Record Low Marriage Rate in the U.S.

The marriage rate has never been lower. We all had a hunch this was the case. Now we have the facts. In 2018, there were 2.1 million marriages in the United States—6.5 marriages per 1,000 population, the lowest rate going all the way back to 1900, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

The marriage rate has had its ups and downs over the years. It reached a peak of 16.4 marriages per 1,000 population in 1946, as couples eagerly tied the knot after the disruptions of World War II. For the next half century or so, the marriage rate bobbled between 10.9 at the highest and 8.4 at the lowest. Then something changed. In 2000, the rate fell to what was then an all-time low of 8.2 marriages per 1,000 population. By 2010, it was just 6.8, and in 2018 it fell to 6.5.

Number of marriages per 1,000 population for selected years, 1900 to 2018
2018: 6.5 (record low)
2010: 6.8
2000: 8.2
1990: 9.8
1980: 10.6
1970: 10.6
1960: 8.5
1950: 11.1
1946: 16.4 (peak)
1940: 12.1
1930: 9.2
1920: 12.0
1910: 10.3
1900: 9.3

Two factors explain the record low marriage rate. First, the majority of young men and women today go to college after graduating from high school. Many of them postpone marriage until they finish their schooling and establish a career. The median age at first marriage for both men and women has been rising almost every year for nearly a decade. In 2019, it was 29.8 for men and 28.0 for women. The all-time lows in median age at first marriage occurred in 1956—age 22.5 for men and 20.1 for women, according to the Census Bureau. Another reason for the low marriage rate is the greater acceptance of cohabitation, which has become the norm for young adults prior to marriage.

Will the marriage rate sink even lower? Probably. Social distancing regulations due to coronavirus are sure to postpone tens of thousands of weddings scheduled for 2020.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Marriage Rates in the United States, 1900–2018

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, first quarter 2020: 59.4%

Just as the homeownership rate was beginning to recover from the Great Recession, the coronavirus hit. The pandemic will likely dampen the homeownership rate in the months and years to come as homeowners struggle to pay their mortgage and wanna-be homeowners spend down their savings to avoid homelessness. 

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group, the nation's first-time homebuyers, climbed in the first quarter of 2020 to 59.4 percent, up from 58.3 percent a year earlier. This is the highest quarterly homeownership rate for the age group in nearly a decade—since the third quarter of 2011. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. It bottomed out at 55.0 in the fourth quarter of 2016. The rate had been trending upward since then, but coronavirus is likely to halt those gains.

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was basically unchanged in the first quarter of 2020, at  48.0 percent and not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 65.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, a statistically significant rise from the rate one year earlier. Don't expect the rise to continue.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Nearly Half of American Adults Have Hypertension

If hypertension is a risk factor for Covid-19, then many Americans are at risk. Nearly half of adults in the United States have hypertension, according to the federal government's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This survey is carried out through mobile examination units that fan out across the country and take measurements of a nationally representative sample of Americans. You can't get better data than this...

Percent with hypertension, 2017–18
Total, 18-plus: 45.4%
Aged 18 to 39: 22.4%
Aged 40 to 59: 54.5%
Aged 60-plus: 74.5%

Note: Hypertension is defined as systolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 130 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 80 mmHg or currently taking medication to lower blood pressure.

Hypertension rises steeply with age, with three out of four people aged 65 or older having the condition. The prevalence is greater for men (51 percent) than for women (40 percent), and it's greater for Blacks (57 percent) than for non-Hispanic Whites (44 percent) or Hispanics (44 percent).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Hypertension Prevalence among Adults Aged 18 and Over: United States, 2017–2018

New Census Bureau Surveys Will Track Impact of Covid-19 on American Households and Businesses

Shortly after the Great Recession commenced in December 2007, the Federal Reserve Board realized it had a problem. The Feds had just finished interviewing respondents for the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances when the economy went into a tailspin. The triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is the premier source of information on the wealth of American households. The Feds knew the results of the 2007 survey would be woefully out of date before they were even tabulated. What was a government agency charged with steadying the nation's financial wellbeing to do?

Be nimble, of course. Nimble describes the next steps taken by the Federal Reserve Board. The Feds went back into the field in 2009 to reinterview those who had participated in the 2007 survey. In doing so, they collected invaluable historical data in the midst of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression.

