Get Ready for More Census Data

Today the Census Bureau began its release of 2010 census demographic profile data on a state-by-state basis. Tables include total, male, and female populations in five-year and selected age groups, Asians and Hispanics by ethnic group, household type, household relationship, housing occupancy, and housing tenure. Local area data within states are also available for these characteristics. Data for 13 states will be released each week, with data for all states (and local areas) available by the end of May.

Today's release is for the following states: Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia.

Next week's release (May 12) will be for the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Puerto Rico.

Interesting nugget from today's release: In Florida, households with people aged 65 or older (31 percent) outnumber households with children under age 18 (30 percent).

Dental Work

Percentage of adults who have been to a dentist in the past year, by household income...

Less than $35,000: 45%
$35,000 to $49,999: 54%
$50,000 to $74,999: 66%
$75,000 to $99,999: 72%
$100,000 or more: 80%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009

What is Wrong with this Article?

"New Households Form at Fastest Rate Since '07 in Resurgent U.S.," headlined a recent Bloomberg article. The premise of the article: pent-up demand for independent households among young adults who have been doubling up with mom and dad is going to boost housing starts in the near future.

No doubt there is pent-up demand for independent housing among young adults, but at best they will become renters not owners. The market for new homes is not likely to recover anytime soon and perhaps not in our lifetime. Unemployment, student loan debt, and depressed wages have shaken the middle class, and the epicenter of the quake is among young adults. At this point, we are only beginning to see the extent of the destruction, and the ground is still shaking.

Yet the experts insist that business as usual is just around the corner. Comments one economist in the Bloomberg article: "The demographic component of housing demand is strong: it's just the economic and psychological components that are holding things back." So, it's just the money and the abject terror--no biggie.

"At some point, housing starts will likely take off in a big way," comments another expert. "I just do not think that Americans will settle for living in more crowded homes."

Settle? Settle? Do they think money grows on trees? Until the housing industry wakes up to the fact that its interests and the interests of union-busting politicians, stingy corporations, greedy universities, and predatory financial institutions are not the same, there is no hope of a return to business as usual in the housing industry.

New Citizens

Hundreds of thousands of foreign-born residents of the United States gained their citizenship status in 2010, according to a new report on naturalizations by the Department of Homeland Security. Last year, 619,913 legal permanent residents of the United States became U.S. citizens. This number is well below the record high of more than 1 million in 2008.

Newly naturalized citizens had a median age of 39, the 53 percent majority were female, and two out of three were married. They had spent a median of six years in legal permanent resident status in the United States before becoming citizens. Mexico was the most common country of birth for newly naturalized citizens, but accounted for only 11 percent of total naturalizations in 2010.

Public Schools Still Make Room for Art

Despite the obsession in the educational establishment with the three Rs, the great majority of public elementary and secondary schools still offer instruction in music and the visual arts, according to a 2009-10 survey by the National Center for Education Statistics. Among elementary schools, 94 percent offer music and 83 percent offer visual art classes. Among secondary schools the figures are 91 and 89 percent, respectively. On board to teach these subjects at most schools are full-time art specialists.

Look Out Below!

Here's a number you are going to see bandied about in the next few weeks, purporting to show how public schools are failing. Supposedly, only 75.5 percent of 9th graders in 2005-06 graduated from high school in 2008-09. That's the latest "averaged high school graduation rate," according to a new report released by the National Center for Education Statistics. By state the statistic varies from a high of 90.7 percent in Wisconsin to a low of 56.3 percent in Nevada.

Don't believe it. The first sign that this is a bogus measure is its tortured name. The second sign of bogosity is that the rate doesn't match reality--it is far below the 89.9 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds who actually have a high school diploma or GED (see table here).

The third sign that the "averaged high school graduation rate" is bogus is the methodology behind it, invented by morons. The rate is calculated by taking the number of high school graduates in a school district in a given year and dividing by the number of freshmen in the school district four years earlier. So, any student who moves out of a school district is counted as a dropout. That's why states with little migration have high "graduation" rates, and states with lots of migration have low "graduation" rates. Pure genius.

The Young Are Optimistic

Percentage who say it is very or somewhat likely that today's youth will have a better life than their parents, by age...

18 to 29: 57%
30 to 44: 45%
50 to 64: 36%
65 or older: 37%

Source: Gallup

Ding Dong, The Witch Is Dead

Typically, older Americans are the ones most informed about the news. Yesterday's killing of Osama Bin Laden may have been the first Big News event in which the youngest generation was the first to know and spread the news to their peers in a whoosh of texting, Twittering, and Facebook posts.

On the East Coast, many older Americans were asleep when the news that Osama Bin Laden was dead burst onto millions of cellphones. It is likely that many did not hear the news until hours later when they collected their morning paper. There is no doubt that the audience for President Obama's late night remarks was decidedly youthful, as were the crowds that formed spontaneously in Washington, D.C. and New York.

Everyone under the age of, say, 25 has another reason besides their late night schedules and texting prowess to follow the news about Osama Bin Laden's killing so closely. Older generations have seen enemies come and go--Germans, Japanese, North Vietnamese, communists, Richard Nixon. For the younger generation, Osama Bin Laden was The Enemy. Now he's dead. This is their V-Day.

Death Row, 2010

Number of prisoners on death row: 3,260.
Number executed: 46

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Jobs Lost During the Great Recession

The April issue of the Monthly Labor Review, released yesterday, describes job losses during the Great Recession industry by industry. As the overview states, "The downturn in employment accompanying the 2007-09 recession was notable for its prolonged length, for affecting an especially wide range of industries, and for being deeper than any other downturn since World War II."

Change in employment by industry, December 2007 — June 2009
Construction: -1,500,000
Financial activities: -785,000
Health care: +428,000
Leisure & hospitality: -454,000
Manufacturing: -2,000,000
Mining: -44,000
Professional & business services: -1,600,000
Retail trade: -1,000,000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that although the recession officially ended in June 2009, another 1.2 million jobs were lost in the following months until employment bottomed out in February 2010. The total number of jobs lost from the pre-recession peak until the February 2010 bottom: 8.8 million.

