First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2020: 50.1%

For the first time since 2011, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 edged above the 50 percent threshold, allowing them to reclaim their position as the nation's first-time homebuyers. First-time homebuyers are defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. Historically, householders aged 30-to-34 were the nation's first-time homebuyers. But in 2011, their homeownership rate fell below 50 percent and has been stuck there ever since. Until now. 

Let's postpone the celebration, however. The coronavirus pandemic has upended the nation's data collection efforts. The Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), which produces the quarterly homeownership statistics, is no exception. Because of the pandemic, the Census Bureau has been collecting HVS data by telephone rather than in-person interviews, and monthly response rates have dropped. Just 66 percent of households responded in July and 69 percent in August. This compares with a response rate of 83 percent for those months in 2019. When the Census Bureau resumed in-person interviews in September, the response rate increased to 79 percent, a hopeful sign that things will eventually return to normal. 

But not yet. As was true for second quarter 2020 data, third quarter data cannot be taken at face value. As senior research associate Daniel McCue of the Joint Center for Housing Studies explains it: "It appears that we are in for a period of time where trends in housing metrics obtained from the HVS—such as homeownership rates, vacancy rates, and household growth—will be difficult to determine and largely unknown."

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Percentage of Men at Work Hits Record Low

Working parents are having a tough time coping with the coronavirus pandemic. Just how tough is spelled out in a Pew Research Center analysis of monthly data from the 2020 Current Population Survey. For many parents, the pandemic means they can't work at all—either they lost their job or they have had to leave the labor force to care for children and supervise their education. 

Only 60.5 percent of all men aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, Pew reports. This is the smallest share of men at work on record and well below the 65.3 percent who were working in September 2019. The trend for women is similar. Only 49.2 percent of women aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, the smallest share in 35 years and down from 54.0 percent in September 2019.

One reason for these low figures is the struggle parents face as they attempt to juggle work, child care, and homeschooling. The percentage of mothers and fathers who were working in September 2020 was well below the 2019 figures. Among fathers, the biggest decline occurred for those with children under age 3. In September 2019, fully 91.9 percent of these fathers were working. In September 2020, a smaller 85.0 percent were working—a 6.9 percentage point drop. Among mothers, those with children aged 3 to 13 registered the biggest decline—a 6.7 percentage point drop. The parents fortunate enough to be working in September 2020 reported fewer hours of work per week than their counterparts did in September 2019. 

The findings of this analysis are in contrast to earlier studies, Pew notes. The earlier studies showed mothers cutting back on work more than fathers. The latest findings show the coronavirus pandemic affecting mothers and fathers similarly. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Fewer Mothers and Fathers in U.S. Are Working Due to Covid-19 Downturn; Those at Work Have Cut Hours

Blacks Are More than Twice as Likely as Whites to Know Someone Who Died from Covid-19

Twenty-two percent of all Americans know someone who died from Covid-19, according to PRRI's 2020 American Values Survey. Blacks are more than twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to know someone who died...

Percent who know someone who died from Covid-19

38% of Blacks

29% of Hispanics

16% of non-Hispanic whites

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

Who Do You Believe about the Coronavirus Pandemic?

Nearly half of the American public (49 percent) has "a lot" of trust in Dr. Anthony Fauci to provide accurate information about the coronavirus pandemic, according to the PRRI 2020 American Values Survey. The only other source that garners slightly more trust (51 percent) is university research centers. Just 14 percent of the public has a lot of trust in Donald Trump to provide accurate information about the pandemic. But there are big differences in trust by political ideology. Here are the percentages with "a lot" of trust in each source...

• Dr. Anthony Fauci: 73 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans 
• University research centers: 65 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of Republicans
• State and local health organizations: 60 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans
• Joe Biden: 58 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of Republicans
• CDC: 57 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of Republicans
• Donald Trump: 1 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans

Republicans who say Fox News is their most trusted source of television news are much more likely to trust Donald Trump to keep them informed about the pandemic. Fully 58 percent of Fox News Republicans, as PRRI calls them, have a lot of trust in Donald Trump as a source of information about coronavirus. In fact, Donald Trump is their most trusted source—far ahead of university research centers (32 percent), Dr. Fauci (23 percent), and state and local health organizations (15 percent). 

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

Median Home Value at Record High in 2019

The median value of the American home has finally surpassed the manic figure of 2007—just before the housing bubble burst. The nation's homeowners reported a median home value of $240,500 in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS). This is a bit more than the $239,600 reported by homeowners in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. After 12 long years, perhaps this valuation now reflects reality—in contrast to the wishful thinking of 2007.

Not every survey agrees that median housing value is at a record high. According to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, homeowners reported a median home value of $225,000 in 2019, well below the $246,900 of 2007, after adjusting for inflation. According to the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey, homeowners reported a median value of $230,000 in 2019, still below the inflation-adjusted $236,100 of 2007. But the American Community Survey's sample size is much larger than either the American Housing Survey or the Survey of Consumer Finances, so the ACS is more likely to reflect reality. 

Median home value for selected years, 2007 to 2019 (in 2019 dollars)

2019: $240,500 (new record high)

2018: $229,700 

2015: $209,800

2013: $190,800 (post-Great Recession low)

2010: $210,900

2007: $239,600 (previous record high)

It is unknown how the coronavirus pandemic will affect home values. But the record-low mortgage interest rates of 2020 are spurring more home buying, which is likely to boost values even higher.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Community Survey

Inheritances Fuel Wealth Disparity

The median net worth of Black householders under age 35 was just $600 in 2019, according to the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). This is just a fraction of the $25,400 median net worth of non-Hispanic white householders in the age group. The wealth gap does not disappear with age...  

Median net worth of Black and non-Hispanic white households by age of householder, 2019

	Black	non-Hispanic white
Under age 35	$600	$25,400
Aged 35 to 54	$40,100	$185,000
Aged 55-plus	$53,800	$315,000

One reason for the wealth gap between Blacks and non-Hispanic whites is disparity in the intergenerational transmission of wealth, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Board. Non-Hispanic white households are much more likely than Black households to receive financial gifts that boost their net worth—such as funds to pay for college or help buying a house. Non-Hispanic whites are also much more likely than Blacks to receive an inheritance.  

A substantial 30 percent of non-Hispanic white households have already received an inheritance, according to the 2019 SCF. Only 10 percent of Black households have received one. Non-Hispanic white households are also more likely than Black households to expect an inheritance in the future—17 versus 6 percent. These inheritances are often the seed money that helps parents gift their children with college tuitions and downpayments. And so it goes. 

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances

Family Home Still the Most Valuable Asset

The family home is still the single most valuable asset owned by the average American household. The primary residence accounted for 26 percent of the value of all household assets, according to the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances. In second place is business equity, accounting for 19 percent. Retirement accounts are in third place (15 percent). 

Distribution of the value of household assets, 2019

Primary residence: 26.1%

Business equity: 19.5%

Retirement accounts: 15.1%

Pooled investment funds: 9.0%

Other residential property: 6.2%

Stocks: 6.1%

Transaction accounts: 4.8%

Nonresidential property: 3.0%

Vehicles: 2.7%

Other: 7.5%

Between 1989 and 2019, retirement accounts more than doubled as a share of total household assets—rising from 7 to 15 percent. Similarly, pooled investment funds (mutual funds) also grew in importance, climbing from just 2 percent of the total in 1989 to the 9 percent of 2019. The value of the family home, in contrast, fell during those years. The primary residence accounted for 31 percent of total household assets in 1989 and 26 percent in 2019. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances 

New Spending Categories in the 2019 CEX

It is always interesting to note any changes in the line items of the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) each year. New items, combined items, and deleted items reveal the effort by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to keep up with changes in technology and lifestyles. 

In 2005, for example, the expenditure category "personal digital audio equipment" was added to the survey to capture spending on Apple's phenomenally successful iPod and similar devices. But, as Demo Memo reported previously, by the time "personal digital audio equipment" made it into the CEX, average household spending on this item was at its peak, topping out at $22.08 in 2006 (in 2019 dollars). By 2019, average household spending on personal digital audio players had fallen to just $0.51. Yes, that's 51 cents.

