Here's Why Median Household Income Did Not Grow

For a full decade, median household income struggled to return to the pre-Great Recession peak of $62,700 in 2007 (in 2018 dollars). It finally got there in 2017 and stayed there in 2018. Some might question why American households have made no economic progress in more than a decade, but a look at trends in household income by age group reveals that most households have gained ground.

Percent change in median household income by age of householder, 2007 to 2018 (in 2018$)
Total households: 0.8%
Under age 25: 9.7%
Aged 25 to 34: 3.5%
Aged 35 to 44: 4.2%
Aged 45 to 54: 3.4%
Aged 55 to 64: –3.7%
Aged 65 to 74: 16.7%
Aged 75-plus: 20.5%

Note: Percent change calculations between 2007 and 2018 were made after adjusting 2007 median household income to make it comparable to 2018 income as per Census Bureau guidance in: Survey Redesigns Make Comparisons to Years Before 2017 Difficult.

While the overall median did not increase significantly between 2007 and 2018, every age group but one experienced a significant increase, after adjusting for inflation. How could the overall median remain unmoved when almost everyone experienced a gain?

The answer is the changing age structure of the population, thanks to baby boom and baby bust. In 2018, there were many more older householders (with lower incomes) than in 2007 as boomers aged into their sixties and seventies. The share of households headed by people aged 65 or older grew from 21 to 27 percent of the total during those years. Conversely, there were fewer middle-aged householders (in their peak-earning years) in 2018 than in 2007 because the small Generation X was in the 35-to-54 age groups. The share of households headed by 35-to-54-year-olds fell from 40 to just 34 percent during those years. These shifts depressed growth in the overall median and will continue to do so until the large Millennial generation is more of a presence in the peak-earning age groups.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Income Tables: Households

Most Americans Have Been Spoofed

Robocalls are a big problem. Nearly 48 billion robocalls came into the U.S. in 2018, up from 29 billion just two years earlier, according to an AARP study. Many of the calls are scams. In an effort to educate the public about the dangers of answering such calls, AARP surveyed a representative sample of adults to see how they responded when their phone rings.

Caller ID is nearly universal, the survey found. In an ideal world, this should help people avoid phone scams. Fully 97 percent of adults say they can see who is calling on their phone. In fact, they rely on caller ID to determine whether or not to answer the phone. Fully 92 percent say they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to answer a call when they see the name and number of a family member or friend, 86 percent are likely to answer a call when they see the name of a business with which they have a relationship, and 59 percent are likely to answer a call from a local area code.

That's the problem. Scammers are spoofing local area codes to entice people to answer the phone. And it's working. In the past month, fully 74 percent of the public has answered a call from a local area code only to discover it was a spoof—a robocall disguised as a local call.

"Many Americans rely on caller ID to determine who is calling them and, as a result, many are being deceived into answering calls from criminal telemarketers," says the AARP report.

Although most Americans say they have not given robocallers their personal information, the survey results show that many could be enticed to do so. When presented with hypothetical call scenarios, a substantial 39 percent of survey respondents say they would be likely to answer a call if the caller told them their credit card had been compromised, and 29 percent say they would be likely to answer a call if told their Social Security number had been compromised.

Source: AARP, Many Americans Still Vulnerable to Spoofing

How Often Do Workers Get Paid?

It depends. Some get a paycheck every week, while others get paid only once a month. No single pay schedule accounts for the majority of businesses, according to data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Percent distribution of private businesses by length of pay schedule, 2019
Weekly: 33.8%
Biweekly: 42.2%
Semimonthly: 18.6%
Monthly: 5.4%

The construction industry is most likely to pay every week (76 percent of construction businesses pay weekly). The financial activities industry is the one most likely to pay only monthly (8 percent of financial activities businesses pay monthly).

The less workers are paid, the more frequently they receive a paycheck, according to a BLS analysis of pay schedules in 2013. Among workers paid weekly, average hourly earnings were $18.62 in 2013. Among those paid biweekly, average hourly earnings were a higher $24.81. Earnings were highest among those paid semimonthly or monthly, an average of $29.75 and $28.45 per hour, respectively.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Length of Pay Periods in the Current Employment Statistics Survey and How Frequently Do Private Businesses Pay Workers?

Householders Aged 75-Plus Outspend Young Adults

Average household spending peaked in 2006, just before the Great Recession. Spending then fell for years as Americans struggled with lost jobs and homes. It took until 2017 for average household spending to set a new record high. Now spending has plateaued. Average household spending in 2018 ($61,224) was not statistically different from the 2017 figure ($61,525), after adjusting for inflation, and not much higher than the old 2006 record ($60,285).

This stability in the overall median masks changes in average household spending by age of householder. The rule of thumb is this: the older the householder, the greater the increase in average household spending. Take a look...

Average household spending in 2018 (and % change since 2006; in 2018$)
Under age 25: $32,039 (–8.7%)
Aged 25 to 34: $56,457 (–4.7%)
Aged 35 to 44: $71,198 (–0.6%)
Aged 45 to 54: $75,387 (+5.1%)
Aged 55 to 64: $66,212 (+4.7%)
Aged 65-plus: $50,860 (+16.5%)
  Aged 65 to 74: $56,268 (+10.3)
  Aged 75-plus: $43,181 (+19.9%)

Average household spending was lower in 2018 than in 2006 for householders under age 45. The youngest householders saw their average spending decline by a steep 8.7 percent, after adjusting for inflation. Behind the decline is the postponement of marriage, reducing household size and spending.

Average household spending was higher in 2018 than in 2006 for householders aged 45 or older, with the biggest gains experienced by the oldest householders—a nearly 20 percent increase in average household spending for householders aged 75 or older, after adjusting for inflation. Average household spending by the oldest and youngest householders was almost identical in 2006 (in 2018 dollars)—$35,000 spent by householders under age 25 versus $36,000 spent by householders aged 75-plus. Not so in 2018. The oldest householders now outspend the younger by a whopping 35 percent—a difference in average annual spending of more than $11,000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey

44% Increase in Spending on Public Transportation

Why is average household spending on public transportation going through the roof?

While overall household spending did not increase between 2017 and 2018, after adjusting for inflation, spending on public transportation climbed 12 percent and was one of the year's fastest-growing spending categories. That's not just a blip. Since 2010, average household spending on public transportation has climbed 44 percent, after adjusting for inflation—four times faster than the increase in overall household spending—making it one of the fastest-growing spending categories during the time period.

There are three reasons for the ongoing boom in spending on public transportation. One, the back-to-the-city movement has increased spending on mass transit. Two, the aging of the baby-boom generation has boosted travel spending. Three, the average household has more than tripled its spending on "taxi fares."

Percent change in average household spending on public transportation, 2010–2018
231% increase in spending on taxi fares
  73% increase in spending on ship fares
  68% increase in intercity train fares
  34% increase in spending on airline fares
  10% increase in spending on intercity bus fares
    8% increase in spending on intracity mass transit fares

Included in the "taxi fare" category is spending on ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

He/ She/ They

A substantial 18 percent of adults personally know someone who goes by a gender-neutral pronoun, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Young adults are most likely to know someone who prefers a gender-neutral pronoun...

Know someone who goes by a gender-neutral pronoun
Aged 18 to 29: 32%
Aged 30 to 49: 19%
Aged 50 to 64: 14%
Aged 65-plus: 8%

About half of adults say they would be comfortable "using a gender-neutral pronoun to refer to someone if asked to do so," Pew finds. Young adults are most likely to say they would feel comfortable (61 percent). Americans aged 65 or older are least likely to say they would feel comfortable doing so (47 percent).

Source: Pew Research Center, About One-in-Five U.S. Adults Know Someone Who Goes by a Gender-Neutral Pronoun

Average Household Spending Stalls in 2018

After reaching a record high last year, average household spending took a breather. The $61,224 average of 2018 was not statistically different from the 2017 figure. Spending plunged as low as $54,984 in 2013. Average household spending in 2018 was 11 percent higher than the 2013 low—an additional $6,200 of spending per year per household.

Average household spending, 2006 to 2018 (in 2018 dollars)
2018: $61,224 (not significantly different from 2017)
2017: $61,525 (record high)
2015: $59,304
2013: $54,984 (post-Great Recession low)
2010: $55,402
2006: $60,285 (previous record high)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Median Household Income in 2018: $63,179

The good news: median household income is as high as it has ever been, at $63,179 in 2018. The bad news: after adjusting for inflation, median household income in 2018 is no higher than it was in 1999, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

You won't be able to spot this fact in the CPS data tables released by the Census Bureau yesterday. That's because 2018 income data are not comparable to data from earlier years. The Census Bureau redesigned the Current Population Survey's income questions beginning in 2014 and data processing methods beginning in 2018. But in an America Counts story, bureau analysts adjusted the overall household median for these changes to allow for a comparison of the 2018 median with earlier medians. The 2018 median, it turns out, is as high but not significantly higher than the 1999 median, after adjusting for inflation.

