Big-City Counties Grew the Most

The nation's most urban counties continue to attract Americans by the millions, according to the Census Bureau's 2014 county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2014 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents strong city growth (the bigger, the better) and unrelenting rural decline.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,142 counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2014 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2014 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 4.2% for rank 1 counties, in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 3.0% for rank 2 counties, in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 2.1% for rank 3 counties, in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.1% for rank 4 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
5. 1.4% for rank 5 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
6. -0.7% for rank 6 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
7. -0.5% for rank 7 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
8. -1.4% for rank 8 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop less than 2,500
9. -0.9% for rank 9 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro, urban pop less than 2,500

The most urban counties (a 1 on the scale) grew the fastest between 2010 and 2014. The most rural counties (8 and 9 on the scale) experienced the biggest declines.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, Population Estimates, County Totals: Vintage 2014

Investigating the Hispanic Paradox

Hispanics live longer than non-Hispanic Whites or Blacks, despite the fact that they are less educated and have lower incomes. This phenomenon is called the Hispanic Paradox. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, Hispanic life expectancy at birth was 81.4 years in 2011 versus 78.8 years for non-Hispanic Whites and 75.3 years for Blacks.

An investigation into the Hispanic Paradox reveals an even bigger mystery. By comparing the life expectancy of foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics, a study in Demography shows foreign-born Hispanics to have the advantage while U.S.-born Hispanics have about the same life expectancy as Whites. "Why is this foreign-born Hispanic mortality advantage erased for U.S.-born Hispanics?" ask the researchers. "Negative acculturation may deteriorate the positive health behaviors among Hispanic immigrants over time and across generations," they conclude.

Source: Demography, "Hispanic Older Adult Mortality in the United States: New Estimates and an Assessment of Factors Shaping the Hispanic Paradox" ($39.95)

Stress is the Norm for New Mothers

In the year before they give birth, 71 percent of new mothers experience what the CDC calls a "stressful life event." The government defines 13 types of stressful life events and categorizes them into four types: financial (moved to a new address, lost job, partner lost job, unable to pay bills); emotional (family member ill and hospitalized, someone close died); partner-associated (separation/divorce, argue more than usual with partner/husband, husband/partner said he did not want pregnancy); and traumatic (homeless, involved in physical fight, partner went to jail, someone close had a problem with drinking/drugs).

The average new mother experiences 1.8 stressful life events in the year before her infants' birth. The 51 percent majority experiences a financial stressor, 30 percent an emotional stressor, 29 percent a partner-associated stressor, and 18 percent a traumatic stressor. Most women are vulnerable to stressful life events, but some are more vulnerable than others. Fully 80 percent of new mothers under age 25, for example, experienced one or more stressors compared with a smaller but still substantial 63 percent of new mothers aged 30 or older. Among the least educated, 76 percent experienced a stressor. Among the best-educated, the figure was 60 percent.

Source: CDC, Stressful Life Events Experienced by Women in the Year Before Their Infants' Births—United States, 2000-2010

Millions Want to Move

A substantial 9.6 percent of American households say they want to move, according to a Census Bureau study of residential mobility. But few actually follow through on that desire. With geographic mobility at a record low, the timing could not be better for an analysis of who wants to move and what they do about it.

Among the 11 million householders who said they wanted to move in 2010, only 18 percent actually moved in the following 12 months. And as fate would have it, millions of householders who did not express a desire to move in 2010 ended up moving, although at a lower rate (10 percent). Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the Census Bureau analyzed the characteristics of those who wanted to move in 2010 and those who did move in the following 12 months. Among the many characteristics examined in the report, age was one of the most important. Americans under age 35 are most likely to want to move (14.6 percent wanted to move in 2010), and they are also most likely to actually move (27.8 percent moved between 2010 and 2011). Many of the households that ended up moving, however, were not the ones who wanted to move, and many of those who wanted to move were in the same residence a year later. 

Many people change their minds about wanting to move. The 56 percent majority of those who said they wanted to move in 2010 but stayed put no longer expressed a desire to move when re-interviewed in 2011. "Desiring to move because of residential dissatisfaction appeared to be dynamic," explains the Census Bureau's Peter J. Mateyka, "with many respondents' reports of desiring to move changing one year later, despite living in the same residence."

Source: Census Bureau, Desire to Move and Residential Mobility: 2010-2011

Crossing the "Freedom Threshold"

When do people cross the "Freedom Threshold," able to choose where they want to live free from the constraints of work and family? According to a Merrill Lynch survey, they cross that threshold at age 61. The survey, conducted in partnership with Age Wave, examines the housing choices of retirees. Among the questions included in the survey, respondents were asked whether they agreed with the following two statements:

• Where I live is determined by life responsibilities, such as family or work obligations.
• At this point in my life, I am free to choose where I most want to live.

The percentage who feel free to choose where they want to live climbs above the 50 percent "Freedom Threshold" at age 61. Most people aged 61 or older feel free. Most younger do not. 

Source: Merrill Lynch, Home in Retirement: More Freedom, New Choices

Geographic Mobility, 2013-14

Many will be disappointed with the latest report on the nation's geographic mobility. Fewer Americans moved between 2013 and 2014 than in the previous year, and the mobility rate fell to a record low. Although the Census Bureau calls the trend in mobility "stable," the numbers are not good news for housing and other industries awaiting the return of the mobile American.

Only 11.5 percent of people aged 1 or older moved from one house to another between March 2013 and March 2014—an all-time low. The number who moved fell by 237,000 between 2012-13 and 2013-14. Here is the trend in the mobility rate since 2006-07, before the start of the Great Recession…

Geographic mobility rate
2013-14: 11.5%
2012-13: 11.7%
2011-12: 12.0%
2010-11: 11.6%
2009-10: 12.5%
2008-09: 12.5%
2007-08: 11.9%
2006-07: 13.2%

The mobility rate fell slightly for both homeowners and renters. Among homeowners, only 5.0 percent moved between 2013 and 2014. While this rate is above the record low of 4.7 percent recorded in the years 2010-11 and 2011-12, it remains far below the 7 to 9 percent that was typical in the the years prior to the Great Recession. Renters account for the 71 percent majority of movers. Among renters, 24.5 percent moved between 2013 and 2014, an all-time low. Before the Great Recession, the renter mobility rate typically exceeded 30 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, Geographic Mobility: 2013 to 2014

Majority of Public Supports Legalization of Marijuana

The majority of Americans now support the legalization of marijuana, according to results from the 2014 General Social Survey. Fully 55.4 percent of people aged 18 or older favor legalizing marijuana, up from 46.9 percent in 2012 and just 32.9 percent in 2000. Nearly every demographic segment favors legalization, with Millennials most supportive...

Percent in favor of legalizing marijuana by generation
Millennials (20-37): 65%
Gen Xers (38-49): 52%
Boomers (50-68): 57%
Older Americans: 36%

Source: 2014 General Social Survey, Computer-assisted Survey Methods Program of the University of California, Berkeley

Big Decline in Consumption of Fresh Potatoes

Over the decades, Americans have been eating fewer fresh potatoes. Behind the decline in fresh potato consumption is the greater availability of processed potatoes (especially frozen), according to the USDA, as well as the growing popularity of low-carb diets.

Pounds of fresh potatoes consumed per capita
2014: 26.8
2010: 27.8
2000: 35.5
1990: 35.2
1980: 38.5
1970: 46.6

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Americans Are Eating Fewer Potatoes and Less Cabbage than Previous Generations

Educational Attainment of the Labor Force in 2014

Among the nation's 135 million workers aged 25 or older in the civilian labor force, 50 million had a bachelor's degree or more education—37 percent of the total. By race and Hispanic origin, this is the percentage of workers with a bachelor's degree...

