Vaccination Rates by Demographic Characteristic

How many Americans have received at least the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine? The Census Bureau recently added this question to its biweekly Household Pulse Survey. As of January 6-18, the answer is 8 percent, with some variation by demographic characteristic.

Age: The vaccination rate is lowest among 18 to 24 year olds (3 percent) and peaks at 9 percent among people aged 40 to 64. Among those aged 65 or older, 7 percent have gotten at least a first shot.

Sex: Women are more likely to have received a dose (9 percent) than men (6 percent). 

Race and Hispanic origin: Asians are most likely to have received at least one dose of vaccine (13 percent).  The rate is 8 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 6 percent for Blacks and Hispanics. 

Education: The vaccination rate rises with education. Only 4 percent of those with no more than a high school diploma have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine. The figure rises to 8 percent among people with some college or an associate's degree and 12 percent among those with a bachelor's degree or more education.

Household income: Those living in households with an income of $100,000 or more are most likely to have received at least one dose of the vaccine (11 to 13 percent). Among those with a household income below $25,000, just 3 percent have gotten a shot. 

The fact that medical workers were first in line for the vaccines—many of whom are highly educated and well paid—is one reason for the differences in vaccination rates by education and income. In the weeks to come, we should see rising rates in all demographic segments.

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey: January 6—January 18

How Many Americans Are Receptive to Fascism?

One of the questions on the personality test that probes for vulnerability to fascism (the F-Scale) is this: "Obedience and respect for authority are the most important virtues children should learn." Agreement with this statement is one sign of receptivity to fascism.

The General Social Survey (GSS) has been asking the American public a similar question every year or two since 1986: Here it is: "How important is it for a child to learn to obey to prepare him or her for life?" 

One in 10 Americans told GSS interviewers in 2018 that obedience was the most important thing for a child to learn to prepare him or her for life. (The other options were learning to work hard, learning to help others, learning to think for themselves, or learning to be popular.) Here are the percentages who chose obedience as the most important thing by age group...

Obedience is the most important thing for a child to learn, 2018 (and 1986)

Aged 18 to 44: 8% (19%)

Aged 45 to 64: 10% (28%)

Aged 65-plus: 13% (32%)

The public may be less receptive to fascism today than it was several decades ago. The first year the GSS asked this question in 1986, a much larger 23 percent of Americans named obedience as the single most important thing a child needed to learn.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

Predictions about the Housing Market

The housing market is in a frenzy because of the coronavirus pandemic. The housing inventory is at a record low of 380,000—48 percent below what it was one year ago, according to Calculated Risk. Because of the scarce supply, housing prices are going through the roof—13 percent higher in December 2020 than one year earlier, according to Realtor.com. 

Don't expect this much exuberance in the housing market in the years and decades to come. According to a research report by Laurie Goodman and Jun Zhu of the Urban Institute, household formation will be relatively slow and homeownership will decline over the next two decades. In the report, Goodman and Zhu project household formation and homeownership through 2040 by age, race, and Hispanic origin. Here are some of their findings...

• Household formation will continue at a modest pace. Between 1990 and 2010, the nation gained a net of 12.4 million households in each decade. The number dropped to just 7.3 million between 2010 and 2020. While household formation in the decade ahead will exceed this slow pace, it will fall far below the heady days of the 1990s and 2000s. The projections show the formation of 8.5 million new households during the 2020s followed by an additional 7.6 million in the 2030s. The number of renter households will grow twice as fast as the number of owner households.
• Homeownership will decline for nearly all age, race, and Hispanic origin groups through 2040. The study projects a decline in the overall homeownership rate from 64 percent in 2018 to 62 percent in 2040. Those likely to be hit the hardest are Black households headed by 45-to-74-year-olds. "If current policies stay the same, the Black homeownership rate will fall well below the rate of previous generations at the same age and result in an unprecedented number of Black renters over 65," say Goodman and Zhu. 
• Between 2020 and 2040, all net new homeowners will be nonwhite. The number of Hispanic homeowners is projected to increase by 4.8 million, Asian by 2.7 million, and Black by 1.2 million. The number of non-Hispanic white homeowners will decline by 1.8 million during those years. 

Source: Urban Institute, The Future of Headship and Homeownership

Biggest Job Declines, 2019 to 2029

Which occupation is going to shed the most jobs over the next decade? Just as the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the occupations likely to grow the most, it also identifies those likely to experience the largest job losses. Here are some of those occupations...

Occupations ranking among the 30 with the largest projected job decline, 2019 to 2029

1. Cashiers

2. Secretaries

9. Cooks, fast food

10. Tellers

14. Customer service representatives

16. Postal service mail carriers

21. Correctional officers

23. Chief executives

25. Retail salespersons

28. Travel agents

30. Computer programmers

Cashier is the occupation likely to lose the most jobs in the decade ahead as online sales and self-checkout eliminate the need for staff. The number of cashiers is projected to decline by 265,000 during the next decade. That still leaves a lot of cashiers in the workforce—more than 3 million in 2029—because cashier is one of the largest occupations. Secretaries, tellers, retail salespersons, travel agents, and computer programmers are also on the list of biggest losers because of technological change. No surprises there. But what's up with chief executives? The number of chief executives is projected to decline by 10 percent, falling from 288,000 in 2019 to 259,000 in 2029. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections, Occupations with the Largest Job Declines

Where Americans Get Their News

Digital devices are the news source for the great majority of Americans. Fully 86 percent of the public "sometimes" or "often" gets news from a smartphone, computer, or tablet, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The 60 percent majority "often" gets news from these digital devices. 

Percent getting news sometimes/often from...

Digital devices: 86%

Television: 68%

Radio: 50%

Print: 32%

Not only is digital the primary platform for getting news, but people prefer it that way. When asked which platform they prefer as a news source, 52 percent say digital devices, 35 percent say television, 7 percent radio, and 5 percent print.

Source: Pew Research Center, More than Eight-in-Ten Americans Get News from Digital Devices

Small Business Pulse Survey Takes a Hiatus

Jobs are disappearing, unemployment claims are surging, the pandemic is raging. In the midst of this turmoil, the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey is going on hiatus. Following the release of data collected during the week of January 4 through January 10, the survey is taking a pause. Check back in February for information about future releases of the survey, the Census Bureau says. 

The Small Business Pulse Survey has been measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the nation's small businesses. The bureau fielded the first survey in late April (April 26 through May 2) and continued collecting data weekly through June. The pandemic was supposed to be over by then. It wasn't. Phase 2 of the Small Business Pulse Survey began in early August and ended in mid-October. The pandemic still wasn't over. Phase 3 of the Small Business Pulse Survey began in mid-November and ended on January 10. "The data collection period for the Small Business Pulse Survey is now closed," reports the  Census Bureau on the survey's web page. 

Here are some of the findings from the last week of the survey, January 4-10...

• 75 percent of small businesses say the coronavirus pandemic has had a moderate to large negative effect on them, including 90 percent of businesses in accommodation and food service.
• 40 percent of small businesses say their revenues have fallen in the past week, including 56 percent of those in accommodation and food service.
• 12 percent of small businesses say they have reduced their paid employees in the past week, including 27 percent of those in accommodation and food service.
• 55 percent of small businesses say their business operations will not return to normal for more than six months, will never return to normal, or the business has permanently closed. Among businesses in accommodation and food service, 77 percent report this level of pessimism. 

