Millennial Marriage Projections

The Millennial generation has postponed marriage for so long it will go into the record books. According to projections by the Urban Institute, Millennials will be less likely to have married by age 40 than any generation in American history—even if they hurry up about it.

"The economic shock of the recession put marriage on hold for many young adults and marriage rates are returning slowly (if at all) to pre-recession levels," explain the Urban Institute researchers in their report on the projections. Take a look at the trend: Among women, the percentage who had married by age 40 was 91 percent for older Boomers, 87 percent for younger Boomers, and 82 percent for Generation X. Even if marriage rates return to pre-recession levels, only 77 percent of younger Millennial women will have married by age 40. If marriage rates do not rebound, an even smaller 69 percent will have married by age 40. For millennial men, the respective figures are 73 percent with a rebound and 65 percent without.

"With respect to marriage at least, our projections indicate that many of these millennials will not recover in the future from the opportunities they have missed as young adults," say the researchers. As if that's not enough, there's more bad news. Not only will Millennials be the biggest "singles" generation in history, but marital status will split the generation into haves and have-nots. That's because marriage rates are higher for college graduates, who earn more and tend to marry one another.

Source: Urban Institute, Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40

Household Income Falls in March 2014

One step forward, two steps back. Median household income ticked up in February, only to fall back in March. According to Sentier Research, median household income fell to $53,043 in March 2014. This figure is 0.7 percent lower than in the previous month, after adjusting for inflation. The March 2014 median was 1.3 percent higher than the March 2013 figure, however, and 3.0 percent higher than the $51,482 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

We are still playing catch-up with the way we were. Median household income in March 2014 was a substantial 4.0 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 5.7 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 6.9 percent below the median of January 2000. For more information on household income trends for the nation, states, and metropolitan areas, visit the Sentier Research web site.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: March 2014

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2014

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2014: 47.5%

Another decline in the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34. The 47.5 percent rate recorded for this age group in the first quarter of 2014 was 1.4 percentage points below their rate a year ago and 1.1 percentage points below their fourth quarter 2013 rate. 

Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time homebuyers. Historically, this was the age group in which homeownership became the norm—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. It bottomed out at 46.9 percent in the third quarter of 2012 and has bobbled around 48 percent in every quarter since.

The only good news for the housing industry in the latest Census Bureau release is the rise in the homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39—the new age of first-time home buying. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds climbed from 55.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013 to 56.5 percent in the first quarter of 2014—a 1.2 percentage point gain.

Nationally, the homeownership rate slipped to 64.8 percent in the first quarter of 2014, down from 65.0 percent one year ago.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Searching for the Middle Class

How do you define the middle class—is it a number or a feeling? In a recent study, the Congressional Research Service examined both approaches to defining the middle class.

The number. One way to define the middle class is statistically, such as dividing households into fifths based on their income. Everyone in the middle three quintiles, say, is defined as middle class. In 2012, this includes households with incomes between $20,591 and $104,087.

The feeling. Alternately, the middle class can be defined as a psychological pat on the back—the sense of satisfaction obtained when comparing your income to the income of those around you. Studies have found a strong link between relative income and self-reported happiness. "Relative income most affects well-being when a group's income is above the average in its state but not at the top (90th percentile) of the income distribution," notes the report. That feeling of well-being defines the middle class. If you don't feel it, you're not in it.

Source: Congressional Research Service, The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class (PDF)

Measuring the Losses of the Great Recession

"As society becomes richer over time, succeeding cohorts acquire more wealth than their predecessors," notes an Urban Institute study. "The cohort born in 1943-51 were wealthier than those born in 1934-42 (at the same age), who were wealthier than those born in 1925-33."

Until 1952, that is. For those born in 1952 and later, wealth began to shrink relative to preceding cohorts at the same age. The Great Recession had something to do with this reversal of fortune, according to the study, which estimates how much richer American households would be today if the Great Recession had never happened. Answer: 28.5 percent richer. For younger adults—Gen Xers in particular—the gap between what is and what could have been is much bigger—47 percent—because many were recent homebuyers and disproportionately affected by the housing market collapse.

Source: Urban Institute, Impact of the Great Recession and Beyond

Adopted, Step, and Biological Children

Adopted children live in the most affluent households. Biological children are the least affluent. A Census Bureau report analyzes the nation's adopted, step, and biological children under age 18 and the characteristics of their parents. These are among the findings...

• Number. Of the nation's 65 million children, 62 million are biological children of the householder, 2.4 million are step children, and 1.6 million are adopted.
• Income. The nation's adopted children live in households with a median income of $73,378. This compares with a smaller median of $64,974 for step children and an even smaller median of $59,905 for biological children. 
• Education. The parents of adopted children are much better educated than other parents. Thirty-nine percent have a bachelor's degree or more education compared with 31 percent of biological parents and just 20 percent of step parents.
• Homeownership. The parents of adopted children are more likely to be homeowners (76 percent) than the parents of step or biological children (61 and 62 percent, respectively).
• Race. The parents of adopted children are more likely than the parents of step or biological children to be of a different race than their child—24 percent versus 13 and 7 percent, respectively.
• Age. The parents of adopted children are older than the parents of step or biological children, with an average age of 44.8 versus 38.5 for step parents and 38.4 for biological parents. 

Source: Census Bureau, Adopted Children and Step Children: 2010

The Baby-Boom Generation Is Shrinking

As of July 1, 2013, there were 316,128,839 people in the United States. The Census Bureau recently released estimates of the population by single-year of age on that date. Here is the size, share of total population, age range, and birth date of each generation...

Recession generation: 19,868,088 (6.3%)
   aged 4 or younger, born 2009 or later
iGeneration: 58,003,393 (18.3%)
   aged 5 to 18, born 1995 to 2008
Millennial generation: 77,970,996 (24.7%)
   aged 19 to 36, born 1977 to 1994
Generation X: 49,211,709 (15.6%)
   aged 37 to 48, born 1965 to 1976
Baby-boom generation: 75,900,696 (24.0%)
   aged 49 to 67, born 1946 to 1964
Older Americans: 35,173,957 (11.1%)
   aged 68 or older, born 1945 or earlier

Aging is taking a toll on boomers and older Americans. Since 2010, the baby-boom generation has shrunk by 1.1 million, and the number of older Americans has declined by 5.1 million. Generation X is just beginning the downward slide, falling by 207,000. The millennial generation is still growing, however. Thanks to immigration, the number of millennials expanded by 1.4 million between 2010 and 2013.

Who Reads Hard Copy Books?

Forty-six percent of American adults say they read only hard copy books, according to a Harris survey. A slightly larger 48 percent read books in hard copy and in electronic formats, and 6 percent read only e-books. By generation, this is the percentage who...

Read books in hard copy only

Millennials: 34%

Gen Xers: 46%

Boomers: 52%

Matures: 57%

Source: Harris Interactive, Power(ed) Readers: Americans Who Read More Electrically Read More, Period

Yoga by Region

Every five years the federal government surveys the public about its use of "complementary" medicine, which is defined as "a group of diverse medical and health care interventions, practices, products, or disciplines that are not generally considered part of conventional medicine." The first findings from the 2012 survey results examine regional differences in the use of several categories of complementary medicine, among them yoga and massage.

Regional differences in the practice of yoga and massage are not a surprise, but interesting to see documented. Nationally, 8.4 percent of adults practiced yoga in 2012. The practice peaks at 12.1 percent in the Pacific states and bottoms out at 5.1 percent in the East South Central states of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The regional pattern for massage therapy is similar. Overall, 6.8 percent of adults participated in massage therapy in 2012. The percentage peaks at 9.4 percent in the Pacific and Mountain states and bottoms out at 2.5 percent in the East South Central states. "Regional differences persist across a wide range of complementary health approaches," explains the report, and are due to "environmental and cultural factors" unique to towns and regions.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Regional Variation in Use of Complementary Health Approaches by U.S. Adults

The World's Most Popular Food

Will you dine on the world's most popular food today? The answer is "yes" if you plan to eat pizza, according to the USDA. In an analysis of pizza consumption, government researchers estimate that a substantial 13 percent of Americans aged 2 or older eat pizza on an average day. A government analysis of pizza consumption might seem a bit silly, but it's actually important because the dish plays such a big role in the American diet. Pizza accounts for a large portion of our daily intake of protein, calcium, sodium, and other nutrients—not to mention calories.

