First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2021: 48.2%

Homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2021 continue to fall from the stratospheric heights reached in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) and consequently distorted homeownership trends. The ongoing downward shift means that householders aged 30 to 34 are still falling short of the honorary First-Time Homebuyer title.   

The overall homeownership rate in the first quarter of 2021 was 65.6 percent, not significantly different from the 65.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) fell by a full percentage point between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never been below 50 percent in the data series that goes back to 1982. 

Yes, it may be a seller's market in the housing industry right now, but the demand for housing is not translating into noticeably higher homeownership rates in any age group. The seller's market is a consequence of the pandemic-related shortage of houses for sale.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

A Few Surprises in the First 2020 Census Results

April 1, 2020, was undoubtedly one of the worst times to conduct a decennial census. Just a few weeks before Census Day, on March 13, the United States had declared a state of emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic. Businesses were closed down. States were in lockdown. Students fled college campuses and returned to their hometowns. It was a mess. That's why we've waited so long for 2020 census numbers—the Census Bureau has been busy ensuring that the "2020 census results meet our high quality standards." Yesterday, the first results were released—population counts for the nation as a whole and the 50 states. 

The 2020 census counts differ from the Census Bureau's 2020 population estimates in some surprising ways... 

• Population growth was greater than estimated. The Census Bureau had estimated a 2020 population of 329 million—6.7 percent more U.S. residents than in 2010. This would have made the 2010s the slowest decade of growth in U.S. history. Instead, the 2020 Census counted 331,440,281 U.S. residents as of April 1, 2020. This is nearly 2 million more than estimated, resulting in a growth rate of 7.4 percent for the decade. Consequently, the 2010s was not the slowest decade of growth in U.S. history but the second slowest. The 1930s retains its position as the decade of slowest growth, when the population grew by 7.3 percent.
• Some of the fastest-growing states did not grow quite as fast as estimated. Arizona, for example, was estimated to have grown by 16 percent over the decade, but the 2020 census reveals the state's growth to have been a smaller 12 percent, with 270,000 fewer people living in the state in 2020 than had been estimated. Similarly, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas came up short as well. While these states grew faster than most others, they did not grow quite as fast as estimated.
• Some of the slowest-growing states gained more people than estimated. The population of New Jersey, for example, was estimated to have grown by 1 percent between 2010 and 2020. But the 2020 census shows that New Jersey's population grew by a much larger 5.7 percent—407,700 more people than had been estimated. Similarly, rather than declining by 0.2 percent over the decade, New York State's population grew by 4.2 percent—an additional 864,000 people. The pattern is the same for Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 
• Only three states lost population during the decade rather than the five estimated. The losing states were Illinois (-0.1 percent), Mississippi (-0.2 percent), and West Virginia (-3.2 percent). Connecticut and New York had been estimated to lose population but instead made gains. 

Source: Census Bureau, 2020 Census Apportionment Results

Educational Attainment in 2020

It used to be that men were much more likely than women to have a bachelor's degree. You can see this history in the educational attainment of men and women aged 70 or older today. There is a hefty 10 percentage-point gap in bachelor's degree attainment between older men and women. Over the decades, women not only caught up to men in the pursuit of a college degree but surpassed them. Among 25-to-34-year-olds, women are 9 percentage points more likely than men to have a bachelor's degree—almost as big a gap as among those aged 70 or older, but in the opposite direction. 

Percent of people aged 25 or older with a bachelor's degree or more education by age and sex, and percentage point difference between women and men, 2020

	total	men	women	difference
Aged 25-plus	37.5%	36.7%	38.3%	1.7
Aged 25 to 29	39.2	34.7	43.8	9.0
Aged 30 to 34	43.0	38.7	47.4	8.7
Aged 35 to 39	43.4	40.2	46.6	6.4
Aged 40 to 44	40.9	37.5	44.2	6.7
Aged 45 to 49	41.1	38.5	43.5	5.0
Aged 50 to 54	38.6	36.9	40.2	3.3
Aged 55 to 59	33.6	33.3	33.9	0.6
Aged 60 to 64	32.6	32.5	32.7	0.3
Aged 65 to 69	35.3	37.0	33.8	-3.1
Aged 70 to 74	34.5	39.9	29.7	-10.2
Aged 75-plus	29.6	35.3	25.3	-10.0

Source: Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2020

Family Unemployment Doubled between 2019 and 2020

Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues a report on the employment characteristics of families. The most recent report, with annual averages for 2020, compares family employment during the coronavirus pandemic with the 2019 numbers. The data come from the Current Population Survey, which defines families as two or more people who live together and are related by birth, marriage, or adoption. 

The share of families with at least one unemployed member doubled between 2019 and 2020—rising from 4.9 to 9.8 percent—as the pandemic upended the job market. Hispanic families were most likely to have a family member unemployed in 2020 (14.3 percent), while white families were least likely (9.0 percent)...

Families with at least one family member unemployed in 2020 (and 2019)

Total families: 9.8% (4.9%)

Asian families: 10.9% (4.0%)

Black families: 13.4% (8.0%)

Hispanic families: 14.3% (6.6%)

White families: 9.0% (4.5%)

Note: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has long refused to distinguish non-Hispanic whites from the total white population in its data releases. Consequently, the white statistics shown here also include Hispanics who identify their race as white, which most do. It is likely that unemployment in families headed by non-Hispanic whites is even lower than the white data presented above. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families—2020

States with the Oldest and Youngest Housing Stock

The age of the housing stock varies dramatically across the country. States with an older housing stock are those that have been densely settled for generations. States with a younger housing stock are the ones that have experienced recent rapid growth. 

In the United States as a whole, 12.3 percent of housing units were built in 1939 or earlier (80-plus years ago), according to the Census Bureau's 2019 American Community Survey. But in some states, the figure is more than twice as high...

The five states with the largest percentage of housing units built in 1939 or earlier

1. District of Columbia: 32.8%

2. Massachusetts: 31.6%

3. New York: 31.1%

4. Rhode Island: 30.3%

5. Pennsylvania: 25.9%

At the other extreme, only 4.6 percent of housing units in the U.S. were built recently—within the past five years. But the figure is nearly double that in a few states...

The five states with the largest percentage of housing units built in 2014 or later

1. North Dakota: 9.0%

2. Texas: 9.0%

3. Utah: 8.9%

4. Idaho: 8.0%

5. South Carolina: 7.7%

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey Ranking Tables

3.8 Million Americans Were Victims of Stalking in 2016

A new report by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) presents the latest data on victims of stalking. The report is as chilling as a Stephen King novel. 

The stalking data were collected by the 2016 Supplemental Victimization Survey of the National Crime Victimization Survey. The BJS defines stalking as "repeated unwanted contacts or behaviors that either cause the victim to experience fear or substantial emotional distress or that would cause a reasonable person to experience fear or substantial emotional distress."

In the past 12 months, 3,788,800 U.S. residents aged 16 or older reported being stalked. That's 1.5 percent of the population who experienced either traditional stalking, technology stalking, or both. The BJS defines traditional stalking as "sneaking into, waiting at, or showing up at a place; leaving or sending unwanted items; or harassing friends or family about the victim's whereabouts." Technology stalking is defined as "making unwanted phone calls, leaving voice mail messages, or sending text messages; spying using technology; tracking the victim's whereabouts with an electronic tracking device or application; posting or threatening to post unwanted information on the internet; sending emails or messages using the internet; or monitoring activities using social media." 

Got goosebumps? 