Fewer Journalists

The number of journalists is shrinking. An annual census of newsroom journalists in the United States, taken by the American Society of News Editors, finds many fewer journalists working at online and traditional newspapers today than a few years ago. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of journalists fell 26 percent--from the all-time high of 56,400 to just 41,600. The good news: between 2009 and 2010, the number of professional journalists grew by 100.

Born in the USA

Percentage of Hispanics who were born in the United States: 63%.

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey

Median Weekly Earnings

Median weekly earnings of full-time workers: $747.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, Table 39

Fewer Have Employment-Based Health Insurance

Only 52 percent of workers aged 18 to 64 had employment-based health insurance benefits in their own name in 2009, down from 57 percent in 2000. Here is the percentage of workers who have employment-based health insurance in their own name, by size of firm...

Fewer than 10 employees: 25%
10 to 24 employees: 36%
25 to 99 employees: 59%
100 or more employees: 63%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, The Impact of the 2007-2009 Recession on Worker's Health Coverage

First-Time Home Buyer Watch

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2011: 50.3%

One way to see what lies ahead for the housing market is to track the percentage of 30-to-34-year-olds who own a home. This is the age group in which the majority of households typically become homeowners. The homeownership rate of the age group is the best indicator of trends in the housing market because these young adults are the nation's first-time home buyers. The annual homeownership rate of the age group has been greater than 50 percent since the Census Bureau first began to collect the information in 1982.

The quarterly homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been above 50 percent in all but one quarter for the past 17 years. The last time it slipped below 50 percent was in the second quarter of 1994, when only 49.6 percent of 30-to-34-year-olds owned a home. The figure peaked at 58.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2004. The quarterly number released today is uncomfortably close to falling below the 50 percent threshold.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Middle Class Is a Feeling

In today's New York Times, an Economix blog post notes that regardless of their actual income level, most Americans think they are middle class. This has long been true because "middle class" is not a statistical point on the income distribution but an attitude, a feeling, a sense of belonging to a fair system that works.

That's why it is alarming to see the latest numbers from the 2010 General Social Survey. When Americans are asked how their family income compares with other families, only 43 percent now feel that their income is average. This is the smallest percentage ever recorded by the General Social Survey and down from a peak of 59 percent in 1973.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of doctor visits in which drugs are prescribed: 77%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Ambulatory Medical Care Utilization Estimates for 2007

Median Age of Workers

The oldest and youngest workers (median age)...

Farmers and ranchers: 57.7
Food service counter attendants: 21.5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished table, 2010 Current Population Survey

Medicare: Thumbs Up

Percentage of adults who think the quality of the health care they receive rates a 9 or 10 on a scale of 0 (worst) to 10 (best)...

Medicare recipients: 61%
Everyone else:  45%

Source: Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

Why the Nuclear Meltdown?

As noted in the post below, only 22 percent of households in the United States today are headed by married couples with children under age 18. This figure is down from a high of 45 percent in 1957--the peak year of the baby boom. Nuclear families now rank third in importance among household types, behind married couples without children at home (27 percent of households, most of them empty nesters) and people who live alone (also 27 percent).

A whole lot of demographic change has eroded the nuclear family. Once the stalwart of the American marketplace, nuclear families are now outnumbered and outspent by married couples without children at home. This is what happened to them:  

• Aging population As the large baby-boom generation aged into its fifties and sixties, empty nesters became more numerous than nuclear families.
• Higher education As more young adults went to college, they postponed marriage. The average age at first marriage has never been higher. 
• Smaller families As women have fewer children, they are spending fewer years raising them.
• Out-of-wedlock childbearing More than 40 percent of babies are born out-of-wedlock and--by definition--out of a nuclear family. 
• Divorce Once rare, divorce is now commonplace, breaking nuclear families into single-parent and single-person households.

Nuclear Meltdown

Percentage of American households headed by...

Nuclear families: 22%
People living alone: 27%

Note: Nuclear families are married couples with children under age 18.
Source: Bureau of the Census

Tick Tock

Today, the population of the United States will increase by 6,171 people.

Source: Census Bureau, U.S. Population Clock

Who Votes?

Percentage of citizens who voted in the 2008 presidential election, by race and Hispanic origin...

Non-Hispanic whites: 66.1%
Blacks: 64.7%
Hispanics: 49.9%
Asians: 48.0%

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2008

Religious or Not

Percentage of Americans who say they are...

Very religious: 17%
Not religious: 18%

Source: General Social Survey

Finances Getting Worse

The percentage of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse is at a record high, according to an analysis of 2010 results from the General Social Survey. Thirty-seven percent say their financial situation is getting worse, 38 percent say it is stable, and 24 percent (a record low) say their finances are getting better.

How Much Cash is in Your Pocket?

You have only $34 in your pocket, purse, or wallet right now--if you are typical. That is the median amount of cash carried by the average American, according to a recently published Federal Reserve Bank of Boston paper analyzing results of the 2009 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (yes, there really is such a thing).

You make 64.5 payments during a typical month (including everything from buying groceries to paying your credit card bill). You make 29 percent of those payments with a debit card, 28 percent with cash, 17 percent with a credit card, 13 percent with a check, and 5 percent with online bill payments. Money orders and bank account number payments account for most of the remainder.

During a year's time, 77 percent of Americans access their bank account by going into a bank, 69 percent use an ATM, 61 percent use online banking, 32 percent use telephone banking, and 9 percent use mobile banking services on their cell phone.

About those Landline Phones

Here is the AP headline in today's newspaper: "Landlines Falling by the Wayside." The story behind the headline describes the results of a new survey by the National Center for Health Statistics, released yesterday, that measured the presence of wireless and landline telephones in households by state. According to the results, 27 percent of households use wireless telephones only. This figure surpasses the 13 percent with landlines only. Thus the headline.

