Births in 2018 Lowest in 32 years

Only 3,788,235 babies were born in the U.S. in 2018—the fewest births since 1986, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Except for a small increase in 2014, the number of births has fallen in every year since 2007.

Number of births (in 000s)
2018: 3,788
2017: 3,856
2016: 3,946
2015: 3,978 
2014: 3,988
2013: 3,932
2012: 3,953
2011: 3,954
2010: 3,999 
2009: 4,131
2008: 4,248
2007: 4,316 (record high)

Records were broken again and again in 2018. The number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 (the general fertility rate) fell to a record low of 59.0 in 2018. The birth rates for women aged 15 to 19, 20 to 24, and 25 to 29 hit new record lows in 2018. The total fertility rate—the number of births a woman can expect in her lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates—fell to a record low of 1.728 in 2018. This is well below the 2.1 replacement level. "The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement for the last decade," notes the NCHS report.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Provisional Data for 2018 (PDF)

Only 63% of Public Willing to Vote for Presidential Candidate Aged 70 or Older

Every few years, Gallup surveys the public about its willingness to vote for a hypothetical presidential candidate with certain characteristics. These are some of the findings from its 2019 survey...

Would vote for a presidential candidate who is...
Black: 96%
Female: 94%
Gay or lesbian: 76%
Under age 40: 71%
Over age 70: 63%

The 76 percent of Americans who would be willing to vote for a gay or lesbian candidate is a record high. In 1978, the first year Gallup asked this question, only 26 percent said they would vote for a gay or lesbian candidate.

Source: Gallup, Less than Half in U.S. Would Vote for a Socialist for President

Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin

Life expectancy at birth varies by race and Hispanic origin. Non-Hispanic Blacks have a lower life expectancy at birth (74.9 years) than non-Hispanic Whites (78.6 years). Non-Hispanic Whites have a lower life expectancy at birth than Hispanics (81.8 years).

Add sex to the mix and the ranking of life expectancy becomes more complex. Non-Hispanic Black females have a higher life expectancy than non-Hispanic White males. Non-Hispanic White females have a higher life expectancy than Hispanic males. Hispanic females have the highest life expectancy of all.

Life expectancy at birth in 2016
84.3 years: Hispanic females
81.0 years: non-Hispanic White females
79.1 years: Hispanic males
78.0 years: non-Hispanic Black females
76.2 years: non-Hispanic White males
71.6 years: non-Hispanic Black males

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Data, United States Life Tables, 2016

Homeowners Aged 30 to 34 by Region

Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time homebuyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. Nationally, the homeownership rate of the age group fell below 50 percent in 2011 and has been below that level ever since. In the Northeast, South, and West, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 slipped below the 50 percent threshold in the aftermath of the Great Recession and has yet to recover. Not so in the Midwest, however, where the homeownership rate of the age group never dipped below 50 percent. Householders aged 30 to 34 are still the region's first-time homebuyers.

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 by region, 2018
47.7%: total U.S.
43.0%: Northeast
56.8%: Midwest
47.8%: South
42.4%: West

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Fewer Use Prescription Drugs

Although it seems as though prescription drug use is on the rise, in fact the percentage of Americans who have used one or more prescription drugs in the past 30 days has declined over the past decade—from 48.3 percent in 2007–08 to 45.8 percent in 2015–16. All of the decline in prescription drug use occurred among children under age 12, their use falling from 22.4 to 18.0 percent during those years.

Percent who have used one or more prescription drugs in past 30 days, 2015–16
Total population: 45.8%
Under age 12: 18.0%
Aged 12 to 19: 27.0%
Aged 20 to 59: 46.7%
Aged 60-plus: 85.0%

Bronchodilators are the most common type of prescription drug used by children (4.3 percent use them). Teens most commonly take central nervous system stimulants for attention deficit disorder (6.2 percent). Antidepressants are the most common drug taken by people aged 20 to 59 (11.4 percent). Among those aged 60 or older, lipid-lowering drugs are number one (46.3 percent).

The use of prescription drugs varies by race and Hispanic origin. Non-Hispanic Whites are most likely to have used prescription drugs in the past 30 days, with 50 percent having taken them. Asians are least likely (33 percent). Among people aged 60-plus, however, there is little difference in prescription drug use by race and Hispanic origin, with 82 to 85 percent having taken them in the past 30 days. The biggest differences by race and Hispanic origin are in the 20-to-59 age group. The 52 percent majority of non-Hispanic Whites aged 20 to 59 have taken a prescription drug in the past 30 days compared with 45 percent of Blacks, 34 percent of Hispanics, and just 30 percent of Asians.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prescription Drug Use in the United States, 2015–2016

The Age When We Lose Our Parents

"The loss of one or both parents can profoundly affect a person's life," say Census Bureau researchers Zachary Scherer and Rose M. Kreider in an analysis of the age at which people lose their parents. Parents provide financial, emotional, and practical support to their children throughout life, note Scherer and Kreider. Consequently, the age at which one loses a parent can affect quality of life and standard of living.

