--newly built apartments or single-family homes. Thirty-two percent of renters who moved into a new unit in the past year cited a new job, a job transfer, or the need to be closer to their job. 

With gasoline approaching $4.00 per gallon, the job factor is likely to become increasingly important to renters as they decide where to live. 

Source: Bureau of the Census, American Housing Survey

Poor Demographics

Percent distribution of the poverty population by race and Hispanic origin...

Non-Hispanic whites: 43%
Hispanics: 28%
Blacks: 24%

Source: Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey

Kids and Parents

Percentage of children under age 18 who live with...

at least one biological parent: 94%
at least one stepparent: 6%
at least one adoptive parent: 2%

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2010

An Average Day: Socializing

Thirty-eight percent of Americans socialize on an average day, a figure that varies little by age. Socializing is defined as hanging out with friends, hanging out with family, talking to neighbors, accompanying friends or family while they run errands, giving gifts, and visiting people in hospitals and nursing homes. 

Those who socialize spend an hour and 40 minutes hanging out.   

Source: American Time Use Survey

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Wave of Change

Percentage of people who support the right of same-sex couples to marry, by generation (and age in 2010)...

Millennials (18 to 33): 62%
Generation X (34 to 45): 45%
Boomers (46 to 64): 41%
Older Americans (65+): 34%

Source: 2010 General Social Survey

The Mystery of the High School Graduate

This is not a rant against the educational system or teachers. It is a rant against the morons who presume to "measure" their success with the so-called "averaged freshmen high school graduation rate." This rate makes headlines in every local newspaper across the country, purporting to show how poorly local schools are performing. Nationally, the rate was 74.9 percent in 2007-08 (the latest data available)--which is interpreted by the news media and by many experts who should know better to mean that only 74.9 percent of American children graduate from high school. The rate varies widely by state, from a low of 51.3 percent in Nevada to a high of 89.6 percent in Wisconsin.

You probably think this rate is calculated as it should be--by tracking individual high school freshmen and determining how many eventually graduate from high school. You would be wrong. It is calculated by the National Center for Education Statistics this way: headcount of high school graduates in a given year divided by headcount of freshmen in the school district four years earlier. 

Do you see the problem here? Students who move out of a school district or even transfer to a local private school become "dropouts." Students who get their GED rather than a high school diploma are "dropouts." Students who are held back a year for whatever reason are counted as "dropouts." This explains why states with high levels of migration (Nevada) have lower graduation rates than states with little migration (Wisconsin). The resulting "graduation rates" that make headlines--and bring the wrath of taxpayers down on their local schools--have nothing to do with the success or failure of schools and everything to do with broader demographic trends.

The National Center for Education Statistics also calculates high school completion rates another way, a way that actually measures educational success. Using data from the Current Population Survey, the NCES statisticians calculate the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who have a high school diploma or GED (see table here). By this calculation, 89.9 percent of the age group had completed high school in 2008--an all time high.  

Watching Japan

Fifty-two percent of Americans followed news of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan "very closely" during the days of March 10-13, according to Pew Research Center. Pew regularly tracks interest in specific news events.

While the majority were following the Japan story "very closely," the percentage was below the level of interest in other disasters in recent years, as you can see below...

Hurricane Katrina: 70%
Haiti earthquake: 60%
Indian Ocean tsunami: 58%
Japanese disaster: 52%

The all-time winner in grabbing the attention of the American public was the Challenger disaster of 1986, followed "very closely" by 80 percent. This surpassed the 78 percent who "very closely" followed news of the 9/11 attacks.

Life Expectancy Climbs Again

Life expectancy at birth has resumed its climb, rising from 78.0 years in 2008 to 78.2 years in 2009. Mortality rates fell for 10 of the 15 leading causes of death. Rates (age-adjusted) are lowest in Hawaii and highest in West Virginia.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2009

Retirement Confidence Is Down

Americans are not as confident in having enough money to live comfortably in retirement, according to the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey released today. Only 13 percent of the nation's workers are "very" confident the money will be there, down from a high of 27 percent in 2007. This is hardly a surprise.

What is surprising is that only 27 percent are "not at all" confident they will have the money to retire. Although this is the largest proportion ever recorded by the Retirement Confidence Survey, it is far from being the norm. It means the 73 percent majority of workers have at least a little confidence in being able to afford retirement. This may be why: 74 percent expect to work for pay in "retirement."

Not Retiring Anytime Soon

Percentage of workers aged 55 or older who expect to retire at age 66 or older...

2001: 25%
2011: 50%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey

Corporate Shills?

Percentage who think corporations make a fair and reasonable profit...