60% of Asians
42% of non-Hispanic Whites
27% of Blacks
19% of Hispanics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Attitudes toward Gay Marriage, 2004 to 2014

When asked whether they agree or disagree with the statement, "Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another," the 57 percent majority of Americans agree. The change in attitudes toward gay marriage has been swift...

Percent in favor of gay marriage
2014: 56.7%
2012: 48.9%
2010: 46.5%
2008: 39.2%
2006: 35.4%
2004: 30.8%

Among Millennials (aged 20 to 37 in 2014), the 70 percent majority supports gay marriage. The figure is 55 percent among Gen Xers (aged 38 to 49) and 51 percent among Boomers (aged 50 to 68). Among the oldest Americans (aged 69 or older), only 39 percent agree.

Source: General Social Survey, 2004 to 2014

Homeownership Rate of Householders Aged 30 to 34 by Region: 2004 to 2014

The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 fell by more than 10 percentage points between 2004 (the year the nation's homeownership rate peaked) and 2014. Historically, 30-to-34-year-olds had been the nation's first-time homebuyers, the age group in which the homeownership rate climbed above 50 percent. But between 2004 and 2014 the homeownership rate of the age group fell from well above 50 percent (57.4) to well below (47.1). No longer is 30-to-34 the age of first-time home buying, except in the Midwest...

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34
Northeast
2014: 41.8%
2004: 51.9%
Change: -10.1 percentage points

Midwest
2014: 57.6%
2004: 65.0%
Change: -7.4 percentage points

South
2014: 47.7%
2004: 58.8%
Change: -11.1 percentage points

West
2014: 39.9%
2004: 52.1%
Change: -12.2 percentage points

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Married Three or More Times

Among Americans aged 15 or older, 52.3 percent have married only once, 13.5 percent have married twice, and 3.6 percent have married three or more times. Those most likely to have married three or more times are the oldest members of the baby-boom generation. Among people in their sixties, fully 9.1 percent of men and 7.6 percent of women have married at least three times.

Source: Census Bureau, Remarriage in the United States

63% of Americans Live in a City

Nearly two out of three Americans (63 percent) live in a city, according to the Census Bureau. Cities are defined by their legal corporate limits. They differ from metropolitan areas, which are defined by the Office of Management and Budget and consist of counties with urban populations of 50,000 or more. The nation has more cities (19,508) than metro areas (381).

Between 2010 and 2013, the population of the nation's cities grew 3.1 percent—greater than the 2.4 percent growth rate for the nation as a whole. City growth occurs not just because of population gains, however, but also because of annexation. Boundary changes between 2010 and 2013, for example, added nearly 32,000 people to the city of Kirkland, Washington. City population also grows when new cities are created. Sixteen new cities were incorporated between 2010 and 2013, including James Island, South Carolina, and Jurupa Valley, California.

The most populous city in the United States is New York, with 8.4 million people in the city's 303 square miles of land. All those people in such a small geographic area make New York the most densely populated city in the United States, with 27,781 people per square mile. Close to the other extreme is Sitka, Alaska, which has more land area than any other city—2,870 square miles. Because only 9,020 people live there, however, Sitka's density is just 3.1 people per square mile. 

Source: Census Bureau, Population Trends in Incorporated Places: 2000 to 2013

The Demographics of Long-Haul Truckers

Among the 2.6 million Americans employed as truck drivers, many are long-haul truckers—meaning they drive heavy or tractor-trailer trucks on interstate routes. The CDC surveyed the health of long-haul truck drivers in 2010, with the following results...

• Long-haul truckers are aged 48, on average, and have been on the job 16 years.
• Most are men (93.5%) and White (73.5%). 
• Long-haul truck drivers worked an average of 60.4 hours in the past week, with 46.2 hours behind the wheel and the remainder spent loading and unloading, completing paperwork, and performing truck maintenance.
• In the past year, they drove an average of 107,700 miles.
• In the past month, the 63% majority spent six or fewer nights at home.

Source: CDC, Vital Signs: Seat Belt Use among Long-Haul Truck Drivers—United States, 2010

Children with Stay-at-Home Moms

Among the nation's children under age 15, only 20 percent live the Leave it to Beaver lifestyle—two parents, married, and a mother who does not work because she is caring for the family.

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements: 2014, Children

Household Income Stable in January 2015

Median household income was stable at $54,332 in January 2015, according to Sentier Research. Although this was $321 greater than the December 2014 median, the difference was not statistically significant after adjusting for inflation. The January 2015 median was 3.4 percent higher than the January 2014 median and 6.3 percent above the $51,126 median of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though there was not a statistically significant increase in median income between December and January," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "there has been a general upward trend in median income since the low point reached in August 2011." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in January 2015 was 1.0 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 2.8 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 3.9 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for January 2015 stood at 96.1 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: January 2015

One in Four Americans Will Be 65-Plus

In 2029, the youngest members of the baby-boom generation (born from 1946 through 1964) will turn 65. With boomers inflating the older age groups, the elderly share of the American population will climb to 25 percent by 2050—three times greater than the 8 percent of 1950...

Percentage of U.S. population aged 65 or older
2050: 24.9%
2014: 13.2%
1950:   8.1%

Source: Demo Memo analysis and Census Bureau, Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060

Homeownership by State, 2004 to 2014

The U.S. homeownership rate peaked in 2004 at 69.0 percent. Ten years later, the homeownership rate had fallen to 64.5 percent—a decline of 4.5 percentage points. In some states, the decline was greater...

States with the largest percentage point decline in homeownership rate, 2004-14
Nevada: -9.7
Georgia: -8.0
Florida: -7.3
Illinois: -6.3
Oregon: -6.2

Only three states saw their homeownership rate rise between 2004 and 2014: Rhode Island (+0.3), South Dakota (+0.7), and Vermont (+1.5).

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

The Single Years

Percentage of men and women aged 25 to 29 who have never married...

Men aged 25 to 29
2014: 68%
2000: 52%
1980: 33%
1960: 21%

Women aged 25 to 29
2014: 54%
2000: 39%
1980: 21%
1960: 11%

Source: Bureau of the Census, Families and Living Arrangements—Historical Tables

Problems Paying Medical Bills

The percentage of Americans under age 65 who were in families having problems paying medical bills fell substantially between 2011 and the first half of 2014. Behind the decline is recovery from the Great Recession and the introduction of the Affordable Care Act, which boosted health insurance coverage. 

Number (and percent) of people in families having trouble paying medical bills
2014: 47.7 million (17.8%)
2013: 51.8 million (19.4%)
2012: 54.3 million (20.4%)
2011: 56.5 million (21.3%)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Problems Paying Medical Bills among Persons Under Age 65: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 2011-June 2014

The Divorce Experience

Percent of Americans who say the following statements describe them...

• My parents divorced when I was a child: 20%
• My parents divorced when I was an adult: 4%
• I have been divorced once: 17%
• I have been divorced more than once: 7%
• I am considering divorce: 5%

Source: Harris Interactive, Americans Aren't as OK with Divorce as They Think They Are

Who Has A New Job?

Among all wage and salary workers aged 20 or older, a substantial 19.7 percent have had their current job for one year or less. Here are the percentages by age...

Worked for current employer for 12 months or less
Aged 20 to 24: 49.2%
Aged 25 to 34: 26.6%
Aged 35 to 44: 16.7%
Aged 45 to 54: 12.0%
Aged 55 to 64:   8.9%
Aged 65-plus:    7.8%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Tenure

Slow Payback of Student Loans

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the outstanding balance on student loans in the United States reached a mind boggling $1.2 trillion, up from $346 billion ten years ago. The number of borrowers with outstanding loans grew 92 percent during those years to 43 million.