Why is 2018's median household income almost identical to the median nearly 20 years ago? One big reason is the aging of the large Baby-Boom generation. In 1999, Boomers were in their peak-earning years, boosting the overall household median to a record high. In 2018, the demographic pattern is reversed. Boomers are retiring and living on reduced incomes. Generation X is in the peak-earning years (45 to 54), but with little impact on the overall median because of its small size. Here is median household income by age of householder in 2018...

Median household income by age of householder, 2018
Total households: $63,179
Under age 25: $43,531
Aged 25 to 34: $65,890
Aged 35 to 44: $80,743
Aged 45 to 54: $84,464
Aged 55 to 64: $68,951
Aged 65-plus: $43,696
  Aged 65 to 74: $52,465
  Aged 75-plus: $34,925

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Tables for Household Income

States with the Highest Death Rates

Your chances of dying are much higher in some states than in others, according to a National Center for Health Statistics' report analyzing the five states with the highest and lowest death rates in 2017.

Highest death rates: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and West Virginia
Lowest death rates: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York

The difference is not trivial. The annual number of deaths per 100,000 age-adjusted population is 926.8 in the five states with the highest death rate (the High Five) compared with 624.0 deaths per 100,000 age-adjusted population in the five states with the lowest rate (the Low Five). So, the death rate in the High Five is an astounding 49 percent higher than the death rate in the Low Five. These differences "persist when stratifying by gender, age, and race and Hispanic origin," according to the NCHS analysis.

The death rate in the High Five exceeds the death rate in the Low Five in every age group. The biggest difference occurs in the 25-to-34 and 35-to-44 age groups, where the death rate in the High Five is more than double the death rate in the Low Five.

The death rate in the High Five exceeds the death rate in the Low Five for both non-Hispanic Blacks (32 percent higher) and non-Hispanic Whites (39 percent higher). Hispanics are the only exception. The Hispanic death rate in the High Five is 27 percent lower than the Hispanic death rate in the Low Five.

The High Five has a higher death rate than the Low Five for each of the top five causes of death. The heart disease death rate is 46 percent higher, cancer 29 percent, chronic lower respiratory disease 100 percent, unintentional injuries 83 percent, and stroke 39 percent.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Patterns between Five States with Highest Death Rates and Five States with Lowest Death Rates: United States, 2017

"I Want to Believe"

Fox Mulder of The X-Files wanted to believe in UFOs, and he has lots of company. Fully 33 percent of Americans aged 18 or older think "some UFOs are alien spacecraft," according to a Gallup survey. Sixteen percent say they personally have seen a UFO.

There are few demographic differences in the belief that aliens are visiting earth. By age, the proportion who believe some UFOs are alien spacecraft ranges from a low of 29 percent among people aged 65 or older to a high of 39 percent among 18-to-29-year-olds. People who live in the Midwest are least likely to believe (27 percent), while those in the West are most likely (41 percent). Twenty percent of adults in the West say they personally have seen a UFO.

Among Americans who are religiously affiliated, 31 to 32 percent think some UFOs are alien spacecraft. Among those with no religion, a larger 40 percent are believers.

Source: Gallup, Americans Skeptical of UFOs, but Say Government Knows More

Median Household Income Rises in July 2019

Median household income climbed 0.7 percent between June and July 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $65,084 July median was $438 greater than the June 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

"Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 2.3 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 16.6 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $55,798.  

Sentier's Household Income Index for July 2019 was 105.4 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the July 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 5.4 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. "Not an impressive performance by any means," says Green. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: July 2019

Snacking in the Evening

Most Americans are late evening snackers, according to the USDA Food Surveys Research Group, which defines late evening as 8 pm to midnight. On an average day, 64 percent of people aged 20 or older "consumed one or more foods or beverages other than plain water in the late evening." So what, you say? The USDA is interested in this behavior because of its "potential negative implications for health."

The prevalence of late evening snacking is greatest among young adults. Fully 68 percent of people aged 20 to 39 consume something more than just plain water between 8 and 11:59 pm on an average day. Among 40-to-59-year-olds, 65 percent snack in the late evening. Among people aged 60 or older, the figure is 59 percent.

Now for the potential negative implications: Late evening snacking is not calorie free. On average, the food and drinks consumed in the late evening add up to 16 percent of the daily calories of snackers. Perhaps consequently, late evening snackers consume more calories on an average day than those who do not snack in the evening—2,243 calories per day for snackers and 1,906 calories for nonsnackers.

The snackers are veritable vacuum cleaners in the kitchen. The foods and beverages being consumed by late night snackers include sweet bakery products (17 percent of late night snackers), candy (10 percent), sandwiches (9 percent), poultry (5 percent), white potatoes (6 percent), fruit (11 percent) cheese and yogurt (5 percent), regular soft drinks (9 percent), diet soft drinks (4 percent), tea (8 percent), milk (6 percent), coffee (4 percent), and alcoholic beverages (14 percent). Among those who report drinking alcohol between 8 and midnight, nearly half of the alcohol they drink all day is consumed during those hours.

Source: USDA, Food Surveys Research Group, Late Evening Food and Beverage Consumption by Adults in the U.S.

21% Take Time Off from Work During Average Week

During an average week, 21 percent of wage and salary workers take time off from their job—either paid or unpaid, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. The reasons for taking leave include vacation, illness, family needs, or personal errands.

Among the 30 million wage and salary workers who take any leave—paid or unpaid—during an average week, this is their main reason for taking time off...

31.0% for vacation
21.9% for own illness or medical care
19.8% to run errands or for personal reasons
  8.0% for illness or medical care of a family member
  6.9% because of a holiday
  3.1% for childcare or eldercare (except illness)
  1.8% because of the weather
  1.4% for birth or adoption of a child
  6.2% for some other reason

Women are more likely than men to take time off during an average week due to the illness or medical care of a family member (10.3 versus 5.5 percent). Among parents of children under age 13, a substantial 14.4 percent take leave during an average week due to the illness or medical care of a family member. Interestingly, these parents are much less likely than average to take time off for their own illness—16.7 percent do so during an average week versus 21.9 percent of all workers.

Overall, 66 percent of wage and salary workers had access to paid leave in 2017–18, up from 60 percent in 2011. Not surprisingly, workers in management are most likely to have access to paid leave (81.5 percent), while those in service (43.2 percent) and construction (35.8 percent) are least likely.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Access To and Use of Leave Summary

Dropping Kids Off at College

The number of college students attending four-year schools has climbed 75 percent over the past four decades, rising from 5.9 million in 1977 to 10.3 million in 2017. But the distance parents drive to drop off their kids at college hasn't changed much over the decades...

Percent of freshmen whose home is 50 or fewer miles from their college
2017: 41.9%
2007: 35.4%
1997: 32.5%
1987: 31.9%
1977: 39.2%

Percent of freshmen whose home is more than 500 miles from their college
2017: 17.6%
2007: 13.4%
1997: 13.9%
1987: 13.8%
1977: 10.7%

Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2017 and The American Freshman: Fifty-Year Trends 1966–2015

Workers Are Cautiously Optimistic about the Job Market

Workers are cautiously optimistic as Labor Day approaches. Nearly one in four says it would be easy "to find a job with another employer with approximately the same income and fringe benefits" as they have now, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. In the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2010, only 12.6 percent felt such confidence...

Percent of workers who say it would be "very easy" to find an equally good job
2018: 24.2% (cautious optimism)
2016: 20.5%
2014: 19.5%
2012: 16.0%
2010: 12.6% (record low)
2008: 22.0%
2006: 31.8% (irrational exuberance)

In 2006, just before the start of the Great Recession, 31.6% of American workers were confident in their ability to find another equally good job. This irrational exuberance quickly disappeared as the stock and housing markets collapsed. By 2010, the 53 percent majority of workers said it would not be easy to find a comparable job. Today, only 35 percent think it would be hard. It has taken more than a decade for workers to regain even modest confidence in the job market.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Households with Zero or Negative Net Worth

Millions of American households have zero or even negative net worth, meaning the amount of money they owe equals or exceeds their assets. Twenty million households—16 percent of all households—are on this bottom rung of the net worth ladder, according to the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation. These are their demographic characteristics...