It is always a good idea to turn numbers around in your head and look at them from the opposite direction. If 27 percent of households are wireless only, then 73 percent of households still have a landline phone (minus a percentage point or two to account for households without any telephone whatsoever). Affluent households are most likely to have landlines, since they can afford both types of phones. In New Hampshire, the most affluent state, 83 percent of adults live in households with a landline phone. In Connecticut, the second most affluent state, the figure is an even higher 86 percent (the highest in the nation). In Mississippi and Arkansas, the two poorest states, 63 percent of adults are in homes with landline phones--the lowest in the nation but still a big number. The majority, in fact.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: State-level Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January 2007-June 2010

Bet You Didn't Know

Average number of years required to complete a bachelor's degree: 5.6.

Source: Bureau of the Census

Medical Visits Top 1 Billion

Americans visited a doctor, hospital outpatient department, or emergency room 1.2 billion times in 2007. That's four visits per person per year. Between 1997 and 2007, the annual number of medical visits grew by 25 percent.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Ambulatory Medical Care Utilization Estimates for 2007

Who Is the Most Stressed Out?

People aged 45 to 54 are most likely to be feeling stressed out and depressed, according to a government survey. When people aged 18 or older are asked how often during the past 30 days they have been feeling mental distress, fully 12.3 percent of 45-to-54-year-olds say they have felt mentally fragile on at least 14 of the past 30 days. Among all adults, the percentage is 10.6 percent. Least stressed are people aged 65 or older, with 6.6 percent feeling frequent mental distress.

Source: CDC, Health-Related Quality of Life

No More Social Security Statements

The Social Security Administration (SSA) has suspended issuing Social Security Statements--those annual summaries of your earnings history that arrive in the mail and tell you how much you can expect to receive from Social Security in retirement. "In light of the current budget situation, we have suspended issuing Social Security Statements," the SSA reports on its web site. Ironically, the termination of Social Security Statements is occurring simultaneously with the release of a study that shows how effective the statements are in educating the public about their Social Security benefits.

In a study of Social Security Statements, researchers at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College analyzed whether receiving a Social Security Statement boosted knowledge of future benefits. It does. Before Statements were introduced in 1995, workers had to apply online for information about their benefits and wait a month or more for an answer. Those who went through this time consuming process were much more knowledgable about their benefits than those who did not. But only about half of households made the effort before age 62. Enter the Social Security Statement, which provided benefit information to every worker every year without requiring them to contact the SSA. The Center for Retirement Research study found that receiving the Statement boosted the percentage of workers who could estimate their future benefits by up to 20 percentage points.

Alas, the Statement is no more. For those who want to know what their future retirement benefit will be, the Social Security Administration has some advice: "You may be able to estimate your retirement benefit using our online Retirement Estimator." In other words, goodbye and good luck.

1 Million Metros: Asians

These metropolitan areas are home to more than 1 million Asians...

	# Asians
Los Angeles:	1,884,669
New York:	1,878,261
San Francisco:	1,005,823

Source: 2010 census

1 Million Metros: Blacks

These metropolitan areas are home to more than 1 million blacks...

	# blacks
New York:	3,362,616
Atlanta:	1,707,913
Chicago:	1,645,993
Washington, DC:	1,438,436
Philadelphia:	1,241,780
Miami:	1,169,185
Houston:	1,025,775

Source: 2010 census

1 Million Metros: Hispanics

These metropolitan areas are home to more than 1 million Hispanics...

	# Hispanics
Los Angeles:	5,700,862
New York:	4,327,560
Miami:	2,312,929
Houston:	2,099,412
Riverside:	1,996,402
Chicago:	1,957,080
Dallas:	1,752,166
Phoenix:	1,235,718
San Antonio:	1,158,148

Source: 2010 census

The Least Diverse Metro

Parkersburg-Marietta-Vienna, West Virginia-Ohio: 96% non-Hispanic white.

Source: 2010 Census

Congress Not Honest, says Public

Percent rating the honesty and ethical standards of Congress as low/very low: 57%.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online, Table 2.15.2010

The College Bubble

In a recent article in the Washington Examiner, Glen Reynolds suggests that the higher education market is in a bubble of rising costs, driven by the perception among parents and children that a college education leads to higher earnings. The statistics do show a strong link between having a bachelor's degree and earning more. But does a bachelor's degree cause higher earnings or is there another reason for the association?

Reynolds notes that a college education can help people make more money in three ways: by giving them skills that pay well, by providing them with valuable social networks, and--here's the kicker--by providing "a credential that employers want, not because it represents actual skills but because it's a weeding tool that doesn't produce civil-rights suits as, say, IQ tests might."

Take a look at the job postings of any corporation, government, or university, and you soon discover that those without a bachelor's degree need not apply unless the job is janitor or parking lot attendant. Most employers have erected the barrier of a bachelor's degree as the minimum qualification for any job that pays a middle class wage. It could be that having a bachelor's degree does not cause higher earnings. Instead, the causal relationship flows in the other direction. Higher earnings are caused by the requirement that anyone who wants a well-paying job must have a bachelor's degree. For many jobs, the bachelor's degree barrier has no practical purpose. It is simply a hiring convenience for employers.

How do you untie this knot and free young adults and their parents from the frenzy to get a college degree at any cost? Good question.

Bad Math

Between 1999 and 2009 (after adjusting for inflation)...

Percent change in the cost of one year of college at a four-year school: +34%
Percent change in the median income of families with children: –7%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, 2010 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 345; and Bureau of the Census, Historical Income Tables—Families, Table F9

White Attitudes

Percentage of whites who say they feel close to blacks, by age...

aged 18 to 29: 54%
aged 65 or older: 35%

Source: 2010 General Social Survey

Minority Majorities in Large Metros

According to 2010 census results released this morning, among the nation's 51 metropolitan areas with populations of at least 1 million, minorities (primarily Asians, blacks, and Hispanics) are the majority in these 12...

METRO:	% minority
Los Angeles	68.4
Miami	65.2
San Jose	64.7
San Antonio	63.9
Riverside	63.4
Houston	60.3
San Francisco	57.6
Memphis	53.8
Las Vegas	52.0
San Diego	51.5
Washington	51.4
New York	51.1

Source: 2010 Census

In Denial

Percentage of homeowners who think the value of their house has increased or stayed the same since the start of the Great Recession: 48%

Source: Pew Research Center, Home Sweet Home. Still. 