One reason for the enormous growth in student loans is the disturbingly slow rate at which the loans are being paid back, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Looking at Equifax data, the researchers find only 37 percent of borrowers making regular payments on schedule. The others are either delinquent, in deferral, or still in school.

The researchers analyzed how much debt borrowers had in the year they left school and how much debt remained at the end of 2014. The 2010 cohort, for example, had $78 billion in debt upon leaving school and more than four years later still owes 91 percent of that amount. The 2005 cohort still owes 62 percent of its student loan balance from nearly 10 years ago.

The housing market is haunted by these student loans, according to the Fed analysis. "We don't fully understand how the burden of large amounts of debt on households' balance sheets for long periods of time affects student borrowers' behavior," conclude the researchers, "but our research so far suggests that growing student debt has contributed to the recent decline in the homeownership rate and to the sharp increase in parental co-residence among millennials."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Payback Time? Measuring Progress on Student Debt Repayment

Homeownership: A Decade of Decline

The nation's homeownership rate peaked in 2004 at 69.0 percent. Since then, the overall rate has fallen by 4.5 percentage points to 64.5 percent in 2014. Among householders in their thirties, the rate fell by more than 10 percentage points during those years...

Homeownership rate in 2014 (and percentage point decline since 2004)
Under 25: 21.7% (-3.5)
25 to 29:   32.7% (-7.5)
30 to 34:   47.1% (-10.3)
35 to 39:   56.0% (-10.2)
40 to 44:   63.2% (-8.7)
45 to 54:   70.7% (-6.5)
55 to 64:   76.3% (-5.4)
65-plus:    79.9 (-1.2)

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

How Much We Love Pets: 22

Pets rank a lofty 22 in the items on which the average household spends the most. The average American household spends more on pets than it does on...

• Alcoholic beverages
• Internet service
• Prescription drugs
• Day care and baby sitting
• Gifts of cash to family members 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Why Renters Move

Among the 13 million renter-occupied housing units in which householders had moved in the past year, just over half cited one of these five factors as the main reason for leaving their previous residence...

1. To establish own household (11.7%)
2. New job or job transfer (11.6%)
3. To be closer to work (11.6%)
4. Needed larger house or apartment (8.5%)
5. Wanted better home (6.6%)

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey

Technology May Immiserate Humanity

"Will smart machines, which are rapidly replacing workers in a wide range of jobs, produce economic misery or prosperity?"

That's the question posed in Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement, a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. The authors create a model to see how technological progress will impact the human economy. The model's outcome is, to use the authors' term, "disturbing."

The results of the model show that the growing legacy of software code may very well put the human economy out of business. "As the stock of legacy code grows," say the researchers, "the demand for new code and, thus for high-tech workers, falls." Former high-tech workers will seek jobs in low-tech occupations, driving those wages down. Smart machines are now on track to immiserate humanity, and open-source technology is likely to make matters worse. The researchers recommend generation-specific redistribution policies that could soften the blow.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement, NBER Working Paper 20941 ($5)

Fewer Minimum Wage Workers

Between 2010 and 2014, the number of minimum wage workers in the United States fell by 31 percent—a decline of more than 1 million.

Number (and percent) of wage and salary workers paid at or below minimum wage
2014: 2,992,000 (2.9%)
2010: 4,360,000 (6.0%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Boomer Men Not Delaying Retirement

Between 2000 and 2010, the labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69 climbed by more than 6 percentage points—from 30.3 to 36.5 percent. Many thought the upward trend was here to stay as the baby-boom generation sought to boost its retirement income. Many were wrong. As boomer men filled the 65-to-69 age group over the past four years, the rise in labor force participation came to a halt, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In fact, the labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69 fell slightly between 2010 and 2014...

Labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69
2014: 36.1
2010: 36.5
2000: 30.3

Interestingly, a Gallup survey of today's 65-to-68-year olds found them no more likely to work than the four-year cohort immediately preceding them. Those Gallup results are now confirmed.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Who Has a Living Will?

Only 28 percent of Americans have a living will, defined as "directives or documented instructions and/or wishes and preferences regarding the type of care they would like to receive or not receive at the end stage of their life." Older Americans are much more likely to have a living will than younger Americans...

Percent with a living will
Millennials: 10%
Gen Xers: 23%
Boomers: 36%
Matures: 65%

Source: Harris Interactive, Most Americans Agree with Right-to-Die Movement

Fish Oil and Yoga Are Making Gains

About one-third of Americans aged 18 or older used "complementary" (or alternative) medicine in 2012. Complementary medicine is a grab bag of tools and techniques for improving and maintaining health, including fish oil supplements, yoga, chiropractic manipulation, massage, and homeopathic treatments. The government has been tracking trends in the use of complementary medicine for a decade now, with surveys fielded in 2002, 2007, and 2012. Here are some of the more interesting findings from the 2012 survey...

• Dietary supplements are the most popular complementary medicine, used by 41 million adults in 2012 (18 percent of the population). Fish oil ranks number one among supplements, with 19 million users in the past 30 days. Eight percent of adults take fish oil supplements, up from 5 percent in 2007.
• Yoga is making steady gains, with the percentage practicing yoga nearly doubling from 5.1 percent in 2002 to 9.5 percent in 2012. Every age group boosted its participation in yoga during those years. People aged 18 to 44 are most likely to practice yoga, with 11.2 percent doing so in 2012. The figures are 7.2 percent among 45-to-64-year-olds and 3.3 percent among people aged 65 or older.

Source: National Center of Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Trends in the Use of Complementary Health Approaches among Adults: United States, 2002-2012

Religious Affiliation of College Freshmen

Top 10 responses of college freshmen when asked their current religious preference:

27.5%: none
25.3%: Roman Catholic
 7.7%: Baptist
 6.0%: Church of Christ
 3.0%: Methodist
 2.8%: Jewish
 2.6%: Lutheran
 2.4%: Presbyterian
 1.7%: Muslim
 1.6%: Buddhist

Source: Higher Education Research Institute, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2014

College Fantasy vs. Reality

85% of college freshmen believe they will complete their bachelor's degree in four years, according to The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2014.

38% of college freshmen complete their bachelor's degree in four years, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

How Many Share Your Birthday?

Economist Wolfgang Fengler had some fun on his birthday. He calculated the number of people worldwide who were celebrating the same exact birthday—day and year. Then he made the same calculation for other birthdays, and his results reveal not only the world's growing population but also shifting patterns of global growth.

For babies celebrating their first birthday, 368,000 others worldwide are celebrating the same birthday. The largest share of these "birthday buddies," as Fengler calls them, are from India, China, and Nigeria. For people celebrating their 90th birthday, only 11,000 others worldwide are celebrating the same birthday. The largest share are from China, the United States, and Japan.

To see results for other ages, check out How Your Birthday Reveals Global Demographic Shifts, on the Brookings Institution's Future Development blog.

Arrested by Age 23

Among 23-year-old men, percent who have ever been arrested (excluding minor traffic violations), by race and Hispanic origin...

Black: 49%
Hispanic: 44%
White: 38%

Source: Demographic Patterns of Cumulative Arrest Prevalence by Ages 18 and 23, cited in the Urban Institute report Reducing Harms to Boys and Men of Color from Criminal Justice System Involvement

Children and Secondhand Smoke

Exposure to secondhand smoke fell steeply between 1999 and 2012, according to a CDC study of nicotine metabolite levels in blood. The percentage of nonsmokers aged 3 or older with detectable levels of nicotine in their blood fell from 52.5 percent in 1999-2000 to just 25.3 percent in 2011-2012.