• By age, the youngest householders are most likely to have zero or negative net worth. Among householders under age 35, a substantial 30 percent have no wealth. At the other extreme, householders aged 75 or older are least likely to have zero wealth (6 percent).
• By race and Hispanic origin, Households headed by Blacks are most likely to have zero or negative net worth (29 percent). Asian households are least likely to have no wealth (8 percent). 
• By education, 27 percent of households without any member who has a high school diploma have zero or negative net worth. Households with at least one member who has a graduate degree are least likely to be without wealth (11 percent).
• By income, 29 percent of households in the lowest income quintile have zero or negative net worth. This compares with just 5 percent of households in the highest income quintile. 
• By homeownership status, 34 percent of renters have zero or negative net worth versus just 5 percent of homeowners.

Source: Census Bureau, Wealth, Asset Ownership, and Debt of Households Detailed Tables: 2015

(Almost) 200 Years of Legal Immigration Numbers

The Department of Homeland Security's Yearbook of Immigration Statistics is chock full of interesting numbers. Table 1 of the Yearbook displays the annual number of legal immigrants to the United States in every year going back almost 200 years—to 1820. These numbers provide context for today's immigration debate...

• Number of legal immigrants admitted to the United States in 1820: 8,385
• First year the annual number of legal immigrants exceeded 100,000: 1842
• First year the annual number of legal immigrants exceeded 1,000,000: 1905
• Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 1,000,000: 23
• Peak number of annual legal immigrants: 1.8 million in 1991
• Number of years annual legal immigrants were at least 1% of total population: 21
• Most recent year annual legal immigrants were at least 1% of population: 1914
• Number of legal immigrants in most recent year (2017): 1.1 million
• Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 2017 level: 8
• Legal immigrants in 2017 as percent of total US population: 0.35%
• Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 0.35% of population: 91

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's 2017 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

33% Participate in the "Sharing Economy"

Only one-third of internet users participate in the "sharing economy," according to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's 2017 Internet Use Survey. The NTIA defines the sharing economy (or P2P) as people buying, selling, or trading goods and services with one other through online platforms.

Not surprisingly, internet users who participate in the sharing economy are younger (median age 42) than internet users who don't participate (median age 52). Also not surprisingly, the higher the income, the greater the participation...

P2P participation of internet users by household income, 2019
33% of total internet users
23% of those with incomes below $25,000
27% of those with incomes of $25,000 to $49,999
32% of those with incomes of $50,000 to $74,999
36% of those with incomes of $75,000 to $99,999
47% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more

Requesting services is the most common form of participation in the sharing economy, with higher-income internet users most likely to do this. Fully 39 percent of internet users with household incomes of $100,000 or more had requested services, for example, versus only 16 percent of those with household incomes below $25,000. Among all internet users, 26 percent had requested services.

Offering services is a much less common P2P activity. Among all internet users, 6 percent had offered services such as ride hailing or lodging. Participation by household income ranges narrowly from 4 percent of those with the lowest incomes to 8 percent of those with the highest incomes.

Selling goods is undertaken by 11 percent of all internet users. Participation ranges from 9 percent among those with the lowest incomes to 14 percent among those with the highest.

Source: NTIA Data: Two-Thirds of U.S. Internet Users Do Not Participate in the Sharing Economy

The News: Fox vs. CNN

Who trusts Fox News? Who trusts CNN? A recent Gallup survey examined how much Americans trust various news sources, finding local news to be the most trusted (74 percent find it trustworthy). CNN News is trusted by 48 percent of Americans and Fox News by 43 percent.

Not surprisingly, trust in news sources varies greatly by political party affiliation. Among Republicans, 69 percent trust Fox News. Among Democrats, only 30 percent trust Fox. The opposite pattern occurs with CNN, which is trusted by 72 percent of Democrats and just 20 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 48 percent trust CNN and 37 percent trust Fox.

Percent who watch CNN News (or Fox News) every day/several times a week
Aged 18 to 29: 21% (20%)
Aged 30 to 49: 23% (21%)
Aged 50 to 64: 22% (33%)
Aged 65-plus: 26% (42%)

Among adults under age 50, CNN and Fox are about equally important as daily/weekly sources of news. Among people aged 50 or older, Fox is a more popular source of news than CNN.

Source: Gallup, In U.S., 40% Trust Internet News Accuracy, Up 15 Points

Thank God It's Friday

TGIF! You know the feeling. You know it because you've lived it over and over again—about 1,400 times by the time you're in your fifties. That's the average number of weeks Americans are employed from the age of 18 until they are 52.

This somewhat unsettling thought comes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a Bureau of Labor Statistics effort that has been tracking people born from 1957 through 1964 for decades. The cohort was first interviewed when they were aged 14 to 22. At the latest interview, conducted in 2016–17, they were aged 51 to 60. These folks had been employed for 78 percent of all the weeks they had lived since the age of 18. That's about 1,400 TGIF moments.

There are differences by demographic characteristic, of course. Men spent 84 percent of all those weeks employed and women 72 percent. Among men by educational attainment, the share of weeks spent at work between the ages of 18 and 52 ranged from a low of 69 percent for those without a high school diploma to a high of 89 percent for college graduates. Women without a high school diploma had worked only 45 percent of the weeks since they were age 18. Women with a bachelor's degree or more education had worked for a much larger 80 percent of the weeks.

The survey's findings show that college-educated men and women have similar work histories, with men having been employed for 1,574 weeks since the age of 18 and women employed for 1,414 weeks. The difference between the two is about the amount of time a working woman might take off to have a couple of kids.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, and Earnings Growth: Results from a National Longitudinal Survey Summary

Who's Afraid of a Natural Disaster?

Do Americans underestimate their risk of being affected by a flood or other natural disaster? Yes, according to results of the American Housing Survey.

Among the nation's householders, only 9 million—or 8 percent—agree that their neighborhood is at high risk of a natural disaster, according to the 2017 survey. With 2.53 people in the average household, that's only 23 million people who are willing to acknowledge that they live in a high-risk area—7 percent of the population.

But a much larger 60 million people—18 percent of the population—live just in the coastal counties of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. These counties are deemed at high risk for hurricanes, according to the Census Bureau. In addition to those 60 million, there are many millions more who live in areas at high risk of wildfires, earthquakes, and tornadoes. Yes, Americans greatly underestimate their risk of a natural disaster. This might explain why, in the aftermath of a natural disaster, so many households lack the appropriate insurance.

In California, which is prone to earthquakes, only 9 percent of households agree that they are at high risk for natural disasters. Texans are a bit more worried, with 11 percent agreeing they are at high risk. In Florida, where hurricanes often strike, 14 percent of households acknowledge the risk. Among metropolitan areas included in the 2017 survey, the percentage of householders who think they are at high risk of a natural disaster ranges from a high of 20 percent in Houston and 17 percent in Miami to a low of 2 percent in Washington, D.C.

People who have recently experienced a natural disaster are more likely to acknowledge risk, while those living in areas where a natural disaster occurred in the distant past are often in denial. Among households in New Orleans, interviewed in the 2015 American Housing Survey, fully 31 percent agreed that their neighborhood was at high risk of a natural disaster. But in San Francisco, only 11 percent of households thought their risk of a natural disaster was high. After all, 1906 was a long time ago.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey

Young Adults Are Much Less Likely to Care for Household Children on an Average Day

The time use of young adults has changed a lot due to the baby bust. A smaller share of people aged 20 to 34 spent time caring for household children on an average day in 2018 than in 2008, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the American Time Use Survey.

The number of births in the United States peaked at 4.3 million in 2007. The following year, in 2008, nearly one-third of women aged 20 to 24 and more than half of those aged 25 to 34 were spending time caring for household children on an average day.

Skip ahead 10 years to 2018. The fertility rate is at an historic low. The annual number of births is 12 percent below the 2007 high. Only 18 percent of women aged 20 to 24 were caring for household children on an average day in 2018, down from 32 percent in 2008. Among women aged 25 to 34, the share who were caring for children had fallen from 54 to 46 percent. Men were not making up the difference either, with declines in the percentage of men who were caring for children in both age groups. In contrast, in the older 35-to-44 age group, there was little change over the decade in the share who participated in child care.