Nearly half of stalking victims are stalked in both ways—traditionally and with technology. Among the 2.5 million who were stalked traditionally, 59 percent said the offender followed them and watched them—the single most common traditional stalking behavior. Among the 3.1 million who were stalked with technology, the most common stalking behavior was excessive calling (phone calls/voice messages/text messages), reported by 67 percent.

Women (2.0 percent) are twice as likely as men (0.9 percent) to be victims of stalking. Young adults aged 20 to 24 are more likely to be victims (2.3 percent) than those in any other age group. The divorced (2.8 percent) or separated (3.7 percent) are much more likely to be stalked than the married (0.8 percent). 

Who is doing all this stalking? Ex-partners make up the single largest offender group (21 percent). But offenders can be acquaintances or relatives of a spouse or ex-spouse (10 percent), professional acquaintances (8 percent), roommates or neighbors (7 percent), and even strangers (17 percent). 

Sixty-two percent of victims report that the stalking has stopped, with 51 percent saying they took measures to stop it. These measures included blocking their phone number or getting a new phone/computer (23 percent), moving (8 percent), or getting a restraining order (5 percent). Police intervention did the trick for 7 percent of victims. Another 5 percent said the behavior stopped because the offender was arrested/incarcerated. Not all victims of stalking are this lucky, however. For a substantial 28 percent, the stalking is ongoing. 

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Stalking Victimization, 2016

60% of Americans Say Marijuana Should Be Legal for Medical and Recreational Uses

The legalization of marijuana is supported by the great majority of Americans. Fully 92 percent of adults say marijuana should be legal at least for medical purposes and 60 percent say it should be legal for medical and recreational uses, according to a Pew Research Center survey. 

The percentage who favor the legalization of marijuana for medical and recreational purposes is highest among younger adults, reports Pew. But even among people aged 65 to 74, the 53 percent majority favor legalization not just for medical purposes but also for recreational use...

Marijuana should be legal for medical AND recreational uses

Total 18-plus: 60%

Aged 18 to 29: 70%

Aged 30 to 49: 65%

Aged 50 to 64: 59%

Aged 65 to 74: 53%

Aged 75-plus: 32%

Source: Pew Research Center, Americans Overwhelmingly Say Marijuana Should Be Legal for Recreational or Medical Use

Rural Resistance to the Covid Vaccine

Americans who live in rural areas are more resistant to getting the Covid-19 vaccine than urban or suburban residents, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey fielded March 15-29, 2021. While 10 percent of urban residents and 13 percent of suburban residents say they will "definitely not" get the vaccine, the figure is a much higher 21 percent among adults who live in rural areas. 

The Kaiser survey explored vaccine resistance in rural America by the characteristics of residents. Here are some of the findings...

Percent of rural residents who say they will "definitely not" get the Covid-19 vaccine

All rural residents: 21%

Aged 65-plus: 10%

Aged 50-64:19%

Aged 18-49: 28%

Blacks: 10%

Hispanics: 18%

Non-Hispanic whites: 22%

College degree: 13%

No college degree: 23%

Democrats: 4%

Republicans: 32%

White evangelicals: 31%

Among rural residents who say they will "definitely not" get the Covid-19 vaccine, 83 percent are non-Hispanic whites, 73 percent are Republicans, and 41 percent are white evangelicals.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor—Rural America 

Black Homeownership in 2020 Is below 2000 Level

The overall homeownership rate was lower in 2020 than in 2000, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. But a look at homeownership rates by race and Hispanic origin reveals that Blacks lost ground between 2000 and 2020 while Asians, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites made gains... 

Homeownership rate by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2000 and 2020

	2020	2000	change
Total households	66.6%	67.4%	-0.8
Asians	60.3	52.8	7.5
Blacks	45.3	47.2	-1.9
Hispanics	50.1	46.3	3.8
Non-Hispanic whites	75.0	73.8	1.2

Black homeownership peaked during the housing bubble at 49.1 percent in 2004. The rate fell to a post-Great Recession low of 41.6 percent in 2016—a 7.5 percentage point loss in the aftermath of the Great Recession and much greater than the Great Recession losses experienced by Asians (-4.4), Hispanics (-2.1), or non-Hispanic whites (-4.1). 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey

A Decade of Tech Adoption

Pew Research Center has been tracking internet use and technology adoption for more than two decades. Its latest survey was fielded in February 2021. Here's a look at how much things have changed during the past 10 years...

Percent of adults who use, subscribe, or own the technology, 2011 and 2021

	2021	2011
Internet	93%	79%
Smartphone	85	35
Broadband at home	77	62
Desktop/laptop computer	77	75
Tablet computer	53	10

Use of the internet increased from an already high level in 2011 (79 percent) to nearly universal adoption in 2021 (93 percent). Broadband (high speed internet) appears to be headed in the same direction—especially if the American Jobs Plan becomes law, with funds for the expansion of broadband into rural America. 

Only 35 percent of adults owned a smartphone in 2011. Over the past decade, smartphone ownership soared, rising 50 percentage points to the 85 percent of today. 

Tablet ownership increased from just 10 percent in 2011 to the 51 percent majority of adults by 2016. Since then, however, ownership of tablet computers has stabilized. For desktop/laptop computers, little has changed over the entire decade.

The percentage of adults who now own a smartphone ranges from a high of 95 to 96 percent among those under age 50 to a low of 61 percent among people aged 65 or older. Use of the internet is close to 100 percent among adults under age 65, but is a smaller 75 percent among those aged 65-plus. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Mobile Fact Sheet, and Internet/Broadband Fact Sheet

Nearly One in Five Households Has Medical Debt

The most comprehensive look at the characteristics of Americans with medical debt is available from the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The 2018 SIPP included new questions about medical debt, asking respondents whether, in the past year, they had medical bills they were unable to pay in full. 

Overall, 19 percent of households had medical bills they were unable to pay in 2017, the Census Bureau reports. Here are the percentages by age group...

Percent of households with medical debt by age of householder

Total households: 19.0%

Under age 35: 19.4%

Aged 35 to 44: 22.4%

Aged 45 to 54: 22.9%

Aged 55 to 64: 22.0%

Aged 65-plus: 11.3%

Not surprisingly, households with at least one member who did not have health insurance during the year were most likely to have medical debt (31 percent). But even among households in which every household member had health insurance coverage all year, a substantial 16 percent had unpaid medical bills. The average amount of medical debt owed by households with such debt was a substantial $12,430. 

Source: Census Bureau, 19% of U.S. Households Could Not Afford to Pay for Medical Care Right Away

47% Have Received at Least One Dose of Vaccine

Nearly half of American adults have now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. The latest numbers were collected March 17-29. The 47 percent who reported having gotten a jab in the last two weeks of March was up substantially from the 34 percent who reported having done so in the first two weeks of the month.

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of March 17-29

Total 18-plus: 47%

Aged 18 to 24: 19%

Aged 25 to 39: 32%

Aged 40 to 54: 40%

Aged 55 to 64: 53%

Aged 65-plus: 81%

There is some erosion in the number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine. During this round of the survey, 39 million said no—down from 43 million in the first half of March. Non-Hispanic whites are the one segment of the population that has dug in its heals. The percentage of Hispanics and Blacks who say they will probably/definitely not get the vaccine declined during the month of March, while the percentage of non-Hispanic white naysayers was unchanged. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, March 17-29

The Growing Partisan Divide on Climate Change

Since 2016, the public's attitudes toward global warming have frozen, according to Gallup. But that doesn't mean things haven't changed. "This stability masks growing divergence between Republicans and Democrats," Gallup reports.