Behind the decline is the elimination of smoking from most bars, restaurants, work sites, and public places. "The Surgeon General has concluded that eliminating smoking in indoor spaces fully protects nonsmokers from SHS [secondhand smoke] exposure," notes the CDC in its report. But many children are exposed to secondhand smoke at home, which explains why they have the highest levels of nicotine in their blood...

Percentage of nonsmokers with detectable levels of nicotine in their blood 
Aged 3 to 11: 41%
Aged 12 to 19: 34%
Aged 20 or older: 21%

Source: CDC, Disparities in Nonsmokers' Exposure to Secondhand Smoke—United States, 1999-2012

Emergency Cash: How Long Would It Last?

Most households have little money saved for emergencies, according to an analysis of the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances by the Pew Charitable Trusts. Financial advisors recommend having three to six months of income in liquid savings (cash, checking, and savings accounts). By income quintile, here is how much liquid savings households have for emergencies...

Top quintile: 52 days
Fourth quintile: 30 days
Middle quintile: 21 days
Second quintile: 15 days
Bottom quintile: 9 days

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, The Precarious State of Family Balance Sheets

Number of Moves in Lifetime

The average American will move 11.7 times during his or her lifetime, according to a Census Bureau calculation made a few years ago. The estimate was based on annual mobility and mortality rates in 2007 and allowed for a maximum of one move per person per year.

Now FiveThirtyEight has updated that estimate. As of 2013, the average American will move 11.3 times in his or her life. Behind the slight decline is the drop in mobility rates caused by the collapse of the housing market and the subsequent Great Recession. The average 18-year-old in the United States has moved twice, says Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight's DataLab, and the average 30-year-old has moved six times.

Source: FiveThirtyEight, How Many Times Does the Average Person Move?

Do Parents Trump Public Health?

"Parents should be able to decide not to vaccinate their children." A substantial 30 percent of the public agrees with that statement, according to a Pew survey. Younger adults—the ones now making the vaccination decisions— are most likely to favor parental choice over public health.

"Parents should be able to decide not to vaccinate their children" (percent agreeing)
Under age 50: 37%
Aged 50-plus: 22%

Source: Pew Research Center, Public and Scientists' Views on Science and Society

Median Age at First Marriage Hits New High

The median age at first marriage set another record in 2014, climbing to 29.3 years for men and 27.0 years for women. Here is the trend for men and women since median age at first marriage bottomed out in 1956...

Men's median age at first marriage
2014: 29.3
2010: 28.2
2000: 26.8
1990: 26.1
1980: 24.7
1970: 23.2
1960: 22.8
1956: 22.5

Women's median age at first marriage
2014: 27.0
2010: 26.1
2000: 25.1
1990: 23.9
1980: 22.0
1970: 20.8
1960: 20.3
1956: 20.1

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements, Marital Status

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2014

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2014: 47.4%

The homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 30 to 34 was nearly a full percentage above the all-time low of 46.5 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2014. Still, the figure is well below the 50-percent threshold that once marked this age group as the nation's first-time homebuyers. Historically, homeownership became the norm in the 30-to-34 age group—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. The latest number is another datapoint in the ongoing trend.

The new age of first-time home buying is 35 to 39, but even this age group is slipping. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds fell to 55.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014—a record low. Since peaking in the first quarter of 2007, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds has fallen by more than 10 percentage points. 

Nationally, the homeownership rate slipped to 64.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, down from 65.2 percent a year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Children in the Household by Generation, 2014

Overall, 28 percent of American households include children under age 18 and a larger 39 percent include children of any age. By generation, here are the numbers...

Households with children under age 18
Millennials: 46.8% 
Generation X: 55.7%
Baby Boomers: 11.5%
Older Americans: 1.1%

Households with children of any age
Millennials: 47.6% 
Generation X: 64.9%
Baby Boomers: 30.2%
Older Americans: 12.5%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's, America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2014

Household Income Rises in December 2014

Good news: Median household income climbed to $54,417 in December 2014, according to Sentier Research—$738 more than the November median, after adjusting for inflation. The statistically significant increase was due in part to the decline in consumer prices as the cost of gasoline fell. The December 2014 median was 3.3 percent higher than the December 2013 median and 5.7 percent above the $51,459 median of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Our time series charts clearly illustrate that although the economic recovery officially began in June 2009, the recovery in household income did not begin to emerge until after August 2011," explains Sentier's Gordon Green. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in December 2014 was 1.5 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 3.2 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 4.4 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for December 2014 stood at 95.6 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: December 2014

Labor Force by Generation

Percent distribution of Americans aged 16 or older in the labor force by generation...

iGeneration: 2.8%
Millennials: 36.7%
Generation X: 25.6%
Baby Boomers: 31.4%
Older Americans: 3.4%

Note: Labor force as of 2013, when the iGeneration was 16-18; Millennials were 19-36; Generation X was 37-48; Boomers were 49-67; older Americans were 68-plus.
Source: New Strategist Publications, American Generations Series

Spending on Books Plunges

In 2013, the average household spent almost as much on digital book readers ($30.18) as it did on books ($32.53). Since 2000, average household spending on books has fallen 58 percent, after adjusting for inflation—almost as steep a decline as the 65 percent plunge in spending on newspaper and magazine subscriptions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Workers Feel More Insecure

Workers today feel more insecure about their jobs than their counterparts a generation ago, according to an analysis of data in the Monthly Labor Review by business school professor Charles N. Weaver. A comparison of worker attitudes in the 1970s (1977 and 1978) with attitudes in the 2010s (2010 and 2012) reveals a growing fear...

• In the 1970s, only 7.7 percent of workers were afraid they would lose their job. In the 2010s, the figure had climbed to 11.2 percent. 
• In the 1970s, the 59 percent majority of workers were confident in their ability to find a comparable job. In the 2010s, only 48 percent of workers had confidence.

The loss of confidence has been greater for some workers than others. Confidence has plunged the most for workers aged 30 to 49 (a 12.6 percentage point decline), men, (-12.8), high school graduates (-15.5), workers with some college but no degree (-23.1), and clerical workers (-23.9).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Worker's Expectations about Losing and Replacing their Jobs: 35 Years of Change

How Much Is "Some College"?

Nearly 35 million Americans aged 25 or older have "some college" but no degree. The "some college" group, in fact, is the second largest in the United States. It is outnumbered only by the 55 million who have a high school diploma but no further education. But what does "some college" mean, exactly? The Census Bureau has the numbers...

Percent distribution of people with "some college" by years of college completed
Less than one: 16%
One year : 32%
Two years: 37%
Three years: 10%
Four-plus years: 4%

Source: Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2014

Lower Gas Prices and the Average Household

Gasoline is one of the largest household expenses. How large? According to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the average household spent $2,549 on gasoline in 2013. Gasoline ranks a lofty 5th among items on which the average household spends the most (after deductions for Social Security, groceries, vehicle purchases, and rent/mortgage interest).

That was then, when gasoline cost $3.49/gallon. Now, with gas prices at about $2.00/gallon, the average household is projected to spend just $1,461 on gasoline this year—a savings of more than $1,000. Gasoline will fall from 5th to 8th place in the ranking of items on which the average household spends the most—below restaurant meals, health insurance, and property taxes. No wonder Americans' Economic Confidence Index is at a record high and in positive territory for the first time since Gallup started daily tracking of this indicator in 2008.

Financial Status of Baby Boomers

Among people aged 50 to 64, fewer than one in four feels financially secure. These are the responses of a representative sample of the age group to the question, "What is your household's overall financial situation?"