Percent caring for children on an average day by age and sex, 2008 and 2018

	2018	2008
Aged 20 to 24	11.3%	20.1%
Women	18.4	32.0
Men	4.2	8.3
Aged 25 to 34	35.0%	41.3%
Women	45.8	53.5
Men	24.2	29.1
Aged 35 to 44	45.6%	45.9%
Women	55.9	54.1
Men	35.1	37.5

What else are young adults doing while they wait to have kids? They are not more likely to work, nor are they more likely to socialize with friends and family. But they are more likely to be in school. The percentage of people aged 20 to 24 who participated in educational activities on an average day grew from 20 to 25 percent between 2008 and 2018. Young adults also are more likely to use a computer or go online—a larger share were surfing the internet and playing games on an average day in 2018 than in 2008.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey

Few Follow the News "Very Closely"

Most Americans are not news junkies. Among adults aged 18 or older, only about one in three say they follow national or local news "very closely," according to Pew Research Center.

By age, young adults are least interested in the news, with only 15 percent following local or national news closely. Interest in the news rises with age. Among people aged 65 or older, 49 percent follow national news and 42 percent follow local news very closely.

Follow national (local) news "very closely"
Aged 18 to 29: 15% (15%)
Aged 30 to 49: 25% (28%)
Aged 50 to 64: 36% (38%)
Aged 65-plus: 49% (42%)

Source: Pew Research Center, Older Americans, Black Adults and Americans with Less Education More Interested in Local News

Public School Students in 2019

Non-Hispanic Whites will account for 47 percent of the nation's public school students this fall, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The 53 percent majority of students in grades K through 12 will be Hispanic, Black, Asian, or another minority. This is a big shift since 2000, when 61 percent of public school students were non-Hispanic White. The share fell below 50 percent in 2014.

Public school students in grades K–12 by race and Hispanic origin, 2019
47.1% are non-Hispanic White alone
27.8% are Hispanic
15.3% are non-Hispanic Black alone
  5.7% are non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander alone
  3.1% are non-Hispanic two or more races
  1.0% are non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native alone

The non-Hispanic White share of public school students will fall a bit more in the next few years. In 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 45 percent of students, according to NCES projections.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

Will the U.S. Go to War?

"Do you expect the U.S. to fight in another world war in the next 10 years?" The General Social Survey has been asking this question since the mid-1970s. In every year, a substantial share of the population says yes. The latest data, from the 2018 survey, finds Americans split 50/50 on the chances of a world war within 10 years.

Who is most likely to believe a war is imminent? Women, Blacks, and those without a college degree. Fully 57 percent of women versus 43 percent of men think the U.S. will fight in another world war in the next 10 years, according to the 2018 survey. Among Blacks, 65 percent feel that way versus about half of Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites and just 11 percent of Asians. The 55 percent majority of those without a college degree think we will soon fight in a world war versus 40 percent of college graduates.

Historically, this "Fear Meter" was highest in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The percentage of Americans who thought we would engage in a world war within 10 years was just 38 percent in 2000, before the attacks. The next time the question was asked, in 2002, fully 68 percent thought we would soon be in a world war. The Fear Meter was lowest in 1989–90, when only 29 to 32 percent thought the U.S. would fight in a world war within 10 years. What was going on at the time? The fall of the Berlin Wall, giving hope to Americans that greater world peace was at hand.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

32% Can Speak a Language other than English

Nearly one-third of Americans aged 18 or older (32 percent) say they can speak a language other than English, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. This figure has been growing slowly over the years and is up from 28 percent a decade ago.

Not surprisingly, Asians and Hispanics are most likely to say they can speak a language other than English—83 and 69 percent, respectively. In contrast, only 22 percent of Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites are multilingual. By generation, the youngest Americans are most likely to be able to speak a language other than English...

Can speak a language other than English
iGeneration: 43%
Millennials: 39%
Gen Xers: 33%
Boomers: 26%
Older: 13%

Note: In 2018 the iGeneration was aged 18 to 23; Millennials were aged 24 to 41; Gen Xers were aged 42 to 53; Boomers were aged 54 to 72; and older Americans were aged 73 or older.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

Why Aren't More Men Working?

Fewer men of prime working age are in the labor force. Among men aged 25 to 54, the labor force participation rate fell from 96 percent in 1969 to 89 percent in 2018. Or, to put it another way, more than 1 in 10 men of prime working age are not in the labor force today, up from 1 in 25 in 1969. What accounts for this increase? A BLS examination of the characteristics of nonworking men deepens the mystery—and may reveal the answer.

Using data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, BLS economist Donna Rothstein compares the characteristics of nonworking men aged 30 to 36 from two cohorts—those born from 1960 through 1964 and those born from 1980 through 1984. She defines "nonworking" as men who had not worked for at least one year prior to the NLSY interview. Her analysis reveals that, if anything, the younger cohort of nonworking men was less disadvantaged than the older cohort...

• The percentage of nonworkers with a health condition that limited their ability to work fell from 51 percent in the older cohort to 41 percent in the younger cohort.  
• The percentage of nonworkers who were interviewed in prison (making it impossible to work) fell from 24 percent in the older cohort to 16 percent in the younger cohort.
• The percentage of nonworkers with scores in the bottom 25th percentile of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (administered by the NLSY survey) was 64 percent in the older cohort and a smaller 53 percent in the younger cohort. 

Being less disadvantaged than the older cohort, men in the younger cohort should have been more likely to work. But Rothstein's analysis uncovers a difference that might explain their lower labor force participation. Nonworking men in the  younger cohort were much less likely than those in the older cohort to have ever married: 70 percent of the nonworkers in the younger cohort had never married versus 52 percent in the older cohort. According to a recent NBER study, this fact may be the key. The NBER study theorizes that the decline in marriage is the reason men of prime working age are less likely to be in the labor force. Without the pressure to support a family, men are less likely to work.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Men Who Do Not Work During Their Prime Years: Who do the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth Data Reveal?

How Many First Marriages End in Divorce?

The expected duration of a first marriage is eight years shorter than it used to be, according to a study by sociologist Arun S. Hendi of Princeton University in the journal Demography. Nearly all of the decline occurred between 1960 and 1980, with little change between 1980 and 2010.

In the 1960s, first marriages had an expected duration of 34 years. By 1980, the figure had fallen to 26 years. Behind the decline was the rising probability of divorce. In the early 1960s, the probability of divorce was 20 to 22 percent. By the early 1980s, the probability of divorce had more than doubled, rising to 48 percent. Since 1980, the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce has not increased significantly, and the expected duration of a first marriage has remained at about 26 years.

This is a surprising finding, Hendi notes, because it "lies in contrast to other recent reports that the propensity for divorce has either increased dramatically or decreased. Period estimates indicate that the reality lies somewhere in between." Between 1980 and 2010, he says, "the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce increased by approximately 1%."

Source, Demography, Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010, Arun S. Hendi, Volume 56, Issue 3 ($39.95)

Men Prefer Beer. Women Prefer Wine

Beer is still the alcoholic beverage of choice for the largest share of drinking Americans (38 percent), but wine (30 percent) and liquor (29 percent) are not far behind. Men and women differ greatly in their choice of beer or wine. But they are about equally likely to drink liquor...

Drink beer most often
Men: 55%
Women: 21%

Drink wine most often
Men: 15%
Women: 45%

Drink liquor most often
Men: 26%
Women: 32%

Source: Gallup, Liquor Ties Wine as Second-Favorite Adult Beverage in U.S.

Use of CBD Products by Age

A surprisingly large 14 percent of Americans use CBD products, according to a Gallup survey. Young adults are most likely to use them...

Percent who personally use CBD products
Aged 18 to 29: 20%
Aged 30 to 49: 16%
Aged 50 to 64: 11%
Aged 65-plus: 8%

Half of adults say they do not use CBD products, and 35 percent have never heard of them.

Interestingly, the percentage of the population using CBD products is almost equal to the percentage who say they smoked marijuana in the past week (15 percent), according to another Gallup survey. Among people aged 65 or older, a larger share use CBD products (8 percent) than marijuana (3 percent).

Source: Gallup, 14% of Americans Say They Use CBD Products

How Close is Your Grocery Store?

How far do Americans live from the nearest supermarket? Using a combination of store and population data, the USDA's Economic Research Service estimated how far Americans have to go to get to the nearest store.

Percent distribution of population by distance to nearest supermarket
Under 0.5 miles: 30.0%
0.5 to 1.0 miles: 29.9%
More than 1.0 miles: 40.0%

The median distance to the nearest supermarket for the population as a whole is 0.88 miles. Not surprisingly, people in urban areas are closer to a food store than those in rural areas. The median distance to the nearest supermarket for people in urban areas is 0.69 miles, while people in rural areas are a median of 3.11 miles from the nearest store.

"Accessing affordable and nutritious food is a challenge for many Americans," explains the report. One of the goals of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts with "low access" to food stores. Low access is defined, for urban residents, as living more than 1 mile from the nearest supermarket. For rural residents, low-access is defined as living more than 10 miles from the nearest store. The state with the largest share of low-access census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is South Dakota (62.6 percent).