Overall, the 59 percent majority of Americans say the effects of global warming have already begun, identical to the share who said so in 2016. But Democrats are more likely and Republicans less likely to feel this way...

Percent who say the effects of global warming have already begun

	2020	2016	change
Total 18-plus	59%	59%	0
Democrats	82	77	+5
Republicans	29	40	-11

The gap between Democrats and Republicans on this issue grew from an already large 37 percentage points in 2016 to an enormous 53 percentage points in 2021. 

The pattern is the same when Americans are asked whether global warming will pose a serious threat in their lifetime. A growing share of Democrats say it will—67 percent in 2021, up from 58 percent in 2016. Only 11 percent of Republicans feel this way, down from 20 percent in 2016. 

Passing legislation to deal with climate change will be a tough sell, warns Gallup, because "Republicans signing on to such legislation are likely to face blowback from the Republican base."

Source: Gallup, Global Warming Attitudes Frozen Since 2016

Covid-19: Third Leading Cause of Death in 2021

Remember all the fanfare last week when the CDC announced that Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States in 2020? It took seven months for Covid to climb to the number-three spot on the top-10 cause of death list last year. 

This year, it took only three months. Covid-19 is already the third leading cause of death in 2021. More than 209,000 Americans have died from Covid through April 4 of this year. Let's hope vaccinations and mitigation will prevent Covid from rising even higher on the list in 2021. 

Source: CDC, Covid Data Tracker

Homeownership in 2020 Is below 2000

The 2000s have not been good for homeownership—so far, at least. The 66.6 percent homeownership rate of 2020 was below the 67.4 percent rate of 2000—not only nationally, but in almost every age group and in 30 of 50 states, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. 

We all know how this happened—the housing bubble, the collapse of the housing market, the Great Recession, and the long recovery. During the bubble, the nation's homeownership rate climbed to an all-time high of 69.0 percent in 2004. In the slow recovery from the Great Recession, the homeownership rate fell for years. It hit a post-Great Recession low of 63.4 percent in 2016. Since then, the rate has been inching back up each year.

Only two age groups had a higher homeownership rate in 2020 than they did in 2000—householders under age 25, and householders aged 75 or older. Every other age group had a lower homeownership rate, with the biggest declines (5 or more percentage points) occurring among householders ranging in age from 30 to 59.

Homeownership rate by age of householder, 2000 and 2020

	2020	2000	change
U.S. total	66.6%	67.4%	-0.8
Under age 25	25.7	21.7	4.0
Aged 25 to 29	35.3	38.1	-2.8
Aged 30 to 34	49.1	54.6	-5.5
Aged 35 to 39	60.0	65.0	-5.0
Aged 40 to 44	65.5	70.6	-5.1
Aged 45 to 49	68.8	74.7	-5.9
Aged 50 to 54	73.2	78.5	-5.3
Aged 55 to 59	74.9	80.4	-5.5
Aged 60 to 64	78.2	80.3	-2.1
Aged 65 to 69	79.6	83.0	-3.4
Aged 70 to 74	82.1	82.6	-0.5
Aged 75-plus	79.0	77.7	1.3

By state, the biggest decline in homeownership between 2000 and 2020 occurred in North Dakota (down 6.5 percentage points), followed by Pennsylvania (-4.8), and Wisconsin (-3.9). Among the 20 states and the District of Columbia with gains in homeownership between 2000 and 2020, Delaware saw the biggest increase (5.9 percentage points), following by New Hampshire (5.3) and Vermont (4.4).

It remains to be seen how the coronavirus pandemic will affect homeownership. The housing market appears to be hot right now, but that's largely because the pandemic has reduced the number of sellers, driving up prices. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey

11% of All Deaths in 2020 Due to Covid-19

It's official. Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States in 2020. The CDC's provisional count of deaths by cause in 2020 show Covid-19 behind only heart disease and cancer. Covid replaced suicide on the top-10 cause of death list, the CDC reports. Covid was the underlying or contributing cause of 377,833 deaths—11 percent of all deaths during the year. 

With Covid boosting deaths, the total number of deaths in 2020 exceeded the 2019 number by more than 500,000—an 18 percent increase. The overall age-adjusted mortality rate increased 16 percent. 

Total number of deaths

2020: 3,358,814 

2019: 2,854,838 

Change: +503,976

Age-adjusted mortality rate 

2020: 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population

2019: 715.2 deaths per 100,000 population

Source: CDC, Provisional Mortality Data—United States, 2020

Membership in Religious Congregations Falls below 50%

The percentage of Americans who belong to a religious congregation fell below 50 percent in 2020, according to a Gallup survey. This is the first time the figure has fallen below 50 percent since Gallup started asking the question in 1937. In 2020, only 47 percent of Americans aged 18 or older answered "yes" when asked, "Do you happen to be a member of a church, synagogue or mosque?"

Membership in religious congregations peaked in the years following World War II, when 76 percent of Americans aged 18 or older were members. The figure remained near the 70 percent level until the 2000s when it began a steady decline. 

Gallup notes that the decline "appears largely tied to population change, with those in older generations who were likely to be church members being replaced in the U.S. adult population with people in younger generations who are less likely to belong." Gallup has aggregated three of the most recent years of data to show membership by generation...

Member of a church, synagogue, or mosque, 2018–20 

Millennials: 36% 

Gen Gers: 50% 

Boomers: 58%

Older Americans: 66% 

Source: Gallup, U.S. Church Membership Falls below Majority for First Time

Most Young Adults Have "Mental Health Symptoms"

The mental health of millions of Americans has been adversely affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Young adults have been hit the hardest. This makes sense, since young adults are the ones whose lives have been disrupted the most. Their college classes are remote, their career prospects put on hold, their friends and potential romantic partners socially distanced. 

The Census Bureau has been tracking the mental health of the population in its biweekly Household Pulse Survey. A CDC analysis of the survey's mental health data reveals two worrisome facts: the mental health of Americans was not all that great in August, and between August and February it has gotten worse.

Here's what the Household Pulse Survey asks: How often in the past seven days have you felt 1) nervous, anxious, or on edge; 2) unable to stop or control worrying; 3) little interest or pleasure in doing things; 4) down, depressed, or hopeless? Respondents who reported experiencing one or more of these feelings on most of the past seven days were classified as having mental health symptoms. 

In August 2020, a substantial 36.4 percent of adults aged 18 or older were classified as having mental health symptoms, according to the CDC study. By February 2021, the figure had grown to 41.5 percent—a statistically significant increase. 

Symptoms of anxiety/depressive disorder during past 7 days, January 20—February 1, 2021

Total, aged 18-plus: 41.5% 

Aged 18 to 29: 57.0% 

Aged 20 to 39: 45.9% 

Aged 40 to 49: 41.1% 

Aged 50 to 59: 41.2% 

Aged 60 to 69: 33.4% 

Aged 70 to 79: 26.3% 

Aged 80-plus: 22.5% 

Mental health problems are particularly severe among 18-to-29-year-olds. Not only are most young adults experiencing mental health symptoms, but the 18-to-29 age group is also the one whose mental health is eroding the fastest. Between August 2020 and February 2021, the percentage of young adults with mental health symptoms grew by 8 percentage points. While the share of the population with mental health symptoms increased in every age group during those months, the rise was largest among 18-to-29-year-olds. It's well past time to open up vaccination sites to all adults, regardless of age, to give young people some hope. 