All registered voters:  39%
Tea Party supporters:  62%

Source: Pew Research Center

They Don't Trust You

Note to banks, investment companies, health insurance companies, hospitals, drug companies, housing developers, realtors, airlines, car companies, and every other business still trying to market like the Great Recession never happened: They don't trust you. They think you are a crook.

It's only going to get worse because young adults are the most suspicious, according to results from the 2010 General Social Survey. Only 18 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds think most people can be trusted. Only 14 percent have a "great deal" of confidence in major companies. The 51 percent majority think you are trying to take advantage of them.

Rethink your marketing.

Update: How Many Americans Are Gay?

Every few years the National Center for Health Statistics surveys the American public about its sexual behavior and orientation. The latest survey results are out, and they are a lot less interesting than you might expect--mostly because little has changed.   

Asking the kinds of questions that would make your mother blush, the National Survey of Family Growth examines family development from first sexual encounter to ongoing sexual behavior, sexual orientation, sex practices, contraceptive use, fertility, infertility, pregnancy, marriage, and divorce. By focusing on people aged 15 to 44, it captures current trends. The survey was once limited to women, but expanded to include men in 2002. The latest data, from the 2006-08 cycle of interviews, confirms many of the findings from the 2002 survey. 

According to the latest report, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Identity in the United States: Data from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth, 4.6 percent of women aged 18 to 44 identify themselves as lesbian or bisexual. This is up from 4.1 percent in 2002. Among men in the age group, 2.8 percent identify themselves as gay or bisexual, down from 4.1 percent in 2002. While the numbers have changed, the changes are minor.    

In another take on the issue of sexual orientation, the survey asks whether people are attracted to the opposite sex or the same sex. Among women aged 18 to 44, 83.3 percent say they are sexually attracted only to men. Among men in the age group, 93.5 percent say they are sexually attracted only to women. These figures are also similar to 2002 results (85.7 percent of women and 92.2 percent of men). 

When asked whether they had ever had any same-sex contact, 12.5 percent of women and 5.2 percent of men aged 15 to 44 answered yes (in 2002, the figures were 11.2 and 6.0 percent, respectively). Among men, same-sex contact was specifically defined as oral or anal sex. Among women, the questions were about oral sex and a broader "sexual experience of any kind." The broader question posed to women may account for the much larger percentage of women who have had same-sex contact.

You may scoff at the notion that respondents will answer questions about sexual behavior and orientation honestly. It is no doubt true that many are lying. But they are lying consistently over the years. Consistency makes this survey a valuable addition to our knowledge about sexual behavior and orientation in the United States. 

An Average Day: Spending

Amount spent by the average household per day
on all products, services, and bills: $134.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Be Careful

Almost daily, 2010 census data are being released state by state. Most of the resulting census stories have an unreal feeling about them; they are a throwback to earlier times of heady growth in the once booming South and West. For trend spotters, it is our bad luck that the two censuses occurred on either side of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Any analysis of change between 2000 and 2010 will miss the dislocations caused by the Great Recession.  

Arizona's population grew 25 percent during the decade, for example. But does anyone think Arizona has been growing recently? The population of Phoenix was up 9 percent between 2000 and 2010, yet it is probably losing people now. Population experts in Arizona say the state has grown little, if at all, for the past three years.

We will have to wait another year or two before we have up-to-date data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey that will reveal the trends ushered in by the Great Recession. While the census gives us a good snapshot of the population in 2010, it cannot give us an accurate picture of current trends.

Stupid or Selfish?

Among people aged 65 or older...

Percent with government health insurance: 94%.
Percent who think government should help people pay medical bills: 35%.

Source: Census Bureau and General Social Survey

Projections of Education Statistcs

The latest annual Projections of Education Statistics report is now available on the National Center for Education Statistics web site. Projections are for the years 2009 through 2019 and cover school enrollment at all levels, high school graduates, degrees conferred, teachers, and educational expenditures. While the topic seems interesting, the results never fail to be strangely boring because few changes are ever foreseen. No drama here.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of people with children who think their children's standard of living will be better than their own, by age...

18-44: 67%
45-64: 54%
65-plus: 47%

Source: General Social Survey

What's So Special about Detroit?

During the Super Bowl, a two-minute television advertisement aired for the 2011 Chrysler 200 automobile, showcasing Detroit with Eminem as soundtrack. The ad was such a sensation (9 million views on YouTube so far) that the company proceeded to wrap (literally) its Auburn Hills, Michigan headquarters with an enormous banner carrying the newly legendary tagline: "Imported from Detroit." T-shirts promoting those strangely powerful words were rushed into production and sold out within hours. Chrysler promises to produce more. 