CEX researchers occasionally combine items, which can dismay those who track spending trends. Demo Memo reported on one such combo a few years ago. In 2017, the "video cassette, tape, and disc rentals" category was folded into the "streamed and downloaded video" category. Consequently, analysts could no longer track spending on streaming/downloading alone, which had been one of the fastest growing entertainment categories of the 2006-to-2016 decade.

What's new in the recently released 2019 Consumer Expenditure Survey? Only a handful of items. Let's start with the mundane: "swimwear" has been added as an apparel category for men, women, boys, and girls. It's not clear where swimwear spending was housed prior to its becoming a line item  in 2019—perhaps it was included in underwear or in costumes?

More interesting are two other new categories in the 2019 CEX—"scooters and other single rider transportation," and "bike sharing." The average household spent $4.79 on scooters in 2019, which doesn't sound like much because the average includes both purchasers and non purchasers. But this amount is more than twice what the average household spent on men's swimwear in 2019. The biggest spenders on scooters are people aged 75 or older. At this age, the scooter surely must be a mobility device, which raises the question of why it appears under the "sports, recreation, and exercise equipment" umbrella rather in the transportation section alongside cars, motorcycles, airplanes, and buses.  

The average household spent a lot less on bike sharing than on scooters in 2019—just $0.22, although it should be noted that data collection on this item did not start until the second quarter of 2019. Give it time, and spending on bike sharing is likely to rise. Like scooters, bike sharing is in the "sports, recreation and exercise equipment" category, but arguably more deserving of its placement there. The biggest spenders on bike sharing are householders under age 25. Among householders aged 65 or older, there are no 2019 spending data for bike sharing—meaning very few older Americans availed themselves of the service. Note that car sharing, unlike bike sharing, does not yet have its own line item in the CEX. The significant household spending on car sharing shows up in the transportation category, subsumed under "taxi fares" (for services such as Uber, Lyft, etc.), while Zipcar and similar platforms likely add to spending on "rented vehicles." 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2019 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Small Businesses Still Pessimistic

When the coronavirus first swept through the country, most small businesses were optimistic about a rapid return to normal. Only 39 percent told the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey during the week of April 26-May 2 that they expected it to be more than six months before their operations returned to normal. As the pandemic dragged on, however, business pessimism grew. By the week of May 17-23, a larger 52 percent majority of small businesses thought it would take more than six months before normal returned. 

Hope rekindled in June, however. During the week of June 7-13, the share of small businesses that thought it would be more than six months before a return to normal fell back below the 50 percent threshold—to 47.4 percent. But the optimism lasted only a week. As the summer surge commenced, the percentage of businesses expecting it to be more than 6 months before a return to normal again climbed above 50 percent. And that's where it has been, week after week, ever since. 

Percent of small businesses expecting it will be more than 6 months before operations return to normal, or operations will never return to normal, or the business has permanently closed

Week 1 (4/26-5/2):     37.6%

Week 2 (5/3-5/9):       39.0%

Week 3 (5/10-5/16):   41.6%

Week 4 (5/17-5/23):   51.8% (first time above 50 percent)

Week 5 (5/24-5/30):   50.8%

Week 6: (5/31-6/6):    51.1%

Week 7 (6/7-6/13):     47.4% (last time below 50 percent)

Week 8 (6/14-6/20):   50.3%

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.

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Week 17 (9/27-10-3): 52.9%

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

24% Expect to Lose Employment Income in Next Four Weeks

In the final week of September, nearly one in four Americans aged 18 or older expected that they or someone in their household would lose employment income in the next four weeks—before the November 3 presidential election. Nearly half (46 percent) had already experienced a loss of employment income in their household since March 13, 2020. These results are from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, which is tracking the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the American public. The latest survey was fielded during the week of September 16-28. Here are the percentages who expected to lose income by age group...

Percent who expect a loss of employment income in household in next four weeks

Total 18-plus: 24.0%

Aged 18 to 24: 21.7%

Aged 25 to 39: 27.2%

Aged 40 to 54: 27.9%

Aged 55 to 64: 25.3%

Aged 65-plus: 15.1%

A substantial share of the population is expecting the axe to fall regardless of demographic characteristic. By education, the percentage of adults who say their household's employment income will decline in the next four weeks ranges from a high of 36 percent among those without a high school diploma to a still substantial 18 percent among people with a bachelor's degree. By household income, the figure ranges from a high of 35 percent among those with incomes below $25,000 to a significant 16 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more. 

Such widespread financial distress is likely to be a big factor on election day. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16—September 28

Democrats, Republicans Far Apart on Importance of Coronavirus

The 62 percent majority of voters say the coronavirus outbreak is very important to their vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Coronavirus is not the most important issue, however. More important than coronavirus is the economy (79 percent of voters say the economy is very important to their vote), health care (68 percent), and Supreme Court appointments (64 percent). Of course, Democrats and Republicans have different opinions about the importance of coronavirus...

Percent of voters who say the coronavirus outbreak is very important to their vote

Democrats: 82%

Republicans: 39%

Note: Pew fielded this survey before the President became infected with Covid-19. How the White House outbreak affects voting priorities remains to be seen. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Important Issues in the 2020 Election

Most Americans Feel Less Safe

The 55 percent majority of Americans say they feel less safe than they did five years ago, according to a Lloyd's Register Foundation poll undertaken in partnership with Gallup. The poll explored attitudes toward and perceptions of risk in 142 countries around the world, interviewing 150,000 people. 

The World Risk Poll was fielded in 2019, well before Covid-19 became one of the major risks faced by the public each day. Yet most Americans at the time reported feeling less safe. The United States is an anomaly in this regard. Worldwide, a smaller 36 percent of the public reported feeling less safe in 2019 than five years earlier. 

Perhaps the cause of this anomaly is the fact that Americans are more likely than the average global citizen to report a harmful experience in the past two years. Fully 25 percent of Americans say they have experienced harm from violent crime in the past two years, for example, compared with an 18 percent global average. More than one-third of Americans (35 percent) say they have been harmed by severe weather in the past two years versus 22 percent worldwide. An even larger 40 percent of Americans say they have experienced harm from mental health problems, double the 20 percent global average. 

The U.S. public is also more worried than average about issues such as climate change. Nearly half (49 percent) of Americans say climate change is a very serious threat to the United States over the next 20 years. Worldwide, a smaller 41 percent of the public regards climate change as a very serious threat to their country. Americans are also more worried about receiving false information when online. Fully 67 percent of internet users in the U.S. worry about this versus 57 percent of internet users worldwide. 

Source: Gallup, Did You Risk Your Life Today? and The Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll 

30 Years of Student Loans

Student loans are a ball and chain around the necks of millions of Americans. It didn't used to be this way. The first time the Federal Reserve fielded the Survey of Consumer Finances in 1989, only 8.9 percent of households had student loans. Those households owed a median of just $6,000 (in 2019 dollars) in education debt. Thirty years later in 2019, a much larger 21.4 percent of households had student loans, and they owed a median of $22,000. 

Of course, younger adults carry the biggest burden of student loans. Among householders under age 35, the share with education debt climbed from 17 percent in 1989 to 41 percent in 2019. A growing share of middle-aged householders also have education debt. Take a look...

Percent of households with education debt by age of householder, 1989 and 2019

	2019	1989
Total households	21.4%	8.9%
Under age 35	41.4	17.1
Aged 35 to 44	33.7	10.9
Aged 45 to 54	23.3	7.3
Aged 55 to 64	12.2	4.1
Aged 65 to 74	4.2	NA
Aged 75-plus	NA	NA

NA = Too few cases to make an estimate.

The rise of education debt helps to explain why the net worth of householders under age 55 was lower in 2019 than it was in 1989, after adjusting for inflation. The net worth of householders aged 55 or older increased during those years...