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

Life Expectancy to Drop by More than 1 Year

Whenever life expectancy declines in the United States, it's a big deal. In the past 50 years, the National Center for Health Statistics has measured only four annual declines in life expectancy at birth, all of them small, ranging from a drop of 0.1 years to 0.3 years. 

Brace yourself: Because of Covid-19, life expectancy is projected to drop by 1.13 years in 2020, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). This is a very big deal. 

There's more. The PNAS study was undertaken months ago, and its projections are based on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) medium scenario of Covid deaths produced in early October. At that time, the medium scenario forecast a total of 321,000 Covid deaths. In fact, Covid killed 344,000 people in 2020, according to the CDC. This larger number is close to IHME's high scenario estimate of 348,000 deaths by the end of the year. The high scenario means an even larger life expectancy decline in 2020, according to the PNAS study—a drop of 1.22 years.

There's even more. Because of Covid's disproportionate impact on people of color, the life expectancy decline will be much greater for Blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic Whites. Under the medium death scenario, Hispanic life expectancy at birth in 2020 is projected to decline by 3.05 years, Black by 2.10 years, and non-Hispanic white by 0.68 years. 

"One of the many very distressing consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic is an estimated 39% increase in the Black-White life expectancy gap," note the study's authors. The life expectancy decline will also reduce what is called the Hispanic paradox (the longer life expectancy of Hispanics versus non-Hispanic whites) by more than 70 percent, the authors report.

Is the projected 2020 life expectancy decline just a blip or will it be long lasting? The study's authors are doubtful the decline is just a blip. "A rapid return to pre-Covid-19 life expectancy is unlikely," they conclude. Covid-19 deaths are continuing to mount. Also, say the authors, there are "the long-term detrimental health impacts for those who recovered from the virus, deaths from other health conditions that were precipitated by Covid-19, and social and economic losses resulting from the pandemic."

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Reductions in 2020 US Life Expectancy Due to Covid-19 and the Disproportionate Impact on the Black and Latino Populations

20% Increase in the Mortality Rate

File this story in the Not Surprising But Still Shocking category: the age-adjusted mortality rate in the United States in the second quarter of 2020 (April, May, June) was a stunning 20 percent higher than the age-adjusted mortality rate in the second quarter of 2019, the National Center for Health Statistics reports. 

There were 840 deaths per 100,000 population in the second quarter of 2020, NCHS reports, compared with 702 deaths per 100,000 population in April, May, and June of 2019—a 19.7 percent increase. 

Percent change in 2nd quarter mortality rate by age group, 2019–20 

Age 1 to 4:   -12.9%

Age 5 to 14:   -0.7%

Age 15 to 24: 21.4%

Age 25 to 34: 30.1%

Age 35 to 44: 29.3%

Age 45 to 54: 26.3%

Age 55 to 64: 20.6%

Age 65 to 74: 19.1%

Age 75 to 84: 17.4%

Age 85-plus:  19.4%

Children under age 15 were the only ones spared. Every other age group experienced a double-digit rise as Covid-19 deaths mounted in the spring of 2020. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Mortality Dashboard

"Unprecedented Demographic Stagnation"

You don't have to wait for 2020 census results to know the big trends of the past decade. That's because demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution has revealed the biggies in a recent report. According to Frey, this is what the 2020 census will show...

1. "Unprecedented stagnation in population growth," says Frey. The 2010s are likely to have been the decade with the slowest population growth in U.S. history. Until the 2010s, the U.S. was one of the fastest growing countries in the industrialized world.

2. Ongoing decline in geographic mobility. The annual mobility rate has been falling through most of the 2010s, reaching an all-time low of 9.3 percent in 2019–20. While the coronavirus pandemic may boost mobility temporarily, Frey thinks it will then resume its long-term decline.

3. The continued aging of the population, thanks to the Baby-Boom generation. 

4. "A first-time decline in the nation's white population," Frey predicts for the 2010s, largely due to the fact that whites are older than other race groups. "This means that other racial and ethnic groups are responsible for generating overall population growth," says Frey.

5. Great diversity in the Millennial and younger generations compared to Boomers and older Americans. "The generational divide in diversity...has impacted politics in ways that are sometimes divisive," Frey notes.

The biggest trend to be revealed by the 2020 census, according to Frey, is this: the nation is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation. One way to break out of the stagnation is to increase immigration, he says. "Given our rapidly aging native-born population, immigration will ensure growth—especially among the critical youth and labor force populations."

Source: Brookings, What the 2020 Census Will Reveal about America; Stagnating Growth, an Aging Population, and Youthful Diversity

Houston, We Have a Problem

"Because things have gotten so far off track in this country, we need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right." Do you agree or disagree? 

A substantial 44 percent of Americans "mostly" or "completely" agree with the statement, according to PRRI's 2020 American Values Survey. The survey was fielded last September, well before the January 6 Trump insurrection. Here is the percentage who agree by political affiliation...

We need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right (percent mostly/completely agreeing)

57% of Republicans

43% of independents

36% of Democrats

With so many Americans willing to take a wrecking ball to law and order, the Trump insurrection was inevitable.

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

31% Expect to Lose Employment Income Soon

The coronavirus pandemic is getting worse. Daily new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are at all-time highs. The vaccine rollout is fatally slow. Cold weather and the winter surge has driven the public back into hiding. It should have come as no surprise, then, that nonfarm payroll employment fell by 140,000 in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the first decline in payroll employment since April. 

It also should come as no surprise that a growing share of the public expects to lose employment income in the next four weeks (personally, or someone in their household). Thirty-one percent of Americans aged 18 or older have been telling the Census Bureau since mid-November that they expect to lose employment income soon, according to the Household Pulse Survey fielded December 9-21. The December job numbers prove them right.

Expect self or household member to lose employment income in next 4 weeks

Nov 11-Dec 21: 31% 

Sept 30-Oct 26: 24% (low)

April 23-May 5: 39% (high)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey

Record Low Household Growth in 2010s

The number of households in the United States grew by only 9.3 percent over the past 10 years—from 118 million in 2010 to 128 million in 2020. This is the slowest household growth on record, capped off by the first ever annual decline in households between 2019 and 2020. 

Number of households, 2010 and 2020 (in 000s)

	2020	2010	percent change
Total households	128,451	117,538	9.3%
With children under 18	33,464	35,218	-5.0

The number of households with children under age 18 fell by nearly 1.8 million during the decade. Behind the decline is the ongoing baby-bust, which is predicted to deepen as coronavirus further reduces births. 

Source: Census Bureau, Families & Living Arrangements

Delusions of Grandeur

"How would you describe your own personal weight situation right now?" When asked this question, only 41 percent of the American public admits to being overweight, according to a 2020 Gallup survey. 

The National Center for Health Statistics would beg to disagree. According to the measured height and weight of a representative sample of the population, nearly three out of four American adults are overweight...