Americans can't seem to get enough of Detroit. Entire web sites are devoted to images of its abandoned buildings. Some Detroit residents--current and former--are offended by the online ogling of Detroit's "ruin porn," as it is sometimes called. But those coming to the defense of Detroit need not worry. The root of our obsession has shifted from condemnation to admiration. The metropolitan area has become a  mirror of America, and we can't tear our eyes away from what we see. Take a look at Detroit:  

•                Unemployment rate: 11.1% (December 2010).

•                Median housing value: - 36% (2003 to 2009, after adjusting for inflation).

•                Homeowners underwater on their mortgage: 19% (2009).

•                Median household income: -23% (1999 to 2009, after adjusting for inflation).

It looks bad, and it is bad. But Detroit is doing no worse than the rest of the United States--it is just a few steps ahead of us. Nationally, the unemployment rate is a stubbornly high 8.9 percent. Nationally, the decline in housing values exceeds that of the Great Depression--a 26 percent loss since prices peaked in 2006, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Nationally, the percentage of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgage doubled from 4 to 8 percent between 2003 and 2009. Nationally, median household income fell 5 percent between 1999 and 2009, after adjusting for inflation. Detroit has been there, done that.  

The reflective power of Detroit has Hogwarts-like magical properties. In the mirror of Detroit, we can see ourselves as we used to be, as we are now, and as we might be in the future. In Detroit's world-class industries, we see our past glory. In Detroit's devastated landscape, we see our ruined economy. In the rebirth of Chrysler and General Motors, we see our resolve to make things work again.

The metamorphosis of Detroit in the American psyche occurred in three distinct stages. In the first stage we were bystanders watching the train wreck of Detroit from afar. In the second stage we discovered, much to our horror, that we were on the train ourselves. Now in the third stage, we--like Detroit--are climbing out of the wreckage and trying to figure out what happens next. That's why "Imported from Detroit" struck such a chord with the public. It called us back from a faraway land where we had become expatriates from the American experience, separated from what made us great: hard work, real products, modest goals, and good ideas. Americans are obsessed with Detroit because Detroit is us. But to make Detroit's future--and our own--something we want, we have to bet our money on it. So far, sales of the 2011 Chrysler 200 have been disappointing.

Is Life Exciting?

Percentage of people who find life exciting, by age...

18-29: 57%
39-39: 52
40-49: 53
50-59: 56
60 or older: 45

Source: General Social Survey

Trust: The Decline

Over the past four decades, the General Social Survey has been asking Americans this question: Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can't be too careful in life? During those decades, the percentage who say most people can be trusted has fallen steadily from 46 percent in 1972 (the first GSS survey) to 32 percent in 2010. What is behind the decline, demographically speaking? Are people losing their trust in others over time, or are younger less-trusting cohorts replacing older more-trusting ones? 

The answer is behind door number two: younger less-trusting cohorts are replacing older more-trusting ones. The percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who think most people can be trusted has fallen over the years and was just 18 percent in 2010.

Within cohorts, the percentage who trust others has remained relatively stable across the decades. One cohort in particular is consistently the most trusting--people born between 1941 and 1950 (aged 60 to 69 in 2010). The 51 percent majority of today's 60-to-69-year-olds think most people can be trusted.

The 33 percentage point gap in trust between 18-to-29-year-olds (18 percent) and 60-69-year-olds (51 percent) seems like a profound statement about something.  

Oh Happy Day!

The 2010 General Social Survey results are now available for extraction on UC Berkeley's Survey Documentation and Analysis web site. Here is an inaugural finding...

Percentage of people aged 18 or older who agree with the statement, "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living..."

2010: 58%
2000: 77%

Source: General Social Survey, SDA, UC-Berkeley

Who's Got Your Back?

Percent rating honesty and ethical standards of workers "high" or "very high," by occupation...

Grade school teachers: 67%

Politicians, state: 12%

Politicians, federal: 9%

Lobbyists: 7%

Source: Gallup Poll, cited in Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

Steep Decline in Home Buying among Young

Young adults are buying homes at a sluggish pace. My analysis of the change in the homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds as they age into the 30-to-34 age group shows that young adults are more hesitant to buy a home today than at any time in the past quarter century.

First, some background. The 30-to-34 age group is critical for home buying. This is when the homeownership rate surpasses 50 percent of households, a fact recorded each year by the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey for nearly three decades. In 2010, 36.8 percent of householders aged 25 to 29 owned a home, as did 51.6 percent of those aged 30-to-34.