Source: CDC, Symptoms of Anxiety or Depressive Disorder and Use of Mental Health Care among Adults during the Covid-19 Pandemic—United States, August 2020—February 2021

Who's Online "Almost Constantly"

Are you online almost constantly? Every few years Pew Research Center asks Americans how frequently they go online. In 2021, nearly one-third (31 percent) told Pew they were online "almost constantly," up from 21 percent who reported this frequency in 2015. Here is the frequency with which Americans go online...

Frequency with which people aged 18-plus say they go online, 2021

Almost constantly: 31%

Several times a day: 48%

About once a day: 6%

Several times a week: 4%

Less often: 4%

Never: 7%

Not surprisingly, young adults aged 18 to 29 are most likely to be online "almost constantly," with 48 percent reporting this level of internet use. The "almost constantly" figure is 42 percent among 30-to-49-year-olds, 22 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds, and just 8 percent among people aged 65 or older. 

Source: Pew Research Center, About Three-in-Ten U.S. Adults Say They Are "Almost Constantly" Online

34% Have Received At Least One Dose of Vaccine

Vaccination rates continue to rise. As of mid-March, 34 percent of the population aged 18 or older had received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 25 percent in the previous survey fielded during the last two weeks of February.

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of March 3-15

Total 18-plus: 34%

Aged 18 to 24: 13%

Aged 25 to 39: 22%

Aged 40 to 54: 25%

Aged 55 to 64: 33%

Aged 65-plus: 70%

The number of people who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine fell slightly in this round of the survey—43 million are still saying no to the life-saving shots, down from 46 million at the end of February. Among the 20 million people who say they definitely will not get the vaccine, the single biggest reason—cited by 10 million—is that they don't trust the vaccine. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, March 3-15

Homeschooling Surges during Pandemic

Homeschooling has "exploded" during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report by the Census Bureau. And by homeschooling, the Census Bureau does not mean remote learning. Rather, it is homeschooling through "pandemic pods," stand-alone virtual schools, or homeschooling organizations. 

Before the pandemic, just 3.3 percent of households with school-aged children participated in homeschooling. By the spring of 2020 (April 23-May 5), the figure had grown to 5.4 percent, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. By the fall of 2020 (September 30-October 12), a substantial 11.1 percent reported homeschooling their children. 

No state had a homeschooling rate of 10 percent or higher in the spring of 2020. At that time, the homeschooling rate was highest in Alaska (9.6 percent of households with school-aged children), followed by Delaware (8.9 percent), California (8.6 percent), Oregon (8.3 percent), and Montana (8.2 percent). 

By the fall of 2020, the homeschooling rate had climbed above 10 percent in 32 states. 

10 states with highest homeschooling rate, Sept. 30-Oct. 12, 2020

Alaska: 27.5% 

Oklahoma: 20.1%

Montana: 18.3%

Florida: 18.1% 

Virginia: 16.9% 

West Virginia: 16.6%

Georgia: 16.0%

Mississippi: 15.0%

Louisiana: 14.5%

New Mexico: 14.3%

Illinois had the lowest homeschooling rate in the fall of 2020, with only 5.4 percent of households with school-aged children engaged in homeschooling.

Source: Census Bureau, Homeschooling on the Rise during Covid-19 Pandemic

One-Way Commute to Work Hit a Record High in 2019

The time it takes Americans to commute to work hit a record high in 2019, just before start of the coronavirus pandemic. The average one-way commute climbed to 27.6 minutes, up from 25.0 minutes in 2006. Since 2006, commuting time has increased in every year except 2009. Lest you think the pandemic is going to burst this bubble because so many are working from home, the data on commuting time is collected only from workers who do not work from home. 

Only 12 percent of workers report a one-way commute time of less than 10 minutes, down from 15 percent who said so in 2006. Another 10 percent of workers say their commute time is 60 minutes or more, up from 8 percent in 2006. 

The longest one-way commute is experienced by those who ride a long-distance train, commuter rail, or ferry—71.2 minutes. The shortest commute is for those who walk. Here are one-way commute times in 2019 by mode of transportation...

71.2 minutes: long-distance train, commuter rail, or ferry

48.8 minutes: subway or elevated rail

46.6 minutes: bus

27.6 minutes: average time

26.4 minutes: drove alone

21.2 minutes: bicycle

12.6 minutes: walk

Since 2006, the average length of the one-way commute has increased for workers in every type of geography—central cities, suburbs, and nonmetro areas. Commutes are shortest for those who live in the principal cities of micropolitan areas (18.3 minutes). Commutes are longest for those who live in the suburbs of metropolitan areas (29.1 minutes).

Among metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more, the share of workers whose commute is 60 minutes or more is greatest in the New York metro area (23 percent). The share of workers whose commute is less than 10 minutes is highest in Rochester, NY (15 percent). 

Source: Census Bureau, Travel Time to Work in the United States: 2019

Small Business Pessimism Drops Below 50%

For the first time in nine months, the percentage of small businesses expecting the worst from the coronavirus pandemic has fallen below 50 percent, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey. That's progress.

The weekly Small Business Pulse survey asks businesses how long they think it will take before their business operations return to normal. During the week of March 8-14, slightly fewer than half of the nation's small businesses (49.5 percent) said it would take more than six months for them to return to normal, or their operations would never return to normal, or their business had permanently closed. This measure of pessimism has exceeded 50 percent since the week of June 7-13. The drop below 50 percent, although tiny, suggests economic conditions may be changing for the better.

How much time until your business operations return to normal? (March 8-14)

  0.8% say one month or less

  4.5% say two to three months

16.6% say four to six months

40.1% say more than six months

  7.3% say they do not think their business will ever return to normal

  2.1% say their business has permanently closed

16.9% say their business has not been affected by the pandemic

11.7% say their business has returned to its normal level of operations

Before we start singing happy days are here again, it's worth noting that the plurality of businesses still think it will be more than six months before their operations return to normal. Also, the great majority of small businesses in accommodation and food services (69 percent), arts and entertainment (66 percent), and educational services (69 percent) remain pessimistic.

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey, March 8-14 

Only 34% of Young Adults Have Cable/Satellite TV

Most Americans still subscribe to cable or satellite television, according to a Pew Research Center survey, but the share has fallen steeply in recent years. Only 56 percent of adults watch television via cable or satellite today, down from 76 percent who did so in 2015. 

Percent who have cable or satellite TV in 2021 (and 2015)

Aged 18 to 29: 34% (65%)

Aged 30 to 49: 46% (73%)

Aged 50 to 64: 66% (80%)

Aged 65-plus: 81% (86%)

Source: Pew Research Center, Cable and Satellite TV Use Has Dropped Dramatically in the U.S. since 2015

Ten Largest Ancestries in the United States

Americans are a melting pot of ancestries, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS). Each year the survey asks a representative sample of Americans to identify their ancestry, with multiple responses allowed. Here are the ten largest ancestry groups, according to the 2019 ACS... 

10 largest ancestry groups, 2019

1. German: 40.3 million (12.3%)

2. Irish: 30.4 million (9.2%)

3. English: 23.6 million (7.2%)

4. Italian: 16.1 million (4.9%)

5. Polish: 9.0 million (2.7%)

6. French: 7.1 million (2.2%)

7. Scottish: 5.1 million (1.6%)

8. Norwegian: 4.3 million (1.3%)

9. Dutch: 3.6 million (1.1%)

10. Swedish, 3.5 million (1.1%)

The ancestry tables of the American Community Survey do not include several major groups such as Mexican or Chinese. That's because the information about those groups is collected separately through the survey's race and Hispanic origin questions rather than the ancestry question. Those who report being Hispanic or Asian, for example, are asked to identify their place of origin—such as Mexico or China. If these responses were included in the ancestry list, the top 10 would look very different. Mexican would be in 2nd place (37.2 million, 11.3%), Puerto Rican would be in 8th place (5.8 million, 1.8%), and Chinese would be in 9th place (5.2 million, 1.6%). Norwegian, Dutch, and Swedish would fall off the top-10 list.

