Deaths Exceeded Births in 25 States in 2020

A new record was set in 2019. Deaths exceeded births in five states. Never before had so many states experienced negative natural increase, reports Kenneth M Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire. 

But wait. The numbers for 2020 make the 2019 record look quaint. Deaths exceeded births in half of all states in 2020, according to Johnson's analysis of data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The 25 states with more deaths than births in 2020 can be found in every region of the country including Arizona and Oregon in the West, Missouri and Wisconsin in the Midwest, Florida and South Carolina in the South, and Connecticut and Massachusetts in the Northeast. 

The trend could intensify in 2021. With births continuing to decline and Covid deaths in 2021 exceeding the 2020 number, Johnson predicts another year in which many states will experience negative natural increase, further reducing population growth in the United States. 

Source: Kenneth M. Johnson, Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

No Medical or Dental Visits in Past Year

One in five Americans have not visited a doctor or a dentist in the past year, according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). In an examination of trends in medical and dental visits, the MEPS report analyzes data from 2003 through 2018. Over those 15 years, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who did not see a dentist or a doctor in a year's time, with the figure rising from 18.9 percent in 2003 to 19.8 percent in 2018. 

Distribution of the population by dental and/or medical visits, 2018

37.1%: both medical and dental visits

34.4%: medical visits only

19.8%: neither dental nor medical visits

  8.6%: dental visits only

Males (24.1 percent) are more likely than females (15.8 percent) to have had neither a dental or a medical visit in the past year. By race and Hispanic origin, Hispanics are most likely not to have seen a doctor or dentist (31.0 percent), followed by non-Hispanic Blacks (25.3 percent), non-Hispanic others (23.9 percent), and non-Hispanic whites (14.6 percent). Note: The category non-Hispanic other includes Asians and American Indians. 

More than one in four people aged 18 to 64 (25.3 percent) did not have a medical or dental visit in 2018 compared with only 6.4 percent of those aged 65 or older. Among preschoolers (aged 0 to 5), the figure is 11.5 percent. Among school-aged children (aged 6 to 17), a larger 16.8 percent had not seen a doctor or dentist in the past 12 months. 

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Trends in the Number and Percentage of the Population with Any Dental or Medical Visits, 2003–2018

Two-Year Colleges Thrashed by Economy, Pandemic

College enrollment in the United States is on the decline. The number of undergraduates in the nation's colleges reached an all-time high in 2011 as widespread unemployment in the aftermath of the Great Recession boosted enrollment, especially at two-year schools. Since then, undergraduate college enrollment has fallen by 17 percent, with two-year schools getting the worst of it. 

The biggest drivers of enrollment at two-year colleges are current events—such as recessions and pandemics. When unemployment is high, two-year college enrollment grows. When jobs are plentiful or a pandemic sweeps the country, two-year enrollment falls. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, enrollment at two-year colleges surged. At the 2010 peak, 5.9 million students were enrolled at two-year schools. Since that peak, enrollment at two-year schools has fallen by 37 percent. Between 2019 and 2020, two-year schools saw the biggest decline in their enrollment on record—a loss of 588,000 students.

Two-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 3.7 million

2019: 4.3 million

2010: 5.9 million (peak year)

2006: 4.3 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2010 to 2020: -36.6%

Four-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 10.1 million

2019: 10.3 million

2016: 11.2 million (peak year)

2006: 9.6 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2016 to 2020: -9.6%

While current events have some influence on enrollment at four-year colleges, demographics play a bigger role. Enrollment of undergraduates at four-year schools did not peak until 2016, just as the number of 18-to-24-year-olds crested in the U.S. population. Since the 2016 peak year, enrollment has fallen just 10 percent—less than a third of the drop at two-year schools. The pandemic has had only a modest impact on four-year schools. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of undergraduates enrolled at four-year colleges fell by 2 percent versus the 14 percent decline at two-year schools.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's School Enrollment Data

Conflict between Urban and Rural

How much conflict is there between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas? When Pew Research Center asked this question in 16 different countries, a median of 23 percent said the conflicts are strong/very strong. In the United States, a larger 42 percent reported either very strong (12 percent) or strong (30 percent) conflicts between urban and rural populations. Here are the U.S. numbers...

Perceived level of conflict between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas

12% very strong

30% strong

48% not very strong

  9% none

The United States ranks third among the 16 countries in the percentage of the public that perceives strong/very strong conflict between urban and rural. In France, 45 percent of the public feels this way. In South Korea, the figure is 43 percent. 

The perception of urban-rural conflict differs by political affiliation in the U.S. "People on the left (53%) are more likely than those on the right (38%) to say there are strong or very strong conflicts between people who live in urban areas and people who live in rural areas," Pew reports.

Source: Pew Research Center, Diversity and Division in Advanced Economies

Big Drop in School Enrollment in 2020

The number of Americans aged 3 or older enrolled in school fell from 76 million in 2019 to 73 million in 2020—a decline of 2.9 million. Behind the decline was the coronavirus pandemic, which not only turned learning virtual but also kept many from going to school at all. 

Most of the decline in school enrollment occurred among the youngest students. The number of children enrolled in nursery school or kindergarten fell by 1.5 million between 2019 and 2020, accounting for 54 percent of the overall decline in enrollment. The enrollment rate of 3-to-4-year-olds plunged from 54 to just 40 percent—the first time since 1996 that the enrollment rate of the age group has been below 50 percent. 

Percentage of 3-to-4-year-olds who were enrolled in nursery school/kindergarten

2020: 40.3%

2019: 53.7%

Enrollment in the nation's colleges fell from 18.3 million in 2019 to 17.7 million in 2020. Two-year colleges accounted for most of the decline. Two-year schools lost 588,000 students between 2019 and 2020, the largest drop in two-year college enrollment in the Census Bureau's data series. Four-year college enrollment fell by 172,000—less than the 301,000 decline between 2018 and 2019. Graduate schools bucked the trend, their enrollment growing by 145,000 in 2020. 

School enrollment in 2020 (and percent change since 2019)

Total enrolled: 73,222,000 (-3.8%)

Nursery/kindergarten: 7,242,000 (-17.6%)

Elementary school: 32,046,000 (-1.9%)

High school: 16,259,000 (-0.8%)

College: 17,674,000 (-3.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2020—Detailed Tables

Labor Force Rates of 65+ Projected to Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force. 

On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.

On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...

Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30

	2030	2020	2010	2000	pp change, 2000-30
Aged 65 to 69	39.6%	33.0%	31.5%	24.5%	+15.1
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	18.9	18.0	13.5	+10.3
Aged 75-plus	11.7	8.9	7.4	5.3	+6.4

By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older. 

Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970. 

Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections Overview and Highlights, 2020–30

Most Americans Are Worried about Climate Change

Fully 65 percent of Americans aged 18 or older are worried about climate change, according to a Gallup survey. Forty-three percent are worried "a great deal" and another 22 percent are worried "a fair amount." 

Worries about climate change are not limited to the young or the educated. The majority of every demographic segment is worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. Take a look...