23% say they are financial secure
27% say they have enough money to get by
22% say they're doing okay, but wish they had saved more
22% say they are struggling to make things work out financially
7% say they are in poor financial shape

Source: AARP, Americans Aged 50+ and Stress: An AARP Bulletin Survey

The Rise of Prescription Drugs

Prescription drugs are a large and growing share of health care spending. That explains why the castle-like edifices of Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid, and other pharmacy chains now loom over so many street corners and shopping centers. In 2012, the total amount spent (by insurance companies, government programs, and out-of-pocket payments) on the health care received by Americans amounted to $1.351 trillion. Prescription drugs accounted for more than one-fifth of that amount in 2012, nearly double the share in 1996....

Percent of total health care spending devoted to prescription drugs in 2012 (and 1996)
For people under age 65: 21.9% (11.5%)
For people aged 65-plus: 21.3% (12.7%)

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Trends in National Health Care Expenses in the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, Percentage by Type of Service and Source of Payment with Age and Insurance Groups, 1996-2012

Age at First Birth

The average age of American women giving birth for the first time climbed to 26.0 in 2013, up from 25.8 in 2012 and one full year older than the average age at first birth in 2007—the year births peaked in the United States. Age at first birth varies by race and Hispanic origin...

Average age at first birth
29.4 for Asians
26.8 for non-Hispanic Whites
26.7 for Hispanics of Cuban origin
23.9 for Blacks
23.9 for Hispanics of Puerto Rican origin
23.4 for Hispanics of Mexican origin
22.9 for American Indians

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2013

Food-Away-from-Home Hits All-Time High

American consumers, businesses, and governments spent $1.4 trillion on food and beverages in 2013. Almost half that spending was devoted to food-away-from-home (restaurants, carryouts, etc.). The 49.6 percent of spending devoted to food-away-from-home in 2013 was an all-time high after a several years of decline following the Great Recession.

Share of U.S. food spending devoted to food-away-from-home
2013: 49.6%
2010: 48.6%
2000: 47.0%
1990: 43.0%
1980: 39.0%
1970: 33.4%
1960: 26.3%

"Two-earner households and busier lifestyles have led consumers to spend less time cooking and seek the convenience of food prepared away from home," explains the USDA's Economic Research Service (U.S. Food Sales Evenly Split between At-Home and Away-from-Home Markets).

Tuesday: The Least Happy Day

Tuesday is the least happy day of the week, according to a Gallup Survey. On an average Tuesday in 2014, only 44 percent of Americans reported feeling "a lot of happiness and enjoyment without a lot of stress/worry." The other weekdays were not much better, with only 45 percent feeling happiness on an average Wednesday, 46 percent on Thursdays and Mondays, and 48 percent on Fridays.

The happiest days are holidays. Fully 68 percent of Americans reported feeling happy on Thanksgiving Day 2014, followed by July 4 (67%), and Christmas Day (63%).

Source: Gallup, Holidays, Weekends Still Americans' Happiest Days of Year 

Most Americans Are On Facebook

The 58 percent majority of American adults use Facebook, according to a survey by Pew Research Center. Among online adults, the figure is 71 percent. Among Facebook users, 70 percent check the site every day. The use of Facebook far exceeds the use of other social media sites, with 28 percent of online adults using LinkedIn and Pinterest, 26 percent using Instagram, and 23 percent using Twitter.

Percentage of online adults who use Facebook by age
Aged 18 to 29: 87%
Aged 30 to 49: 73%
Aged 50 to 64: 63%
Aged 65-plus: 56%

The percentage of online adults aged 65 or older who are on Facebook exceeded 50 percent for the first time in 2014, up from 45 percent in 2013 and 35 percent in 2012.

Source: Pew Research Center, Social Media Update 2014

Attitudes toward Climate Change

The American public is divided in its attitude toward climate change...

46% believe the earth's climate is getting warmer due to human activity
25% believe the earth's climate is getting warmer, but not due to human activity
26% do not believe the earth's climate is getting warmer

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Believers, Sympathizers, and Skeptics: Why Americans Are Conflicted about Climate Change, Environmental Policy, and Science

How Many Have a Cold?

This is one of those winters. The percentage of adults who report being "sick with a cold yesterday" reached an all-time high of 11.6 percent in December, reports Gallup, which has collected monthly data on colds and flu since 2008. By age, young adults are most likely to have been sick with a cold yesterday...

Sick with a cold on an average day in December 2014
Aged 18 to 29: 15.7%
Aged 30 to 44: 12.0%
Aged 45 to 64: 9.9%
Aged 65-plus: 9.6%

A smaller 4.0 percent of adults reported being sick with the flu yesterday, with the figure peaking at 6.9 percent among 30-to-44-year-olds. This is the age group most likely to have children, and people with children are more likely to have the flu (5.8 percent) than those without (3.0 percent).

Source: Gallup, U.S. Flu and Cold Reports among Highest Since 2008

States with Highest Rate of Natural Increase, 2013-14

The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) varies greatly by state. Overall in the United States, there were 3,957,577 births and 2,593,996 deaths in the 12 months prior to July 1, 2014—resulting in a rate of natural increase of 1.9 percent.

By state, the rate of natural increase varies from a high of 12.4 percent in Utah to a decline in West Virginia (-0.7 percent) and Maine (-0.4 percent). Here are the states with the highest rate of natural increase in the 2013-14 time period...

Utah, 12.4
Alaska, 9.5
Texas, 7.8
Idaho, 7.0
District of Columbia, 6.8
North Dakota, 6.7
California, 6.5
South Dakota, 6.3
Nebraska, 6.0
Colorado, 6.0

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2014

Most Young Adults Boomerang

The boomerang phenomenon is real. By age 27, most young adults have returned to their parental home for a period of time or never managed to leave, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In an analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, BLS researchers examined the living arrangements of a representative sample of 27-year-olds. Here is their boomerang status...

Never left parental home: 9.8%
Left parental home, but returned: 11.6%
Left parental home, returned, left again: 37.7%
Left parental home, never returned: 40.9%

By age 27, fully 90 percent of young adults had moved out of their parental home. But the 55 percent majority of those who left boomeranged, returning home for a period of time. Those most likely to return home were young adults with a bachelor's degree (59 percent) and those whose families had the highest incomes (58 percent).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Independence for Young Millennials: Moving Out and Boomeranging Back

The Unpredictable Schedules of Hourly Workers

If you're a worker who gets paid by the hour, chances are you don't know your work schedule more than a week in advance. That's the finding of a Brookings Institution analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Among 26-to-32-year-olds who are paid by the hour, 41 percent do not know their work schedule more than a week in advance, creating instability for millions of workers. The percentage who must cope with such short notice exceeds the 39 percent who know their schedule at least four weeks in advance. Unpredictable work schedules, says Brookings, limit the upward mobility of low-income workers.

Source: The Brookings Institution, Do Unpredictable Hours Undermine Upward Mobility?

Trends in Weekly Earnings

Median usual weekly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers aged 25 or older, for selected years from 1980 to 2013 (in 2013 dollars)...

Men
2013: $912
2010: $934
2000: $938
1990: $884
1980: $911

Women
2013: $740
2010: $752
2000: $698
1990: $637
1980: $573

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Highlights of Women's Earnings in 2013 (PDF)

Hotter Temps = Lower Incomes

Global warming may reduce incomes in the United States, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study (NBER Working Paper 20750, $5). In an analysis of 40 years of U.S. county-level data, the researchers find a productivity decline of 1.7 percent for every 1.8°F  rise in daily average temperature. "A weekday above 30°C (86°F) costs an average county $20 per person," they report, noting: "Hot weekends have little effect."