Little has been known about the age at which Americans experience the loss of their parents—until now. The 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation asked respondents whether their parents were still alive. Scherer and Kreider analyzed the data and found that the loss of one or more parents becomes the norm in the 45-to-54 age group...

Percent with one or more deceased parents
Total, 18-plus: 42.2%
Under age 18: 2.8%
Aged 18 to 24: 7.7%
Aged 25 to 34: 16.4%
Aged 35 to 44: 33.9%
Aged 45 to 54: 63.0%
Aged 55 to 64: 88.4%
Aged 65-plus: 99.1%

People lose their father before their mother, according to the analysis. Most 45-to-54-year-olds have lost Dad, while only one-third of the age group has lost Mom. Among 55-to-64-year-olds, the 54 percent majority has lost both parents. Among people aged 65 or older, a nearly universal 91 percent has lost both parents.

The age at which people lose a parent differs by socioeconomic factors. The higher the income and education, the smaller the percentage who have lost a parent in every age group until 65-plus, when nearly everyone has experienced the loss. By race and Hispanic origin, Blacks experience the loss of a parent at an earlier age than other race and Hispanic origin groups. Among 25-to-34-year-olds, for example, one in four Blacks has experienced the death of a parent. The figure is 15 percent among non-Hispanic Whites and Asians and 17 percent among Hispanics.

Because parents potentially provide their children with financial, emotional, and practical support throughout life, the earlier loss of parents may lower their children's standard of living. "Ostensibly, individuals with lower income, lower educational attainment, and those from communities that experience lower life expectancy would benefit most from parental support. However, our findings indicate that these same groups are the ones that experience parental loss earlier in life," the researchers conclude.

Source: Census Bureau, The Link Between Socioeconomic Factors and Parental Mortality

2.5 Million Artists in U.S. Labor Force

The stereotype of the starving artist must be laid to rest. A study of artists in the U.S. labor force by the National Endowment for the Arts shows the earnings of artists to be well above average—a median of $52,800 for those who worked full-time, year-round in 2012–16. Although this is less than the median for all professional workers ($60,460), it is 18 percent more than the median for the average worker ($44,640).

The National Endowment for the Arts collected data for its profile of artists by analyzing a number of government surveys including the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Contingent Workers Survey and Occupation Employment Survey. Artists are defined as those working in the following occupations, listed from most to least numerous...

Artists in the labor force
Designers: 938,000
Architects: 256,000
Art directors, fine artists, animators: 247,000
Writers and authors: 235,000
Photographers: 225,000
Musicians: 194,000
Producers and directors: 188,000
Other entertainers: 71,000
Actors: 53,000
Announcers: 51,000
Dancers and choreographers: 23,000

Fully 2.4 million workers are employed as artists in their primary occupation. Another 333,000 workers are artists as a second job. Musicians are the ones most likely to be artists as a second job (35 percent).

The 58 percent majority of those who are artists in their primary job work for a private company, 30 percent are self-employed, 7 percent work for a nonprofit, and 5 percent for government. Most of those who work as artists in a second job are self-employed (58 percent).

The median age of artists ranges from a low of 26 among dancers and choreographers to a high of 45 among architects and musicians. The median earnings in 2012–16 of artists who worked full-time ranged from a low of $31,150 for dancers and choreographers to a high of $76,680 for architects.

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, Artists and Other Cultural Workers: A Statistical Portrait

Financial Situation of American Households

The 56 percent majority of Americans say their personal financial situation today is good or excellent, according to a 2019 Gallup poll. This figure is significantly above the low of 41 percent recorded in 2012—in the aftermath of the Great Recession. But not everyone is doing well. Here is the distribution of households by their current financial situation...

Current financial situation (percent of households)
19% are saving a lot
37% are saving a little
26% are just managing to make ends meet
  6% are having to draw down savings
  7% are running into debt
  5% mixed, neither, or no opinion

Source: Gallup, Americans Feel Generally Positive about Their Own Finances

Median Household Income Falls Slightly in March 2019

Median household income fell to $63,425 in March 2019, after adjusting for inflation. This was 1 percent below the record high median recorded in January 2019, according to Sentier Research. Behind the decline is rising inflation. "The decline in real median household income of $635 between January 2019 and March 2019 is likely related to the uptick in inflation during the same time period," reports Sentier's Gordon Green. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

Despite the decline since January, the March 2019 median was 1.5 percent higher than the March 2018 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was 14.6 percent higher than the post-Great Recession low reached in June 2011 ($55,360)—a bottom hit two years after the official end of the Great Recession.

Sentier's Household Income Index for March 2019 was 103.5 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, after adjusting for inflation, the March 2019 median was just 3.5 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: March 2019

The Trust Gap by Educational Attainment

Most Americans do not trust others, according to the General Social Survey. Only 32 percent of the public agrees that most people can be trusted, while more than twice as many (64 percent) believe you can't be too careful in life. But some are more trusting than others, and no one is more trusting than a college graduate.