Percent who are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change

Total: 65%

Men: 59%

Women: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 78%

Aged 30 to 49: 67%

Aged 50 to 64: 57%

Aged 65-plus: 60%

No college: 66%

Some college: 61%

College graduate: 65%

Postgraduate: 71%

Only one segment of the population is indifferent to climate change. Just 32 percent of Republicans say they are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. 

Source: Gallup, Are Americans Concerned about Global Warming?

29% of Americans Are Afraid of Dying

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public about its fears, asking a representative sample of the population how afraid it is of a long list of unfortunate events, types of people, insects, animals, natural disasters, and even the paranormal. The latest survey included 95 potentially fearful things. Here are some of the more interesting fear comparisons...

• Of the 95 different fears measured, the American public is least afraid of animals. Only 5 percent of the public reports being afraid/very afraid of animals.
• 43% of the public is afraid/very afraid of white supremacists. This fear ranks 23rd among the 95 fears measured in the 2020-21 survey. Many more people are afraid of white supremacists than Black Lives Matter (15%).
• 20% of people are afraid/very afraid of murder hornets. 
• A substantial 12% of the public is afraid/very afraid of needles. Could this explain vaccine hesitancy?
• Fear of strangers grips more than one in ten Americans (11%). Perhaps these fearful people are also the ones who are afraid/very afraid of immigrants (6%).
• 9% are afraid/very afraid of whites no longer being the majority in the U.S.
• Nearly one-third of the public (31%) is afraid/very afraid of heights. About half as many (16%) are afraid of small, enclosed spaces.
• Half of Americans (49%) are afraid/very afraid of climate change.  
• Only 29% of Americans are afraid/very afraid of dying. The fear of dying ranks 53rd on the list—just  above the fear of public speaking. 

Source: Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

The 10 Things Americans Fear the Most

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public, probing our greatest fears. Students at the university analyze the findings and determine which events Americans are most afraid of. Here are the latest results—the 10 greatest fears of Americans, according to the 2020-2021 survey (the University fielded the survey at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021)...

Percent who say they are afraid/very afraid, 2020-21

1. Corrupt government officials: 79.6%

2. People I love dying: 58.5% 

3: A loved one contracting coronavirus: 58.0% 

4. People I love becoming seriously ill: 57.3% 

5. Widespread civil unrest: 56.5% 

6. A pandemic or a major epidemic: 55.8% 

7. Economic/financial collapse: 54.8% 

8. Cyber-terrorism: 51.0%

9. Pollution of oceans, rivers and lakes: 50.8%

10. Biological warfare: 49.3%

You might recall that a lot was happening in 2020. So, how did the fears of Americans change since the previous survey in 2019? Obviously, coronavirus was not one of the top 10 fears prior to the most recent survey, since no one had even heard of it. In 2019, fear of a pandemic ranked only 31st on the list of greatest fears, according to Chapman political science and philosophy student Roxy Amirazizi. In the latest survey, fear of a pandemic had climbed all the way up to 6th place. 

Fear of economic collapse and biological warfare made the top-10 list for the first time in 2020-21. 

Fear of a loved one dying rose from fifth to second place.

Fear of widespread civil unrest climbed from the 20th greatest fear in 2019 to number 5 in 2020-21. This is due, says Amirazizi, "to the general increase in protests and demonstrations throughout the past year, as well as the attacks on the Capitol that occurred during the time of the survey." Those who identify themselves as extremely liberal are much more likely to fear civil unrest (75.8 percent) than those who identify themselves as extremely conservative (43.2 percent).

Source: Chapman University, Roxy Amirazizi, Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

What Parents Think about School Efforts to Limit Covid

The battle lines are drawn as parents face off across the country over Covid mitigation measures. Schools are in the crosshairs.

Almost half of parents with children aged 12 to 17 (48 percent) say their child has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor fielded September 13-22. Almost as many parents (40 percent) say they will wait and see on the vaccine, or they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

Among parents of 5-to-11-year-olds, only 34 percent say they will get their child vaccinated as soon as the vaccine is authorized for the age group. Almost as many—32 percent—say they will wait and see. Another 31 percent say they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

In the midst of these divisions, the nation's schools are struggling to create a safe physical environment for the education of the nation's 53 million school-aged children. It is a daunting task. Not only do parents disagree about the need for vaccinations but also about the need for masks...

Parents with children in K-12 schools

58% think all students and staff should be required to wear masks

35% think no one should be required to wear masks

4% think only unvaccinated students and staff should be required to wear masks

Among vaccinated parents, 73 percent think schools should require all students and staff to wear masks. Among unvaccinated parents, 63 percent think no one should be required to wear masks. What are the schools doing about masks? The 69 percent majority of parents say their child's school requires all students and staff to wear masks. Another 28 percent of parents say their child's school does not have any mask requirements. 

Despite the deep divisions among parents, fully 66 percent think their child's school is doing "about the right amount" to limit the spread of Covid. Twenty-one percent say their child's school is not doing enough, and 11 percent say their child's school is doing too much. 

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Vaccination Trends among Children and Covid-19 in Schools

The Married Have Dramatically Lower Death Rates

Want to lower your chances of dying? Get married. That's one interpretation of a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of death rates by marital status. Take a look...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population aged 25 or older by marital status, 2019

   747.0 deaths among the married

1,324.0 deaths among the divorced

1,423.2 deaths among those who have never married

1,627.0 deaths among the widowed

People who have never married as well as the divorced and widowed are just about twice as likely to die in a given year than people who are married. Don't forget, these are age-adjusted figures, a calculation which controls for the age distribution of each population—such as the older average age of widows and the younger average age of the never married.  

Not only is the overall death rate much lower for the married, but the death rate is lower for all 10 leading causes of death. Among the 10 leading causes of death, the biggest difference in death rates between the married and the unmarried is for unintentional injuries, a category that includes drug overdoses. The NCHS reports that the death rate for unintentional injuries is about three times higher for the unmarried than for the married. Cancer has the smallest disparity in death rates between the married and the unmarried, with cancer death rates for the unmarried 29 to 39 percent higher than for the married. 

Not only are death rates lower for the married, but the gap has been growing. Between 2010 and 2019, the death rate for married people fell 11 percent, NCHS reports. The rate fell only 3 percent for the divorced and the never married during those years. For the widowed, the death rate increased 4 percent between 2010 and 2019. 

What accounts for the dramatically lower death rate of married people? "Health research has persistently demonstrated lower mortality for married adults compared with unmarried adults," states the NCHS. "The mortality advantage for married adults has been attributed to either selectivity in entering marriage (that is, healthier people are more likely to marry) or health-protective effects of marriage, or a combination of the two."

Keep this in mind the next time your spouse nags you about taking your pills or calling a doctor.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Death Rates by Marital Status for Leading Causes of Death: United States, 2010–2019

Exciting Life or a Calm Life?

Would you rather live an exciting life or a calm life? That's the question Gallup asked representative samples of the public in 116 countries in partnership with the Wellbeing for Planet Earth Foundation. You might be happy to know that the overwhelming majority of the public in almost all of the surveyed countries would rather live a calm life. 