More Spending, Please

When presented with a list of problems and asked whether the United States spends too little on them, about the right amount, or too much, the majority of the public says we should spend more on...

Improving the nation's education system: 73.9%
Assistance to the poor: 67.5%
Improving and protecting the nation's health: 60.3%
Improving and protecting the environment: 60.2%
Halting the rising crime rate: 59.5%
Social Security: 57.3%
Dealing with drug addiction: 56.4%
Assistance for child care: 51.7%
Drug rehabilitation: 51.6%

Source: Trends in National Spending Priorities, Tom W. Smith, National Opinion Research Center

Employer-Based Health Insurance Discourages Entrepreneurship

That is the finding of a new study by the Rand Corporation. By examining business ownership among workers with and without a spouse's health insurance coverage and with and without Medicare coverage, researchers at Rand discovered what they call an "entrepreneurship lock." Business starts are suppressed by workers' dependence on employer-based health insurance.

People with access to a spouse's health insurance plan are more likely to become self-employed than those who do not have this health insurance alternative, according to the results of the study. Self-employment also rises when people turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare and no longer need employer-based health insurance. In fact, self-employment rates jump up in the very month people turn 65.

The researchers conclude that "the bundling of health insurance and employment may create an inefficient level of business creation."

Marijuana Use

Number (and percent) of Americans aged 12 or older who have used marijuana in...

Lifetime: 104 million (42%)
Past year: 29 million (11%)
Past month: 17 million (7%)

Source: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health

Young Homeowners by Region

The 30-to-34 age group is important for the housing market. This is the age group in which the homeownership rate typically rises above the 50 percent threshold, making homeownership the norm. A look at the homeownership rate of households headed by 30-to-34-year-olds by region shows that rates have already fallen below this threshold in two regions. More declines could be in store if growing numbers of young adults find homeownership unaffordable (because of unemployment, students loans, and tougher mortgage requirements) or undesirable (fear of losing their job, fear of being tied down).

Percent of householders aged 30 to 34 who own their home by region in 2004 (the year the overall homeownership rate peaked nationally) and 2010...

	2010	2004
U.S. total	51.6	57.4
Northeast	49.7	51.9
Midwest	58.2	65.0
South	53.1	58.8
West	44.6	52.1

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Don't Expect Your Income to be Stable

A Census Bureau study of household income levels from 2004 through 2007 found that change--big change--is practically the norm. In a longitudinal analysis, the Census Bureau found 50 percent of households experiencing an income gain or loss of at least 25 percent between 2004 and 2007. Twenty-seven percent of households saw their income rise by at least 25 percent, and 22 percent of households saw their incomes fall by at least 25 percent. Note that the study years preceded the Great Recession.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Fluctuations in the U.S. Income Distribution, 2004-2007

Back to the Witch Doctor

Percentage of households whose members have done the following in the past 12 months because of cost...

Skipped dental care or checkups: 33%
Relied on home remedies instead of going to the doctor: 32%
Put off or postponed getting needed health care: 28%
Not filled a prescription for a medicine: 21%
Skipped a recommended medical test or treatment: 21%
Cut pills in half or skipped doses: 15%

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, Health Security Watch: April 2011

Who Needs Medicare?

A history lesson: Before Medicare came to the rescue in 1965, the poverty rate of Americans aged 65 or older was as high as 35.2 percent. Today, the poverty rate of the elderly is just 8.9 percent thanks to Medicare.

Before Medicare, few older Americans had health insurance because it was unaffordable. When they inevitably became ill, they spent down their savings to pay their medical bills, driving many into poverty--and that was before health care costs went through the roof. Research shows that net worth falls among adults whose parents do not have health insurance. Why is that? Because those children are not going to stand idly by while their parents get sick and die without medical care. So they spend down their savings to save mom and dad. And so on, and so on.

Who needs Medicare? Asked and answered.

Who Supports Gay Marriage?

Americans are much more supportive of gay marriage today than they used to be. There are two reasons for this. One, some people are changing their minds about the issue. Two, a generation gap has emerged in attitudes toward gay marriage, with younger, more accepting generations replacing older generations that frown on same-sex relationships.  

In 2010, 46 percent of the public agreed that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, according to the General Social Survey. In 1988, the first time the GSS asked this question, only 12 percent of the public supported gay marriage.

In 1988, there was little support for gay marriage in any cohort. Among boomers (then aged 24 to 42), only 14 percent agreed that gay/lesbian marriage should be legal. Among young adults (18 to 29), the figure was an almost identical 13 percent, which is not surprising since boomers accounted for most young adults at the time. Among people aged 65 or older in 1988, only 9 percent agreed that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry.

In 2010, the landscape is different. Boomers and older Americans have become more accepting of gay marriage over the years, but the majority is still opposed. Among boomers (aged 46 to 64), 41 percent now support gay marriage. Among people aged 65 or older, 34 percent are now in support. These numbers are significantly higher than they were in 1988, but they still represent a minority view. In contrast, among 18-to-29-year-olds in 2010, fully 65 percent think gays and lesbians should be allowed to marry.

In 1988, there was a tiny 4 percentage point difference in the proportion of young and old adults who thought gay marriage should be legal (13 and 9 percent, respectively). In 2010, the gap is an enormous 31 percentage points (65 and 34 percent, respectively).

As young adults age and replace older generations, gay marriage will become legal and will no longer be controversial. But because older Americans are much more likely to vote than younger adults, gay marriage will be an issue in the voting booth for years to come.

College Enrollment Rates

As of October, 68.1 percent of students who graduated from high school in 2010 were enrolled in college, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure was down from the record high of 70.1 percent in October 2009.

Women are far more likely than men to enroll in college. Among 2010 high school graduates, 74.0 percent of women and 62.8 percent of men were enrolled in college in October 2010.

The percentage also varied greatly by race and Hispanic origin. Asian high school graduates were most likely to be in college (84.0 percent), followed by whites (68.6 percent), and blacks (61.4 percent). Hispanic high school graduates were least likely to be enrolled in college (59.6 percent).

Teens Not at Work

Labor force participation rate of teenagers aged 16 to 19...