Americans with a bachelor's degree or more education are the only demographic segment in which the majority believes most people can be trusted—55 percent feel this way. In contrast, only 21 percent of their less-educated counterparts believe most people can be trusted. While 74 percent of those without a bachelor's degree think you can't be too careful in life, only 41 percent of those with a college degree agree.

Most people can be trusted (percent agreeing)
Not a college graduate: 21%
Bachelor's degree or more: 55%

You can't be too careful in life (percent agreeing)
Not a college graduate: 74%
Bachelor's degree or more: 41%

Note: Figures do not sum to 100 percent because some people said "it depends."

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

The Generations in 2018

Generational power continues to shift, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2018 population estimates by single-year of age. Older generations are dying off, while younger generations are gaining because of immigration and, for the Recession generation, births.

Between 2010 and 2018, Baby Boomers lost nearly 5 million of their peers, a 6 percent decline in the size of the generation. The number in the older Swing generation fell by 5 million, a 21 percent decline. The World War II generation (the oldest) lost more than 8 million members—a 60 percent decline since 2010. Gen Xers saw their ranks fall by 319,000 during those years.

Meanwhile, the number of Millennials grew by almost 3 million between 2010 and 2018, thanks to immigration. The iGeneration grew by nearly 2 million. The generations that follow Millennials now slightly outnumber Boomers and older Americans—99.3 million versus 99.1 million.

Size of generations in 2018 (and % of total population)
327,167,434 (100.0%): Total population
  35,950,639 (11.0%): Recession generation (aged 0 to 8)
  63,371,829 (19.4%): iGeneration (aged 9 to 23)
  79,812,607 (24.4%): Millennial generation (aged 24 to 41)  
  48,922,963 (15.0%): Generation X (aged 42 to 53)  
  72,562,397 (22.2%): Baby Boom generation (aged 54 to 72)  
  20,935,756 (  6.4%): Swing generation (aged 73 to 85)  
    5,611,243 (  1.7%): World War II generation (aged 86-plus)

Note: The Recession generation was born in 2010 or later; the iGeneration was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; the Swing generation was born from 1933 through 1945; the WW II generation was born in 1932 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010–2018

Keeping Track of American Freshmen

For more than 50 years, the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA has been keeping track of the characteristics, attitudes, and behavior of each incoming class of college freshmen. It all started in 1966, the year when boomers born in 1948 turned 18 and (some) headed off to college. In that year, just 50 percent of high school graduates went to college—59 percent of men and 43 percent of women. Men's college enrollment far surpassed women's because many men were trying to avoid being drafted and sent to Vietnam.

Skip ahead to 2017, when a much larger 67 percent of high school graduates were enrolled in college by October following high school graduation—61 percent of men and 72 percent of women, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Times have changed. College freshmen have changed—in some ways, but not in others.

Parents of college freshmen are more highly educated: Only 30 percent of the fathers and 20 percent of the mothers of 1966 college freshmen had a college degree themselves. Today, the great majority of college freshmen have parents who graduated from college.

Worry level is the same: Most college freshmen in 1966 had some (57 percent) or a lot (8 percent) of worries about paying for college. The figures were almost the same in 2017, with 54 percent of having some worries and 12 percent having major worries. The percentage of freshmen with no worries was identical in the two years at 34 percent.

Political views are about the same: Liberals accounted for 36 percent of college freshmen in 2017, down slightly from the 39 percent of 1970 (the first year the survey included this question). Another 22 percent of college students identified themselves as conservative in 2017, up slightly from the 18 percent of 1970. The plurality of college students identified themselves as middle of the road in both years—41 percent in 2017 and 43 percent in 1970.

Goals have changed: Making money is much more important than it used to be. Having a philosophy of life is much less important. Family goals have not changed. Fully 82.5 percent of college freshmen in 2017 said "being very well off financially" was a very important or essential objective, up from 42 percent who felt that way in 1966. Only 48 percent of college freshmen in 2017 said "developing a philosophy of life" was very important or essential, down from 86 percent in 1967 (the first year of the question). Family life continues to be very important or essential to the same share of college freshmen in 2017 as in 1969 (the first year of the question)—71.0 and 71.5 percent, respectively.

Most still think they are above average: The great majority of college freshmen in 1966 and in 2017 considered themselves to be above average or in the highest 10 percent in academic ability, drive to achieve, and understanding of others.

Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2017 and The American Freshman: Fifty-Year Trends 1966–2015

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, first quarter 2019: 58.3%

The Census Bureau is back on schedule in releasing its homeownership statistics, with the first quarter numbers showing little change in the overall homeownership rate. The latest numbers suggest that the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds is inching upward, however. In the first quarter of 2019, the age group's homeownership rate remained above the 58 percent threshold, a line crossed in the fourth quarter of 2018 for the first time since 2011. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. The rate dipped as low as 54.6 percent in 2015, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The recent upward trend in the homeownership rate of the age group is likely due to the full-employment economy. 