Overall, 72 percent of respondents in the surveyed countries prefer calm to excitement. Only 16 percent opted for excitement and another 10 percent said they wanted both. In the U.S. and Canada, the figures were 75 percent for calm, 22 percent for excitement, and 3 percent for both. 

Georgia is the only country in which the majority of the public says it would choose excitement over calm. In Vietnam, equal numbers opted for excitement and calm. 

The pandemic may have something to do with the overwhelming preference for calm across the world. The pandemic's "extraordinary circumstances may have made living a calm life a more appealing prospect for many people than it would be otherwise," Gallup concludes, "especially given the ambiguous or complicated good represented by excitement." 

Source: Gallup, The World Prefers a Calm Life to an Exciting Life

Richest 20% of Households Control 52% of Household Income

One way to examine incomes in the United States is to divide up the nation's 130 million households into five groups (or quintiles) of equal size based on their annual household income. The Census Bureau does this each year using data from the Current Population Survey. The Census Bureau also tracks the lower income limit of the top 5 percent of households. Here are the results for 2020...

Income bracket of each quintile of households, 2020

Bottom quintile:   $27,026 or less

Second quintile:  $27,027 to $52,179

Third quintile:      $52,180 to $85,076

Fourth quintile:    $85,077 to $141,110

Highest quintile:  $141,111 or more

Top 5 percent:     $273,739 or more

Over the decades, the share of aggregate household income accruing to each of the lower four quintiles has fallen, while the share accruing to the highest quintile has grown. Take a look...

Share of aggregate household income accruing to each quintile in 2020 (and 2000)

Bottom quintile:     3.0% (3.6%)

Second quintile:    8.1% (8.9%)

Third quintile:      14.0% (14.8%)

Fourth quintile:    22.6% (23.0%)

Highest quintile:  52.2% (49.8%)

The richest one-fifth of households controlled 52 percent of all household income in the United States in 2020. Fifty years ago in 1970, the richest one-fifth of households controlled a smaller 43 percent of total household income. The highest quintile surpassed the 50 percent threshold for the first time in 2001 and has consistently controlled the majority since 2008.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Income Tables: Income Inequality

The Unvaccinated Just Don't Get It

How does the American public react to the changing recommendations of public health officials as they attempt to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic? It depends. Most of the vaccinated understand that public health recommendations change as the science evolves. Most of the unvaccinated do not, reacting with paranoia and suspicion to changes in recommendations, according to the results of a Pew Research Center survey. Here is the percentage of Americans who agree with each statement by vaccination status...

The changing recommendations make sense because scientific knowledge is always being updated

Vaccinated: 72%

Unvaccinated: 32%

The changing recommendations made me wonder if public health officials were holding back important information

Vaccinated: 47%

Unvaccinated: 78%

The Kaiser Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: September 2021 confirms the failure of the unvaccinated to understand vaccines and the scientific process. When asked which statement comes closer to their view about the news that some people might need vaccine boosters, 78 percent of the vaccinated agree that the need for boosters "shows that scientists are continuing to find ways to make vaccines more effective."  Among the unvaccinated, fully 71 percent think the need for boosters "shows that the vaccines are not working as well as promised."

Source: Pew Research Center, Unvaccinated Americans Are at Higher Risk from Covid-19 but Express Less Concern than Vaccinated Adults

Characteristics and Spending of Retirees in 2020

One-fifth of households in the United States are headed by retirees, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The 28 million households headed by retirees are more numerous than most other occupational groups, behind only households headed by managers and professionals (35 million). Households headed by retirees outnumber those headed by technical, sales, and clerical workers (19 million), service workers (16 million), the self-employed (9 million), operators, fabricators, and laborers (6 million), and construction workers and mechanics (4 million).

Characteristics of households headed by retirees, 2020

Average age of householder: 73.9 years

Average household size: 1.7 people

Average number of vehicles: 1.7

Percent who own their home: 80%

Percent with a mortgage: 23%

Percent with at least some college: 61%

Households headed by retirees spent an average of $46,111 in 2020. They spend more than their income ($42,397) as they draw down savings. Retiree households spend less, on average, than households headed by workers regardless of occupation... 

Average annual spending of households by occupation of householder, 2020

$82,320: self-employed

$80,855: managers and professionals

$59,168: technical, sales and clerical workers

$57,401: construction workers and mechanics

$53,604: service workers

$52,065: operators, fabricators, and laborers

$46,111: retirees

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey

The Cost of Health Insurance in 2020

The 54 percent majority of Americans had employment-based health insurance in 2020, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Employer-provided health insurance is costly for both employers and employees—and increasingly so, according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Here is how much employers and employees paid for health insurance in 2020 and how much those costs have grown since 2020, after adjusting for inflation...

Annual cost of health insurance for employers, 2020 (and % change 2010-20 in 2020$)

Single premium: $7,149 (22%)

Employee plus one: $14,191 (24%)

Family premium: $20,758 (26%)

Annual employee contribution for insurance, 2020 (and % change 2010-20 in 2020$)

Single coverage: $1,532 (27%)

Employee plus one: $4,035 (36%)

Family coverage: $5,978 (35%)

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Statistical Brief 536: Trends in Health Insurance at Private Employers, 2008–2020

Growing Gap in Death Rates between Urban and Rural

More bad news for rural America. The death rate in rural areas is higher than the rate in urban areas and the gap is growing, according to a National Center for Health Statistics report. The NCHS examined trends in age-adjusted death rates from 1999 to 2019...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 people, 2019 (and 1999) 

Rural areas: 834.0 (923.8)

Urban areas: 693.4 (865.1)

While the death rate fell in both rural and urban areas between 1999 and 2019, the decline was much greater in urban areas. Between 1999 and 2010, both rural and urban areas saw their death rate fall. Since 2010, however, the death rate hasn't budged in rural areas while continuing to fall in urban areas. Consequently, the gap between rural and urban death rates has nearly tripled. The rural rate was just 7 percent greater than the urban rate in 1999. By 2019, it was 20 percent higher. 

What accounts for the widening gulf in death rates between rural and urban areas? The NCHS examined death rates by cause and found rates in rural areas exceeding rates in urban areas for all 10 leading causes of death. The biggest differences were for heart disease, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory disease.

"Those living in rural areas often face greater public health challenges as they have more limited access to health care, are less likely to be insured, and are more likely to live in poverty," the NCHS explains.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Death Rates in Urban and Rural Areas: United States, 1999–2019

Young Republicans Least Likely to be Vaccinated

The 73 percent majority of Americans have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded August 23-29. Democrats (86 percent) are more likely than Republicans (60 percent) to be vaccinated. Among adults by age, people 65-plus are most likely to have gotten the vaccine (86 percent) and 18-to-29-year-olds least likely (66 percent). 

According to Pew's analysis of the numbers by age and political party affiliation, young Republicans (aged 18 to 29) are least likely to be vaccinated. Only 45 percent have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine...

