Student Loans: "Worse than We Thought"

"Worse than we thought" — those chilling words are in the title of a Brookings report on student loan debt and repayment. Analyzing data from the Department of Education's Beginning Postsecondary Student survey, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of first-time college students, Brookings' senior fellow Judith Scott-Clayton has produced "the most comprehensive assessment yet of student debt and default from the moment students first enter college to when they are repaying loans up to 20 years later." Her analysis of the 1996 and 2004 college-entry cohorts lays bare so much bad news...

• For the 2004 cohort, "nearly 40 percent may default on their student loans by 2023."
• Behind the sky-high level of default are for-profit schools. For the 2004 cohort, the 12-year default rate for students who ever attended a for-profit school was 43 percent. For those who never attended a for-profit, the default rate was 11 percent.
• "Debt and default among black or African-American college students is at crisis levels." Among Blacks in the 2004 entry cohort who ever attended a for-profit school, the 12-year default rate was 58 percent. 

There's much more bad news in the 10-page report, which concludes: "The results provide support for robust efforts to regulate the for-profit sector, to improve degree attainment and promote income-contingent loan repayment options for all students, and to more fully address the particular challenges faced by college students of color."

Source: The Brookings Institution, The Looming Student Loan Default Crisis is Worse than We Thought

Counties Without Businesses

Some of the nation's 3,142 counties lack certain essential businesses. These "business deserts" were tallied recently by the Census Bureau's Andrew W. Hait, using data from the bureau's 2015 County Business Patterns...

Number of counties lacking employer establishments
Gas stations: 22
Commercial banks: 37
Religious organizations: 42
Grocery stores: 48
Offices of lawyers: 215
Child care services: 287
Dentist's offices: 305
Doctor's offices: 344
Hardware stores: 489
Beauty salons: 802
Drinking places: 926
Movie theaters: 1,586

While counties may have no employer establishments, Hait notes, their populations may be served by nonemployers—independent contractors and sole proprietors. He cites the example of child care service. While 2,855 counties in the U.S. have at least one employer child care service, a larger 3,117 have nonemployer (home-based) child care services.

Source: Census Bureau, Filling the Void in Counties Lacking Key Businesses

7% of Households Do Not Have a Bank Account. Why?

Seven percent of U.S. households are "unbanked," meaning they have no bank or credit union account. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examined the geography of the unbanked to determine the reason why—in particular, they wanted to know whether households lack bank accounts because they live in a "banking desert." Similar to food deserts (neighborhoods without grocery stores), banking deserts are neighborhoods without physical banks. In the study, the researchers defined a neighborhood as a census tract and the area within 10 miles of the census tract's center.

Several interesting findings emerged from the study. 1) Most banking deserts are in actual deserts. "Our map of U.S. banking deserts reveals that most are not in urban areas, where financial exclusion may be endemic, but in actual deserts—largely in the sparsely populated rural West," explain the researchers. 2) There is no correlation between the percentage of a state's population that lives in a banking desert and the share of the population that is unbanked. The physical location of banks, then, does not explain the unbanked. The results of a 2015 FDIC survey, cited by the researchers, also suggests physical location of banks has little to do with the unbanked. In the survey, the unbanked were asked why they did not have a bank account. Only 2 percent said it was because of "inconvenient location." More important reasons were "not enough money," "don't trust banks," and "account fees too high."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, The 'Banking Desert' Mirage

Growing Trouble for Workers with Little Education

"All occupations are employing workers with more formal education," reports the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and this is bad news for less-educated Americans. The Fed study examines the striking contrast between the education of workers by occupation today with the education of workers in 1950...