Here's the catch. Those 30-to-34-year-olds in 2010 were 25-to-29-year-olds in 2005. So let's take a look at what happened to the cohort's homeownership rate over those five years. In 2005, the homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds was 40.9 percent. In 2010, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was 51.6 percent. So far so good--a big increase in the cohort's homeownership rate! But this increase is far smaller than the one experienced by 25-to-29-year-olds as they aged into their early thirties between 1995 and 2000. In fact, it is only about half as big (10.7 percentage points versus 20.2 percentage points). The gain is also smaller than the one that occurred to 25-to-29-year-olds as they aged into their early thirties between 1985 and 1990 (14.1 percentage points).

Here's the bottom line: Over the past few years, householders aged 30 to 34 experienced a bigger decline in homeownership than any other age group, their rate falling from 56.8 to 51.6 percent between 2005 and 2010. Behind the decline is the fact that millions of young adults--as they enter this critical age group--are deciding they do not want (or cannot afford) to buy a home.

Trouble in Arizona

Percentage of Arizona residents aged 18 to 64...

Who have private health insurance

2004: 61

2010: 48

Who have unmet medical needs

2004: 12

2010: 17

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Health Insurance and Unmet Medical Need for Persons Under 65 Years of Age, in the United Stats and Selected States from 2004-June 2010

Who Snores

Percentage of people aged 18 or older who say they snore...

Men: 57%

Women: 40%

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

New Sexual Behavior Study

The government does ask and it does tell. In a new study of the sexual behavior of Americans aged 18 to 44, the National Center for Health Statistics reports that 6 percent of men and 13 percent of women have had sexual contact with a same-sex partner.

When asked whether they are heterosexual or homosexual, 5 percent of women identify themselves as lesbian or bisexual. Among men in the age group, 3 percent say they are gay or bisexual. These figures are similar to those found in a survey taken in 2002.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Identity in the United States: Data from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth

Fat Americans: The French Version

This may be a first. The National Center for Health Statistics just released a report on obesity in the United States and Canada--in French! For those who can't quite wrap their mind around the French, an English version is also available.

The findings are the same in either language. Americans are fatter than Canadians. In the United States, 34 percent of adults are obese (defined as having a body mass index of 30.0 or higher). In Canada, the figure is a substantially smaller 24 percent. Even after limiting the analysis to non-Hispanic whites, most of the gap remains: 33 percent of Americans are obese compared with 26 percent of Canadians.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prévalence de l’obésité chez les adultes au Canada et aux États-Unis

Bet You Didn't Know

Percent change in death rates by selected cause, 1960 to 2007...

Pneumonia: -70%

Heart disease: -66%

Accidents: -37%

Cancer: -8%

Homicide: +17%

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2011 Statistical Abstract

Not so Mobile

Percentage of Americans who access the Internet on a mobile phone: 37%

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University, Race and Recession Survey

Better Times Ahead

Percent who agree with the statement "America's best times are yet to come"...

Blacks: 59%

Hispanics: 44%

Whites: 40%

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University, Race and Recession Survey

Is Art in Decline?

The popularity of Glee and Dancing with the Stars has the folks over at the National Endowment for the Arts scratching their heads. Their five surveys of arts participation, taken over the past 30-some years, show a decline in arts participation. The surveys ask a representative sample of Americans whether they have attended any of the following events in the past year: a jazz or classical music concert, an opera, a musical, a play, a ballet, another dance performance, or an art museum. The latest survey, taken in 2008, found declines in attendance at every type of venue. The percentage who attended a classical music concert, for example, fell from 13 percent in the 1980s to 9 percent in 2008.

Rather than tsk-tsking over the failure of Americans to engage with the arts, the NEA concludes in a new report (Age and Arts Participation: A Case against Demographic Destiny) that times may be "a changing." Bravely, it even suggests that perhaps its own measures of arts participation are too narrow. As evidence, the NEA references the findings of another arts survey (see Philadelphia Cultural Engagement Index), one that defines arts participation much more broadly. The Philadelphia Cultural Engagement Index, fielded in 2009, found much higher participation in a variety of what may be viewed as "nontraditional" art experiences. According to the Philadelphia study, 81 percent of respondents listen to music on the radio at least weekly, 39 percent sing at least weekly, 28 percent watch television shows about dance at least weekly, 11 percent write in a journal or blog at least weekly, 50 percent read books for pleasure at least weekly, 38 percent watch programs about science or history on TV at least weekly, and 19 percent dance socially at night clubs or parties at least monthly.

These differing findings reveal an important truth about survey research: the answers you get are always determined by the questions you ask.