Net worth of households by age of householder, 1989 and 2019 (in 2019 dollars)

	2019	1989	percent change
Total households	$121,800	$93,600	30.1%
Under age 35	14,000	16,200	-13.6
Aged 35 to 44	91,100	112,500	-19.0
Aged 45 to 54	168,800	195,100	-13.5
Aged 55 to 64	213,200	195,300	9.2
Aged 65 to 74	266,100	154,300	72.5
Aged 75-plus	254,900	144,300	76.6

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances

Most Americans Don't Get Enough Exercise: True or False?

There's a lot of tsk-tsking about how little exercise Americans get, with many blaming our couch potato lifestyle for our growing girth. Now this notion is being called into question by a CDC study that probes more deeply how much exercise the average person gets in a typical week. 

First, a little background. The federal government measures our physical activity through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The survey asks respondents how much moderate/vigorous leisure-time physical activity they get in a typical week. Over the years, the survey has consistently found a minority of adults meeting the government's guideline of 150 moderate-intensity minutes of physical activity per week. Only 38.6 percent met the aerobic guideline in 2011–16.

But wait. All this time, the government has been counting only leisure-time physical activity. So all the sweat and tears of those who move furniture, hammer nails, dig ditches, chase toddlers, clean houses, and turn patients don't count. Until now. The CDC added additional questions to the 2011–16 NHANES asking about physical activity during paid work, housework, and transportation (walking to the store, biking to work). Voila! When those domains are also considered, the 64 percent majority of adults meet the aerobic guideline. Not only that, but some of the exercise disparities between groups narrow. 

Take education, for example. When measuring only leisure-time physical activity, the percentage who meet the aerobic guideline ranges from a low of 22 percent for the least educated (without a high school diploma) to 53 percent among the best educated (with a bachelor's degree)—a 31.2 percentage point gap. But when physical activity during paid work, housework, and transportation are added to the mix, the gap is cut in half. The 54.6 percent majority of those with the least education now meet the guideline compared with 69.1 percent of college graduates, a 14.5 percentage point gap. 

When all domains are considered, the majority of Americans in all but one demographic segment meet the federal guideline for aerobic physical activity during a typical week. People aged 65 or older are the only ones who fall short, with 46.5 percent meeting the guideline (up from 27.3 percent when only leisure-time physical activity is considered). Why doesn't the federal government always include the other domains when it asks about physical activity? Because doing so would add questions to the survey and increase respondent burden, the CDC notes. 

The fact that Americans get more exercise than long assumed is good news. But there's bad news as well. If most Americans are meeting the aerobic physical activity guideline, then something other than a lack of exercise must be to blame for our increasing weight. Time to start skipping dessert.

Source: CDC, Combining Data form Assessments of Leisure, Occupational, Household, and Transportation Physical Activity among Adults, NHANES 2011–2016

How Important Is Computer Science Education?

The 69 percent majority of parents with children in grades 7 through 12 think it is important for their children to learn computer science, but only 35 percent think it is very important, according to a Gallup survey supported by Google. For the survey, computer science is defined as "the study of computers, including both hardware and software design, development and programming." It does not include simply using a computer, doing online research, or creating documents on a computer.  

Students themselves are even less likely than parents to think it is important to learn computer science. Only 40 percent think it is important, and just 16 percent think it is very important. Boys (22 percent) are more likely than girls (9 percent) to think it is very important to learn computer science.

Among parents, 32 percent think it is very likely that their child will need to know computer science for their career someday. Just 35 percent of parents have ever encouraged their child to pursue a career in computer science. Among students, only 10 percent say they are very likely to pursue a career in computer science.

Source: Gallup, Parents Think Computer Science Education Is Important

Covid-19 Recession Endangers Black Wealth

First, the good news. The median net worth of Black households climbed 33 percent between 2016 and 2019, after adjusting for inflation. This was a much bigger increase than the 18 percent rise in the median net worth of all households during those years and far surpassed the 3 percent increase in the median net worth of non-Hispanic white households.

There's more good news. The wealth gap between non-Hispanic whites and Blacks narrowed between 2016 and 2019. Non-Hispanic white households had 10 times the wealth of Blacks in 2016. They had only 8 times the wealth in 2019.

Now for the bad news. The median net worth of Black households was just $24,100 in 2019. Sure, this is 33 percent more than in 2016, but it isn't much of a buffer during a pandemic. 

Median household net worth by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2019

Non-Hispanic whites: $189,100

Hispanics: $36,100

Blacks: $24,100

Now for the really bad news. The gains made by Black households in the past few years are endangered by the coronavirus pandemic. To start with, Black households had less of a financial buffer than non-Hispanic whites or Hispanics. Now, the buffer is eroding in the struggle to stay afloat during the Covid-19 Recession. 

Blacks have been hit hard by Covid-19—physically and financially. As of mid-September, 1 in 1,020 Blacks has died of coronavirus, according to APM Research Lab—a higher rate than any other race or Hispanic origin group. The 52 percent majority of Blacks say they or someone in their household has experienced a loss of employment income since March 2020, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey fielded in September. Thirty-two percent of Blacks expect to lose employment income in their household in the next four weeks. Among Black homeowners, 16 percent could not make last month's mortgage payment. Among Black renters, 24 percent missed last month's rent. Forty-three percent of Blacks have had trouble paying bills during the pandemic, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Forty percent have had to use money from their savings or retirement account to make ends meet. One in three has had to borrow money from friends or family to stay afloat. 

We won't know how much damage the Covid-19 Recession inflicts on Black household wealth until the results of the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances are released in the fall of 2023. But, it's not looking good. The gains of the past few years may be wiped out. 

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances

Median Household Net Worth in 2019: $121,800

How wealthy is the average American household? We find out only every three years, which is a very long wait. Well, the wait is over but the moment is bittersweet. 

On the one hand, we now know that net worth climbed by a substantial 17.7 percent between 2016 and 2019, after adjusting for inflation—almost, but not quite, a record-busting increase (outdone only by the 18.4 percent increase between 2004 and 2007). On the other hand, because of Covid, who cares? Reviewing the  2019 numbers is like looking through an old family photo album of a time long ago and far away.

Still, the story must be told...

Median household net worth, 1989 to 2019 (in 2019 dollars)

2019: $121,800

2016: $103,500

2013:   $89,400

2010:   $90,700

2007: $149,400 (record high)

2004: $126,200

2001: $125,300

1998: $112,800

1995:   $96,500

1992:   $88,900

1989:   $93,600

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances

Mental Health Problems Common before Coronavirus

The mental health of Americans has taken a beating during the coronavirus pandemic. But mental health wasn't all that great in 2019, either. According to results from the 2019 National Health Interview Survey, a substantial 18.5 percent of adults had experienced symptoms of depression in the past two weeks, and 15.6 percent had experienced symptoms of anxiety. Here are the numbers by age...

Percent with symptoms of depression in past two weeks by age, 2019

Aged 18 to 29: 21.0%

Aged 30 to 44: 16.8%

Aged 45 to 64: 18.4%

Aged 65-plus: 18.4%

Percent with symptoms of anxiety in past two weeks by age, 2019

Aged 18 to 29: 19.5%

Aged 30 to 44: 16.6%

Aged 45 to 64: 15.2%

Aged 65-plus: 11.2%

Millions of Americans are receiving treatment for their mental health problems—either they are taking medication and/or receiving counseling or therapy. Overall, 19.2 percent had received treatment for mental health problems in the past 12 months, according to 2019 survey results. Medication was being taken by 15.8 percent of adults, and 9.5 percent were receiving counseling/therapy. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Symptoms of Depression among Adults: United States, 2019; Symptoms of Generalized Anxiety Disorder among Adults: United States, 2019; Mental Health Treatment among Adults: United States, 2019

Median Tenure with Employer: 4.1 Years

How long have you worked for your current employer? Among all wage and salary workers aged 16 or older, median tenure was 4.1 years as of January 2020. Among workers aged 25 or older, median tenure was 4.9 years.

The median tenure of workers aged 25 or older was slightly higher a decade ago in 2010, at 5.2 years. Tenure declined in every age group over the decade with one exception. Among workers aged 65 or older, median tenure grew from 9.9 years in 2010 to 10.3 years in 2020. One reason for the increase is the rising labor force participation of older Americans. 

