What's Holding Down Wages? Maybe The Lower Rate of Job-to-Job Transitions

Although the unemployment rate has fallen by nearly 5 percentage points since the Great Recession, wages have not grown much. One reason for sluggish wage growth, according to an analysis appearing in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics blog, is the low rate of job-to-job transitions—workers who leave one job and immediately take another without experiencing a spell of nonemployment. Job-to-job transition workers typically are moving up the job ladder, finding new jobs with higher pay. Unfortunately, the job-to-job transition rate has yet to recover from the Great Recession.

Using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, economists from the New York Fed analyzed changes in the wages of job-to-job transition workers and workers who experienced a period of nonemployment before their current job...

Job-to-job transition workers
Current wage: $27.28
Starting wage at current job: $20.09
Ending wage at previous job: $18.79

Period of nonemployment workers
Current wage: $18.31
Starting wage at current job: $14.61
Ending wage at previous job: $17.92

Although both types of workers had similar wages at the end of their previous job, the job-to-job transition workers had a higher starting wage at their current job and a much higher current wage. Because of the lower rate of job-to-job transitions, conclude the researchers, fewer workers are moving up the job ladder. That may be suppressing wage growth.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Searching for Higher Wages

Lifetime Earnings: College vs. High School Grads

A new measure of lifetime earnings by educational attainment finds the earnings gap between college and high school graduates to be smaller than previous studies have estimated—but still worth the expense of going to college. 

In their lifetime, men with a bachelor's degree earn $840,000 more than men with no more than a high school diploma, according to a study in Demography. Their female counterparts earn $587,000 more. These estimates are more realistic than those produced by previous studies, say the authors, because they're based on real earnings over a lifetime: the researchers matched a panel of respondents in the longitudinal Survey of Income and Program Participation to their Social Security earnings records, then compared earnings by educational attainment. Most previous studies of lifetime earnings have been done synthetically, using a snapshot of earnings by age and education from cross-sectional surveys. 

Although the financial benefit of a college degree is not the lofty 84 percent found by previous studies, but only 43 percent for men and 51 percent for women, the authors note that a college education is still worth the expense. The $52,000 tuition price tag for a four-year degree (the average in 2010, according to the National Center for Education Statistics) is only a fraction of the lifetime earnings boost college graduates can expect. 

Source: Demography, Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States ($39.95)

Generational Labels

Percentage of each generation that identifies with the generation's name...

Millennials: 40%
Generation X: 58%
Baby Boomers: 79%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Millennials Resist the "Millennial" Label

Average Household Spending Rises in 2014

The average household spent $53,495 in 2014—3 percent more than in 2013, after adjusting for inflation. This is good news and it may signal an energized economy. Household spending reached an all-time high of $56,833 in 2006 (in 2014 dollars). In the years since, average household spending has fallen fairly steadily, reaching a low of $51,929 in 2013. 

Necessities accounted for some but not all of the spending boost between 2013 and 2014. The average household spent 7.5 percent more on rent, after adjusting for inflation, but it also spent 9.6 percent more on apparel—a category that had been in long-term decline. Spending on entertainment climbed 8.2 percent, and spending on food away from home was up 4.5 percent. Spending on gasoline was down 7 percent. Health insurance spending in 2014 is not comparable to earlier years because of changes in the way the Consumer Expenditure Survey collects the data. 

Average household spending (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $53,495
2013: $51,929
2012: $53,042
2011: $52,312
2010: $52,230 
2006: $56,833
2000: $52,303

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Heart Age vs. Chronological Age

Chances are, your heart is older than you are. That's what the CDC discovered when it estimated the "heart age" of a representative sample of Americans aged 30 to 74. Using the Framingham Heart Study's cardiovascular risk factor system, the CDC estimated the sample's vascular age and compared it to their chronological age. In every demographic segment, heart age exceeded chronological age, sometimes by a wide margin.

Take a look at the findings for men. The average chronological age of men in the sample was 47.8. The average heart age of men in the sample was 55.6. Nearly half (49 percent) of men had a heart age that exceeded their chronological age by at least five years. Here are the results by age group...

Men aged 30 to 39
Average chronological age 34.3
Average heart age: 38.1
Heart age exceeds chronological age by 5-plus years: 33%

Men aged 40 to 49
Average chronological age 44.4
Average heart age: 50.3
Heart age exceeds chronological age by 5-plus years: 41%

Men aged 50 to 59
Average chronological age 54.1
Average heart age: 64.5
Heart age exceeds chronological age by 5-plus years: 58%

Men aged 60 to 74
Average chronological age 65.7
Average heart age: 79.5
Heart age exceeds chronological age by 5-plus years: 73%

Source: CDC, Vital Signs: Predicted Heart Age and Racial Disparities in Heart Age Among U.S. Adults at the State Level

Children Per Household, 1964 to 2014

Remember when neighborhoods were full of children? This is why they aren't anymore: the average number of children (people under age 18) per household peaked in 1964 (also the last year of the baby boom) at 1.24. Since then, the average has fallen in most years. It slipped below 1.0 for the first time in 1974 and reached an all-time low of 0.60 in 2014—less than half of the 1964 level...

Average number of people under age 18 per household
2014: 0.60
2010: 0.64
2000: 0.69
1990: 0.69
1980: 0.79
1970: 1.09
1964: 1.24

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Time Series, Households

The New Income Estimates

The Census Bureau thinks long and hard before tinkering with the all-important Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), from which emanates much of what we know about the economic status of the American people. But sometimes change is necessary, and this is one of those times. The Census Bureau has been working on a redesign of the ASEC income questions for 14 years, attempting to improve the accuracy of the nation's official income statistics. When the bureau releases the 2015 CPS ASEC results on September 16 (with income data for 2014), the redesign will be fully implemented. Here's what you need to know...

• A redesign of the CPS ASEC income questions has been sorely needed, in part because the original questions failed to capture most withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s. The redesign counts these withdrawals as income. 
• Analyzing income trends will be problematic—at least in the short run. Data from the redesigned questions are not comparable with data from the original questions. To provide a bridge, the Census Bureau has released 2013 income data from a 2014 ASEC sample that was asked the new questions. At the above link, there are two sets of 2013 tables—the original and the redesign, allowing researchers to compare the original numbers with the redesign and also to determine the 2013-to-2014 trend when the 2014 data are released on September 16. 
• The redesigned income questions boosted overall aggregate income in 2013 by 4.2 percent, according to a comparison of data from the original and redesigned questions. While earned income did not change, unearned income was 12.4 percent higher in the redesign. 
• Median household income in 2013 was 3.2 percent greater with the redesigned questions. While there was no statistically significant change in median household income among younger adults, the median income of households headed by people aged 55 or older was about 5 percent higher primarily because of retirement account withdrawals. 
• Many more Americans reported receiving income from an IRA, Keogh, or 401(k)—the figure rising from 1 million in the original to 5 million in the redesign.

It will take a while to digest these changes. The Census Bureau plans to provide a research file with adjusted income data, allowing for historical comparisons. Until then, the starting point for income trend analysis will be 2013.

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Products Based on Redesigned Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Questions

Walking/Bicycling as Transportation

On an average day, only 10 percent of Americans walk or bicycle as transportation (rather than exercise)—meaning they walk or bicycle to get from point A to point B. Although urban populations have been growing in recent years, the percentage who walk or bicycle as transportation has fallen slightly over the past decade—from 11.8 percent in 2003 to 10.3 percent in 2012, according to the American Time Use Survey. Younger adults are most likely to walk or bicycle as transportation on an average day. Here are the 2012 stats by age...

Percent who walked or bicycled as transportation in past 24 hours
Aged 16 to 39: 14.0%
Aged 40 to 59: 8.4%
Aged 60-plus: 6.9%

Source: CDC, Active Transportation Surveillance—United States, 1999-2012

How Spending Has Changed Since World War II

The average American household spends differently than its counterpart did in the 1940s, according to an analysis in the Monthly Labor Review. Here are the most striking changes in the share of the household budget devoted to...