Percent who are overweight

Fantasy: 41%

Reality: 73%

Men reported weighing an average of 200 pounds, Gallup notes. Women reported weighing 162 pounds. Men are right on the money. The National Center for Health Statistics measures men's average weight at 198 pounds. Women are shy of the mark, however. Their measured weight is an average of 171 pounds—significantly greater than their self-reported 162.

The percentage of men who want to lose weight and are seriously trying to do so was unchanged in 2020, Gallup reports. Not so for women. Although the 59 percent majority of women would like to lose weight, just 23 percent said they had been seriously trying to do so in the past year—the smallest percentage on record. 

Source: Gallup, Americans' Average Weight Holds Steady in 2020

Out-of-Pocket Drug Costs Plummet

Out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs has fallen steeply over the past decade. In 2018, those who purchased retail prescription drugs spent a median of $54 for them—42 percent less than the $93 spent in 2009, after adjusting for inflation.

An analysis of retail prescription drug spending based on data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey shows that out-of-pocket spending fell not just at the median, but at every point in the distribution of spending. Even those who spend the most on prescription drugs saw their out-of-pocket costs fall substantially. Those whose spending on retail prescription drugs is at the 95th percentile, for example, saw their annual out-of-pocket costs fall from $1,369 to $945 between 2009 and 2018—a 31 percent decline, after adjusting for inflation. 

Among people aged 65 or older, out-of-pocket spending on retail prescription drugs fell for those on Medicare Part D, for those with private drug insurance, and even for without prescription drug insurance. Older Americans covered by Medicare Part D spent a median of $160 on retail prescription drugs in 2018, down from $341 in 2009, after adjusting for inflation. The elderly with no drug coverage saw their median annual spending fall from $318 in 2009 to $177 in 2018. 

"In recent years overall affordability of retail prescription drugs has not deteriorated, and may have improved," the analysis concludes. 

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Out-of-Pocket Spending for Retail Prescribed Drugs by Age and Type of Prescription Drug Coverage, 2009 to 2018

Third Leading Cause of Death

On February 29, 2020, the CDC logged the first Covid-19 death in the United States. The next day, no one died from Covid—the last day without a Covid death this year. The cumulative number of deaths from Covid-19 topped 1,000 on March 26. They exceeded 10,000 on April 6. On April 23, Covid-19 became a leading cause of death in the United States. 

The National Center for Health Statistics tracks leading causes of death, compiling the top-10 list each year. We will have to wait a while before the top-10 list of 2020 is released, but we already know Covid-19—a cause of death unknown a year ago—will be near the top of the list. It will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States.

10 Leading Causes of Death in 2019

Total deaths	2,854,838
1. Diseases of heart	659,041
2. Malignant neoplasms	599,601
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries)	173,040
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases	156,979
5. Cerebrovascular diseases	150,005
6. Alzheimer disease	121,499
7. Diabetes mellitus	87,647
8. Nephritis	51,565
9. Influenza and pneumonia	49,783
10. Suicide	47,511

Let's see how the Covid-19 death count compares to the 10 leading causes of death in 2019. April 23 marks Covid's first appearance on the top-10 list. On that day, the cumulative number of Covid deaths in the U.S. surpassed the 47,511 suicides of 2019. The very next day, they exceeded the 49,783 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia. The day after that, they topped the 51,565 deaths from nephritis. So, in just three days in April, Covid not only made it onto the top-10 list, but had become the 8th leading cause of death. 

It didn't stop there. On May 16, Covid deaths surpassed those from diabetes, becoming the 7th leading cause of death. On June 24, Covid climbed into 6th place; on July 29th 5th place; on August 5th 4th place. A couple weeks later, on August 20, Covid-19 became the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States when the 173,490 cumulative Covid deaths surpassed the 173,040 deaths from accidents. 

On December 31, 2020, the CDC logged 3,298 deaths from Covid-19. The cumulative total for the year: 344,497, solidly in 3rd place as a cause of death. Let's hope Covid-19 is much lower on the list in 2021.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2019 and CDC Covid Data Tracker

Happy Holidays!

 Demo Memo is taking a holiday break. See you on January 4, 2021. 

2020 Comes to a Close

The year 2020 is coming to a close. Although this terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year is almost over, it will live in infamy as historians examine the many ways the pandemic has pummeled us. One of the best resources historians will have is the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Since late April, the bureau has surveyed households every week or two, probing the impact of the pandemic on Americans' wellbeing. Here are some of the latest findings, collected November 25-December 7.

Children's lives have been upended. Among adults in households with children in public or private school, 89 percent report that their child's classes in the 2020–21 school year are in a distance learning format.

College plans have been cancelled. Among adults in households where at least one adult was planning on taking postsecondary classes this fall, more than one-third cancelled their plans to take classes. 

Nearly half of Americans have lost money. Fully 48 percent of people aged 18 or older report that they or someone in their household experienced a loss of employment income since March 13, 2020. Thirty-one percent expect to lose employment income in the next four weeks.

Many are hungry. One in eight adults (13 percent) did not have enough to eat sometimes or often in the past seven days. Among adults in households with children, a larger 17 percent did not have enough to eat. 

Many are afraid to go to the doctor. One-third of Americans aged 18 or older have delayed getting medical care in the past four weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Worries about next month's rent. One-third of renters say they have only slight or no confidence in their ability to pay next month's rent. Among renters with children, the figure is 41 percent. 

Paying for usual household expenses is difficult for many. More than one-third of adults say they have found it somewhat or very difficult to pay for usual household expenses in the past seven days.

Restaurants are devastated. The 61 percent majority of Americans have avoided eating at restaurants in the past seven days. 

The year 2020 is coming to a close. Good riddance.

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, November 25-December 7

A New Low in Geographic Mobility in 2020: 9.3%

There has been a lot of talk about the numbers of people who have moved because of the coronavirus pandemic. According to a Pew Research Center survey fielded in June, a substantial 22 percent of adults had relocated because of the pandemic or knew someone who had. An Upwork survey fielded in October found 14 to 23 million workers planning to move because remote work gave them the opportunity to live anywhere they choose. Those moves will boost migration in the United States, Upwork said.  

Nice try, but no cigar. Yesterday the Census Bureau released the official numbers on geographic mobility in 2020. The data are collected by the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC). The survey asks respondents, "Were you living in this house or apartment one year ago?" Only 9.3 percent said no—a record low geographic mobility rate.  

Percent of people aged 1 or older who lived in a different house or apartment one year ago

2019–20: 9.3% (record low)

2018–19: 9.8%

2017–18: 10.1%

2010–11: 11.6%

2000–01: 14.2%

There are a couple of reasons why the CPS ASEC did not capture coronavirus-related moves. One reason is timing. The Census Bureau fields the ASEC in March of each year. Perhaps March was too early in the pandemic to capture those moves. The second reason is response rates. In the turmoil during the early weeks of the pandemic, response rates to the March 2020 CPS were abnormally low, according to Census Bureau research. Pandemic movers may have been (almost certainly were) less likely to respond to the survey than those who stayed put. 

For whatever the reason, the geographic mobility figures from the 2020 CPS do not shed any light on pandemic-related moves. This time next year, the 2021 geographic mobility data will be released. Perhaps they will show the anticipated uptick in migration...unless all the pandemic movers return to their pre-pandemic homes by March 2021.