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds fell to 47.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019, after surpassing 48 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2018. These bobbles are not statistically significant. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, identical to the rate one year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Coal Miners Aren't the Only Ones Whose Jobs Are Disappearing

In just 10 years, the number of bookstores in the United States fell from 12,558 to 7,548—a 40 percent decline, according to the Census Bureau's County Business Patterns. The number of book publishers fell 23 percent, and libraries were down 16 percent.

Number of bookstores
2016:    7,548
2006:  12,558

Number of book publishers
2016: 2,574
2006: 3,335

Number of libraries
2016: 2,223
2006: 2,650

Employment in these three types of establishments fell 32 percent between 2006 and 2016—from 267,210 to 181,700. The 86,000 jobs lost in the book industry greatly exceeded the loss of 30,200 coal mining jobs during the same time period.

Source: Census Bureau, World Book and Copyright Day: April 23, 2019

Feeling (Too) Upbeat about Retirement

Two-thirds of American workers (67 percent) are confident they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout their retirement years, according to the 2019 EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey. The percentage of workers who feel good about what lies ahead hasn't been this high since 2004—before the Great Recession.

But in reality, many workers may not be on track for a comfortable retirement. Nearly half (49 percent) have saved less than $50,000. Only 42 percent have saved $100,000 or more. These figures are low, in part, because many workers do not work for an employer who provides a workplace retirement savings plan. But even among workers with a workplace plan, just 51 percent have saved $100,000 or more. Despite meager savings, 82 percent of workers expect a workplace retirement savings plan to be a source of income in retirement, and 51 percent expect it to be a major source.

Savings of workers and spouses (excluding value of home and defined-benefit plans)
40% have saved less than $25,000
  9% have saved $25,000 to $49,999
  9% have saved $50,000 to $99,999
19% have saved $100,000 to $249,999
23% have saved $250,000 or more

Maybe workers need help with their retirement planning? Nope. Fully 65 percent are confident in their ability to choose the right retirement products or investments. When asked what backs up this confidence—what sources of information they use for retirement planning—the largest share of workers (29 percent) say they don't use any of the listed items—not their employer, not a financial advisor, no online calculators, no Google searches, no websites, no tips from family or friends. The 29 percent who say they use none of these things exceeds the 23 percent who say they use a professional financial advisor.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute and Greenwald and Associates, 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey

Voter Turnout Surged in 2018 Midterm Election

Fifty-three percent of American citizens aged 18 or older voted in the 2018 midterm election. That may not sound like much, but it is the highest midterm turnout in four decades, according to the Census Bureau. The 11.5 percentage-point increase in turnout between 2014 and 2018 was historic. Never before has turnout increased so much from one midterm to the next.

Percent of citizens who voted in 2018 (and 2014)
Total, 18-plus:  53.4% (41.9%)
Aged 18 to 24: 32.4% (17.1%)
Aged 25 to 44: 46.3% (32.5%)
Aged 45 to 64: 59.5% (49.6%)
Aged 65-plus:  66.1% (59.4%)

Turnout increased in every age group, but the gain was greatest among 18-to-24-year-olds. The percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds who voted in 2018 was nearly double what it was in 2014—climbing from 17.1 to 32.4 percent, a 15.3 percentage-point rise. Among people aged 65 or older, turnout increased by just 6.7 percentage points.

In every race and Hispanic origin group, turnout increased by 11 to 13 percentage points between 2014 and 2018. Non-Hispanic Whites were most likely to vote in 2018 (57.5 percent), followed by Blacks (51.4 percent). Fewer than half of Asians (40.2 percent) or Hispanics (40.4 percent) voted in the midterms.

By education, the increase in voter turnout was greatest (12 to 13 percentage points) among those with some college or more education. Among those without a high school diploma, turnout increased by just 5 percentage points. The gap in turnout between the most and least educated was nearly 50 percentage points—only 27.2 percent of those without a high school diploma voted in 2018 compared with 74.0 percent of those with a graduate degree.  

The increase in voter turnout was greater in metropolitan areas (a 12.2 percentage-point increase) than in nonmetro areas (7.7 percentage points). Consequently, those who live in metropolitan areas were more likely than nonmetro residents to vote in 2018—53.7 versus 52.1 percent. This was a reversal of the 2014 pattern.

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2018 and Behind the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election Turnout

County Population Trends, 2010 to 2018

Between 2010 and 2018, the nation's most urban counties grew faster than any other county type, according to the Census Bureau's county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2018 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents ongoing metro growth and continuing rural decline. But patterns are changing.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,000-plus counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2018 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2018 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 7.6% for counties in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 6.2% for counties in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 4.1% for counties in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.5% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, adjacent to metro
5. 1.7% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, not adjacent to metro
6. –1.0% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, adjacent to metro
7. –1.6% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, not adjacent to metro 
8. –1.0% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, adjacent to metro 
9. –1.9% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, not adjacent to metro 

The long-term pattern has been one of urban growth—the more urban, the greater the growth. But an examination of annual growth rates reveals important changes. Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum (the most urban) grew faster than any other county type in every year between 2010 and 2017. But between 2017 and 2018, the growth rate of rank 1 counties slipped below that of rank 2 counties—an increase of 0.72 percent for rank 1 counties versus a slightly larger 0.75 percent increase for rank 2 counties. Behind the slower growth of rank 1 counties are small declines between 2017 and 2018 in the populations of the three largest metro areas —New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. 