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey

Generations Differ in Experience of Coronavirus

The great majority of Americans know someone who has had Covid-19. Fully 77 percent of adults personally know someone who has been sick with coronavirus, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll fielded March 3-8. The figure does not vary much by demographic characteristic except for one—generation. 

Counter to what you might expect, the oldest Americans are the ones least likely to know someone who has been sick with Covid-19. Just 54 percent of people aged 75 or older know someone who has come down with coronavirus. At the other extreme, 85 percent of Gen Xers know someone who got Covid—more than any other generation. 

The pattern is the same for coronavirus deaths. Overall, more than one-third of Americans (36 percent) personally know someone who died from coronavirus. The figure ranges from a low of 29 percent among the oldest adults to a high of 41 percent among Gen Xers. 

Know someone	sick with Covid	died of Covid
Total adults (18-plus)	77%	36%
Gen Z/Millennials (18-39)	80	33
Generation X (40-55)	85	41
Baby Boomers (56-74)	75	39
Silent Generation (75-plus)	54	29

Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results, The Biden Administration and Covid-19

Mushrooming Trouble

This is no joke, according to the CDC. Each year, 7,500 mushroom incidents are reported to poison control centers in the United States. To get a better handle on the problem, the CDC analyzed data on emergency department visits and hospitalizations due to poisonous mushrooms. Here are some of the findings...

• In 2016, there were 1,328 emergency department visits and 100 hospitalizations associated with "accidental poisonous mushroom ingestion." 
• 41% of those who visited an emergency department after ingesting poisonous mushrooms were children under the age of 18. 
• Males accounted for 63% of those who visited an emergency department after ingesting poisonous mushrooms. 
• The 37% plurality of emergency department visits occurred in the West.
• Among those diagnosed with ingesting poisonous mushrooms during 2016–18, 36% had gastrointestinal symptoms, 18% neurological/behavioral symptoms, and 17% cardiac symptoms.
• 8% of those diagnosed with ingesting poisonous mushrooms were involved with hallucinogenic drug use.

"Given the potential severity and preventable nature of most poisonous mushroom ingestions, wild mushrooms should not be consumed unless identified by an expert," the CDC concludes.

Source: CDC, Health Care Utilization and Outcomes Associated with Accidental Poisonous Mushroom Ingestions—United States, 2016–2018

First Time Ever: Life Expectancy by State

For the first time ever, the National Center for Health Statistics has released a report estimating life expectancy by state. The estimates are for 2018, with plans to produce the state estimates annually. 

The report reveals big differences by state in life expectancy at birth and at age 65. Hawaii is number one on both measures, with a life expectancy at birth of 81.0 years and at age 65 of 21.1 years. Life expectancy at birth bottoms out in West Virginia, at 74.4 years. Kentucky is last among the states in life expectancy at age 65—just 17.5 years. Here are the top and bottom states for life expectancy at birth...

Top 10		Bottom 10
1. Hawaii	81.0	42. Missouri	76.6
2. California	80.8	43. South Carolina	76.5
3. New York	80.5	44. Arkansas	75.6
4. Minnesota	80.5	45. Oklahoma	75.6
5. Connecticut	80.4	46. Louisiana	75.6
6. Massachusetts	80.1	47. Tennessee	75.5
7. Washington	80.0	48. Kentucky	75.3
8. Colorado	80.0	49. Alabama	75.1
9. New Jersey	79.8	50. Mississippi	74.6
10. Rhode Island	79.8	51. West Virginia	74.4

The life expectancy of males at birth is highest in California, at 78.4 years. Female life expectancy at birth is highest in Hawaii, at 84.0 years. For both males and females, life expectancy at birth is lowest in West Virginia—71.7 and 77.3 years, respectively.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. State Life Tables, 2018 (PDF)

25% Have Received at Least One Dose of Vaccine

Twenty-five percent of Americans aged 18 or older had received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine as of the end of February, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. This figure is up from 18 percent in the prior survey, which was fielded during the first two weeks of February. Among people aged 65 or older, the 55 percent majority have now received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. Here are vaccination rates by age group...

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine, February 17-March 1

Total 18-plus: 25%

Aged 18 to 24: 10%

Aged 25 to 39: 16%

Aged 40 to 54: 19%

Aged 55 to 64: 21%

Aged 65-plus: 55%

The number of people who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine was basically unchanged in this round of the survey, with 46 million saying no to the life-saving shots. 

Interestingly, those who have no intention of getting the vaccine are the ones most likely to be out and about in public, according to a Gallup survey. It's almost as if the naysayers think the coronavirus pandemic is a hoax. Among those who do not plan to get vaccinated, reports Gallup, only 40 percent have avoided going to events with large crowds in the past seven days. Among those who are fully vaccinated, more than twice as many (82 percent) have avoided large crowds. Just 26 percent of those who do not plan to get the vaccine have avoided small gatherings of people compared with 59 percent of the fully vaccinated. A substantial 43 percent of those who do not plan to get the vaccine say they are "not at all" worried about getting Covid-19. Among the fully vaccinated, just 22 percent are so complacent.  

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, February 17-March 1

Homeownership by Age in 2020

Take these numbers with a grain of salt. The homeownership rate climbed to 66.6 percent in 2020—two whole percentage points above the 64.6 percent of 2019, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). The homeownership rate increased in every age group. 

BUT, the 2020 homeownership rates are distorted by the coronavirus pandemic. The HVS's in-person interviews were suspended for a good portion of the year, and survey response rates plummeted—a bigger plunge for some groups than for others. The homeownership rates of 2020 were likely boosted by the presumed higher response rates of homeowners than renters during the year. In its HVS Covid-19 impact statement, the Census Bureau cautions against comparing second, third, and fourth quarter 2020 data with previous quarters. The same applies to the 2020 annual statistics, which were released today. 

Nevertheless, a comparison of 2020 homeownership rates with the rates in 2004 provides plenty of food for thought. Why 2004? That was the year when the overall homeownership rate in the United States peaked at 69.0 percent. Sixteen years later, we are still far below that peak—even if you accept 2020's homeownership rates at face value. 

Homeownership rate by age of householder, 2004 and 2020 and percentage point change

	2020	2004	change
Total households	66.6%	69.0%	-2.4
Under age 25	25.7	25.2	0.5
Aged 25 to 29	35.3	40.2	-4.9
Aged 30 to 34	49.1	57.4	-8.3
Aged 35 to 39	60.0	66.2	-6.2
Aged 40 to 44	65.5	71.9	-6.4
Aged 45 to 49	68.8	76.3	-7.5
Aged 50 to 54	73.2	78.2	-5.0
Aged 55 to 59	74.9	81.2	-6.3
Aged 60 to 64	78.2	82.4	-4.2
Aged 65-plus	80.0	81.1	-1.1

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Annual Statistics: 2020

First Class Mail Volume Down 49%

The internet has not been kind to the United States Postal Service. First-class mail is just a shadow of its former self. 