Source: Census Bureau, Geographic Mobility, 2019 to 2020

Only 19% Answer Cellphone Calls from Unknown Numbers

Only 19 percent of Americans answer their cellphone to see who it is when called by an unknown number, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The 67 percent majority will not answer the phone but will check voicemail if left. A hardened 14 percent not only won't answer the phone, they won't even check any voicemail left by an unknown number. 

Percent who will not answer their cellphone if called by an unknown number

Aged 18 to 29: 74%

Aged 30 to 49: 81%

Aged 50 to 64: 84%

Aged 65-plus: 79%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Americans Don't Answer Cellphone Calls from Unknown Numbers

Obesity Is Rising in Every Age Group

Just ahead of the holiday festivities, the National Center for Health Statistics has issued a report on trends in obesity by age. Do you think this is just a coincidence? Yes, of course it is. Nevertheless, perhaps a review of the trends will rein in the temptation to overindulge in these final days of a difficult year. 

If obesity were a mystery to be solved, then the trends presented by the NCHS report provide an important clue. The clue is this: it's happening across the board. No age group is immune. Obesity is surging among the young, the middle-aged, and the old. Take a look...

Percent obese by age, 1988–94 to 2017–18

	total	20-39	40-59	60-plus
2017-18	42.4%	40.0%	44.8%	42.8%
2007-08	33.7	30.7	36.2	35.1
1999-00	30.5	26.0	33.5	33.5
1988-94	22.9	17.7	27.9	23.7

Note: Obesity is defined as a body mass index at or above 30.0 kg/m²

The data used to calculate these numbers are collected by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The survey doesn't simply ask Americans how much they weigh—those self-reports would fall far short of reality. NHANES quantifies reality by dispersing mobile examination units around the country, from which trained health technicians measure the height and weight of a representative sample of the public. Over the past three decades, the survey's measurements show a doubling in the percentage of Americans who are obese among 20-to-39-year olds, a 61 percent increase among 40-to-59-year-olds and an 81 percent rise among people aged 60 or older. That's a lot of overindulging.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prevalence of Overweight, Obesity, and Severe Obesity among Adults Aged 20 and Over: United States, 1960–1962 through 2017–2018

Seismic Shift in the Publishing Industry

Recent trends in the information publishing industry are not pretty—at least for workers in traditional publishing establishments. In the past four years, the book, magazine, and newspaper industries have shed a combined total of 104,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, jobs in internet publishing have increased by nearly the same amount...

Employment in the publishing industry, 2016 and 2020

	2nd quarter 2020	1st quarter 2016	numerical change	percent change
Book	51,450	61,919	-10,469	-16.9%
Periodical	72,648	97,212	-24,564	-25.3%
Newspaper	111,615	180,313	-68,698	-38.1%
Internet	289,794	195,714	94,080	48.1%

Today, the 55 percent majority of publishing jobs are in internet publishing, up from just 37 percent in 2016.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internet Publishing Employment Up 48 Percent, First Quarter 2016 to Second Quarter 2020

Fewer Households in 2020

The number of households in the United States fell in 2020 for the first time in the history of the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey household series dating back to 1960. The decline was small—a loss of just 128,000 households between March 2019 and March 2020—but even a small decline is significant. It marks the turmoil of the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, when many left their homes to join family and friends for what seemed at the time to be a short-lived disruption.

Usually, the number of households in the U.S. grows by more than 1 million a year. That has been the case in 41 of the past 70 years. The largest single-year gain was in 1980, when the number of households surged by 3.4 million. The smallest increase was in 2009—up by just 357,000 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. 

Households did not decline in every demographic segment, of course. Here are the segments with the biggest losses...

Householders under age 30: The number of households headed by people under age 30 fell by more than 1.2 million between 2019 and 2020—an 8 percent decline. Some of the shrinkage can be accounted for by college students living off campus who returned to their parents' home when college classes went online. (Students living in college-owned housing are already counted as living with their parents.) 

Single-person households: The number of people who live alone fell by 281,000 between March 2019 and March 2020. Almost the entire decline occurred among men who live alone, their number falling by 273,000 versus an 8,000 decline for women. Why the difference? Most women who live alone are aged 55 or older. Most men who live alone are under age 55. Because of the age difference, women who live alone are less likely to be college students and less likely than their male counterparts to be hurt by the Covid-19 Recession. 

Asian, Black, and Hispanic households: The number of households headed by Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics fell by a combined 332,000 between March 2019 and March 2020. Asian households saw the largest drop, with 128,000 fewer households in 2020—a 1.8 percent decline. The number of Black households fell by 113,000 and Hispanic households by 91,000. 

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Household Tables

Not Wearing a Mask? 73% Are Mad at You

Many, many more Americans are angry about people not wearing a mask in public than are upset by stores requiring customers to wear masks, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Fully 73 percent of the public is bothered "a lot" or "some" when people do not wear masks in public places, Pew finds. So, if your goal is to goad, not wearing a mask is a good way to do it. 

Only 28 percent of the public is bothered "a lot" or "some" when stores require customers to wear masks. So, if you're a business trying to decide on the right thing to do, this is a no-brainer.

Percent bothered a lot/some when people around them in public places do not wear masks

Men: 69%

Women: 75%

Asians: 83%

Blacks: 80%

Hispanics: 76%

Non-Hispanic whites: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 68%

Aged 30 to 49: 70%

Aged 50 to 64: 71%

Aged 65-plus: 81%

Democrats: 87%

Republicans: 55%

Source: Pew Research Center, Intent to Get a Covid-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases

Slumping Revenues for Restaurants

The nation's small businesses are feeling the effects of the surge in coronavirus coupled with the onset of winter weather. More than one-third of all small businesses (38 percent) report a decline in operating revenues/sales/receipts in the past 7 days, according to the Small Business Pulse Survey fielded in the last week of November. Hurt the worst are small businesses in the accommodation and food service sector—such as restaurants. As of November 23-29, nearly two out of three (63.6 percent) reported a decline in revenue in the past 7 days.

It has been worse. Back in late April/early May, an even larger 74.6 percent of small businesses in the accommodation and food service sector reported lower revenues in the past 7 days. At the time, many states had ordered mandatory business closures as the first wave of coronavirus hit. Then things got better. Not only did the weather improve, but restaurants learned to adapt by shifting to takeout and offering outdoor dining. The percentage reporting a recent revenue decline fell to a low of 39.7 percent by the end of September. 

Since then, however, a growing share of restaurants and other businesses in the accommodation and food service sector are struggling. The percentage with falling revenues is surging as cold weather and renewed fears of widespread contagion drive customers away. The 63.9 percent reporting a recent revenue decline during the week of November 23-29 is approaching the spring peak. 

Percent of small businesses in the accommodation and food service sector reporting a decline in operating revenue/sales/receipts in the past 7 days, for selected weeks

63.6 percent: November 23-29 (3rd highest)

61.9 percent: November 16-22

50.5 percent: November 9-15

39.7 percent: September 27-October 3 (low point)

69.5 percent: May 3-9 (2nd highest)

74.6 percent: April 26-May 2 (peak)

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

Americans Pull Back on Spending

This year's Black Friday is being called Bleak Friday by some retail analysts, with brick and mortar stores relatively empty and holiday sales below expectations. The number of Black Friday shoppers at retail stores this year was 37 percent below the 2019 level, and holiday spending from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday was 14 percent lower than last year, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal. 