2000: 52%
2010: 35%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Legal Immigrants Top 1 Million, Again

The number of people obtaining legal permanent resident status in the United States (i.e., legal immigrants) exceeded 1 million in 2010, according to the newly released update of the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. The annual number of legal immigrants has surpassed 1 million each year since 2005.

The Average Man

The average man with a full-time job earned a median of $49,164 in 2009, according to the Current Population Survey—$321 less than he earned in 1973, after adjusting for inflation.

What are They Thinking?

Another miss for the media, according to the latest weekly survey by the Pew Research Center.

During the past week, the American public continued to be most interested in news about the Japanese disaster (50 percent said they were following this story most closely), but only 12 percent of news stories were about Japan.

The economy ranked a distant second in the public's news interest (14 percent were following stories about the economy most closely), and 10 percent of news stories were about the economy.

Libya is a different—and apparently the only—story. Only 13 percent of the public is following the news about Libya most closely, yet Libya dominated the news and accounted for 34 percent of coverage.

No wonder Americans have so little confidence in the press.

Planning Never to Retire is Not a Retirement Plan

According to the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey, 74 percent of the nation's workers plan to work for pay in retirement. But among the nation's retirees, only 23 percent are working. Although many boomers think they will work in retirement, it is likely that most will not.

A number of things conspire to prevent the elderly from working well into their sixties and seventies, not the least of which is deteriorating health. The life expectancy of people aged 65 in 2006 was 18.5 years, but only 12.2 of those years are free of activity-limiting disabilities, according to an analysis by the National Center for Health Statistics. For married couples, the shared years of health remaining at age 65 are even less. Caregiving responsibilities multiply. Those who think they will work in retirement need a Plan B.

Millions Fewer Non-Hispanic Whites

Size of non-Hispanic white population...

2010 census:   196,817,552
2009 estimate: 199,851,240

Difference:        –3,033,688

Dear Social Scientist

You do important research. You connect the dots for the rest of us. But if you want the rest of us to marvel at your findings, please explain your research in a way that the average journalist or armchair pundit can understand. Otherwise, your work will fall into the black hole of good intentions, never to be seen again.

Case in point: The Federal Reserve Board's new update of household wealth. Important stuff. But the written analysis is so complex that the findings were virtually ignored by the media. Journalists could not make sense of it. The supplemental tables contained calculations that could not be replicated using the numbers shown, causing the average armchair pundit to throw up his hands in disgust. (See my analysis of the wealth update here, here, and here.)

Another example: A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research on the effect of health crises on household wealth. That sounds interesting, and it is timely. But the analysis is written for statistics geeks, making the findings (yes, health crises do affect wealth, even across generations)  inaccessible to journalists who might have reported on the results.

Please summarize your findings. Write in plain English. Make the results notable and quotable. In doing so, your social science research may escape the black hole and become a shining star, helping us navigate into the future.

Big Numbers

More than 111 million Americans are Asian, black, Hispanic, or some other minority—36 percent of the total population, according to the 2010 census. That's enough to sit up and take notice, especially because so many states (20, plus the District of Columbia) have large minority populations.

The states in which minorities account for at least one-third of the population: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

The states in which fewer than 10 percent of the population is minority: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Source: Bureau of the Census, An Overview: Race and Hispanic Origin and the 2010 Census

The Aging of Housing

The average household lives in a housing unit with a median age of 35 years. In other words, half the nation's occupied housing units were built in 1974 or earlier and half were built after that year, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey.

The nation's housing stock renews slowly. Very slowly. And the rate of renewal is slowing, too. In 1999, the median age of the nation's occupied housing units was 30 years, with half built in 1969 or before and half after that year. In 1989, the median age of occupied housing units was 26 years, with 1963 the median year of construction. Despite the housing bubble and overbuilding in many parts of the country, the occupied housing stock is older today than it was ten or twenty years ago.

At the current rate of renewal, it will take more than 60 years before the houses being built in 2011 or later account for half the occupied housing units in the United States. Bottom line: If we want to see widespread housing innovation in our lifetimes--such as greater energy efficiency, digital home integration, and improved access to public services--then it must occur through rehabilitation of existing structures and communities rather than through new construction and developments.

Who Goes to the Movies?

Among Americans aged 18 or older, 53 percent have been to a movie in the past year. Here is the percentage by age...

18-24:  74%
25-34:  65%
35-44:  60%
45-54:  53%
55-64:  46%
65-74:  32%
75+:  19%

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, 2008 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts

The Mystery of Travel Statistics

Ever wonder what would happen if we privatized our demographic and economic data collection systems? To find out, take a look at the sorry state of travel statistics. You would think an industry of such importance to the U.S. economy would have a readily accessible trove of numbers, trends, and insights available to reporters, researchers, entrepreneurs, and armchair pundits. Instead, the statistics are locked up in organizations run by lobbyists for the travel industry, which charge hundreds of dollars for research publications on top of hefty membership fees. Google the government agency in charge of travel information, and you will click upon the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, self-described as "an official U.S. Government site produced and maintained by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries." Except for summary statistics, the annual reports go for $1,000 and up. Chilling.

Couch Potatoes

Percentage of American adults who are physically inactive: 33%.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009

The Housing Market's Problem

Yes, the unemployment rate is falling. Slowly. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate declined to 8.8 percent in March, down from 8.9 percent in February. We may be on the road to recovery, but our progress is blocked by what has been destroyed: confidence. The average American worker feels much less secure in his job than he did a few years ago. The percentage who think there is no chance they could lose their job in the next year, as shown in the post below, fell from 71 to 52 percent between 2000 and 2010, according to the General Social Survey.

This insecurity might be good news for businesses that want to hold down wages. But it is a disaster for the housing market. With the threat of unemployment looming over them, how many will be brave enough to buy a house? Apparently, not many.

Fear of Job Loss

Percentage of American workers who think it is "not likely" that they will lose their job in the next 12 months...

2010:  52%
2008:  59%
2006:  64%
2004:  64%
2002:  63%
2000:  71%

Source: General Social Surveys

A New Baby Bust?