Conversely, some nonmetropolitan counties that had been steadily losing population are now making small gains. Rank 6 and 8 counties grew slightly in both 2017 and 2018, but those gains were not large enough to make up for losses earlier in the decade.  

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2018

Median Age of People Who Walk To Work: 33

American workers have a median age of 42, according to the Census Bureau's 2017 American Community Survey. But the median age of workers varies by how they get to work—a matter of importance to transportation planners and businesses that market to commuters. Here are the median ages of workers by their primary means of transportation to work, from oldest to youngest...

Age 47: work at home
Age 43: drive alone
Age 39: carpool
Age 38: public transportation
Age 38: taxi, motorcycle, bicycle
Age 33: walk

Source: Census Bureau, American Factfinder, American Community Survey

Only 50% of Americans Belong to a Church

Only half of Americans aged 18 or older belong to a church, synagogue, or mosque, according to Gallup survey. The 50 percent of 2018 is a record low and down from 70 percent in 1999. Behind the decline, says Gallup, is the growing share of the population without a religious preference. That share climbed from 8 to 19 percent in the past two decades. Not only is church membership declining in successively younger generations, but it is also falling over time within generations...

Church membership in 2016–2018 (and 1998–2000)
Millennials: 42% (NA)
Gen Xers: 54% (62%)
Boomers: 57% (67%)
Older Americans: 68% (77%)

In 2016–2018, church membership was lowest among men (47 percent), people under age 30 (41 percent), Hispanics (45 percent), people in the West (43 percent), and liberals (37 percent). Church membership was highest among people aged 65 or older (64 percent), non-Hispanic Blacks (65 percent), people in the South (58 percent), Republicans (69 percent), and conservatives (67 percent).

Source: Gallup, U.S. Church Membership Down Sharply in Past Two Decades

Reaching Out for Financial Advice in Old Age

Older Americans might be in trouble. They control a large share of the nation's wealth, yet many are not prepared to manage it. Cognitive abilities decline with age, and most older Americans eschew financial advice. Those are some of the findings of a National Bureau of Economic Research analysis of the 2016 Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal survey of people aged 50 or older. NBER researchers added several questions about financial advice to the HRS, which also measures cognitive ability and financial literacy. The goal of the study was to determine how cognitive ability and financial literacy influence the quantity and quality of the financial advice sought by older Americans.

One of the study's major findings is how infrequently older Americans seek financial advice. Only 35 percent of respondents had reached out for guidance on handling their finances. Another major finding of the study: seeking financial advice is not influenced by cognitive ability or financial literacy. In other words, cognitive ability and financial literacy have no affect on the quantity of financial advice sought by older Americans.

The quality of financial advice is another matter. "More cognitively able and financially literate respondents tend to seek professional financial advice, rather than seeking casual help from family/friends," the authors report. Respondents with greater cognitive ability and financial literacy are more distrustful of financial advisors in general and especially wary of "free" financial advice from advisors who shroud their fees. The quality of financial advice is influenced by cognitive ability and financial literacy, the researchers conclude.

"Low cognitive ability and poor financial literacy can be a barrier to receiving quality financial advice," conclude the authors, "suggesting that researchers and policymakers may need to find new ways to evaluate and monitor financial behavior in an aging population."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, How Cognitive Ability and Financial Literacy Shape the Demand for Financial Advice at Older Ages, Working Paper 25750 ($5.00)

Most Americans Have Three or More Siblings

How many brothers and sisters do Americans aged 18 or older have? The 2018 General Social Survey asks about siblings with the question, "How many brothers and sisters did you have? Please count those born alive but no longer living, as well as those alive now. Also include stepbrothers and stepsisters, and children adopted by your parents."

Number of siblings
None: 4%
One: 21%
Two: 21%
Three: 16%
Four: 10%
Five: 7%
Six: 6%
Seven: 5%
Eight: 3%
Nine: 2%
Ten or more: 4%

Among all Americans aged 18 or older, the 54 percent majority have (or had) three or more siblings. But there are differences by age. Among adults aged 50 or older, fully 61 percent have (or had) three or more siblings. Among adults under age 50, a smaller 49 percent have (or had) three or more siblings.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

How Many Participate in Sports or Exercise on an Average Day?

Nearly one in five Americans aged 15 or older (19 percent) participates in sports, exercise, or recreation on an average day, according to the American Time Use Survey. Of the many sports and recreational activities in which people participate, fewer than two dozen attract at least 1 million enthusiasts on an average day. Here they are...