This underwhelming start to the holiday season was predicted by the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey fielded in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving (November 11-23). The survey asked Americans aged 18 or older whether their household spending/shopping behavior had changed in the past seven days. With Covid surging across the country, only 19 percent of the public said they had not changed the way they shopped. Here are some of changes in the shopping behavior of the 81 percent majority...

Changes to spending/shopping behavior in past seven days 

Made more purchases online: 53%

Made more purchases by curbside pickup: 27%

Made more purchases in-store: 8%

Increased use of credit cards or smartphone apps for purchases: 39%

Increased use of cash instead of credit cards or smartphones for purchases: 5%

Avoided eating at restaurants: 58%

Resumed eating at restaurants: 7%

The resurgence of coronavirus could not be happening at a worse time. Holiday spending, on which many businesses depend for the bulk of their revenue, is being constrained by the public's fear of Covid-19. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey Week 19 (November 11–November 23)

Misperceptions Hamper Planning for Long-Term Care

Nearly half of middle-aged and older Americans believe something that isn't true. No, this story isn't about QAnon. It's about long-term care. Fully 47 percent of people aged 40 or older believe Medicare—the government's health insurance program for people aged 65-plus—covers long-term care services such as nursing homes, according to an AARP survey. Medicare does not cover these services. The misperception that Medicare does cover them may be why so few have made plans for long-term care needs as they age, suggests AARP.  

Only 40 percent of Americans aged 40-plus have set aside money for care in their future, the survey finds. An even smaller 28 percent have researched community-based services, 26 percent have researched in-home care options, and just 22 percent have purchased long-term care insurance.

With so few preparing for potential long-term care needs, what do middle-aged and older Americans think will happen if and when they need it?  Hey kids, listen up! The 64 percent majority want their family to help out—either doing all the heavy lifting or in combination with paid help. Here are the long-term care settings preferred by the 40-plus population...  

Preferred care setting if long-term care is needed

41% prefer a combination of family help and paid help at home

23% prefer only family help at home

17% prefer a nurse to provide care at home

11% prefer care in a residential apartment-like setting

  6% prefer care in a nursing home

Although 64 percent of middle-aged and older Americans want their family to help care for them, only 47 percent have discussed these preferences with their family. 

Source: AARP, Attitudes Toward Long-Term Care Amid Covid-19

Crushing Job Losses in Leisure and Hospitality

In the state of Idaho, jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry inched up by 0.5 percent between October 2019 and October 2020. That's the good news—the only good news. In every other state, leisure and hospitality jobs fell during the year ending in October 2020. The coronavirus pandemic has dealt a crushing blow to the industry, which is comprised of businesses offering accommodation (hotels and motels), food services (restaurants and bars), arts, entertainment and recreation (performing arts, spectator sports, museums, historical sites, casinos, amusement parks). 

Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia had fewer leisure and hospitality industry jobs in October 2020 than they had one year earlier. In 44 states, the job decline was in the double digits. Hawaii saw the steepest plunge, with a 49.6 percent decrease in jobs. New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Michigan, and the District of Columbia all experienced declines of greater than 30 percent. Only Montana, Kentucky, Wyoming, Indiana, Oklahoma, and Mississippi registered year-over-year job declines of less than 10 percent. 

As the coronavirus pandemic swept the country last spring, jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry nationally fell by a stunning 47 percent—from 16.1 million in March to just 8.5 million in April. In every month since April, however, the industry has regained jobs. But the 13.4 million leisure and hospitality jobs of October 2020 were still 20 percent short of the 16.7 million in October 2019.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Leisure and Hospitality Employment in Hawaii Down 49.6 Percent for Year Ended October 2020

Most Eat Sweets on an Average Day

On an average day, 70 percent of children and 61 percent of adults eat sweets, according to the USDA's Food Surveys Research Group. Notice the word "eat." These lofty percentages include only the consumption of sweet food—items such as nutrition bars, cakes, pies, cookies, doughnuts, candy, ice cream, and other solid foods with added sugar. Fruit is not included, nor are sweetened drinks. 

The types of sweets children and adults consume on an average day is surprisingly similar. Sweet bakery products comprise the largest share for both age groups (45 percent). Candy accounts for another 30 percent of the sweets consumed by children and 31 percent of the sweets consumed by adults.

On an average day, younger children are more likely than older children to eat sweets. Among adults, those aged 60-plus are more likely to eat sweets than young or middle-aged adults. 

Percent who ate sweets on an average day, 2015–18

Aged 2 to 5: 74%

Aged 6 to 11: 78%

Aged 12 to 19: 62%

Aged 20 to 39: 55%

Aged 40 to 59: 60%

Aged 60-plus: 70%

Daily calorie intake is 300 to 400 calories greater for those who eat sweets versus those who do not. Sweets account for 18 to 19 percent of the total daily calorie intake among children and for 19 percent of daily calories among adults aged 60 or older.  

Source: USDA Food Surveys Research Group, What We Eat in America, NHANES 2015–2018, Sweet Foods Consumption by Children in the U.S. and Sweet Foods Consumption by Adults in the U.S.

Most Voters Now Feel Hopeful

The 56 percent majority of all American voters now feel "hopeful" about the state of the United States, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded November 12-17. Before the election in June 2020, a smaller 47 percent of registered voters felt hopeful. 

Not everyone feels more hopeful now than they did before the election. Hope has increased greatly among those who voted for Biden. Trump voters are much less likely to feel hopeful...

Percent of Biden voters who feel hopeful about the state of the nation

June: 42%

November: 72%

Change: +30 percentage points

Percent of Trump voters who feel hopeful about the state of the nation

June 53%

November: 39%

Change: –14 percentage points

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Voters are 'Fearful' and 'Angry' about the State of the U.S., but a Majority Now Are 'Hopeful,' Too

Fewer Support the Death Penalty

The 55 percent majority of Americans support the death penalty for a person convicted of murder, according to a recent Gallup Survey. This is the lowest level of support for the death penalty since 1972. The percentage of the public favoring the death penalty peaked at 80 percent in 1994. 

"Demographic trends may lead to further erosion in death penalty support," says Gallup. That's because the fastest-growing segments of the population are the ones least likely to support the death penalty—Gen Z and Millennials, non-whites, and college graduates. Here is the percentage who support the death penalty by generation...

Percent who support the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, 2020

Generation Z: 45%

Millennials: 51%

Generation X: 57%

Baby Boomers: 59%

Older Americans: 62%

Source: Gallup, U.S. Support for Death Penalty Holds Above Majority Level

144 Million Americans Cancelled Trips in 2020

Have you cancelled your traditional Thanksgiving travel plans because of coronavirus? If so, you belong to the supermajority of Americans who have scuttled 2020 travel plans during the pandemic. 

Because of coronavirus, fully 144 million Americans aged 18 or older report that they cancelled one or more planned overnight trips to a place 100 or more miles from their home. That's 66 percent of the adult population, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Just 7 percent of those who had planned an overnight trip went ahead with the trip despite the pandemic. The remaining 27 percent of adults had not planned on taking any trips in 2020. 