Fertility rates fell more rapidly between 2007 and 2009 than they have in any two-year period during the past thirty years, according to a new report by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Birth rates fell among women in every age group under age 40. Among women aged 20 to 24, the birth rate fell to the lowest level ever recorded (96.3 births per 1,000 women). Births also fell in every race/Hispanic origin group, with the largest decline among Hispanics.

By state, fertility rates fell or were unchanged in every state. The biggest declines were in Arizona (-12%) and Nevada (-10%). Other states with an above average decline in fertility (more than 4%) were: California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Recent Decline in Births in the United States, 2007-2009

Little Savings

Percentage of workers who have saved $100,000 or more: 24%.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey

The Boomer Inheritance

How has the Great Recession affected the long anticipated inheritance of the baby-boom generation? According to a new study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the total amount still to be inherited by the baby-boom generation fell from $6.0 trillion in June 2006 to $5.2 trillion in June 2010 as stock and housing values declined.

Overall, two-thirds of boomer households will ultimately receive an inheritance. According to the researchers, $2.4 trillion has already been inherited by the 17 percent of boomer households that have so far received an inheritance. Median value: $78,000 per household. Fifty-eight percent of boomers still have at least one living parent, so most have yet to receive an inheritance, say the researchers, who estimate the median amount still to be inherited at $47,000 per household.

The researchers caution that the amounts to be inherited by boomers "are typically not large enough to be life-changing. Therefore, boomer households need to make many of their key financial decisions before they ever receive any inheritance."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, "How Important Are Inheritances for Baby Boomers?"

Media Out of Sync

"The public's news interests this week are far out of sync with the news media's coverage," reports the Pew Research Center. Take a look:

Percentage of people who are following the news about Japan very closely: 57%
Percentage of news coverage devoted to Japan: 15%

Percentage of people who are following the news about Libya very closely: 15%
Percentage of news coverage devoted to Libya: 41%

Source: Pew Research Center, Public Stays Focused on Japan as Media Turns to Libya

Televisions, Computers, and Rechargeables

Number per household (percent distribution)...

Televisions:
0	1.5%
1	24.2%
2	37.5%
3	26.6%
4	14.2%
5+	9.7%
Computers:
0	27.4%
1	46.9%
2	24.3%
3	9.5%
4	3.6%
5+	2.0%
Rechargeable Electronic Devices:
0	11.4%
1 to 3	57.9%
4 to 8	36.4%
9+	7.9%

Source: EIA, 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey

Metropolis

Eighty-three percent of Americans live in one of the nation's 366 metropolitan areas.
One in ten lives in New York or Los Angeles.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010

Vehicle Values Fall

Car and truck sales plunged during the Great Recession. Instead of buying new models, Americans clung to their depreciating automobiles. This explains the steep drop in the median value of household vehicles between 2007 and 2009.

In 2007, the median value of the vehicles owned by the average household was $16,200 (in 2009 dollars). By 2009, the figure had dropped to $12,000--a 26 percent decline, according to the Federal Reserve Board's analysis of household wealth. For much more data by demographic characteristic, see the appendix tables that accompany the Fed report, Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009. For important information on how to interpret the tables, see my earlier post.

An Average Day: Sleeping

On an average day, amount of time people aged 15 or older spend sleeping...

Weekdays: 8.40 hours
Weekends: 9.34 hours

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

The Obama Effect on Racial Identification

Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people who identified themselves as black and white more than doubled, climbing from 785,000 to 1.8 million, a 134 percent increase. This combination alone accounted for nearly half the increase in the nation's multiracial population during the decade.

In 2000, the black/white combination accounted for only 11 percent of the total multiracial population. This group was greatly outnumbered by white/other (many "others" were Hispanics who were unaware that Hispanic is an ethnicity rather than a race), white/Asian, and white/American Indian.

In 2010, the black/white mix surged ahead of all the others, accounting for 20 percent of the total multiracial population. Why? Most likely, it is the Obama Effect. The nation's first multiracial president has boosted the popularity of asserting a multiracial identity, particularly the black/white combination. It is also likely that many of those doing the asserting are parents of children under age 18. As of 2009, the median age of the multiracial population was just 20, well below the median age of 37 for all Americans. We do not yet know the age distribution of the multiracial in 2010, but it is likely to be much more youthful than the general population. What accounts for this? Parents. When answering the census, parents supply the information for children under age 18, including racial identification. Many parents identify their children as multiracial (and increasingly so), but when those children become adults they may choose to adopt a single-race identification. Unless, that is, the Obama Effect permanently changes racial identification in the United States.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin 2010 and Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin 2000

Bet You Didn't Know

Number of American families with an unemployed family member: 1 in 8.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families

This Is Where Your Customers Went

Any business wondering where the customers went can find out by taking a look at the Federal Reserve Board's new estimates of household debt. Millions of households, it turns out, are carrying the baggage of education loans, preventing them from buying homes, cars, furniture, going to restaurants, or taking vacations.

In 2009, a substantial 18 percent of households in the United States had education loans. This was up from 16 percent in 2007. By age, the percentage of households with student debt extends well into middle age. Take a look:

Under age 35:  37%
Aged 35 to 44: 20%
Aged 45 to 54: 18%
Aged 55 to 64: 10%

These loans are not trifling either. The size of student loans exceeds vehicle loans and far surpasses credit card debt. For households with student debt, the median amount owed was $15,000 in 2009, up from $12,400 in 2007 (in 2009 dollars)--a 21 percent increase in two years. For the record, the median amount households owed on vehicle loans was a smaller $12,400. The median amount owed on credit cards was just $3,300.

The households most burdened by student loans are the same ones many businesses were counting on to spend their way out of the Great Recession: married couples with children (24 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $15,000), renters (24 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $12,000), and college graduates (25 percent have student loans, and they owe a median of $20,000).

A funny thing happened on the way to where we are today. Your customers signed on a dotted line, and now their current and future income is being siphoned off by someone else.

Confusing Numbers

If you are digging into the updated Survey of Consumer Finances data, released earlier today, watch out for a confusing presentation of changes in medians. The percent change columns in the tables are median percent changes, not the percent change in median values. Likewise, the dollar change columns are median dollar changes, not the dollar amount by which the median changed.

