Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Incomes Decline in 2010: Here's the Story

The Great Recession was supposed to have ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. But the release last week of the 2010 income statistics calls that claim into question. According to the Census Bureau, median household income fell to $49,445 in 2010--7 percent lower than in 2000, after adjusting for inflation--and that's just the beginning of the story.

I would hazard a guess that the macroeconomic indicators on which the National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions have become decoupled from the microeconomics of American households--thanks to globalization and the rise of multinational corporations. The Census Bureau even includes a helpful chart in its income report showing just how odd this "recovery" has been. It is the only one in modern history in which the number of workers with earnings has declined. There were 1.6 million fewer workers in the "recovery" year of 2010 than during the Great Recession itself. It ain't over folks, and by the time the Great Recession does end we might need a new name for it. Economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has taken to calling it the Lesser Depression.

If the politicians cannot hear the middle class crying for help in the 2010 income statistics, then we really are trapped in a downward spiral on our way to becoming a third world nation. At this point, the only thing propping open the doors of many businesses is the valiant effort by middle class families to keep up appearances by spending down their savings and taking on debt (mainly in the form of student loans). They can't fake it much longer.

Rather than focus on the big story contained in the income statistics, the media have been tsk-tsking in knee-jerk fashion about the rise in the poverty rate--copying and pasting from the bullet points of the Census Bureau's press release. Sure, poverty is an important problem, but its rise is perhaps the least surprising finding in the 2010 numbers. Poverty is a small part of the bigger story: the massive decline in the standard of living of the great majority of Americans. The media's failure to report the big story gives cover to the many politicians who are intent on ignoring the elephant in the room as they fatten their wallets for the 2012 elections.

Somebody has to tell the story. Why not an obscure blog about demographic trends? So let's begin at the bottom of the age distribution and work our way up.

The young. If the world is in the midst of an historic technological and economic transformation caused by the Internet revolution (it is, in my opinion), then the consequences will emerge first among the youngest adults--the pioneers in the emergent society. That's what the 2010 income statistics show. The median income of householders under age 25 fell by a stunning 20 percent (to $28,322) between 2000 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation. This startling decline occurred despite the fact that many young adults have given up entirely and moved back home with mom and dad. The number of households headed by people under age 25 has been declining even as the population has been growing. Increasingly, the young adults left fending for themselves are the ones without parents with the resources to take them in.

The middle aged. The Census Bureau reports that a substantial 14 percent of adults aged 25 to 34 now live with their parents. Many have had little choice but to move back home since the median household income of this age group fell 11 percent between 2000 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation. Householders aged 35 to 44 did not fare much better, with a 9 percent decline in their median income. Then we get to the real horror story: householders aged 45 to 54. Their median income fell by 14 percent between 2000 and 2010, a decline second only to the one experienced by the youngest householders. The 45-to-54 age group has seen its median income fall by more than $10,000 since 2000! So precipitous has been this decline that the age group--once the nation's peak earners--now makes only 26 percent more than the average household, down from a margin of more than 40 percent in the 1990s. The household income gap between the 35-to-44 and 45-to-54 age groups once exceeded $8,000. By 2010 it had shrunk nearly tenfold to just $841.

Older generations. It might seem as though there is more stability in the older generations. The median income of householders aged 55 to 64 fell just 0.4 percent between 2000 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation--but only because they are working harder to stay even. During the decade, the labor force participation rate of men aged 55 to 64 climbed from 67 to 70 percent and that of women from 52 to 60 percent. Half of married couples in the 55-to-64 age group are now dual earners, up from 44 percent in 2000. The only seeming bright spot in the income statistics is among householders aged 65 or older, with a 7 percent rise in their median income during the decade. But again, labor force participation rates are rising in the age group, and whatever financial stability older Americans possess cannot be passed down to younger generations since it exists in the form of defined benefit pensions and Social Security and Medicare benefits--all of which have been axed or are being threatened by mad-as-hell politicians intent on cutting the deficit at any cost.

History will show, in my opinion, that the Internet is behind the upheaval in our society. But the dire situation in which the middle class now finds itself has been caused primarily by the failure of our politicians to respond appropriately to the challenges and opportunities the digital society presents.

For a comparison of median household incomes by age in 2010 and 2000, see this Demo Memo blog post.

Monday, September 19, 2011

A Lot of Texting

Seventy-three percent of cell phone owners use text messaging, according to a new report by Pew. Average number of text messages sent/received per day by adults who use text messaging on their cell phones, by age...

Total: 41.5
18-24: 109.5
25-34: 41.8
35-44: 25.9
45-54: 14.0
55-64: 9.8
65-plus: 4.7

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, How Americans Use Text Messaging

The Security in Social Security

Percent of people aged 65 or older who are poor: 9.0%.
Percent of people aged 65 or older who would be poor without Social Security: 48%.

Source: Census Bureau, Effect of Benefits and Taxes on Income and Poverty

Sunday, September 18, 2011

No Health Insurance Coverage

The percentage of Americans with no health insurance coverage at any time during the year grew by 3 percentage points during the past decade, from 13.1 percent in 2000 to 16.3 percent in 2010. Here are the  percentages of people without health insurance in 2010...

Total: 16.3%
< age 18: 9.8%
18 to 24: 27.2%
25 to 34: 28.4%
35 to 44: 21.8%
45 to 54: 18.0%
55 to 64: 14.4%
65-plus: 2.0%

Source: Census Bureau, Health Insurance

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Employment-Based Health Insurance

The percentage of Americans covered by employment-based health insurance has fallen by nearly 10 percentage points during the past decade, from 65.1 percent in 2000 to 55.3 percent in 2010. Here are the  percentages of people covered by employment-based health insurance in 2010...

Total: 55.3%
< age 18: 54.8%
18 to 24: 45.9%
25 to 34: 55.8%
35 to 44: 64.2%
45 to 54: 66.4%
55 to 64: 64.5%
65-plus:  32.5%

Source: Census Bureau, Health Insurance

Friday, September 16, 2011

1.3 Million More Living Alone

You would think in the middle of a massive economic downturn Americans would be less inclined to live alone. Yet the Census Bureau's 2011 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement--which provides official income and poverty statistics--finds almost the entire 1.1 million increase in households between 2010 and 2011 to have occurred in the number of people who live alone. This would explain why average household size fell slightly from 2.59 to 2.58 people.