Median years of tenure with current employer by age, 2020

Aged 25 to 34: 2.8

Aged 35 to 44: 4.9

Aged 45 to 54: 7.5

Aged 55 to 64: 9.9

Aged 65-plus: 10.3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Tenure in 2020

50% of Americans Fear Medical Bankruptcy

There's more to fear than coronavirus. There's bankruptcy to fear as well, bankruptcy caused by mounting medical bills for treating coronavirus. Half of Americans are afraid of such a financial catastrophe. According to a Gallup survey fielded in July 2020, fully 50 percent of the public is concerned/extremely concerned that a major health event in their household could lead to bankruptcy. In 2019, a smaller 45 percent felt this way. 

Those most likely to be concerned/extremely concerned about bankruptcy due to a major health event are people under age 50 (55 percent) and non-whites (64 percent). Since 2019, the fear of bankruptcy has grown the most for these two groups as well—up 12 percentage points for non-whites, up 12 percentage points for 18-to-29-year-olds, and up 9 percentage points for 30-to-49-year-olds. Those least concerned with going bankrupt due to medical bills are people aged 65-plus (40 percent). Thanks, Medicare!

Overall, 15 percent of Americans have medical debt they will be unable to pay off in the next 12 months. Those most likely to have long-term medical debt are non-whites (20 percent), and households with incomes below $40,000 (28 percent). 

"The sharp rise in U.S. healthcare costs, which was already a significant problem for Americans before the Covid-19 pandemic, has only been exacerbated by new challenges presented by the outbreak," Gallup concludes.

Source: Gallup, 50% in U.S. Fear Bankruptcy Due to Major Health Event

Missing the Arts

Millions of Americans are missing the arts. It has been more than six months since the public has been free to attend art festivals, live music performances, plays, musicals, dance recitals and other in-person art events. This is a big loss for all of us. 

Just how big is revealed by a National Endowment for the Arts analysis of the 2017 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts. The NEA study analyzed attendance at in-person art events by generation, revealing widespread devotion to the arts regardless of age. The majority of Gen Zers, Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers attend at least one in-person art event during a year's time. On average, these arts aficionados attend three events a year...

Percent reporting attendance at in-person art events in the past year (and average annual number of events participated in by attendees)
65% of Gen Zers (3.1)
59% of Millennials (2.9)
55% of Gen Xers (3.0)
53% of Boomers (2.9)
41% of Silent Generation (2.7)

Note: Generation Z was 18 to 20 in 2017. Millennials were 21 to 36. Generation X was 37 to 52. Boomers were 53 to 71. The Silent Generation was 72 to 89.

The 2017 survey also explored the reasons for attending arts events and the barriers preventing attendance. Wanting to spend time with family or friends was the top reason for attending an in-person art event—cited by 82 percent of attendees. The biggest barrier to attendance was a lack of time. Those were the good old days.   

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, 2017 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, Why We Engage: Attending, Creating, and Performing Art

Is Crime a Problem? Not in My Neighborhood

The nation's violent crime rate has plummeted over the decades—falling by more than 50 percent since the early 1990s, according to FBI data. Nevertheless, Gallup surveys continue to show that the majority of Americans think crime is a very/extremely serious problem in the United States. But when Gallup asks the public about crime in their local area, then it isn't such a big problem. Only 13 percent of the public says crime is a very/extremely serious problem in their area. 

President Trump claims crime is rampant in cities such as New York and Chicago. But the people who live in these and other cities don't think so. According to recently released results from the 2019 American Housing Survey, 94 percent of all Americans disagree with the statement, "This neighborhood has a lot of serious crime." Among those who live in the suburbs, 97 percent disagree. In nonmetro areas, the figure is 95 percent. In central cities, 89 percent disagree. Even in the nation's 15 largest metropolitan areas, at least 90 percent of residents disagree that there is a lot of serious crime in their neighborhood...

Percent who DISAGREE with the statement, "This neighborhood has a lot of serious crime"

15 Largest Metro Areas
New York	93%
Los Angeles	90%
Chicago	92%
Dallas	95%
Houston	92%
Washington, DC	93%
Miami	94%
Philadelphia	91%
Atlanta	95%
Phoenix	94%
Boston	95%
San Francisco	92%
Riverside	93%
Detroit	94%
Seattle	95%

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 American Housing Survey

Water Accounts for 51% of Nonalcoholic Beverage Consumption

Water accounts for just over half of what American adults drink on an average day (not counting alcoholic beverages). Water is 51.2 percent of nonalcoholic beverage consumption, according to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In second place among beverages is coffee (14.9 percent), followed by sweetened beverages (10.2 percent), tea, (8.7 percent), fruit beverages (5.6 percent), milk (5.5 percent), and diet beverages (3.8 percent). 

Water's share of beverage consumption declines with age while coffee's share increases. Among adults aged 60-plus, coffee accounts for 20.5 percent of daily beverage consumption. This is more than twice coffee's share among young adults...

Percent distribution of nonalcoholic beverage consumption by age, 2015–18

	total	20 to 39	40 to 59	60-plus
Water	51.2%	56.5%	49.3%	46.9%
Coffee	14.9	9.2	16.1	20.5
Sweetened beverages	10.2	13.5	10.4	5.9
Tea	8.7	6.7	9.6	10.3
Fruit beverages	5.6	6.5	5.1	5.2
Milk	5.5	5.0	5.2	6.4
Diet beverages	3.8	2.6	4.4	4.9

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Nonalcoholic Beverage Consumption among Adults: United States, 2015–2018

Median Household Income in 2019: $68,703

Every year demographers anxiously await the Census Bureau's release of income statistics from the Current Population Survey. This year, not so much. In the midst of the Covid-19 Recession, the treasure trove of data has lost much of its predictive power. But still, wow. Median household income soared to a record high of $68,703 in 2019. The median increased by 6.8 percent between 2018 and 2019, after adjusting for inflation. This is the biggest one-year increase in the history of the series dating back to 1967. 

Or is it? Could the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 have caused the outsized increase in median household income in 2019? It doesn't seem possible, but the answer is yes, according to Census Bureau analysts Jonathan Rothbaum and Adam Bee. Here's why... 

The Census Bureau fields the Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey in March of each year, with respondents asked to report their income for the previous year. The income statistics for 2019 were collected in March 2020—in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. Not surprisingly, survey response rates were abnormally low—10 percentage points lower in March 2020 than in the same month of 2019. When Rothbaum and Bee analyzed response rates by demographic characteristic, they discovered that higher-income households were more likely than lower-income households to respond to the CPS during the pandemic. This nonresponse bias inflated the estimate of household income. 

After adjusting for nonresponse bias, median household income in 2019 is an estimated $66,790 rather than the published and official figure of $68,703. The adjustment reduces the 2018–19 increase in median household income to a more modest 3.9 percent rather than 6.8 percent. 

The good news is that median household income in 2019 is still the highest on record, even after the adjustment for nonresponse bias. The 3.9 percent increase in median household income between 2018 and 2019 may not have been the biggest on record, but it was still pretty big—in the 93rd percentile of annual increases. "The adjusted estimates would indicate that 2019 (from the 2020 CPS ASEC) was still a very good year for income," the researchers conclude.

Source: Census Bureau, Coronavirus Infects Surveys, Too: Nonresponse Bias during the Pandemic in the CPS ASEC

A Bigger Stash of Cash

Did your stash of cash grow as the coronavirus pandemic gained strength in the spring of 2020? If you say yes, you're not alone. Americans carried more cash on their person and stored more cash in their home in May 2020 than they did in 2019. 

The Federal Reserve fielded its Diary of Consumer Payment Choice in October 2019, collecting data from a representative sample of the population on the ways Americans pay for things. Two months later, Covid-19 appeared on the worldwide stage, making irrelevant the data collected in October. Rising to the occasion, the Federal Reserve went back into the field and surveyed respondents again in May 2020 to measure changes in payment behavior due to the pandemic. The supplemental survey discovered bigger piles of cash in pockets, purses, and desk drawers. 