Fast forward to today. The country faces another crisis that threatens not only our health but also our economy. Now it's the Census Bureau's turn to be nimble, and it is rising to the challenge. The bureau is launching two new surveys—the Household Pulse Survey and the Small Business Pulse Survey—to assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the nation's households and businesses. The goal of the Household Pulse Survey is "to measure various sectors impacted by Covid-19: employment status, consumer spending, food security, housing, education disruptions and dimensions of physical and mental wellness." The goal of the Small Business Pulse Survey is to collect "information on location closings, changes in employment, disruptions in the supply chain, the use of federal assistance programs, and expectations concerning future operations." The data from these surveys will be produced and disseminated in near real-time and made available to the public each week.

This is a heads-up. If you receive an email from the Census Bureau asking you to respond to the Household Pulse Survey or the Small Business Pulse Survey, take a moment to admire the nimbleness of this large government agency. Tell the bureau how things are going. You will be doing your patriotic duty by fulfilling "the urgent need for accurate, frequent data at this crucial moment in America's history."

Source: Census Bureau, Pulse Surveys, New Census Survey Provide Near Real-Time Info on Households, Businesses during Covid-19

Fewer Claiming Early Social Security Benefits

The percentage of older men and women who claim Social Security benefits at age 62—the earliest possible age to begin receiving retired-worker benefits—has dropped steeply over the past two decades. Behind the decline is the greater labor force participation of older Americans, according to an analysis by Patrick J. Purcell of the Social Security Administration. The labor force participation rate of men aged 60 to 64 grew from 53 to 63 percent between 1995 and 2018, while the labor force participation of their female counterparts climbed from 38 to 52 percent.

Among 62-year-old men, the rate of Social Security claiming fell from 44.1 percent in the 1995–99 time period to just 22.1 percent in 2015–18. Among 62-year-old women, the figure fell from 49.4 to just 24.6 percent during those years. Apparently, older Americans are getting the message—the longer they wait to claim Social Security, the bigger their monthly benefit.

As early claiming has declined, there has been a surge in claiming at age 66—deemed Full Retirement Age (or FRA) by the Social Security Administration for those born between 1943 and 1954. Among 66-year-olds in 2015–18, the rate of claiming was 55.7 percent for men and 48.0 percent for women. These figures are up sharply from the 28.2 and 27.7 percent, respectively, of 1995–99.

Purcell notes in his analysis that "trends in retirement age—and in the age at which individuals claim Social Security benefits—can change substantially in a short time." We're about to see just how rapidly claiming rates can change. As older workers lose their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic, early claiming of Social Security benefits may become more popular again.

Source: Social Security Administration, Employment at Older Ages and Social Security Benefit Claiming, 1980–2018

Most of Us Agree, Take It Slow

The small protests of Covid-19 shut-down orders, promoted by right-wing organizations and strategically positioned in state capitals, might have you worried. You probably don't need to worry. Most Americans are more concerned that state restrictions on public activity will be lifted too soon rather than too late, according to a Pew Research Center Survey. Overall, 66 percent of the public fears state governments will lift restrictions too quickly. Only 32 percent are afraid they will be lifted too slowly. Even among Republicans, 51 percent are afraid restrictions will be lifted too soon. Among Democrats, the figure is 81 percent.

That's one thing about which most of us agree. Here's another: most people think the problems the country is facing due to coronavirus are going to get worse. Fully 73 percent of the public says the worst is yet to come versus only 26 percent who say the worst is behind us. Among Democrats, 87 percent are bracing for the worst. Among Republicans, it's 56 percent.

Source: Pew Research Center,  Most Americans Say Trump Was Too Slow in Initial Response to Coronavirus Threat

What If No One Wants to Ride a Bus Again?

Eighty-five percent of American workers usually drive to work, according to the 2018 American Community Survey. Only 5 percent usually take public transportation, a paltry figure that has barely changed in years. It's going to change now and not in a good way. Mass transit use has plummeted because of the coronavirus pandemic. It will be hard to lure any but the most desperate back onto buses and subways. According to a Gallup survey fielded during the first week of April, nine out of ten Americans are now avoiding public transportation.

Public transportation is being hammered by the coronavirus. Not only are transit drivers at heightened risk of becoming infected with Covid-19, but their passengers are too. Research is documenting the disease's spread through public transportation. According to a National Bureau of Economic Research study, public transportation—specifically the subway—appears to be the primary way coronavirus infected tens of thousands in New York City. To make this determination, economist Jeffrey E. Harris of MIT superimposed maps of subway turnstile entries with coronavirus incidence in New York City by zip code through the month of March. The results, he says, show the subway system to have been "a major disseminator—if not the primary transmission vehicle—of coronavirus infection."