Number (and %) of people aged 15-plus participating in sport/exercise on average day, 2017
1. Walking: 16.6 million (6.4%)
2. Working out (unspecified): 9.0 million (3.5%)
3. Weightlifting/strength training: 7.9 million (3.1%)
4. Running: 4.9 million (1.9%)
5. Swimming/water sports: 4.2 million (1.6%)
6. Biking: 2.6 million (1.0%)
7. Doing yoga: 1.9 million (0.7%)
8. Using cardiovascular equipment: 1.8 million (0.7%)
9. Playing basketball: 1.6 million (0.6%)
10. Playing soccer: 1.1 million (0.4%)
11. Golfing: 1.0 million (0.4%)

These figures do not include all those who bicycle or walk to work, which is logged as travel related to work rather than sports or exercise. In 2017, about 800,000 people usually bicycled to work and 4 million usually walked to work, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2017 American Time Use Survey

2.3 Million Fewer Households with Children

The number of households with children under age 18 has fallen by more than 2 million since 2007 (the year births peaked in the U.S.), according to the Census Bureau...

Number of households with children under age 18
2018: 34,452,000
2007: 36,757,000
Change: –2.3 million

As of 2018, only 27 percent of households included children under age 18, a record low. The share of households with children was as high as 49 percent in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Family Tables

Most Gen X Households Have a Dog

Overall, 61 percent of American households have a pet, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. Among Gen Xers, the share is 66 percent, making them the most pet-friendly generation. This makes sense, since many acquired pets as they married and had children. Millennials are in the process of doing the same.

Percent of households with pets by generation, 2018

	Any pet	Dog	Cat
Total households	61%	46%	25%
Millennials	60	43	23
Generation Xers	66	53	28
Boomers	62	50	23
Older Americans	45	33	18

Boomers are about as likely as Millennials to have a pet. Among older Americans (the Silent and World War II generations) fewer than half of households have a pet. Many once had a pet, however. When asked whether they had a pet five years ago, 57 percent of older Americans said yes.

Note: In 2018, Millennials were aged 24 to 41, Generation Xers were aged 42 to 53, Baby Boomers were aged 54 to 72, and Older Americans were aged 73 or older.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Blacks and Whites Disagree about Racial Discrimination

Which is the bigger problem for the United States: people seeing racial discrimination where it really does NOT exist, or people NOT seeing racial discrimination where it really DOES exist?

That's a necessarily wordy question designed to reveal stark differences in the public's attitudes toward racial discrimination. And reveal them it does. When Pew Research Center asked Americans this question, the great majority of Asians (71 percent), Blacks (84 percent), and Hispanics (67 percent) all said the bigger problem is turning a blind eye to the racial discrimination that really does exist. Only 48 percent of non-Hispanic Whites agreed...

The bigger problem is NOT seeing racial discrimination where it really DOES exist
Asians: 71%
Blacks: 84%
Hispanics: 67%
Non-Hispanic Whites: 48%

There are deep divisions among non-Hispanic Whites on this issue, however. Young adults are most likely to believe the bigger problem is refusing to acknowledge racial discrimination, with 61 percent of adults under age 30 feeling that way. A smaller 40 to 49 percent of those aged 30 or older agree. By education, 59 percent of non-Hispanic White college graduates believe not seeing racial discrimination where it really does exist is the bigger problem. Only 42 percent of those with less education feel the same way. The deepest divide is by party affiliation. Fully 77 percent of non-Hispanic White Republicans believe the bigger problem is seeing racial discrimination where it really does not exist. Fully 78 percent of non-Hispanic White Democrats believe the bigger problem is not seeing racial discrimination where it really does exist.

Source: Pew Research Center, Race in America 2019

Student Loans Lower Black Wealth

The wealth gap between Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites is huge. The median household wealth of non-Hispanic Whites was nearly 10 times that of Blacks in 2016—$171,000 versus $17,409, according to an Urban Institute analysis of the Survey of Consumer Finances. While higher rates of homeownership among non-Hispanic Whites are the primary reason for this gap, another reason is student loan debt. Black households are more likely than non-Hispanic White households to have student loans, and Blacks owe more than non-Hispanic Whites. The percentage of Black households with student loan debt has more than doubled since 1989.

Percentage of Black households headed by people aged 25 to 55 with student loan debt, 1989 to 2016 (and average amount owed in 2016 dollars)

2016: 41.8% ($14,225)

2007: 28.3% (  $6,111)

2001: 18.5% (  $2,224)
1989: 17.9% (  $1,161)

Among non-Hispanic White households headed by people aged 25 to 55, a smaller 34 percent had student loan debt in 2016, owing an average of $11,108.

Source: Urban Institute, Nine Charts about Wealth Inequality in America (Updated)

Homeownership by Age in 2018

The nation's 64.4 percent homeownership rate in 2018 was significantly higher than the 63.4 percent post-Great Recession low of 2016, according to Census Bureau data. But most age groups are simply treading water, with small or no increases in homeownership during the past two years. Not so for householders aged 30 to 39, their homeownership rates climbing by a statistically significant 2.3 percentage points between 2016 and 2018.