Another goal of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts that are both low access and low income. The state with the largest share of low-access/low-income census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is Mississippi (31.3 percent).

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Understanding Low-Income and Low-Access Census Tracts Across the Nation: Subnational and Subpopulation Estimates of Access to Healthy Food

Most People Can't Be Trusted

It's not only the number of candles on a birthday cake that separate younger from older Americans. A survey by Pew Research Center finds a huge attitudinal gap between young adults (aged 18 to 29) and older Americans (aged 65-plus) on matters of trust.

Pew surveyed Americans to measure their level of interpersonal trust, then categorized respondents as high, medium, or low trusters based on their answers to three questions—can people be trusted, do people try to be fair no matter what, and do people try to help others. Overall, 22 percent of adults are high trusters, 41 percent are medium trusters, and 35 percent are low trusters.

There are big differences by age. Nearly half (46 percent) of 18-to-29-year-olds are low trusters, reports Pew. Among people aged 65 or older, only 19 percent fall into this category. The 60 percent majority of young adults say most people can't be trusted (versus 29 percent of people aged 65 or older), 71 percent say most people try to take advantage of you if they get a chance (versus 39 percent), and 73 percent say most of the time people just look out for themselves (versus 48 percent).

Stark differences emerge between young adults and the oldest Americans on a number of other questions as well. For example, only 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds versus 67 percent of people aged 65 or older have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American people to respect the rights of those who are not like them. Just 44 percent of young adults versus 66 percent of those aged 65-plus have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American public to accept election results no matter who wins.

Source: Pew Research Center, Young Americans Are Less Trusting of Other People—and Key Institutions—than Their Elders

Unlike Boomers, Most Millennials Attended College Regardless of Family Income

Going to college was not the norm for the Baby-Boom generation. Among high school graduates born from 1960 through 1964, the youngest Boomers, only 44 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation. For Millennials, in contrast, going to college was the norm. Among Millennial high school graduates born from 1980 though 1984, a much larger 73 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation.

Family income largely determined the college attendance of Boomers, with the majority of those only in the top income quartile going to college. Not so for Millennials. The majority of Millennials in every family income quartile went to college. Here are the percentages attending college within four years of high school graduation by birth cohort and family income quartile...

Bottom income quartile
Born 1960–64: 32.5%
Born 1980–84: 62.3%

2nd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 41.4%
Born 1980–84: 66.1%

3rd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 43.2%
Born 1980–84: 74.0%

Top income quartile
Born 1960–64: 61.1%
Born 1980–84: 84.8%

The increase in college attendance among young adults with low and mid-level family incomes is one factor behind the rise in student debt over the past few decades.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Attendance and Completion Higher among Millennials than Youngest Baby Boomers

Have Gun in Home

Thirty-five percent of Americans have a gun in their home, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. Another 3 percent refused to say whether they had a gun. The percentage of households with a gun has fallen from a high of more than 50 percent in the early 1980s.

Gun ownership does not vary much by generation, ranging from a low of 31 percent among Millennials to a high of 40 percent among Gen Xers and Boomers. By region, households in the Northeast are least likely to own a gun (21 percent) and those in the Midwest and South most likely (41 percent). The biggest difference in gun ownership is by race and Hispanic origin...

Percent of households with guns by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
Black: 22.0%
Hispanic: 18.6%
Non-Hispanic White: 44.7%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Median Household Income Rises in June 2019

Median household income climbed 0.9 percent between May and June 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $64,430 June median was $593 greater than the May 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

"Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 1.8 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 15.9 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $55,612.  

Sentier's Household Income Index for June 2019 was 104.7 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the June 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 4.7 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. "Not an impressive performance by any means," says Green. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: June 2019

Weapons in Schools

School safety is a big concern, and a recent National Center for Education Statistics report shows why. In the 2017–18 school year, public schools reported 3,600 incidents in which a firearm or explosive device was brought into a school (3 percent of schools reported this type of incident) and 69,100 incidents in which a knife or sharp object was brought into a school (reported by 38 percent).

These reports are just the tip of the iceberg, judging from the results of the CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. This biennial survey of students in 9th through 12th grade was developed to monitor risky teen behaviors. According to the 2017 survey, 3.8 percent of students in 9th through 12th grade said they had carried a weapon (such as a gun, knife, club, etc.) onto school property in the past month. With 16.7 million high school students in the nation, this means more than 600,000 had brought a weapon to school in the past month. Among boys, 5.6 percent had done so. Boys in 11th and 12th grade were most likely to have brought a weapon to school—7.1 and 7.0 percent, respectively.

Overall, 6.0 percent of high school students say they were threatened or injured with a weapon on school property in the past year. Among boys, 7.8 percent had been threatened with a weapon. Boys in 9th grade were most likely to report this kind of experience, at 8.8 percent. 

Source: CDC, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, Youth Online High School Results

The Hispanic Paradox Grows

Hispanics have lower death rates and a longer life expectancy than non-Hispanic Whites. This is true despite the fact that Hispanics are poorer than non-Hispanic Whites and less likely to have health insurance. Their mortality advantage is known as the "Hispanic paradox" because demographers cannot explain it.

The Hispanic paradox is growing, according to a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of trends in mortality rates. For Hispanics aged 25 or older in 2017, the age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population was 31 percent lower than the rate for non-Hispanic Whites. In 2000, the Hispanic death rate was only 23 percent lower than the non-Hispanic White rate.

Death rate per 100,000 population aged 25 or older, 2017 (and 2000)
Hispanics: 784.4 (995.1)
Non-Hispanic Whites: 1,137.4 (1,288.1)

Between 2000 and 2017, the age-adjusted death rate for Hispanics aged 25 or older fell 21 percent. The non-Hispanic White death rate fell by only 12 percent. "The mortality advantage for Hispanic adults has endured through 2017," concludes the NCHS report, "and has been increasing with respect to non-Hispanic white adults."

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Trends by Race and Ethnicity among Adults Aged 25 and Over: United States, 2000–2017

Marijuana Almost as Popular as Cigarettes

More than one in four Americans (27 percent) smoked something in the past week, according to a Gallup survey. Fifteen percent of adults aged 18 or older smoked cigarettes, 12 percent smoked marijuana, and 8 percent vaped. (Some smoked more than one kind of product.)

Cigarettes are more popular than marijuana among the population as a whole, but marijuana is more popular than cigarettes in some demographic segments...

Young adults: 22 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds smoked marijuana in the past week. This figure greatly exceeds the 14 percent who smoked cigarettes. In every other age group, cigarettes are more popular than marijuana. Young adults are more likely to vape (19 percent) than smoke cigarettes.

College graduates: Smoking marijuana is more popular than cigarettes among college graduates—13 percent have smoked marijuana in the past week versus 9 percent who have smoked cigarettes. Among those with no college education, 20 percent had smoked cigarettes in the past week versus a smaller 13 percent who had smoked marijuana.

Affluent: Those with incomes of $100,000 or more are twice as likely to have smoked marijuana (10 percent) than cigarettes (5 percent) in the past week.

Source: Gallup, Marijuana Use Similar to New Lower Rate of Cigarette Smoking

Online "Almost Constantly" Continues to Rise

More than one in four American aged 18 or older say they are online "almost constantly," according to a 2019 Pew Research Center survey. Among adults, 28 percent say they are almost constantly online, up from 21 percent in 2015. Among the youngest adults, nearly half say they are online almost constantly...

Online "almost constantly"
Aged 18 to 29: 48%
Aged 30 to 49: 36%
Aged 50 to 64: 19%
Aged 65-plus: 7%

In addition to young adults, the other demographics segments most likely to be online almost constantly are college graduates (36 percent), Hispanics (34 percent), and those with a household income of $75,000 or more (34 percent).

Source: Pew Research Center, About Three-in-Ten U.S. Adults Say They Are 'Almost Constantly' Online

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, second quarter 2019: 56.1%

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group fell in the second quarter of 2019, down a significant 2.2 percentage points from the first-quarter figure. In the two previous quarters, the rate had exceeded 58 percent for the first time since 2011. But that rise may have been a blip, with the latest figure hovering not far above the post-Great Recession low of 54.6 percent in 2015. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. 

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was stable at 47.5 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the rate one year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Most Smokers Want (and Have Tried) to Quit

Don't get mad at smokers when you're dodging second-hand smoke on city streets, in doorways, alleys, and parking lots. Feel sorry for them instead. Most smokers do not want to smoke. Most have tried to quit—not just once upon a time but within the past year.