Between 2007 and 2009, for example, median household net worth fell from $125,400 to $96,000 (in 2009 dollars), a 23 percent decline in the median value. But the table provided by the Federal Reserve shows "median % change" to be -18 rather than -23. That's because the Feds are measuring the median percent change in net worth rather than the percent change in median net worth. In other words, half of households saw their net worth decline by more than 18 percent between 2007 and 2009 and half saw their net worth decline by less than 18 percent. Likewise, the dollar change in median net worth between 2007 and 2009 was $29,400. Yet the Feds show "median $ change" to be $11,400. This means that half of households saw their net worth decline by more than $11,400 between 2007 and 2009 and half saw their net worth decline by less than that amount.

Insanely confusing.

Race & Hispanic, 2010 Census

This was a big day for demographers. Not only did the Federal Reserve Board release the long-awaited update on household wealth (see post below), but the Census Bureau released the 2010 population totals by race and Hispanic origin. Here they are (numbers in thousands):

		% change
	2010	2000–10
Total population	308,746	9.7
Asians (race alone)	14,674	43.3
Blacks (race alone)	38,929	12.3
Hispanics	50,478	43.0
Non-Hispanic whites	196,818	1.2

How Much Did Net Worth Fall?

The answer: 23 percent.

The Great Recession reduced median household net worth by 23 percent, according to the long-awaited update of the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances. This unprecedented update was undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board solely to determine the impact of the Great Recession on household net worth, assets, and debt.

Median household net worth fell from $125,400 in 2007 to $96,000 in 2009 (in 2009 dollars). The decline in wealth occurred across the board, affecting nearly two out of three households.

The biggest reason for the decline in wealth was the loss of housing equity, which is the single largest asset owned by the average household. The median value of owned homes fell from $207,100 in 2007 to $176,000 in 2009 (in 2009 dollars). Unfortunately, the decline in housing values continues.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009

The Detroit Surprise

The city of Detroit's population loss between 2000 and 2010 was not a surprise. The magnitude of the loss was a surprise. Here's why: 

2009 estimate of Detroit's population: 910,848

2010 census count of Detroit's population: 713,777

Source: 2009 American Community Survey and 2010 Census

North and South

Percentage of people who do not have health insurance, by region...

Northeast:  11%
Midwest: 12%
South:  20%
West: 19%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-September 2010

Are You Past Your Prime?

Staying on top of your finances is getting more and more complex. So complex, in fact, that doing it successfully is often beyond the capabilities of the inexperienced (such as young adults) and the naive (such as older adults). In fact, a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (What Is the Age of Reason? ) shows that younger and older adults do not make the best choices when managing their personal finances. Who does? To be precise, people aged 53.3.

That's right. A series of tests on people of different ages, asking them to make real-world decisions regarding credit cards and interest rates, for example, revealed that 53.3 is the average age when people make the fewest financial mistakes.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of whites who feel close to blacks, by age...

Aged 18 to 30: 54%
Aged 30 to 64: 38%
Aged 65 or older: 35%

Note: On a scale of 1 (not at all close) to 9 (very close), percent who say 6 to 9.
Source: 2010 General Social Survey

Why Do Renters Move?

Ask renters why they moved and "for a job" is often what you hear, according to the American Housing Survey. Twenty-five percent of renters who moved in the past year did so for employment reasons.  

The job factor is especially important for renters who moved into new housing--newly built apartments or single-family homes. Thirty-two percent of renters who moved into a new unit in the past year cited a new job, a job transfer, or the need to be closer to their job. 

With gasoline approaching $4.00 per gallon, the job factor is likely to become increasingly important to renters as they decide where to live. 

Source: Bureau of the Census, American Housing Survey

Poor Demographics

Percent distribution of the poverty population by race and Hispanic origin...

Non-Hispanic whites: 43%
Hispanics: 28%
Blacks: 24%

Source: Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey

Kids and Parents

Percentage of children under age 18 who live with...

at least one biological parent: 94%
at least one stepparent: 6%
at least one adoptive parent: 2%

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2010

An Average Day: Socializing

Thirty-eight percent of Americans socialize on an average day, a figure that varies little by age. Socializing is defined as hanging out with friends, hanging out with family, talking to neighbors, accompanying friends or family while they run errands, giving gifts, and visiting people in hospitals and nursing homes. 

Those who socialize spend an hour and 40 minutes hanging out.   

Source: American Time Use Survey

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Wave of Change

Percentage of people who support the right of same-sex couples to marry, by generation (and age in 2010)...

Millennials (18 to 33): 62%
Generation X (34 to 45): 45%
Boomers (46 to 64): 41%
Older Americans (65+): 34%

Source: 2010 General Social Survey

The Mystery of the High School Graduate

This is not a rant against the educational system or teachers. It is a rant against the morons who presume to "measure" their success with the so-called "averaged freshmen high school graduation rate." This rate makes headlines in every local newspaper across the country, purporting to show how poorly local schools are performing. Nationally, the rate was 74.9 percent in 2007-08 (the latest data available)--which is interpreted by the news media and by many experts who should know better to mean that only 74.9 percent of American children graduate from high school. The rate varies widely by state, from a low of 51.3 percent in Nevada to a high of 89.6 percent in Wisconsin.

You probably think this rate is calculated as it should be--by tracking individual high school freshmen and determining how many eventually graduate from high school. You would be wrong. It is calculated by the National Center for Education Statistics this way: headcount of high school graduates in a given year divided by headcount of freshmen in the school district four years earlier. 

Do you see the problem here? Students who move out of a school district or even transfer to a local private school become "dropouts." Students who get their GED rather than a high school diploma are "dropouts." Students who are held back a year for whatever reason are counted as "dropouts." This explains why states with high levels of migration (Nevada) have lower graduation rates than states with little migration (Wisconsin). The resulting "graduation rates" that make headlines--and bring the wrath of taxpayers down on their local schools--have nothing to do with the success or failure of schools and everything to do with broader demographic trends.