Life Expectancy in 2013: 78.8 Years

In 2013, life expectancy at birth in the United States was 78.8 years--unchanged from 2012, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. At age 65, life expectancy was 19.3 years, also unchanged from 2012.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2013

States with Highest Domestic Migration Rates, 2013-14

Here are the 10 states with the highest rates of net domestic migration (meaning more U.S. residents are moving into the state than out of the state per 1,000 population) between July 1, 2013 and June 30, 2014...

1. North Dakota

2. Nevada

3. South Carolina

4. Colorado

5. Florida

6. Arizona

7. Texas

8. Oregon

9. Delaware

10. Idaho

Will the decline in the price of oil and the loss of oil field jobs topple North Dakota from its number-one position on this list? Stay tuned.

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2014

Most and Least Depressed

People most and least likely to report moderate to severe depression symptoms in past two weeks...

Most depressed: Women aged 40 to 59 (12.3%)
Least depressed: Men aged 60 or older (3.4%)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Depression in the U.S. Household Population, 2009-2012

Household Income Stable in November 2014

Median household income in November stood at $53,880, according to Sentier Research. Although this was $305 more than the October 2014 median, the difference was not statistically significant, after adjusting for inflation. The November 2014 median was 1.9 percent higher than the November 2013 median, however, and 4.3 percent more than the $51,652 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Our time series charts clearly illustrate that although the economic recovery officially began in June 2009, the recovery in household income did not begin to emerge until after August 2011," explains Sentier's Gordon Green. "While many of the month-to-month changes in median income since the low-point in August 2011 have not been statistically significant, an overall upward trend is still clearly evident," he states. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 
  
Median household income in November 2014 was 2.8 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 4.5 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 5.7 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for November 2014 stood at 94.3 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: November 2014

Trends in Gift Spending

The average household cut its spending on gifts for people in other households by 19 percent between 2006 and 2013, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey—from $1,333 to $1,078, after adjusting for inflation. As noted previously by Demo Memo, it's not just the Great Recession and its aftermath that has reduced gift spending. Another factor is the Gift Problem: as books, music, video games, and other gift categories have morphed from physical to virtual, there's less to give.

But wait—what about gifts of money? Cash and gift cards are not included in the CEX category "gifts for people in other households." Instead, they're in the financial category "cash gifts to members of other households." Maybe there's more holiday spirit in the cash gift category. Alas, it too has declined. The average household gave $451 in cash (or gift cards) to people in other households in 2013—4 percent less than the $472 of 2006, after adjusting for inflation.

But not everyone is channeling their inner Scrooge. The biggest givers of cash gifts are the oldest householders, and they've loosened the purse strings. In 2013, householders aged 75 or older gave $1,262 in cash to people in other households—15 percent more than in 2006, after adjusting for inflation.

Fastest Growing States, 2010 to 2014

Between 2010 and 2014, the U.S. population as a whole grew 3.1 percent to 319 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 9.7 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state: West Virginia's population fell by 0.2 percent during those years. These were the 10 fastest growing states from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014, with Nevada once again on the list...

1. North Dakota, 9.7%

2. District of Columbia, 8.9%

3. Texas, 6.8%

4. Colorado, 6.1%

5. Utah, 6.1%

6. Florida, 5.5%

7. Nevada, 5.0%

8. Arizona, 5.0%

9. Washington, 4.7%

10. South Dakota, 4.5%

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2014

The Job of Driving

Number of full-time wage and salary workers
Truck drivers: 2,587,000
Bus drivers: 339,000
Taxi drivers: 202,000

Median weekly earnings
Truck drivers: $730
Bus drivers: $579
Taxi drivers: $521

Percent female
Truck drivers: 4.1%
Bus drivers: 43.4%
Taxi drivers: 14.9%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Highlights of Women's Earnings in 2013 (PDF)

Graduate Student Debt: $60,600

Among the nation's 4 million graduate students in 2011-12, fully 67.5 percent borrowed to pay for their undergraduate and/or graduate school expenses. Half borrowed to pay for their undergraduate program, and an even larger 57 percent were borrowing to pay for graduate school. Those who borrowed as undergraduates had accumulated an average of $27,000 in student loans, and those who borrowed for grad school had accumulated an even larger $47,700 in student loans.

Because many graduate students borrowed first as undergraduates and then as graduate students, 2011-12 grad students with debt had borrowed a cumulative average of $60,600.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Profile and Financial Aid Estimates of Graduate Students: 2011-12

Alternative Energy: Young vs Old

Sixty percent of the American public wants to prioritize the development of alternative energy rather than coal, oil, and natural gas production. Only the oldest Americans do not agree...

Alternative energy is most important priority

Aged 18 to 29: 74%

Aged 30 to 49: 64%

Aged 50 to 64: 53%

Aged 65-plus: 48%

Source: Pew Research Center, As U.S. Energy Production Grows, Public Policy Views Show Little Change

Young Adults Aren't Buying It

Young adults aren't the consumers they once were. A Demo Memo analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey data shows older Americans overtaking them as better customers in many important categories. Here is how the average spending of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds (young adults) compares to the average spending of households headed by 65-to-74-year-olds (old folks) in 2006 and 2013...

Dinner at full service restaurants
2006: young adults spent 16 percent more than old folks
2013: young adults spent 22 percent less than old folks

Groceries
2006: young adults spent 4 percent more than old folks
2013: young adults spent 5 percent less than old folks

Entertainment
2006: young adults spent 9 percent more than old folks
2013: young adults spent 11 percent less than old folks

Women's clothes
2006: young adults spent 18 percent more than old folks
2013: young adults spent 5 percent less than old folks

Personal care products
2006: young adults spent 13 percent more than old folks
2013: young adults spent 8 percent less than old folks

Household furnishings and equipment
2006: young adult spending was the same as old folks
2013: young adults spent 13 percent less than old folks

Questions about Sexual Orientation

It's not easy to ask people about their sexual orientation. In fact, the federal government spent 11 years studying the best way to phrase the question for the 2013 National Health Interview Survey, using in-depth interviews to determine the right words. One finding from this research was that the terms "gay," "lesbian," and "straight" are less confusing to the public than the terms "homosexual" and "heterosexual."

Overall, 97 percent of men and women aged 18 or older identified themselves as "straight" in the 2013 survey, and 2 percent said they were gay, lesbian, or bisexual. Some (0.6 percent) refused to answer the question and the same small percentage said they were "something else" or "don't know."

When the few who said they were "something else" were further questioned by interviewers, the 39 percent plurality said they didn't use labels to identify themselves. When the few who answered "don't know" were questioned further, the 30 percent plurality said they were in the process of figuring out their sexuality.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Sexual Orientation in the 2013 National Health Interview Survey: A Quality Assessment (PDF)

Health Insurance: Where You Live Matters

The Affordable Care Act is moving the needle: fewer Americans are without health insurance. Among 18-to-64-year-olds, the percentage who were uninsured when interviewed by the National Health Interview Survey fell from 20.4 percent in 2013 to 17.0 percent in January-June 2014. Demographically speaking, that decline is big news.

But the growing safety net of health insurance is not evenly distributed. In states that refused to participate in Medicaid expansion and the marketplace program, a much larger percentage of working-age adults is uninsured. By geographic region, here are the percentages of working-age adults without health insurance in January-June 2014...

Percent of 18-to-64-year-olds without health insurance
25.9% West South Central
21.2% South Atlantic
18.6% Mountain
17.0% Pacific
16.5% East South Central
14.4% West North Central
12.7% East North Central
12.3% Middle Atlantic
7.6% New England

For working-age adults, the 18-percentage-point health insurance coverage gap between the West South Central states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas) and New England means where you live matters more than ever.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June 2014

Who Uses Birth Control?