Food and alcohol (-19.7 percentage points)
2013: 16.2%
1944: 35.9%

Housing (+14.1 percentage points)
2013: 40.2%
1944: 26.1%

Clothing (-12.7 percentage points)
2013: 3.3%
1944: 16.0%

Transportation (+14.1 percentage points)
2013: 20.4%
1944: 6.3%

Medical care (+2.7 percentage points)
2013: 8.2%
1944: 5.5%

The share of household spending devoted to recreation and entertainment climbed from 2.8 to 5.6 percent between 1944 and 2013, and the share devoted to education more than tripled—growing from just 0.6 to 2.1 percent. Conversely, the share of household spending devoted to tobacco fell from 2.0 to 0.7 percent, and the share devoted to reading plummeted from 1.1 to just 0.2 percent. Note: For comparative purposes, spending data are adjusted to exclude gift purchases, cash contributions, personal insurance, and pensions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Consumer Spending in World War II: the Forgotten Consumer Expenditure Surveys

Age Distribution of CEOs

More than 1.6 million American workers are CEOs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not surprisingly, CEOs rank among the oldest workers. Their median age is 52.3, well above the median age of 42.3 for all workers. Here is the age distribution of the nation's CEOs...

Under age 25:  0.7%
Aged 25 to 34: 8.4%
Aged 35 to 44: 18.0%
Aged 45 to 54: 32.3%
Aged 55 to 64: 30.4%
Aged 65-plus: 10.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Automobile Alternatives

The five metropolitan areas with the lowest rate of commuting to work by automobile and their second most common mode of commute...

1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Automobile: 56.9%
Subway or elevated rail: 18.9%

2. Ithaca, NY
Automobile: 68.7%
Walk: 17.5%

3. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
Automobile: 69.8%
Bus or trolly bus: 7.6%

4. Boulder, CO
Automobile: 71.9%
Work at home: 11.1%

5. Corvallis, OR
Automobile: 72.6%
Bicycle: 8.8%

Source: Census Bureau, Who Drives to Work? Commuting by Automobile in the United States: 2013

Who's Looking for a New Job?

Only 39 percent of American workers say it is somewhat or very likely they will try to find a new job with another employer within the next year, according to the General Social Survey. Half of Millennial workers are job hunting...

Likely to look for a new job in the next year
Millennials: 50%
Gen Xers: 40%
Boomers: 27%
Older Americans: 7%

Note: Millennials are 20-37; Gen Xers are 38-49; Boomers are 50-68.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Drinking and Driving

Only 1.8 percent of Americans aged 18 or older admit to driving while drunk in the past 30 days, according to the CDC. Here is the percentage by age...

Drove while alcohol-impaired in past 30 days
18-20: 1.4%
21-24: 4.2%
25-34: 3.0%
35-54: 1.9%
55-plus: 0.8%

Source: CDC, Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Adults — United States, 2012

37% of Workers Have Telecommuted

Thirty-seven percent of American workers have ever telecommuted, according to a Gallup survey. Telecommuting is defined as working from home using a computer to communicate for a job. This is the highest level of telecommuting recorded by Gallup and far above the 9 percent who ever telecommuted the first time Gallup asked the question in 1995.

Workers who have ever telecommuted typically do so a median of three days a month. But 24 percent say they telecommute more than 10 days a month—or at least half of their work days.

Source: Gallup, In U.S., Telecommuting for Work Climbs to 37%

A Decline in Commuting to Work by Automobile

The percentage of American workers who commute by automobile is on the decline, peaking at 87.9 percent in 2000 and falling to 85.8 percent by 2013, reports the Census Bureau. Much of the decline in automobile commuting is due to less carpooling. The percentage of workers who carpool fell to its lowest point in 2013—9.4 percent, and less than half of the 19.7 percent of 1980. But the percentage of workers who drive alone to work alone has also fallen (very) slightly in recent years—from the all-time high of 76.6 percent in 2010 to 76.4 percent in 2013.

Percentage of workers who drive alone to work
2013: 76.4%
2010: 76.6%
2000: 75.7%
1990: 73.2%
1980: 64.4%

Source: Census Bureau, Who Drives to Work? Commuting by Automobile in the United States: 2013

Death by Injury in 2013

Injury is a major cause of death in the United States. Unintentional injuries (accidents) are the 4th leading cause of death, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Add in the intentional injuries (suicides, homicides, executions, and combat deaths), and nearly 200,000 Americans died of injuries in 2013...

Deaths due to injury
Total injury deaths: 192,945
Unintentional: 130,557
Suicide: 41,149
Homicide: 16,121
Undetermined: 4,587
Legal intervention/war: 531

The government categorizes injury deaths by their cause: poisoning (48,545), firearms (33,636), motor vehicles (33,804), falling (31,240), suffocation (17,316), drowning (4,056), fire (3,220), cutting or stabbing (2,576), environmental (1,535), being struck (936), machinery (588), overexertion (13), and many thousands of injury deaths due to other causes.

The role of accidents—as opposed to suicide or homicide—varies by type of injury. Among poisonings, fully 80 percent of deaths are accidental. Among drownings, accidents account for an even larger 84 percent. For falls, the figure is 97 percent. But accidents are a tiny share of firearm deaths—just 505 people died due to the accidental discharge of a firearm in 2013. The 63 percent majority of firearm deaths are suicides and 33 percent are homicides.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Detailed Tables for Deaths: Final Data for 2013

Rise of the Non-Religious

Percent of people aged 18 or older who say they have no religious preference, 1972 to 2014...

2014: 21%
2010: 18%
2000: 14%
1990:   8%
1980:   7%
1972:   5%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Guns: Rural vs. Urban

Americans are pretty evenly split on whether it is more important to protect gun rights or control gun ownership, according to a Pew survey—47 percent say gun rights and 50 percent say gun control. There is a huge difference of opinion between urban residents and rural folk, however...

Urban: 60 percent say gun control is more important, 38 percent gun rights.
Suburban: 48 percent say gun control is more important, 48 percent gun rights.
Rural: 35 percent say gun control is more important, 63 percent gun rights.

Source: Pew Research Center, Continued Bipartisan Support for Expanded Background Checks on Gun Sales 

Peak Transportation Spending

Has household spending on transportation peaked? It looks that way. The average household devoted 17.5 percent of its budget to transportation in 2013-14. While this is more than the Great Recession low of 15.6 percent in 2008 (the smallest since the early 1960s), it remains well below the 19-plus percent of the 1980s and early 2000s.

Transportation is our second biggest expense. In 2013-14, the average household devoted $9,104 to transportation, most of it for vehicles and gasoline. The evolution of this major household expense has been documented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer expenditure surveys. In the earliest, taken in 1901 and 1918-19, there was no separate spending category for transportation, so minor was the expense. As cars became common, transportation became a category. In 1934-36, transportation consumed 8 percent of average household spending. At the time, 40 percent of households owned a vehicle. The figure climbed over the decades, peaking in 2008 at 89 percent. In 2013-14, a smaller 87 percent of households owned a vehicle. The average number of vehicles per household fell to 1.8, down from 2.0 as recently as 2009.

With households holding on to their vehicles longer (the average age of light vehicles is now 11.4 years, up from 9.1 in 2000), greater fuel efficiency, increased urbanization, and the rise of ride sharing services, it looks like peak transportation spending may be in our rearview mirror.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Surveys

When Building Wealth, Timing Is Everything

When it comes to building wealth, timing is everything. Gen Xers are learning this the hard way, according to an analysis of American debt by The Pew Charitable Trusts.

Many Gen Xers bought houses when prices were peaking during the housing bubble. Now they owe more in mortgage debt than any other generation and $8,000 more than Boomers did at the same age (in 2013 dollars)...

Median housing debt at age 40
$69,602 for Gen Xers in 2013
$61,437 for Boomers in 1995

The timing is better for Millennials. By delaying homeownership, they have less housing debt than Gen Xers did at the same age (in 2013 dollars)...

Median housing debt at age 27
$17,429 for Millennials in 2013
$22,255 for Gen Xers in 1998

"These data show that the timing of home purchases for each of the generations has contributed to very different debt profiles," concludes the report. Pew's analysis of debt also includes education loans, vehicle loans, and credit card debt.

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, The Complex Story of American Debt

More Renters in Single-Family Homes

"The recent growth of single-family rentals is unprecedented," reports the Joint Center for Housing Studies in its report, The State of the Nation's Housing 2015.