The amount of cash the average person carries grew 17 percent between October 2019 and May 2020, the supplemental survey found, rising from $69 to $81. The amount of cash the average person has tucked away in their home, office, or car nearly doubled, growing from $257 to $483. 

The increase in cash holdings "may point to the relief cash can offer in times of uncertainty and to its role as a contingency payment method," the Federal Reserve explains. Cash becomes a security blanket. The emotional rather than practical bond with cash is confirmed by another fact revealed by the supplemental survey. The 63 percent majority of respondents had not used cash to make any in-person payments since March 10, 2020. Most aren't hoarding cash for purchases. They are hoarding cash for protection. 

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Consumer Payments and the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Supplement to the 2020 Findings from the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice

Who Has It Worse: Blacks or Whites?

"It is a lot more difficult to be a Black person in this country than it is to be a White person." Agree or disagree? Overall, just 44 percent of registered voters in the U.S. agree that it is a lot more difficult to be Black, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Another 32 percent say it is a little more difficult, and 23 percent say it is no more difficult. Of course, there are huge differences in opinion by demographic characteristic and political party identification. 

Let's start with race. Among Blacks, fully 81 percent say it is a lot more difficult to be Black than White. Among non-Hispanic whites, just 36 percent feel that way—a gap of 45 percentage points. That's not the biggest attitudinal gap, however. The biggest gap is between Biden and Trump supporters. Among Biden supporters, the 74 percent majority say it is a lot more difficult to be Black. Among Trump supporters, only 9 percent agree—a gap of 65 percentage points. 

Percent of registered voters who think it is a lot more difficult to be Black than White, by generation, 2020 (and 2016)
Millennials: 55% (40%)

Gen Xers: 44% (36%)

Boomers: 37% (32%)

Older Americans: 39% (33%)

Compared with 2016, every generation in 2020 is more likely to think it is a lot harder to be Black than White.  

Source: Pew Research Center, Voters' Attitudes about Race and Gender Are Even More Divided than in 2016

Average Household Spending in 2019: $63,036

Average household spending surpassed $63,000 in 2019—but just barely. The $63,036 spent by the average household in 2019 was 1.1 percent greater than spending in 2018, after adjusting for inflation. Spending in 2019 was the highest ever recorded by the Consumer Expenditure Survey and 12 percent above the post-Great Recession low of $56,077 in 2013. 

That's all ancient history now that the coronavirus pandemic has destroyed millions of jobs and plunged the U.S. into a recession. We will have to wait another year before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Only then will be be able to measure the impact of the Covid-19 Recession on household spending. 

Average household spending, 2006 to 2019 (in 2019 dollars)
2019: $63,036 (record high)

2018: $62,332
2017: $62,643
2015: $60,378
2013: $56,077 (post-Great Recession low)
2010: $56,403
2006: $61,374 (pre-Great Recession record high)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2019 Consumer Expenditure Survey

More than 1 in 10 Adults Take Antidepressants

The use of antidepressant medications is widespread in the United States, with 13.8 percent of adults taking antidepressants in the past 30 days. Women are more than twice as likely to use antidepressants as men—18.6 percent of women versus 8.7 percent of men took antidepressants in the past month, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' 2017–18 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

The use of antidepressants rises with age. Nearly one in four women aged 60 or older took an antidepressant in the past 30 days...

Percent of men using antidepressants in past 30 days, 2015–18

Aged 18 to 39: 5.5%

Aged 40 to 59: 8.4%

Aged 60-plus: 12.8%

Percent of women using antidepressants in past 30 days, 2015–18

Aged 18 to 39: 10.3%

Aged 40 to 59: 20.1%

Aged 60-plus: 24.3%

The use of antidepressants is highest among non-Hispanic whites, with 16.6 percent taking antidepressants in the past month. The figure is 7.8 percent among Blacks, 6.5 percent among Hispanics, and just 2.8 percent among Asians. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Antidepressant Use among Adults: United States, 2015–2018

52% of Young Adults Live with Parents

This is a record high. Young adults (aged 18 to 29) are now more likely to live with their parents than ever measured before—even during the Great Depression, according to Pew Research Center. The coronavirus has driven many young adults back home, says Pew, which analyzed monthly files from the 2020 Current Population Survey. In February 2020, before coronavirus swept through the nation, 47 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds lived with their parents. In July 2020, the 52 percent majority lived with Mom and Dad. 

Young adults are more likely than any other age group to have moved due to coronavirus, according to Pew's previous research. Many moved because their college campus closed. Pew notes, however, that the Current Population Survey already classifies college students who live in on-campus college dorms as living with their parents, so the closure of on-campus college dorms did not contribute to the measured increase in young adults who live with parents. Instead, the increase was fueled by college students in off-campus housing who moved back home. It was also fueled by the many young adults who lost their jobs and could no longer afford to live independently.  

Between February and July, the percentage of young adults who live with their parents increased in every demographic segment. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, the share living with parents climbed from 63 to 71 percent. Among those aged 25 to 29, the figure grew from 26 to 28 percent. Living with parents became more common for both men and women, in every race and Hispanic origin group, in every region, and in both metros and rural areas.

Percent of 18-to-29-year-olds living with parents by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020 (and percentage point increase since February 2020)
Total: 52% (5)

Asians: 51% (6)

Blacks: 55% (4)

Hispanics: 58% (3)

Non-Hispanic whites: 49% (7)

"These new living arrangements may have an impact not just on young adults and their families, but on the U.S. economy overall," says Pew. The housing market may be especially vulnerable to the rise of multigenerational households. Pew has evidence of this, finding that the number of households headed by 18-to-29-year-olds fell by 1.9 million between February and July—a 12 percent drop.

Source: Pew Research Center, A Majority of Young Adults in the U.S. Live with Their Parents for the First Time since the Great Depression

Older Workers Projected To Be 25% of Labor Force

The workforce is getting older as the Baby-Boom generation ages. Workers aged 55 or older will account for one in four workers by 2029, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections, nearly double the share in 1999...

Workers aged 55-plus as a share of the labor force
1999: 12.7%
2009: 18.8%
2019: 23.5%
2029: 25.2%

In 17 states, workers aged 55-plus already account for 25 percent or more of the labor force, according to a BLS analysis of 2019 data. The states with the largest shares of older workers are Vermont (28.8 percent), Maine (28.7 percent), and New Hampshire (28.3 percent). The New England states of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are also above 25 percent, as are the Middle Atlantic states of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Florida, of course, ranks among states with the oldest labor force. But so does Hawaii. The remaining states that make the list are Iowa, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

Fastest Growing Job: Wind Turbine Service Technician

Among the ten fastest-growing occupations in the decade ahead, none is projected to grow faster than wind turbine service technician. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' new projection series examines likely workforce changes in the decade ahead and finds these to be the 10 fastest growing occupations between 2019 and 2029...

10 Fastest Growing Occupations, 2019 to 2029
1. Wind turbine service technician: 60.7%
2. Nurse practitioner: 52.4%
3. Solar photovoltaic installer: 50.5%
4. Statistician: 34.6%
5. Occupational therapy assistant: 34.6%
6. Home health and personal care aide: 33.7%
7. Physical therapist assistant: 32.6%
8. Medical and health services manager: 31.5%
9. Physician assistant: 31.3%
10. Information security analyst: 31.2%

The number of wind turbine service technician jobs is projected to expand by 4,300 in the next 10 years. That's not a lot of jobs, but there weren't many to begin with. So, the percent change in jobs puts wind turbine service technician at the top of the heap. Median annual earnings are $52,910.

Among the 10 fastest growing occupations, home health and personal care aide is projected to gain the largest number of jobs—an impressive 1,159,500 additional jobs over the next 10 years. Median annual earnings are just $25,280.

Of the 10 jobs projected to grow the fastest, physician assistant is the highest paying, with median earnings of $112,260. Two other occupations on the list have median earnings over $100,000—nurse practitioner and medical and health service manager.