People living alone
2011: 32,723,000
2010: 31,399,000
Difference = +1,324,000

The increase in single-person households was not caused by more of the elderly living alone. The numerical gains occurred almost entirely among people under age 65. The biggest increase in the propensity to live alone occurred in the 55-to-64 age group. Among women in the age group, the share who live alone grew from 17.8 to 19.0 percent between 2010 and 2011. Among men in the age group, the share climbed from 15.2 to 17.2 percent. More than one in four households in the United States (27.6 percent) are people who live alone.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Households Grow by More than 1 Million

The number of households in the United States grew by more than 1 million between 2010 and 2011, according to the Current Population Survey's 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. This one-year increase in households was the largest since 2006-07 and more than three times as great as the increase between 2009-10. By age, the number of households in 2011 and the change since 2010 look like this (numbers in 000s)...

      2011  change
Total  118,682 1,144
<25  6,140 -93
25-34  19,572 315
35-44  21,250 -269
45-54  24,530 -341
55-64  21,828 1,441
65-plus  25,362 92

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

$100,000-plus Households

Percentage of households with incomes of $100,000 or more (in 2010 dollars)...

1970: 8.2%
1980: 11.0%
1990: 15.6%
2000: 21.4%
2007: 21.9% (peak year)
2010: 20.5%

Source: Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

More Wives Earn More

Percentage of wives who earn more than their husbands...

2010: 29%
2000: 23%
1990: 18%

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables

Some Good News about Health Insurance

In the barrage of bad news emanating from Census Bureau's release of income, poverty, and health insurance statistics for 2010 is one small piece of good news: the percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds who do not have health insurance fell by more than 2 percentage points between 2009 and 2010--from 29.3 to 27.2 percent.

This statistically significant decline in the percentage of young adults without health insurance is due to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (otherwise known as Obamacare), which allows young adults to remain on their parents' health insurance plan until age 26. Because of the decline, the 25-to-34 age group is now the one most likely to be without health insurance, at 28.4 percent in 2010.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Men's Incomes Plummet

The 2010 income statistics were especially bad for men. Here is the percent change in the median income of men by age, 2000 to 2010 (in 2010 dollars)...

2010 2000    % ch
Total   32,137  35,885 -10.4
< 25  9,959  12,086 -17.6
25-34  31,793  38,305 -17.0
35-44  42,252  48,014 -12.0
45-54  45,420  51,960 -12.6
55-64  41,197  43,287 -4.8
65-plus  25,704  24,577 4.6

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

College Bubble about to Burst

Who are the biggest spenders on education? Householders under age 25 and aged 45 to 54: college students and their parents. Those two age groups account for 56 percent of all household spending on college tuition, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

These are the age groups that have experienced the largest declines in household income over the past decade, according to numbers released by the Census Bureau. Householders under age 25 saw their median household income fall by a stunning 20 percent between 2000 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation. Those aged 45 to 54 experienced a 14 percent decline--a loss of more than $10,000. No other age groups have been hurt as badly by the Great Recession as these.

The downward spiral in the incomes of college students and their parents explains why nonrevolving consumer credit (a figure that includes student loans) is growing at an annual rate of 11.2 percent, according to the Federal Reserve. It also explains why the percentage of student loans in default reached 8.8 percent as of September 2010--up from 7 percent a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

The college market is a bubble about to burst. What will colleges look like after the implosion?

Double-Digit Losses in 14 States

Fourteen states saw double-digit declines in median household income during the past decade (two-year moving averages 1999-2000 to 2009-2010), after adjusting for inflation...

Alabama: -11.6
Delaware: -13.3
Georgia: -15.7
Illinois: -12.1
Indiana: -13.1
Michigan: -21.0
Minnesota: -15.9
Mississippi: -14.3
Missouri: -13.9
North Carolina: -11.2
Ohio: -12.6
South Carolina: -12.4
Tennessee: -12.2
Wisconsin: -12.2

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables

Median Household Income Drops

Median household income fell to $49,445 in 2010, according to the Census Bureau, down from $50,599 in 2009 (a 2.3 percent decline) and $53,164 in 2000 (a 7.0 percent decline), after adjusting for inflation. Among householders under age 25, median household income has fallen 20 percent since 2000. The decline in median household income ranges from 9 to 14 percent for householders between the ages of 25 and 55. Here are the ugly numbers, all in 2010 dollars.

2010 2000      % ch.
Total  49,445  53,164 -7.0
<25  28,322  35,257 -19.7
25-34  50,059  56,233 -11.0
35-44  61,644  68,069 -9.4
45-54  62,485  72,981 -14.4
55-64  56,575  56,789 -0.4
65-plus  31,408  29,226 7.5

Source: Census Bureau, 2011 Current Population Survey

Monday, September 12, 2011

Big Day Tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the Census Bureau releases income, poverty, and health insurance statistics for 2010, based on the 2011 Current Population Survey (fielded in March). For all you demographic trend trackers, tomorrow is the equivalent of Christmas. For details about how to tune in to the 10:00 a.m. live online presentation, click here. The Census Bureau expects "substantial interest in these findings," so log in early.

The single most important number to be revealed tomorrow is median household income. My guess is that the median will be little changed from the $49,777 of 2009 (which was 5 percent below the median of 2000, after adjusting for inflation). Behind the stability is the structure of the population, with lots of older Americans on fixed incomes (remember when a "fixed income" was a bad thing?) and lots of boomers in their peak-earning years. The drama is likely to be in median income by age among householders under age 55.

Visit this page tomorrow for the results.

The Generations, 2010

Below are the 2010 census counts of the U.S. population by generation, calculated using single-year of age data released by the Census Bureau. The total population in 2010 was 308,745,538...

iGeneration: 65,470,033 (21.2%)
   aged 15 and younger, born 1995 and later
Millennial generation: 76,608,254 (24.8%)
   aged 16 to 33, born 1977 to 1994
Generation X: 49,418,690 (16.0%)
   aged 34 to 45, born 1965 to 1976
Baby-boom generation: 76,980,577 (24.9%)
   aged 46 to 64, born 1946 to 1964
Older generations: 40,267,984 (13.0%)
   aged 65 and older, born 1945 and earlier

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Deaths Due to Terrorism

Number of U.S. citizens killed in international terrorist incidents...