Percent with at least one dose of a Covid vaccine by age and political party affiliation

	Democrat	Republican
Total 18-plus	86%	60%
Aged 18 to 29	81	45
Aged 30 to 49	82	53
Aged 50 to 64	89	56
Aged 65-plus	94	80

The unvaccinated are hurting the country, according to the 60 percent majority of Americans. But the unvaccinated disagree. When Pew asked survey respondents how well this statement describes how they feel—"people who choose not to get a Covid-19 vaccine are hurting the country"—77 percent of the vaccinated said it describes how they feel. Among the unvaccinated, 87 percent said the statement does not describe how they feel.

Source: Pew Research Center, 10 Facts about Americans and Coronavirus Vaccines

Stressful Life Events Are More Common among Children in Rural/Nonmetro Areas

A substantial percentage of the nation's school children have experienced stressful life events, according to an analysis by the National Center for Health Statistics. Using data from the 2019 National Health Interview Survey, the NCHS estimated the percentage of children aged 5 to 17 who had ever experienced one or more of the following stressful life events, as reported by an adult (usually a parent) who responded to the following questions...

• Has the child ever been the victim of violence or witnessed violence in his/her neighborhood?
• Has the child ever lived with a parent or guardian who served time in jail or prison?
• Did the child ever live with anyone who was mentally ill or severely depressed?
• Did the child ever live with anyone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs?

The findings are not what you might expect. On every measure, children who live in rural areas and small towns outside of metropolitan areas are more likely than those in small/medium metros, suburbs of large metros, or cities of large metros to have experienced stressful events.

Overall, 6.8 percent of children aged 5 to 17 had ever been exposed to violence in their neighborhood. Among children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas, 8.2 percent had been exposed to violence in their neighborhood versus 7.8 percent of children in small/medium metros, 6.3 percent of those in the cities of large metros, and 5.2 percent of those in the suburbs of large metros. 

Among school-aged children, 6.5 percent had ever lived with a parent/guardian who had served time in jail or prison. Again, the children most likely to have experienced this stress are those in rural/nonmetropolitan areas (9.4 percent), followed by children in small/medium metropolitan areas (8.0 percent), cities of large metro areas (5.1 percent), and suburbs of large metros (4.5 percent). 

A substantial 9.2 percent of children have ever lived with someone who was mentally ill or severely depressed. The figure ranges from a high of 12.0 percent for children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas to a low of 6.8 percent among children in the cities of large metropolitan areas. 

Fully 9.7 percent of children have ever lived with someone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs. The figure ranges from a high of 13.7 percent among children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas to a low of 7.3 percent among children living in cities of large metropolitan areas.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Disparities in Stressful Life Events among Children Aged 5–17 Years: United States, 2019

Median Earnings by Educational Attainment, 2020

According to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, men who worked full-time, year-round in 2020 earned a median of $63,678—half earned more and half earned less. Here are the medians for men by educational attainment...

Median earnings of men who work full-time by educational attainment, 2020

  $36,423: less than 9th grade

  $37,413: 9th to 12th grade, no diploma

  $49,661: high school graduate only

  $56,267: some college, no degree

  $61,100: associate's degree

  $81,339: bachelor's degree

$101,130: master's degree

$131,268: doctoral degree

$150,509: professional degree

 

Among all women who work full-time, year-round, median earnings were $51,869 in 2020. Median earnings ranged from a low of $26,591 for women with less than a 9th grade education to a high of $110,717 for women with a professional degree.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: People

Median Household Income in 2020: $67,521

One of the most closely watched economic statistics was released yesterday by the Census Bureau. According to the 2021 Current Population Survey (CPS) fielded in March 2021 (which asks about income in the previous year), median household income in 2020 was $67,521. This is 2.9 percent below the record high median of $69,560 in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. Here is the trend in median household income over the years...

Median household income for selected years (in 2020 dollars)

2020: $67,521

2019: $69,560 (record high)

2018: $65,127

2012: $57,623 (post Great Recession low)

2010: $58,627

2000: $63,292

1999: $63,423 (previous record high)

But there's a problem with both the 2020 and 2021 medians. Remember the low response rate to the 2020 Current Population Survey, fielded in March 2020, as everything shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic? The response rate was just 73 percent—a good 10 percentage points lower than normal. Even worse, higher-income households were more likely than lower-income households to respond to the survey. No wonder median household income in 2019 leaped up by 6.8 percent—a bigger one-year increase than ever before in CPS history dating back to 1967. The Census Bureau published a working paper about the problem (Coronavirus Infects Surveys, Too: Nonresponse Bias during the Pandemic in the CPS ASEC). In the paper, bureau analysts Jonathan Rothbaum and Adam Bee adjusted the 2019 median for nonresponse bias. After the adjustment, they estimated median household income in 2019 to be a smaller $66,790—but still the highest ever recorded by the CPS.

What about the median income number released yesterday? Unfortunately, the March 2021 CPS has the same problems, according to an analysis by Rothbaum and Charles Hokayem (How Did the Pandemic Affect Survey Response: Using Administrative Data to Evaluate Nonresponse in the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement). While the survey response rate rose to 76 percent, it was still well below normal. Not only that, but "nonresponse bias in 2021 looks more like it did in 2020 than in prepandemic years," Rothbaum and Hokayem report. Consequently, they estimate the 2021 median to be about 2 percent lower than the $67,521 shown above. The good news is that even after the adjustment median household income in 2021 is about the same as the adjusted 2019 median—in other words, surprisingly close to a record high.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2020

How Far Do You Live from Your Mother?

If you're like most Americans with living mothers, your mom lives only a few miles away. Yes, even in these modern times.

"Very close residential proximity to one's mother beyond coresidence is common across the life course even in the geographically large United States," reports a study of proximity to mother in the journal Demographic Research.

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the study's researchers looked at how far children born between 1951 and 1968 lived from their mothers over a 47-year time period. Here are the results for children whose mother was alive at each given age...

Median distance adult children live from mother at each given age

Age 25 to 34: 6.3 miles

Age 35 to 44: 11.1 miles

Age 45 to 54: 12.4 miles

Age 55 to 64: 10.1 miles

"Overall, a large share of children lived very close to their mother through midlife," concludes the study.

Source: Demographic Research, Proximity to Mother over the Life Course in the United States: Overall Patterns and Racial Differences

Wild Swings in Spending in 2020

The average household spent $61,334 in 2020. This was 3.9 percent less than the $63,792 record high spending by the average household in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The decline in spending during the pandemic comes as no surprise, of course. The wild swings in spending on so many categories of products and services are also not surprising—but they still are eye popping. Take a look...

% change in average household spending on selected categories, 2019–2020 (in 2020 dollars)

-67%: public transportation (airline fares, bus, subway, etc.)

-52%: fees and admissions to entertainment events

-33%: food away from home (restaurants)

-26%: gasoline

-25%: apparel

-19%: personal care products and services

-18%: alcoholic beverages

-13%: education

  +5%: food at home (groceries)

+13%: cash contributions (church, charitable, political)

+22%: reading material (newspapers, magazines, books)

The increase in spending on reading material was the largest among the 14 major components of spending tracked by the Consumer Expenditure Survey, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Every age group spent more on reading material in 2020 than in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The biggest spenders on reading material continue to be the oldest Americans. Householders aged 75 or older spent $196 on newspapers, magazines, and books (digital as well as hardcopy) in 2020, up from $161 in 2019. Householders under age 25 spend the least on reading material—just $51 in 2020. But this was 10 percent more than they spent in 2019.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey

How Many Americans Are "Low Tech"?