• Professional and technical workers: Only half had a college degree in 1950. Today, 70 percent are college graduates. One in ten professional/technical workers in 1950 did not have a high school diploma. Today the figure is close to zero. The "empiricist professional" of 1950 has all but disappeared, say the researchers. 
• Managers: In 1950, more than three out of four had no schooling beyond high school, and many did not even have a high school diploma. Today, three out of four have at least some college education, and 46 percent have a college degree. 
• Sales, clerical, craftsmen, and service workers: The great majority—close to 80 percent or above—had no more than a high school diploma in 1950. Today, more than half of sales and clerical workers have at least some college as do about 40 percent of craftsmen and service workers.
• Operative workers (machine operators), farmers, and laborers: Virtually no operative workers had a college degree in 1950. Today, 30 percent are college graduates. The figures are similar for farmers and laborers. 

"Needless to say, these changes have led to additional challenges for some groups of workers," concludes the report. "Those with lower levels of education may be unable to find jobs in occupations that their parents held with much less formal schooling."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Shifting Times—The Evolution of the American Workplace

Rural Women Have Had More Children

Among women aged 18 to 44, those in rural areas have had more children than their urban counterparts, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—1.56 children per rural woman and 1.28 children per urban woman, on average. For the NCHS study, urban was defined as living in a metropolitan area and rural as living in a nonmetropolitan area. Here are the urban-rural comparisons by number of births...

Women aged 18-to-44 with no births
Urban: 42%
Rural: 30%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 1 birth
Urban: 18%
Rural: 19%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 2 births
Urban: 21%
Rural: 26%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 3 or more births
Urban: 19%
Rural: 25%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Urban and Rural Variation in Fertility-related Behavior among U.S. Women, 2011–2015

Is Racism Receding?

Is racism receding in younger generations? That's one of the issues probed by PRRI and MTV in a nationally representative survey of 15-to-24-year-olds. Survey respondents were asked how much they agreed with the statement: "Racism is more of a problem for other generations than it is for my generation." The 55 percent majority of 15-to-24-year-olds disagreed, believing that racism is as big a problem for them as it is for older Americans. But a substantial 45 percent agreed, believing that racism is receding. Young White men are most likely to think racism is less of a problem in their generation, young Blacks are least likely to think so...

Racism is more of a problem for other generations (percent of 15-to-24-year-olds who agree)
White men: 55%
Hispanics: 45%
White women: 41%
Asians: 35%
Blacks: 34%

Source: MTV and PRRI, Diversity, Division, Discrimination: The State of Young America

When Will Minorities Become the Majority of Voters?

Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities are projected to outnumber non-Hispanic Whites beginning in 2044, according to Census Bureau population projections. But when will minorities outnumber non-Hispanic Whites among voters? A Demo Memo analysis shows the minority-majority election will not occur in the time frame of the Census Bureau's population projections, which extend to 2060.

In the 2016 presidential election, non-Hispanic Whites accounted for an outsized 73 percent of voters, more than their 64 percent of the voting-age population. Behind their larger share of voters is the higher propensity of non-Hispanic Whites to vote. In 2016, nearly two-thirds of non-Hispanic White citizens cast a ballot (65 percent) versus 59 percent of Black, 50 percent of Asian, and 48 percent of Hispanic citizens.

Although non-Hispanic Whites will continue to dominate presidential-election voters in the decades ahead, their power will shrink considerably by 2060. Here is the projected non-Hispanic White share of voters in every presidential election from 2016 to 2060...

Non-Hispanic White share of voters in presidential elections
2016: 73%
2020: 71%
2024: 69%
2028: 67%
2032: 65%
2036: 63%
2040: 61%
2044: 59%
2048: 57%
2052: 55%
2056: 54%
2060: 52%

At this rate of decline, minorities may become the majority of voters in the presidential election of 2064 and most certainly in 2068.

Note: Calculations based on voting rate of citizens in 2016 by race and Hispanic origin applied to Census Bureau population projections by race and Hispanic origin. Population projections adjusted for citizenship status by race and Hispanic origin in 2016.

Quantifying the Money Pit

In the months before and after buying a house, average household spending rises by $3,700 as owners repair, renovate, and decorate their new home, according to an NBER working paper.