This is a problem for the nation's large cities and their once vibrant economies. If mass transit is a primary vector through which communicable diseases spread widely and deeply, what is the future for cities where a large share of workers depend on public transportation to get to work?

Cars are not the answer. Not only do they create traffic jams and pollution, but private vehicles are unaffordable for many. Strict social distancing on buses and subways? Only if we want to slow city life to a crawl. Walking works only for those who live close to their employer, a luxury few can afford. But one mode of transportation checks all the boxes: inexpensive, socially distant, and healthy: the bicycle. Only 0.5 percent of American workers usually bicycle to work. Many more would do so if cities became not just bike friendly but bike ferocious, freeing streets of cars to make room for tens of thousands of  bicycle commuters. In Berlin, 13 percent of workers commute by bicycle. In Copenhagen and Amsterdam, the majority bike to work. We can do it too. Bicycles could be the route to resilience for America's large cities.

The Generations in 2019

A Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2019 population estimates by single-year of age reveals the ongoing decline of Gen X and older generations as deaths shrink their ranks. The Millennial generation and Gen Z continue to grow because of immigration.

Between 2018 and 2019, the number of Baby Boomers fell by 829,000, and the number of older Americans fell by 1.7 million. Generation X also lost members, with a population decline of 159,000. When the Census Bureau's 2020 population estimates are released next year, Covid-19 deaths will add to but not dwarf these pre-pandemic losses.

Between 2010 and 2019, the number of Americans born in 1945 or earlier fell by 39 percent, a loss of 16 million people. The Baby-boom generation shrank 7 percent, with nearly 6 million fewer Boomers in 2019 than in 2010. Generation X lost 544,000 members during those years. Meanwhile, the number of Millennials grew by almost 3 million and Gen Z by 2 million. Millennials and younger generations now account for the 55 percent majority of the U.S. population.

Size of generations in 2019 (and % of total population)
328,240,000 (100%): Total population
  39,773,000 (12%): Recession generation (aged 0 to 9)
  63,486,000 (19%): Generation Z (aged 10 to 24)
  79,778,000 (24%): Millennial generation (aged 25 to 42)  
  48,696,000 (15%): Generation X (aged 43 to 54)  
  71,649,000 (22%): Baby Boom generation (aged 55 to 73)  
  24,858,000 (  8%): Older Americans (aged 74-plus)  

Note: The Recession generation was born in 2010 or later; Generation Z was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; Older Americans were born in 1945 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010–2019

Early April Reactions to the Coronavirus Pandemic

15% personally know someone who has been hospitalized or died from Covid-19.
27% of Blacks personally know someone who has been hospitalized or died from Covid-19.
—Pew Research Center, Health Concerns from Covid-19 Much Higher among Hispanics and Blacks than Whites, April 7-12

66% are concerned that they might unknowingly spread Covid-19 to others.
55% are concerned that they will get Covid-19 and require hospitalization.
—Pew Research Center, Health Concerns from Covid-19 Much Higher among Hispanics and Blacks than Whites, April 7-12

15% say their emotional/mental health is already suffering from Covid-19.
37% say they can last a few more weeks or months before mental health damage.
48% say they can go as long as necessary without emotional scars.
—Gallup, Americans Say Covid-19 Hurting Mental Health Most, April 6-12

55% of those who have left their house in the past week have used face coverings in public.
—ABC News/Ipsos, Coronavirus Outbreak Triggering Significant Changes to American Society, April 8-9

83% of parents with children in K–12 are satisfied with the way their children's school has been handling instruction during school closures.
—Pew Research Center, Lower-Income Parents Most Concerned about their Children Falling Behind Amid Covid-19 School Closures, April 7-12

20% of Americans say they will return to their normal activities immediately once government restrictions on social contact are lifted and businesses/schools start to reopen.
31% of Republicans say they will immediately return to normal
11% of Democrats say they will immediately return to normal.
—Gallup, Americans Remain Risk Averse about Getting Back to Normal, April 3-5

You Think You've Got Cabin Fever?

The average housing unit in the United States has a median of 1,500 square feet of living space, according to the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey. With more than two people in the average household, each of us can lay claim to a median of 700 square feet. Those 700 square feet are feeling pretty cramped these days.

Of course, some of us are packed in tighter than others. Take the residents of the New York metropolitan area, for example. The average housing unit in New York has a median of 1,150 square feet of living space—580 square feet per person. It's even tighter in San Francisco, at 550 square feet per person. For householders under age 25 in San Francisco, per capita living space is just 350 square feet.