2001: 2,689
2002: 27
2003: 35
2004: NA
2005: 56
2006: 28
2007: 19
2008: 33
2009: 25
2010: 15

Source: National Counterterrorism Center

Saturday, September 10, 2011

An Average Day: Leisure

Americans aged 15 or older enjoy 5.18 hours of leisure time on an average day, spending 53 percent of their leisure time watching television.

Source: American Time Use Survey

Friday, September 09, 2011

Not Enough Money

Nearly half--45 percent--of Americans say they are feeling "quite pinched" or "not able to make ends meet," according to the Economic Mobility Project.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

29 Million Can't Afford Medical Care

Twenty-nine million Americans delayed getting medical care during the past year because of cost. That number is bigger than the population of Texas--the nation's second largest state.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health Interview Survey, 2010

Busting More Myths about Renters

The number of renters with household incomes of $100,000 or more grew 10 percent between 2007 and 2009, to more than 2 million.

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Local Area Health Statistics

Want to know how many people in your city are fat, or go to the dentist, or drink alcohol? Find out by visiting the CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) City and County Data site, where a variety of health information is available by metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area. Most obese is Wauchula, Florida, where 42 percent of the population has a body mass index of 30 or higher (the definition of obese). In Key West, only 17 percent of residents are obese--one of the lowest levels in the nation.

Busting Myths about Renters

Renters are three times more likely to live in single-family homes (28%) than large buildings with 50 or more rental units (9%).

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey

What Men Drink

What men drink on an average day (number of cups)...

Water: 4.4
Regular soda: 1.9
Coffee: 1.6
Alcohol: 1.3
Tea: 0.9
Diet soda: 0.7
Milk: 0.5
Juice: 0.4

Note: According to the report, alcoholic beverage consumption is "mostly in the form of beer."
Source: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, What We Eat in America, Beverage Choices of U.S. Adults

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Why So Few Stories about Jobs ?

Calculated Risk asks why there was so little media coverage of jobs and unemployment on Labor Day. Usually I do not defend the media, but this time I will. The answer, I think, is that there is frustratingly little fresh data out there that tells the story. Sure, there are the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation reports, but so little has changed in those numbers over the months that there's nothing new or revealing about them. The most recent Monthly Labor Review is dedicated to an analysis of jobs and unemployment, but it is so academic and full of acronyms that it is nearly impossible to understand, let alone report.

The media are looking for the story, but finding a jumble of letters. It takes time for stories to be written, and unfortunately this story is still unfolding.

Depression by Age

Percent of Americans who are currently depressed, by age...

Total: 8.2%
18-24: 10.2%
25-34: 8.3%
35-44: 8.3%
45-54: 10.2%
55-plus: 6.1%

Source: CDC, Mental Illness Surveillance among Adults in the United States

Monday, September 05, 2011

Downward Mobility among Unemployed

Among workers who lost their job during the Great Recession, then found new full-time employment, percentage who had to accept lower pay: 52%.

Source: Source: Rutgers University, John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development, Out of Work and Losing Hope: The Misery and Bleak Expectations of American Workers

Sunday, September 04, 2011

Workplace Homicides

In 2010, 506 workers were murdered while on the job. The 81 percent majority were men, 79 percent were shot, and the 26 plurality were in sales.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Saturday, September 03, 2011

Many College Graduates Still Supported by Parents

Percentage of young adults who graduated from four-year colleges between 2006 and 2010 who receive financial support from their parents, by age...

For miscellaneous bills
22-25: 32%
26-29: 15%

For living situation
22-25: 29%
26-29: 17%

For health care
22-25: 21%
26-29: 7%

For food
22-25: 26%
26-29: 15%

For college loans
22-25: 12%
26-29: 9%

For car payment
22-25: 11%
26-29: 6%

Source: Rutgers University, John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development, Unfulfilled Expectations: Recent College Graduates Struggle in a Troubled Economy

Friday, September 02, 2011

Farm Income in 2010

Among households with farm operators...
Median household income earned from farming: $ -2,020
Median household income earned from off-farm sources: $50,385

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2011 Farm Income Forecast

Attitudes of the Unemployed

Percentage of the unemployed who want to improve the economy...
by cutting government spending to reduce the deficit: 67%
by boosting government spending on construction projects: 49%

Source: Source: Rutgers University, John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development, Out of Work and Losing Hope: The Misery and Bleak Expectations of American Workers

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Keeping Track of Marriages

The National Center for Health Statistics is no longer publishing monthly updates on the number of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in the United States. Birth and death counts will be updated only twice a year, marriages and divorces just once a year. Sign up for email update alerts here.

Ten Percent Decline in Starting Salaries

Median starting salary for graduates from four-year colleges in...

2006 and 2007 (pre-Great Recession): $30,000
2009 and 2010 (post-Great Recession): $27,000

Source: Rutgers University, John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development, Unfulfilled Expectations: Recent College Graduates Struggle in a Troubled Economy

Who is Online in 2011?

Seventy-eight percent of Americans aged 18 or older use the Internet, according to a 2011 survey by Pew Internet & American Life Project. By age, this is how many use the Internet...

Adults who use the Internet
Total: 78%
18-29: 95% 
30-49: 87%  
50-64: 74%  
65-plus: 42%  

Pew reports that 65 percent of Internet users are on a social networking site such as Facebook. By age, these are the percentages of Internet users who use social networking sites...

Internet users who use social networking sites
Total: 65%
18-29: 83%
30-49: 70%
50-64: 51%
65-plus: 33%

If you multiply the percentage who use the Internet by the percentage of Internet users who use social networking sites, then this is the percentage who use social networking sites by age...

Adults who use social networking sites
Total: 51%
18-29: 79% 
30-49: 61%
50-64: 38%
65-plus: 14%

As of May 2011, most adults under age 50 are on Facebook or another social networking site. Most adults aged 50 or older are not.

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, 65% of online adults use social networking sites

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Fewer State and Local Government Workers

The number of full-time workers employed by state and local governments fell by 203,321 between 2009 and 2010, according to the Census Bureau.

Source: Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll: 2010

Most Support Birth Control Coverage

Percent who support the new federal requirement that private health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control and other preventive services for their female patients, by age...