According to data from the American Housing Survey, the number of renters who live in a single-family house grew 30 percent between 2007 and 2013. This is twice as fast as the growth in renter households overall and far surpasses the 8 percent increase in the number of renters who live in multi-family buildings...

Renter-occupied housing units in 2013 (and % change since 2007)

Total renter-occupied housing units: 40,201,000 (15%)

Renter-occupied single-family homes: 14,222,000 (30%)

Renter-occupied units in multi-family buildings: 24,420,000 (8%)

Renter-occupied mobile homes: 1,559,000 (4%)

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, The State of the Nation's Housing 2015; and Census Bureau, American Housing Survey

Nearly 6 Million More Renters, 2010 to 2015

The number of renter-occupied housing units is growing by the millions, while the number of owner-occupied housing units is shrinking. Here is the number of owner and renter households in the United States in the second quarter of 2015 (and the numerical change since the second quarter of 2010)...

Owners: 74,407,000 (-328,000)
Renters: 42,878,000 (+5,945,000)

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

School Start Times: Early Is the Norm for Nation's Middle and High Schools

Although the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends the school day begin no earlier than 8:30 a.m. for middle and high school students, the average school start time for public middle and high schools was an earlier 8:03 in the 2011-12 school year. Only 18 percent of the nation's middle and high schools started the day at 8:30 a.m. or later.

By state, average start times ranged from 7:40 a.m. in Louisiana to 8:31 in North Dakota and 8:33 in Alaska. The percentage of schools with 8:30 a.m. or later start times ranged from none in Hawaii, Mississippi, and Wyoming to 77 percent in Alaska and 78.5 percent in North Dakota.

Source: CDC, School Start Times for Middle School and High School Students—United States, 2011-12 School Year

Big Shift in Attitudes toward Racial Equality

The percentage of Americans who think the United States needs to continue making changes to give Blacks equal rights with Whites leaped from 46 to 59 percent in the past year, according to a Pew Research Center survey.

The string of highly publicized, brutal encounters between police and Black citizens over the past year appears to have been a light bulb moment for non-Hispanic Whites. The percentage of non-Hispanic Whites who think more change is needed grew from just 39 percent in 2014 to the 53 percent majority in 2015. Among Hispanics, the number climbed from 54 to 70 percent. Most Blacks already felt more change was needed, and that figure grew from 79 to 86 percent.

Only 42 percent of Republicans think more change is necessary, but this is up from 27 percent a year earlier. Among Democrats, the figure climbed from 67 to 78 percent. The 55 percent majority of political independents now feel more change is needed, up from 42 percent in 2014.

Source: Pew Research Center, Across Racial Lines, More Say Nation Needs to Make Changes to Achieve Racial Equality

Survey Finds 68% of Formerly Uninsured Now Have Health Insurance

Health insurance coverage has expanded greatly because of the Affordable Care Act. According to a longitudinal study of California's uninsured by the Kaiser Family Foundation, an impressive 68 percent of California residents who lacked health insurance in the summer of 2013—prior to the implementation of the ACA—were covered by health insurance when re-interviewed in the spring of 2015.

What a difference health insurance makes. When first interviewed in 2013, fully 86 percent of the uninsured said it was difficult to afford health care. It was their top financial concern. Among those who had gained health insurance by 2015, only 49 percent still felt this way, and health care costs now ranked 4th as a financial concern after rent/mortgage, utilities, and gasoline. Among those who were still uninsured in 2015, paying for health care continued to be their number-one financial concern, a problem for 85 percent.

Who remains uninsured two years after the rollout of the ACA? Fully 70 percent of the still-uninsured are Hispanic. Among them, 58 percent are undocumented immigrants and ineligible for coverage. Many Hispanics who are eligible but still uninsured say they're afraid to sign up because it might draw attention to a family member's immigration status.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, Survey Finds 68% of Previously Uninsured Californians Now Have Coverage

Wine Is Drink of Choice for College Grads

The stereotype is true: the higher the educational attainment, the greater the preference for wine over beer, according to Gallup. Here is what college graduates say they drink most often (compared to the average American)...

44% of college grads most often drink wine (34%)
35% of college grads most often drink beer (42%)
18% of college grads most often drink liquor (21%)

As the educational attainment of the population has increased, alcoholic beverage spending has shifted toward wine, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Between 2000 and 2013, the share of the alcohol dollar devoted to beer fell from 47 to 42 percent, while the share devoted to wine climbed from 26 to 30 percent.

Source: Gallup, Drinking Highest among Educated, Upper-Income Americans

Fewer Millennials Live Independently

Young adults aged 25 to 34 are less likely to live independently than were their counterparts in 2007, according to an analysis of Current Population Survey data by Pew Research Center. Pew defines independent living as heading one's own household or living in a household headed by a spouse, unmarried partner, or other nonrelative. 

The percentage of 25-to-34-year-olds who live independently is 86 percent among those with a bachelor's degree, 79 percent among those with some college, and 75 percent among those with a high school diploma or less education. Regardless of educational attainment, the figures are lower in 2015 than in 2007. 

Behind the decline in independent living is less money. Median weekly earnings for 25-to-34-year-olds in 2015 are below the 2007 level, after adjusting for inflation...

Median weekly earnings of 25-to-34-year-olds
Bachelor's or more: $951 in 2015, still less than the $966 of 2007.
Some college: $560 in 2015, well below the $640 of 2007.
High school or less: $500 in 2015, below the $527 in 2007.

Source: Pew Research Center, More Millennials Living with Family Despite Improved Job Market

The IRA Tax Shelter

Is the IRA more of a tax shelter for the affluent rather than a vehicle for retirement savings? It looks that way. According to an Employee Benefit Research Institute analysis, few IRA owners aged 60 or older take money out of their account until they reach the age (70.5) when withdrawals become mandatory...

Percentage of traditional IRA owners who took a withdrawal in 2013
Aged 60 to 64: 18.9%
Aged 65 to 70: 27.2%
Aged 71 to 79: 83.6%
Aged 80-plus: 85.8%

Once they reach the mandatory age, according to EBRI, most IRA owners withdraw only the minimum required. Just one in four traditional IRA owners aged 71 or older withdrew more than the minimum amount from his or her account in 2013.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, IRA Withdrawals in 2013 and Longitudinal Results 2010-2013

Workers with Paid Sick Leave

Only 61 percent of the nation's private-sector workers get paid sick leave. Here is the percentage with paid sick leave by occupation...

88% of managers
78% of professionals
73% of office workers
67% of installation/maintenance/repair workers
57% of production workers
55% of transportation workers
53% of sales workers
39% of service workers
36% of construction/extraction/farming workers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Benefits in the United States—March 2015

Growing Wealth Gap Between Old and Young

The old are wealthier than the young, a pattern that has long been true. But the gap is growing, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, researchers compared median wealth in 1989 and 2013 for households in three broad age groups. Here are the trends (in 2013 dollars)...

Old (aged 62+): +40%
Median wealth in 2013: $209,590
Median wealth in 1989: $149,728

Middle-aged (aged 40-61): –31%
Median wealth in 2013: $106,094
Median wealth in 1989: $153,759

Young (under age 40): –28%
Median wealth in 2013: $14,220
Median wealth in 1989: $19,830

The old are doing better, and the middle-aged and young are falling behind. There's more bad news: "Baby boomers, who are now retiring in droves, are likely to be less well-off than their 'old' counterparts in the two previous generations," the Fed researchers conclude. "And it looks as if members of the next two generations—Generation X and Generation Y (the millennials)—might also end up less wealthy than the generation before them."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The Demographics of Wealth—How Age, Education and Race Separate Thrivers from Strugglers in Today's Economy, Essay No. 3: Age, Birth Year and Wealth

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2015

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, second quarter 2015: 45.2%

The homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 30 to 34 fell in the second quarter of 2015 to an all-time low of 45.2 percent. Historically, homeownership became the norm in the 30-to-34 age group—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. In the past year, the homeownership rate of the age group fell 1.3 percentage points. Is this the bottom for the age group? Only time will tell. 

The new age of first-time home buying is 35 to 39, but even this age group has been slipping toward the 50-percent threshold. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds stood at 55.1 percent in the second quarter of 2015—the same as in the first quarter and the age group's record low. Since peaking in the first quarter of 2007, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds has fallen by more than 10 percentage points. 