There is little difference by age in the percentage of people who had to cancel a 2020 trip. There are big differences by household income, however. Take a look...

Percent who cancelled any planned overnight trips in 2020 because of the pandemic

Less than $25,000:         45%

$25,000 to $34,999:       55%

$35,000 to $49,999:       66%

$50,000 to $74,999:       68%

$75,000 to $99,999:       74%

$100,000 to $149,999:   78%

$150,000 to $199,999:   82%

$200,000 or more:          86%

Why the big difference by household income in the percentage of people who cancelled trips? Because those with lower incomes were much less likely to have planned on taking any trips in 2020. Only 45 percent of Americans in households with incomes below $25,000 cancelled any overnight trips in 2020 because an even larger 49 percent had not planned on taking any trips—they had no trips to cancel. Regardless of household income, only 5 to 8 percent of those who had planned a 2020 trip still traveled despite the risk. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, Week 18 (October 28–November 9) 

What Americans Owe

American households owed a median of $64,800 in 2019, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. This means half of households owe more than this amount and half owe less. Here are the details of debt in 2019...

	% of households  with debt	median amount                       owed
Any debt	76.6%	$64,800
Credit card balance	45.4%	$2,700
Primary residence	42.1%	$134,800
Vehicle loans	36.9%	$13,100
Education loans	21.5%	$22,300
Other installment loans	10.5%	$3,800
Other loans secured by residential property	4.7%	$122,000

The most common type of debt is credit card, with 45 percent of households having a credit card balance after their last payment. The majority of households use credit cards only for convenience, the Federal Reserve reports, paying the balance in full each month. 

Sixty-five percent of households owned their primary residence in 2019. With 42 percent of households having debt secured by their primary residence, this means about one-third of households own their home free and clear.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

What Americans Own

Almost all American households own something of value. Fully 99.6 percent of households owned one or more of the assets measured by the Federal Reserve Board's 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances. But only four kinds of assets are owned by most households: transaction accounts (checking and savings accounts), vehicles, a home, and a retirement account. 

Here is the percentage of households owning each type of asset, ranked from most to least common, and the median value of the assets for households that own them:

	percent of households owning	median value         for owners
Any asset	99.6%	$227,600
Checking/savings accounts	98.2%	$5,300
Vehicles	85.4%	$17,200
Primary residence	64.9%	$225,000
Retirement account	50.5%	$65,000
Cash value life insurance	19.0%	$9,000
Stocks (directly owned)	15.2%	$25,000
Business equity	13.4%	$89,100
Other residential property	13.1%	$160,000
Pooled investment (mutual) funds	9.0%	$110,000
Certificates of deposit	7.7%	$25,000
Savings bonds	7.5%	$800
Equity in nonresidential property	6.7%	$72,000
Other managed assets	5.9%	$115,000
Bonds (directly owned)	1.1%	$121,000

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances

Does Happiness Rise in Old Age?

Over the years, happiness studies have revealed a "paradox of well-being"—the finding that life satisfaction increases with advancing age. This is a paradox because no one can explain why older people appear to become increasingly satisfied with their life despite more illness and the greater likelihood of widowhood.

Now a study explains the paradox. It is a mirage, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study by researchers at RAND. In an examination of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, the researchers find that older Americans with higher life satisfaction live longer than their counterparts with lower satisfaction. Consequently, as people age, those with higher life satisfaction account for a larger share of the survivors, driving up overall satisfaction levels. But looking at life satisfaction at the individual level shows a decline with age. While satisfaction is relatively stable from ages 65 to 75, the researchers report, the rate of decline grows with age at older ages. 

"Our results suggest that the optimistic picture about well-being among older persons based on cross-sectional data is misleading," the researchers conclude. "Those with lower levels of life satisfaction die younger and those who survive experience declining life satisfaction as they age."

What a bummer.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Age Profile of Life-Satisfaction after Age 65 in the U.S., NBER Working Paper 28037

Americans Are Mixed Up about Crime

If you ask the American public about crime in the United States, you almost always get the same answer. Crime is increasing. The trouble is, the American public is wrong. Gallup surveys reveal just how unhinged attitudes are about crime, reflecting fear rather than facts.  

Let's start with the facts. When Gallup asked respondents in 2020 whether their household or they personally had been victimized by crime in the past 12 months, the percentage who said yes was at a record low on both measures. Twenty percent said their household had been victimized by crime and 13 percent said they personally had been a victim. These are the lowest rates of victimization recorded by Gallup since it first asked these questions in 2000. 

Now let's move on to the fear. Here's what Gallup reports: "Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year (78%) than they have been at any point since 1993." But if you ask Americans about crime in their local area, where they are more familiar with the facts, only 38 percent say crime has increased in the past year. The gap between perceptions of crime in the U.S. as a whole and local areas is fully 40 percentage points—the largest recorded by Gallup in the three decades it has tracked these trends.

The perception of increased crime in the U.S. as a whole is being driven largely by Republicans, Gallup reports. The percentage of Republicans who say crime in the U.S. is increasing surged by 24 percentage points in 2020 and stands at 83 percent. Among Democrats, 73 percent say crime in the U.S. is increasing, 4 percentage points higher than a year earlier. But when asked whether crime has increased in their local area, a similarly small percentage of Republicans (38 percent) and Democrats (36 percent) say yes. 

"Americans' persistent belief that crime worsened in the past year has been out of sync with federal crime statistics showing that crime rates have fallen," Gallup concludes. "Much of this is politically driven."

Source: Gallup, U.S. Reports of Crime Victimization at 20-Year Low and Perceptions of Increased U.S. Crime at Highest Since 1993

68% Support Legal Marijuana

More than two-thirds of the American public (68 percent) supports the legalization of marijuana, the highest percentage recorded by Gallup since it first asked the question in 1969. Back then, only 12 percent of the population said yes when asked, "Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal?" Three decades later in 2000, just 30 percent supported legalization. Then attitudes really began to change. The figure surpassed 50 percent in 2011 and has continued to rise upward almost steadily since then. 

The majority of every age group now supports the legalization of marijuana. Here are the percentages who support legalizing marijuana by age, education, and political affiliation...

Percent who think the use of marijuana should be made legal

Aged 18 to 29: 79%

Aged 30 to 49: 75%

Aged 50 to 64: 60%

Aged 65-plus: 55%

Not a college graduate: 64%

College graduate: 76%

Democrats: 83%

Republicans: 48%

Source: Gallup, Support for Legal Marijuana Inches Up to New High of 68%

Big Spenders on Food

A century ago, 38 cents out of every dollar spent by the average American household was spent on food. Today, the figure is just 11 cents. Whew, right? 

Not so fast. Many Americans still spend more than one-third of their income on food—and it's not because they're dining out at fancy restaurants. The share of income a household devotes to food is greatest for households with the lowest incomes. Here is the food share of household expenditures by household income quintile...