Things that Cost Less

These are some of the items that cost less in 2009 than they did almost three decades ago in 1982-84: living room, kitchen, and dining room furniture; appliances; clocks, lamps, and other household decorative items; children's clothes; and landline and wireless telephone services.

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2011 Statistical Abstract

Black and White

Mississippi is the most politically conservative state in the nation, according to a Gallup survey. It is also the state in which blacks account for the largest share of the population. Just over half (50.5%) of adults in Mississippi identify themselves as political conservatives. More than one-third (37.1%) of Mississippi's population is black.

Is Mississippi's number one rank in both measures a coincidence, or is it a consequence of the growing political polarization of whites and blacks? Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina also rank among the top ten in both measures.

Underweight

Percentage of adults in the United States who are underweight: 1.6%.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Heath E-Stats

Table FG10

For those tracking the "doubling up" trend during the Great Recession, the Census Bureau has a table for you. First introduced in 2008, table FG10 shows the number of households that include adult children or other relatives of the householder. Between 2008 and 2010, these extended-family households grew by more than 800,000 to 9.8 million--or about 8 percent of all households and 12 percent of all families.

The number of householders whose adult children live with them grew 11 percent between 2008 and 2010 (to 5.3 million). The number with a parent in their home expanded by a larger 13 percent (to 2.3 million). By race and Hispanic origin, blacks are most likely to have adult children in their home, and Asians are most likely to have a parent living with them.

Source: Bureau of the Census, America's Families and Living Arrangements, table FG10

Kids These Days

Percentage of children who live with their married, biological, mother and father: 59.

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

An Average Day: Groceries

Fourteen percent of Americans shop for groceries on an average day.

Source: American Time Use Survey

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Minus 805,000

The number of homeowners in the United States fell from a peak of 75.6 million in 2006 to 74.8 million in 2010, a decline of 805,000 (1 percent).

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Household Type

Homeownership rates by household type in 2010 and when the homeownership rate peaked (in 2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
Married couple	82.1	84.0	-1.9
Female family	48.6	50.9	-2.3
Male family	56.9	59.6	-2.7
Women alone	58.6	59.9	-1.3
Men alone	51.3	50.5	0.8

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Race

Here are the homeownership rates by race and Hispanic origin in 2010 and in the year when homeownership peaked (2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
American Indian	52.3	55.6	-3.3
Asian	58.9	59.8	-0.9
Black	45.4	49.1	-3.7
Hispanic	47.5	48.1	-0.6
Non-Hisp white	74.4	76.0	-1.6

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

2010 Homeownership Data

This morning the Census Bureau released the 2010 annual homeownership statistics. Here's a look at homeownership rates by age in 2010 and in the year when the overall homeownership rate peaked (2004):

	2010	2004
Total	66.9	69.0	-2.1
under 25	39.1	43.1	-4.0
35 to 44	65.0	69.2	-4.2
45 to 54	73.5	77.2	-3.7
55 to 64	79.0	81.7	-2.7
65+	80.5	81.1	-0.6

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Detroit's Decline

The median value of owner-occupied homes in the Detroit metropolitan area was just $120,000 in 2009, down from $159,993 in 2003.

One in five homeowners in Detroit is underwater on their mortgage, meaning they owe more than their home is worth. In 2003, only 1 in 63 homeowners was underwater.

Source: American Housing Survey, Metropolitan Data

No Heat

Of the nation's 114 million households, 1 million do not use heating fuel of any kind. Seventy-two percent are in three states: California (34 percent), Hawaii (27 percent), and Florida (10 percent).

Source: 2009 American Community Survey

An Average Day: College Students

On an average weekday, college students spend 3.6 hours in class or studying and 3.5 hours socializing and playing sports.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics

Bet You Didn't Know

Rank of Alzheimer's disease as a cause of death in the United States: 6.

Source: Health, United States 2010

How Do You Define Reading?

The American Time Use Survey, which is taken annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, asks Americans what they did minute by minute during the previous 24 hours. Their activities are classified into categories such as "reading for personal interest" and "computer use for leisure." Here's the question: How does the Time Use Survey classify reading a book on an iPad? Is it computer use or reading?

Not a problem, according to the time use experts at the BLS. Computers, they say, are tools for accomplishing other tasks. When respondents report using a computer, the interviewer then asks what they were doing on the computer. If they were reading a newspaper or book on their iPad, the activity is classified as reading, not computer use. Similarly, if they were using their computer to manage their money, the activity is classified as financial management rather than computer use. In fact, the category "computer use for leisure" is nothing more than a residual--what little remains after assigning all possible computer use to other activities.