Nationally, the homeownership rate fell to 63.4 percent in the second quarter of 2015, down from 64.7 percent a year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Household Income Stable in June

Household income fell slightly in June 2015, but the decline was not statistically significant. June's median household income stood at $55,132, according to Sentier Research, about the same as the previous month after adjusting for inflation. The June 2015 median was 2.1 percent higher than the June 2014 median and 6.4 percent above the $51,804 median of August 2011, which was the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Although median annual household income did not change significantly in June, we continue to see a general upward trend in income since the low-point reached in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in June 2015 was 0.8 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 2.7 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 3.8 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for June 2015 stood at 96.2 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: June 2015

Number of Unauthorized Immigrants Has Declined

Despite all the talk about "illegals" in the United States, their number has declined slightly since the peak year of 2007, according to Pew Research Center. There were an estimated 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in 2014, down from the peak of 12.2 million in 2007. During the Great Recession and its aftermath, fewer unauthorized immigrants have been crossing our borders.

The 62 percent majority of unauthorized immigrant adults have been in the United States for at least 10 years, according to a 2012 analysis by Pew. More than one in three (38 percent) live with their children born in the United States.

Source: Pew Research Center, Unauthorized Immigrant Population Stable for Half a Decade

Decline in Teen Sexual Activity

Today's teenagers are not as sexually active as teens were a decade or two ago. That explains, in part, why the birth rate of 15-to-19-year-olds fell 57 percent between 1991 (the peak year) and 2013. Among never-married females aged 15 to 19, the percentage who have ever had sexual intercourse fell from 51 percent in 1988 to 44 percent in 2011-13. Among their male counterparts, the figure fell from 60 to 47 percent.

Another reason for the decline in the teen birth rate is the increased use of emergency contraception. Twenty-two percent of sexually active 15-to-19-year-old females in 2011-13 had ever used emergency contraception, up from only 8 percent who had ever used it in 2002.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing of Teenagers Aged 15-19 in the United States

Private Sector Health Insurance Costs in 2014

Among workers in the private sector, this is how much health insurance cost in 2014...

Average total premium
Employee only: $5,832
Employee-plus-one: $11,503
Employee and family: $16,655

Average employee contribution
Employee only: $1,234
Employee-plus-one: $3,097
Employee and family: $4,518

Average deductible
Individual deductible: $1,353
Family deductible: $2,640

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Statistical Brief #477, Results from the 2014 MEPS-IC Private-Sector National Tables

Why Mid-Term Elections Are Different

The demographics of mid-term elections are strikingly different from the demographics of presidential elections. In mid-terms, older non-Hispanic Whites overwhelm the polls. In presidential elections, younger and more diverse voters are in control. Take a look...

Non-Hispanic Whites aged 45+ as a share of voters
2014 mid-term election: 55%
2012 presidential election: 48%
2010 mid-term election: 54%
2008 presidential election: 47%

Older non-Hispanic Whites dominate mid-term elections because they are much more likely to vote. In the 2014 mid-term, fully 56 percent of non-Hispanic Whites aged 45 or older cast a vote. In contrast, only 31 percent of younger non-Hispanic Whites and 33 percent of minorities went to the polls. (Note: calculations of voting rates are based on citizen populations.)

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2014

The Geography of Cuban Americans

United States
Total U.S. population: 316,128,839
Hispanic population: 53,986,412 (17% of the total population)
Cuban-origin Hispanics: 2,013,155 (4% of the Hispanic population)

Florida
Number of Cuban-origin Hispanics who live in Florida: 1,349,136
Percent of Cuban-origin Hispanics who live in Florida: 67%
Cuban-origin Hispanics as a percentage of Florida's population: 6.9%

Miami
Number of Cuban-origin Hispanics who live in the Miami metropolitan area: 1,073,372
Percent of Cuban-origin Hispanics who live in the Miami metropolitan area: 53%
Cuban-origin Hispanics as a percentage of Miami's population: 18%

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey

Health Status: Education Matters (Even More)

Higher education leads to better health. Social scientists have known this for a long time. But a National Bureau of Economic Research analysis shows that the relationship is even stronger than we thought.

Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NBER researchers compared self-reported health with the results of actual medical tests to determine whether educated respondents more accurately self-report their health. They do. The study found accurate self-reporting of health status rising with education, with less-educated respondents underreporting their health problems. The problems examined were smoking, obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes.

To date, many of the studies examining the effect of educational attainment on health have been based on self-reports. This is a problem, say the researchers. They conclude: "Our results imply that the educational gradient in health, when measured using self-reported health, tends to understate the true gradient." Measuring the true size of the educational gradient in health may require objective tests rather than self-reports.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Health Disparities Across Education: The Role of Differential Reporting Error, NBER Working Paper 21317 ($5)

Who Is a "Typical" American?

The 69 percent majority of Americans think of themselves as a "typical" American, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute. Older Americans are far more likely to see themselves as typical (78%) than young adults (55%). By race and Hispanic origin, here's who thinks they're typical...

Whites: 77%

Blacks: 61%

Hispanics: 48%

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Most Americans Believe Protests Make the Country Better; Support Decreases Dramatically among Whites if Protesters are Identified as Black 

Interest in Space Exploration

Americans are "meh" about space exploration. The 45 percent plurality of the public is only moderately interested in outer space. Another 33 percent are not at all interested. The smallest share—22 percent—are enthusiasts very interested in space exploration. Men are twice as likely as women to be enthusiasts...

Very interested in space exploration
Men: 31%
Women: 15%

Moderately interested in space exploration
Men: 46%
Women: 44%

Not at all interested in space exploration
Men: 23%
Women: 41%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Changes in Living Arrangements, 1967 to 2014

The living arrangements of adults have changed dramatically in nearly every age group over the past half century. A new set of tables available from the Census Bureau allows you to see at a glance the changes since 1967...

Living with Mom and Dad (18 to 24): Surprisingly, men in this age group are no more likely to live with their parents today than their counterparts were in 1967—57 percent in 2014 and 58 percent in 1967. Women, however, are more likely to live with Mom and Dad as they postpone marriage—51 percent were living in their parents' home in 2014, up from 42 percent in 1967.

Staying single (25 to 34): Men and women in this age group are much less likely to be married and living with a spouse today than in 1967. For women, the married share fell from 83 to 47 percent between 1967 and 2014. For men the figure plummeted from 83 to 38 percent.

Stability, sort of (35 to 64): This is the age group with the most stability in living arrangements. Nevertheless, between 1967 and 2014 the married share fell substantially among both men (from 86 to 65 percent) and women (from 77 to 62 percent).

More couples (65 to 74): The married share of women in this age group climbed from 45 to 57 percent between 1967 and 2014, while men's married share barely changed (falling from 79 to 75 percent). Behind the change for women is increasing life expectancy, delaying widowhood.

Living alone (75-plus): Men and women who have been widowed are now more likely to live alone than with other relatives (mostly adult children). In 1967, the reverse was true.

Source: Census Bureau, Table AD-3, Living Arrangements of Adults, 1967 to Present

The Impact of Behavioral Change on Life Expectancy

American life expectancy is rising. The increase is due in part to better medications and improved medical interventions. It's also due to changes in behavior. How much has good behavior by the American public contributed to the rise in life expectancy over the past half century? How much has bad behavior limited the rise? Those questions have now been answered by researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Between 1960 and 2010, life expectancy at birth in the U.S. grew 6.9 years. To determine how much of that rise was due to behavioral change, the researchers examined the impact on life expectancy of six factors: smoking, drinking, motor vehicle fatalities, obesity, poisonings, and firearms. Here's how changes in each of those behaviors affected life expectancy over the past half century...

Impact on life expectancy (in years)
+1.26 years from less smoking
+0.43 years from safer motor vehicles
+0.06 years from less heavy drinking
-1.00 years from more obesity
-0.26 years from more drug overdoses
-0.03 years from more firearm deaths

The gains from good behavior were nearly offset by declines due to bad behavior. Nevertheless, the researchers conclude, "our study demonstrates the enormous benefits of public health and behavior change in improving population health."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, How Behavioral Changes Have Affected U.S. Population Health Since 1960, NBER Working Paper #20631

Attitudes Toward Undocumented Immigrants

The 59 percent majority of Americans agrees that the United States should take stronger measures to keep undocumented immigrants out of the country. Here are the percentages by generation...