Of course, there's a caveat. The BLS states in its news release, "The 2019–29 projections do not include impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic." Since the pandemic may cause structural changes to the economy, the BLS is "developing alternative scenarios for the 2019–29 projection period that encompass possible impacts from the pandemic." Stay tuned.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

50% Increase in Householders Aged 65 to 74

The nation's households are increasingly top heavy. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of households headed by people aged 55 or older grew 28 percent. Households headed by people aged 65 to 74, an age group filling with Boomers, expanded by 50 percent...

Number of households by age of householder, 2010 and 2019 (numbers in 000s)

	2019	2010	percent change
Total households	128,579	117,538	9.4%
Under age 35	26,810	25,490	5.2%
Aged 35 to 54	43,441	46,390	-6.4%
Aged 55 or older	58,328	45,657	27.8%
Aged 55 to 64	24,172	20,387	18.6%
Aged 65 to 74	19,681	13,164	49.5%
Aged 75 or older	14,475	12,106	19.6%

Between 2010 and 2019, the number of households headed by younger adults (under age 35) increased by just 5 percent. Households headed by the middle-aged (35 to 54) fell 6 percent because the small Generation X is in the age group.

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 Current Population Survey

Regional Disparity in Mask Use Shrinks

More Americans are wearing masks "all or most of the time" when in stores or other businesses, according to a Pew Research Center survey. When Pew surveyed the population in June, only 65 percent of adults reported wearing a mask all or most of the time when in a store. By August, a larger 85 percent regularly wore masks.

As coronavirus cases surged during the summer, there were double-digit increases in the regular use of masks in most regions of the country. Consequently, regional differences in mask use have narrowed.

Regions with lowest and highest mask use, June 2020
Lowest: 47% in West North Central states
Highest: 87% in Middle Atlantic states
Difference: 40 percentage points

Regions with lowest and highest mask use August 2020
Lowest: 70% in West North Central states
Highest: 92% in Pacific states
Difference: 22 percentage points

Source: Pew Research Center, More Americans Say They Are Regularly Wearing Masks in Stores and other Businesses

Summer Protests Are Changing (Some) Minds

The summer of protests has moved the needle, but not for everyone. The percentage of Americans who say recent police killings of Black men are just isolated incidents fell to 42 percent in June 2020, down from the 53 percent majority who dismissed such killings in 2015, according to a PRRI survey.

By race, there are still big differences in attitudes. But the gap is narrowing. In June 2020, 50 percent of whites said the killings were isolated incidents, down from 65 percent who felt that way in 2015. Among Blacks, only 16 percent think the killings are isolated incidents, little changed from 2015.

PRRI took a closer look at white attitudes toward racial justice, revealing a stark and growing polarization by political ideology. Here are white responses to four questions in June 2020 by political party identification (and percentage point change since 2015)...

Recent police killings of unarmed Black men are isolated incidents (percent agree)
White Democrats: 19% (-24)
White Republicans: 81% (-4)

Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Black Americans to work their way out of the lower class (percent disagree)
White Democrats: 24% (-19)
White Republicans: 81% (+2)

The Confederate flag is more of a symbol of Southern pride than of racism (percent agree)
White Democrats: 21% (-21)
White Republicans: 85% (+6)

Monuments to Confederates are more symbols of southern pride than of racism (percent agree)
White Democrats: 31% (-18)
White Republican: 93% (+6)

Source: PRRI, Summer Unrest over Racial Injustice Moves the Country, But Not Republicans or White Evangelicals

High School Seniors Are Taking Fewer Risks—Sort of

In many ways, high school seniors are better behaved than they used to be. The results of the 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) show fewer seniors engaging in a number of risky activities. The YRBSS has been tracking the behavior of middle and high school students every two years since 1991, surveying students in public and private schools across the country. Here's a comparison of the behaviors of high school seniors in 2019 with their counterparts in 2009 and 1999...

Percent of high school seniors who engaged in activity, 1999 to 2019

	2019	2009	1999
Drove after drinking*	7.8%	28.2%	37.2%
Currently smoke cigarettes*	9.0	25.2	42.8
Currently drink alcohol*	39.9	51.7	61.7
Currently use marijuana*	28.3	24.6	31.5
Ever had sexual intercourse	56.7	62.3	64.9
Currently sexually active**	42.3	49.1	50.6
Use a computer 3 or more hours per day for something other than school work***	45.5	21.2	–
Watch television 3 or more hours per day***	19.4	–	33.1

Note: – means data not available.

* In past 30 days

** In past 3 months

*** On an average school day

Many fewer high school seniors are smoking cigarettes, with the percentage of current smokers falling from 43 percent in 1999 to just 9 percent in 2019. But 40 percent of 2019 high school seniors reported using e-cigarettes in the past 30 days, making vaping almost as popular as cigarettes were two decades ago.

Many fewer high school seniors report driving after drinking, with the number falling from 37 percent in 1999 to just 8 percent in 2019. But the 59.5 percent majority of 2019 high school seniors say they have texted while driving in the past 30 days, a behavior that can be as dangerous as driving after drinking. 

Nearly half of high school seniors say they use computers (including smartphones, tablets, gaming consoles, etc.) for something other than schoolwork for 3 or more hours a day on an average school day. But many fewer high school seniors are spending a lot of time watching television.

Source: CDC, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System 

Small Business Pulse Survey, Phase 2

It's baaack. Last week the Census Bureau released the first findings from phase 2 of the Small Business Pulse Survey, collected August 9-15. The Small Business Pulse Survey, which is measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on small businesses, was on hiatus for six weeks as the bureau tinkered with questions and prepared for phase 2. Phase 1 of the survey lasted from April 27 to June 27. That was supposed to be the end of the Small Business Pulse Survey, but the coronavirus had other plans. Phase 2 of the survey will collect weekly data from August 9 through October 15. Whether there will be a phase 3 of the survey remains to be seen. Here's a look at some of the new phase 2 questions and answers during the week of August 9-15...

Supply chain problems are common:
"In the last week did this business have any of the following?"
Domestic supplier delays: 29.4%
Delays in delivery/shipping to customers: 18.0%
Difficulty locating alternative domestic suppliers: 12.6%
Production delays at this business: 9.0%
Foreign supplier delays: 10.0%
Difficulty locating alternative foreign suppliers: 3.7%
No supply chain problems: 61.5%

Most businesses are experiencing reduced operating capacity: 
"How would you describe this business's current operating capacity relative to one year ago?"
Decreased: 55.2%
No change: 37.5%
Increased: 7.3%

Physical distancing requirements are limiting operating capacity for many businesses:
"In the last week was this business's operating capacity affected by any of the following?"
Physical distancing of customers: 21.0%
Availability of personal protective equipment and/or related equipment or supplies: 21.0%
Availability of other supplies or inputs used to provide goods or services: 14.4%
Physical distancing of employees: 11.1%
Ability to rehire furloughed or laid off employees and/or hire new employees: 8.6%
Ability of employees to work from home: 3.2%
None of the above: 57.5%

Many businesses say they need to increase sales or obtain financial assistance:
"In the next 6 months, do you think this business will need to do any of the following?"
Increase marketing or sales: 32.8%
Obtain financial assistance or additional capital: 26.8%
Identify and hire new employees: 23.4%
Learn how to better provide for the safety of customers and employees: 19.3%
Identify new supply chain options: 14.1%
Develop online sales or websites: 13.9%
Permanently close this business: 5.5%
None of the above: 32.7%

Both phase 1 and phase 2 of the Small Business Pulse Survey have asked businesses how long it would be before operations return to normal. During the week of August 9-15, the 57 percent majority of small businesses said it would be more than 6 months before a return to normal. This was the highest level of pessimism recorded in any week of the survey.

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

Working Mothers: Unsung Heroes

Back in the good old pre-Covid days of 2019, most preschoolers went to day care. The 59 percent majority of children aged 0 to 5 and not yet in kindergarten participated in regularly scheduled nonparental care at least weekly, according to the Early Childhood Program Participation Survey. Among children whose mother and father worked full-time, 86 percent were in day care in 2019.