According to a government survey, 65 percent of adult smokers have attempted to quit in the past year. This surprisingly large figure is not big enough, says the CDC, which wants to see the attempted quit rate rise to 80 percent by 2020. Why is a larger number so important? Because the more smokers who attempt to quit, the more who will succeed. Apparently, quitting takes a lot of practice. Smokers who manage to quit have tried to do so an average of 30 times, the CDC reports.

Percentage of smokers who have attempted to quit in the past year by age, 2017
Total 18-plus: 65.4%
Aged 18 to 24: 76.4%
Aged 25 to 44: 68.6%
Aged 45 to 64: 60.8%
Aged 65-plus: 55.8%

In every state, most smokers have tried to quit in the past 12 months. The percentage ranges from a low of 58.6 percent in Wisconsin to a high of 71.6 percent in Connecticut.

Source: CDC, State-Specific Prevalence of Quit Attempts among Adult Cigarette Smokers—United States, 2011–2017

Median Sales Price of New Homes Slips

The median sales price of new single-family houses sold fell slightly in 2018 to $326,400. This is below the 2017 record high of $331,000, after adjusting for inflation. Until 2018, the median sales price of new single-family houses sold had increased in every year since 2011.

Median sales price of new single-family homes sold, 2005 to 2018 (in 2018 dollars)
2018: $326,400
2017: $331,000 (record high)
2016: $322,000
2015: $311,700
2011: $253,600 (post Great Recession low)
2010: $255,400
2005: $309,700 (pre Great Recession high)

Perhaps there's a reason new home prices fell a bit in 2018. The falling price may be due to a lack of customers. Sales of new single-family houses are struggling to return to their historical average prior to the Great Recession. Between 1978 and 1999, an average of 652,000 new single-family houses were sold each year. In 2018, only 617,000 were sold—well below the average despite a bigger population and the presence of the large Millennial generation in the home buying age groups.

Source: Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing

Bad Guys with Guns

How many criminals carry a gun when they commit their crime? Fewer than you might think. Only 21 percent of all state and federal prisoners carried or possessed a firearm during the crime for which they were imprisoned, according to a survey by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Among criminals who possessed a gun, most used it in some way and 27 percent shot and killed someone. Here are the outcomes for state prisoners who possessed a gun during their offense...

State prisoners who possessed a firearm during the offense for which they were imprisoned
Total who possessed firearm: 100.0%
Did not use firearm: 32.0%
Showed, pointed, or discharged firearm: 68.0%
  Discharged firearm: 46.5%
     Killed victim: 27.1%
     Shot but did not kill victim: 12.4%
     Discharged firearm but did not shoot anyone: 7.0%
  Did not discharge firearm: 21.5%

Where did these guns come from? Among all state and federal prisoners who possessed a gun when they committed the offense for which they were imprisoned, the largest share—43 percent—obtained the gun from the street or in the underground market. Another 25 percent got their gun from a family member or friend. Only 10 percent bought the gun at a retail store.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016

Many Teens Are Trying to Lose Weight

More than one in three teenagers has tried to lose weight in the past year, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Among 16-to-19-year-olds in 2013–16, a substantial 38 percent have tried to lose weight, up from 24 percent in 2009–10.

Girls are more likely than boys to have tried to lose weight—45.2 percent of girls versus 30.1 percent of boys. Here is the percentage of 16-to-19-year-olds who tried to lose weight in the past year by sex, race, and Hispanic origin...

Percentage of 16-to-19-year-olds who tried to lose weight in past year
54.8% of Hispanic girls
46.6% of Hispanic boys
42.6% of non-Hispanic Black girls
41.3% of non-Hispanic Asian girls
40.7% of non-Hispanic White girls
25.7% of non-Hispanic White boys
20.6% of non-Hispanic Black boys
18.7% of non-Hispanic Asian boys

Obese teens are most likely to try to lose weight, with 77.7 percent trying in the past year. Among teens who are overweight but not obese, the 58.9 percent majority had attempted to lose weight. Among teens with normal weight, 18.5 percent had tried to shed pounds. The most commonly reported methods for losing weight were exercising (83.5 percent), drinking more water (52.3 percent), and eating less (48.6 percent).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Attempts to Lose Weight among Adolescents Aged 16–19 in the United States, 2013–16

(Only) 23% Want to Spend More on Space Exploration

Should the U.S. spend more on space exploration? Only about one in four Americans aged 18 or older say yes, according to the General Social Survey. That's not many supporters, but it's a lot more than it used to be.

Percent who think the U.S. spends too little on space exploration

2018: 22.8%

2008: 13.6%

1998: 10.3%

1988: 18.4%

1978: 12.9%

1975:   8.0%

The Apollo program put a man on the Moon 50 years ago tomorrow, on July 20, 1969. The program ended a few years later in 1975. It's easy to see why. At the time, only 8 percent of the public said the U.S. was spending too little on space exploration. Fully 60 percent thought we were spending too much. 

Times have changed. The share of Americans who think we're spending too much on space exploration fell from 60 percent in 1975 to just 25 percent in 2018. A nearly equal number—23 percent—now want to spend more on space exploration, nearly three times the 8 percent of 1975. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Big Increase in Deaths due to Unintentional Injuries

The third leading cause of death in the United States is what the CDC calls "unintentional injuries"—or accidents. Because a growing number of people are dying from unintentional injuries, this cause of death has been rising among leading causes of death. From 2000 through 2012, it was the fifth leading cause of death. It rose to fourth place in 2013 and climbed into third place in 2015, behind only heart disease and cancer.

Not only were there 74 percent more accidental deaths in 2017 than in 2000, but the age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population grew from 34.9 to 49.4 during those years. Three types of unintentional injuries account for the great majority of accidental deaths—drug overdoses, motor vehicle accidents, and falls. These three causes accounted for 80 percent of all unintentional injury deaths in 2017...

Unintentional injury deaths in 2017
Total deaths: 169,936 (100.0%)
Drug overdoses: 61,311 (36.1%)
Motor vehicles: 38,659 (22.7%)
Falling: 36,338 (21.4%)
Other: 33,628 (19.8%)

Drug overdoses are the most common type of accidental death, accounting for 36 percent of unintentional injury deaths in 2017. The number of accidental drug overdoses more than quadrupled between 2000 and 2017. The age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population climbed from 4.1 to 19.1 during those years.

Motor vehicle accidents were once the most common type of accidental death, but drug overdoses surpassed them in 2013. The number of motor vehicle deaths has fallen slightly over the years—from 41,994 in 2000 to 38,659 in 2017. The age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population fell from 14.9 to 11.5 during those years.

Falls, like drug overdoses, are a growing cause of accidental death. In 2017 there were almost as many deaths from falls as there were from motor vehicle accidents. This was not the case in 2000, when motor vehicle deaths outnumbered deaths from falls by more than three to one. Growth of the 85-plus population is one reason for the greater number of deaths from falls.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Unintentional Injury Death Rates in Rural and Urban Areas: United States, 1999–2017

College Graduates One Year Later

Earning a college degree is still worth the cost, say the experts. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Board, for example, finds the rate of return on a bachelor's degree is much greater than the rate of return on other investments.

The Fed's finding may comfort recent college graduates. They need encouragement. That's because most are in debt and not yet making much money, according to a longitudinal study by the National Center for Education Statistics. The study looked at the status of 2015–16 college graduates one year after they received their degree. Here are some of the findings...

• The 67 percent majority had borrowed money to pay for their education, with the average cumulative amount borrowed a hefty $30,500. 
• The median annualized earnings of those who with a full-time job was just $39,900.
• Only 47 percent had a salaried job.
• One in four worked for an employer who did not offer job benefits such as health insurance or a retirement plan. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Baccalaureate and Beyond (B&B:16/17): A First Look at the Employment and Educational Experiences of College Graduates, 1 Year Later

Why Are So Many Households Financially Fragile?

Forty-one percent of American households say they would have trouble paying an unexpected $400 expense, according to the Federal Reserve Board's 2017 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). What accounts for this astonishingly high figure? That's what Anqi Chen of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wanted to find out. To determine the reasons for the financial fragility of such a large swath of the population, Chen analyzed 2017 SHED data and the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances.

Low-income households are most likely to say they could not pay for an unexpected $400 expense. A substantial share of higher-income households also say they could not do it...