Examining Consumer Expenditure Survey and building permit data for the 2001 to 2013 time period, the researchers find the increased spending entirely devoted to household goods and home improvements. Other categories of spending are not affected. The added spending peaks in the first quarter after a home purchase.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effects of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment, Working Paper 23570 ($5)

37% Say Football is Favorite Sport to Watch

Football is still America's favorite spectator sport, according to a Gallup survey. The 37 percent who say football is their favorite sport is below the peak of 43 percent in 2006 and 2007, but still far above any other sport. Basketball is number two, the favorite of just 11 percent of the public. Baseball is third (9 percent), and soccer is fourth (7 percent). Soccer is now more popular than auto racing (2 percent).

Men are more likely than women to name football as their favorite sport, but for both men and women football is by far the favorite...

Football is favorite sport to watch

Men: 42%

Women: 32%

Fifteen percent of Americans say they don't have a favorite sport, nearly double the 8 percent of 2000. 

Source: Gallup, Football Still Americans' Favorite Sport to Watch

Cold Is A Bigger Killer

Among weather-related deaths, cold is a bigger killer than heat, flood, storm, or lightning, according to an analysis by the CDC. In the 2006–2010 time period, cold-weather deaths accounted for 62 percent of the 10,649 weather-related deaths in the United States.

During the time period under analysis, the cold-related death rate was 4.2 deaths per million population, the CDC reports. The rate was below average among people under age 45. It was slightly above average among those aged 45 to 74. The death rate climbs steeply in the 75-plus age groups. The rate was nearly four times the average among people aged 75 to 84 (15.5) and more than nine times the average among those aged 85 or older (39.6).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Statistics Reports, Deaths Attributed to Heat, Cold, and Other Weather Events in the United States, 2006–2010

Cell-Phone Only Households, January–June 2017

The 52.5 percent majority of the nation's households have cell phones and no landline phone, according to the latest National Center for Health Statistics report. Among adults, 52 percent live in a wireless-only household. Among children, an even larger 62 percent are in a wireless-only household. Here is the percentage of adults in wireless-only households by age...

Percent in wireless-only household
Aged 18 to 24: 64%
Aged 25 to 29: 73%
Aged 30 to 34: 74%
Aged 35 to 44: 64%
Aged 45 to 64: 47%
Aged 65-plus: 24%

Forty percent of households have both a landline phone and cell phones, and just 6 percent have only a landline phone.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January–June 2017

Obesity by Income and Education, 2011–14

Obesity varies somewhat by income and education, finds the CDC. Analyzing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which measures the heights and weights of a nationally representative sample of Americans aged 20 or older, the CDC determined the prevalence of obesity by household income relative to federal poverty level and by education.

Overall, 36 percent of Americans aged 20 or older were found to be obese in the 2011–14 survey round. Obesity is defined as a body mass index of 30 kg/m² or higher. Here are the results by income and education.

Percent obese by household income, 2011–14
39% of those with incomes ≤130% of poverty level
41% of those with incomes from 130% to ≤350% of poverty level
31% of those with incomes ≥350% of poverty level

Percent obese by educational attainment, 2011–14
40% of those with a high school diploma or less education
41% of those with at least some college experience
28% of college graduates

Source: CDC, Prevalence of Obesity among Adults, by Household Income and Education—United States, 2011–2014

Metros with the Lowest Rates of Homeownership

Among the nation's 75 largest metropolitan areas, these are the 10 with the lowest rate of homeownership in 2016, according to the Census Bureau...