Homeownership rate by age in 2018 and 2016

	2018	2016	percentage-point change
Total households	64.4%	63.4%	1.0
Under age 25	22.7	21.9	0.8
Aged 25 to 29	32.5	30.9	1.6
Aged 30 to 34	47.7	45.4	2.3
Aged 35 to 39	57.6	55.3	2.3
Aged 40 to 44	62.9	62.0	0.9
Aged 45 to 49	68.4	66.7	1.7
Aged 50 to 54	71.7	71.6	0.1
Aged 55 to 59	74.0	74.0	0.0
Aged 60 to 64	76.8	76.1	0.7
Aged 65 or older	78.5	78.8	-0.3

Despite these gains, the homeownership rates of householders in their thirties remain well below not only what they were during the housing bubble, but also below the historical average prior to the bubble. From 1982 (the first year of the data series) through 1999, for example, the average homeownership rate of 30-to 34-year-olds was 53.0 percent—more than 5 percentage points higher than their 2018 rate. The average homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds during those years was 63.6 percent, fully 6 percentage points higher than their 2018 rate.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Nearly 1/3 of Least Educated in Labor Force Are "Underutilized"

Seventeen percent of the labor force is "underutilized," according to an analysis by the National Center for Education Statistics of data from the Adult Training and Education Survey, part of the 2016 National Household Education Surveys Program. The survey defines the underutilized as the unemployed, those who have a part-time job but would prefer full-time employment, and those who have a temporary job but would prefer a permanent position. The percentage of labor force participants who are underutilized is highest among the least educated...

Percent of labor force participants who are "underutilized" by education
32% of high school dropouts
21% of high school graduates only
18% of those with some college
16% of those with an associate's degree
11% of those with a bachelor's degree
11% of those with a graduate degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Relationship between Educational Attainment and Labor Force Underutilization

Are You a Have or a Have-Not?

Most Americans (58 percent) do not think the U.S. is divided into Haves and Have-nots, according to a Gallup Survey. While this figure is lower than the 71 percent of 1989, it is higher than the 49 percent of 2008 (in the midst of the Great Recession).

Those most likely to think the country is divided are Democrats (57 percent) and Blacks (70 percent). A smaller 24 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of non-Hispanic Whites agree. Hispanic attitudes mirror those of non-Hispanic Whites, with just 38 percent believing that the country is divided into Haves and Have-nots.

Although the majority of the public does not believe the country is divided into Haves and Have-nots, most Americans can readily classify themselves as one or the other. Fifty-six percent of the public sees itself as a Have, very close to the 58 percent who deny that the U.S. is divided in such a way. Could it be that the Haves are in denial? Those most likely to see themself as a Have are those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (81 percent), college graduates (71 percent), non-Hispanic Whites (64 percent), and Republicans (71 percent).

Overall, 36 percent of Americans identify themselves as a Have-not. Those most likely to see themselves this way are those with household incomes below $40,000, those who did not graduate from college (43 percent), Blacks and Hispanics (57 percent), and political independents (45 percent).

Source: Gallup, Majority Rejects Idea of Haves, Have-Nots Divide in U.S.

Homeownership Rate Rises Again in 2018

One year ago the nation's homeownership rate posted its first increase in more than a decade. At the time, Demo Memo asked, "Could it be the start of a trend?"

One year later and the answer is...complicated. The homeownership rate is continuing to rise, climbing to 64.4 percent in 2018, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVC). This is 1.0 percentage point higher than the post-Great Recession low of 63.4 percent recorded in 2016. Despite the increase, however, the 2018 homeownership rate remains relatively low. It is the fourth lowest rate of the 2000s (surpassing only the rates in 2015, 2016, and 2017).

Homeownership rate for selected years
2018: 64.4%
2017: 63.9%
2016: 63.4% (post Great Recession low)
2015: 63.7%
2010: 66.9%
2004: 69.0% (all-time peak)
2000: 67.4%
1990: 63.9%
1980: 65.6%
1970: 64.2%

But perhaps comparing today's homeownership rate with the pumped-up rates of the housing bubble does not provide the necessary perspective. It might be more instructive to compare the 2018 rate to homeownership rates prior to the housing bubble. During the 30-year span from 1970 to 2000, the homeownership rate ranged from a low of 63.8 percent in 1988 to a high of 66.8 percent in 1999. The average rate during the time period was 64.7 percent, almost identical to the 64.4 percent of 2018. This exercise suggests, then, that today's homeownership rate is not the new normal. It's the old normal. 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Most Americans Support LGBT Protections

Most Americans agree: there should be nondiscrimination protections for the LGBT population. Fully 69 percent of the public favors "laws that would protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people against discrimination in jobs, public accommodations, and housing," finds a PRRI survey.