Total: 66%
18-29: 76%
30-49: 70%
50-64: 61%
65-plus: 51%

Source: Kaiser Health Tracking Poll--August 2011

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Three Housing Markets

With millions of Americans underwater on their mortgage, the nation's housing market has been split into three distinct segments: homeowners with mortgages or loans on their property--many of them underwater, renters, and homeowners who own their home free and clear.

According to the 2010 census, the 45 percent plurality of the nation's 117 million households are homeowners with a mortgage or loan on their property. Another 35 percent are renters, and 20 percent are homeowners who own their home free and clear. These segments vary in size by state.

Homeowners with mortgages In eight states, more than half of households are homeowners with mortgages or loans on their home. Utah ranks number one in this category, with 54 percent of the state's households headed by homeowners with a mortgage. The other states in which the majority of households are homeowners with mortgages are Maryland, Minnesota, Delaware, New Hampshire, Colorado, Indiana, and Virginia. The state with the smallest percentage of encumbered households is New York, at 36 percent.

Renters New York tops the list in the percentage of households that rent. The 47 percent plurality of households in New York are renters--most of them in the New York metropolitan area. The only other states in which renters outnumber the other two categories (homeowners with and homeowners without a mortgage) are California (44 percent) and Hawaii (42 percent). West Virginia has the fewest renter households, at 27 percent.

Homeowners free and clear West Virginia is the state with the largest percentage of homeowners who own their home free and clear, at 35 percent. Other states in which at least one in four households are homeowners without mortgages are: Mississippi, North Dakota, Louisiana, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, New Mexico, Alabama, and Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Iowa. Not exactly the nation's hot spots.

Here is the distribution of households by homeownership and mortgage status for all 50 states and the District of Columbia...

      with       no
      mort    mort      rent
U.S. total 45.4 19.7 34.9
Alabama 44.2 25.5 30.3
Alaska 43.4 19.7 36.9
Arizona 47.6 18.4 34.0
Arkansas 40.9 26.0 33.0
California 43.5 12.5 44.1
Colorado 50.9 14.6 34.5
Connecticut 49.7 17.8 32.5
Delaware 51.7 20.3 27.9
DC 33.8 8.2 58.0
Florida 45.1 22.2 32.6
Georgia 48.9 16.8 34.3
Hawaii 40.8 16.9 42.3
Idaho 49.5 20.4 30.1
Illinois 48.3 19.1 32.5
Indiana 50.3 19.5 30.1
Iowa 47.0 25.1 27.9
Kansas 45.2 22.5 32.2
Kentucky 44.0 24.7 31.3
Louisiana 39.8 27.5 32.8
Maine 47.4 23.9 28.7
Maryland 53.2 14.3 32.5
Massachusetts 46.2 16.1 37.7
Michigan 49.6 22.5 27.9
Minnesota 53.2 19.9 27.0
Mississippi 40.7 28.9 30.4
Missouri 47.1 21.7 31.2
Montana 41.8 26.2 32.0
Nebraska 44.6 22.6 32.8
Nevada 46.2 12.6 41.2
New Hamp 51.4 19.5 29.0
New Jersey 47.7 17.7 34.6
New Mexico 42.7 25.8 31.5
New York 35.7 17.6 46.7
N. Carolina 46.5 20.2 33.3
North Dakota 37.3 28.1 34.6
Ohio 47.3 20.3 32.4
Oklahoma 41.9 25.4 32.8
Oregon 44.6 17.5 37.8
Pennsylvania 45.2 24.4 30.4
Rhode Island 44.8 15.9 39.3
S. Carolina 45.8 23.5 30.7
South Dakota 41.5 26.6 31.9
Tennessee 44.9 23.3 31.8
Texas 41.8 21.9 36.3
Utah 53.8 16.7 29.6
Vermont 48.2 22.5 29.3
Virginia 50.2 17.0 32.8
Washington 47.5 16.4 36.1
West Virginia 38.4 35.0 26.6
Wisconsin 47.5 20.6 31.9
Wyoming 44.0 25.3 30.8

Source: 2010 Census

American Dream: College

Percentage of parents who want their children to get a college degree: 91%.

Source: Census Bureau, A Child's Day: 2009 (Selected Indicators of Child Well-Being)

Monday, August 29, 2011

The Underground Economy

The underground--or informal--economy, once thought to be a relic of the third world, may be growing in the first world thanks to globalization, according to a report by the Urban Institute.

The "informal" economy is defined as economic activity that operates outside the tax and regulatory systems. It includes black market and illegal activity as well as legal work for which income is not reported. How many people do you know who have a little business on the side? That's the informal economy.

In the United States, the informal economy may generate 5 to 10 percent of the GDP, notes the Urban Institute report. Some academics estimate that 11 to 20 percent of American workers operate at least partly in the informal economy--a proportion that has been growing along with the immigrant population.

Cell Phones and the Internet

Eighty-three percent of Americans aged 18 or older own a cell phone, according to Pew Internet & American Life Project. How they use their phone varies greatly by age, in part because smartphone ownership varies by age. Here is the percentage of all cell phone owners who access the Internet using their phone:

18-29: 64%
30-49: 54%
50-64: 26%
65-plus: 10%

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Americans and their Cell Phones

Sunday, August 28, 2011

More Interracial Marriage among Young

Percent of marriages that are interracial or Hispanic/non-Hispanic, by age of currently married women in their first marriage...

under 25: 13%
25 to 34: 11%
35 to 44: 10%
45 to 54: 7%
55 or older: 4%

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2009

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Air Conditioning by Region

Fully 87 percent of homes in the United States are now equipped with air conditioning--either central air or window units. Here is the percentage of households with air conditioning by region in 1980 and 2009:

2009 1980
Northeast 86 49
Midwest 91 58
South 98 74
West 65 36

Source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Air conditioning in nearly 100 million U.S. homes

Friday, August 26, 2011

Marriage and Divorce: The Numbers

You would think that a nation so heatedly debating who has a right to marry and who doesn't would keep very good records of who is marrying and who isn't. But you would be wrong. The federal government stopped collecting data from the states on the incidence of marriage and divorce in 1996. We have been flying blind since then and talking heads have filled the vacuum.