1. 47.1% in Los Angeles, CA
2. 49.9% in San Jose, CA
3. 50.4% in New York, NY
4. 51.3% in Las Vegas, NV
5. 53.3% in San Diego, CA
6. 55.8% in San Francisco, CA
7. 56.0% in Tucson, AZ
8. 56.0% in Fresno, CA
9. 56.5% in Austin, TX
10. 57.5% in Providence, RI

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Why Small Town America Is in Decline

One year ago, Demo Memo posted a list of 10 demographic questions that could be answered by data released in 2017. Some of the 10 questions were answered, such as "Are Americans getting richer? The answer is yes, according to the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances. But the question, "What will save small town and rural America?" was not answered. Instead, 2017 only added to the accumulating evidence of small town ruin, from greater health problems to the disappearance of the American Dream. Not only are we at a loss to solve small town problems, but we don't even know what's causing them.

Until now: In a year-end opinion piece, The Gambler's Ruin of Small Cities, economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman provides a compelling explanation for small town woes. He compares the plight of small towns to gamblers betting with pennies. The gambler who starts out with the smallest number of pennies is the one most likely to end up bankrupt. This is what's known as the "gambler's ruin." Small towns today have few pennies (economic opportunities) to play with and so eventually face gambler's ruin. "It makes sense to think of urban destinies as a random process of wins and losses in which small cities face a relatively high likelihood of experiencing gambler's ruin," explains Krugman.

Unfortunately, neither Krugman nor anyone else has a way to save small towns from gambler's ruin. It's all in the numbers. As Krugman explains: "For generations we have lived in an economy in which smaller cities have nothing going for them except historical luck, which eventually runs out."

Metros with the Highest Rates of Homeownership, 2016

Among the nation's 75 largest metropolitan areas, these are the 10 with the highest rates of homeownership in 2016, according to the Census Bureau...

1. 76.2% in Grand Rapids, MI
2. 74.9% in Akron, OH
3. 73.4% in Sarasota, FL
4. 72.2% in Pittsburgh, PA
5. 71.6% in Detroit, MI
6. 69.2% in Omaha, NE
7. 69.2% in Salt Lake City, UT
8. 69.1% in Minneapolis, MN
9. 68.9% in Allentown, PA
10. 68.7% in Birmingham, AL

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

How Important Are Foreign-Born Workers to IT?

Foreign-born workers are a large share of the information technology (IT) labor force in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics examines just how large, particularly in what it calls "creative IT professions," which it defines as computer scientists and systems analysts, network systems analysts, web developers, computer programmers, software developers, and computer hardware engineers. The BLS analysis begins with the big picture—the foreign-born share of the labor force as a whole, then focuses on the foreign-born share of all IT jobs, and finally on the foreign-born share of creative IT jobs. Here are the findings...

• Foreign-born workers accounted for 17 percent of the total U.S. labor force in 2014 (up from 7 percent in 1980). 
• Foreign-born workers accounted for 24 percent of workers in all IT occupations in 2014 (up from 7 percent in 1980). 
• Foreign-born workers accounted for 33 percent of workers in creative IT occupations (up from 8 percent in 1980).

The BLS analysis goes even deeper, drilling down to the foreign-born share of workers in creative IT occupations in what it calls "innovation-leading metropolitan areas," defined as the five metros with the most patents in computer software and hardware—San Jose, Seattle, Austin, Portland (Oregon); and Raleigh. In these metros, fully 53 percent of workers in creative IT jobs are foreign-born (up from 11 percent in 1980). In Silicon Valley specifically, the foreign-born share is an enormous 71 percent (up from 15 percent in 1980).

The dominance of foreign-born workers in Silicon Valley might explain the perception that American technological success is dependent on the foreign-born, suggests the BLS report. "Outside the United States, there is a strong perception that fortunes of many successful U.S. companies rest almost exclusively on foreign-born labor, with little credit given to the native-born labor force," says the report. But the facts say otherwise. Yes, foreign-born workers are a big part of the IT labor force, but the perception that they dominate the labor force may be "mostly due to Silicon Valley trends."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trends among Native- and Foreign-Origin Workers in U.S. Computer Industries

Residents of Rural Areas Can Be Hard to Count

The rural population has been shrinking since 2010. This makes it all the more important that the 2020 census counts every rural resident. Areas with shrinking populations not only lose political representation, but also funding for important programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and housing assistance. Getting a complete count in rural areas will be difficult, reports demographer William O'Hare, a visiting fellow at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. His research brief for the Institute details the difficulties of counting rural populations.