How many Americans just aren't tech savvy? In a major new survey of Americans and technology, Pew Research Center has come up with an estimate: 30 percent.

To measure the size of the "low-tech" public, Pew asked two separate questions: 

Question 1. "Overall, how confident, if at all, do you feel using computers, smartphones, or other electronic devices to do the things you need to do online?" and

Question 2. "Which of the following best describes you, even if neither is exactly right? When I get a new computer, smartphone, or other electronic device, I usually...  

—Need someone else to set it up or show me how to use it, or

—Am able to set it up and learn how to use it on my own"

Pew classified those who responded "only a little/not at all" to Question 1 AND those who responded that they usually need help to set up a new electronic device to Question 2 as having "lower tech readiness." Those who said they were somewhat/very confident in using digital devices AND they usually are able to set up and learn how to use a new device on their own as having "higher tech readiness." 

So who are the "lower tech" Americans? Older adults, of course...

Percent of adults who are "lower tech"

Total 18-plus: 30%

Aged 18 to 29: 16%

Aged 30 to 49: 17%

Aged 50 to 64: 34%

Aged 65 to 74: 54%

Aged 75-plus: 68%

Source: Pew Research Center, The Internet and the Pandemic

Health Problems Mount Rapidly for the Less Educated

For 39 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has tracked the labor force experience of a cohort of Baby Boomers as they aged from their teens and twenties into their fifties and sixties. The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth was first fielded in 1979, when a nationally representative sample of young adults aged 14 to 22 answered a battery of questions. This cohort has been surveyed repeatedly for decades, the latest being in 2018–19, when these late Boomers (born from 1957 to 1964) were aged 53 to 62. 

One of the survey questions has asked respondents whether their health limits the kind or amount of work they can do. Not surprisingly, a growing share of respondents reported health limitations as they aged. Only 3.5 percent said their health was a limiting factor at age 24. The figure grew slightly to 4.9 percent at age 34, then more than doubled to 10.3 percent at age 44. By age 54, a substantial 19.9 percent of the cohort reported limitations in their work due to health issues. 

No characteristic plays a bigger role in determining the health status of aging Boomers than educational attainment...

Percent at specified age who said their health limits their work, by educational attainment

	at 54	at 44	at 34	at 24
Total cohort	19.9%	10.3%	4.9%	3.5%
Bachelor's degree+	8.5	4.7	3.6	3.1
Some college/associate's degree	19.7	10.3	5.9	3.2
High school graduate only	23.9	12.2	5.1	3.8
No high school diploma	46.9	23.0	5.8	5.1

By age 54, nearly half (46.9 percent) of those without a high school diploma were limited in their work because of health issues. Among those with a bachelor's degree or more education, only 8.5 percent reported such limitations. The college graduates at age 54 were healthier than every other educational attainment group had been at age 44. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, Marital Status, and Health: Results from a National Longitudinal Survey Summary

Only 9.3% of Small Businesses Have Vaccine Mandate

Covid-19 vaccine mandates are becoming more common among the nation's major employers but are still relatively rare among small businesses, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey. Nationally, only 9.3 percent of small businesses say they require employees to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination before physically coming to work, according to the survey fielded August 23-29. 

Small businesses in the health care industry are most likely to require proof of vaccination, but even in health care just 15. 8 percent are mandating vaccination.

By state, small businesses in the District of Columbia are most likely to require proof of vaccination, at 26.3 percent. In Rhode Island the figure is 20.7 percent and in California 17.2 percent.

Among major metropolitan areas, San Francisco leads the pack with more than one-quarter of small businesses requiring employees to show proof of vaccination...

Percent of small businesses requiring employees to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination before physically coming to work, selected metropolitan areas, August 23-29

San Francisco: 25.5%

San Jose: 22.3%

San Diego: 17.6%

Seattle: 17.6%

Sacramento: 16.8%

New York: 15.3%

Los Angeles: 14.8%

Riverside: 13.1%

Boston: 12.7%

Miami: 11.5%

Portland: 11.0%

Denver: 10.1%

Tampa: 9.4%

Philadelphia: 9.1%

Houston: 7.9%

Chicago: 7.0%

Minneapolis: 6.3%

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey, August 23-29

One in Six Older Americans Is Childless

Who will care for childless adults as they age and require more help? That is one of the questions asked by the Census Bureau in its first examination of the aging childless population. The answers are important because the older childless population is growing as the baby-boom generation ages.

"In the United States, much of the care for older generations falls to their children," the Census Bureau explains. But millions of Americans aged 55 or older are childless. Here are the numbers...

Number (and percent) of childless Americans aged 55 or older (numbers in thousands)

Total 55-plus: 15,190 (16.5%)

Aged 55 to 64: 8,212 (19.6%)

Aged 65 to 74: 4,761 (15.9%)

Aged 75-plus: 2,214 (10.9%)

Note: The childless are those who have zero biological children.

The data for the report come from the 2018 Survey of Income and Program Participation. In 2018, the baby-boom generation was aged 54 to 72. Among younger boomers, aged 55 to 64, fully one in five is childless. 

A substantial 40 percent of childless adults aged 55 or older live alone, according to the analysis. Among adults aged 55-plus who are parents, a smaller 21 percent live alone. "Childless adults appear to have fewer immediate sources of social support within their households," notes the report. "They are more likely than parents to be living alone and less likely to be living with a spouse."

But childless older adults also have some advantages. They are more educated than their counterparts who had children. As a consequence, their net worth is also higher than average. The median personal net worth of childless adults aged 55 or older was $153,900 in 2018. For all adults aged 55-plus, median personal net worth was a smaller $133,500 and for older parents just $130,400. The higher net worth of the childless "may put them at a greater advantage when it comes to obtaining paid care," states the report. 

Source: Census Bureau, Childless Older Americans: 2018

America's Favorite Fruits

The average American eats 58 pounds of fresh fruit per year, according to the the USDA's Economic Research Service. The amount of fresh fruit consumed by the public is significantly higher than it used to be thanks to greater availability and more convenient packaging. In 1970, the average person consumed only 44 pounds of fresh fruit per year. The figure topped 50 pounds for the first time in 1986.

Bananas are the most popular fresh fruit, with the average person eating 13 pounds of bananas in 2019 (the latest data available). Here are the pounds of fresh fruit consumed per year by type of fruit (only fruits with per capita consumption of 1.0 pounds or more are shown)...

Pounds of fresh fruit consumed per capita, 2019 (edible weight)

1. Bananas: 13.4

2. Apples: 9.8 

3. Watermelon: 4.7

4. Grapes: 4.5

5. Oranges: 3.6

6. Avocados: 3.0

7. Strawberries: 2.8

8. Tangerines: 1.9

9. Pears: 1.8

10. Blueberries: 1.7

11. Limes: 1.6

12. Pineapple: 1.6

13. Mangoes: 1.5

14. Cantaloupe: 1.3

15. Lemons: 1.3

Surprisingly, peaches are not on the list of the most popular fresh fruits. The average person consumed only 0.9 pounds of fresh peaches in 2019, down from a peak of 3.2 pounds in 1980. 