This is good news because it means the time use survey category "reading for personal interest" is positioned to capture any changes in time spent reading due to e-readers. An increase in reading might be on the way, according to an analysis posted by Read It Later, an app that allows users to save articles on their computers and phones for later reading. The company's data show a spike in iPad reading between 8 and 10 pm--typically television time. Could e-reading compete with television as a prime-time activity? Maybe, but it is not happening yet. Between 2005 and 2009, the average person spent a lot more time watching TV and slightly less time reading. There is one exception, however. Teenagers aged 15 to 19 spent a bit more time reading and a bit less time watching TV. Is this a blip or a sign of things to come?

One Pill Makes You Larger

Yesterday the National Center for Health Statistics released the 2010 edition of Health, United States. This annual report is mostly a compilation of survey results available elsewhere on the NCHS web site, but its 148 trend tables offer an historical perspective that can be insightful. In table 138, for example, you can see at a glance that the percentage of 25-to-34-year-olds without health insurance climbed from 16 percent in 1984 to 28 percent in 2009--the biggest increase among age groups.

Table 94, Prescription Drug Use in the Past Month, is my favorite. This table shows that 48 percent of Americans took at least one prescription drug in the past month, up from 38 percent roughly two decades ago. Twenty-one percent took three or more prescription drugs in the past month, up from 12 percent. Among people aged 65 or older, 65 percent have taken three or more prescription drugs in the past month, up from 35 percent in the earlier time period.

We Love the Dawgs

Among items on which the average household spends the most, rank of...

Veterinary services: 51

Physician's services: 54

Source: Best Customers, 7th edition

Score One for the Great Recession

How do you measure bad times? Specifically, how does the Great Recession compare with the Great Depression? Economists typically use GDP as the measuring stick. During the Great Depression, GDP fell by a stunning 27 percent. During the Great Recession, GDP fell only 4 percent. Using the GDP measure, then, the Great Recession was only 15 percent as severe as the Great Depression (4/27 x 100 = 15).

Something is missing from the GDP comparison, however: a human face. GDP and other macro-level economic statistics fail to capture the human experience of hard times. We need something that measures the personal dimension of economic downturns. One way to measure the personal is with the yardstick of demographic change. We can use demographic statistics--unemployment, homeownership, living arrangements, births, marriages, migration, and even death--to compare the Great Recession with the Great Depression. And we will keep score.

Unemployment

When comparing the Great Recession with the Great Depression, the unemployment rate is the Holy Grail. Unfortunately, it is not possible to directly compare the unemployment rates of the two time periods. Today, the federal government surveys an enormous sample of the population every month to determine unemployment. Not so during the Great Depression. Historians have made educated guesses about unemployment during the 1930s by subtracting estimates of the employed from estimates of the civilian labor force. The remainder is the unemployed. According to these calculations, unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at 25.2 percent in 1933.

The official unemployment rate during the Great Recession peaked at a much lower 10.1 percent in October 2009. Some say this figure does not tell the whole story because it counts as unemployed only those who have been looking for work recently. Even using the most expansive definition of unemployment, however, the rate peaked at 18.0 percent in January 2010 and now stands at 16.1 percent (See U-6 in table A-15 of the Employment Situation report).

We will keep score using this formula: Great Recession statistic/Great Depression statistic times 100. Using the official unemployment figure from the Great Recession, the formula is: (10.1/25.2) x 100 = 40. Using the larger Great Recession unemployment figure, the formula is (18.0/25.2) x 100 = 71. The average of 40 and 71 is 56. Score = 56.

Homeownership

During the Great Depression, the homeownership rate fell from 47.8 percent in 1930 to 43.6 percent in 1940--a 4.2 percentage point decline. So far during the Great Recession, the homeownership rate has fallen from the 69.0 percent peak in 2004 to 66.9 percent in 2010--a 2.1 percentage point decline. Score: (2.1/4.2) x 100 = 50.

Living arrangements

Despite the economic hardships of the Great Depression, household size continued its long-term historical decline, falling from 4.1 to 3.8 persons per household between 1930 and 1940 as people moved from farms to cities. During the Great Recession, average household size crept up slightly (and not at all after rounding), rising from 2.56 in 2007 to 2.59 in 2010. Because of ongoing urbanization during the 1930s, this indicator is not comparable between the two time periods.

Immigration

During the Great Depression, the number of people legally immigrating to the United States plummeted by 91.8 percent in just a few years, falling from 279,678 in 1929 to just 23,068 in 1933. So far during the Great Recession, the number of people legally immigrating to the United States fell from a decade high of 1,266,129 in 2006 to 1,130,818 in 2009--a 10.7 percent decline. Score: (10.7/91.8) x 100 = 12.