American women aren't fooling around. Their use of contraception is nearly universal. Overall, 62 percent of women aged 15 to 44 are currently using contraception, but that figure is deceivingly low. It includes women who don't use birth control because they aren't having sex, and it includes women who are trying to get pregnant, are pregnant, or just had a baby.

In fact, only 6.9 percent of women aged 15 to 44 aren't using contraceptives and should be using them because they're sexually active and don't want to become pregnant. That means fully 93.1 percent of American women have taken control of their fertility, which may explain why the fertility rate is at a record low.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Current Contraceptive Status among Women Aged 15-44: United States, 2011-2013

New Projections: Minority Majority in 2044

Although population growth is slowing in the United States because of the baby bust, one thing hasn't changed. Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics will become the majority of Americans within three decades. The Census Bureau's new projections show minorities becoming the majority in 2044, only one year later than in the bureau's previous projection series released two years ago. Here are the projections by race and Hispanic origin for 2015 and 2050...

Non-Hispanic White population (and share of total)
2015: 198 million (61.7%)
2050: 188 million (47.3%)
The non-Hispanic White population will peak in 2025 and then decline. The non-Hispanic White share of the population will fall below 50 percent in 2044.

Hispanic population (and share of total)
2015: 57 million (17.7%)
2050: 106 million (26.5%)
The new projections forecast 6 million fewer Hispanics in 2050 than the previous projection series, a consequence of slowing immigration and fewer births.

Black (alone or in combination) population (and share of total)
2015: 46 million (14.4%)
2050: 67 million (16.9%)
The new projections forecast 2 million fewer Blacks in 2050 than the previous projection series, a consequence of fewer births.

Asian (alone or in combination) population (and share of total)
2015: 21 million (6.4%)
2050: 42 million (10.6%)
The new projections forecast nearly 4 million more Asians in 2050 than the previous projection series, a consequence of greater immigration.

Source: Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections

Census Bureau Projects Fewer Births

The Census Bureau's new population projections correct a major flaw in the previous set of numbers released two years ago—the failure to account for the ongoing baby bust. The new forecast incorporates the baby bust, adjusting births downward by 200,000 to 400,000 a year over the projection time period. The numbers add up. From 2015 to 2060, the Census Bureau forecasts nearly 15 million fewer births than it had projected in the previous series. Here's a comparison of the birth projections for 2015...

Number of births projected for 2015
New projections: 3,998,730
Old projections: 4,290,077

According to the new projections, the annual number of births will exceed 4 million again in 2016. But the number will not surpass the 2007 record of 4,316,233 until 2044. The old projections had that record being broken in 2017.

Source: Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections

Turmoil in Children's Lives

Turmoil is the norm for many children, according to a Census Bureau study. Among the nation's children under age 18, the 56 percent majority experience potentially troublesome transitions in their home life over a four-year time period. Using Survey of Income and Program Participation longitudinal data, the Census Bureau examined three types of transitions: 1) a change in the number of parents (or partners) in the home; 2) moving from one house to another; and 3) an employment change for at least one parent.

Some children's lives are much more chaotic than others. Not surprisingly, the lower the income the greater the chaos. Among children with family incomes below poverty level, fully 70 percent experienced at least one transition over a four-year period. Among children with the highest family incomes, only 42 percent experienced a transition.

Source: Census Bureau, A Child's Day: Living Arrangements, Nativity, and Family Transitions: 2011 (Selected Indicators of Child Well-Being

Household Income Stable in October 2014

Median household income in October stood at $53,713, according to Sentier Research. Although this was $320 less than the September 2014 median of $54,033, the difference was not statistically significant, after adjusting for inflation. The October 2014 median was 1.0 percent higher than in October 2013, however, and 3.7 percent more than the $51,784 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Our time series charts clearly illustrate that although the economic recovery officially began in June 2009, the recovery in household income did not begin to emerge until after August 2011," explains Sentier's Gordon Green. "While many of the month-to-month changes in median income since the low-point in August 2011 have not been statistically significant, an overall upward trend is still clearly evident," he states. Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.   

Median household income in October 2014 was 3.4 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 5.1 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 6.2 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for October 2014 stood at 93.8 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: October 2014

Gas Prices and Housing Values

The higher the price of gas, the lower the value of houses in the suburbs, finds a study by the Brookings Institution. Every 10 percent increase in the price of gasoline lowers average house prices by $7,800 in the outskirts of a city and raises house prices by $5,600 in the city center, report the Brookings researchers. Their findings are based on an analysis of 930,702 home sales in Clark County, Nevada, from 1976 through 2010.

With gas prices falling to a low not seen in years, homeowners in the suburbs may benefit, able to sell their houses for more because buyers will be less averse to a lengthy commute.

Source: The Brookings Institution, Do Gasoline Prices Affect Residential Property Values?

Fast Food = No Fun

People who buy fast food are busy and in a hurry. That's not a surprise, of course, but data from the American Time Use Survey now documents those facts.

Among Americans aged 18 or older, those who purchase fast food on a given day spend more time working and traveling (mostly commuting) and less time watching TV and sleeping than the average person. The fast-food purchasers spent only 57 minutes per day eating and drinking versus the 68 minutes spent by the average person. Fast-food buyers were also more likely to report eating while mostly doing something else—such as working or driving a vehicle.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, The Role of Time in Fast-Food Purchasing Behavior in the United States

Why So Many 30-Year-Olds Live with Their Parents

The homeownership rate of young adults plunged after the Great Recession. How big a plunge? Among 30-year-olds, the homeownership rate fell by an astonishing 12.5 percentage points between 2006-07 and 2013, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. During those years, a growing share of 30-year-olds opted to live with their parents rather than independently.

Consequently, 30-year-olds today are almost as likely to live with their parents (31.5%) as they are to own a home (31.9%). What's behind this sorry state of affairs? The growing burden of student loans is largely responsible, concludes the NY Fed.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Debt, Jobs, or Housing: What's Keeping Millennials at Home? 

The Three Stages of Old Age

Old age has three stages: the Go-Go years, the Slow-Go years, and the No-Go years. A Census Bureau analysis of the disability status of Americans aged 65 or older, based on data from the American Community Survey, confirms this reality.

• The Go-Go elderly are aged 65 to 74. Only 26.4 percent are disabled. 
• The Slow-Go elderly are aged 75 to 84, when a larger 45.0 percent are disabled.
• The No-Go elderly are aged 85 or older. Fully 72.5 percent are disabled. 

Among the disabled elderly, the most common problem is difficulty walking or climbing stairs, experienced by two out of three.

Source: Census Bureau, Older Americans with a Disability: 2008-2012

Trouble with CPS Retirement Income Data

Do census data understate retirement income? That's the question asked by a Center for Retirement Research report. The answer is yes. Here's why: the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS), the nation's official source of income data, does not count as income the money withdrawn from IRAs and 401(k)s unless it is taken as an annuity. It's a big problem. The CPS estimates that only $18 billion was withdrawn from defined-contribution accounts (IRAs and 401(k)s) in 2012. The actual amount is closer to $220 billion, according to IRS data. That's a lot of missing money.

Fortunately, the under-reporting of defined-contribution income understates the income only of high-income households because most lower- and middle-income households have no or minimal IRA/401(k) assets. "The CPS provides a reasonably good measure of income for the typical middle-income household," concludes the report. Upper-income retirees, however, are much richer than it appears in the CPS statistics.

Soon, we might know just how rich they are. The Census Bureau is testing a redesign of the Current Population Survey to capture the missing money.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Do Census Data Understate Retirement Income?

Who Likes Their Health Care?