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System

69% of Small Businesses in Accommodation and Food Service Industries Are Having Trouble Hiring Workers

More than one-third of the nation's small businesses reported difficulty hiring paid employees in the past seven days, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey, fielded August 16-22. This iteration of the survey is the first time the Census Bureau has asked about hiring problems. 

Nationally, 35 percent of small businesses say they had trouble hiring employees in the past seven days. The figure is as high as 69 percent for businesses in accommodation and food services. This explains why service was so slow the last time you had dinner in a restaurant. Small businesses in manufacturing and health care also reported above-average difficulties in hiring. 

Forty-three percent of small businesses reported domestic supplier delays in the past seven days. The figure peaks at 68 percent among small businesses in manufacturing followed by retail trade (65 percent), construction (63 percent), and accommodation and food service (61 percent).

Percent of small businesses with problem in past week

42.6% had domestic supplier delays

34.7% had difficulty hiring paid employees

24.5% had difficulties in delivery/shipping to customers

17.5% had foreign supplier delays

13.9% had production delays

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey, August 16-22

Americans Want More Space

The pandemic has given us a bad case of cabin fever. With many feeling like the walls were closing in because of lockdowns and social distancing, a growing share of Americans say their ideal living situation is bigger houses and more yard, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Here is Pew's question...

"Would you prefer to live in a community where the houses are..

—larger and farther apart, but schools, stores, and restaurants are several miles away, or

—smaller and closer to each other, but schools, stores, and restaurants are within walking distance?"

When Pew asked this question in July 2021, fully 60 percent of the public chose the "larger and farther apart" option, up from 53 percent in 2019. Only 39 percent chose the "smaller and closer" option, down from 47 percent in 2019. Every demographic segment was more likely to choose the "larger and farther apart" option in 2021 than it was in 2019. 

Percent who would prefer to live in a community where houses are larger and farther apart, but schools, stores, and restaurants are several miles away, 2021 (and 2019)

Aged 18 to 29: 55% (43%)

Aged 30 to 49: 63% (56%)

Aged 50 to 64: 66% (59%)

Aged 65-plus: 55% (47%)

The demographic segments most likely to prefer the "larger and farther apart" option are conservative Republicans (77 percent) and rural residents (74 percent). The segments most likely to prefer the "smaller and closer" option are Asians (58 percent) and liberal Democrats (57 percent). 

Source: Pew Research Center, More Americans Now Say They Prefer a Community with Big Houses, even if Local Amenities Are Farther Away

Vaccination Status of Americans, August 4-16

As of mid-August, the great majority of Americans aged 18 or older were fully vaccinated against Covid, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Here are the latest results...

Vaccination status of adults 18-plus and children 12-17, August 4-16 (numbers in thousands)

	number	percent
Total 18-plus reporting	246,988	100.0%
Have received a vaccine	202,574	82.0
Received all required doses	193,503	78.3
Will receive all required doses	7,781	3.2
Will not receive all required doses	1,290	0.5
Have not received a vaccine	43,427	17.6
Will definitely get a vaccine	3,740	1.5
Will probably get a vaccine	4,416	1.8
Unsure about getting vaccine	8,514	3.4
Will probably not get a vaccine	7,323	3.0
Will definitely not get a vaccine	18,669	7.6
Adults in households with children 12-17	45,522	100.0%
Children have received a vaccine	26,128	57.4
Children have not received a vaccine	19,394	42.6
Will definitely get a vaccine	3,145	6.9
Will probably get a vaccine	2,185	4.8
Unsure about getting vaccine	3,341	7.3
Will probably not get a vaccine	2,679	5.9
Will definitely not get a vaccine	5,300	11.6
Do not know vaccine plans of children	2,443	5.4

The 18.7 million adults who say they will definitely not get vaccinated against Covid is a number that hasn't changed significantly since March. The question about children's vaccination plans has been asked only once before, and more than 5 million adults with children aged 12 to 17 said definitely not in both iterations. The naysayers appear to have dug in their heels. Time for mandates.

Source: Census Bureau, Week 35 Household Pulse Survey: August 4—August 16

Screen Time During the Pandemic

During the pandemic, the nation's teenagers spent most of their leisure time in front of a screen, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. Before anyone starts tsk-tsking about the screen addiction of the younger generations, it is important to note that the nation’s oldest adults also spent most of their leisure time in front of a screen. 

 

On an average day during the months of May through December 2020, teenagers aged 15 to 19 enjoyed 6.40 hours of leisure time. The teens devoted 2.54 of those hours to watching television and another 1.88 hours to playing games and computer use for leisure—a total of 4.42 hours of screen time, or 69 percent of their leisure time on an average day in 2020. (Note: the category "playing games" includes board games as well as computer games.) The 69 percent share of leisure time teens devoted to screens was up from 61 percent during the same months of 2019. 

But wait. The oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older—spent an even larger 71 percent of their leisure time in front of a screen on an average day. With 8.05 hours a day of leisure on their hands in 2020, the 75-plus age group spent 5.20 hours watching television and another 0.51 hours playing games and computer use for leisure. (Note: While some of the game playing among older Americans is board games, computer games are increasingly popular in the oldest age group.) The 71 percent of leisure time the oldest Americans devoted to screens in 2020 was up from 66 percent during the same months of 2019.  

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 American Time Use Survey

Most Favor Mask, Vaccine Mandates for Schools

The 58 percent majority of the American public somewhat/strongly favors mask mandates for students attending K-12 schools, according to an AP-NORC survey. An almost identical 59 percent support a mask mandate for teachers working in those schools. But there are deep partisan divides on this issue, which is playing out in school districts across the country...

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor mask mandates for students in K-12 schools

Total adults: 58%

Democrats: 83%

Republicans: 31%

Vaccinated: 69%

Not vaccinated: 29%

Support for a Covid vaccine mandate is almost as popular as a mask mandate, with 55 percent of adults somewhat/strongly in favor of requiring students aged 12 or older to be vaccinated to attend school in person. Fifty-nine percent of Americans support a vaccine mandate for teachers. Among Democrats, 77 percent favor a vaccine mandate for students and 81 percent for teachers. Among Republicans, the figures are 34 and 38 percent, respectively.

Source: AP-NORC, Support for Mask and Vaccine Mandates in Schools

Household Spending is Highest in DC, Lowest in Miami

Among the 22 metropolitan areas for which the Consumer Expenditure Survey collects spending data, average annual household spending is highest in Washington, D.C., and lowest in Miami...