Household could not pay for an unexpected $400 expense, by household income
Under $25,000: 72%
$25,000 to $49,999: 59%
$50,000 to $74,999: 40%
$75,000 to $99,999: 34%
$100,000 or more: 17%

Chen found several reasons for this widespread financial fragility. About half of those who say they could not pay an unexpected $400 expense literally do not have $400 in their checking or savings accounts. The question is, why do those who have the money in their bank accounts feel so fragile? Because their funds are needed to pay down debt, says Chen. Student loans, installment loans, and oversized mortgages prevent many households with solidly middle-class incomes from accumulating a rainy day fund that could cover an unexpected $400 expense.

Source: Center for Retirement Research, Why Are So Many Households Unable to Cover a $400 Unexpected Expense?

Let's Send an Astronaut to Mars!

Democrats and Republicans agree about one thing—Americans of both political persuasions want to see an astronaut go to Mars. The 55 percent majority of both Democrats and Republicans are in favor of the United States spending money to send an astronaut to the Red Planet. By age, support for sending an astronaut to Mars does not vary all that much either...

Percent who support sending an astronaut to Mars
Total adults: 53%
Aged 18 to 29: 65%
Aged 30 to 49: 54%
Aged 50 to 64: 48%
Aged 65-plus: 46%

The public's support for sending an astronaut to Mars has been growing. Among total adults, only 43 percent favored it in 1999, 10 percentage points below the level of 2019. During those years, the biggest increase in support occurred among Americans aged 65 or older. Only 21 percent of older Americans wanted to spend money to send an astronaut to Mars in 1999. Perhaps because boomers have been filling the 65-plus age group, support has grown to the 46 percent of today.

Source: Gallup, For First Time, Majority in U.S. Backs Human Mission to Mars

U.S. Is Biggest Net Importer of Cuisines

American culture may dominate movies and music around the world, but it does not dominate restaurant cuisines, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study.

University of Minnesota economist Joe Waldfogel uses TripAdvisor data on 148 restaurant cuisines and Euromonitor data on restaurant expenditures in at least the top 60 cities of 52 countries. After analyzing this voluminous data, Waldfogel's principal finding is that the U.S. is the world's largest net importer of cuisines, with a deficit of $130 billion in 2017, excluding fast food. When fast food is included, the deficit falls to $55 billion, but the U.S. remains the biggest net importer of cuisines. Italy and Japan are the largest net exporters of their cuisines, followed by Mexico, Turkey, Thailand, and France.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Dining Out as Cultural Trade, NBER Working Paper 26020 ($5)

Single-Person Households Will Grow the Most

During the decade ahead, single-person households are projected to increase more than any other type, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The number of single-person households will expand by nearly 5 million between 2018 and 2028—a 13 percent increase. This compares with a 10 percent rise in the total number of households during the time period (from 127.8 million to 140.0 million). Most of the growth in single-person households will take place in the 65-plus age group.

The aging of the population will also lead to an expansion in the number of married couples without children under age 18 at home—most of them empty nesters. These households will increase by 4 million, a 10 percent rise. At the same time, the number of married couples with children under age 18 at home is projected to increase by a below-average 7 percent—a gain of less than 2 million.

Number of households in 2018 and 2028 (and percent increase, 2018 to 2028)
Married couples, no kids: 39.2 million, rising to 42.9 million (10%)
Single-person households: 34.7 million, rising to 39.4 million (13%)
Married couples, with kids: 24.4 million, rising to 26.0 million (7%)
Other types of households: 19.0 million, rising to 20.5 million (8%)
Unmarried with kids: 10.6 million, rising to 11.2 million (6%)

Note: "With kids" refers to children under age 18 at home.

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Updated Household Growth Projections: 2018–2028 and 2028–2038, Appendix Tables

Time Spent Alone Increases with Age

Americans aged 60 or older spend more than half their waking hours alone—7 hours a day, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. This is more time alone than any other age group. People aged 40 to 59 spend 4.75 hours alone, and those under age 40 spend 3.5 hours alone on an average day.

Among people aged 60 or older, those who live alone spend the most time alone—10 hours 33 minutes on an average day. Alone time among those with a spouse is just half that, at 5 hours 21 minutes a day. Older women spend more time alone than their male counterparts because they are more likely to be widowed and increasingly so with age...

Daily time spent alone (hours:minutes) among women aged 60 or older
Aged 60 to 69: 6:40
Aged 70 to 79: 7:53
Aged 80-plus: 8:34

Note: Measured time includes all waking hours, except for time spent in personal activities.

Source: Pew Research Center, On Average, Older Adults Spend Over Half Their Waking Hours Alone

Online Banking Is the Norm

The use of online banking is nearly universal in the United States today, according to FINRA's latest National Financial Capability Study. Fully 84 percent of Americans with bank accounts use online, computer-based (laptop or desktop) banking at least sometimes. The 59 percent majority uses online, computer-based banking frequently.

Mobile banking is also now the norm. Fully 65 percent of Americans with bank accounts say they use their phone to bank at least sometimes, and 42 percent do so frequently.

Online banking using a laptop or desktop computer does not vary much by age, while mobile banking is much more common among young adults...

Use online banking via a laptop or desktop computer
Aged 18 to 34: 87%
Aged 35 to 54: 85%
Aged 55-plus: 81%

Use mobile banking via a smartphone
Aged 18 to 34: 87%
Aged 35 to 54: 74%
Aged 55-plus: 42%

A substantial portion of the population uses smartphones to pay at point of sale, with 35 percent doing so at least sometimes. About the same percentage (37 percent) use their phones at least sometimes to transfer money to another person—such as through the Venmo or Zelle apps. Younger adults are most likely to do these things. Among 18-to-34-year-olds, 53 percent have used their mobile phone to pay at point of sale, and 60 percent have transferred money to another person using their phone. Among people aged 55 or older, the figures are just 17 and 15 percent, respectively.

Source: FINRA Investor Education Foundation, The State of U.S. Financial Capability: The 2018 National Financial Capability Study

Median Household Income Falls Slightly in May 2019

Median household income fell slightly to $63,799 in May 2019. This was $353 lower than the April 2019 median after adjusting for inflation, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

The May 2019 median was 0.9 percent higher than the May 2018 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was 14.4 percent higher than the post-Great Recession low reached in June 2011 ($55,783)—a bottom hit two years after the official end of the Great Recession.

Sentier's Household Income Index for May 2019 was 103.4 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the May 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 3.4 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. "Not an impressive performance by any means," says Green. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: May 2019

Only 45% Are Extremely Proud to be an American

Pride in being an American has hit the lowest point since Gallup began to ask the question in 2001. Only 45 percent of adults today are "extremely proud" to be an American—the second consecutive year below 50 percent, reports Gallup. This figure was as high as 70 percent in 2003, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Pride in being an American is highly polarized today not only by political affiliation but also by age...

Percent "extremely" proud to be an American, 2019
76% of Republicans
63% of people aged 65 or older
57% of people aged 50 to 64
38% of people aged 30 to 49
24% of people aged 18 to 29
22% of Democrats

The percentage of Republicans who are extremely proud to be an American has grown since Trump was elected, rising from 68 percent in 2016 to the 76 percent of today. The percentage of Democrats who are extremely proud to be an American has plunged since Trump was elected, falling from 44 percent in 2016 to the 22 percent of today. "Record-low American patriotism is the latest casualty of the sharply polarized political climate in the U.S. today," Gallup concludes.

Source: Gallup, American Pride Hits New Low; Few Proud of Political System

60% of Preschoolers Are in Day Care

The 60 percent majority of children under age 6 and not yet in kindergarten participate in at least one weekly nonparental care arrangement. Among infants under age 1, just 47 percent are in nonparental care at least once a week. The share is 54 percent among 1- and 2-year-olds and rises to 73 percent among children aged 3 to 5.

Distribution of preschoolers in nonparental care at least once a week by type of arrangement
42% are in a day care center only
20% are cared for by a grandparent only
  9% are cared for by a nonrelative in another home only
  5% are cared for by an aunt/uncle/other relative only
  3% are cared for by a nonrelative in own home only
20% have multiple types of arrangements

The percentage of children cared for by a grandparent only is highest among infants, at 38 percent. A smaller 26 percent of 1- and 2-year-olds are cared for only by grandparents, with the figure falling to just 8 percent among 3-to-5-year-olds. The percentage who are in a day care center only rises with age from 21 percent of infants to 56 percent of 3-to-5-year-olds.

Child care can be costly. Two-thirds of parents who use nonparental care pay for the service. The average out-of-pocket cost for those who pay is $6.93 per hour. That's $139 a week for 20 hours and $277 a week for 40 hours of care.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Costs of Child Care: Results from the 2016 Early Childhood Program Participation Survey

Where Kids Go to School

Despite the rise of charter schools, the great majority of children in grades 1 through 12 attend a traditional public school...