Births

During the Great Depression, the number of births fell from 2,582,000 in 1929 to a low of 2,307,000 in 1933--a 10.7 percent decline. So far during the Great Recession, the number of births has fallen from a peak of 4,316,233 in 2007 to an estimated 4,055,000 in 2010--a 6.4 percent decline. Score: (6.4/10.7) x 100 = 60.

Marriages

During the Great Depression, the number of marriages fell from 1,233,000 in 1929 to a low of 982,000 in 1932--a 20.4 percent decline. So far during the Great Recession, the number of marriages fell from 2,205,000 in 2007 to 2,077,000 in 2009--a 5.8 percent decline. Score: (5.8/20.4) x 100 = 28.

Life expectancy

During the Great Depression, life expectancy climbed to 63.3 years in 1933, then fell to 58.5 years by 1936--a decline of 4.8 years. So far during the Great Recession, life expectancy has fallen a miniscule 0.1 years--from 77.9 in 2007 to 77.8 in 2008 (the latest data available). Score: (0.1/4.8) x 100 = 2.

The Score

Average the six scores, and the result is 35. In other words, the Great Recession has been about one-third as severe as the Great Depression and more than twice as bad as the GDP comparison suggests.

Of course, the demographic impact of the Great Recession is still unfolding. Homeownership rates, births, marriages, immigration--even life expectancy--could decline further as households adjust to reduced circumstances. Any continuing declines will drive the score higher, but probably not by much. There is reason to believe we are through the worst of the Great Recession. As financial analyst and blogger Barry Ritholtz notes, most of the economy is people getting up in the morning and sending their kids off to school. As long as we are still doing that, we will muddle through.

Bet You Didn't Know

Market share controlled by householders aged 55 or older...

Newspaper and magazine subscriptions: 61%

Newspapers and magazines, single copy: 39%

Source: Household Spending, 15th edition

Big Increase in Part-Timers

Twenty-six percent of employed Americans have part-time jobs, up from 18 percent in 2008. The number of part-time workers expanded by nearly 10 million during the past two years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Unemployed One or More Years

Percentage of unemployed full-time workers who have been out of work for one or more years...

2010: 31%

2009: 17%

2008: 11%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

2010 Labor Force Participation

Over the weekend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released 2010 labor force statistics. The numbers reveal plummeting labor force participation rates in most age groups. The biggest decline was among teenagers aged 16 to 19. Their labor force participation rate fell from 52 percent in 2000 to just 35 percent in 2010.

Among men aged 16 or older, labor force participation fell 3.6 percentage points between 2000 and 2010, to 71.2 percent--the lowest level on record. (Remember, labor force participation rates include the employed AND the unemployed.)

Among women aged 16 or older, labor force participation fell 1.3 percentage points to 58.6 percent.

Labor force participation increased only among people aged 55 or older. The biggest gain was among men and women aged 65 or older, a 4.4 percentage point rise in participation to 22.1 percent among men and 13.8 percent among women.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

How Many Dogs?

Number of pets in the United States...

Dogs: 72 million (in 37% of households)

Cats: 82 million (in 32% of households)

Birds: 11 million (in 4% of households)

Horses: 7 million (in 2% of households)

Source: American Veterinary Medical Association

The Mystery of the Missing Data

This week the Census Bureau released 2009 data on school enrollment. Once again I have to lament the loss of Table 14, which the bureau "eliminated" (yes, that's how the Census Bureau describes it) from its school enrollment tables beginning in 2006.

Table 14 gave us this: "Enrollment Status of Dependent Primary Family Members 18 to 24 Years Old by Family Income." This table revealed the yawning gap in college enrollment by family income. The last time the bureau published the table, with data for 2005, the numbers showed that 80 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds from families with incomes of $100,000 or more were enrolled in college. Among those from families with incomes below $50,000, the figure was just 33 percent. We no longer can get this information from the Census Bureau. Why?

Source: Bureau of the Census, School Enrollment

Gender Gap: Video Games

Percentage of college freshmen who played video/computer games during an average week while seniors in high school...

Men: 82%

Women: 37%

Source: HERI, The American Freshman--National Norms Fall 2010

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of 23-year-olds who have a bachelor's degree...

Men: 14%

Women: 23%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, America's Young Adults at 23

Does Butter Cost Too Much?