Until now. Yesterday, the Census Bureau released the first of what should be annual survey-based estimates of marriage and divorce from the American Community Survey. These releases will provide marriage, divorce, and widowhood rates for men and women by state (highest rate of divorce is in the South--by far; highest rate of marriage is in the West): and profile the demographic characteristics of people who are marrying or divorcing.

Who is marrying? Among the 2.2 million women who married in 2009, the largest share (38 percent) had a bachelor's degree or more education. The 39 percent plurality had a household income of $75,000 or more. The 69 percent majority were employed. Fifty-two percent were homeowners, and 63 percent lived in single-family homes. Bottom line: marriage has become an upscale event, with the educated and affluent most likely to tie the knot.

Source: Census Bureau: Marital Events of Americans: 2009

Thursday, August 25, 2011

2010 Census Finds Lower Homeownership Rates

The 2010 census found far lower homeownership rates in every age group than the Census Bureau had estimated for the same time period based on the Housing Vacancy Survey. The census count of homeowners and renters by age for the nation as a whole was released this morning. Take a look at how the census numbers compare with the survey estimates:

   census    survey       diff
Total 65.1 66.9 -1.8
<25 16.1 22.9 -6.8
25-34 42.0 44.4 -2.4
35-44 62.3 65.0 -2.7
45-54 71.5 73.5 -2.0
55-64 77.3 79.0 -1.7
65-plus 77.5 80.5 -3.0
65-74 80.2 82.0 -1.7
75-plus 74.5 78.9 -4.4

The census numbers are, of course, the far more accurate figures. The Housing Vacancy Survey methodology will have to be revised and once that is accomplished all homeownership estimates going forward will use census numbers as a base. The Mystery of the Young Homeowner has been solved--it was a methodological error!

Who Eats Out?

Most of us, every day. This is the percentage who eat (or drink) away from home on an average day by household income...

Total aged 20 or older: 67%
Less than $25,000: 53%
$25,000 to $74,999: 68%
$75,000 or more: 78%

Source: USDA, What We Eat in America, 2007-2008

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Women Judges

Percentage of presidential appointees to U.S. Courts of Appeals judgeships who are women, by president...

Johnson:  2.5%
Nixon:  0%
Ford:  0%
Carter:  19.6%
Reagan:  5.1%
Bush I:  18.9%
Clinton:  32.8%
Bush II:  25.4%
Obama:  33.3%

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Middle Income Households Cut Restaurant Spending

During the Great Recession, the average household cut its spending on food, especially eating out. A USDA analysis of who cut their spending the most reveals that middle-income households (in the middle 20 percent of the income distribution, with an average income of $46,012) cut their spending more than lower- or higher-income households.

Between 2006 and 2009, middle-income households cut their spending on groceries by 6 percent, after adjusting for inflation. They cut their spending on restaurant meals by a much larger 21 percent. No wonder restaurants were feeling the pain.

How did they manage to reduce their spending on both eating out and groceries? By buying lower-cost foods and shopping at lower-cost stores. A record 810 new private-label brands appeared on grocery store shelves in 2009, reports the USDA's Economic Research Service. Sales of packaged leafy greens fell relative to sales of less-expensive unpackaged greens. The market share captured by nontraditional food outlets (such as warehouse clubs and supercenters) also climbed, reaching 30 percent in 2009.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Spending Adjustments During Recessionary Times, Amber Waves, September 2011

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Stock Market Jitters

As if we need something else to worry about: Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets? (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).

Last Place Aversion

No one wants to be in last place. In fact, they so do not want to be in last place that those close to but not at the bottom will fight policies intended to improve the lives of the ones in last place, according to a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Explains a lot of the crazy.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Religious Identification

Percentage of Americans who identify themselves as Protestant, by age...

18 to 44: 38%
45 to 64: 53%
65-plus: 59%

Source: General Social Survey

Cash in a Pinch

Could you come up with $2,000 within 30 days to pay an unexpected bill? Most Americans could not do this. Yet financial shocks of this size are not uncommon.

According to a study by the Center for Financial Security at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, people are reluctant to save for a rainy day because they think they will have more "financial slack" in the future. In other words, they think it will be easier in the future to come up with cash for an emergency, so they do not save ahead. This is an illusion, say psychologists. In the future, your finances will feel just as tight as they do today.

Source: Center for Financial Security, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Coming Up with Cash in a Pinch: Emergency Savings and Its Alternatives

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Debt of the Foreclosed

According to a study by the Federal Reserve Board, individuals who have had foreclosure proceedings begin against them had the following characteristics...

Average age: 42
Median credit score: 562
Median mortgage balance: $152,901
Median credit card balance: $3,498
Median auto loan balance: $15,728

Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Post-Foreclosure Experience of U.S. Households, Raven Molloy and Hui Shan, 2011-32

Saturday, August 20, 2011

What Happens After Foreclosure?

A new study by the Federal Reserve Board examines what happens to households after a foreclosure. Based on credit report data from the FRBNY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel--a nationally representative 5 percent random sample of Americans with credit files and their household members--the study tracked the experiences of individuals following the start of a foreclosure. The study compared the experiences of those with a foreclosure (the Foreclosed) with a demographically similar group of individuals who did not experience a foreclosure (the Comparables).
  • Mobility: 23 percent of the Foreclosed moved within a year versus 12 percent of Comparables.
  • Household size. About one-third of the Foreclosed saw their household size increase and another one-third saw their household size shrink after foreclosure.
  • Household composition. Only 18 percent of the Foreclosed were living with the same people two years later versus 47 percent of Comparables. Twelve percent of the Foreclosed had moved in with an adult 20 or more years older (likely a parent). Among Comparables, only 5 percent were living with an older adult two years later.
  • Housing type. A substantial 76 percent of the Foreclosed were living in a single-family house two years later versus 93 percent of Comparables. Only 22 percent of the Foreclosed had moved into a multi-family unit, but this was much greater than the 3 percent of Comparables who had moved into an apartment building.
The study's authors conclude that while there are some adverse affects of foreclosure, most who experience the start of a foreclosure are still in the same house two years later. Apparently, many foreclosures are resolved through refinancing or other means. Most of the Foreclosed who move end up in equivalent housing--a single family home in a similar neighborhood.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Post-Foreclosure Experience of U.S. Households, Raven Molloy and Hui Shan, 2011-32

Friday, August 19, 2011

Another Way to Look at American Workers

Among America's 139 million workers, number whose primary job duty is to...