U.S. should take stronger measures to exclude undocumented immigrants (% agreeing)
Millennials: 48%
Generation X: 62%
Baby Boomers: 63%
Older Americans: 75%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Household Income Rises in May 2015

Household income is on an upward trend. Median household income climbed to $55,192 in May 2015, according to Sentier Research. This was 0.7 percent higher than the April median, a statistically significant increase. The May 2015 median was 3.2 percent higher than the May 2014 median and 6.9 percent above the $51,639 median of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"We are now at a point where we have recovered almost all of the losses in median income that followed the end of the recession in June 2009," says Sentier's Gordon Green. He notes, however, that the median is still lower than in December 2007, the beginning of the recession. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in May 2015 was just 0.4 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 2.2 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 3.4 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for May 2015 stood at 96.6 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: May 2015

Smartphones Still Play Second Fiddle to Computers

When smartphone users browse products and pricing online, 21 percent do so mainly on their smartphone and a much larger 62 percent mainly use their computer. The numbers are even more lopsided when buying online: 11 percent rely mainly on their smartphone and 74 percent on their computer (the remainder use both equally or do not browse/shop online). Here are the percentages who rely mainly on their phone for browsing/shopping online, by age...

Browsing products and pricing online
Aged 18 to 29: 24%
Aged 30 to 49: 27%
Aged 50 to 64: 14%
Aged 65-plus: 8%

Making online purchases
Aged 18 to 29: 11%
Aged 30 to 49: 16%
Aged 50 to 64: 6%
Aged 65-plus: 4%

Source: Gallup, Most Smartphone Users Still Rely on Computer for Web Purchases

Are Children Under Age 5 Minority-Majority?

The minority share of children under age 5 crossed an important threshold in 2014, according to the Census Bureau. For the first time, Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities outnumbered non-Hispanic Whites in the age group—50.2 percent to 49.8 percent. But there's a problem with these figures. The Census Bureau's race-and-Hispanic-origin estimates of the population under age 5 do not match vital statistics data.

The Census Bureau has estimated that there were 19.9 million children under age 5 in the United States in 2014, a number nearly matching the 19.8 million births recorded in the 2010-to-2014 time period (the population under age 5 in 2014). The Census Bureau's under-5 total population estimate aligns with vital statistics data. The mismatch occurs in the race-and-Hispanic-origin distribution of that population. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the minority share of births from 2010 to 2014 was 45.9 percent. The non-Hispanic White share of births was 54.1 percent. Is the nation's under-5 population minority-majority? Perhaps not yet.

Who Works at Home?

Overall, 23 percent of employed Americans work at home on an average work day. The figure is about the same for men and women and for full- and part-time workers. By educational attainment, however, there are big differences in who works at home...

Percent of employed who work at home on an average work day
11.5% of those with less than a high school diploma
13.8% of those with a high school diploma only
17.5% of those with some college or an associate's degree
39.1% of those with a bachelor's degree or more

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey—2014 Results

What Does It Take To Be Truly American?

Percentage of Americans who think that to be truly American it is "very important" to be a Christian, by generation...

Total people: 33%
Millennials: 19%
Generation X: 28%
Baby Boomers: 40%
Older Americans: 57%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Attitudes toward Science: The Age Effect

Another amazing feat by Pew Research Center, the nonpartisan, data-driven, social science research powerhouse. Pew researchers have analyzed their own data on the public's attitudes toward science and correlated those attitudes with six characteristics: political ideology, age, educational attainment, gender, race and ethnicity, and religious affiliation. In doing so they have revealed how each of those characteristics—independent of the others—influences attitudes. It turns out, age is one of the biggies, influencing views on a number of scientific issues after controlling for the other characteristics. Here are some examples...

Prioritize alternative energy development over oil, coal, and gas
Younger adults: favor
Older adults: oppose

Childhood vaccines should be required
Younger adults: Parents should decide
Older adults: yes

Earth is warming due to human activity
Younger adults: yes
Older adults: no

Humans have evolved due to natural processes
Younger adults: yes
Older adults: no

This report should be required reading for politicians and government policymakers. It's social science at its best, revealing the underlying forces at work in American society.

Source: Pew Research Center, American, Politics, and Science Issues

Marital Status of Men Aged 30-to-34 Depends on Earnings

For men, the 30-to-34 age group is the age of marrying. That's when the percentage of men who are currently married rises above 50 percent. But that's an average. In fact, the marital status of men in the age group depends on how much they earn, with the married share rising in lock-step with earnings. (The relationship between earnings and marital status is not found for their female counterparts.) Here are the 2014 statistics...

Men aged 30 to 34 who are currently married, by earnings
Total men 30 to 34:   50.4%
Less than $5,000:     26.3%
$5,000 to $14,999:    31.1%
$15,000 to $24,999:  37.8%
$25,000 to $39,999:  53.0%
$40,000 to $74,999:  61.2%
$75,000 to $99,999:  66.4%
$100,000 or more:     72.7%

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements

Most Nonmetro Counties Are Losing Population

Two-thirds of the nation's nonmetropolitan counties lost population between 2010 and 2014, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. The number of nonmetro counties with declining populations reached an historic high of 1,310 in the 2010-14 time period.

Population decline is caused by two factors: more people moving out than in, and more deaths than births. The number of nonmetro counties experiencing the "double jeopardy" of net-outmigration and natural decrease climbed from 387 in 2003-07 to 622 in 2010-14.

According to a Demo Memo analysis of population growth by metropolitan status, the nation's largest metropolitan areas, with a population of 1 million or more, grew 4.2 percent between 2010 and 2014. Smaller metropolitan areas grew 2.7 percent. Nonmetropolitan counties as a whole lost 0.2 percent of their population during those years.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Two-Thirds of U.S. Nonmetro Counties Lost Population over 2010-14

Internet Use by Age, 2015

Percentage of Americans who use the Internet in 2015 (and in 2000), by age...

Total adults: 84% (52%)
Aged 18-29: 96% (70%)
Aged 30-49: 93% (61%)
Aged 50-64: 81% (46%)
Aged 65-plus: 58% (14%)

Source: Pew Research Center, Americans Internet Access: 2000-2015

Baby Boom in North Dakota

From 2009 to 2014, percent change in number of births in...

United States:  -3.5%
North Dakota: 26.2%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014

The U.S. population grew by 9.5 million between 2010 and 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Non-Hispanic Whites accounted for just 5 percent of the gain, and the nation's minorities accounted for the other 95 percent. In 2014, the minority share of the population climbed to 37.9 percent, up from 36.2 percent in 2010. Here are the 2014 estimates by race and Hispanic origin...

Total population: 318,857,056
The U.S. population grew by 3.1 percent between 2010 and 2014, a gain of 9.5 million.

Non-Hispanic Whites: 197,870,516 (62.1%)
The non-Hispanic White population grew by a minuscule 0.2 percent between 2010 and 2014, a gain of less than 500,000. The non-Hispanic White share of the population fell from 63.8 to 62.1 percent during those years.

Hispanics: 55,387,539 (17.4%)
The Hispanic population grew by 9.1 percent between 2010 and 2014, a gain of 4.6 million. Hispanics accounted for 49 percent of the nation's population growth between 2010 and 2014.

Blacks (alone or in combination): 45,672,250 (14.3%)
The Black population grew by 5.4 percent between 2010 and 2014, a gain of 2.3 million.

Asians (alone or in combination): 20,250,250 (6.4%)
The Asian population grew by 13.7 percent between 2010 and 2014, a gain of 2.4 million.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates 2014

Largest Share of Households Is Wireless-Only

In the last half of 2014, Americans crossed a threshold. The plurality of households now has only cell phones, surpassing for the first time the percentage with both cell and landline phones. In July-December 2014, fully 45.4 percent of households were wireless-only and 42.7 percent had both landline and cell phones. Only 8.4 percent of households are landline only and another 3.2 percent have no telephone. By age of householder, these are the wireless-only households...