First-class mail volume peaked in 2001 at 104 billion pieces, according to the USPS. By 2020, volume had fallen to just 53 billion—a 49 percent decline. Most of the decline occurred in the five years following the introduction of the smartphone in 2007. 

First-class mail volume (in billions of pieces)

2020: 52.6

2015: 62.6

2012: 68.7

2011: 72.5

2010: 77.6

2009: 82.7

2008: 90.7 

2007: 96.3

2001: 103.7 (peak)

Source: United States Postal Service, First-Class Mail Volume Since 1926

Who Will "Definitely Not" Get the Covid-19 Vaccine?

A stubborn 15 percent of Americans aged 18 or older say they will "definitely not" get the Covid vaccine, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey fielded February 15-23. Another 7 percent say they will only get the vaccine "if required for work, school, or other activities." Here's a look at the naysayers...

Percent who say they will "definitely not" get the Covid vaccine

15% of all adults

28% of Republicans

  2% of Democrats

24% of rural residents

14% of suburban residents

13% of urban residents

17% of adults without a college degree

11% of college graduates

15% of non-Hispanic whites

14% of Blacks

12% of Hispanics

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: February 2021

Facts about the Minimum Wage in 2020

The federal minimum wage is $7.25/hour, a level unchanged since 2009.   

Most states now have a minimum wage higher than the federal minimum. 

Among all workers paid by the hour, 1.5 percent earned the minimum or less—1.1 million workers in 2020. 

Among workers paid minimum wage or less, 43 percent are in the prime working age group of 25 to 54. 

Among workers paid the minimum wage or less, 85 percent have a high school diploma or more education. 

Among workers paid the minimum wage or less, 60 percent work in the leisure and hospitality industries. Among workers paid by the hour in the leisure and hospitality industries, 8 percent earn the minimum wage or less. 

Among workers paid the minimum wage or less, 54 percent work in food preparation and serving occupations. Among workers paid by the hour in food preparation and serving occupations, 11 percent earn the minimum wage or less. 

By state, workers who are paid by the hour are most likely to earn minimum wage or less in South Carolina (4.4 percent), Louisiana (3.4 percent), Mississippi (2.8 percent), Virginia (2.7 percent), and Alabama (2.5 percent), 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers, 2020

Nearly 1 Million Same-Sex Couple Households

There were 980,000 same-sex couple households in the United States in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The 58 percent majority of these households are married couples, and 42 percent are unmarried partners. 

By state, North Dakota has the smallest percentage of same-sex couple households as a share of all coupled households (0.5 percent). The District of Columbia has the largest percentage (7.1 percent). 

By metropolitan area, San Francisco is number one. In the San Francisco metro area, 2.8 percent of all coupled households are same-sex couples. The other metros on the top-10 list are Portland, Seattle, Orlando, Austin, Miami, Boston, Denver, Phoenix, and Baltimore. 

These percentages will grow in the years ahead as more Americans feel free to identify as LGBT because of changing attitudes. According to a recent Gallup survey, 5.6 percent of all Americans aged 18 or older identified as LGBT in 2020. This is up from 3.9 percent in 2015. Self-identification as LGBT increases with each succeeding younger generation. Among Baby Boomers, only 2.0 percent identify as LGBT. The figure is 3.8 percent among Gen Xers, 9.1 percent among Millennials, and 15.9 percent among Gen Z.

Source: Census Bureau, Same-Sex Couple Households: 2019

Vaccination Rates by Age, February 3-14

The vaccination rate is slowly rising. As of mid-February, 18 percent of Americans aged 18 or older had received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 13 percent in the prior survey, which was fielded during the last two weeks of January. Here are vaccination rates by age group...

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine, February 3-14

Total 18-plus: 18%

Aged 18 to 24: 6%

Aged 25 to 39: 14%

Aged 40 to 54: 15%

Aged 55 to 64: 16%

Aged 65-plus: 35%

How about those anti-vaxers? The number of people who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine is shrinking. There were 53 million naysayers (21 percent of the population aged 18-plus) the first time this question was asked during the weeks of January 6-18. The number fell to 45 million (18 percent) in the February 3-14 time period. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, February 3-14

Less Educated Counties are Falling Behind

The U.S. population is getting better educated. But only in some places and not in others. Among the nation's 3,138 counties, the 58 percent majority are becoming better educated. The remaining 42 percent are educationally stagnant—they have not experienced a statistically significant increase in educational attainment over the past decade, according to a Census Bureau analysis of five-year American Community Survey data from 2005–09 to 2015–19.  

Forty-two percent is a lot of counties—more than 1,000. The bad news doesn't stop there. A disproportionate share of the stagnant counties were the least educated to begin with. This means there is a growing gap between counties not only in educational attainment, but also in the economic opportunities that accrue to educated populations. 

To do its analysis, the Census Bureau divided counties into two educational attainment groups. The measure of educational attainment was the percentage of county residents aged 25 or older with a bachelor's degree in 2005–09. For all counties at the time, 18.7 percent of residents aged 25 or older had a bachelor's degree. One educational attainment group consisted of all counties that fell below this threshold. The other group was all counties above this threshold. Now for the analysis: among the counties that fell below this threshold in 2005–09, only 49.8 percent experienced an increase in educational attainment by 2015–19. Among the counties that were above this threshold in 2005–09, a much larger 78.6 percent experienced an increase in educational attainment during the next 10 years. 

This is not good news for stagnant counties. It means the socioeconomic gap between counties is growing, the rural-urban divide is widening, and struggling counties will find economic prosperity even more elusive. 

The coronavirus pandemic will only exacerbate these problems. Recently released Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the labor force impact of the pandemic show jobs disappearing for less-educated Americans. The number of jobs available for those without a high school diploma is projected to drop 2.3 percent between 2019 and 2029 because of the pandemic, according to a New York Times analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Covid-impact projections. Pre-Covid, these jobs had been projected to grow. The number of jobs available to those with a high school diploma and no further education will inch up by only 0.1 percent in the decade ahead, far less growth than foreseen pre-Covid. At the other extreme, Covid will boost job growth for the better educated. For those with a bachelor's degree, jobs will increase 6.7 percent—a bit more than forecast pre-Covid. Similarly, the job market for people with a graduate degree will expand 9.7 percent during the decade, also above the pre-Covid forecast. 

All this means we need to prepare for more friction, more turmoil—political and otherwise—between educationally stagnant and educationally advancing counties as these trends unfold.

Source: Census Bureau, Bachelor's Degree Attainment in the United States: 2005 to 2019

Boomers Still Have A Grip on Congress

The Baby-Boom generation dominates both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate. According to an analysis of the 117th Congress by Pew Research Center, Boomers account for the 53 percent majority of the House and for an even larger 68 percent of the Senate...

House: number (and percent) of members of the 117th Congress by generation

Millennials: 31 (7%)

Gen Xers: 144 (33%)

Boomers: 230 (53%)

Silent: 27 (6%) 

Senate: number (and percent) of members of the 117th Congress by generation

Millennials: 1 (1%)

Gen Xers: 20 (20%)

Boomers: 68 (68%)

Silent: 11 (11%) 

Note: Pew defines Millennials as those born from 1981 to 1996; Gen X from 1965 to 1980; Boomers from 1946 to 1964; Silent generation from 1928 to 1945.