Manage: 15 million
Count: 6 million
Think: 8 million
Talk: 4 million
Teach: 9 million
Create: 3 million
Heal: 11 million
Protect: 3 million
Cook: 8 million
Clean: 5 million
Help: 5 million
Sell: 15 million
Organize: 18 million
Grow: 1 million
Build: 7 million
Fix: 5 million
Make: 8 million
Move: 8 million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employed Persons by Occupation

Thursday, August 18, 2011

The Life and Death of Early Retirement

When did early retirement begin? According to a new brief by Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, it began a decade or so after the Civil War. "Beginning around 1880, the percentage of the older male population at work began to decline sharply," she says. Behind the decline were old-age pensions for Civil War veterans.

"The next big decline in the work rates of older men occurred after World War II," she writes, primarily because Social Security benefits began in 1940. Generous employer pensions followed, driven in part by powerful unions. Medicare was introduced in 1965, and Social Security was indexed to inflation in the early 1970s. The rest is history.

A short history. The trend toward early retirement lasted only until the mid-1980s. That's when the age of retirement reversed direction for reasons she details in the brief. The average retirement age among men (meaning, the age at which their labor force participation rate drops below 50 percent) has increased from 62 to 64 over the past two decades.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, What is the Average Retirement Age?

$1 in Every $10 Is Spent Here

For the average family, there are two items in the budget over which they have little control and which also account for a large share of household spending: gasoline and health care.  

In 2008, when gas prices climbed above $4 per gallon, the average household devoted more than 5 percent of its spending to fueling its cars. The figure fell back to 4 percent in 2009 as gas prices declined. Health care absorbs 6 percent of the household budget. Together, gasoline and health care control $1 of every $10 spent by the average household--and that's in a good year, without a spike in gas prices or a health care emergency.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Public Schools--Good or Bad?

It depends. If you survey a nationally representative sample of the population and ask about the quality of public schools in the nation as a whole, you get one answer. If you ask parents about the public school their child attends, you get another answer, according to decades of polling done by PDK/Gallup.

What grade would you give the public schools nationally, and what grade would you give the school your oldest child attends? The 2011 poll released today finds that only 17 percent of the public would give the nation's schools a grade of A or B. But fully 79 percent of parents would give their child's school an A or B. Conversely, the 81 percent majority of the public would give the nation's schools a grade of C, D, or F. But only 21 percent of parents would give their child's school a grade of C, D, or F.

This attitudinal gap between the national and the local shows up in surveys on a variety of topics. It is a quirk of human nature--the tendency to be fearful and judgmental toward the unknown. Maybe the nation's public schools aren't as bad as you think, and maybe a lot of other things aren't as bad either.

Source: 43rd Annual PDK/Gallup Poll

Fighting for the Status Quo

I've posted this information before, but it is worth posting again as it becomes increasingly obvious that the the United States is locked in a battle between the older generations who want to protect the pre-Internet status quo and the younger generations who live in the post-Internet reality.

Percentage of Americans who believe the Constitution should be interpreted based on its meaning in current times, by age:

18-29: 62%
30-49: 54%
50-64: 44%
65-plus: 35%

Source: Pew Research Center, Ideological Chasm Over Interpreting Constitution

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Is the United States Still a Good Bet?

A recent article in the Los Angeles Times noted that U.S. companies "are beginning to give up on the American consumer as a source of future growth." Are businesses right to give up on us? Is the United States still a good bet? Let's look at the pros and cons from a demographic perspective.

NO. The United States is so yesterday.
1. Our population growth is slowing. For the next few decades, most of the increase will be among people aged 65 or older.
2. A new baby bust means there is little prospect for renewed growth in the United States for the foreseeable future.
3. Household spending peaked in 2006 and has fallen 5 percent since then, after adjusting for inflation. This decline is likely to continue as households pay down their debt and adjust to lower incomes.

It sure looks hopeless. But wait, there's more...

YES. The United States is a good bet for tomorrow.
1. There are nearly 312 million Americans, making us the third largest country in the world. Not to mention the fact that we are also the richest--still.
2. There is plenty of potential growth in the United States consumer market. To tap into it requires imagination and leadership, however. Although household spending peaked in 2006, Americans have been spending lavishly since then on a range of products and services. Average household spending on pets climbed 61 percent between 2006 and 2009, after adjusting for inflation. Spending on lighting fixtures climbed 59 percent as households replaced their incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescents. Internet service spending rose 35 percent, cell phone service spending 28 percent, telephone hardware spending 29 percent, video game spending 47 percent--all during the darkest days of the Great Recession. Household spending patterns are changing, creating opportunity for forward-looking companies.
3. This too shall pass. Our current problems are temporary, a convulsion of the economy--and politics--caused by the Internet.

So is it Yes or No? For the next few decades, there is only one obstacle that stands in the way of Yes: the older generations. This is blasphemy, I know. For years we have been told how great the older generations are. They were great in their day, but that day is over, brought to a close by the Internet revolution. Yet we remain in their grip. The U.S. population is older today than ever before, and growing older by the day. Fifty-nine percent of household wealth is controlled by householders aged 55 or older--a record high and certain to climb as the entire baby-boom generation fills the older age groups.  

Because older Americans control the money, they also control the politics. The politicians are doing their bidding by protecting the status quo--the pre-Internet world in which boomers and older generations grew up. This explains our political paralysis and why we are arguing over issues long ago settled in the minds of younger adults. Politically, we are trapped in the old economy, an economy where airline passengers are still being instructed on how to fasten their seat belts, where politicians try to keep us from switching to more efficient light bulbs, and where health insurance coverage for birth control is still controversial. We are trapped in the old economy because the generations that are in control the purse strings cannot conceive of the radical new world of opportunity created by the Internet.

Just because older generations are saying No doesn't mean you can't say Yes. The recipe for growth in the United States is threefold: hire the young, follow the Internet, and use your imagination.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of clothing purchased in the United States that was manufactured abroad: 97%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Price Topics: The Impact of Soaring Cotton Prices on Consumer Apparel Prices

Are Older Americans Willing to Spend?