A good place to start exploring the problems likely to be encountered by the 2020 census is to examine what happened in the 2010 census, says O'Hare. He takes a look at hard-to-count counties in 2010 to determine how many were rural (defined in his study as nonmetropolitan) and also their characteristics. In total, there were 316 hard-to-count counties in the U.S. in 2010, defined as those with a mail return rate of less than 73 percent. Of the 316 counties, fully 251 (79 percent) were rural. About one-quarter of the hard-to-count areas were rural minority-majority counties, where Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, or American Indians were the majority of the population: 34 were majority Black counties, including 16 in Mississippi; 37 were majority Hispanic counties, including 20 in Texas; 12 were majority American Indian/Alaskan Native; and 1 was majority Asian. Other hard-to-count rural areas are in Appalachia and in the Southwest, home to many migrant/seasonal farm workers.

To further complicate matters, the 2020 census will be the first to rely primarily on responses via the internet. But a substantial 21 percent of households in rural areas do not have internet access and will have the option to answer by mail, further complicating the process. With all of these issues, "It is important that rural scholars, rural leaders, and rural advocates monitor Census Bureau funding and Census planning over the next two years to make sure there are adequate resources for a complete and accurate count of all rural residents," O'Hare concludes.

Source: Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, 2020 Census Faces Challenges in Rural America

The Brewery Explosion

Pity the thirsty masses of 2006. Back then, there were only 398 breweries in the entire United States. Today, there are 2,843, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—a more than seven-fold increase. In 2006, no state had more than 50 breweries. Today, 15 states have more than 50 and 10 states have more than 100. California has the most—333 in 2016, up from just 45 in 2006. Colorado is second with 204 breweries, up from 22 in 2006.

Not only are more breweries dotting the landscape, but there are also more brewery workers than ever before. After falling slightly between 2006 and 2010 as a consequence of the Great Recession, brewery employment surged 61 percent between 2010 and 2016 to more than 40,000. The rise in brewery employment accounted for more than half the employment growth in the U.S. beverage manufacturing industry during those years, the BLS reports.

Unfortunately, the trend in the average weekly wage for those working at breweries is not as impressive as brewery growth. Between 2006 and 2016, the average fell 25 percent to $969.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics, Industry on Tap: Breweries

Average Household Spends $1,521 on Gifts for Others

Americans are spending less on gifts for people in other households than they once did. The $1,521 spent by the average household on gifts for others in 2016, including cash gifts, was 18 percent less than the $1,861 of 2006, after adjusting for inflation, and 21 percent less than in 2000.

Average spending on gifts for people in other households, 2000 to 2016 (in 2016 dollars)
2016: $1,521
2010: $1,572
2006: $1,861
2000: $1,922

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Life Expectancy Declines, Again

Big, big news: Life expectancy at birth fell for the second year in a row in 2016, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. This is the first two-year life expectancy decline since flu outbreaks in 1962 and 1963 drove life expectancy down, according to NCHS. Life expectancy at birth in 2016 was 78.6 years, 0.1 year less than in 2015. Life expectancy at birth peaked at 78.9 years in 2014.

Drug overdose deaths are behind the life expectancy decline. There were 63,632 overdose deaths in 2016—21 percent (!) more than in 2015. The increase in drug overdose deaths has managed to rearrange the list of leading causes of death. "Unintentional injuries," which includes most drug overdose deaths, is now the 3rd leading cause of death. It was 4th in 2015.

Drug overdose deaths are highest among 25-to-54-year-olds and uncommon among people aged 65 or older. In fact, life expectancy at age 65 increased by 0.1 years in 2016 to 19.4 years as death rates from heart disease and cancer declined.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2016 and Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 1999–2016