Distribution of children in grades 1 through 12 by type of school attended
85.9% attend a traditional public school
  4.6% attend a charter school
  7.6% attend a religious private school
  1.9% attend a nonsectarian private school

The above figures do not include homeschooled children. Overall, 3.3 percent of children aged 5 to 17 are homeschooled.

Among parents with children enrolled in grades 1 through 12 at a public school, 20 percent moved to their current neighborhood for its school. Those most likely to move to a neighborhood for its public school are Asians (27.4 percent), parents with a bachelor's (24.5 percent) or graduate (30.2 percent) degree, those with family incomes at least two times the poverty level (23.6 percent), and suburban residents (24.4 percent).

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2017

How Many Americans Are Gay?

According to the American public, fully 23.6 percent of the U.S. population—nearly one in four adults—is gay, lesbian, or bisexual. That's what a Gallup survey finds. This guesstimate by the public is far larger than what Americans report when they are asked about their sexual orientation.

When Gallup asked about sexual orientation in 2017, only 4.5 percent of adults identified themselves as gay, lesbian, or bisexual. When the General Social Survey asked about sexual orientation in 2018, only 5.0 percent identified themselves as gay, lesbian, or bisexual.

But many Americans are hesitant to identify themselves as LGBTQ—especially older people. So a more accurate measure of the gay, lesbian, or bisexual population is likely to be found in the responses of younger adults—Millennials. According to the 2017 Gallup survey, 8.2 percent of Millennials identify themselves as LGBTQ versus only 2.4 percent of Baby Boomers. According to the 2018 General Social Survey, 8.9 percent of Millennials identify themselves as gay, lesbian, or bisexual versus 1.6 percent of Boomers.

Even among Millennials, however, the percentage who identify themselves as gay, lesbian, or bisexual has been rising as the public's acceptance of the LGBTQ population has grown. Only 5.8 percent of Millennials identified themselves as gay, lesbian, or bisexual in 2012, reports Gallup, well below the 8.2 percent of 2017. So, it's likely that the LGBTQ population is even larger than the responses of young adults suggest. But it's unlikely to be as high as the public's guesstimate of 23.6 percent of Americans.

Source: Gallup, Americans Still Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population

Fewer Are Reading Because of Smartphones and TV

Reading for personal interest continues to decline as a leisure activity. The percentage of Americans who read on an average day fell from 24.9 percent in 2007 (prior to the Great Recession and before smartphones became a thing) to just 17.5 percent in 2018. During those years, the number of people who read for personal interest on an average day fell from 57 million to 46 million—a loss of more than 10 million daily participants despite a growing U.S. population.

Percent reading for personal interest on an average day, 2018 (and 2007)
Aged 15 to 19:   8.3% (  9.4%)
Aged 20 to 24:   6.9% (  9.0%)
Aged 25 to 34:   8.4% (13.3%)
Aged 35 to 44: 13.3% (18.6%)
Aged 45 to 54: 13.6% (27.5%)
Aged 55 to 64: 21.4% (35.4%)
Aged 65-plus:  36.9% (50.3%)

While the lure of the smartphone screen and video gaming are the probable reasons for the reading decline among younger adults, television is the likely culprit among people aged 65 or older. The amount of time people aged 65-plus watch television on an average day grew from 3.98 to 4.51 hours between 2007 and 2018.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 American Time Use Survey

Suicide Rate Continues to Rise

The suicide rate in the United States continues to rise. A recent study by the National Center for Health Statistics examines the increase by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin. The results are disturbing and a sign that something is very wrong.

The age-adjusted suicide rate climbed 33 percent between 1999 and 2017— from 10.5 to 14.0 deaths per 100,000 standard population. (To compare deaths over time, statisticians age-adjust the rates so that results are not affected by changes in the age structure of the population.) The 33 percent increase is bad, but it is dwarfed by even larger increases in some age groups...

• The age-adjusted male suicide rate rose 26 percent between 1999 and 2017. The rate increased significantly in all but the oldest age group (75-plus). The biggest increases in the rate occurred among 10-to-14-year-olds (up 74 percent) and 45-to-64-year-olds (up 45 percent). 
• The age-adjusted female suicide rate grew by 53 percent between 1999 and 2017, although females remain far less likely than males to commit suicide. In 2017, the age-adjusted female suicide rate was 6.1 deaths per 100,000 population versus the 22.4 deaths for males. The suicide rate among females increased significantly in all but the oldest age group (75-plus). Between 1999 and 2017, the biggest increases in the female suicide rate occurred in the 10-to-14 (up 240 percent) and 15-to-24 (up 93 percent) age groups.

Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States and the 8th leading cause of death among males. By race and Hispanic origin, the suicide rate for both males and females is highest among American Indians and non-Hispanic Whites.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Suicide Rates for Females and Males by Race and Ethnicity: United States, 1999 and 2017

Non-Hispanic Whites: 60% of Total Population in 2018

For the second year in a row, the non-Hispanic White population fell slightly, according to the Census Bureau's population estimates for 2018. The number of non-Hispanic Whites peaked in 2016, fell by 95,000 between 2016 and 2017 and by another 152,000 between 2017 and 2018.

Among non-Hispanic Whites, every age group under age 25 lost population between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest decline (3.3 percent) occurring among 20-to-24-year-olds. Non-Hispanic Whites accounted for the 60 percent majority of the total U.S. population in 2018. The share will fall below 50 percent in 2045, according to Census Bureau projections.

Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2018 (numbers in millions)
Total: 327.2 (100.0%)
Asian: 22.6 (6.9%)
Black: 47.8 (14.6%)
Hispanic: 59.9 (18.3%)
Non-Hispanic White: 197.5 (60.4%)

Note: Asians and Blacks are those who identify themselves as being of the race alone or in combination with other races. Hispanics may be of any race. Not all races are shown.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics, 2010–2018

Who Finds It Hard to Make Ends Meet?

Nearly one in four Americans reports that it is fairly or very difficult for them to make ends meet, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. Here's the survey question: "Thinking of your household's total income, including all the sources of income of all the members who contribute to it, how difficult or easy is it currently for your household to make ends meet?"

How difficult/easy to make ends meet?
Very difficult: 6.5%
Fairly difficult: 16.6%
Neither difficult nor easy: 26.6%
Fairly easy: 32.8%
Very easy: 17.5%

Perhaps the most interesting finding when analyzing the results by demographic characteristic is how little difference the demographics make. By generation, for example, the percentage who find it fairly or very difficult to make ends meet ranges narrowly from a low of 22 percent in the generation preceding the baby boom (aged 73 or older in 2018) to a high of 28 percent among Gen Xers. By race and Hispanic origin, the figure is lowest among non-Hispanic Whites (21 percent) and highest among Blacks (30 percent). The biggest demographic gap is by education. Among people without a bachelor's degree, 29 percent find it fairly or very difficult to make ends meet. Among those with a bachelor's degree, only 10 percent are struggling.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

Friends Across Generations

It is not the norm to have a close friend who is at least 15 years older or younger than you are, according to an AARP survey. Only 37 percent of all adults say they have a close friend who is 15 or more years older or younger. By generation, here is the percentage who have a close cross-generational friendship...

Millennials: 32%
Gen Xers: 41%
Boomers: 39%

The most likely way of meeting a close friend who is so much older or younger is at work, cited by 26 percent of those with such friends.

Source: AARP,  The Positive Impact of Intergenerational Friendships

Unauthorized Immigrant Population Peaked in 2012

The number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States has fallen by 1.7 million since the 2012 peak. There were 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2017, according to estimates by Pew Research Center's Jeffrey S. Passel and D'Vera Cohn. This is well below the 12.2 million of 2012. Behind the decline is a steep drop in unauthorized immigrants from Mexico, with the number falling from 6.9 million (57 percent of the total) in 2012 to 4.9 million (47 percent of the total) in 2017. The number from Mexico declined because, since 2012, more have left the U.S. than have arrived here.

The shift in the origin of unauthorized immigrants in the United States is a sign of change, says Pew. "A growing share of U.S. unauthorized immigrants do not cross the border illegally, but probably arrive with legal visas and overstay their required departure date," Pew explains.

Of the 46 million foreign-born residents of the United States, 23 percent are unauthorized immigrants, according to Pew estimates...

Total foreign-born population = 45.6 million in 2017
45% are naturalized citizens (20.7 million)
27% are lawful permanent residents (12.3 million)
23% are unauthorized immigrants (10.5 million)
5% are temporary lawful residents (2.2 million)

Source: Pew Research Center, Mexicans Decline to Less than Half the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population for the First Time