Most businesses assume that older Americans are not big spenders, directing their marketing efforts at younger adults. Since the 65+ age group is now the fastest growing segment of the population, this suggests that businesses must look elsewhere to find eager customers. But do older Americans deserve their penny-pincher reputation?

At the household level, the spending differences are stark. The average household spent $49,067 in 2009 compared with the $37,562 spent by householders aged 65 or older, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. But this is an apples to oranges comparison because the average household is larger than those headed by people aged 65 or older (2.5 versus 1.7 people). On a per capita basis, the differences disappear. In fact, on a per capita basis, householders aged 65 or older spend more than average--$22,095 versus $19,627. Older Americans do not devote all their dollars to health care either. Take a look at the average annual per capita spending of the average household compared to householders aged 65 or older:


 
   average         65+        index
Groceries  $1,501  $1,895 126
Restaurants  1,048  988 94
Alcohol  174  172 99
Housing  6,758  7,762 115
Women clothes  224  251 112
Footwear  129  131 102
Vehicles  1,063  1,095 103
Health  1,250  2,851 228
Entertainment  1,077  1,213 113
Personal care  238  312 131

On a per capita basis, householders aged 65 or older spend more than average or close to the average on most categories of goods and services--including items often associated with youth such as entertainment and women's clothes. Not only are they willing to spend, but the 65+ age group is economically more stable than younger adults, many with guaranteed incomes pegged to inflation. So the fact that the 65+ age group is now the fastest growing segment of the population may be good news for business.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Who Wants Population Decline?

"The preference for population decline is most clear at the global levels, but as soon as the phenomenon of decline moves closer to home, the preference becomes less pronounced and switches to the status quo."
Population size preferences are subject to the NIMBY (Not-In-My-Backyard) syndrome, according to a new study. The average person favors population decline globally, fewer support it nationally, and most do not want to see their local population decline.

Source: "Who fears and who welcomes population decline?" Demographic Research, August 2011

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Retail Sales vs Household Spending

The good news is that retail sales increased in July, up 0.5 percent from June and up 8.5 percent from July 2010. The bad news is that retail sales are not the same as household spending and can mislead trend trackers.

Retail sales are an aggregate, and generally increase with the population. This explains why retail sales have never been higher. Because retail sales data are released monthly, they often make headlines. A rise in retail sales can give false hope to those looking for a turnaround in the economy.  

Household spending is the better measure of economic wellbeing, but household spending data are released only once a year rather than every month. Average household spending trends are not affected by population growth. They reveal how actual families are faring, the items on which they are spending more and the items on which they are cutting back. Average household spending fell 5 percent between the peak spending year of 2006 and 2009, after adjusting for inflation. The 2010 household spending figures will be released next month.

Friday, August 12, 2011

The Childless Generation

Here's something interesting: In a study of the childbearing patterns of three cohorts of women--born in 1910, 1935, and 1960--the women born in 1910 were most likely to be childless at age 50, according to the National Center for Health Statistics (see Childbearing Differences among Three Generations of Women).

Among women born in 1910, one in five was childless at age 50 (19.7 percent). Among women born in 1960--members of the baby-boom generation, which earned a reputation for delaying childbearing or forgoing parenthood altogether--a smaller 15.6 percent were childless at age 50. Only 11.4 percent of women born in 1935 were childless at age 50.

So what gives with the women of 1910? The Great Depression. They entered their childbearing years just as the Depression began in 1929, and apparently many never found the economic stability in which to have children and raise a family.

What does this say about today's young women, who are reaching childbearing age in the midst of the Great Recession? "The cohort moved into its key childbearing years during a significant recession," says the National Center for Health Statistics. Marriage and fertility rates have been falling since 2007. Will today's young women be the next "childless" generation?

Thursday, August 11, 2011

College Not an Animal House

Facts aren't as much fun as fantasy. Just as Hollywood portrays cigarette smoking to be more upscale and popular than it really is, it also shows college kids to be much more promiscuous than they really are. In fact, 70 percent of 20-to-24-year-old men and 75 percent of 20-to-24-year-old women have had only one opposite-sex partner in the past year (50 and 58 percent, respectively) or none at all (20 and 17 percent, respectively).

Over a lifetime, college-educated men and women have fewer sex partners than the average man or woman. Among men under age 45, those with a bachelor's degree have had 4.8 opposite-sex partners in their lifetime versus 5.1 partners for the average man. Among women under age 45, the college-educated have had 2.9 opposite-sex partners in their lifetime versus 3.2 partners for the average woman.

Source: National Survey of Family Growth

Time to Update this Survey

The Census Bureau has been probing the daily life of children in occasional surveys that began in the early 1990s--and it shows. One of the areas examined in the first survey and repeated in every survey since is television rules--whether parents restrict the television viewing of their children. A lot has happened technologically since the early 1990s, but the survey, unfortunately, does not ask about the even bigger issues for parents--computers, video games, and cell phones. Time for an update.

Source: Census Bureau, A Child's Day: 2009 (Selected Indicators of Child Well-Being)

Yeah, right

When asked about the difficulties of raising children, the 54 percent majority of parents say they never feel angry with their child.

Source: Census Bureau, A Child's Day: 2009 (Selected Indicators of Child Well-Being)

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Apple vs Exxon Mobil: Is There a Message Here?

Yes.

Life Expectancy Varies by Occupation

A study of French workers reveals the toll manual labor takes on life expectancy overall and healthy life expectancy in particular...

Years of life remaining for male workers at age 50 by occupation...
Managers and professionals: 32.2 years
Manual laborers: 27.4 years

Years of healthy life remaining for male workers at age 50 by occupation...
Managers and professionals: 22.8 years
Manual laborers: 13.7 years

Source: Occupational inequalities in health expectancies in France in the early 2000s: Unequal chances of reaching and living retirement in good health, Demographic Research, August 2011

Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Unemployment and Voter Turnout

The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the voter turnout for state and congressional races, according to a new NBER study. Because the unemployed have more leisure time than the employed, they are more informed about state and local candidates and more likely to vote. Interestingly, the unemployment rate does not affect the percentage who vote for president, say the study's authors, because presidential campaign information is ubiquitous (to put it mildly).