The ages of the 117th Congress range from a youthful 25.5 years to an ancient 87.7 years. The median age of the House is 58.9. The median age of the Senate is 64.8. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Boomers, Silents Still Have Most Seats in Congress, though Number of Millennials, Gen Xers Is Up Slightly

What Covid Will Do to Jobs

This has been a helluva year for those who work with demographic and economic statistics. Everything is topsy turvy. The usually dependable government data released over the past 12 months—household income and spending data, time use estimates, and net worth assessments—was either collected before the pandemic, making the findings irrelevant, or collected during the pandemic and tainted by survey anomalies such as low response rates. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections for 2019-29, released last September, are no exception. The BLS based the projections on pre-Covid labor force and economic assumptions. Consequently, they raise more questions than they answer. How would Covid impact the labor force in the decade ahead? How would Covid change industries and occupations?

Now the BLS has addressed some of those questions. In a Monthly Labor Review article, BLS economists estimate the impact of the pandemic on industries, occupations, and employment. The analysis compares the baseline projections for the next 10 years, released in September, with two alternate scenarios—a moderate Covid impact and a severe Covid impact. With a few exceptions, the BLS economists show that the biggest Covid impacts will be strengthening ongoing trends rather than reversing them. 

Cashiers are one example. In the baseline series, this occupation was projected to be the one losing the largest number of jobs between 2019 and 2029—a loss of 265,000. Because of Covid, the job losses will be even greater. In the moderate-impact scenario, the number of people employed as cashiers will fall by 511,000 between 2019 and 2029. In the severe-impact scenario, the number will fall by 714,500. "Checkout automation is expected to accelerate because of the pandemic," say the BLS economists. 

Information security analysts are at the other extreme. In the baseline projections, this occupation ranked as one of the 10 fastest growing, with a 31 percent increase in jobs between 2019 and 2029. Because of Covid, these jobs will increase even faster—up 42 to 43 percent in the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively. "The increase in telework and robust demand for work-related digital security are expected to make these analysts the fourth-fastest growing occupation in either alternate scenario," the BLS economists report.

Because of the pandemic, jobs in medical research also are projected to grow rapidly in the decade ahead. "Both the public and private sectors will likely pay greater attention to pandemic preparedness going forward," the study's authors report. This explains why the number of epidemiologists, which had been projected to increase by a modest 5 percent in the baseline projections, is projected to expand by a much larger 31 percent because of Covid.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Employment Projections in a Pandemic Environment

1.0 Year Decline in Life Expectancy, January-June 2020

Yep, it happened. As projected by a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a 1.0 year decline in life expectancy in the first six months of 2020. One year may not sound like a lot, but it is the biggest decline since World War II, the New York Times reports.

Life expectancy at birth in the United States fell to 77.8 years in the first half of 2020—one full year below the 78.8 year life expectancy of 2019, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Here are the declines in life expectancy at birth by sex, race, and Hispanic origin...

Decline in life expectancy at birth, January–June 2020 versus 2019

Black males: -3.0 years

Hispanic males: -2.4 years

Black females: -2.3 years

Hispanic females: -1.1 years

Non-Hispanic white males: -0.8 years

Non-Hispanic white females: -0.7 years

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for January through June, 2020 (PDF)

62% of Adults Are Cellphone Only

When Steve Jobs unveiled the first Apple iPhone on January 29, 2007, only 13 percent of adults lived in a "wireless-only" household—meaning a household with only cellphones and no landline phone. Today, wireless-only households are by far the norm. In January-June 2020, the 62 percent majority of adults aged 18 or older lived in a household with cellphones and no landline phone, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Here are the percentages of adults who lived in a wireless-only household in January-June 2020 (versus 2007)...

Percent of adults in a cellphone-only household, January-June 2020 (and January-June 2007)

	2020	2007
Total, 18-plus	61.8%	12.6%
Aged 18 to 24	72.6	27.9
Aged 25 to 29	80.4	30.6
Aged 30 to 34	83.0	12.6*
Aged 35 to 44	74.5	12.6*
Aged 45 to 64	58.5	7.1
Aged 65-plus	35.0	2.0

* Age group in 2007 was 30-44. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June 2020 (PDF)

Urban Exodus? Not So Fast

Did the coronavirus pandemic really cause Americans to flee the cities? This notion has been bandied about by the media for months, but the evidence has been more anecdotal than factual. Now we have the facts, thanks to Stephan D. Whitaker, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 

Whitaker analyzed data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel. The addresses of borrowers in the Equifax data are updated monthly and are as geographically detailed as census tracts. This kind of detail allowed Whitaker to examine migration into and out of urban neighborhoods, which he defined as census tracts in metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more and a population density of at least 7,000 people per square mile or most of the housing in the tract was built before World War II. He studied migration flows into and out of urban neighborhoods from March through September 2020 and compared them to migration flows during the same months in 2017, 2018 and 2019. 

So, was migration out of urban neighborhoods greater in 2020 than in the earlier years? Yes. Out-migration from urban neighborhoods averaged 276,000 per month from March through September 2020—or 10,000 more out-migrants per month in 2020 than in 2017–19. But that's not the whole story. In fact, it's not even the bigger story. This is the bigger story: the number of people moving into urban neighborhoods decreased more than the the number of people moving out of urban neighborhoods increased. There were an average of 18,000 fewer in-migrants to urban neighborhoods per month in 2020 than in the earlier years compared with the 10,000 per month increase in out-migrants.  

"The estimates presented here strongly suggest that migration flows were unfavorable for urban neighborhoods during 2020," concludes Whitaker. But use of the term "exodus" to describe the change is not accurate, he says. Rather than an exodus out of urban neighborhoods, the bigger migration story of 2020 was the decline in the number of migrants moving into urban neighborhoods. "What is certain is that hundreds of thousands of people who would have moved into an urban neighborhood in a typical year were unwilling or unable to do so in 2020."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Did the Covid-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus?

21 Million Say No to Covid Vaccine

The percentage of the population that has received at least one shot of a Covid vaccine climbed from 8 percent in mid-January to 13 percent in late January, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Among people aged 65 or older, 21 percent have received at least one shot of the vaccine. 

There's still a long way to go. Fully 215 million American aged 18-plus have not yet received even one shot of a vaccine. Among them, the majority says it "will definitely" get a vaccine...

Attitudes toward getting a Covid vaccine among those who have not already received at least one dose (January 20-February 1, 2021)

55% definitely will get a vaccine

23% probably will get a vaccine

13% probably will not get a vaccine

10% definitely will not get a vaccine

More than 21 million Americans say they definitely will not get a Covid vaccine. Another 27 million say they probably will not get a vaccine. That's nearly one in four (23 percent) of all those who have not yet received at least one dose of the vaccine and nearly one in five (19 percent) of the total population aged 18 or older. Among those who say they definitely will not get a vaccine, the single biggest reason is concern about side effects. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, January 20–February 1, 2021

The Demographics of the Viral Stock Frenzy

How many Americans bought GameStop or other viral stock during the speculative trading frenzy in January? According to a Yahoo Finance-Harris Poll, an astonishing 28 percent of Americans participated. 

Though GameStop was the poster child of the frenzy, it was not the most popular stock purchase. The number-one spot belonged to AMC Entertainment. Among those who purchased viral stock in January, 35 percent purchased AMC, 33 percent bought GameStop, and 23 percent BlackBerry. The 53 percent majority of those who bought viral stock invested $250 or less. 

The demographics of the players are what you might suspect. Men were much more likely than women to have purchased viral stocks in January—40 percent of men did so versus 16 percent of women. Younger adults were more likely to participate than older Americans. Forty percent of 18-to-44-year-olds bought viral stock in January compared with 17 percent of those aged 45 or older.