Wireless-only households, July-December 2014
Total households: 45.4%
Aged 18 to 24: 58.0%
Aged 25 to 29: 69.2%
Aged 30 to 34: 67.4%
Aged 35 to 44: 53.7%
Aged 45 to 64: 36.8%
Aged 65-plus: 17.1%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, July-December 2014

ACA Putting a Dent in the Uninsured

The Affordable Care Act is making a difference, according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The percentage of Americans without health insurance fell from 14.4 percent in 2013 to 11.5 percent in 2014. That 2.9 percentage point decline shows the ACA is moving the needle. Among people aged 18 to 64, the decline was a larger 4.1 percentage points—from 20.4 percent uninsured in 2013 to 16.3 percent in 2014. Among 19-to-25-year-olds, the percentage without health insurance fell 6.5 percentage points—from 26.5 percent in 2013 to 20.0 percent in 2014. Here is the percentage without health insurance by age in 2014...

Percent without health insurance
Total people:     11.5%
Under age 18:     5.5%
Aged 18 to 24:  18.3%
Aged 25 to 34:  22.6%
Aged 35 to 44:  17.6%
Aged 45 to 64:  11.7%
Aged 65-plus:     0.8%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 2014

Money For Children and Grandchildren

Older Americans give a lot of money to their children and grandchildren—enough to "be considered a major expenditure category," according to an Employee Benefit Research Institute study. In the study, EBRI researcher Sudipto Banerjee examines cash transfers made by older householders to children and grandchildren during their lifetime rather than after death.

The data come from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study, which tracks a representative sample of householders aged 50 or older. Cash transfers are defined as "giving money, helping pay bills, or covering specific types of costs such as those for medical care or insurance, schooling, down payment for a home, rent, etc. The financial help can be considered support, a gift or a loan." The results...

• Many provide financial help. The 51 percent majority of householders aged 50 to 64 in 2010 had transferred cash to children or grandchildren during the past two years. Although the share of older householders who did so declined with advancing age, even among those aged 85 or older a substantial 28 percent had transferred cash.  
• Thousands of dollars are provided. The average cash transfer ranged from a low of $4,787 for householders aged 85-plus to a high of $8,350 for 50-to-64-year-olds.
• The affluent give more. Among 50-to-64-year-olds, the percentage who gave ranged from a low of 31 percent for those in the lowest income quartile (average amount provided = $7,419) to a high of 70 percent for those in the highest income quartile (average amount provided = $27,378).

"Transfers are actually a significant expense when compared with other items in a household budget," concludes Banerjee, "though they are not traditionally thought of as a budget item." The report examines trends in cash transfers from 1998 to 2010 and also looks at the much less common transfer of cash from younger to older family members.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Intra-Family Cash Transfers in Older American Households

How Many Women Are Uninsured when Giving Birth?

Not many, thanks to Medicaid. That's because low-income women become eligible for Medicaid when they become pregnant. With the average hospital delivery costing roughly $10,000, Medicaid is a financial life saver—not to mention the medical benefits. Among women who gave birth in 2009, take a look at how their health insurance status changed from the month before they became pregnant to the day of delivery...

• The percentage of women with no health insurance fell from 23.4% in the month before they became pregnant to just 1.5% on the day of delivery. 
• The percentage of women with Medicaid coverage climbed from 16.6% in the month before they became pregnant to 43.9% on the day of delivery.
• The percentage of women with private health insurance fell slightly, from 59.9% in the month before they became pregnant to 54.6% on the day of delivery.

Source: CDC, Patterns of Health Insurance Coverage Around the Time of Pregnancy among Women with Live-Born Infants—Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, 29 States, 2009

Births by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014

The number of births ticked up in 2014, rising by 1 percent in the past year. This was the first increase since 2007, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Births to Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Whites all increased by 1 percent. For Asians, the gain was 6 percent. Here are the numbers in 2014 (and percent distribution) by race and Hispanic origin...

Total:      3,985,924 (100.0%)
Asian:        282,724 (   7.1%)
Black:        589,016 ( 14.8%)
Hispanic:   914,116 ( 22.9%)
White:     2,146,482 ( 53.9%)

Note: Blacks and Whites are non-Hispanic.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2014

Uptick in Births in 2014

The annual number of births in the United States increased in 2014, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The 3,985,924 babies born in 2014 exceeded 2013 births by 53,743—a statistically significant 1 percent increase. The increase was the first since 2007, when births reached an all time high of 4,316,233. 

Drilling down into the numbers reveals a dramatically changed pattern of childbearing in the United States. The fertility rate in 2014 inched up to 62.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, a bit higher than last year's record low of 62.5. This was the first increase in the fertility rate since 2007. But for teenagers, the birth rate fell to a new historic low. For women aged 20 to 24, the birth rate fell to a new historic low. For women aged 25 to 29, the birth rate was essentially unchanged from the record low reached in 2013. 

The action is occurring among women aged 30 or older. Among women in their thirties and forties, birth rates are rising and so are births. Many of these women are having their first child after years of delay. The first-birth rate increased for women aged 30 to 39, the government reports. But the overall first-birth rate hit a new record low in 2014 because younger women are reluctant to have children. Births increased in 2014 only because older women are playing catch up. The baby bust may have hit bottom, but at the bottom is where it remains.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2014

Fewer Jobs Near Average Metro Resident

Residents of the nation's major metropolitan areas live near fewer jobs than they did in 2000, according to a study by the Brookings Institution. Using census tract data for the 96 largest metro areas, the Brookings researchers compared the number of jobs within the typical commute for each metro in 2000 and 2012. Of the 96 metro areas analyzed, only 29 gained jobs during those years within the metro's typical commuting distance. The typical commuting distance ranged from a low of 4.7 miles in Stockton, California, to a high of 12.8 miles in Atlanta.

The average city resident was within typical commuting distance of 605,367 jobs in 2012, according to the analysis. This was 3.5 percent fewer jobs than in 2000. The average suburban resident was within typical commuting distance of 207,158 jobs—7.3 percent fewer than in 2000. The Brookings report includes details for each of the 96 metro areas.

The loss in job proximity was worse for some than for others. Hispanics saw the number of jobs within their metro's typical commute decline by 17 percent. The loss was 14 percent for Blacks and 6 percent for Whites.

Source: Brookings Institution, The Growing Distance Between People and Jobs in Metropolitan America

The Cost of Day Care

Among the nation's 20 million preschoolers, 60 percent participate in at least one weekly nonparental care arrangement—that's 13 million children being cared for by day care centers, grandparents, other relatives, or someone not related to them. Among families with out-of-pocket costs for this service, most pay dearly for the care...

Average hourly out-of-pocket cost for primary child care arrangement
Care by a relative: $4.18
Care by a nonrelative: $5.28
Day care center: $6.70

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Program Participation, from the National Household Education Surveys Program of 2012

Occupations with a Median Age of 50-Plus

The median age of the nation's employed was 42.3 in 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some occupations have much older workers than others. In a handful of occupations, the median age of the employed exceeds 50...

• Chief executives
• Farmers and ranchers
• Architectural/engineering managers
• Tax preparers
• Clergy
• Judges
• Crossing guards
• Travel agents
• Real estate brokers
• Postal service clerks and mail carriers
• Construction and building inspectors
• Sewing machine operators
• Tailors
• Water treatment plant operators
• Bus drivers
• Train engineers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employed Persons by Detailed Occupation and Age

Homeownership Projected to Decline

The nation's homeownership rate will fall from 65.1 percent in 2010 to to 61.3 percent in 2030, according to a study by the Urban Institute. Behind the decline are the financial struggles of young adults and the growing minority share of the population. The homeownership rate is projected to decline in all but the oldest age group, with the biggest losses occurring among householders ranging in age from 35 to 64.

Homeownership rate by age of householder in 2030 (and percentage point change, 2010-30)
Aged 15 to 24: 13.4% (-2.7)
Aged 25 to 34: 37.8% (-4.2)
Aged 35 to 44: 55.2% (-7.1)
Aged 45 to 54: 64.6% (-6.9)
Aged 55 to 64: 69.6% (-7.7)
Aged 65 to 74: 73.9% (-6.3)
Aged 75 to 84: 74.4% (-3.5)
Aged 85-plus: 68.5% (2.3)

Source: Urban Institute, A Lower Homeownership Rate is the New Normal

Only 12 Percent Do Not Know Any Gays or Lesbians

Eighty-eight percent of Americans know people who are gay or lesbian, according to a Pew Research Center survey, with about the same percentage of Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers saying they know gays and lesbians. Among Americans aged 70 or older, a smaller 79 percent say they know people who are gay or lesbian.