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 17270, $5

The Earnings Overlap

"In a surprising number of cases, people with less educational attainment earn more than those with more."
Percent of people with some college, no degree who earn more than those with...
Associate's degree: 41.9%
Bachelor's degree: 23.1%
Master's degree: 15.9%
Doctoral degree: 8.6%
Professional degree: 4.8%

Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, The College Payoff: Education, Occupations, Lifetime Earnings

Monday, August 08, 2011

Jumping Ship

American corporations long ago abandoned American workers. Now they are abandoning American consumers as well. An article in the Los Angeles Times says U.S. companies "are beginning to give up on the American consumer as a source of future growth."

I'm OK, But You're Not Syndrome

Percentage who say they have their finances under control: 68%.
Percentage who believe other people have their finances under control: 37%.

Source: Economic Mobility Project, 2011 Poll

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Who Works at Midnight?

Percent of the employed who are on the job at midnight, by occupation...
(shown are the occupations in which 5% or more of the employed are at work at midnight)

Protective service: 16%
Production: 11%
Transportation and material moving: 10%
Healthcare support: 8%
Health care practitioner: 8%
Building and grounds cleaning: 6%
Food preparation and serving: 6%
Computer and mathematical: 5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Waiting for The Dough

It seems like we've been waiting forever for an update of the economic status of American households, making do with 2009 numbers long past their usefulness. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release the 2010 data on September 13--several weeks later than has been the custom. These numbers will provide us with the official income statistics for households and families, men and women.

We have a pretty good idea of what the numbers will show, but still it would be nice to have some facts to back up our extrapolations. Here's what we know right now...

Between 2000 and 2009, median household income fell 5 percent--to $49,777, after adjusting for inflation. Expect to see the decline deepen with the 2010 numbers, but not as much as you might expect for two reasons: the baby-boom generation is in the peak-earning age groups, boosting the median; and people aged 55 or older are remaining in the labor force longer, boosting the median. Between 2000 and 2009, the median income of households headed by 55-to-64-year-olds climbed 2 percent, and that of households headed by people aged 65 or older climbed 9 percent. In harsh contrast, the median income of households headed by people under age 55 fell by a substantial 9 to 11 percent.

According to an Economic Mobility Project poll, taken in March, the 43 percent plurality of Americans say their income was lower in 2010 than in 2007. Only 18 percent say their income was higher. So the 2010 income statistics are likely to confirm what we already know--it's grim out there.

Friday, August 05, 2011

Eleven Jobs

Average number of jobs Americans have held by age 45: 11.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979

Unemployment Rising for Older Men

Unemployment rate of men aged 62 to 64...

July 2011: 8.2%
July 2010: 7.2%
July 2009: 6.3%
July 2008: 4.9%
July 2007: 2.9%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Retrieval Tool

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Making Less

Percent distribution of Americans by income in 2010 compared to 2007...

Less: 43%
Same: 39%
More: 18%

Source: Economic Mobility Project, 2011 Poll

Cars in New York

Percentage of households in the New York metropolitan area
without a car, truck, or van: 40%.

Source: American Housing Survey for the New York Metropolitan Area: 2009

Grocery Spending

Amount the average household spends on groceries each week: $87.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic, unpublished data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

State Extremes: Breastfeeding

Three out of four newborns in the United States are breastfed. The figure ranges from 91 percent in Oregon to 49 percent in Louisiana.

Source; CDC, Breastfeeding Report Card--United States, 2011

No Doctor Visits

Percentage of the uninsured who did not go to the doctor in the past year: 57%.

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Characteristics of Those Without Any Ambulatory Care Visits in 2008: Estimates for the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Adult Population

Uninsured for Two Years

One in eight Americans under age 65 did not have health insurance for the entire two-year period from 2008 through 2009. These are the percentages by age...

Under age 18: 4.8%
Aged 18-24: 18.9%
Aged 25-29: 21.0%
Aged 30-34: 15.5%
Aged 35-54: 14.4%
Aged 55-64: 10.6%

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, The Long-Term Uninsured in America, 2006-2009 (Selected Intervals): Estimates for the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population Under Age 65

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Did the Housing Boom Boost Spending?

Short answer: yes. According to research by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, every 10 percent increase in housing prices during the boom boosted household spending on non-durables (which they define as food and drink, dining out, clothing and apparel, hobbies and leisure, entertainment, travel, and gasoline) by 4 percent. The research is based on an examination of 2001 through 2009 data from the Health and Retirement Study--a nationally representative longitudinal panel of householders aged 51 or older.

The researchers also found that as housing prices declined, there was no compensating decline in spending--at least through 2009. "Price declines do not have a statistically significant effect on spending," they report.

My take: Americans will go through all kinds of contortions to maintain their lifestyle. But the day of reckoning will come.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Did the Housing Boom Increase Household Spending?

Odd Jobs

What percentage of workers work nonstandard hours--primarily outside the 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. Monday through Friday time period? Cross-sectional studies suggest that about 20 percent of workers have nonstandard hours at any one time. But a new analysis of longitudinal data published in the Monthly Labor Review shows that most workers have had a job with nonstandard hours over their work life.

Examining data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, which tracked a nationally representative sample of 14-to-22-year-olds and followed them for more than two decades (through 2004), researchers Harriet B. Presser and Brian W. Ward discovered that 89 percent of workers had worked at a job with nonstandard hours by the time they reached age 40.

Monday, August 01, 2011

Income Data Release Schedule

The Census Bureau will release 2010 national estimates of income, poverty, and health insurance from the Current Population Survey on September 13, 2011.

The Census Bureau will release 2010 state and local estimates of income and poverty from the 2010 American Community Survey on September 22, 2011.

High Costs for Many Renters

Percentage of renters who spend at least 50 percent of their monthly income on housing: 32%.

Source: American Housing Survey

Update: Mystery of the Young Homeowners

Mystery still not solved.

As of the second quarter of 2011, a hefty 21.9 percent of householders under age 25 owned a home. Sure, this figure has fallen since it reached a peak of 25.7 percent in 2005. But it is still far above the 14.8 percent of 1993. Since rates peaked, the homeownership rate of this age group has fallen less than that of any other age group except householders aged 65 or older.

What gives? Because of their youth, most homeowners under age 25 had to have bought their home recently--probably since the housing bubble burst. Where is the money coming from? Could it be affluent parents buying condos for their kids in college?