Percent of after-tax income spent on food by household income quintile, 2019

Bottom quintile: 36%

Second quintile: 18%

Middle quintile: 14%

Fourth quintile: 11%

Highest quintile: 8%

Note: Households in the bottom income quintile have a before-tax income below $22,488; second income quintile $22,488 to $43,431; middle income quintile $43,432 to $72,233; fourth income quintile $72,234 to $120,728; highest income quintile $120,729 and above.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, U.S. Households in the Lowest Income Quintile Spent an Average of 36 Percent of Income on Food in 2019

Want to Do Well? Be Financially Literate

Does it pay to be financially literate? Yes, according to the findings of a longitudinal study by the FINRA Investor Education Foundation. The study began in 2012 when researchers measured the financial literacy of a group of participants in the RAND American Life Panel. The study ended in 2018 when the financial status of the same respondents was measured to determine whether those with greater financial literacy were doing better than those with less. They were.

Financial literacy was measured using the FINRA Investor Education Foundation's National Financial Capability Study questionnaire, which consists of five questions about savings, inflation, mortgages, interest rates, and credit cards. The questionnaire can be accessed here. 

The study measured three positive outcomes: the respondent's level of satisfaction with their financial situation, the respondent's ability to meet an unexpected $2,000 expense, and whether the respondent is planning for retirement. All three positive outcomes were increasingly likely with greater financial literacy, even after controlling for demographic characteristics and current financial condition. The biggest impact was seen in the ability to pay an unexpected $2,000 expense. Among those who failed to answer any of the financial literacy questions correctly, only 46 percent said they would be able to pay such an expense. Among those who answered all five questions correctly, a much larger 67 percent said they would be able to pay the expense. 

"Differences in one's stock of financial knowledge can lead to increasing disparities over the life course," the researchers conclude. "Thus, differential levels of financial literacy may contribute to widening inequality among different segments of the population."

Source: FINRA Investor Education Foundation, The Stability and Predictive Power of Financial Literacy: Evidence from Longitudinal Data

Grim Findings from the Household Pulse Survey

Now that the election is over, let's hope the nation's attention returns to the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic on American lives and livelihoods. Attention is required. The latest Weekly Pulse Newsletter from the Census Bureau lays it out in grim detail. Here, verbatim, is how things stood at the end of October...

• 24.1% of American adults expect someone in their household to experience a loss in employment income in the next 4 weeks
• 36.9% of adults live in households where at least one adult substituted some or all in-person work for telework because of the coronavirus pandemic
• 10.9% of American adults lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the previous 7 days
• 7.0% of adults are either not current on their rent or mortgage payment or have slight or no confidence in making their next payment on time
• Of adults living in households not current on rent or mortgage, 28.4% report eviction or foreclosure in the next two months is either somewhat or very likely
• 33.1% of adults live in households where it has been somewhat or very difficult to pay usual household expenses during the coronavirus pandemic
• 82.5% of adults in households with post-secondary educational plans had those plans cancelled or changed significantly this fall

These findings come from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, which is measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on American households. Phase 1 of the survey assessed households every week from April 23 through July 21. That was supposed to be the end of it, but the pandemic had other plans. So on August 19 the Census Bureau began Phase 2 of the survey, collecting data every two weeks...until November 4. Meanwhile, the pandemic rages on. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, October 14-26

We Spend More on Pets than Child Care

The average American household spent $681 on pets in 2019, including pet food, veterinary services, medicines, toys, grooming, doggy daycare, and so on. This is more than the average household spent on cable television ($647) and many other items, such as...

Alcoholic beverages ($579)

Lodging on trips ($619)

Child care ($429)

Internet services ($557)

Furniture ($521)

Women's clothes ($602)

Airline fares ($513)

Drugs ($486)

Average household spending on pets was 21 percent greater in 2019 than in 2010 ($563), after adjusting for inflation. It was more than double the $311 spent by the average household in 2000. But the 2019 figure is not the highest it has ever been. Peak pet spending occurred in 2017, when the average household spent $740 on pets. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 Consumer Expenditure Survey

How Much Will You Inherit?

If you're in the top tiers of the household wealth distribution, chances are it's because your parents (and their parents) were generous with their money. Up to one-half of total household wealth is attributable to intergenerational transfers, reports a Federal Reserve analysis of trends in the distribution of wealth. So, it's no surprise that the wealthiest households are the ones who expect to receive the largest inheritances. Here are inheritance expectations by household net worth percentiles...

Size of Expected Inheritance by Household Net Worth Percentile, 2019

Net worth percentile	Expected inheritance
Top 1 percent	$941,100
Next 9 percent	$266,600
Next 40 percent	$60,100
Bottom 50 percent	$29,400

Not sure where your net worth ranks in the U.S. wealth distribution? Among all households, median net worth was $121,800 in 2019. Among households in the top 10 percent of net worth, median net worth was $2.6 million and average net worth was $5.7 million. 

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Wealth and Income Concentration in the SCF: 1989–2019

Has God Granted America a Special Role?

Four years ago, the 57 percent majority of Americans agreed with the statement: "God has granted America a special role in human history." Back in 2016, fully 76 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats agreed, according to PRRI's American Values Survey. 

Most Americans don't feel that way anymore. Four years of the Trump presidency have caused many to lose faith. Either they've decided God has nothing to do with the current state of affairs, or they've decided the U.S. has no special role to play. Only 40 percent of the public now agrees with the statement. Among Democrats, the share who agree fell by more than 20 percentage points to 32 percent. Among Republicans, the share agreeing fell 12 percentage points to 64 percent—still the great majority. 

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

The Changing Demographics of Voters

The nation's electorate is changing in every way. It is getting older, becoming more diverse, and is increasingly educated. Pew Research Center recently analyzed the demographics of registered voters and compared the results to voters in the past...

Non-Hispanic whites as a share of registered voters

Total registered voters: 69%

Democratic/lean Democratic: 59%

Republican/lean Republican: 81%

In 1996, fully 85 percent of registered voters were non-Hispanic white—94 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats.

People aged 50-plus as a share of registered voters

Total registered voters: 52%

Democratic/lean Democratic: 50%

Republican/lean Republican: 56%

The 50-plus age group accounts for the majority of registered voters heading into the 2020 election. In 1996, voters aged 50 or older were just 41 percent of the electorate.

College graduates as a share of registered voters

Total registered voters: 36%

Democratic/lean Democratic: 38%

Republican/lean Republican: 29%

College graduates are a much larger share of the electorate in 2020 than they were in 1996. People with a college degree accounted for just 24 percent of all registered voters in 1996. Back then, college graduates were a larger share of Republicans (27 percent) than Democrats (22 percent). Today, college graduates are a much larger share of Democrats than Republicans.

Source: Pew Research Center, What the 2020 Electorate Looks Like by Party, Race and Ethnicity, Age, Education, and Religion

College Enrollment Has Dropped

Undergraduate enrollment at institutions of higher education was 4 percent lower as of September 24, 2020, than one year earlier, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The Clearinghouse updates its enrollment data monthly as it tracks the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the nation's colleges. The data are submitted by Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S. that participate in the Clearinghouse. Fifty-four percent of institutions submitted data for the September update.

The biggest enrollment drop has taken place at community colleges. At the end of September, enrollment in community colleges was 9.4 percent lower than one year earlier. Undergraduate enrollment was down 2.0 percent at private, nonprofit four-year schools, and it has fallen 1.4 percent at public four-year schools. 