Metropolitan areas with the highest average annual household spending

Washington, DC: $95,441

San Francisco: $87,287

Minneapolis-St Paul: $84,006

Boston: $83,297

New York: $73,806

Metropolitan areas with the lowest average annual household spending

Chicago: $64,804

Atlanta: $64,103

Honolulu: $63,481

Tampa: $59,193

Miami: $57,472

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas Tables, 2018–2019

49% of U.S. Adults Have Tried Marijuana

Nearly half of U.S. adults have ever tried marijuana, according to a Gallup survey. Gallup has been tracking marijuana use for decades. A half century ago in 1971, just 4 percent of adults reported having ever used marijuana. The figure surged to 33 percent by 1985, reached 45 percent in 2017, and climbed to 49 percent in 2021. 

"The increase in the proportion of U.S. adults who have tried marijuana mainly reflects millennials replacing older traditionalists in the U.S. adult population," explains Gallup. 

There are no statistically significant differences in the percentages of Boomers, Gen Xers, or Millennials who have ever tried marijuana. Americans born before 1946, however, are much less likely to have tried it...

Percent who have ever tried marijuana by generation

Millennials: 51%

Gen Xers: 49%

Boomers: 50%

Older: 19%

When asked whether they currently use marijuana, differences by generation emerge. Among Millennials, 20 percent say they currently use marijuana. The figure is 11 percent among Gen Xers, 9 percent among Boomers, and 1 percent among older Americans.

Source: Gallup, Nearly Half of U.S. Adults Have Tried Marijuana

How Many Countries Have You Visited?

The 71 percent majority of Americans aged 18 or older have ever visited a foreign country, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Only 40 percent have visited 3 or more countries, however, and just 11 percent have visited 10 or more...

Percent distribution of American adults by number of countries ever visited

None: 27%

One: 19%

Two: 12%

3-4: 15%

5-9: 14%

10+: 11%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Americans Have Traveled Abroad, although Differences among Demographic Groups Are Large 

Teen Unemployment Rate Is below 10%

Last month the unemployment rate among teenagers aged 16 to 19 was just 9.6 percent. This is a remarkably low rate. You would have to search in the records all the way back to 1953 to find a lower unemployment rate for the age group, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The unemployment rate for 16-to-19-year-olds climbed as high as 32.1 percent in April 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic swept through the nation. With employers now scrambling to fill entry-level positions, the teen unemployment rate in July 2021 was well below its pre-pandemic level. Two years earlier, in July 2019, 12.0 percent of 16-19-year-olds were unemployed. 

Unlike teens, the unemployment rate for adults aged 20 or older remains higher than it was pre-pandemic. In July 2021, 5.2 percent of adults were unemployed compared with 3.3 percent in July 2019. 

Note: The unemployed are people who have been actively looking for a job in the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force (the sum of the employed and the unemployed).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Teenage Unemployment Rate under 10 Percent for the Third Straight Month in July 2021

It's Happening Again

People who identify themselves as some "other race" besides Asian, Black, American Indian, Native Hawaiian, or white are the second-largest racial group in the United States, according to 2020 census results. If you're scratching your head trying to figure out just what this "other race" could be, you're not alone. The fact is, most people of "other race" are Hispanics. They checked the "other" category because they could not find the terms "Hispanic" or Latino" as options on the race question of the 2020 census. The federal government considers Hispanic to be an ethnicity, not a race, and it collects information on Hispanic origin with a separate ethnicity question. 

This has happened before—on the 2010 Census. Even then, the Census Bureau was concerned about Hispanics checking "other race" on the race question, so it tested an alternative that asked for race and Hispanic origin in a single question. The test proved that the combined question worked much better, reducing the "other race" category to the residual it was meant to be. When presented with separate race and Hispanic origin questions, a substantial 7.1 percent of the population in 2010 checked "other race." When presented with the combined question, just 0.2 percent of the population checked "other race." After these test results were released in 2012, Demo Memo predicted: "Expect a combined race and Hispanic origin question on the 2020 census." 

Alas, it was not to be. Although a combined race and Hispanic origin question was planned for the 2020 census, the Trump administration nixed it. So, it's happening again—an enormous "other race" population and lots of confusion.

Race and Hispanic origin of U.S. population

2020 Census	number	% distribution
Total population	331,449,281	100.0%
RACE:
American Indian	9,666,058	2.9%
Asian	24,000,998	7.2%
Black	46,936,733	14.2%
Native Hawaiian	1,586,463	0.5%
White	235,411,507	71.0%
Other race	49,902,536	15.1%
HISPANIC ORIGIN:
Hispanic	62,080,044	18.7%
Non-Hispanic white	191,697,647	57.8%

Note: Numbers by race will not add to the total population because people could identify themselves as more than one race. Hispanics may be of any race.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of 2020 Census results

55% of 12-17 Age Group Has Received a Covid Vaccine

Just 55 percent of the nation's children aged 12 to 17 have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey fielded July 21-August 2. This iteration of the survey is the first time the bureau has asked about the vaccination status of the 12-to-17 age group. With the school year starting in a few weeks, this relatively low vaccination rate is concerning. 

There are 15 million vaccine resistant parents, according to the Census Bureau—or one third of all parents. The bureau defines the vaccine resistant as all parents who say their child will "probably" get the vaccine as well as those who say their child will "probably not/unsure/definitely not" get the vaccine. Here are the reasons for their resistance (more than one reason could be cited)...

Reasons for vaccine resistance among parents of children aged 12-17

62% are concerned about possible side effects

39% plan to wait and see if it is safe

32% don't trust Covid-19 vaccines

26% don't trust the government

22% say children in household are not at high risk

21% do not believe children need a vaccine

12% are unsure if the vaccine will work for children

  9% say their children's doctor has not recommended vaccination

  4% say they do not vaccinate their children

The most recent iteration of the Household Pulse Survey asks adults whether they are fully vaccinated. As of early August, 79 percent of adults aged 18 or older report being fully vaccinated. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 34 Household Pulse Survey: July 21-August 2

It's Not Just You

Most Americans are feeling the frustrations of supply chain problems, according to a Gallup survey. In the past two months, 60 percent of the public reports being unable to buy a product because of shortages. Almost as many—57 percent—have experienced a significant delay in receiving a product they have ordered. 

Overall, 71 percent of the public reports experiencing one of these two problems, and 46 percent report having both problems. 

"From the toilet paper shortage at the beginning of the pandemic to a car shortage today, Americans have experienced firsthand what it means when production constraints or a shortfall of critical manufacturing components means retailers can't keep up with demand," reports Gallup. 

According to results of the Census Bureau's latest Small Business Pulse Survey, fielded in mid-July, 39 percent of all small businesses have experienced domestic supplier delays in the past seven days—a record high. Among small businesses in retail trade, the 60 percent majority has experienced domestic supplier delays in the past seven days.

Source: Gallup, Most U.S. Consumers Have Felt Supply Chain Problems

The Worst States for Health Insurance

Nationally, 14.5 percent of adults aged 18 to 64 did not have health insurance in 2019, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Texas is number one in the percentage of working-age adults without health insurance. Nearly one-third of Texans aged 18 to 64 does not have health insurance—more than double the national rate. In Oklahoma, one in four lacks health insurance. In Georgia and Florida, the figure is one in five. Why are these states doing so poorly? They have refused to expand Medicaid to all low-income adults (up to 138 percent of poverty level), as provided by the Affordable Care Act. 