Percent distribution of households by square footage of housing unit
Under 1,000: 23%
1,000 to 1,499: 26%
1,500 to 1,999: 21%
2,000 to 2,999: 21%
3,000 or more: 10%

Young adults have the smallest homes. Householders under age 25 live in housing units with a median of just 925 square feet—or 475 square feet per person. Middle-aged and older Americans have the largest homes. Householders ranging in age from 45 to 74 live in homes with a median of 1,600 square feet. On a per capita basis, people aged 65 or older have the most room to roam—a median of more than 900 square feet per person.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 American Housing Survey

The Big Experiment in Remote Learning

One-fifth of the nation's households are taking part in a massive experiment in remote learning. Among the 129 million households in the United States, 26 million are families with children aged 6 to 17—children whose school buildings are now closed due to the coronavirus pandemic and who are receiving their lessons at home. Among householders aged 35 to 44, the majority are supervising children who are learning remotely.

Percent of households with children aged 6 to 17 by age of householder
Total households: 20.4%
Under age 25: 3.6%
Aged 25 to 29: 14.9%
Aged 30 to 34: 31.3%
Aged 35 to 39: 50.2%
Aged 40 to 44: 55.1%
Aged 45 to 49: 45.8%
Aged 50 to 54: 26.6%
Aged 55 to 64: 6.7%
Aged 65-plus: 1.0%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2019

Winter is the Cold Season

It's not just folklore but fact. Colds are more common in winter than in the summer, according to the 2018 National Health Interview Survey. When Americans were asked whether they had experienced a head or chest cold in the past two weeks, 16.6 percent said yes in the winter months of January through March. Only 7 percent said yes in the summer months of July through September...

Percent with a head/chest cold in the past two weeks
16.6% in the winter (January-March)
  8.5% in the spring (April-June)
  7.0% in the summer (July-September)
13.7% in the fall (October-December)

In every season, children under age 18 were most likely to have had a cold. In the winter, more than 20 percent of children had experienced a cold in the past two weeks. In every season, people aged 65 or older were least likely to have had a cold.

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Percentage of Person Who Had a Cold in the Past 2 Week, by age Group and Calendar Quarter—National Health Interview Survey, United States, 2018

Coronavirus Hospitalization Rates by Age

At what rate are Americans ending up in a hospital due to Covid-19? The CDC is keeping a running tab of Covid-19 hospitalizations in 14 states and comparing the number being hospitalized to area population estimates. The states include New York, which has been hardest hit, as well as California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.

Overall, in the four weeks ending March 28, 2020, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 in the study area was 4.6 per 100,000 population. The hospitalization rate rises with age...

Rate of Covid-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 population, March 1–28
Aged 0 to 4: 0.2
Aged 5 to 17: 0.1
Aged 18 to 49: 2.5
Aged 50 to 64: 7.4
Aged 65 to 74: 12.2
Aged 75 to 84: 15.8
Aged 85-plus: 17.2

Among those hospitalized, 89 percent had underlying health conditions, with hypertension (50 percent) and obesity (48 percent) most common. The CDC findings suggest Blacks may account for a disproportionately large share of those hospitalized with Covid-19. While Blacks accounted for 18 percent of the population of the study area, they were a larger 33 percent of those hospitalized with Covid-19.

Source: CDC, Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019—COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1–30, 2020

Afraid to Go to the Doctor

Many Americans are now afraid to go to the doctor, according to a Gallup survey. People who need routine medical care—nothing to do with coronavirus—are afraid to visit a clinic or doctor's office.

Here's the question Gallup asked on March 28-April 2: "If you needed medical treatment right now, how concerned would you be about being exposed to coronavirus at a doctor's office or hospital?" Fully 83 percent of Americans say they would be moderately or very concerned, with 42 percent very concerned. Only 4 percent say they would not be concerned at all.

By age, there is little variation in the degree of concern. Young adults aged 18 to 29 (83 percent) are just as likely as those aged 65 or older (82 percent) to be moderately or very concerned.

By health condition, people who are immune compromised are most likely to be moderately or very concerned about going to a doctor's office or hospital (92 percent), with the 56 percent majority very concerned. Most of those with kidney disease and COPD are also very concerned.

Source: Gallup, Americans Worry Doctor Visits Raise Covid-19 Risk

New Orleans Has Highest Prevalence of Covid-19

The prevalence of Covid-19 varies greatly by metropolitan area, according to an analysis by Joe Cortright the director of City Observatory, a web site and think tank devoted to urban analysis. Among the 53 metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more, the number of reported Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population ranges from a low of 16.4 in Minneapolis-St. Paul to a high of 692.6 in New Orleans. The median among large metro areas is 51 cases per 100,000 population. Here are the 12 metros with the highest Covid-19 prevalence rates as of April 5...