The Clearinghouse reports that the biggest enrollment drop is among first-time beginning students, with enrollment as of September 24, 2020, fully 16.1 percent below the level one year earlier. First-time beginning students account for 69 percent of the decline in undergraduate enrollment nationwide. 

The undergraduate enrollment decline is similar in every age group, but is greater for males (6.4 percent) than for females (2.2 percent). By race and Hispanic origin, the decline is greater for Blacks (7.9 percent), non-Hispanic whites (7.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.1 percent) than for Asians (4.0 percent). By far the biggest enrollment decline of all was among international students, with 13.6 percent fewer enrolled as undergraduates in the nation's colleges in September 2020 than in September 2019.

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Covid-19, Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information

All Eyes on the Young Adult Vote

If young adults do what they say, the 2020 election may be one for the history books. Fully 55 percent of 18-to-36-year-olds say they will "definitely vote" in next week's election, according to the University of Chicago's GenForward Survey. Another 19 percent say they will "probably vote." If they do as they say, then voter turnout of the 18-to-36 age group may exceed the 54 percent who voted in the 2008 election, which swept Barack Obama into the White House. 

Young adults are notorious for not voting, a frustration for those who seek progressive change and a boon to those who want to maintain the status quo. In the 2016 presidential election, just 49.8 percent of citizens aged 18 to 36 voted, according to the Census Bureau. In the 2012 election, the figure was 49.2 percent. But the GenForward survey results suggest greater enthusiasm this time around. The majority of 18-to-36-year-olds say they have "quite a bit/great deal" of interest in this election. Here are the percentages who say they will definitely vote by race and Hispanic origin...

Percent of 18-to-36-year-olds who say they will definitely vote in the 2020 presidential election

Total: 55%

Asians: 56%

Blacks: 59%

Hispanics: 49%

Non-Hispanic whites: 57%

Source: GenForward, Politics 2020, Protest, Racism, and Policing 

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2020: 50.1%

For the first time since 2011, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 edged above the 50 percent threshold, allowing them to reclaim their position as the nation's first-time homebuyers. First-time homebuyers are defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. Historically, householders aged 30-to-34 were the nation's first-time homebuyers. But in 2011, their homeownership rate fell below 50 percent and has been stuck there ever since. Until now. 

Let's postpone the celebration, however. The coronavirus pandemic has upended the nation's data collection efforts. The Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), which produces the quarterly homeownership statistics, is no exception. Because of the pandemic, the Census Bureau has been collecting HVS data by telephone rather than in-person interviews, and monthly response rates have dropped. Just 66 percent of households responded in July and 69 percent in August. This compares with a response rate of 83 percent for those months in 2019. When the Census Bureau resumed in-person interviews in September, the response rate increased to 79 percent, a hopeful sign that things will eventually return to normal. 

But not yet. As was true for second quarter 2020 data, third quarter data cannot be taken at face value. As senior research associate Daniel McCue of the Joint Center for Housing Studies explains it: "It appears that we are in for a period of time where trends in housing metrics obtained from the HVS—such as homeownership rates, vacancy rates, and household growth—will be difficult to determine and largely unknown."

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Percentage of Men at Work Hits Record Low

Working parents are having a tough time coping with the coronavirus pandemic. Just how tough is spelled out in a Pew Research Center analysis of monthly data from the 2020 Current Population Survey. For many parents, the pandemic means they can't work at all—either they lost their job or they have had to leave the labor force to care for children and supervise their education. 

Only 60.5 percent of all men aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, Pew reports. This is the smallest share of men at work on record and well below the 65.3 percent who were working in September 2019. The trend for women is similar. Only 49.2 percent of women aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, the smallest share in 35 years and down from 54.0 percent in September 2019.

One reason for these low figures is the struggle parents face as they attempt to juggle work, child care, and homeschooling. The percentage of mothers and fathers who were working in September 2020 was well below the 2019 figures. Among fathers, the biggest decline occurred for those with children under age 3. In September 2019, fully 91.9 percent of these fathers were working. In September 2020, a smaller 85.0 percent were working—a 6.9 percentage point drop. Among mothers, those with children aged 3 to 13 registered the biggest decline—a 6.7 percentage point drop. The parents fortunate enough to be working in September 2020 reported fewer hours of work per week than their counterparts did in September 2019. 

The findings of this analysis are in contrast to earlier studies, Pew notes. The earlier studies showed mothers cutting back on work more than fathers. The latest findings show the coronavirus pandemic affecting mothers and fathers similarly. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Fewer Mothers and Fathers in U.S. Are Working Due to Covid-19 Downturn; Those at Work Have Cut Hours

Blacks Are More than Twice as Likely as Whites to Know Someone Who Died from Covid-19

Twenty-two percent of all Americans know someone who died from Covid-19, according to PRRI's 2020 American Values Survey. Blacks are more than twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to know someone who died...

Percent who know someone who died from Covid-19

38% of Blacks

29% of Hispanics

16% of non-Hispanic whites

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

Who Do You Believe about the Coronavirus Pandemic?

Nearly half of the American public (49 percent) has "a lot" of trust in Dr. Anthony Fauci to provide accurate information about the coronavirus pandemic, according to the PRRI 2020 American Values Survey. The only other source that garners slightly more trust (51 percent) is university research centers. Just 14 percent of the public has a lot of trust in Donald Trump to provide accurate information about the pandemic. But there are big differences in trust by political ideology. Here are the percentages with "a lot" of trust in each source...

• Dr. Anthony Fauci: 73 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans 
• University research centers: 65 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of Republicans
• State and local health organizations: 60 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans
• Joe Biden: 58 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of Republicans
• CDC: 57 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of Republicans
• Donald Trump: 1 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans

Republicans who say Fox News is their most trusted source of television news are much more likely to trust Donald Trump to keep them informed about the pandemic. Fully 58 percent of Fox News Republicans, as PRRI calls them, have a lot of trust in Donald Trump as a source of information about coronavirus. In fact, Donald Trump is their most trusted source—far ahead of university research centers (32 percent), Dr. Fauci (23 percent), and state and local health organizations (15 percent). 

Source: PRRI, 2020 American Values Survey

Median Home Value at Record High in 2019

The median value of the American home has finally surpassed the manic figure of 2007—just before the housing bubble burst. The nation's homeowners reported a median home value of $240,500 in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS). This is a bit more than the $239,600 reported by homeowners in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. After 12 long years, perhaps this valuation now reflects reality—in contrast to the wishful thinking of 2007.

Not every survey agrees that median housing value is at a record high. According to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, homeowners reported a median home value of $225,000 in 2019, well below the $246,900 of 2007, after adjusting for inflation. According to the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey, homeowners reported a median value of $230,000 in 2019, still below the inflation-adjusted $236,100 of 2007. But the American Community Survey's sample size is much larger than either the American Housing Survey or the Survey of Consumer Finances, so the ACS is more likely to reflect reality. 

Median home value for selected years, 2007 to 2019 (in 2019 dollars)

2019: $240,500 (new record high)

2018: $229,700 

2015: $209,800

2013: $190,800 (post-Great Recession low)

2010: $210,900

2007: $239,600 (previous record high)

It is unknown how the coronavirus pandemic will affect home values. But the record-low mortgage interest rates of 2020 are spurring more home buying, which is likely to boost values even higher.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Community Survey