How do Americans rate their health care? It depends on their health insurance status. The percentage who give the health care they received in the past year the highest rating (a 9 or 10 on a scale of 0 to 10) ranges from a low of 37 percent among people without health insurance to a high of more than 60 percent among people on Medicare.

Because health insurance coverage depends on age, how people feel about their health care varies greatly by age. Young adults under age 26, many covered by their parents' health insurance thanks to the Affordable Care Act, have a higher opinion of the health care they received than those aged 26 to 34—the age group most likely to be uninsured. People aged 65 or older, universally covered by Medicare, are the ones most impressed with their health care.

Percent rating their health care a 9 or 10
18 to 25: 45.7%
26 to 34: 39.7%
35 to 44: 42.0%
45 to 54: 47.1%
55 to 64: 55.3%
65-plus: 62.2%

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2012 Quality of Care Tables

Spending on Eating Out Falls 10%

The average household spent $2,236 on food from restaurants and carry-outs in 2013—10 percent less than in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. Some age groups cut their spending more than others, however, and two age groups boosted their spending during those years...

Average household spending on eating out in 2013 (and % change, 2007 to 2013; in 2013$)
Under 25: $1,922 (+9%)
25 to 34: $2,317 (-14%)
35 to 44: $2,819 (-7%)
45 to 54: $2,674 (-7%)
55 to 64: $2,044 (-19%)
65-plus: $1,578 (+3%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Boomers: 35% of Households

The Baby-Boom is no longer the largest generation. Millennials surpassed Boomers in size in 2011, and the gap between them is growing each year. In 2013, there were 78 million Millennials (aged 19 to 36) and 76 million Boomers (aged 49 to 67). But according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, Boomers still head the largest share of households and will for years to come...

Number (and %) of households by generation
Millennials: 30 million (25%)
Generation X: 27 million (22%)
Baby Boomers: 43 million (35%)
Older Americans:  23 million (18%)

Who Buys Brand-Name Products?

Less informed consumers buy brand-name products when a less expensive equivalent is available, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. NBER researchers came to this conclusion after analyzing a Nielsen Homescan database of 77 million shopping trips, zeroing in on who buys store-brand versus brand-name pain relievers.

Knowledgeable shoppers are more likely to buy store-brands. Pharmacists and physicians, the most knowledgeable shoppers in this instance, are most likely to buy store-brand pain relievers, choosing them over the branded equivalent 91 percent of the time. In comparison, the average consumer chooses the store-brand just 74 percent of the time. By field of study, college graduates with science degrees are more likely than other college graduates to buy store-brand pain relievers.

Extending their analysis to the purchase of cooking ingredients, the NBER researchers find that chefs—the most knowledgeable cooking supply shoppers—choose store-brand pantry staples 80 percent of the time while the average consumer chooses store brands only 60 percent of the time. Conclusion: the less consumers know, the more likely they are to pay the premium for a brand-name product.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Do Pharmacists Buy Bayer? Informed Shoppers and the Brand Premium

59,631 Miracle Births

Of the 4 million babies born in the United States in 2011, a substantial 59,631 could be considered miracle births—they were born through assisted reproductive technology, meaning either eggs or embryos were handled in a laboratory. These births do not include those in which only sperm are handled or a woman takes drugs to stimulate egg production.

The babies born through assisted reproductive technology account for 1.5 percent of all births, 19 percent of twin births, and 32 percent of triplet or higher births. In the state with the largest share of births due to assisted reproductive technology (Massachusetts), 4.5 percent of all births, 40 percent of twin births, and 63 percent of triplet-plus births are the result of this technology.

Source: CDC, Assisted Reproductive Technology Surveillance—United States, 2011

College Graduation Rates

Percent of full-time students attending four-year colleges in pursuit of a bachelor's degree who complete their degree in...

4 years: 38%
6 years: 59%
8 years: 61%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Graduation Rates for Selected Cohorts, 2005-10; and Student Financial Aid in Postsecondary Institutions, Academic Year 2012: First Look (Provisional Data NCES 2014

Voting Gaps in the 2014 Congressional Election

53% of voters under age 40 reported voting for the Democratic candidate.
56% of voters aged 65 or older reported voting for the Republican candidate.

72% of non-White voters reported voting for the Democratic candidate.
55% of White voters reported voting for the Republican candidate.

65% of voters without a religious affiliation reported voting for the Democratic candidate.
80% of White evangelical Protestants reported voting for the Republican candidate.

Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Vote Preferences and Outcome of the Midterm Election: The 2014 Vote

Only 14% Retire as Planned

How many people retire at the age they had planned? An analysis of the University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study (HRS) has the answer. The HRS is a longitudinal survey of Americans aged 50 or older, allowing researchers to track individuals over time. The Employee Benefit Research Institute used the HRS data to compare the expected and actual retirement age of individual workers. The findings were surprising. 

"Before age 62, actual retirement is higher than expected retirement," says EBRI researcher Sudipto Banerjee. But by age 65 the opposite is the case. "Eighty-one percent of workers expected to retire before age 65, but only 64.1 percent actually did so," Banerjee says. Overall, 38 percent of older workers retired before the age they had planned and a larger 48 percent retired after the age they had planned. Only 14 percent retired as planned. 

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, The Gap Between Expected and Actual Retirement: Evidence from Longitudinal Data, Notes, November 2014

Toy Story

Percent who plan on purchasing toys as gifts this holiday season...

Parents: 82%
Pet owners: 52%

Source: Harris Interactive, Anticipated Holiday Spending Remains Consistent Compared to Last Year

Women Say "No Thanks" to Marrying Again

Many of the nation's divorced or widowed singles say they don't want to marry again...

Percent of divorced/widowed who do not want to marry again
Men: 30%
Women: 54%

Source: Pew Research Center, Four in Ten Couples Are Saying "I Do," Again

The Ultimate Selfie: Your Health

Americans are ready to take their healthcare to the next level—self monitoring. A Harris Interactive survey finds nearly half of the public to be very or extremely interested in monitoring their blood pressure (48 percent), heartbeat (47 percent), or physical activity (43 percent) via smartphone or tablet. Young adults are especially interested in these services. Here are the percentages who are very or extremely interested in tracking their physical activity (such as steps and sleep) via smartphone or tablet by generation...

Very-extremely interested in tracking physical activity 

Millennials: 57%

Gen Xers: 45%

Boomers: 35%

Matures: 25%

Source: Harris Interactive, Americans May Be Ready for a Brave New World of Healthcare

Computer Ownership, 2013

Nearly nine out of ten Americans live in a household with a computer: 88 percent of the population has a computer at home—83 percent have a desktop or laptop computer and 71 percent own what the Census Bureau calls a "handheld computer," such as a smartphone.

For some, a handheld device is their only computer. Here is the percentage of households by age of householder that have only a handheld computer...

Aged 15 to 34: 9.5%
Aged 35 to 44: 5.8%
Aged 45 to 64: 3.9%
Aged 65-plus: 2.5%

Source: Census Bureau, Computer and Internet Access in the United States: 2013

Magnets for Millennials

Young adults are packing their bags and moving to the city. The nation's most urban counties gained more than 1 million 25-to-34-year-olds between 2008-10 and 2011-13, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the American Community Survey. This numerical gain is nearly double the increase in the number of 25-to-34-year-olds in all other counties combined.

There's more: The most urban counties, with a rank of 1 on the Rural-Urban Continuum (in metro areas with a population of 1 million or more), also saw the largest percentage increase in 25-to-34-year-olds between 2008-10 and 2011-13—a 4.5 percent rise. In the most rural counties, with a rank of 9 on the Rural-Urban Continuum, the number of 25-to-34-year-olds fell 4.8 percent during the time period.