Younger Americans eat the most pizza. Twenty-two percent of children and teenagers (aged 6 to 19) eat pizza on an average day. Among those who do, the largest share have it for lunch (44 percent) and another 42 percent for dinner. The remainder eats it as a snack (10 percent) or even for breakfast (4 percent).

The likelihood of eating pizza on a given day declines with age to a low of 6 percent among people aged 60 or older. Among adults who eat pizza, the 59 percent majority have it for dinner, 28 percent for lunch, 11 percent as a snack, and 2 percent for breakfast.

Source: USDA, Food Surveys Research Group, Consumption of Pizza, What We Eat in America, NHANES 2007-2010

The Health Insurance Statistics Problem

There's a reason why economists are invited to testify before Congress and fêted at White House events while demographers are relegated to a warren of offices in the basements of beltway buildings. Economists are Big Picture people. They get it. Demographers are spreadsheet people. They don't.

The demographer problem explains why the "technicians" at the Census Bureau decided now was the time to introduce a new way to measure health insurance coverage—just as the Affordable Care Act goes into effect, just as the statistics collected by Gallup, Rand, the Urban Institute, and other organizations begin to show a jump in health insurance coverage. The Census Bureau's health insurance estimates for 2013 and onward will not be comparable with 2012 and earlier. Those crazy demographers.

Yes, yes, demographers have their reasons. The director of the Census Bureau explained their reasons after the news broke in the New York Times—the years of research, the tests, the results. Too bad that during all those years none of the technicians looked up from their spreadsheets long enough to see the Big Picture—the politics, the media, the nation's need for a story.

"The Census Bureau, the authoritative source of health insurance data for more than three decades, is changing its annual survey so thoroughly that it will be difficult to measure the effects of President Obama's health care law," explained the New York Times. Improved methodology is important, demographers would argue, but sometimes the Big Picture is even more important.

Income of the Population 55 or Older

Among people aged 55 or older, earnings as a share of total income by age...

Aged 55 to 61: 73%
Aged 62 to 64: 55%
Aged 65 to 69: 32%
Aged 70 to 74: 16%
Aged 75 to 79: 9%
Aged 80-plus: 4%

Among people aged 55 or older, Social Security as a share of total income by age...

Aged 55 to 61: 9%
Aged 62 to 64: 22%
Aged 65 to 69: 43%
Aged 70 to 74: 58%
Aged 75 to 79: 65%
Aged 80-plus: 70%

Source: Social Security Administration, Income of the Population 55 or Older, 2012

When Did Men's Income Peak?

Here's an interesting exercise. Take the median income of American men since 1950, adjust it for inflation, and rank it from highest to lowest to determine the year in which men's income peaked and how much it has declined since then.

Among all men aged 15 or older, median income peaked in 2000, at $37,791. Between the peak year and 2012, men's median income fell 10 percent—to $33,904, after adjusting for inflation. A 10 percent decline sounds pretty bad, but if you do this exercise for men of working age (25 to 64), the trends are even worse...

Year in which men's median income peaked
Aged 25 to 34: 1973
Aged 35 to 44: 1973
Aged 45 to 54: 1999
Aged 55 to 64: 2003

Percent change in men's median income, peak year to 2012
Aged 25 to 34: -27%
Aged 35 to 44: -19%
Aged 45 to 54: -17%
Aged 55 to 64: -13%

The median income of men aged 25 to 34 has plunged since 1973, falling from $46,598 to $34,113 after adjusting for inflation—a loss of $12,485. Men aged 35 to 44 have lost $10,345 since their peak. Men aged 45 to 54 have lost $9,762, and men aged 55 to 64 have lost $6,407.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Statistics

Travelers 50-Plus

The average household spends about $1,500 on travel each year, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The biggest spenders on travel are older Americans. The AARP recently surveyed Americans aged 50-plus to examine how frequently they travel for nonbusiness purposes and how they make arrangements for their trips. Some of the findings...

• Number of trips per year of more than 250 miles: 3.32 
• Most frequent travelers: 60-to-69-year-olds (3.81 trips per year)
• Percent using the Internet to book trip arrangements: 84%
• Top two reasons for travel: spend time with family (59%) and vacation (44%)

Source: AARP, AARP Online Travel Study

Summer or Winter?

According to a recent Gallup survey, only 34 percent of the American public worries a great deal about global warming. Maybe that's because fully 77 percent of Americans prefer summer to winter, according to a Harris survey. Here are the percentages who prefer summer by generation...

Millennials: 70%
Gen Xers: 80%
Boomers: 79%
Older: 86%

Source: Harris Interactive, Less than Half of Americans Believe Humans Are Cause of Global Climate Change

Underemployment among Recent College Graduates

For recent college graduates, underemployment is a bigger problem than unemployment, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Underemployment is defined as working at a job that does not require a college degree. A recent Fed study measured the underemployment rate of all college graduates and recent college graduates.

Among all college graduates, the underemployment rate (calculated by dividing the number of college graduates who are underemployed by the total employed) has remained steady at about 33 percent over the past two decades. Among recent college graduates (those aged 22 to 27), a larger 44 percent were underemployed in 2012.

Although today's high rate of underemployment among recent college graduates is not unprecedented (the rate was 46 percent in 1990-91), there are some troubling differences between then and now. First, the share of recent college graduates who are underemployed in "good jobs" (with an average wage of about $45,000 per year) has declined from about half to about one-third. Second, the share of recent college graduates who work part-time has climbed from 14 to 23 percent.

"Taken as a whole, these trends provide evidence that the job prospects for recent college graduates have indeed worsened," conclude the researchers.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?

Payment Choice by State

A study of 2 billion retail transactions at a discount chain with thousands of stores reveals differences by state in the frequency with which customers pay with cash, debit cards, credit cards, or checks. Here are the states in which customers are most likely to use...

Cash: New Jersey
Debit: Arizona
Credit: Minnesota
Check: South Dakota

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Payment Choice and the Future of Currency: Insights from Two Billion Retail Transactions

Survey Tracks Changes in Health Insurance Coverage

In the field of demography, rapid change is rare. But rapid change is what we have today as the Affordable Care Act extends health insurance to millions.

According to the Urban Institute's Health Reform Monitoring Survey, the number of 18-to-64-year-olds with health insurance expanded by a substantial 5.4 million between September 2013 and March 2014. The percentage without health insurance fell from 17.9 to 15.2 percent during those months. But there are big differences in the percentage of 18-to-64-year-olds without health insurance by state, depending on whether the state chose to expand Medicaid...

States expanding Medicaid: 12.4%
States not expanding Medicaid: 18.1%

Source: Urban Institute, QuickTake: Number of Uninsured Adults Falls by 5.4 Million since 2013

What's Behind the Pension Gap?

There's a yawning gap in the pension participation of older workers by income. The Center for Retirement Research of Boston College analyzes 1992 to 2010 data from the Health and Retirement Study to determine why this gap exists and what can be done about it.

Among people aged 50 to 58 in 2010, only 19 percent of those with household incomes below 300 percent of the poverty level participated in a pension at their workplace. Among workers in the same age group with incomes above 300 percent of the poverty line, the 56 percent majority participated in a pension at work. What accounts for this gap? The results of the analysis show that the low participation rate of low-income workers is not due to a lack of interest nor due to a lack of income. Instead, the gap is caused primarily by the lower employment rate of low-income individuals (they can't get a job) and the lower probability that those with a job will be offered a pension by their employer (they can't get a good job).

"Policies such as automatic enrollment that focus on pension eligibility or take-up are unlikely to close the pension coverage gap," conclude the CRR researchers. There's no quick fix for closing the gap, they say, because it will require not only more jobs, but more "good jobs."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Lower-Income Individuals without Pensions: Who Misses Out and Why?

Few Older Americans Own a Smartphone

Cell phones are popular among Americans aged 65 or older, but smartphones are not. According to a survey by Pew Research Internet Project, fully 77 percent of people aged 65 or older own a cell phone, including the majority of people aged 80 or older. Here are the percentages by age...

Own cell phone
Aged 65 to 69: 84%
Aged 70 to 74: 84%
Aged 75 to 79: 72%
Aged 80-plus: 61%

Few of those cell phones are smartphones, however. Only 18 percent of people aged 65 or older own a smartphone, with the proportion falling steeply with age...

Own smartphone
Aged 65 to 69: 29%
Aged 70 to 74: 21%
Aged 75 to 79: 10%
Aged 80-plus: 5%

Source: Pew Research Internet Project, Older Adults and Technology Use

The 10 Largest Occupations, 2013

Just 10 occupations employ more than one in five (21 percent) American workers. Here are those occupations and the annual average wage for full-time workers in 2013, ranked by number employed...

1. Retail salesperson: $25,370
2. Cashier: $20,420
3. Food prep worker: $18,880
4. Office clerk: $29,990
5. Registered nurse: $68,910
6. Waiter or waitress: $20,880
7. Customer service rep: $33,370
8. Laborer: $26,690
9. Secretary: $34,000
10. Janitor: $25,140

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages—May 2013

Hispanic is Not a Race

Hispanic is an ethnic origin and not a race. Demographers have been trying to explain that one for decades. No one struggles with the distinction between race and ethnicity more than Hispanics themselves, as revealed by a recent Census Bureau working paper.

Among the nation's 50 million Hispanics in 2010, fully 41 percent identified themselves as "some other race" on the census race question or did not respond to the race question at all. To solve this glaring problem, the Census Bureau is considering combining the race and ethnic origin questions on the 2020 census. For more, see Race Reporting Among Hispanics: 2010.

Household Income Rises in February 2014

Finally, an uptick in median household income. According to Sentier Research, median household income climbed to $53,093 in February 2014. This figure is 1.2 percent higher than the January 2014 median, after adjusting for inflation. The February 2014 median is 3.8 percent higher than the $51,152 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

Despite the increase, median household income in February 2014 was still 3.3 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 5.0 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 6.2 percent lower than the January 2000 median. For more information on household income trends for the nation, states, and metropolitan areas, visit Sentier's web site. 

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: February 2014

Parenting at Age 27

If you want proof that going to college delays childbearing, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 has the evidence. This survey has been tracking the educational attainment, employment status, and living arrangements of a representative sample of Americans born in the early 1980s since they were aged 12 to 17 in 1997. The latest data, collected in 2011-12, reveals the status of these young adults at age 27. The results show striking differences in childbearing by education...

Percent living with own or partner's child
Total sample at age 27: 40.7%
High school dropout: 60.8%
High school graduate only: 52.3%
Some college/associate's degree: 44.1%
Bachelor's degree or higher: 19.4%

At age 27, most young adults with a high school diploma or less education are living with their own or a partner's child. In contrast, fewer than one in five of those with at least a bachelor's degree are caring for children. Interestingly, partner status varies much less by education, with 55 percent of the least educated and 52 percent of the most educated 27-year-olds living with a partner (married or cohabiting).

Bureau of Labor Statistics, America's Young Adults at 27: Labor Market Activity, Education, and Household Composition: Results from a Longitudinal Survey Summary

Why Are Urban Counties Growing?

The nation's most urban counties are growing faster than others, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2013 county population estimates. Counties in metro areas with the largest populations are growing the fastest—a 3 percent increase between 2010 and 2013. Counties in smaller metros are growing at a slower rate, and those in rural areas are losing people.

What is behind these trends? One reason for the strong growth of the nation's urban counties is domestic migration: Americans are voting with their feet for city life. The rate of domestic migration in the 2010-to-2013 time period was positive only for the most urban counties, those ranking a 1 or 2 on the Rural-Urban Continuum (counties in metro areas with 250,000 or more people). For less urban and rural counties, the domestic migration rate was negative—meaning more Americans moved out than moved in. Not only are less urban and rural counties losing residents to migration, but in the most rural counties—those ranking 8 or 9 on the Rural-Urban Continuum—deaths exceeded births in the 2010-to-2013 time period. This  double whammy is resulting in historic population losses in the nation's small towns and countryside.

Cites Continue to Sparkle

The nation's cities continue to attract Americans by the millions, according to the Census Bureau's 2013 county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2013 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents strong city growth (the bigger, the better) and unrelenting rural decline.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,143 counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2013 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2013 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 3.0% for rank 1 counties, in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 2.2% for rank 2 counties, in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 1.5% for rank 3 counties, in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.0% for rank 4 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
5. 1.1% for rank 5 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
6. -0.5% for rank 6 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
7. -0.3% for rank 7 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
8. -1.1% for rank 8 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop less than 2,500
9. -0.6% for rank 9 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro, urban pop less than 2,500

The most urban counties (a 1 on the scale) grew the fastest between 2010 and 2013. The most rural counties (8 and 9 on the scale) experienced the biggest declines.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, American Factfinder, County Population Estimates

State of the News Media 2014

Good news: Digital news outlets have created 5,000 full-time editorial jobs in the past decade.
Bad news: "It is far from clear there is a digital news business model to sustain these outlets."

Source: Pew Research Journalism Project, State of the News Media 2014

Unpaid Medical Debt

Percentage of Americans with unpaid medical debt by generation...

31% of Millennials
31% of Gen Xers
22% of Boomers
10% of Older Americans

Source: FINRA Investor Education Foundation, The Financial Capability of Young Adults—A Generational View

Household Income Stable in January 2014

If you hate change, you're going to love the trend in household income. According to an analysis by Sentier Research, median household income was $52,511 in January 2014 and not statistically different from the December 2013 median, after adjusting for inflation. Although median household income has not changed significantly in the past year or so, the January 2014 median was 2.6 percent higher than than the $51,186 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

Median household income in January 2014 was 4.4 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.3 percent lower than the January 2000 median. For more information on household income trends for the nation, states, and metropolitan areas, visit Sentier's web site. 

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: January 2014

Play the Game: Population Bracketology

This one is for all you March Madness fans who also happen to be armchair demographers: Population Bracketology, brought to you by the Census Bureau. It's an interactive chart (a game!) that tests your knowledge of population data. Guess which state or metro in each match-up has the larger population, round by round. A perfect score is 63.

It's not as easy as it sounds. In my first game of metro match-up, I scored a 54. In my second attempt, a 55. Some of the match-ups are hard to call, such as Rochester vs. Honolulu. The state game isn't any easier. I scored a 53 on my first round, then a 55. Which is larger: Wisconsin or Missouri? See if you can beat my score.

Less than $1,000 in Savings

Among the nation's workers aged 25 or older, more than one-third (36 percent) have less than $1,000 in savings—defined as the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and defined-benefit retirement plans. The percentage of workers with almost no savings is growing, according to the 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey. In 2009, only 20 percent of workers had less than $1,000 in savings. By age, here is the percentage of workers with less than $1,000 in savings...

Aged 25 to 34: 43%
Aged 35 to 44: 37%
Aged 45 to 54: 34%
Aged 55-plus: 24%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey

The Old and Young at Work

Among occupations that employ at least 500,000 workers, these are the oldest and youngest...

Oldest Median Age
Farmers and ranchers: 56.1
Bus drivers: 52.7
Chief executives: 52.5

Youngest Median Age
Food prep workers: 27.8
Cashiers: 26.7
Waiters and waitresses: 26.2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished table from the 2013 Current Population Survey

So Much for the Inheritance Boom

For decades we've been hearing about the billions of dollars the baby-boom generation would inherit as their elderly parents (the richest elders in history) passed on. But a new study of inheritances finds their impact declining rather than growing. The study, published in The Journal of Economic Inequality and reported on in the Monthly Labor Review, uses 1989 to 2007 data from the Survey of Consumer Finances to examine the impact of inheritances on household net worth.

The impact is a fizzle, not a boom. Rather than increasing as a share of household net worth during the 1989 to 2007 time period, the inheritance share fell from 29 to just 19 percent. Where did the money go?

No one knows for sure, but here's my theory: The prime suspect in the disappearance of all those billions is the health care industry. Perfectly positioned to siphon family wealth from long-lived elders, the health care industry has transformed the long-awaited inheritance boom into a health care facilities, services, and salary boom. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, the average man aged 65 or older needs $122,000 in savings to cover 90 percent of his out-of-pocket health care costs in retirement. The average woman needs $139,000. Those numbers are conservative because they do not include the extraordinary cost of long-term care.

What Americans Think about their Diet

When asked "In general, how healthy is your overall diet?" this is how Americans aged 20 or older respond...

9.4% excellent
21.7% very good
43.0% good
21.5% fair
4.3% poor

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Flexible Consumer Behavior Survey, 2009-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

The Toothless Elderly

Among Americans aged 65 or older, 23 percent have lost all their natural teeth. The percentage peaks at 58 percent among poor whites in nonmetropolitan areas of the South Atlantic states.

Source: CDC, Health Data Interactive

College Costs Are a Growing Concern

Cost is a growing concern when choosing a college, according to the latest American Freshman Survey. Nearly half (46 percent) of college freshmen say cost was a "very important" factor when deciding which school to attend—the highest level in the 10 years the survey has been asking the question. In 2004, just 31 percent of college freshmen said cost was very important in their college choice.

The percentage of freshmen who say the financial aid package offered by their school was very important in their choice climbed to 49 percent in 2013, the highest level in the 42 years the question has been asked. In 2004, only 34 percent said financial aid was very important.

Perhaps because of the growing importance of cost, the percentage of college freshmen who are enrolled at their first-choice school fell to a record low of 57 percent in 2013—despite the fact that more than 75 percent got into their first-choice school. When asked why they were not attending their first-choice school, most cited financial concerns as very important factors.

Source: UCLA, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2013

The Declining Fortunes of Young Adults

Percent change in average real net worth of households by age of householder, 1989 to 2013:Q3...

Under age 40: -8.5%
Aged 40 to 61: +65.4%
Aged 62-plus: +92.9%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Housing Crash Continues to Overshadow Young Families' Balance Sheets

Eating Out by Age

The great majority of Americans eat out during an average week. Among people aged 20 or older, 81 percent got at least one prepared meal from a restaurant, grocery store deli, or vendor in the past seven days. Age is one of the most important determinants of how often people eat out. The oldest adults are more than twice as likely as the youngest to not eat out at all during an average week (28 versus 12 percent). The youngest adults are nearly four times as likely as the oldest to eat out eight or more times per week (16 versus 4 percent).

Number of meals prepared away from home in past week: 0
Total people: 19.3%
Aged 20 to 39: 12.1%
Aged 40 to 54: 20.0%
Aged 55 to 64: 22.6%
Aged 65 or older: 28.2%

Number of meals prepared away from home in past week: 8+
Total people: 9.5%
Aged 20 to 39: 16.0%
Aged 40 to 54: 10.0%
Aged 55 to 64: 9.1%
Aged 65 or older: 4.4%

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Flexible Consumer Behavior Survey, 2009-10

Minority Students by Region

In the nation as a whole, 48 percent of students enrolled in public elementary and secondary schools are Asian, black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here is the minority percentage by region...

Northeast: 40%
Midwest: 31%
South: 53%
West: 60%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2012

Who Shares an Email Address?

The older the couple, the more likely they are to share an email account. Among all Internet users in a committed relationship, 27 percent share an email address with their partner. Here is the percentage of couples with a joint email address by age...

Aged 18 to 29: 12%
Aged 30 to 49: 24%
Aged 50 to 64: 33%
Aged 65-plus: 47%

Source: Pew Research Internet Project, Couples, the Internet, and Social Media

Spending on Reading Material

The average household spent $109 on reading material in 2012, up slightly from the $105 spent in 2010 after adjusting for inflation. What contributed to this boost in spending on reading material after the steep 46 percent decline between 2000 and 2010? Digital book readers, according to a Demo Memo analysis of unpublished detailed spending data from the federal government's Consumer Expenditure Survey.

During an average quarter of 2012, nearly 2 percent of households bought a digital book reader. While that doesn't sound like much, it was a higher rate of purchasing than for personal digital audio players (such as iPods) and nearly as high a rate as for online gaming services. The result was a boost in spending on the overall reading category despite ongoing declines in spending on books, newspapers, and magazines.

The introduction of digital book readers explains why average household spending on reading material grew especially strongly among householders under age 55 during the 2010-to-2012 time period...

Percent change in average household spending on reading material, 2010-12 (in 2012 dollars)
Under age 25: 7.2%
Aged 25 to 34: 12.1%
Aged 35 to 44: 10.4%
Aged 45 to 54: 7.8%
Aged 55 to 64: 0.3%
Aged 65-plus: -4.4%

Now that so many more Americans own digital book readers, perhaps spending on books will begin to grow in the years ahead.

Will This Be the Bottom for Self-Employment?

The percentage of Americans who are self-employed shrinks a bit more nearly every year. Last year was no exception. In 2013, only 6.5 percent of the employed aged 16 or older were self-employed—yet another record low.  This figure was down from 7.0 percent in 2010 and 7.3 percent in 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But we might have seen the bottom for self-employment. Beginning this year, the Affordable Care Act makes health insurance available to all. America's entrepreneurs are now free to start businesses without the loss of health insurance and the threat of financial catastrophe. This time next year we will know whether 2013 was the end of the long decline in self-employment.

First-Time Homebuyers by Region: 2013

Typically, Americans buy their first home in their thirties. But first-time homebuyers are getting older, their age rising from early thirties to late thirties since the Great Recession. Among householders aged 30 to 34, only 48.1 percent owned their home in 2013, down from 57.4 percent in 2004 (the year when the overall homeownership rate peaked). Among householders aged 35 to 39, the 55.8 percent majority owned their home in 2013, but this was down from 66.2 percent in 2004.

By region, there is considerable variation in the age of first-time home buying. Here is the percentage of householders in their thirties who owned their home in 2013 (and the percentage point change since 2004)...

Aged 30 to 34
Northeast: 42.1% (-9.8)
Midwest: 57.9% (-7.1)
South: 49.8% (-9.0)
West: 40.6% (-11.5)

Aged 35 to 39
Northeast: 53.9% (-8.0)
Midwest: 63.4% (-10.8)
South: 56.6% (-11.3)
West: 48.7% (-10.1)

There is one bit of good news is these declining figures. We may have hit bottom—at least in the Midwest, where the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed 2 percentage points between 2012 and 2013.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Giving Up the Internet

How would you feel about giving up the Internet or your cell phone? When Pew's Internet Project asked Americans aged 18 or older how they would feel about giving up the Internet, telephones, or television, this was the percentage who said it would be very hard or impossible to give them up...

Internet: 46%
Cell phone: 44%
Television: 35%
Landline phone: 17%

Source: Pew Research Internet Project, The Web at 25 in the U.S.

Childhood Obesity and the Demographics of New Mothers

A new study has found a big drop in obesity among the nation's 2-to-5-year-olds, according to a New York Times article. The percentage of children in the age group who are obese fell from 14 percent in 2004 to 8 percent in 2012. This is good news, but no one can explain the decline. Some say it's due to more breastfeeding. Others say children are consuming fewer calories from sugar. First Lady Michelle Obama's efforts to improve children's nutrition are also cited as a reason. Here's a more likely explanation: the higher educational attainment of new mothers.

Between 2000 (when some of those 2-to-5-year-olds of 2004 were born) and 2010 (when some of those 2-to-5-year-olds of 2012 were born), the annual number of births in the United States declined as the Great Recession triggered a baby bust. Fewer women gave birth, and their demographics changed. New mothers in 2010 were much more educated than new mothers in 2000, according to the Census Bureau. The percentage of babies born to high school dropouts fell from 23 to 17 percent between 2000 and 2010. The percentage of babies born to women with college experience grew from 46 to 56 percent during those years.

It's a well known fact that educated people have better health. It should come as no surprise, then, that educated mothers have healthier children.

Homeownership in 2013

The nation's homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent in 2013, according to annual statistics released by the Census Bureau. The 2013 homeownership rate was down from 65.4 percent in 2012 and the all-time high of 69.0 in 2004. By age, 2013 homeownership rates (and the percentage point change since 2004) look like this...

Under age 25: 22.2% (-3.0)
Aged 25 to 29: 34.1% (-6.1)
Aged 30 to 34: 48.1% (-9.3)
Aged 35 to 39: 55.8% (-10.4)
Aged 40 to 44: 65.0% (-6.9)
Aged 45 to 54: 71.2% (-6.0)
Aged 55 to 64: 76.6% (-5.1)
Aged 65-plus: 80.8% (-0.3)

If homeownership rates by age were the same in 2013 as in 2004, then the overall rate would be a much higher 70.3 percent rather than 65.1. The United States would have nearly 6 million more homeowners—81 million rather than the 75 million of 2013. Among households headed by 30-to-39-year-olds, there would be 2 million more homeowners than there are today.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

The Bloat in Higher Education

Is "administrative bloat" a reason for the rising cost of college? According to an analysis of labor force trends at institutions of higher education, the bloat is real and it could be a factor in rising costs. Administrative positions are growing as a share of total institutional employment, while full-time faculty is shrinking as a share of employment at most types of schools. The analysis defines administrative positions as those that provide student, academic, or professional support such as vice presidents, provosts, financial analysts, human resources staff, computer administrators, lawyers, health care workers, and so on.

The number of full-time faculty per administrator declined at every type of school between 1990 and 2012, according to the analysis. At public four-year schools, the number of full-time faculty per administrator fell from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.1 in 2012. At public community colleges the ratio fell from 2.2 to 1.5. At private four-year colleges the figure fell from 1.3 to 0.8.

In an attempt to cut costs over the years, institutions of higher education have replaced full-time faculty with part-time instructors. Most college teachers today are part-timers. But much of the savings from faculty cuts have been spent on administrators, the report concludes.

Source: American Institutes for Research, Delta Cost Project, Labor Intensive or Labor Expensive?

Most Farmers Are Part-Timers

Among the nation's 2.1 million principal farm operators (the person primarily responsible for the day-to-day operation of the farm), most do not identify farming as their primary occupation. The 52 percent majority of principal farm operators say their primary occupation is something other than farming, according to the USDA's 2012 Census of Agriculture.

Economics explain the part-time nature of today's farmer. Seventy percent of farms have agricultural sales of less than $50,000 annually. The average age of farmers is 58.3.

Mobility Rate by Generation

Only 5.9 percent of baby boomers moved between March 2012 and March 2013, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's geographic mobility data. Mobility rates peak among young adults and fall with age. Here are the 2012-13 mobility rates by generation...

iGeneration (aged 1 to 18): 13.1%
Millennials (aged 19 to 36): 20.4%
Generation X (aged 37 to 48): 10.6%
Baby Boomers (aged 49 to 67): 5.9%
Older Americans (aged 68-plus): 3.5%

Among the nation's 74 million boomers, only 4 million moved between 2012 and 2013. Among the movers, 61 percent remained in the same county. Only 15 percent crossed a state line.

Wives Are Better Educated than Husbands

Among the nation's married couples, wives are more educated than husbands in 20.7 percent. This figure exceeds, for the first time, the 19.9 percent in which husbands are more educated than wives, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data.

Among newlyweds, the trend is even more pronounced, with 27 percent of wives more educated than husbands and only 15 percent of husbands more educated than wives. Despite their greater educational attainment, says Pew, only 39 percent of better-educated newlywed wives earned more than their husbands. The 58 percent majority earned less.

Source: Pew Research Center, Record Share of Wives Are More Educated than their Husbands

Retirement: Does Health Matter?

Poor health leads to an earlier retirement, and a National Bureau of Economic Research paper documents just how much health matters. In a simulation of the effect of health on retirement based on data from the Health and Retirement Study, the analysis computes the percentage of men aged 54 or older who work full-time, part-time, or not at all by self-reported health status.

The differences are striking. Among men aged 62, the percentage who work full-time is 44 percent for those in good health, 39 percent for those in fair health, 18 percent for those in poor health, and 4 percent for those in terrible health. Conversely, the percentage of men aged 62 who are fully retired rises from 41 percent for those in good health to 46 percent for those in fair health, 68 percent for those in poor health, and 87 percent for those in terrible health.

The study also examines various types of health problems and behaviors to determine their impact on retirement. Smoking, for example, reduces the average age at retirement by four to five months.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Role of Health in Retirement, NBER Working Paper 19902

The Boomer Effect on the Labor Force

Between December 2007 and December 2013, the labor force participation rate of people aged 16 or older fell from 66.0 to 62.8 percent. How much of that decline is due to the Great Recession and how much is due to the aging of the large baby-boom generation?

A substantial 40 percent of the decline is due to the aging of the baby-boom generation, according to an analysis of the data by Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Although boomers are staying in the workforce longer, the labor force participation rate of older workers is still less than half the rate of prime-age individuals, notes Munnell. The growing presence of Americans aged 55 or older in the population is reducing the overall labor force participation rate. "Regardless of general economic factors, we should expect to see labor force participation continue to decline for the remainder of this decade due to the retiring of baby boomers," she concludes.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, The Impact of Aging Baby Boomers on Labor Force Participation

Sick in Bed

Average number of days per year Americans spend more than half of the day in bed because of illness or injury, by age...

Total adults: 4.0
Aged 18 to 44: 2.9
Aged 45 to 64: 5.1
Aged 65 to 74: 4.2
Aged 75-plus: 6.0

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2012

Eating Out: Meals per Week

Question: "During the past 7 days, how many meals did you get that were prepared away from home such as restaurants, fast food places, food stands, grocery stores, or from vending machines?" Among Americans aged 20 or older, these are their answers...

None: 19.3%
One: 17.0%
Two: 17.1%
Three: 13.1%
Four: 8.5%
Five: 7.3%
Six: 3.0%
Seven: 5.1%
Eight or more: 9.5%

Since the last time this question was asked in 2007-08, a statistically significant change occurred in only one category: the percentage who got eight or more meals away from home fell by 3 percentage points, from 12.5 to 9.5 percent.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Flexible Consumer Behavior Survey, 2009-10

Changing Attitudes toward Racial Discrimination

This is a rare: 45 years of survey results on the attitudes of blacks and whites toward racial discrimination. Harris has accomplished this rare achievement. By pulling 1969, 1972, and 2008 attitudinal data from its archives and updating them with a 2014 survey, we can see how much or how little things have changed.

Not surprisingly, on every issue—from how they are treated by police to the quality of the education they receive in public schools and the wages they are paid—blacks are more likely than whites to think blacks are discriminated against. The black-white attitudes gap existed in 1969 and it still exists today. When the 2014 survey asked whether blacks are discriminated against in getting full equality, 78 percent of blacks and only 41 percent of whites said yes. In 1969 the figures were 84 and 43 percent, respectively. When the 2014 survey asked whether blacks are discriminated against in the wages they are paid, 63 percent of blacks and only 25 percent of whites said yes. In 1969 the figures were 73 and 22 percent, respectively.

Clearly, blacks and whites do not see eye to eye on issues of racial discrimination. But when comparing results from 1969 with those from 2014 a bit of good news emerges: the attitudes gap is shrinking. In 1969, black and white attitudes were separated by an average of 44 percentage points. In 2014, black and white attitudes are separated by an average gap of 34 points. That's progress of a sort.

Here is an example of how attitudes have converged over the past 45 years. When asked whether blacks are discriminated against in the way they are treated as human beings, this is the percentage of blacks and whites who said "yes" in 2014 and 1969...

2014
Blacks: 71%
Whites: 39%
Difference: 32 percentage points

1969
Blacks: 77%
Whites: 35%
Difference: 42 percentage points

Source: Harris Interactive, Racial Discrimination: How Far Have We Come?

Health Insurance Trends: ACA Reducing the Uninsured

A January 2014 Gallup survey has documented a downward tick in the percentage of Americans without health insurance. On January 1st, health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act took effect for millions of Americans—enough to put a dent in the statistics.

The percentage of all Americans who do not have health insurance fell from 17.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 16.0 percent in January 2014. The biggest drop in the uninsured occurred among 26-to-34-year-olds. In the age group, 25.7 percent were uninsured in January, down from 30.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013.

Source: Gallup, U.S. Uninsured Rate Drops so Far in First Quarter of 2014

Young Adults Are Splitting into Haves and Have-Nots

Young adults are splitting into Haves and Have-Nots based on their education, according to a Pew Research Center report. While this is a long-term trend, Pew's analysis of Census Bureau income data for people aged 25 to 32 shows just how much more important a bachelor's degree is to millennials than it was for generation Xers or boomers.

First, the good news. Today's 25-to-32-year-olds with a bachelor's degree have a higher median household income than did their generation X or baby-boom counterparts at the same age. For college-educated millennials, median household income in 2012 was $89,079. This compares with a median of $86,237 for gen Xers when they were 25-to-32-years-old, $81,686 for younger boomers at that age, and $71,916 for older boomers as young adults. (Note: household income is in 2012 dollars and adjusted for changes in household size.) In other words, the standard of living of college-educated young adults has improved over the decades.

Now the bad news. Today's 25-to-32-year-olds with no more than a high school diploma are decidedly worse off than their generation X or baby-boom counterparts at the same age. Millennials with no more than a high school diploma had a median household income of $39,842 in 2012. This compares with a larger $45,164 for gen Xers when they were 25-to-32-years-old, $47,986 for younger boomers at that age, and $50,097 for older boomers as young adults. In other words, the standard of living of young adults who do not go to college has dropped, their median household income now 20 percent below what it was a few decades ago.

The household income gap between young adults with a bachelor's degree and those with no more than a high school diploma has more than doubled, growing from $22,000 in 1979 to $49,000 in 2012. That growing gap explains why 22 percent of today's 25-to-32-year-olds with no more than a high school diploma are living in poverty (up from 7 percent in 1979) and 18 percent are living with their parents (up from 9 percent in 1979).

For more on the growing importance of a college education for young adults, see Pew Research Center's report The Rising Cost of Not Going to College.

The Antidepressant Boom

Maybe it was the Great Recession, or pharmaceutical advertising, or the advice of doctors. Whatever the reason, the result is clear: a booming market for antidepressants. The number of Americans who purchased an antidepressant grew by an enormous 65 percent in ten years—rising from 18.5 million in 2000 to 30.6 million in 2010. Overall, nearly 10 percent of Americans purchased a prescribed antidepressant in 2010, up from 7 percent in 2000. Here are the 2010 percentages by age...

Percent purchasing a prescribed antidepressant in 2010
Total people: 9.9%
Under age 18: 1.3%
Aged 18 to 44: 8.8%
Aged 45 to 64: 16.2%
Aged 65-plus: 16.2%

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Statistical Brief 430, Trends in Antidepressant Utilization and Expenditures in the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population by Age, 2000 and 2010

The Aging of Genius

Geniuses are getting older. That's the conclusion of a National Bureau of Economic Research literature review and analysis. During the 20th century, the average age of great achievement (defined as winning a Nobel Prize or inventing a new technology) increased by six years according to a study, cited in the NBER paper, of 544 Nobel winners and 286 technological innovators.

One theory posited for the rising age of scientific genius is the growing length of time required for training. "To the extent that expertise over some range of existing knowledge is an essential input to the creative process in science, the expansion of extant theories, facts, methods, et cetera, can create a rising 'burden of knowledge' on successive generations of scientists," say the authors.

The aging of genius can mean less genius overall and may even change the direction of scientific progress, according to the authors' analysis. "There is, in effect, less time for genius to act like one," they explain. In addition, "if early life-cycle innovative capacity is increasingly truncated by training demands, then it is possible that the nature of achievements would shift from conceptual toward experimental reasoning. Thus contributions may become increasingly biased against deep, conceptual novelty."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Age and Scientific Genius, NBER Working Paper 19866

Under Adult Supervision

One in every 35 adults in the United States is in prison, jail, on probation or parole.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Correctional Populations in the United States, 2012

The Demographic Engine of City Growth

Is the recent growth of cities a consequence of the economic shock experienced by America's young adults? The Great Recession idled millions of millennials, causing them to postpone marriage and childbearing. Without the nuclear family motive for moving to the suburbs, young adults are staying put in urban centers and boosting city populations. Between 2010 and 2012, the nation's largest cities (with populations of 50,000 or more) grew 2.1 percent, nearly double the 1.1 percent growth everywhere else. Cities may be growing not so much because they are attracting young adults, but because they are no longer losing young families to the suburbs. Take a look at the facts:

• The  median age at first marriage is at a record high (29 for men; 27 for women). 
• The fertility rate is at a record low (62.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44).
• The number of nuclear families (married couples with children under age 18) headed by young adults fell by more than 1 million between 2007 and 2013. Nuclear families now account for only 24 percent of households headed by people under age 35.

Will cities lose their luster as the economy recovers and young adults revert to a more typical pattern of marriage and childbearing? Maybe, but there are reasons to doubt a return to the good old days. The biggest problem is student loan debt, shifting the age of first-time home buying from the early thirties to the late thirties. Only 37 percent of householders under age 35 are homeowners, the lowest homeownership rate on record for the age group. By the time they can afford to buy a home, younger generations will be accustomed to city life and may not be willing to trade urban amenities for suburban sprawl.

The Graduate School Rush

Now that a bachelor's degree is as common as a high school diploma used to be, Americans are in a mad rush to get even more education.

That explains why the number of people with at least some graduate level education grew by an astounding 52 percent between 2000 and 2013, rising from 23 million to 36 million. Today, 32 percent of Americans aged 25 or older have at least a bachelor's degree, 17 percent have graduate school experience, and 12 percent have a graduate degree.

Source: Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2013

Coming Soon: The Geography of Internet Use

We're soon going to know a whole lot more about the geography of smartphone and Internet use. Beginning in the fall of 2014, the Census Bureau's American Community Survey will provide information on computer ownership by type of computer (desktop, laptop, smartphone, etc.) and Internet subscription by type of connection (DSL, cable, fiber-optic, mobile broadband, etc.) for the nation, states, and smaller geographies such as cities and counties.

While other organizations track computer and smartphone ownership (such as Pew Internet and American Life Project), only the massive American Community Survey can nail the local geography of Internet access. The Census Bureau's Current Population Survey has long asked about computers and the Internet, but the information collected is limited and provided only for the nation and states. According to the latest Current Population Survey report (with data for 2012), 79 percent of households have a computer at home, 75 percent use the Internet at home, and 45 percent of adults have a smartphone. The 2012 data release includes several data tables and an interesting infographic (pdf) showing trends in computer ownership, Internet access, and individual smartphone use.

The Current Population Survey first asked Americans about computer ownership in 1984, when 8 percent of households owned a computer. A question about Internet access was first included in the Current Population Survey in 1997, when 37 percent of households owned a computer and 18 percent had Internet access at home. The much larger American Community Survey will better track not only device ownership, but also the local geography of Internet access.

Source: Census Bureau, Computer and Internet Access in the United States: 2012

The Cost of College is Not Rising

Everyone knows that the cost of college has gone through the roof. But everyone might be wrong. An analysis of the net cost of college by Scott A. Wolla of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finds that the net cost of college has not changed over the past decade—after adjusting for inflation and financial aid.

Although average college tuition and fees climbed from $24,070 in 2003-04 to $30,090 in 2013-14, the net cost (minus financial aid) fell from $13,600 to $12,460 during those years (in 2013 dollars), reports Wolla. The reason for the difference between the sticker price and the net price is price discrimination.

"Price discrimination allows colleges to charge many different prices for essentially the same service. This practice benefits students from low-income families," explains Wolla. In other words, middle and upper-income families are subsidizing the cost for low-income families. But there is no free lunch, he says. "The cost burden has become increasingly progressive as wealthier families are paying more for education and subsiding needier students."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Page One Economics Newsletter, "The Rising Cost of College: Tuition, Financial Aid, and Price Discrimination"

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2013

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2013: 48.6%

Finally, some good news. The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed 1.1 percentage points between the third and fourth quarters of 2013, to 48.6 percent. Although still below 50 percent, the trend is in the right direction. 

The nation's first-time homebuyers have long been 30-to-34-year-olds, the age group in which homeownership becomes the norm—rising above 50 percent. Until the Great Recession, that is. Beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. It bottomed out at 46.9 percent in the third quarter of 2012. The recent uptick in the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds is welcome news for the housing industry.

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 65.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, slightly higher than the 65.2 percent of one year ago.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

We Will Ask if You Voted

That's the way to increase voter turnout, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. In an experiment designed to determine the effect of social pressure on voting behavior, researchers discovered that social image plays a role in voter turnout. "People vote because others will ask," say the researchers. If people are informed before an election that they will be asked after the election whether they voted, more turn out to vote.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Voting to Tell Others, NBER Working Paper 19832

Why Everyone Needs Health Insurance

A new report shows just how big a problem the lack of health insurance turns out to be. Not only are the uninsured at risk of financial ruin, but so are their families. 

In 2012, more than one in four (27 percent) American families experienced a financial burden from medical care. "The family perspective is important to consider when examining financial risk because significant expenses for one family member may adversely affect the whole family," explains the National Center for Health Statistics in Financial Burden of Medical Care: A Family Perspective. "Health insurance coverage is one way for a family to mitigate financial risk associated with health care costs."

Among families in which all members have health insurance, 21 percent experienced the financial burden of medical care in the past year. Among families in which some are insured and some are not, fully 46 percent had a problem paying for medical care—meaning they had difficulty paying a medical bill, they currently have medical bills being paid over time, or they currently have medical bills they can't pay at all.

The Great Recession Changed Eating

The Great Recession may have dinged our wallets, but it improved our diets. Working-age Americans (those born from 1946 through 1985) cut their calories and ate fewer fast-food meals in 2009-10 than in 2007-08, according to data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Total daily calorie consumption fell during those years, as did daily calories from fast food. Consumption of saturated fat and cholesterol was also down. The number of fast food meals declined, and the number of family meals prepared at home increased. These changes in eating habits were not solely due to the decline in household income during the Great Recession, says the USDA, but also due to the increased time available for shopping and preparing food at home.

Are these changes permanent, or will we revert to our bad habits as the economy improves? The USDA analysis suggests that some of the change may be permanent because a growing share of consumers are paying attention to nutrition. Between 2007-08 and 2009-10, the percentage of working-age adults who say they use the Nutrition Fact Panel always/most of the time when buying food climbed from 34 to 42 percent.

"Diet quality may not decline if consumers continue to pay closer attention to the nutritional quality of the food they consume," concludes the USDA. Even if we eat out more often—as seems likely— there's hope. According to the report, "the 2010 Affordable Care Act mandates that restaurant chains with more than 20 locations list the caloric content of each standard menu item, which would make it easier for consumers to identify lower calorie and otherwise healthier choices when eating away from home."

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Changes in Eating Patterns and Diet Quality among Working-Age Adults, 2005-2010

Household Income Stable in December 2013

That's a wrap, folks. Yet another month of income stability brings 2013 to an end with no change in median household income, according to estimates by Sentier Research. The December 2013 median of $52,297 is not statistically different from last month's median or the median in December 2012, after adjusting for inflation. Sentier's median household income estimates come from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey, providing a preview of the official annual figure that will be released by the bureau next summer. Now you know (before everyone else) that median household income in 2013 will be pretty much the same as it was in 2012.

Although median household income has not changed significantly in the past year, the December 2013 median was 2.4 percent higher than than the $51,079 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. "We still have a significant amount of ground to make up to get back to where we were before," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "but at least we have shown some improvement since the low point." 

Median household income in December 2013 was 4.7 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.4 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.5 percent lower than the January 2000 median.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends Series: December 2013

Part-Time Professors

Among the nation's 1.6 million college teachers, only 51 percent are employed full-time. Forty-nine percent of college teachers are part-time workers. Here is the percentage of part-time professors by type of school...

Four-year schools
36% of teachers at public schools
48% of teachers at private, nonprofit schools
85% of teachers at private, for-profit schools

Two-year schools
69% of teachers at public schools
51% of teaches at private, nonprofit schools
53% of teachers at private for-profit schools

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, 2004-09; and Employees in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012

States with Highest Domestic Migration Rates, 2012-13

The mobility rate of Americans has plunged over the past few decades, falling to historic lows in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Nevertheless, Americans are still moving and some states are attracting more of those movers than others. Here are the 10 states with the highest rates of net domestic migration (meaning more U.S. residents are moving into the state than out of the state per 1,000 population) between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013...

1. North Dakota

2. District of Columbia

3. Colorado

4. South Carolina

5. South Dakota

6. Montana

7. Florida

8. Nevada

9. Wyoming

10. Texas

Overall, 21 states and the District of Columbia had positive net domestic migration rates between 2012 and 2013. The five states with the largest negative net domestic migration rates were New Mexico, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and Alaska.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Planning to Spend More, except on Housing

Americans are planning to spend more on a variety of big-ticket items, according to the latest Harris survey. A growing percentage are planning to take a vacation, buy a computer, or buy/lease a new car or truck. Fewer are trying to cut spending on entertainment or restaurants.

Given the greater optimism about spending on a range of items, it is interesting to note what hasn't improved: the outlook for housing. When asked whether they planned to move in the next six months, only 18 percent answered yes—the same percentage as in 2008. When asked whether they planned to buy a house or condo in the next six months, only 8 percent said yes compared with 10 percent in 2008.

Source: Harris Interactive, Signs of Optimism—or at least, Acceptance—in American Spending Trends

Alternative Credentials Can Boost Earnings

Is it time to expand our notion of what constitutes higher education? According to the Census Bureau, the answer might be yes. In a first, the Census Bureau has collected and analyzed data on Americans who hold educational credentials other than an academic degree—called "alternative credentials." These include certifications through an examination process, licenses that must be renewed periodically, and educational certificates.

The number of adults with alternative credentials is substantial. In 2012, fully 46 million Americans aged 18 or older had professional certifications or licenses (22 percent of adults) and 19 million had educational certificates (9 percent). Including these credentials in measures of educational attainment would change our understanding of who has post-secondary education. Among the 59 million Americans with no more than a high school diploma, 11.2 million have a professional certification or license. "If this alternative credential were incorporated into an expanded measure of education, these 11.2 million people might be recategorized into the 'more than high school' category, representing a shift of almost 5 percent of the adult population," explains the Census Bureau.

Do alternative credentials boost earnings? Only for workers without a bachelor's degree. Among full-time workers with a high school diploma and no alternative credentials, median monthly earnings in 2012 were $2,500 per month. For workers with an educational certificate, earnings were a higher $2,917 per month. For those with a professional certification or license, earnings were $3,053 per month. For workers with both types of alternative credentials, earnings topped out at $3,200 per month. "At low levels of regular education, there is routinely an earnings premium for a professional certification or license or an educational certificate," says the Census Bureau.

Source: Census Bureau, Measuring Alternative Educational Credentials: 2012

Print Books Still Popular among Young Adults

Percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who read a print book in the past year: 73%
Percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds who read an e-book in the past year: 37%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, E-Reading Rises as Device Ownership Jumps

The Crime Problem

Percentage of Americans who think crime is a "very" or "extremely" serious problem...

In the United States: 55%
In their local area: 13%

Source: Gallup, More Say Crime is Serious Problem in U.S. than Locally

How Many Movies?

Two out of three Americans say they're going to the movies less often than they did a few years ago, according to a Harris survey. By generation, here is the percentage of adults who went to a movie in the past year (and the average number of movies seen during the year)…

68% of total adults (4.8 movies)
83% of millennials (6.3 movies)
73% of generation Xers (5.3 movies)
59% of baby boomers (3.6 movies)
44% of older Americans (3.2 movies)

Source: Harris Interactive, The Silver Screen Slump: Americans Say They're Going to the Movies Less Often

Why This Housing Boom is Different

Because homeownership has declined in most age groups, particularly among householders under age 35, and because the least expensive houses have seen the biggest price increases, the St. Louis Fed concludes: "The current housing boom is the first nationwide boom since the postwar era not driven by increased demand for owner-occupied housing."

What's behind the boom? Private and institutional investors are buying low-priced houses and turning them into rental units.

High School Sophomores 10 Years Later

To determine how today's young adults are faring, the National Center for Education Statistics has been tracking a representative sample of 2002 high school sophomores over the past decade. The status of these young adults in 2012, at age 26, reveals how hard it has been to grow up during the Great Recession.

More than 80 percent of the high school sophomores of 2002 completed high school and entered a post-secondary education program. A decade later, 33 percent had a bachelor's degree, 32 percent had some college but no degree, and 19 percent had a certificate or associate's degree. Sixty percent of those who entered a post-secondary education program borrowed money to pay for school.

Among those with a bachelor's degree, 78 percent were employed full-time in 2012 but only 33 percent earned $40,000 or more. One in five had lost a job since January 2006. Fully 46 percent had debts of $30,000 or more. The 52 percent majority were single—neither married nor living with a partner. About one in five lived with their parents, and most lived within 100 miles of their 2002 residence. These are the success stories.

Among the young adults with some college but no degree, a smaller 64 percent had a full-time job in 2012 and only 14 percent earned $40,000 or more. More than 40 percent had lost a job since January 2006. Twenty-two percent had debts of $30,000 or more, despite having no diploma to show for it. More than one in four lived with their parents and most lived within 10 miles of their 2002 residence.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002): A First Look at High School Sophomores 10 Years Later

Who Is A Boss?

Percentage of workers who say they are the boss or manager where they work…

Men: 16%
Women: 10%

Non-Hispanic whites: 16%
Non-Hispanic blacks: 6%
Hispanics: 4%

Baby boomers: 17%
Gen Xers: 16%
Millennials: 4%

Source: Pew Research Center, Why It's Great to be the Boss

One in Three Americans Experienced Poverty

In a three-year time period, nearly one-third of Americans experienced poverty, according to a Census Bureau report. During the 36 months from January 2009 through December 2011, fully 31.6 percent of the population was poor for at least two months.

By race and Hispanic origin, the percentage of the population in poverty for at least two months ranged from a high of 49.6 percent among Hispanics to a low of 25.4 percent among non-Hispanic whites. By age the percentage was as high as 40.6 percent among children, 31.0 percent among adults aged 18 to 64, and 15.7 percent among the elderly. By educational attainment, the 50.6 percent majority of those without a high school diploma experienced at least a two-month spell of poverty. Even among those with some college education, a substantial 22.9 percent experienced at least two months of poverty during the three-year time period under analysis.

Among those who experienced poverty, the median length of a poverty spell was 6.6 months. Only 3.5 percent were poor for the entire 36 months.

Source: Census Bureau, Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Poverty, 2009-2011

Black Smartphone Ownership by Age

The 56 percent majority of African Americans own a smartphone, according to a Pew Internet and American Life Project report. This figure is not statistically different from the 53 percent ownership rate among non-Hispanic whites.

The Pew report compares black and white technology use and device ownership. The analysis finds blacks less likely than whites to have a broadband connection at home (62 versus 74 percent) but equally likely to own a smartphone. Among young adults, blacks are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to use Twitter (40 versus 28 percent).

African American smartphone ownership by age
Aged 18 to 29: 85%
Aged 30 to 49: 67%
Aged 50 to 64: 41%
Aged 65-plus: 18%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, African Americans and Technology Use

Desktop Computer Ownership Declines

Ownership of a desktop computer is becoming less common, according to a Gallup survey. Only 57 percent of Americans owned a desktop computer in 2013, down from 65 percent in 2005 as young adults increasingly turn to laptops, tablets, and smartphones for their computing needs.

Desktop computer ownership is more common among Americans aged 65 or older (58 percent) than among 18-to-29-year-olds (41 percent). Laptop computer ownership is more common among young adults (79 percent) than people aged 65 or older (41 percent).

Tablet computer ownership is more similar, with 34 percent of young adults and 25 percent of the elderly owning a tablet computer. The biggest gap is in smartphone ownership: 88 percent of young adults own a smartphone versus only 25 percent of the elderly.

Source: Gallup, Americans' Tech Tastes Change with Times

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2022

By 2022, non-Hispanic whites will account for only 61 percent of the 163 million workers in the American labor force, down from 66 percent in 2012. The number of non-Hispanic white workers will shrink by 2.5 million during the decade. In contrast, the number of Hispanics in the labor force will grow by 6.8 million, blacks by 1.8 million, and Asians by 1.9 million.

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects what the labor force will look like in ten years. According to the latest projections, this is what the 2022 labor force will look like...

60.8% non-Hispanic white
19.1% Hispanic
12.4% black
  6.2% Asian

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2012-2022

Household Income Stable in November 2013

Another month of income stability: median annual household income was unchanged in November 2013, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The November median of $52,163 was not statistically different from the October 2013 median, after adjusting for inflation. Sentier's median household income estimates come from its analysis of the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. They provide a preview of the official annual figure that will be released by the bureau next summer. 

Median household income has not changed significantly in the past year, reports Sentier. But the November 2013 median was 2.4 percent higher than than the $50,927 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. "We still have a significant amount of ground to make up to get back to where we were before," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "but at least we have shown some improvement since the low point." 

Median household income in November 2013 was 4.6 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.4 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.5 percent lower than the January 2000 median.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends Series: November 2013

More Older Men at Work in 2022

The labor force participation rate of older men is projected to rise substantially by 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among men aged 65 or older, labor force participation will rise to 27.2 percent by 2022, up from 23.6 percent in 2012 and 16.1 percent in 1992. Here are actual and projected labor force participation rates of older men by age in 1992, 2012, and 2022...

Men aged 62 to 64
2022: 60.5
2012: 54.6
1992: 46.2

Men aged 65 to 69
2022: 41.6
2012: 37.1
1992: 26.0

Men aged 70 to 74
2022: 28.8
2012: 24.2
1992: 15.0

Labor force participation will rise among women too, but their rates will remain below those of men. Despite these increases, the overall labor force participation rate for Americans aged 16 or older will fall from 63.7 to 61.6 percent between 2012 and 2022. Behind the decline is the aging of the population.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2012-2022

Fastest Growing States, 2010 to 2013

Between 2010 and 2013, the U.S. population as a whole grew 2.2 percent to 316 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 7.3 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state: Rhode Island's population fell by 0.1 percent during those years. These were the 10 fastest growing states from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013...

1. North Dakota, 7.3%
2. District of Columbia, 6.8%
3. Texas, 4.8%
4. Utah, 4.6%
5. Colorado, 4.4%
6. Florida, 3.8%
7. South Dakota, 3.5%
8. Arizona, 3.4%
9. Washington, 3.4%
10. Wyoming, 3.3%

Source: Census Bureau, State Population Estimates