Fast forward to today. The coronavirus pandemic is making it all but impossible for many parents to work now that children are at home rather than in day care or at school. How many parents are unable to work because of these child care issues? A lot, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Among adults aged 18 to 64, a substantial 18 percent reported as of mid-July that they were not working because of Covid-19 related child care issues. Among adults aged 25 to 44, almost one in four (24 percent) were not working because of the lack of child care during the pandemic. Among women aged 25 to 44, the figure was 31 percent.

Percent of 25-to-44-year-olds not working due to Covid-19 related child care issues, July 16-21
Total: 18.2%
Men: 11.6%
Women: 30.9%

"Parents are among the unsung heroes of this crisis," notes the Census Bureau. "They have adapted their households and juggled work, children's schooling and other household needs. However, the pandemic uniquely affected mothers' work in formal labor markets."

Source: Census Bureau, Working Moms Bear Brunt of Home Schooling while Working during Covid-19

Only 5% Are Heavy Drinkers?

People lie about how much alcohol they drink, or maybe they just don't remember. This is a well known fact and occurs not just in the United States but in countries around the world. The evidence of underreporting is easily discovered by comparing how much people say they drink with actual alcohol volume sales. One review of these studies found self-reported drinking to be 40 to 60 percent below actual consumption.

With this in mind, consider the latest data on drinking in the United States. Overall, 66 percent of adults aged 18 or older reported consuming alcohol in the past year, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' 2018 National Health Interview Survey. The NCHS calculates alcohol consumption using two questions. First, the 66 percent of respondents who are drinkers are asked how often they drink. Then they are asked, "In the past year, on those days that you drank alcoholic beverages, on the average, how many drinks did you have?" Based on the answers to those two questions, the government calculates how much alcohol men and women consume in an average week. Men who drink more than 14 alcoholic drinks a week and women who drink more than 7 are classified as heavy drinkers. An alcoholic drink is defined as one 12-ounce beer, one 5-ounce glass of wine, or 1.5 ounces of liquor.

According to the calculations based on these self-reports, only 5.0 percent of men aged 18 or older drink more than 14 alcoholic drinks a week. Only 5.2 percent of women drink more than 7 drinks a week.  If you think this is an understatement, it most certainly is.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Heavy Drinking among U.S. Adults, 2018

36% of Kids Eat Fast Food on an Average Day

Fast food is a big part of the daily diet of American children. On an average day in 2015–18, more than one-third of children aged 2 to 19 (36 percent) ate fast food, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The survey is an in-person interview asking a nationally representative sample of respondents (or, in the case of children, their parents) to recall their food intake over the past 24 hours. The survey defines fast food as food sourced from a fast-food or pizza restaurant.

Overall, fast food accounted for 14 percent of children's daily calorie intake in 2015–18. It accounts for a greater percentage of daily calories among teens aged 12 to 19 (17 percent) than among children aged 2 to 11 (11 percent). By race and Hispanic origin, fast food accounts for 21.5 percent of daily calorie intake for Blacks teens, the most of any demographic segment. Among Hispanic teens, the figure is 18.5 percent, and among non-Hispanic whites 14.8 percent.

Fast food consumption of children aged 2 to 19, average day 2015–18
64% consumed no fast food
11% consumed less than 25 percent of calories from fast food
14% consumed 25 to 45 percent of calories from fast food
11% consumed over 45 percent of calories from fast food

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Fast Food Intake among Children and Adolescents in the United States, 2015–2018

Creative Economy Sheds Jobs

Read it and weep: a Brookings analysis of the effects of Covid-19 on the nation's creative economy is not for the faint of heart. The assessment, undertaken by Richard Florida of the University of Toronto and Michael Seman of Colorado State University, measures the extent of Covid-19 job and revenue losses for arts industries and occupations from April 1 to July 31, 2020. The findings are grim...

• Creative industries—such as music, film, design, advertising, and theater—lost 2.7 million jobs (31 percent) and $150 billion in sales of goods and services (9 percent) from April through July. 
• Fine and performing arts industries lost 50 percent of their jobs. 
• Creative occupations—such as musician, artist, performer, and designer—shed 2.3 million jobs (30 percent) and 15 percent of total average monthly wages.
• By state, California is in the lead in absolute numbers of jobs lost and revenue foregone. But as a percentage of jobs lost, smaller states have bigger losses. Seven states—Alaska, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming, Maryland, Vermont, and Maine—have lost more than one-third of their creative industry jobs.
• Among metropolitan areas, New York and Los Angeles lost the most creative industry and creative occupation jobs. But in percentage terms, the losses are much greater in smaller metros. Las Vegas lost 36 percent of its creative industry jobs from April through July, 2020. Other metros where creative industry jobs fell by more than one-third are Nashville, Tucson, New Orleans, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Richmond.

To prevent further damage to the nation's arts culture and economy, Florida and Seman recommend a "substantial and sustained national creative-economy recovery strategy." Without such an effort, every region, state, and metro will be diminished culturally and economically. "Arts, culture, and creativity are one of three key sectors (along with science and technology as well as business and management) that drive regional economies," conclude Florida and Seman. "Any lasting damage to the creative sector will drastically undercut our culture, well-being, and quality of life."

Source: Brookings Institution, Lost Art: Measuring Covid-19's Devastating Impact on America's Creative Economy

"Elevated Levels of Adverse Mental Health Conditions"

The evidence of mental health trauma is piling up. A survey by the CDC found "elevated levels" of mental anguish due to the stress of the coronavirus pandemic. Overall, 41 percent of Americans have experienced one or more adverse mental or behavioral symptoms because of the pandemic.

The CDC fielded the survey June 24-30. The survey's questions assessed symptoms of anxiety, depression, trauma or stress-related disorder, increased substance use, and suicidal thoughts. Here are the findings...

Percent of Americans with adverse mental health conditions, June 24-30
25.5% have an anxiety disorder
24.3% have a depressive disorder
26.3% have trauma or stress related disorder
13.3% had started/increased substance use
10.7% had considered suicide in the past 30 days

These numbers are not normal. "The prevalence of symptoms of anxiety disorder was approximately three times those reported in the second quarter of 2019 (25.5% versus 8.1%)," the CDC reports. "Prevalence of depressive disorder was approximately four times that reported in the second quarter of 2019 (24.3% versus 6.5%)." The percentage of respondents who had seriously considered suicide in the past 30 days climbed from 4.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019 to the 10.7 percent of June 2020.

Younger adults are faring the worst. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, fully 75 percent exhibited at least once adverse mental or behavioral health symptom, as did 52 percent of those aged 25 to 44. The figure was 29.5 percent among 45-to-64-year-olds and 15 percent among people aged 65 or older.

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation during the Covid-19 Pandemic—United States, June 24–30, 2020

Hispanic, Latino, or Latinx?

What do Americans whose ancestry is rooted in Latin America and Spain prefer to call themselves? This might be a good time to find out since the new term, Latinx, is now being bandied about, an alternative to the commonly used terms Hispanic and Latino.

The preferred term is Hispanic, according to a Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. Fully 61 percent of the Hispanic population prefers the term Hispanic. Another 20 percent prefer the term Latino, and just 4 percent opt for Latinx.

But wait. Most Hispanics have never heard of the term Latinx, which has been introduced recently as a gender-neutral alternative for Latino. Only 23 percent of Hispanics have heard of it. Even among those who are aware of the term Latinx, however, just 10 percent prefer it. Fully 50 percent of Hispanics who have heard of Latinx prefer the term Hispanic, and 31 percent prefer Latino.

Source: Pew Research Center, About One-in-Four U.S. Hispanics Have Heard of Latinx, but just 3% Use It

Why Parents Are Tearing Their Hair Out

Modern American parents do not devote all that much time to child care. Instead, they depend on day care providers, schools, and extracurricular activities to do much of the heavy lifting. Or, they used to. Parents, more than any other segment of the population, have had their daily lives turned upside down by the coronavirus.

Consider the time use of parents before the pandemic. On an average day in 2019, parents with children under age 18 spent only 1.36 hours a day caring for their children as a primary activity (their main activity), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. Mothers spent 1.74 hours a day and fathers 0.91 hours a day caring for children.