Source: The Harris Poll, Going Viral: "Meme Stocks" Win Over 1 in 4 Americans

College Graduates 10 Years Later

Forty percent of Millennials have a bachelor's degree, making them the best-educated generation. They are paying a steep price for those credentials. According to a National Center for Education Statistics' longitudinal survey, nearly three out of four Millennials who earned a bachelor's degree went into debt to pay for their education.  

The NCES's Baccalaureate and Beyond longitudinal survey has been tracking the economic wellbeing of 2007–2008 bachelor's degree recipients. A recent NCES report examines the status of these graduates in 2018, a decade after they earned their degree. Much of the news is good. Sixty-three percent of the graduates owned a home in 2018, for example, compared with only 48 percent of the 30-to-34 age group as a whole (two-thirds of the 2007–08 cohort was under age 35). The median earnings of those who worked full-time amounted to $67,500 compared with $52,000 for all 30-to-34-year-olds with full-time jobs. 

Not all the news is good, however. A substantial 20 percent of 2007–08 college graduates have a negative net worth—meaning their debts exceed their assets, the NCES reports. Among Black college graduates, 37 percent have a negative net worth. Student loans are the reason. Fully 72 percent of the 2007–08 cohort borrowed to pay for their education, owing a cumulative median of $32,116. Among Black graduates, 86 percent borrowed and they owe a larger $51,395. Most of the 2007–08 cohort (55 percent) is still repaying those loans, with an average monthly payment of $427. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Baccalaureate and Beyond: First Look at the 2018 Employment and Educational Experiences of 2007–08 College Graduates

The Demographics of the Insurrection

Who attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6? Knowing who they are is just as important as knowing their ideology and beliefs, according to University of Chicago political scientists Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby. The two researchers analyzed the demographics of 193 individuals arrested for entering the U.S. Capitol or breaking into the Capitol grounds on January 6. 

Characteristics of those arrested on January 6

94% white

86% male

32% aged 35 to 44

24% aged 45 to 54

12% aged 55-plus

9% unemployed

27% white-collar workers

13% business owners

10% members of militia/violent right-wing group

The characteristics of those arrested on January 6 differ in important ways from those arrested for right-wing violence in prior years, say Pape and Ruby. They are older, less likely to be unemployed, and also less likely to be affiliated with right-wing groups. The researchers find these differences troubling because "Pro-Trump activists joined with the far right to form a new kind of violent mass movement." 

All the ingredients are there for this violent mass movement to grow, Pape and Ruby warn. The ingredients are 1) A leader (Trump) willing to engage in extra-legal activity; 2) Grievances perceived by large numbers of people (the "stolen" election); and 3) A deadly focal point event (January 6). 

"This is not about a few hundred arrests," the researchers conclude. "We need to understand who we are dealing with in the new movement. Targeting pre-2021 far-right organizations will not solve the problem."

Source: University of Chicago, Chicago Project on Security & Threats, The Face of American Insurrection—Right-Wing Organizations Evolving into a Violent Mass Movement

Kind of a Drag

Despite being more educated than any other generation, Millennials are having a tough time. They are highly educated but burdened by student debt. They graduated from college into the difficult job market following the Great Recession. Because of their financial hardships, they delayed marriage and homeownership. Consequently, Millennials have been behind older generations in their accumulation of wealth.  

The Center for Retirement Research (CRR) examines the economic status of Millennials using data from the  Federal Reserve Board's 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances. The CRR researchers, Anqi Chen and Alicia H. Munnell, compare the economic status of Millennials aged 28 to 38 in 2019 with Boomers and Gen Xers when they were that age. They find that older Millennials (born 1981-91) have caught up to late Boomers (1954-64) and Gen Xers (1969-79) in their income, marriage rate, homeownership, and labor force participation. But because of student loan debt, Millennial wealth still lags that of Boomers and Gen Xers. 

Among Millennial householders aged 34 to 38, for example, net worth is just 70 percent of their income. This is less than the 82 percent ratio for Boomers and far below the 110 percent ratio for Gen Xers at the same age. When the researchers took a look at what was holding Millennials back, the culprit turns out to be student loans. Among Millennials aged 28 to 38, fully 40 percent have student loan debt versus just 28 percent of Gen Xers and 17 percent of Boomers at that age. 

"Excluding student loans, the median net wealth-to-income ratio for the leading edge of the Millennial generation looks very similar to that for previous cohorts," Chen and Munnell report. Student debt, they conclude, is a constant drag on the Millennial balance sheet.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Millennials' Readiness for Retirement—A 2019 Update

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2020: 49.2%

Homeownership rates in the 4th quarter of 2020 have fallen from the stratospheric heights reached in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) and consequently distorted homeownership trends. The 79 percent response rate in the 4th quarter was still below the 83 percent average, reports the Census Bureau. But it was well above the 2nd and 3rd quarter response rates of 70 and 71 percent, respectively. 

It will take time before there is certainty that the HVS homeownership statistics once again reflect reality. But the 4th quarter numbers appear to be closing in on reality. The overall homeownership rate in the 4th quarter of 2020 was 65.8 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than the 65.1 percent homeownership rate in the 4th quarter of 2019. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) has been surprisingly stable over the four quarters of 2020 (48.0, 49.1, 50.1, and 49.2). Note that the 50.1 percent homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds in the 3rd quarter of 2020 was the first time since 2011 that their rate has exceeded 50 percent. Will the age group firmly reclaim its position as the nation's first-time homebuyers in 2021? We'll have to wait and see. 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Prescription Meds for Mental Health

Twenty-one percent of Americans aged 18 or older have taken a prescription medication in the past four weeks to help with their mental health, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Ten percent say they have received counseling from a mental health professional in the past four weeks, and another 11 percent say they needed counseling but did not get it. 

Women are far more likely than men to be on medication for mental health issues—26 percent of women reported taking medication in the past four weeks versus 15 percent of men. People who live alone are more likely to be taking medication (25 percent) than those who live with others. Interestingly, the use of medication falls with household income—from 25 percent of those with household incomes below $25,000 to just 15 percent of those with household incomes of $200,000 or more. 

People who have had to borrow money from friends or family in the past 7 days to make ends meet are the ones most likely to be taking prescription medication for mental health. Fully 29 percent of these borrowers are on medication.

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, January 6-18 

What's the Most Important Thing Children Should Learn?

What is the single most important thing children should learn to prepare them for life? The largest share of Americans (42 percent) say it is most important for children to learn to think for themselves, according to the General Social Survey (GSS). Hard work ranks second, helping others is third, obedience fourth, and popularity fifth.   

Percent who say each characteristic is the most important thing children should learn, 2018 (and 1986)

Think for self: 41.6% (51.2%)

Work hard: 27.6% (11.2%)

Help others: 20.7% (13.7%)

Obedience: 9.9% (23.4%)

Popularity: 0.2% (0.5%)

Obedience has fallen in importance over the decades, as discussed in this recent post (How Many Americans Are Receptive to Fascism?) But so has thinking for oneself. More than half the public named thinking for oneself as the most important thing children should learn when the GSS first asked this question in 1986. Over the past three decades, the percentage who rate thinking for oneself as number-one has fallen by nearly 10 percentage points. Working hard and helping others have taken up the slack. The percentage who think the most important thing for children to learn is to work hard has grown by 16 percentage points since 1986, and helping others has gained 7 percentage points. The one thing that hasn't changed over the decades is the low rating for popularity. Fewer than 1 percent believe popularity is the number-one lesson children need to learn.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey