Find the Recreation Hot Spots

Where are the nation's recreation hot spots and retirement destinations? Which local economies are dependent on manufacturing, mining, farming, or federal and state government employment? The USDA's Economic Research Service has new maps and stats that reveal the economic and social characteristics of the nation's 3,000-plus counties.

"The 2015 County Typology Codes classify all U.S. counties according to six mutually exclusive categories of economic dependence and six overlapping categories of policy-relevant themes," explains the ERS. The results are downloadable as an Excel spreadsheet.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2015 County Typology Codes

What Americans Think about "Medicare-for-All"

Half of Americans are in favor of guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Americans would get their insurance through a single government health plan, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey. But support varies greatly by age...

Percent somewhat or strongly in favor of universal coverage
Aged 18 to 29: 65%
Aged 30 to 49: 55%
Aged 50 to 64: 41%
Aged 65-plus: 36%

Interestingly, the level of public support depends on the term used to describe universal coverage. Fully 63 percent of Americans have a somewhat or very positive reaction to the term "Medicare-for-all," and 57 percent feel positive about the term "guaranteed universal health coverage." But support falls to 44 percent if the term "single-payer health insurance system" is used, and just 38 percent feel positive about "socialized medicine."

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: February 2016

Top 10 Occupations: Generation X

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Gen Xers (aged 39 to 50 in 2015) ...

Generation X share of workers (average = 26%)
1. Supervisors of police and detectives: 44.7%
2. Brokerage clerks: 40.0%
3. Financial examiners: 40.0%
4. Locomotive engineers: 39.6%
5. Computer network architects: 38.4%
6. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers: 38.1%
7. Computer and information systems managers: 38.1%
8. Supervisors of correctional officers: 38.1%
9. Training and development mangers: 38.0%
10. Human resources managers: 37.0%

Click here for the top 10 occupations among Boomers.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Top 10 Occupations: Boomers

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Boomers (aged 51 to 69 in 2015)...

Baby Boom share of workers (average = 31%)
1. Buyers and purchasing agents, farm products: 64.0%
2. Judges and magistrates: 62.4%
3. Crossing guards: 62.1%
4. Print binding and finishing workers: 61.0%
5. Farmers and ranchers: 59.7%
6. Tailors and dressmakers: 58.1%
7. Parking enforcement workers: 58.0%
8. Postmasters and mail superintendents: 57.5%
9. Furniture finishers: 56.0%
10. Tool and die makers: 55.3%

Stay tuned for the top 10 occupations among Gen Xers, Millennials, and the iGeneration.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Daily Consumption of Sugary Drinks

How many Americans aged 18 or older drink at least one sugar-sweetened beverage every day? According to the CDC, a substantial 29 percent. The CDC defines sugar-sweetened beverages as regular sodas, fruit drinks, sweet tea, and sports or energy drinks. Excluded from the measure are diet sodas and fruit juice...

• By state: daily consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is highest in Mississippi (47.5 percent of adults) and lowest in Vermont (18.0 percent). 
• By age: daily consumption is greatest among 18-to-24-year-olds (43.3 percent) and lowest among people aged 55 or older (19.1 percent). 
• By race and Hispanic origin: daily consumption is highest among Blacks (39.9 percent) and Hispanics (36.3 percent) and lowest among "other, non-Hispanics" (21.2 percent), a segment dominated by Asians. 
• By education: only 15.5 percent of college graduates drink sugar-sweetened beverages every day versus 28.5 percent of those with some college, 35.8 percent of high school graduates, and 42.4 percent of adults without a high school diploma.

Source: CDC, Prevalence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intake among Adults—23 States and the District of Columbia, 2013

Financial Stability, Upward Mobility, Depend on Family Help

In a pinch, families come to the rescue. In the past year, 26 percent of American households provided financial assistance to family (or friends) who needed help with day-to-day expenses, according to a Pew Charitable Trusts study. Analyzing data from its Survey of American Family Finances, Pew reports that the helping households provided a median of $1,000 in assistance.

Some families do much more, providing their adult children with what Pew call "mobility-enhancing" funds: money for higher education and homeownership. According to Pew's analysis of the 2013 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 10 percent of adult children received financial help from their parents for home purchasing, and 31 percent received funds for higher education. Of course the wealthiest families are most likely to provide these funds. Among adults raised in the wealthiest one-third of families, 52 percent received money from their parents for higher education and 61 percent received money for home purchasing. Among those in the least wealthy one-third, the comparable figures are just 14 and 6 percent.

"The safety net provided to households by friends and relatives," says Pew, "is a hidden dimension of the financial system and one that may reinforce existing advantages and disadvantages in family finances."

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, Extended Family Support and Household Balance Sheets 

2016 Voters by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin

Older non-Hispanic Whites (aged 45 or older) will account for only 47 percent of voters in the 2016 presidential election, according to a Demo Memo analysis of Census Bureau data. This is well below their 55 percent share of voters in the 2014 mid-term election and slightly below their 48 percent share of voters in the 2012 presidential election.

The 47 percent figure is based on the Census Bureau's 2016 population projections by age, race, and Hispanic origin. The citizenship and voting rates of 2012 were applied to each racial and ethnic group, and those rates were applied to non-Hispanic Whites by age. The result is the projected demographics of voters in 2016...

Projected voters in 2016 election by race and Hispanic origin
Total voters: 141 million
Non-Hispanic Whites: 101 million (72% of voters)
Blacks: 19 million (14% of voters)
Hispanics: 13 million (9% of voters)
Asians: 5 million (3% of voters)
Other races: 3 million (2% of voters)

Projected voters in 2016 election by age, race, and Hispanic origin
Total voters: 141 million
Minorities: 40 million (28% of voters)
Non-Hispanic Whites under age 45: 35 million (25% of voters)
Non-Hispanic Whites aged 45 or older: 67 million (47% of voters)

Non-Hispanic Whites under age 45 and Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities are likely to account for the 53 percent majority of voters in the 2016 presidential election.

Source: Demo Memo analysis based on the Census Bureau's Population Projections and Voting and Registration

Time Spent in Health-Related Self Care

Many Americans have health needs that require daily attention. The American Time Use Survey measures this time, calling it "health-related self care," and documents its growing importance in daily life as people age. Health-related self care includes activities such as taking medicine or vitamins; resting because of an illness or injury; giving oneself a shot; testing blood sugar levels; taking insulin; applying ointment; putting ice on an injury; changing oxygen; doing childbirth, stress management, or therapeutic exercises; and even meditating (not religious).

On an average day, 7 percent of people aged 15 or older engage in health-related self care as a primary activity. Among people aged 75 or older, the proportion is one in five...

Percent participating in health-related self care on an average day
Aged 15 to 19: 1%
Aged 20 to 24: 2%
Aged 25 to 34: 2%
Aged 35 to 44: 3%
Aged 45 to 54: 8%
Aged 55 to 64: 9%
Aged 65 to 74: 12%
Aged 75-plus: 21%

The time devoted to health-related self care is not trivial. Those who engage in health-related self care on an average day spend more than an hour attending to their health needs.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2014 American Time Use Survey

Household Income Grows in December

Median household income in December 2015 stood at $57,153, according to Sentier Research—0.7 percent higher than the November median, after adjusting for inflation. The December 2015 median was 4.3 percent higher than the December 2014 median and 10.2 percent above the $51,859 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"There has been a general upward trend in median household income since the post-recession low point reached in August 2011," reports Sentier. Its median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in December 2015 was 2.7 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 0.8 percent higher than the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It is still 0.4 percent lower than the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for December 2015 was 99.6 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: December 2015

Why Working-Age Adults Go to the Emergency Room

Among Americans aged 18 to 64, a substantial 18 percent visited an emergency room one or more times in 2014, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. These are the reasons people visit an emergency room rather than go to a doctor's office...

Reasons for emergency room visit
Seriousness of the problem: 77.1%
Doctor's office not open: 11.8%
Lack of access: 7.0%

Note: Lack of access includes didn't have another place to go, emergency room is the closest provider, or get most of care at the emergency room.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Reasons for Emergency Room Use among U.S. Adults Aged 18-64: National Health Interview Survey, 2013 and 2014

Top 10 Occupations: Average Diversity

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 in which the race and Hispanic origin distribution of workers is most similar to the national average (6% Asian; 11% Black; 16% Hispanic; 64% non-Hispanic White)...

Occupations with the most average diversity
1. Bank tellers
2. Hosts and hostesses, restaurants and coffee shops
3. Retail salespersons
4. Office clerks
5. Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers
6. Telecommunications line installers and repairers
7. Order clerks
8. Receptionists and information clerks
9. Food service managers
10. Health practitioner support technicians

Click here for the top 10 occupations by race and Hispanic origin: Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Whites.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Older Americans Are Deeper in Debt

Today's older Americans have more debt than their predecessors, according to a Liberty Street Economics analysis. Among borrowers aged 50 to 80, aggregate debt grew 60 percent between 2003 and 2015, while the debt of younger borrowers fell slightly during those years.

Tapping into the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on Equifax credit data, the researchers examined five types of debt (mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, student loans, and home equity lines of credit) to see how balances have changed. Among borrowers aged 50 or older, the per capita balance of each type of debt except credit cards increased between 2003 and 2015. Among younger borrowers, the per capita balance of each type of debt except student loans fell during those years.

This is good news, say the researchers, because older borrowers are more likely to pay back their loans. So far there is no evidence of greater delinquency among older borrowers as their debt level has grown. The aging of the nation's borrowers is likely to mean "greater balance sheet stability" and less "credit-fueled consumption growth."

Source: Liberty Street Economics, The Graying of American Debt

Homeownership Rate Falls (Again) in 2015

The nation's homeownership rate fell to 63.7 percent in 2015, down from the peak of 69.0 percent in 2004—a 5.3 percentage point decline. Among householders aged 30 to 44, the rate fell by more than 10 percentage points during those years...

Homeownership rate in 2015 (and percentage point decline since peak year of 2004)
Total households: 63.7% (-5.3)
Under 25: 21.8% (-3.4)
25 to 29: 31.7% (-8.5)
30 to 34: 45.9% (-11.5)
35 to 39: 55.3% (-10.9)
40 to 44: 61.6% (-10.3)
45 to 54: 70.0% (-7.2)
55 to 64: 75.4% (-6.3)
65-plus: 78.9% (-2.2)

The long-term decline in homeownership, now in its second decade, shows no sign of stopping. Between 2014 and 2015, every age group with the sole exception of householders under age 25 (whose homeownership rate climbed by a minuscule 0.1 percentage points) experienced a decline in  homeownership. The overall homeownership rate fell by 0.8 percentage points between 2014 and 2015, greater than the 0.6 percentage point decline in the previous year. 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

24% of Nation's Children Have Immigrant Parent(s)

Nearly one in four children under age 18 in the United States has at least one immigrant parent, according to an Urban Institute study. The number of children with at least one immigrant parent grew by 1.9 million between 2006 and 2013. At the same time, the number of children with native-born parents fell by 1.3 million.

Nine out of 10 children of immigrants are U.S. citizens. Nearly half (48 percent) live in just 10 metropolitan areas: New York; Los Angeles; Chicago; Houston; Miami; Dallas; Washington, DC; Riverside, CA; San Francisco; and Atlanta.

Source: Urban Institute, Children of Immigrants: 2013 State Trends Update

Who Gets Enough Sleep?

Percentage of Americans who report getting an average of 7 or more hours of sleep in a 24-hour period, according to the CDC's Behavorial Risk Factor Surveillance System...

Age
18 to 24: 67.8%
25 to 34: 62.1%
35 to 44: 61.7%
45 to 64: 62.7%
65-plus: 73.7%

Race and Hispanic origin
Asians: 62.5%
Blacks: 54.2%
Hispanics: 65.5%
Non-Hispanic Whites: 66.8%

Education
Less than college: 62.4%
College graduate: 71.5%

Marital Status
Never married: 62.3%
Married: 67.4%
Separated, divorced, widowed: 55.7%

Source: CDC, Prevalence of Healthy Sleep Duration among Adults—United States, 2014

The Life of American Workers in 1915

Canned goods were sophisticated, overweight was a sign of good health, there was no such thing as standard time, and phonographs were the must-have tech. These are just a few of the fascinating facts revealed by a Monthly Labor Review article about the lives of workers in 1915. By examining the demographics, occupations, working conditions, and home life of workers in 1915, Bureau of Labor Statistics' economist Carol Boyd Leon reveals how much has changed...

• In 1915, nearly 1 in 3 workers was a farm laborer versus fewer than 1 in 100 today. 
• In 1915, 56% of men aged 65 or older were in the labor force versus 23% today.
• In 1915, the average man earned $687 per year ($16,063 in 2015 dollars) compared with median earnings of $40,638 for male workers today. 

This look at the life of American workers in 1915 also reveals some things that haven't changed. Kellogg's Corn Flakes and Shredded Wheat were popular breakfast foods in 1915, for example, and there was a debate about whether cereal was a healthier breakfast food than meat or eggs.

Source: Monthly Labor Review, The Life of American Workers in 1915

Top 10 Occupations: Hispanics

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Hispanics...

Hispanic share of workers (average = 16%)
1. Drywall installers: 61.5%
2. Roofers: 58.1%
3. Graders and sorters, agricultural products: 54.0%
4. Misc. agricultural workers: 49.2%
5. Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers: 48.7%
6. Painters, construction and maintenance: 48.2%
7. Helpers, construction trades: 45.6%
8. Carpet, floor, and tile installers and finishers: 44.2%
9. Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons: 43.9%
10. Maids and housekeeping cleaners: 43.8%

See also: Top 10 Occupations: Non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Blacks
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

College Freshmen More Liberal

One in three college freshmen identifies him or herself as "far left" or "liberal," according to The American Freshmen: National Norms Fall 2015—the highest share since 1973. The figure peaked in 1971 at 41 percent and hit a low of 21 percent in 1981.

Percent of college freshmen identifying themselves as "far left" or "liberal"
2015: 33.5%
2010: 30.2%
2005: 30.5%
2000: 27.7%
1995: 25.2%
1990: 26.5%
1985: 24.1%
1981: 21.0% (low)
1980: 22.7%
1975: 32.6%
1971: 40.9% (high)

Only 22 percent of today's college students identify themselves as "conservative" or "far right," and 45 percent describe themselves as "middle of the road."

Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, The American Freshmen: National Norms Fall 2015

Top 10 Occupations: Blacks

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Blacks (alone)...

Black (alone) share of workers (average = 11%)
1. Barbers: 36.3%
2. Nursing, psychiatric, and home health aides: 35.9%
3. Postal service clerks: 30.8%
4. Security guards and gaming surveillance officers: 30.3%
5. Taxi drivers and chauffeurs: 28.8%
6. Licensed practical nurses: 27.9%
7. Postal service mail sorters and processors: 27.5%
8. Misc. healthcare support occupations: 26.9%
9. Parking lot attendants: 26.3%
10. Eligibility interviewers, government programs: 26.3%

See also: Top 10 Occupations: Non-Hispanic Whites and Asians
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Growing Gap in Life Expectancy

You might have seen this headline: "Disparity in Life Spans of the Rich and the Poor Is Growing" in the New York Times. Once again researchers are documenting an expanding gap in life expectancy by socioeconomic status. The latest analysis, by the Brookings Institution, looks at the widening gap and examines its potential to increase income inequality in old age.

The Brookings study measures the life expectancy of two cohorts of men and women by earnings and educational attainment—those born in 1920 and those born in 1940, using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Among men in the HRS and SIPP samples, the researchers find life expectancy rising between the 1920 and 1940 cohorts regardless of socioeconomic status, but the rise is much larger for those at the upper end. In the lowest earnings decile of the SIPP sample, for example, the life expectancy of men born in 1920 was 74.3 years and climbed to 76.0 years in the 1940 cohort—a rise of 1.7 years. In the highest earnings decile, life expectancy climbed from 79.3 to 88.0 years—a rise of 8.7 years. The gap in life expectancy between the two deciles grew from 5.0 to 12.0 years between the 1920 and 1940 cohorts.

The pattern is the same for women, except life expectancy fell for those in the lowest earnings decile of the HRS sample between the 1920 and 1940 cohorts (from 79.0 to 76.7 years—a drop of 2.3 years). Those in the top decile saw the biggest gain, their life expectancy climbing from 83.7 to 87.0 years—a gain of 3.3 years. The gap in life expectancy between the two deciles climbed from 4.7 to 10.3 years between the 1920 and 1940 cohorts. The growing gap also emerges when the data are examined by educational attainment.

Does the growing gap in life expectancy by socioeconomic status (SES) mean Social Security benefits will disproportionately accrue to the rich rather than the poor? While this is a potential problem, it is "damped by the fact that low SES individuals tend to claim Social Security at younger ages while high SES workers are more likely to postpone retirement and benefit claiming," conclude the researchers.

Source: The Brookings Institution, Later Retirement, Inequality in Old Age, and the Growing Gap in Longevity Between Rich and Poor

What Does It Take To Be Middle Class?

"Which of the following do Americans need to be considered part of the middle class?"

Secure job: 89%
Ability to save money: 86%
Time/money for vacation: 45%
Home ownership: 41%
College education: 30%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Americans Say Government Doesn't Do Enough to Help Middle Class

How Many Americans Are "Gig" Workers?

A surprisingly large percentage of Americans engage in informal paid work, according to the Survey of Informal Work Participation—and the percentage who participate in the "gig" economy is growing. The Informal Work Participation survey was included in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations in December 2013 and again in January 2015 in an attempt to measure the percentage of Americans who participate in alternative income-generating activities and how their participation is changing. These activities include babysitting, housesitting, dog walking, lawn care, elder care, personal services (such as taxi service), selling online, renting property, consignment sales, and so on.

The 2013 survey found a substantial 40 percent of respondents participating in informal paid work. Two years later, the 2015 survey found a much larger 52 percent participating. Behind the increase, theorize researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, is greater work opportunities provided by Uber and other online platforms.

With so many participating in informal paid work, "It is important to determine whether the meaning of 'employed' status according to the BLS might be changing over time," say the researchers. At this point, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not able to make that determination because it has not collected data on the informal (or "contingent") workforce since 2005—long before the likes of Uber appeared on the scene. Fortunately, the BLS has been funded to update the survey in a supplement to the May 2017 Current Population Survey. Until then, the results from the Survey of Informal Work Participation are perhaps the best available estimates of the "gig" workforce.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Changing Patterns in Informal Work Participation in the United States 2013-2015

Trends in the Uninsured, 2004 to 2015

In less than 24 months, the percentage of working-age adults without health insurance has plummeted. It's not often social scientists get the opportunity to observe, in just a few months time, so big a change in such an important socioeconomic indicator.

In the decade prior to implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014, the percentage of 18-to-64-year-olds without health insurance averaged 20.4 percent, the figure ranging from a low of 19.3 percent in 2005 to a high of 22.3 percent in 2010. Between 2013 (pre-ACA) and 2015 (post-ACA), the percentage without health insurance fell by a jaw-dropping (for social scientists, at least) 7.5 percentage points—to a record low of 12.9 percent...

People aged 18 to 64 without health insurance, 2004 to 2015
2015: 12.9%
2014: 16.3%
2013: 20.4%
2012: 20.9%
2011: 21.3%
2010: 22.3%
2009: 21.2%
2008: 19.9%
2007: 19.6%
2006: 20.0%
2005: 19.3%
2004: 19.4%

Note: 2015 figure is for the January-September time period.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-September 2015 and Health, United States, 2014

Top 10 Occupations: Asians

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of Asians (alone)...

Asian (alone) share of workers (average = 6%)
1. Misc. personal appearance workers: 55.3%
2. Medical scientists: 33.8%
3. Software developers, applications and systems: 31.9%
4. Statisticians: 24.5%
5. Computer hardware engineers: 22.8%
6. Electrical and electronics engineers: 21.4%
7. Sewing machine operators: 21.1%
8. Physicians and surgeons: 21.0%
9. Computer systems analysts: 20.9%
10. Computer programmers: 19.7%

See also: Top 10 Occupations: Non-Hispanic Whites
Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Sandwich Consumption: Who, What, and When?

On an average day, 47 percent of Americans aged 20 or older eat a sandwich, according to the USDA's Food Surveys Research Group—52 percent of men and 43 percent of women.

• Cold cuts are the most popular type of sandwich (27%), followed by burgers (17%), poultry (12%), and hot dogs (10%). Only 6 percent are peanut butter. 
• Lunch accounts for nearly half of sandwiches eaten (48%), followed by dinner (31%), breakfast (13%), and snacks (8%).
• Most sandwiches or their ingredients (58%) are purchased at a store. Twenty-seven percent are from fast-food restaurants. 
• Fifty-nine percent of burgers and 46 percent of poultry sandwiches are from fast-food restaurants, while 76 percent of cold cut sandwiches are from a store.

Source: USDA, Food Surveys Research Group, Sandwich Consumption by Adults in the U.S.

Football is America's Favorite Sport

Football is by far America's favorite sport, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute (go figure). Fully 38 percent of adults say football is their favorite. Then comes basketball (11 percent), baseball (9 percent), soccer (8 percent), auto racing (6 percent), and ice hockey (5 percent). Only 13 percent of Americans say they don't watch sports.

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Nearly One-Third of Americans Say They Would Not Let Their Son Play Football

Top 10 Occupations: Non-Hispanic Whites

Among the hundreds of detailed occupations examined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the 10 with the largest percentage of non-Hispanic Whites...

Non-Hispanic White share of workers (average = 64%)
1. Tool and die makers: 95.5%
2. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers: 94.9%
3. Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers: 94.1%
4. Medical transcriptionists: 91.0%
5. Veterinarians: 90.9%
6. Chiropractors: 90.1%
7. Television, video, and motion picture camera operators: 89.9%
8. Fundraisers: 89.8%
9. Construction and building inspectors: 89.1%
10. Appraisers and assessors of real estate: 88.8%

Stay tuned for the top 10 occupations among Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data from the Current Population Survey

Water Not Safe to Drink

Long before Flint Michigan's water problems became a national news story, a substantial 9 million American households identified their primary source of water as unsafe to drink. We know this thanks to the American Housing Survey, which asks respondents whether their primary source of water is safe for drinking. This is the percentage of households with water not safe to drink (excluding households whose primary source is commercial bottled water)...

Primary source of water is unsafe to drink
Total households: 8%
Owners: 6%
Renters: 11%
Blacks: 10%
Hispanics: 20%
Below poverty: 12%
Northeast: 6%
Midwest: 4%
South: 8%
West: 12%
Central city: 9%
Suburb: 7%
Nonmetropolitan: 6%

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey

Could Older Americans Work Longer?

Could older Americans work longer if they had to? The answer is yes, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study of the work capacity of people aged 55 or older.

The authors ask this question: "If people with a given mortality rate today worked as much as those with the same mortality rate in the past, how much could they work?" The answer: a lot. Among 55-to-59-year-olds today, 70.5 percent are in the labor force. But if they worked as much as the people of 1977 with the equivalent mortality rate, then a much larger 86.0 percent would be employed. Among 60-to-64-year-olds the employment rate would rise from 56.2 to 83.2 percent. Among 65-to-69-year-olds, the figure would rise from 32.3 to 74.1 percent.

"Employment declines rapidly as workers reach their 60s, while health declines steadily but quite gradually with age," say the researchers. "The fact that health does not plummet along with employment suggests that there are reasons other than health for the employment declines, such as the availability of Social Security," they conclude.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages: Evidence from the U.S., Working Paper 21940

Women Earn 97 Percent As Much As Men

Among recent college graduates, that is, and after controlling for college major.

A Liberty Street Economics analysis of the wages of men and women aged 22 to 27 with at least a bachelor's degree finds women earning 97 percent as much as men after controlling for college major. In 29 of 73 college majors examined, women earned more than men—including social services, treatment therapy, industrial engineering, and art history.

Among college graduates aged 35 to 44, however, the analysis found men earning 15 percent more than women on average. In every major in which women earned more than men among young adults, the advantage disappeared by middle age. In the majors in which men earned more than women among young adults, the earnings gap expanded. What's behind this shift?

Discrimination could be one reason for the shift, say the researchers, but women's greater family responsibilities are a likely major contributor. "Because raising a family often requires more flexible schedules, those with family responsibilities who have difficulty satisfying time sensitive work demands may face lower wages," they explain. "In fact, in jobs where such time demands are largely absent, and more flexibility is possible, the pay gap has been found to be much smaller."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, When Women Out-Earn Men

Who Owns a Gun?

Despite all the talk about guns, only 32 percent of Americans have a gun in their home, according to the General Social Survey—a figure that has fallen over the past few decades (it was more than 50 percent in the early 1980s). Gun ownership is much more common among non-Hispanic Whites than Blacks or Hispanics...

Percent of households with a gun
Black households: 15%
Hispanic households: 15%
Non-Hispanic White households: 42%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2015

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2015: 45.9%

The homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 30 to 34 fell in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 45.9 percent, down 0.9 percentage points from the 46.8 percent of the third quarter. This is disappointing news for the housing industry, which is anxiously waiting for first-time homebuyers to return to the marketplace. The rise in the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds in the third quarter of 2015 appears to have been a bobble at the bottom and not a turnaround. 

Historically, homeownership became the norm in the 30-to-34 age group—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. It's been stuck there ever since. The new age of first-time home buying is 35 to 39, but even this age group has been slipping toward the 50-percent threshold. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds climbed to 56.2 percent—up from the third quarter's record low of 54.6 percent. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds peaked in the first quarter of 2007 at 65.7 percent.

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 63.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 64.0 percent a year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Prescription Painkiller Abuse: The Personal Connection

Most Americans have a personal connection to prescription painkiller abuse, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey. The 56 percent majority of Americans say they 1) personally know someone who has taken a prescription painkiller not prescribed to them; and/or 2) personally know someone who has been addicted to prescription painkillers, and/or 3) personally know someone who died from a prescription painkiller overdose.

The demographic segments most likely to have a personal connection to prescription painkillers are Whites, those with a household income of $90,000 or more, adults under age 50, those with some college, college graduates, suburban residents, and men.

The demographic segments least likely to have a personal connection to prescription painkillers are Hispanics, people aged 65 or older, Blacks, those with a high school diploma or less education, urban residents, and women.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll

American Culture Since the 1950s

"Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?"

Percent saying America has changed for the worse
72% of White evangelical Protestants
67% of Republicans
58% of White mainline Protestants
58% of White Catholics
53% of all Americans
43% of non-Christian religion affiliation
43% of Black Protestants
41% of Hispanic Catholics
40% of Democrats
35% of religiously unaffiliated

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Two-Thirds of Republicans Say American Culture Has Worsened Since 1950s

Older Singles Spend More on Health Care

For Americans aged 65 or older, out-of-pocket per person health care expenses are greater for singles than for couples, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. EBRI analyzed two types of out-of-pocket expenses: recurring (dental visits, doctor visits, and prescription drugs), and nonrecurring (outpatient surgery, hospital stays, in-home care, and nursing home care). During a two-year period, recurring expenses average $2,500 per person regardless of age or whether the elderly person lives alone or with a spouse. "It was clear that the recurring health care expenses were very predictable," notes EBRI.

Nonrecurring out-of-pocket expenses are another story. Not only are per person expenses higher for singles than for couples, but the difference increases with age. For singles aged 65 to 74, average nonrecurring expenses were $766 more for singles than for couples ($2,790 versus $2,024 over two years). By age 85-plus, singles spent an average of $4,825 more than couples on a per person basis ($13,355 versus $8,530).

What makes nonrecurring out-of-pocket expenses so much more costly for singles than for couples? Singles do not have the advantage of a live-in caregiver, suggests EBRI. The biggest differences in out-of-pocket nonrecurring costs were for nursing homes and home health care. "As health breaks down with age," EBRI concludes, "the advantage of having a spouse or partner to act as caregiver results in lower spending."

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Differences in Out-of-Pocket Health Care Expenses of Older Single and Couple Households

Even Among Centenarians, Hispanics Less Likely to Die

There were 72,197 people aged 100 or older in the United States in 2014, reports the National Center for Health Statistics in an analysis of centenarian mortality. The 2014 death rate in this oldest age group was a substantial 35.9 per 100 centenarians. In other words, more than one-third did not make it through the year. But the death rate varies by race and Hispanic origin...

Deaths per 100 centenarians by race and Hispanic origin
Hispanics: 22.3
Non-Hispanic Blacks: 28.6
Non-Hispanic Whites: 39.3

Among centenarians, Hispanics have a lower death rate than Blacks and a strikingly lower death rate than non-Hispanic Whites. This Hispanic advantage is also found among those younger than 100-plus. It's a phenomenon called the "Hispanic paradox." Hispanics have lower mortality rates and a longer life expectancy than others despite their lower socioeconomic status. The Hispanic advantage is due to lower mortality from a variety of leading causes of death including heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, and Alzheimer's, according to an NCHS analysis. These diseases are also leading causes of death among centenarians. Consequently, even in the oldest age group, Hispanics are less likely to die.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Among Centenarians in the United States, 2000-2014

Why Cities Have Been Gentrifying

A shortage of leisure time may be behind the growing vibrancy of the nation's cities, suggests a National Bureau of Economic Research study. Over the past few years cities have become magnets for time-starved skilled workers, who are driving up housing prices. By analyzing tract-level data for the 27 largest U.S. cities from 1980 through 2010, the study's authors find a critical shift in relative housing prices: In 1980, prices were higher in the suburbs than in city centers. By 2000, city centers had the highest housing prices.

Behind the shift in housing prices is reduced tolerance for commuting among time constrained, highly skilled (read: college educated) workers. "Gentrification may be the result of high-income households seeking to protect increasingly scare leisure by reducing time spent on low-utility activities such as commuting," summarizes the NBER Digest.

Living in the suburbs is doable when husbands work shifts and wives are at home, but the suburbs make less sense for a work force increasingly dominated by full-time workers (many of them dual-income couples). As leisure time contracted among skilled workers between 1985 and 2005, say the authors, those who could afford to cut the commute bought homes in urban centers, driving up prices and gentrifying neighborhoods.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill, Working Paper 21729 ($5)

Lots of Job Openings, Lots of Hiring

Job seekers might be interested in a Monthly Labor Review analysis of which industries always need lots of workers. Two stand out: professional and business services, and accommodation and food services. Both industries have high rates of job openings and hires. "The simultaneous high rates indicate that, in spite of strong hiring, even more employees are needed," reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A look at average earnings in each industry reveals different processes at work in creating these behemoths of job opportunity...

• The earnings of those employed in professional and business services (a category that includes legal, accounting, architecture, engineering, and computer services, as well as temporary help agencies) is one of the highest, an average of $29.28 per hour. Professional and business services is continually hiring because of the rapidly expanding need for skilled tech workers. 
• The earnings of those employed in accommodation and food services is the lowest of any industry, an average of $13.03 per hour. Accommodation and food services is continually hiring because workers use it as a stepping stone to better-paying jobs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Which Industries Need Workers? Exploring Differences in Labor Market Activity

More Bad News about Death

A few months ago two Princeton economists, analyzing death certificates, discovered a disturbing trend: mortality rates were rising for whites age 45 to 54. Now the New York Times has taken a look at the issue, analyzing 60 million death certificates spanning the years from 1990 to 2014. The Times found something even more disturbing: rising or flattening death rates for all white adults under age 65. "The analysis shows that the rise in white mortality extends well beyond the 45-to-54 age group documented by a pair of Princeton economists in a research paper that startled policy makers and politicians two months ago," reports the Times.

As with the earlier study, the rise in mortality is especially pronounced among less-educated whites and driven by drug (legal and illegal) overdoses. For those who would like to analyze trends in drug poisoning deaths, visit the National Center for Health Statistics' data visualization gallery to examine and download national, state, and county level data from 2002 to 2014.

Source: New York Times, Drug Overdoses Propel Rise in Mortality Rates of Young Whites

Most Are Clueless about Retirement Needs

Most of the nation's workers say they need to save at least $1 million to feel financially secure in retirement, according to the 16th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey of Workers. Fully 57 percent of Gen Xers feel that way, as do 55 percent of Millennials and 53 percent of Boomers. But this is how much workers have saved so far, by generation...

Total household retirement savings
Millennials: $25,000
Generation Xers: $61,000
Baby Boomers: $132,000

Clearly, the nation's workers are so far from achieving their $1 million retirement security goal that it's safe to say most will never make it. Perhaps a little planning is needed. When asked how they came up with the $1 million estimate of needed savings, 57 percent of Millennials, 55 percent of Gen Xers, and 49 percent of Boomers say it's just a guess. Only 16 to 24 percent have made an estimate of retirement savings needs based on current living expenses, and the percentages who have used a retirement calculator, completed a worksheet, or talked to a financial advisor is in the single digits.

Source: Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 16th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey of Workers

Financial Stability More Important than Mobility

Americans far prefer financial stability to financial mobility, according to Pew Charitable Trusts' Survey of American Family Finances...

Which is more important to you—financial stability or moving up the income ladder?
Moving up: 8%
Financial stability: 92%

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, Survey of American Family Finances

Have We Turned a Corner?

The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but a number of vital socioeconomic indicators—such as household income, household spending, births, and homeownership—continued to decline. Until now. The latest data suggest we may have turned a corner...

Is median household income making a comeback? Median household income in 2014 was still below the median of 2007, after adjusting for inflation. But in November 2015, median household income finally surpassed the December 2007 median, according to monthly household income estimates by Sentier Research.

Is household spending growing? Average household spending peaked in 2006, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Then the Great Recession hit, and spending fell 9 percent between 2006 and 2013, after adjusting for inflation. But spending grew 3 percent between 2013 and 2014, and many categories in long-term decline began to grow—including apparel, food away from home, alcoholic beverages, and household furnishings.

Is the baby bust over? The number of births in the United States climbed 1 percent between 2013 and 2014, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—the first increase since 2007. Even more important, the fertility rate—the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 inched up from the all-time low of 62.5 in 2013 to 62.9 in 2014.

Are Millennials buying? The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed to 46.8 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the Census Bureau. This was 1.6 percentage points higher than the all-time low of 45.2 recorded in the second quarter of 2015.

As new data emerge over the next few months, we'll find out whether we have indeed turned a corner or hit another dead end. Stay tuned.

Graduation Rates Vary by Type of College

Only 39 percent of students who start as full-time, first-time bachelor's degree seekers finish their degree in the allotted four years, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The 59 percent majority completes the degree in six years, however. But the figure varies greatly by type of school...

Finished bachelor's degree in four years
Total institutions: 39.1%
Public institutions: 32.9%
Private, nonprofit: 52.9%
Private, for-profit: 23.4%

Finished bachelor's degree in six years
Total institutions: 59.2%
Public institutions: 57.2%
Private, nonprofit: 65.5%
Private, for-profit: 31.4%

Finished bachelor's degree in eight years
Total institutions: 61.6%
Public institutions: 60.3%
Private, nonprofit: 66.6%
Private, for-profit: 32.6%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Graduation Rates for Selected Cohorts, 2006-11; Student Financial Aid, Academic Year 2013-15; and Admissions in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2014, First Look (Provisional Data)

Feelings of Financial Security Depend on Day of Month

Americans are more likely to feel financially secure on the first day of the month than on the last day of the month, according to Barriers to Saving and Policy Opportunities—the third in a series of three issue briefs from Pew Charitable Trusts' Survey of American Family Finances.

This curious day-of-the-month finding makes sense when you know the context in which most Americans live: 55 percent of households spend all or more their income most months, and 60 percent experience at least one financial shock in a 12-month time period. Little wonder, then, that as a month progresses a substantial share of households discover they don't have enough money to make ends meet.

On the first day of the month, 52 percent of Americans feel financially secure. On the last day of the month, only 34 percent feel secure. "The data show that, for many respondents, perceptions of well-being are driven more by their financial conditions at the moment than by the longer-term outlook," concludes the report. These short-term shifts in opinion are crucial to policy and program participation and effectiveness."

Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Barriers to Saving and Policy Opportunities

Straight or Gay? New Data on Sexual Orientation from the National Survey of Family Growth

It's not easy to collect data on sexual orientation, sexual attraction, or sexual experience. Many Americans are understandably hesitant to reveal details about their personal lives to government interviewers. But ask respondents to put on headphones, listen to a series of questions, and enter answers directly into a laptop computer (a method knows as "audio computer-assisted self-interviewing," or ACASI) and data begin to emerge. The National Survey of Family Growth used ACASI when it surveyed the nation's 18-to-44-year-olds about their sexuality. Here are the results...

• Sexual attraction: 4% of men and 6% of women say they are attracted equally to both sexes, mostly or only to the same sex, or refused to answer.
• Sexual orientation: 5% of men and 8% of women identify themselves as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or refuse to answer.
• Same-sex sexual contact: 6% of men and 17% of women say they have had same-sex sexual contact.

Why are women so much more likely than men to report same-sex sexual contact? Most likely because men and women are asked different questions. Women are asked whether they have ever given or received oral sex from another female. If they answer no, then they are asked whether they have ever had any sexual experience of any kind with another female, boosting the figure to 17 percent. Men are asked whether they have ever given or received oral or anal sex from another male. They are not asked the additional question about sexual experience of any kind. Thus, the smaller 6 percent.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Orientation Among Adults Aged 18-44 in the United States: Data from the 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth

26% Had Problems Paying Medical Bills

More than one in four Americans aged 18 to 64 say they or someone in their household had problems paying medical bills in the past 12 months, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation/New York Times survey. Here's who ran into trouble...