When asked whether any close friends or family members are gay or lesbian, the 52 percent majority of the public says yes. Here are the percentages by generation...

Percent with close friends or family members who are gay or lesbian
Millennials: 58%
Gen Xers: 57%
Boomers: 50%
Older: 35%

Source: Pew Research Center, Support for Same-Sex Marriage at Record High, but Key Segments Remain Opposed

Why Some People Return to Small Towns

"How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree?" That question, posed in song lyrics nearly a century ago as migration from rural to urban areas picked up steam, is the same one asked by the USDA's Economic Research Service in a study of what brings people back to rural communities they had fled as young adults.

To answer the question, USDA researchers interviewed 300 attendees at high school reunions in remote rural communities. The communities studied were a distinct type: geographically disadvantaged nonmetropolitan counties that are losing population because of net out-migration. Far from urban centers, these counties also lack scenic amenities, and more people are moving out than moving in. You've seen these places when you drive from point A to point B— the ones where you ask yourself, why would anyone in their right mind want to live here?

That's what the researchers wanted to know. To find out, they traveled to high school reunions in 21 remote rural communities and interviewed attendees, identifying those at the reunion who had left their community as young adults and then returned. Why did they come back? Family turned out to be the primary motivation. Most returnees had parents living in the community, and they wanted to raise their children in a small town surrounded by family. Being able to find a job facilitated the return move. For high school reunion attendees who had not moved back, low wages and the lack of jobs were big factors. Perhaps the most distinguishing characteristic between those who had returned and those who would never return was the value they placed on small-town life. Returnees valued knowing everyone. Those who had no desire to return valued urban amenities and the anonymity of city life.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Factors Affecting Former Residents' Returning to Rural Communities

Most U.S. Population Growth is in Drought-Stricken Counties

More than half the nation's population growth since 2000 has occurred in drought-stricken areas of the United States, according to a study by the Brookings Institution. From 2000 to 2014, fully 57 percent of the nation's population increase occurred in counties experiencing drought. Among the 10 counties with the biggest population gain over the time period, 7 are experiencing drought.

Source: Brookings Institution, Population Surging in Drought-Stricken Areas

Fewer Nonmarital First Births for Men

The 72 percent majority of Americans believe moral values in the U.S. are getting worse, according to Gallup. But it's not hard to find statistics that suggest otherwise. Case in point: the percentage of fathers age 15 to 44 whose first birth was nonmarital is lower today than it was in the 1980s or 1990s...

Fathers aged 15 to 44 whose first birth was nonmarital
2000-2009: 36%
1990-1999: 40%
1980-1989: 42%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Three Decades of Nonmarital First Births among Fathers Aged 15-44 in the United States

Most Homeowners Are Aged 55 or Older

The 51 percent majority of the nation's homeowners are aged 55 or older, according to the Census Bureau, up from 43 percent in 2006... 

Homeowners by age in 2014 (and percent change since 2006)
Total owners: 74,427,000 (-2.2%)
Under age 35:  8,943,000 (-16.8%)
Aged 35 to 44: 11,808,000 (-22.9%)
Aged 45 to 54: 15,683,000 (-11.0%)
Aged 55 to 64: 16,383,000 (14.4%)
Aged 65-plus: 21,609,000 (19.2%)

Behind the increase in the number of homeowners aged 55 or older is the aging of the baby-boom generation. Behind the decline in the number of homeowners under age 35 is the plunging homeownership rate among young adults.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

New Data Reveals Missing Income of Older Americans

Older Americans are the only segment of the population that did not lose ground during the Great Recession. The median income of households headed by people aged 65 or older climbed 12 percent between 2007 and 2013, after adjusting for inflation. Every other age group saw its median household income decline, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

Now we find out that the 65-plus population has been faring even better than those numbers suggest—9.1 percent better, in fact. That's because the Current Population Survey income statistics do not include withdrawals from IRAs or 401(k)s unless they are taken as annuities. According to an analysis by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), when all withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s are counted, the aggregate income of the 65-plus population rises by 9.1 percent. The IRA and 401(k) income received by the elderly rises by 250 percent.

The Census Bureau is well aware of this shortcoming in its income statistics and is doing something about it. For this analysis, EBRI used the results of a Census Bureau test of revised income questions included in the 2014 Current Population Survey. In years to come, we may see a rise in the incomes of the elderly because of this methodological change.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Examining the New Income Measure in the Current Population Survey

New Houses Are Getting Bigger

Median square feet of floor area in new single-family houses sold, 1980 to 2014...

1980: 1,570
1990: 1,890
2000: 2,077
2010: 2,255
2014: 2,506

Source: Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing

Household Income Rises in April 2015

Median household income stood at $54,578 in April 2015, according to Sentier Research. This was 0.6 percent higher than the March median, a statistically significant increase. The April 2015 median was 3.0 percent higher than the April 2014 median and 6.2 percent above the $51,411 median of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Although the economic recovery officially began in June 2009," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "the recovery in household income did not begin to emerge until after August 2011." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in April 2015 was 1.1 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 2.9 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 4.0 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for April 2015 stood at 96.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: April 2015

Americans Overestimate Gay and Lesbian Population

The public is wildly wrong when it comes to estimating the size of the gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender population in the U.S., according to a Gallup survey. When asked to estimate the percentage of Americans who are gay or lesbian, 23 percent is the average guess. In fact, a much smaller 3.8 percent of adults identify themselves as LGBT.

Source: Gallup, Americans Greatly Overestimate Percent Gay, Lesbian in U.S.

Decline in Earnings of Men Aged 25 to 34

Median annual earnings of men aged 25 to 34 who work full-time by educational attainment, 2000 and 2013 (in 2013 dollars), and change in earnings...

Master's degree or more
2013: $66,770
2000: $74,260
Change: -$7,490

Bachelor's degree
2013: $51,940
2000: $60,570
Change: -$8,810

Associate's degree
2013: $41,750
2000: $47,320
Change: -$5,570

Some college, no degree
2013: $38,340
2000: $43,030
Change: -$4,690

High school graduate only
2013: $31,710
2000: $38,980
Change: -$7,270

Not a high school graduate
2013: $24,390
2000: $26,950
Change: -$2,560

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistic 2014

Uninsured Low-Income Americans by State

State of residence is becoming a matter of life and death for many. Low-income Americans who live in states that refused to expand Medicaid are far less likely to have health insurance than their counterparts in states that expanded Medicaid—and the gap is growing.

Among Americans aged 18 to 64 with incomes below 138% of poverty level, this is the percentage without health insurance as of April-September, 2014, by age and state Medicaid expansion status (and percentage-point change in uninsured from 2013 to September 2014)...

Aged 18 to 34
Medicaid expansion states: 26.1% (-9.1)
Non-expansion states: 44.9% (-0.7%)

Aged 35 to 44
Medicaid expansion states: 30.3% (-8.8)
Non-expansion states: 47.1% (-4.6)

Aged 45 to 64
Medicaid expansion states: 18.8% (-12.1)
Non-expansion states: 35.3% (-6.2)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Insurance Status by State Medicaid Expansion Status: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 2013-September 2014

City Growth Still Outpaces Rest of Nation

Between 2010 and 2014, the population of the nation's 749 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2014) climbed 4.3 percent while the remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 2.4 percent. City growth varies little by city size, with large cities of all sizes growing faster than elsewhere.

City population growth 2010-2014 by city size
1 million or more: 4.2%
500,000 to 999,999: 5.0%
250,000 to 499,999: 4.3%
200,000 to 249,999: 4.2%
150,000 to 199,999: 3.9%
100,000 to 149,999: 4.2%
50,000 to 99,999: 4.0%

A year-over-year analysis of population trends shows a repeating pattern. Between 2010 and 2014, large cities have grown 1.0 to 1.1 percent per year. The remainder of the United States has grown by a smaller 0.6 percent per year in every year since 2010.

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Totals: Vintage 2014

Homeownership Rate of Married Couples

Married couples are far more likely than other household types to own their home. In 2014, fully 80.3 percent of couples were homeowners versus 64.5 percent of all households. Married couples are more likely to be homeowners because two incomes are often needed to afford a downpayment and other costs of home buying and homeownership.