States with the largest percentage of adults aged 18 to 64 without health insurance

Texas: 30.5%

Oklahoma: 25.6%

Georgia: 22.3%

Florida: 20.6%

Arkansas and North Carolina tie for 5th place on the list of the worst, with 17.8 percent of working-age adults uninsured. 

In states that have refused to expand Medicaid, an average of 20.8 percent of working-age adults do not have health insurance. In states that have expanded Medicaid, a much smaller 10.9 percent of adults aged 18 to 64 lack health insurance. The 17 states that had not expanded Medicaid as of 2019 were: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. 

Note: As of 2021, five additional states have adopted Medicaid expansion: Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Utah. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Geographic Variation in Health Insurance Coverage: United States, 2019 (PDF)

Gun Owners and Non-Owners Disagree about Policies

Should the purchase of guns by the mentally ill be restricted? Fully 87 percent of Americans say yes, with gun owners and those who don't own guns in rare agreement, according to a Pew Research Center survey. When it comes to most other gun policies, however, gun owners and non-owners are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Take a look...

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor allowing people to carry concealed guns in more places

Gun owners: 70%

Not a gun owner: 30%

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor allowing teachers to carry guns in K-12 schools

Gun owners: 63%

Not a gun owner: 33%

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor banning assault-style weapons

Gun owners: 37%

Not a gun owner: 74%

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor banning high-capacity ammunition magazines

Gun owners: 40%

Not a gun owner: 74%

Percent who somewhat/strongly favor creating a federal database to track all gun sales

Gun owners: 46%

Not a gun owner: 77%

Gun owners are a large minority of adults in the United States. According to Pew, 30 percent of adults personally own a gun and another 11 percent say they don't own a gun but someone else in their household does. This large constituency is what makes gun safety laws so elusive.

Source: Pew Research Center, Wide Differences on Most Gun Policies between Gun Owners and Non-Owners, but also Some Agreement  

Height and Weight of 18-Year-Olds

The average 18-year-old female is overweight, according to measurements collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. A body mass index (BMI) of 25.0 or higher is considered overweight. The average 18-year-old female had a BMI of 26.1 in 2015–18, the latest data available. 

The average 18-year-old male had been overweight in two previous iterations of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–10 and 2011–14), but the average male fell into the normal range (BMI of 24.7) in the 2015–18 survey. 

Here are the measurements of the nation's youngest adults...

Females aged 18,

Height: 5' 4"

Weight: 152 pounds

BMI: 26.1

Males aged 18

Height: 5' 9"

Weight: 167 pounds

BMI: 24.7

Among the nation's 19-year-olds, both males and females are overweight. The average 19-year-old female weighs 156.5 pounds (BMI of 26.9), and the average 19-year-old male weighs 176 pounds (BMI of 26.1). 

Among adults aged 20 or older, the average woman weighs 171 pounds (BMI of 29.6) and the average man weighs 198 pounds (BMI of 29.1). A BMI of 30.0 or higher is considered obese.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mean Body Weight, Height, Waist Circumference, and Body Mass Index among Children and Adolescents: United States, 1999–2018 (PDF)

Americans Are Increasingly Pessimistic about Covid

The percentage of Americans who think the coronavirus situation is getting better plummeted between June and July, according to a Gallup survey. In June, fully 89 percent of the public thought the Covid situation was improving. In July, just 40 percent felt that way. The optimists are now outnumbered by the 45 percent who say the situation is getting worse—the first time since January 2021 that the pessimists have outnumbered the optimists, Gallup reports.

Attitude toward Coronavirus Situation, July 2021 (and June 2021)

Getting better: 40% (89%)

Getting worse: 45% (3%)

Staying the same: 14% (8%)

A growing number of Americans are somewhat/very worried about catching Covid, with the vaccinated more likely to be worried (33 percent) than the unvaccinated (20 percent).

Source: Gallup, Americans' Optimism about Covid-19 Dashed as Cases Surge

Does Intelligent Life Exist on Other Planets?

The 65 percent majority of Americans aged 18 or older say "their best guess is that intelligent life does exist on other planets," according to a Pew Research Center survey. But opinions differ by religious affiliation and practice. Only 40 percent of white evangelicals think intelligent life on other planets is likely versus 85 percent of atheists. Here are the percentages by frequency of prayer...

Percent who say their best guess is that intelligent life DOES exist on other planets

54% of those who pray daily

64% of those who pray weekly

72% of those who pray a few times a month

80% of those who pray seldom or never

Source: Pew Research Center, Religious Americans Less Likely to Believe Intelligent Life Exists on Other Planets

National Park System Visits Fell 28% in 2020

Visits to the national park system plunged in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic temporarily closed parks across the country and kept many people from traveling. The 237 million recreational visits in 2020 were 90 million fewer than in 2019, according to the National Park Service—a 28 percent decline. The number of visits in 2020 was the smallest since 1980, a time when there were many fewer parks (325 versus 423 in 2020). Not every park saw a decline in visitors, however. 

Top 10 national parks visited in 2020, number of visits (and percent change in visits 2019–20)

1. Great Smoky Mountains NP: 12.1 million (-4%)

2. Yellowstone NP: 3.8 million (-5%)

3. Zion NP: 3.6 million (-20%)

4. Rocky Mountain NP: 3.3 million (-29%) 

5. Grand Teton NP: 3.3 million (-3%)

6. Grand Canyon NP: 2.9 million (-52%)

7. Cuyahoga Valley NP: 2.8 million (+23%)

8. Acadia NP: 2.7 million (-22%)

9. Olympic NP: 2.5 million (-23%)

10. Joshua Tree NP: 2.4 million (-20%)

Great Smoky Mountains National Park has been the most visited national park since 1944. It maintained its number-one position despite the pandemic. 

Two national parks fell off the top-10 list in 2020: Yosemite fell from 5th to 12th place, and Glacier fell from 10th to 13th place. Two national parks moved onto the top-10 list in 2020: Cuyahoga Valley rose from 13th to 7th place as visits there increased by 23 percent, and Joshua Tree rose from 11th to 10th place despite fewer visitors.

Source: National Park Service, Annual Visitation Highlights

Oh My Aching Back

It's a common refrain and for good reason. Millions of Americans have back pain, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—not just 1 or 2 million but tens of millions. More than 80 million, in fact.

In 2019, The NCHS asked a representative sample of Americans aged 18 or older this question: "Over the past 3 months, how much have you been bothered by back pain? Would you say not at all, a little, a lot, or somewhere in between?" A substantial 39 percent reported having had a little to a lot of back pain. 

Percent with back pain in past 3 months

Aged 18 to 29: 28%

Aged 30 to 44: 35%

Aged 45 to 64: 44%

Aged 65-plus: 46%

And that's not all. Almost as many adults (36.5 percent) reported having pain in their hips, knees, or feet in the past three months, including 50 percent of people aged 65 or older. Thirty-one percent reported having pain in their hands, arms, or shoulders. 

Overall, the 59 percent majority of Americans aged 18 or older reported being in pain in the past three months. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Back, Lower Limb, and Upper Limb Pain among U.S. Adults, 2019