Percent of 18-to-64-year-olds with problems paying medical bills in past 12 months
Total with problems: 26%
With health insurance: 20%
Without health insurance: 53%

It's not hard to figure out why those without health insurance would have trouble paying their medical bills. But what caused trouble for those with health insurance? Three things, according to the survey's findings. Among the 20 percent of 18-to-64-year-olds with health insurance who had problems paying their medical bills...

• 75% could not afford their insurance plan's co-pays, deductibles, or coinsurance.
• 32% received care from an out-of-network provider, and their insurance did not cover the full cost of care. Most were surprised by the out-of-network bill, with 69 percent of those who received a surprise bill unaware that a provider was not in their plan's network. 
• 26% said their insurance claim was denied.

Source: The Burden of Medical Debt: Results from the Kaiser Family Foundation/New York Times Medical Bills Survey

Men's Earnings, 1979 to 2014

The median weekly earnings of men who work full-time stood at $871 in 2014—about 2 percent lower than the $888 of 1979, after adjusting for inflation. But this small decline in the median masks the different fortunes of men at the top and bottom of the income scale...

Usual weekly earnings of highest-paid 10 percent of men who work full-time
2014: $2,094
1979: $1,565
Percent change: +34%

Usual weekly earnings of lowest-paid 10 percent of men who work full-time
2014: $395
1979: $447
Percent change: -12%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, A Look at Pay at the Top, the Bottom, and In Between

Most Middle-Aged and Older Americans Are Being Treated for Chronic Health Conditions

Old age is not for sissies, and chronic conditions are one of the reasons. Among 18-to-44-year-olds, most are free of health problems. Only 20 percent of adults under age 45 are being treated for a chronic health condition. In middle age, troubles become commonplace. Fully 56 percent of 45-to-64-year-olds are being treated for at least one chronic condition. Among people aged 65 or older, the figure rises to 85 percent.

In every age group, Hispanics are less likely than non-Hispanic Whites or Blacks to be receiving treatment for chronic health conditions. The biggest gap is in middle age. Only 49 percent of Hispanics aged 45 to 64 are being treated for a chronic health condition. This compares with 57 percent of non-Hispanic Whites and 62 percent of non-Hispanic Blacks. Many Hispanics lack health insurance, and they see health care providers less frequently than non-Hispanic Whites or Blacks. Is that why fewer are being treated for chronic conditions? Perhaps. But Hispanics also live longer, so it's likely they're simply healthier.

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Health Expenditures for Adults by Number of Treated Chronic Conditions, Race/Ethnicity, and Age, 2012

Who's Not Working?

More than 87 million Americans aged 16 or older did not work in 2014, nor did they look for work—17 million more than in 2004. Nonworkers grew from 31 to 35 percent of the adult population during those years. What's behind the increase? A big factor is the baby-boom generation, which is inflating the number of retirees. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calls this the "age effect." Here are the four types of nonworking adults...

• The number of adults not in the labor force because they are retired climbed from 31 million to 39 million between 2004 and 2014. Most are aged 65 or older.
• The number of adults not in the labor force because they are ill or disabled climbed from 12  million to 16 million between 2004 and 2014. Most are aged 55 or older, but a substantial 45 percent are aged 25 to 54.
• The number of adults not in the labor force because they are in school climbed from 11 million to 16 million between 2004 and 2014. Most are aged 16 to 24. 
• The number of adults not in the labor force because they are caring for home and family was 13.5 million in 2014, the same as in 2004. Two out of three are women aged 25 to 54.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, People Who Are Not In the Labor Force: Why Aren't They Working?

Births to Unmarried Women by State, 2014

Among the nearly 4 million babies born in 2014, a substantial 40.2 percent were born to unmarried women. The percentage of babies born out-of-wedlock varies greatly by state, with the majority born out of wedlock in three states and the District of Columbia...

States with the highest percentage of births out of wedlock
Mississippi: 54.0%
Louisiana: 52.7%
New Mexico: 51.3%
District of Columbia: 50.2%

States with the lowest percentage of births out of wedlock
Utah: 18.6%
Colorado: 22.4%
Idaho: 27.8%
Washington: 32.1%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2014, Supplemental Tables

Average Age at First Birth, 2014

The average age of American women giving birth for the first time climbed to a record high of 26.3 in 2014—nearly four years greater than in 1980. Behind the rise in age at first birth is the increase in college attendance. The percentage of female high school graduates who enroll in college within 12 months of graduation climbed from half in 1980 to more than two-thirds today.

Average age at first birth
2014: 26.3
2010: 25.2
2007: 25.0
2000: 24.9
1990: 24.2
1980: 22.7

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2014, Supplemental Tables

Household Income Stable in November 2015

Median household income in November 2015 stood at $56,746, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the October median, after adjusting for inflation. The November 2015 median was 4.8 percent higher than the November 2014 median and 9.4 percent above the $51,875 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase significantly in November 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since the beginning of the last recession in December 2007." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in November 2015 was 1.9 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It has now surpassed (by $32) the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was still 1.1 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for November 2015 was 98.9 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: November 2015

State Migration, 2010 to 2015

Americans aren't moving as much as they once did, but those who move are having a big impact on some state populations. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia gained more domestic migrants than they lost between 2010 and 2015, while 29 states lost more than they gained. Here are the five states with the highest and lowest rates of net domestic migration during the past five years...

Highest rates of net domestic migration
1. North Dakota
2. District of Columbia
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. South Carolina

Lowest rates of net domestic migration (losses)
1. New York
2. Illinois
3. Alaska
4. New Jersey
5. Connecticut

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Child Care Costs Up 70%

Among families with employed mothers who pay for child care, the average weekly cost has grown from $84 in 1985 to $143 in 2011, after adjusting for inflation—a 70 percent increase. For families with preschoolers, the average weekly cost of child care in 2011 was an even higher $179. The steep and rising cost of child care explains why so many families with preschoolers depend on grandparents. Fully 21 percent of families with preschoolers and a working mother relied on a grandparent as the primary child care provider in 2011, up from 16 percent in 1985.

Source: Census Bureau, Who's Minding the Kids? Child Care Arrangements: Spring 2011

Uptick in the Tchotchke Index

The Tchotchke Index ticked up in 2014, with average household spending on gift shop items, home decor trinkets, and yard sale finds rising to $111. The rise in the index is a positive economic indicator. The more we're willing to spend on tchotchkes, the greater our economic well-being. Demo Memo Blog created the Tchotchke Index several years ago to track consumer confidence (here is the original post). It's the amount of money spent by the average household on "decorative items for the home," a category in the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Tchotchke index remains well below its peak. In 2000, the average household spent $263 (in 2014 dollars) on decorative items for the home. Spending plunged during the recession of the early 2000s, struggled to reach $236 in 2005, then plummeted during the Great Recession. The index hit an all-time low of $104 in 2013...

Tchotchke Index (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $111
2013: $104
2012: $131
2011: $123
2010: $110
2009: $142
2008: $139
2007: $177
2006: $166
2005: $236
2004: $208
2003: $168
2002: $198
2001: $202
2000: $263

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

State Population Change, 2010 to 2015

Between 2010 and 2015, the U.S. population as a whole grew 3.9 percent to 321 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 12.2 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state—West Virginia's population fell 0.5 percent during those years.

Fastest growing states, 2010 to 2015

1. North Dakota, 12.2%

2. District of Columbia, 11.1%

3. Texas, 8.8%

4. Colorado, 8.1%

5. Utah, 7.9%

6. Florida, 7.5%

7. Nevada, 6.9%

8. Arizona, 6.6%

9. Washington, 6.3%

10. South Carolina, 5.6%

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Is There Hope for Homeownership?