OK, so some food prices are rising. (Have you checked the price of butter lately?) Still, we have nothing to complain about. In the early 1900s, feeding the family required 43 percent of every dollar spent by the average household. Today the figure is just 13 percent, close to the record low of 12 percent reached in 2007--and it includes restaurant spending. If we devoted the same share of our expenditures to food as families did in 1901, then the average household would be spending $21,000 a year on food instead of $6,400.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 100 Years of U.S. Consumer Spending

Losing Counties

So far the Census Bureau has released 2010 census redistricting data for four states: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. This week data for Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, and Vermont will be released. All 50 states will be available by April 1. At this link, the Census Bureau provides a neat interactive graphic by state that allows you to see county-level 2010 population counts and bar charts depicting population change by county since 1960.

It is interesting to note how many counties are losing population. Typically, the losers are rural pockets with poor to nonexistent Internet and cell phone service, a fatal condition in the modern economy.

College Enrollment Decline

This morning the Census Bureau released 2009 school enrollment statistics, and the numbers confirm that full-time undergraduate enrollment at private colleges and universities is still below the peak of 2005.

Although overall college enrollment is at an all-time high of nearly 20 million, the number of undergraduates enrolled full-time in four-year private schools is 9 percent below peak. Because the private numbers include some of the rapidly expanding for-profits (excluded are those with online courses only), traditional non-profit private colleges may be hurting more than these numbers suggest.

Meanwhile, the number of undergraduates enrolled full-time in four-year public colleges and universities grew 14 percent between 2005 and 2009. The number enrolled full-time in two-year public colleges expanded by 38 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of Students: October 2009

True Love

Percentage of men aged 30 or older who have married only once and are still married: 53%

Source: Bureau of the Census

What, Me Worry?

Percentage of freshmen at four-year colleges who are not sure they will have enough funds to complete college...

2010: 11.1%

1970: 11.2%

Source: HERI, The American Freshman--National Norms Fall 2010, and The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends

How Many Workers are Illegal?

Unauthorized immigrants accounted for 5.2 percent of the labor force in 2010, according to a new report from the Pew Hispanic Center.

Explaining the Jobs Report

What explains the strange employment report released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Employers added only 36,000 jobs in January, yet the unemployment rate fell from 9.4. to 9.0 percent. Could this be the reason: the baby-boom generation is grabbing hold of the lifeline of early Social Security benefits (available at age 62) and leaving the labor force behind.

Most older boomers (aged 55 or older) do not plan to retire until age 66 or older, according to the Retirement Confidence Survey. Only 19 percent say they will retire before age 65. But unemployed boomers may be changing their minds as they cope with an unyielding labor market. The fact is, many workers end up retiring before they planned--a substantial 41 percent, according to the RCI.

There are some indications that this is happening. The labor force participation rate (which includes both the employed and the unemployed) fell to 64.2 percent in January 2011, the lowest level since 1983. Even more telling, between 2009 and 2010, the number of people aged 55 or older in the labor force fell by 1 million despite the fact that the age group is still expanding with boomers.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Grrrrr

Frustration with the 2010 Current Population Survey's America's Families and Living Arrangements tables...

Apparently, the Census Bureau thinks it is of the utmost importance to provide race and Hispanic origin detail for the few children who live with their grandparents, but does not think it important to provide race and Hispanic origin detail on homeownership by household type.

Still Want to Own

Even in the grip of the biggest housing crisis since the Great Depression, Americans remain optimistic about homeownership. Sixty-seven percent still believe housing is a safe investment, according to the latest Fannie Mae National Housing Survey fielded last summer. Eighty-four percent believe owning a home makes more sense than renting.

Of course, most Americans--and most survey respondents--own their home. Naturally, homeowners will think they made the right choice. So how do renters feel about homeownership? According to the survey results, they are less positive than the average person but still upbeat. Fifty-four percent of renters think buying a home is a safe investment. Sixty-nine percent think owning a home makes more sense than renting. Fifty-nine percent of renters think it is a good time to buy a home. But only 38 percent say they are likely to buy a home in the next three years.

Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, June-July 2010

The Thing about Jobs

51 million. That's how many job openings the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects for the 2008-18 decade. Two-thirds of those jobs will result from what the BLS calls "replacement needs" (retirement) rather than economic growth. Of the 51 million projected job openings, 34 million will come from replacement and only 15 million from economic growth.

The retirement decisions of aging baby boomers will determine the job prospects of the nation's younger adults.

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Out of Date

For the past few months the Census Bureau has been releasing "new" data about women-owned businesses, Hispanic-owned businesses, and next week we will find out about black-owned businesses. Unfortunately these data are from the 2007 Survey of Business Owners. The data may provide some insight into the way things were just before the country plunged into the Great Recession, but they shed little light on how things are now.