Number of reported Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population, as of April 5, 2020
1. New Orleans: 692.6
2. New York: 441.6
3. Detroit: 297.4
4. Boston: 190.8
5. Indianapolis: 141.1
6. Seattle: 137.6
7. Philadelphia: 126.4
8. Chicago: 116.3
9. Miami: 113.4
10. Buffalo: 104.0
11. Nashville: 101.6
12: Milwaukee: 89.8

Metros with a relatively low prevalence of Covid-19 today should not rest on their laurels. More cases are coming. In just one week, the rate in Indianapolis nearly tripled, climbing from 51.0 on March 29 to the 141.1 of April 5. Miami's rate more than doubled during the week, rising from 46.2 to 113.4.

In Wisconsin, where Milwaukee has the 12th highest rate of Covid-19 among the nation's large metros, the primary election is being held today. Many voters will have to choose between voting in-person or not voting at all. Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against extending the deadline for receipt of Wisconsin's mail-in ballots, which many voters have yet to receive.

Source: City Observatory, Joe Cortright, Covid-19 Prevalence by Metro Area

Return to Normal? Not So Fast

"If there were no government restrictions and people were able to decide for themselves about being out in public, how soon would you return to your normal day-to-day activities?"

When Gallup asked the public this question recently, only 14 percent said they would return to normal right now. Americans are traumatized by the coronavirus pandemic, and most would be hesitant to resume life as they once knew it. This suggests that economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic could be painfully slow.

If restrictions were lifted, 42 percent of Americans say they would wait until new cases declined significantly before resuming their normal activities. Another 38 percent say they would return to normal activities only after there were no new cases for a period of time. Seven percent say they would resume their normal activities only after a vaccine is developed.

Willingness to resume normal activities depends on how vulnerable people believe they are to the virus. Those who believe it is very likely that they would suffer severe symptoms are most hesitant to return to normal. Only 9 percent would resume their normal activities immediately, and 58 percent would wait until there are no new cases. Among those who believe it is very unlikely they would experience severe symptoms, fully 44 percent would resume their normal activities right now and just 17 percent would wait until there are no new cases.

Source: Gallup, Americans Hesitant to Return to Normal in Short Term

Take-Out from Restaurants Is Essential

During a week's time, Americans eat out an average of five times a week, according to a pre-coronavirus study by the USDA's Economic Research Service. These "food-away-from-home" acquisitions, as the ERS calls them, include everything from meals at restaurants, to milk shakes from ice cream shops, tacos from food trucks, pizza deliveries, and school lunches. This means nearly one-fourth of our 21 meals a week are acquired from restaurants or other places away from home.

The coronavirus is putting a serious dent in those dining habits. No longer can we dine in a restaurant, so take-out has become the only option. Fortunately, states that have ordered non-essential businesses to close have also deemed take-out to be essential. For most of us, it is.

Weekly frequency of food-away-from-home acquisitions by age
Total adults: 4.72
Under age 25:  5.01
Aged 25 to 34: 5.31
Aged 35 to 44: 5.45
Aged 45 to 54: 5.05
Aged 55 to 64: 4.96
Aged 65 to 74: 4.28
Aged 75-plus:  3.44

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, America's Eating Habits: Food Away from Home

Growth is Slowing in the 10 Largest Metropolitan Areas

Nearly 9 out of 10 Americans (86 percent) live in a metropolitan area. The 56 percent majority lives in a metropolitan area with a population of at least 1 million. One in four (26 percent) lives in one of the top 10 metropolitan areas. These are the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States and their populations, according to the Census Bureau's 2019 population estimates...

1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA: 19,206,000
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: 13,215,000
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI: 9,459,000
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 7,573,000
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX: 7,066,000
6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: 6,280,000
7. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: 6,166,000
8. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: 6,102,000
9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA: 6,020,000
10. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: 4,948,000

This is the first time Phoenix has appeared in the top-10 list. In 2019, it bumped Boston off the list as the Phoenix population expanded by 2 percent in a year's time and Boston's grew by just 0.3 percent. Boston, with a population of 4,873,000 is now the 11th largest metropolitan area in the United States.

Except for Phoenix, the 10 largest metropolitan areas grew more slowly between 2018 and 2019 than their average annual growth in the 2010 to 2019 time period. The three largest metro areas—New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago—all experienced an 0.3 percent decline in population between 2018 and 2019.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2019