Even if the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds remains in the doldrums, the number of young-adult homeowners is likely to rise in the next few years, according to a Fannie Mae analysis. With the number of 25-to-34-year-olds in the population projected to expand by about 500,000 a year for the rest of the decade, a stable homeownership rate should result in growing numbers of homeowners in the age group.

The homeownership rate of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds plunged from 46.7 percent in 2006 to just 36.9 percent in 2014, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The number of homeowners in the age group fell by 1.8 million during those years. If the homeownership rate has hit bottom and remains there, then the number of homeowners in the age group will rise by 74,000 a year. That's a big reversal from the average annual loss of 231,000 homeowners aged 25 to 34 since 2006.

Whether the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds will stabilize is a big if, however. The Fannie Mae report notes that if the homeownership rate of the age group continues to fall at the same rate of decline as occurred from 2012 to 2014, then the number of homeowners aged 25 to 34 will shrink by 113,000 a year on average from now until 2020.

Source: Fannie Mae, Housing Insights, Could the Long Decline in Young-Adult Homeownership Be Nearing An End?

Trouble With the Redesigned CPS

Not everyone is happy with the redesigned Current Population Survey. An Employee Benefit Research Institute report questions some of the new numbers emerging from the redesign.

First, some background. The Census Bureau redesigned the Current Population Survey's income questions to better capture retirement income. The new income questions were presented to a split CPS sample in 2014 (collecting data for 2013) and to the full sample in 2015 (collecting data for 2014). The new questions successfully captured more retirement income, long known to be underreported. But anomalies are emerging in other CPS data. In particular, EBRI is troubled by a drop in retirement plan participation. Among full-time workers aged 21 to 64 in 2013, the percentage who participated in a retirement plan was only 49.5 percent based on the new questions versus 53.0 percent based on the old questions. In 2014 (when the entire CPS panel was asked the new questions), participation fell to 46.6 percent. The redesigned CPS is not only showing lower participation, says EBRI, but also declining participation—a larger decline than ever recorded in CPS data going back to 1987.

What really bugs EBRI is this: the biggest decline is occurring in the segment most likely to participate in a retirement plan—full-time workers aged 21 to 64 with earnings of $75,000 or more. The 2013 new questions found their participation to be 63.4 percent versus 68.6 percent with the old questions. In 2014, their participation declined to 61.1 percent. These declines are questionable, says EBRI, because other surveys show rising retirement plan participation.

"While the redesign of the CPS questionnaire achieved one of its primary goals of capturing more income—especially pension income—it appears to have had a serious impact on the results of other variables within the survey," EBRI researcher Craig Copeland concludes. In the future, he says, researchers may have to turn to alternative sources—such as the National Compensation Survey—to accurately track retirement plan participation.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, The Effect of the Current Population Survey Redesign on Retirement-Plan Participation Estimates

Who Thinks They're A Great Parent?

Among parents with children under age 18, most say they're doing a "very good job" as a parent, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Millennial mothers are most likely to give themselves a big pat on the back—57 percent say they're doing very well, thank you. A smaller 48 percent of Gen Xers feel that way. Among Boomers, the figure is just 41 percent.

There's a reason for these generational differences. Among parents with children under age 18, Millennials are most likely to have only preschoolers at home—an age group that generates feelings of smug satisfaction. Boomers are most likely to have teens under their roof—an age group that generates feelings of despair. Pew's survey examines this very phenomenon. Among parents whose oldest child is under age 6, the 52 percent majority say they're doing a very good job. Among those with teens at home, only 42 percent feel so certain.

Source: Pew Research Center, Parenting in America

College Does Not Protect Wealth of Blacks, Hispanics

College graduates weather economic downturns better than those with less education. That's the assumption, but is it true? Only for Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Take a look at the inflation adjusted 2007-to-2013 trend in median net worth by educational attainment of householder for each race and Hispanic origin group...

Asian households
With bachelor's degree: +5%
Without bachelor's degree: -65%

Non-Hispanic White households
With bachelor's degree: -16%
Without bachelor's degree: -33%

Black households
With bachelor's degree: -60%
Without bachelor's degree: -37%

Hispanic households
With bachelor's degree: -72%
Without bachelor's degree: -41%

For Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, a college degree offered some protection during the Great Recession. For Blacks and Hispanics, a college degree meant greater losses. As disturbing as this finding is, it gets worse. The same pattern can be found over the longer term—from 1992 to 2013. Asian and non-Hispanic White households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth grow by more than 80 percent during those years, after adjusting for inflation, while their less-educated counterparts experienced a decline. But Black and Hispanic households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth shrink between 1992 and 2013. For Hispanic college graduates, net worth fell 27 percent during those years versus a 31 percent increase in the net worth of their less-educated counterparts. For Black college graduates, net worth fell 56 percent between 1992 and 2013 while Blacks without a college degree experienced a smaller 4 percent loss.

"College degrees alone do not provide short-term wealth protection, nor do they guarantee long-term wealth accumulation," conclude the researchers. "The underlying factors causing racial and ethnic wealth disparities undoubtedly are complex and deeply rooted. Further research is needed."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Center for Household Financial Stability, Why Didn't Higher Education Protect Hispanic and Black Wealth?

Median Housing Value Grows—Finally

The median value of owned homes in the United States increased in 2014 for the first time since the Great Recession. The nation's homeowners estimated their home's value to be a median of $181,200 in 2014, according to the American Community Survey. This is 2.5 percent more than the post-Great Recession low of $176,721 in 2013, after adjusting for inflation, but 18 percent below the 2007 median of $221,845.

Median housing value, 2007 to 2014 (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $181,200
2013: $176,721
2012: $177,247
2011: $182,705
2010: $195,311
2009: $204,363
2008: $217,271
2007: $221,845

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Nearly Half of Americans Play Video Games

Almost half of American adults (49 percent) play video games (on a computer, TV, game console, cell phone, or tablet), according to a Pew Research Center survey. A smaller 10 percent consider themselves "gamers."

Percent who play video games by age
Aged 18 to 29: 67%
Aged 30 to 49: 58%
Aged 50 to 64: 40%
Aged 65-plus: 25%

Interestingly, men and women are about equally likely to report ever playing video games—50 percent of men and 48 percent of women. Among 18-to-29-year-olds, 77 percent of men and 57 percent of women play video games. The gender pattern is reversed among adults aged 50 or older: 29 percent of men and a larger 38 percent of women play video games.

Source: Pew Research Center, Gaming and Gamers

Boomer Women at Work: A History

The women of the baby-boom generation were the first to make paid work the norm for wives and mothers. Now that the oldest boomers are reaching retirement age, demographer Javier Garcia-Manglano looks back at their labor force experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women, he examines the work and family history of women born between 1944 and 1954 and finds boomer women fitting into four types...

Consistently attached to the labor force: 40%
The most common type, the Consistently Attached have worked for decades with nary a break. They are the type most likely to be childless (40%) and least likely to be married to a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (13%). Interestingly, this type is least likely to have a husband in the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly attached to the labor force: 27%
Early marriage and childbearing define these women. The Increasingly Attached are most likely to have ever married and to have had a first birth while in their early twenties. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (55%). Perhaps as a consequence, they have the highest divorce rate among the four groups (50%).

Consistently detached from the labor force: 21%
Early childbearing and health problems are the defining characteristics of this group. Among the four types, the Consistently Detached are most likely to have had a teen birth, an out-of-wedlock birth, and three or more children. Half have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay. A substantial 42 percent have health problems that limit work. Interestingly, this type is the one most likely to have a husband in either the lowest or the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly detached from the labor force: 13%
Health and job problems have been experienced disproportionately by the Increasingly Detached. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a health condition limiting their work (44%). They are also most likely to have experienced discrimination on the job (24%).