Before coronavirus, few parents spent any time engaged in education-related activities with children. Parents devoted only 0.11 hours (less than 7 minutes) to their child's educational activities on an average day in 2019. Most parents did not engage in education-related activities with their children at all, according to a BLS analysis of time use data from 2015–19. For married parents, here are the percentages who participated in education-related activities with their children on an average day...

Married parents engaging in education-related activities with children, average day 2015–19
  5.2% of fathers with full-time jobs
  9.2% of mothers with full-time jobs
18.2% of mothers with part-time jobs
19.4% of mothers who are not employed

Now imagine how many parents are engaged in education-related activities with their children on an average day in 2020 and how much time they are devoting to it.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Hours Per Day Parents Spent Caring for and Helping Household Children as Their Main Activity

Praying Away the Coronavirus

Most Americans say they are using prayer as a way to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. The 55 percent majority of the public reports praying at least weekly as a way to cope, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The percentage who say they pray daily as a coping mechanism (43 percent) far surpasses the percentage who say they never pray (31 percent). Older adults are most likely to use prayer to help them cope with the pandemic...

Percent who pray at least weekly to help cope with the coronavirus outbreak
Aged 18 to 29: 38%
Aged 30 to 49: 51%
Aged 50 to 64: 64%
Aged 65-plus: 67%

Younger adults are more likely to exercise than pray as a way to cope with the pandemic, with 61 to 62 percent of people under age 50 engaging in exercise as a coping mechanism at least once a week. Adults aged 50 or older depend on prayer and exercise about equally.

Regardless of age, watching TV is the number-one coping mechanism, followed by spending time outdoors. Fully 89 percent of the public reports watching TV or movies at least weekly to get through these strange days, and 84 percent report spending time outdoors.

Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Adults Regularly Turn to a Variety of Activities to Help Cope with Coronavirus Outbreak

Most Are Not Comfortable Flying

The majority of Americans currently do not feel comfortable flying, according to a Gallup survey. Gallup asked people aged 18 or older who had flown in the past year whether they are "currently comfortable" taking a flight. The 52 percent majority said no. Here are the numbers by age...

Not comfortable flying at all
Aged 18 to 34: 33%
Aged 35 to 54: 51%
Aged 55 or older: 69%

These numbers are bad news for the airline industry. Americans aged 55 or older—those most afraid to fly—account for 44 percent of all household spending on air fares, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey. "Differences in comfort level by age group might be expected given that older adults are more vulnerable to severe illness from Covid-19," says Gallup. "But the extent of those differences is especially noteworthy given that baby boomers and retirees are important market segments for leisure travel."

Half of 35-to-54-year-olds are afraid to fly as well. This age group accounts for another 40 percent of household spending on airline fares. The 18-to-34 age group is the one least afraid to fly, but it accounts for just 16 percent of spending on air travel.

Source: Gallup, 52% of U.S. Air Travelers Now Uncomfortable Flying; and Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey

One-Third of Renters Unsure about Ability to Pay Rent

One-third of the nation's renters told the Census Bureau that they had no or only slight confidence in their ability to pay next month's rent. The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey has been measuring the impact of the coronavirus on American households each week since early May. The latest results (collected during the week of July 16-21) show many of the nation's renters risking eviction as Covid relief benefits run out. Here are the demographics of those who may not be able to make their next rent payment...

Percent of renters with no/only slight confidence in ability to pay next month's rent (July 16-21)
33% of all renters

29% of those aged 18 to 24
36% of those aged 25 to 39
39% of those aged 40 to 54
28% of those aged 55 to 64
13% of those aged 65-plus

22% of non-Hispanic whites
27% of Asians
42% of Blacks
49% of Hispanics

43% of households with children under age 18

Source: Census Bureau, Week 12 Household Pulse Survey: July 16-21

What Parents Want

Only 36 percent of parents want full-time in-person schooling to resume in the upcoming school year, according to a Gallup survey. As school start dates approach and Covid-19 infections surge, the percentage of parents who support full-time in-person instruction has dropped precipitously since June, when the 56 percent majority of parents supported traditional instruction.

Parents' preferences for the resumption of school (July 13-27)
Full-time in person school: 36%
Part-time in-person/part-time remote: 36%
Full-time remote instruction: 28%

Behind the 20 percentage-point drop in support of full-time in-person instruction are parents' growing fears that their children will become infected with Covid-19. Between June and July, the percentage of parents who are somewhat/very worried about their child becoming infected climbed from 46 to 64 percent. This growing fear explains the 21 percentage-point increase in parents' preference for full-time remote instruction, which rose from just 7 percent in June to the 28 percent of July. There was almost no change in the percentage of parents who favor a mix of in-person and remote schooling.

Republicans are far less concerned than Democrats about their children going back to school. Among parents who are Democrats, only 13 percent favor full-time in-person schooling. Among parents who are Republicans, 68 percent favor traditional instruction.

Source: Gallup, Fewer U.S. Parents Want Full-Time In-Person Fall Schooling

Why Nursing Homes Are Covid Hot Spots

Nursing homes account for a disproportionate share of Covid-19 cases and deaths. Covid outbreaks continue to plague nursing homes despite visitor restrictions that began in mid-March. Why are nursing homes such hot spots? A National Bureau of Economic Research study may have the answer: staff linkages.

In a unique study, NBER researchers analyzed the geolocation data of more than 500,000 smartphones observed in at least one of 15,000 nursing homes during the six weeks following the nationwide nursing home visitor restrictions that went into effect March 13. Since visitors were no longer allowed into nursing homes, most of these smartphones belonged to staff. The goal of the study was to discover how interconnected nursing homes are through their staff. Very connected: "We find that 7 percent of individuals entering a nursing home also entered at least one other nursing home in the six-week period," the researchers report. The average nursing home, in fact, has connections with 15 other nursing homes. There are a number of reasons for this high level of connectivity. One, most nursing homes rely on staffing agencies to fill some of their staffing needs, which can vary from day to day. Two, nursing home workers may work at multiple facilities and many do. Three, hospice workers and other specialists travel to multiple nursing homes.

"Eliminating staff linkages between nursing homes could reduce Covid-19 infections in nursing homes by 44 percent," the researchers estimate. "These results provide evidence of the magnitude of the benefits that would derive from compensating nursing home workers to work at only one home and limiting cross-traffic across homes," they conclude.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Nursing Home Staff Networks and Covid-19, Working Paper #27608

Teleworking During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Nearly one-third of the nation's employed workers told the Bureau of Labor Statistics in June that they had teleworked or worked at home for pay at any time during the past four weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic. This hefty figure does not include those who usually work from home or those who teleworked for a reason unrelated to the pandemic.

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has added five questions to the monthly Current Population Survey, which collects the government's official employment data. The BLS first added the questions in May and plans to continue asking them each month for the foreseeable future. Besides teleworking, respondents are also being asked whether they are unable to work because their employer has closed or lost business, whether they are being paid if they are missing work, and whether the pandemic has prevented them from looking for a job.

The 31 percent who reported teleworking in June was little different from the 35 percent who said they had done so in May. The characteristics of those who are teleworking because of the pandemic are not surprising, but nevertheless striking. Teleworking rises steeply as education increases...

Percent of the employed who teleworked for pay in the past 4 weeks due to the coronavirus, by education, June 2020
  4.8% of those without a high school diploma
12.6% of high school graduates only
22.3% of those with some college
48.0% of those with a bachelor's degree
63.3% of those with a graduate degree

By race and Hispanic origin, Asians are far more likely to telework than other race and Hispanic origin groups. This is because Asians are the most educated workers and also the ones most likely to work in management and professional occupations. Hispanics are least likely to telework because they are the least-educated workers and also least likely to be managers or professionals...

Percent of the employed who teleworked for pay in the past 4 weeks due to the coronavirus, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2020
48.5% of Asians
30.8% of non-Hispanic whites
25.7% of Blacks
21.1% of Hispanics

By age, there are few differences in teleworking with one exception. Workers under age 25 are far less likely to telework (15 percent) than those aged 25 to 54 (35 percent) or  aged 55 or older (30 percent).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Supplemental Data Measuring the Effects of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Pandemic on the Labor Market