The National Center for Education Statistics also calculates high school completion rates another way, a way that actually measures educational success. Using data from the Current Population Survey, the NCES statisticians calculate the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who have a high school diploma or GED (see table here). By this calculation, 89.9 percent of the age group had completed high school in 2008--an all time high.  

Watching Japan

Fifty-two percent of Americans followed news of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan "very closely" during the days of March 10-13, according to Pew Research Center. Pew regularly tracks interest in specific news events.

While the majority were following the Japan story "very closely," the percentage was below the level of interest in other disasters in recent years, as you can see below...

Hurricane Katrina: 70%
Haiti earthquake: 60%
Indian Ocean tsunami: 58%
Japanese disaster: 52%

The all-time winner in grabbing the attention of the American public was the Challenger disaster of 1986, followed "very closely" by 80 percent. This surpassed the 78 percent who "very closely" followed news of the 9/11 attacks.

Life Expectancy Climbs Again

Life expectancy at birth has resumed its climb, rising from 78.0 years in 2008 to 78.2 years in 2009. Mortality rates fell for 10 of the 15 leading causes of death. Rates (age-adjusted) are lowest in Hawaii and highest in West Virginia.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2009

Retirement Confidence Is Down

Americans are not as confident in having enough money to live comfortably in retirement, according to the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey released today. Only 13 percent of the nation's workers are "very" confident the money will be there, down from a high of 27 percent in 2007. This is hardly a surprise.

What is surprising is that only 27 percent are "not at all" confident they will have the money to retire. Although this is the largest proportion ever recorded by the Retirement Confidence Survey, it is far from being the norm. It means the 73 percent majority of workers have at least a little confidence in being able to afford retirement. This may be why: 74 percent expect to work for pay in "retirement."

Not Retiring Anytime Soon

Percentage of workers aged 55 or older who expect to retire at age 66 or older...

2001: 25%
2011: 50%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey

Corporate Shills?

Percentage who think corporations make a fair and reasonable profit...

All registered voters:  39%
Tea Party supporters:  62%

Source: Pew Research Center

They Don't Trust You

Note to banks, investment companies, health insurance companies, hospitals, drug companies, housing developers, realtors, airlines, car companies, and every other business still trying to market like the Great Recession never happened: They don't trust you. They think you are a crook.

It's only going to get worse because young adults are the most suspicious, according to results from the 2010 General Social Survey. Only 18 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds think most people can be trusted. Only 14 percent have a "great deal" of confidence in major companies. The 51 percent majority think you are trying to take advantage of them.

Rethink your marketing.

Update: How Many Americans Are Gay?

Every few years the National Center for Health Statistics surveys the American public about its sexual behavior and orientation. The latest survey results are out, and they are a lot less interesting than you might expect--mostly because little has changed.   

Asking the kinds of questions that would make your mother blush, the National Survey of Family Growth examines family development from first sexual encounter to ongoing sexual behavior, sexual orientation, sex practices, contraceptive use, fertility, infertility, pregnancy, marriage, and divorce. By focusing on people aged 15 to 44, it captures current trends. The survey was once limited to women, but expanded to include men in 2002. The latest data, from the 2006-08 cycle of interviews, confirms many of the findings from the 2002 survey. 

According to the latest report, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Identity in the United States: Data from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth, 4.6 percent of women aged 18 to 44 identify themselves as lesbian or bisexual. This is up from 4.1 percent in 2002. Among men in the age group, 2.8 percent identify themselves as gay or bisexual, down from 4.1 percent in 2002. While the numbers have changed, the changes are minor.    

In another take on the issue of sexual orientation, the survey asks whether people are attracted to the opposite sex or the same sex. Among women aged 18 to 44, 83.3 percent say they are sexually attracted only to men. Among men in the age group, 93.5 percent say they are sexually attracted only to women. These figures are also similar to 2002 results (85.7 percent of women and 92.2 percent of men). 

When asked whether they had ever had any same-sex contact, 12.5 percent of women and 5.2 percent of men aged 15 to 44 answered yes (in 2002, the figures were 11.2 and 6.0 percent, respectively). Among men, same-sex contact was specifically defined as oral or anal sex. Among women, the questions were about oral sex and a broader "sexual experience of any kind." The broader question posed to women may account for the much larger percentage of women who have had same-sex contact.

You may scoff at the notion that respondents will answer questions about sexual behavior and orientation honestly. It is no doubt true that many are lying. But they are lying consistently over the years. Consistency makes this survey a valuable addition to our knowledge about sexual behavior and orientation in the United States. 

An Average Day: Spending

Amount spent by the average household per day
on all products, services, and bills: $134.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Be Careful

Almost daily, 2010 census data are being released state by state. Most of the resulting census stories have an unreal feeling about them; they are a throwback to earlier times of heady growth in the once booming South and West. For trend spotters, it is our bad luck that the two censuses occurred on either side of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Any analysis of change between 2000 and 2010 will miss the dislocations caused by the Great Recession.  

Arizona's population grew 25 percent during the decade, for example. But does anyone think Arizona has been growing recently? The population of Phoenix was up 9 percent between 2000 and 2010, yet it is probably losing people now. Population experts in Arizona say the state has grown little, if at all, for the past three years.

We will have to wait another year or two before we have up-to-date data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey that will reveal the trends ushered in by the Great Recession. While the census gives us a good snapshot of the population in 2010, it cannot give us an accurate picture of current trends.

Stupid or Selfish?

Among people aged 65 or older...

Percent with government health insurance: 94%.
Percent who think government should help people pay medical bills: 35%.

Source: Census Bureau and General Social Survey

Projections of Education Statistcs

The latest annual Projections of Education Statistics report is now available on the National Center for Education Statistics web site. Projections are for the years 2009 through 2019 and cover school enrollment at all levels, high school graduates, degrees conferred, teachers, and educational expenditures. While the topic seems interesting, the results never fail to be strangely boring because few changes are ever foreseen. No drama here.

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of people with children who think their children's standard of living will be better than their own, by age...

18-44: 67%
45-64: 54%
65-plus: 47%

Source: General Social Survey