Source: Opting out Leaning In: The Life Course Employment Profiles of Early Baby Boom Women in the United States, Javier Garcia-Manglano, Demography ($39.95)

Americans Don't Think They Are Overweight

Only 37 percent of Americans think they are overweight, according to a Gallup survey.

Not so, says the National Center for Health Statistics, which actually measures the height and weight of a nationally representative sample of the population. According to its measurements, a much larger 69 percent of Americans are overweight.

Source: Gallup, Fewer Americans Say They Want to Lose Weight

Boomers Missing Go-Go Years of Retirement

It looks like a lot of boomers will miss out on the go-go years of retirement. That's because of a stunning increase in the labor force participation rate of men and women in their sixties, according to new labor force projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• The labor force participation rate of men aged 62 to 64 will climb to 60 percent by 2024, up from just 45 percent in 1994. Work is now the norm for men in the age group. For their fathers who retired in the 1990s, retirement was the norm. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 62 to 64 will reach 47 percent by 2024, up from 33 percent a generation ago in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69 will climb to 40 percent by 2024, up from 27 percent in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 65 to 69 will climb to 33 percent by 2024, up from 18 percent a generation ago. 

Because of the growing labor force participation of older boomers, the go-go retirement market (aged 55 to 74) will be 18 percent smaller in 2024 than it would have been if boomers were retiring at the rate their parents did in 1994. The number of retirees aged 55 to 64 is projected to shrink 3 percent during the decade ahead. While the number of retirees aged 65 to 74 will increase, the gain will be less than in the 2004-14 decade. Industries that depend on go-go retirees—casinos, travel, RVs, golfing communities—may want to rethink their strategy as growth in the active retirement market will be much more modest than once anticipated.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014 to 2024

The number of non-Hispanic Whites in the labor force is shrinking, according to the latest set of projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past decade, the number of non-Hispanic White workers fell by 2.5 million. During the next decade, they will decline by another 3 million. The non-Hispanic White share of the labor force will fall from 65 to 60 percent between 2014 and 2024.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by race and Hispanic origin, 2014 to 2024
Asians: +2,032,000 (23%)
Blacks: +1,899,000 (10%)
Hispanics: +7,116,000 (28%)
Non-Hispanic Whites: -3,039,000 (-3%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Who Owns Multiple Digital Devices?

Most Americans own multiple digital devices, according to a Pew survey. Fully 66 percent of adults own at least two devices (smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer) and 36 percent own all three. By age, this is who owns all three devices...

Own smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer
Aged 18 to 29: 41%
Aged 30 to 49: 51%
Aged 50 to 64: 27%
Aged 65-plus: 16%

Source: Pew Research Center, Smartphone, Computer or Tablet? 36% of Americans Own All Three

Household Income Stable in October 2015

Median household income in October 2015 stood at $56,671, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the September median, after adjusting for inflation. The October 2015 median was 5.3 percent higher than the October 2014 median and 9.3 percent above the $51,860 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase in October 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in October 2015 was 1.8 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was about the same as the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 1.2 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for October 2015 was 98.8 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: October 2015

Spending by Generation, 2014

In an experimental research effort, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has examined household spending by generation based on data from the 2014 Consumer Expenditure Survey (birth years based on Pew Research Center definitions)...

Average household spending in 2014
Millennials (1981 and later): $43,942
Generation X (1965 to 1980): $63,137
Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964): $58,202
Silent Generation (1929 to 1945): $40,923
WWII Generation (1928 and earlier): $32,610

Gen Xers spend much more on mortgage interest than any other generation. Many bought homes when housing prices were peaking. Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers spend more on cell service than landline service. Eighty percent of Millennial households own a car. Ownership peaks at 91 percent among Boomers and falls with age to 66 percent in the WWII generation (aged 86 or older). Gen Xers spend the most on men's clothes. Boomers spend the most on women's clothes. Average household spending on entertainment is highest among Gen Xers. Millennials spend relatively little on entertainment, surpassing only the WWII generation. Even the Silent generation spends more on entertainment than Millennials.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CE Experimental Research Tables

Wireless-Only Demographics, January-June 2015

Forty-seven percent of Americans aged 18 or older live in a wireless-only household—meaning the household has cell phones but no landline. Among children, the figure is an even higher 55 percent. These are the demographic segments with a wireless-only majority...

85% of people who live with non-relatives
71% of 25-to-29-year-olds
68% of 30-to-34-year-olds
67% of renters
59% of 18-to-24-year-olds
59% of the poor
59% of Hispanics
57% of 35-to-44-year-olds
54% of the near-poor
53% of adults living with children
53% of workers
52% of people in the Midwest
51% of people who live alone
50% of people in the South

Least likely to live in a wireless-only household are people aged 65 or older (19%), those in the Northeast (32%), and homeowners (37%).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June 2015

Single-Person Households by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2015

People who live alone head a substantial 28 percent of households in the United States. The figure varies by race and Hispanic origin. More than one in three Black households are headed by people who live alone compared with only 17 percent of Hispanic households...

Single-person households as a share of total households in 2015
17.2% of Hispanic households
18.4% of Asian households
29.5% of non-Hispanic White households
34.8% of Black households

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

For Many, Spending Rises After Retirement

Many households spend more rather than less after retirement, reports the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Analyzing data from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study, EBRI researcher Sudipto Banerjee finds a rise in spending for many retirees. In the first year or two of retirement, 46 percent of households spend more. By the sixth year of retirement, 33 percent are spending more than they had in their pre-retirement years.

Post retirement spending as a percent of preretirement spending in sixth year of retirement
Spending less than 80 percent of preretirement income: 53.1%
Spending 80 to 100 percent of preretirement income:: 13.4%
Spending 100 to 120 percent of preretirement income: 10.0%
Spending 120 percent or more of preretirement income: 23.4%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Change in Household Spending After Retirement: Results from a Longitudinal Sample

Most Millennials Say Finances Are Improving

Thirty-six percent of Americans aged 18 or older think their financial situation is improving, according to the 2014 General Social Survey. This figure is higher than it was in 2010, when only 25 percent felt things were getting better. Older Americans are least likely to feel this way (15 percent), largely because most are on fixed incomes. Young adults are most likely to feel upbeat. The majority of Millennials in 2014 said their finances were getting better...

Percent of Millennials who say their financial situation is getting better
2014: 54.1%
2012: 39.1%
2010: 34.2%

Note: Millennials were aged 20 to 37 in 2014.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Empty Piggy Banks

How much money could the typical household access within 30 days to cover the cost of a financial shock? According to the Survey of American Family Finances, the median household could get its hands on just $3,000 within 30 days. That's not much of a buffer, and it includes credit cards and help from friends and family.

In the second of three reports on the finances of American households, Pew Charitable Trusts examines the financial assets available to families when they experience a financial shock. That's when, not if. Financial shocks are the norm. Fully 60 percent of households experienced a financial shock in the past year, according to the findings of Pew's first report, available here.

One of the most important resources for weathering a financial shock is liquid savings, which Pew defines as money in a checking or savings account, cash saved at home, and the value of unused prepaid cards. The typical household has only $3,800 in liquid savings, and a substantial one in four has less than $400.

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, What Resources Do Families Have for Financial Emergencies?

Median Age at First Marriage: 2015

Women: The median age of women marrying for the first time inched up to 27.1 in 2015, a bit higher than the 27.0 of 2014 and a full seven years above the all-time low of 20.1 in 1956.

Men: The median age of men marrying for the first time fell slightly to 29.2 in 2015, a bit lower than the 29.3 of 2014 and nearly seven years greater than the 22.5 low of 1956.

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements, Historical Time Series