Even married couples are less likely to be homeowners than they once were. Over the past 10 years, the homeownership rate of married couples fell 3.7 percentage points. In some age groups, the decline was much larger...

Married-couple homeownership rate in 2014 (and percentage-point decline since 2004)
Total couples: 80.3% (-3.7)
Under age 35: 55.6% (-7.5)
Aged 35 to 44: 73.9% (-9.1)
Aged 45 to 54: 84.1% (-5.5)
Aged 55 to 64: 89.6% (-2.4)
Aged 65-plus: 91.5% (-1.2)

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

States with Minority Majority Public School Students

Among the nation's public school students in 2012, nearly half (49 percent) were Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Only 51 percent were non-Hispanic White. Minorities are the majority of public school students in 14 states and the District of Columbia...

Minority share of public school students
District of Columbia: 91.6%
Hawaii: 86.1%
California: 74.5%
New Mexico: 74.5%
Texas: 70.0%
Nevada: 63.2%
Arizona: 58.4%
Florida: 58.4%
Maryland: 58.2%
Georgia: 56.5%
Mississippi: 54.3%
Louisiana: 53.0%
New York: 52.8%
Delaware: 51.4%
New Jersey: 50.2%

In three states—Maine, West Virginia, and Vermont—minorities account for fewer than 10 percent of public school students.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2014

Population of Frontier and Remote Areas

How many Americans live in frontier and remote areas of the country? That depends on what the words "frontier" and "remote" mean. According to the USDA's Economic Research Service, there's more than one meaning. The ERS defines four levels of frontier and remote based on travel time to "high order" goods and services (advanced medical procedures, major household appliances, regional airport hubs—all typically found in urban areas of 50,000 or more people) and travel time to "low order" goods and services (the grocery stores, gas stations, and basic health care found in smaller urban areas).

To be defined as living in a Level 1 Frontier and Remote Area (the least remote), residents must have to travel at least 60 minutes to reach an urban area of 50,000 or more people. Levels  2, 3, and 4 (each increasingly remote) must meet that criteria and be a certain travel time away from ever smaller urban areas...

Level 1: At least 60 minutes of travel to reach an urban area of 50,000-plus
Level 2: At least 45 minutes of travel to reach an urban area of 25,000 to 49,999
Level 3: At least 30 minutes of travel to reach an urban area of 10,000 to 24,999
Level 4: At least 15 minutes of travel to reach an urban area of 2,500 to 9,999

Overall, 12.2 million Americans live in Frontier and Remote Areas. Although 52 percent of the land area of the United States is in these areas, only 4 percent of Americans live there. In Wyoming and Montana, the majority of the population lives in remote areas. In five states and the District of Columbia, no one lives in a remote area. At the link below you can access maps and Frontier and Remote Area data by state and zip code.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Frontier and Remote (FAR) Codes Pinpoint Nation's Most Remote Regions

Big Drop in Uninsured 50-to-64-Year-Olds

What has the Affordable Care Act done for the nation's most vulnerable—50-to-64-year-olds? This is the age when illness often strikes, and when it does those without health insurance can face catastrophic costs and medical bankruptcy. Until the Affordable Care Act, millions of 50-to-64-year-olds could not get coverage because of pre-existing conditions and prohibitive costs.

That was then. This is now: the percentage of 50-to-64-year-olds without health insurance fell from 11.6 to 8.0 percent between December 2013 and December 2014, according to a study by the AARP Public Policy Institute, a decline of nearly one-third. But some 50-to-64-year-olds are luckier than others. The lucky ones live in states that expanded Medicaid. The unlucky ones live in states that did not...

Uninsured rate for 50-to-64-year-olds by state of residence, December 2014
States expanding Medicaid: 5.5%
States not expanding Medicaid: 11.0%

Source: AARP Public Policy Institute, Monitoring the Impact of Health Reform on Americans Ages 50-64

Still Not Over the Great Recession

The Great Recession still lingers for many Americans, according to a survey by Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. When the nation's workers were asked how they would describe their recovery from the Great Recession, this is what they said...

16% have fully recovered
40% have somewhat recovered
21% were not affected by the Great Recession
15% have not yet begun to recover
8% may never recover

Of course these figures vary by age, with workers in their forties and fifties most likely to say they have not yet begun or may never recover (27 percent). Workers in their sixties are most likely to say they have fully recovered (20 percent). The biggest difference is in the percentage of workers who say they were not affected by the Great Recession. The figure is highest among workers in their twenties (30 percent) and lowest among workers in their sixties (11 percent).

More about workers and retirement can be found in the 16th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey of Workers: Retirement Throughout the Ages: Expectations and Preparations of American Workers

Most Hispanics Speak English Proficiently

Although most of the nation's Hispanics speak Spanish at home, a growing share speak English proficiently. Fully 68 percent of Hispanics aged 5 or older speak English very well, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of 2013 Census Bureau data. This figure is up from the 59 percent who spoke English proficiently in 2000. Here is the language status of Hispanics in 2013...

Language status of Hispanics aged 5 or older
26% speak only English at home
41% speak Spanish or another language at home and speak English very well
26% speak Spanish or another language at home and speak English less than very well
7% speak Spanish or another language at home and do not speak English

Source: Pew Research Center, English Proficiency on the Rise Among Latinos

Bad Teeth

What would dentists find if they traveled around the country and examined the dental health of a representative sample of Americans? They would find a lot of cavities.

That's what happened when, at the behest of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a team of dentists in mobile examination centers took a look inside the mouths of Americans aged 20 or older. The finding: 27 percent of adults have untreated tooth decay.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Dental Caries and Tooth Loss in Adults in the United States, 2011-2012

Boomers Waiting to Claim Social Security Benefits

Boomers are less likely to claim Social Security benefits at age 62 (the earliest possible age) than their counterparts were in 1985, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Here are the percentages of men and women who claimed Social Security at age 62 for those who turned 62 in 2010 (born in 1948) and those who turned 62 in 1985 (born in 1923)...

Born in 1948 and claimed Social Security benefits at age 62 in 2010
Men: 36%
Women: 40%

Born in 1923 and claimed Social Security benefits at age 62 in 1985
Men: 52%
Women: 64%

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Trends in Social Security Claiming

Earning Enough to Support a Family

Overall, 47 percent of the nation's workers say the income from their job alone is enough to meet their family's usual monthly expenses and bills. Here are the percentages by demographic characteristic...

Men: 58%
Women: 36%

Millennials: 44%
Gen Xers: 43%
Boomers: 52%

Not a college graduate: 43%
Bachelor's degree or more: 55%

Note: Millennials are 20-37; Gen Xers are 38-49, Boomers are 50-68.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

The Demographics Behind the Decline in Homeownership

Remember the boom in the housing market—those heady days when even young adults were eager to embrace home buying? Between 1995 and 2005, the homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 25 to 34 climbed from 45 to 50 percent. It seemed like the good times would never end. Then they did. Between 2005 and 2014, the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds plunged by 10 percentage points to just 40 percent.

An investigative report by Rachel Bogardus Drew of the Joint Center for Housing Studies explores the reasons for the decline, and her results show the Great Recession is not entirely to blame. Another factor is the changing demographics of the 25-to-34 age group, with two changes most important...

Marriage: The married-couple share of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds fell from 53 percent in 1995 to just 42 percent in 2014. Because two incomes are often necessary for homeownership, fewer married couples means fewer homeowners among young adults.

Minorities: The minority share of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds climbed from 28 to 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. With their lower homeownership rate and later age of first-time home buying, more Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics means fewer homeowners among young adults.

Those demographic factors were also at work during the boom times, but their impact was muted by favorable economic conditions. As the economics went south, so too did the homeownership rate of young adults. "The effect of favorable mortgage terms, affordable housing costs, and increases in income can be stronger drivers of tenure outcomes than socio-demographic characteristics, as evidenced during the housing boom," concludes the report. But when both the demographics and the economics put the kibosh on home buying, the report notes, "young adult homeownership rates can fall precipitously, as happened after the collapse of the housing market in 2005."

The demographic-economic double whammy may stifle the housing market for years to come.

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, Effect of Changing Demographics on Young Adult Homeownership Rates