The majority of every religious group, men, women, every age group, and every race and Hispanic origin group supports laws against LGBT discrimination. By religious affiliation, support ranges from a high of 90 percent among Unitarians to a low of 53 percent among Jehovah Witnesses. By party affiliation, 79 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of Republicans favor such laws. Good news, right?

But dig a little deeper into the PRRI survey results, and a contradiction emerges. Another question in the survey asks Americans whether they favor or oppose religiously-based service refusals of the LGBT population—in other words, can a small business owner refuse to provide products or services to the LGBT population if doing so violates the owner's religious beliefs. Fifty-seven percent of the public opposes service refusals. Note that this 57 percent is smaller than the 69 percent of the public that favors nondiscrimination protections. A PRRI analysis of the results finds that fully 23 percent of Americans hold contradictory views—they favor nondiscrimination laws to protect the LGBT population but would allow a small business owner to discriminate against the LBGT population based on the owner's religious beliefs.

Source; PRRI, Fifty Years After Stonewall: Widespread Support for LGBT Issues—Findings from American Values Atlas 2018

Attitudes toward Marijuana Legalization by Generation

Americans may not agree on much, but they are close to a consensus on the legalization of marijuana. Two-thirds of the public (66 percent) says the use of marijuana should be legal, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. This is up from 48 percent who felt that way in 2010 and just 33 percent who favored it in 2000.

Percent who think the use of marijuana should be legal by generation, 2018
Millennials: 76%
Gen Xers: 62%
Boomers: 62%
Older: 34%

While support for the legalization of marijuana has been growing for more than a decade, the biggest gains have occurred since 2010. The percentage of Millennials who favor legalization jumped by 20 percentage points between 2010 and 2018—from 56 to 76 percent. Support from Gen Xers climbed 19 percentage points during those years. Interestingly, Boomers were more supportive than Gen Xers in 2010 (54 versus 43 percent), but the two generations are now equally in favor. The generations that precede the Baby Boom (Silent and World War II) are the only ones who have not yet embraced the idea. They probably never will. The percentage of older Americans who favor legalization increased by just 2 percentage points between 2010 and 2018.

Note: In 2018, Millennials were aged 24 to 41, Generation Xers were aged 42 to 53, Baby Boomers were aged 54 to 72, and Older Americans were aged 73 or older.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Older Women Are the 3rd Biggest Game Players

On an average day, 11 percent of Americans aged 15 or older play games, according to the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). This time use category includes not only computer and video games but also board and card games. Young men are most likely to play games on an average day, with 43 percent of men aged 15 to 19 and 29 percent of those aged 20 to 24 doing so. But look who is in third place...

Percent who play games on an average day (top five demographic segments)
43% of men aged 15 to 19
29% of men aged 20 to 24
17% of women aged 65 or older
15% of men aged 25 to 34
14% of women aged 20 to 24

Don't assume women aged 65 or older are playing only bridge or Bunco. According to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey, a substantial 30 percent of women aged 50 or older say they sometimes/often play video games.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2017 American Time Use Survey

Median Household Income Falls Slightly

Median household income in February 2019 was $63,378, according to Sentier Research. This median is slightly less than the January 2019 record high, after adjusting for inflation. Behind the decline is February's 0.2 percent uptick in the Consumer Price Index. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

The February 2019 median was 1.9 percent higher than the February 2018 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was 15.0 percent higher than the post-Great Recession low reached in June 2011 ($55,134)—a bottom hit two years after the official end of the Great Recession.

Sentier's Household Income Index for February 2019 was 103.9 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, after adjusting for inflation, the February 2019 median was just 3.9 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: February 2019

How's The American Dream Doing?

Every two years, when the results of the General Social Survey are released, we gain insight into the wellbeing of the American Dream—the promise that hard work and perseverance will lead to a rising standard of living. The GSS has been probing attitudes toward the American Dream since 1987 by asking the public whether it agrees or disagrees with the statement, "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living."

The American Dream is doing better, according to the latest survey. In 2018, 65 percent of the public agreed with the statement, up from 58 percent in 2016 and just 55 percent in 2012. The percentage of Americans who feel that the American Dream is working for them hasn't been above 60 percent since 2006—just before the Great Recession.

"The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living" (percent who agree)
2018: 65.3%
2016: 58.1%
2014: 59.4%
2012: 54.8% (low point)
2010: 58.0%
2008: 59.4%
2006: 69.8%

The economic recovery probably has a lot to do with the more optimistic attitude toward economic mobility in the United States. Nearly every demographic segment is feeling better, with especially large leaps between 2016 and 2018 for Boomers (agreement rising from 50 to 60 percent), non-Hispanic Whites (agreement rising from 53 to 65 percent), and residents of the South (agreement rising from 55 to 71 percent).

One demographic segment, however, is not feeling better about the American Dream. Only 55 percent of Blacks in 2018 agreed that they had a good chance of improving their standard of living, down from 63 percent who felt that way in 2016.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Global Warming: 51% Are Concerned Believers

The threat of global warming is making inroads into the consciousness of the American public. In the latest Gallup environmental survey, 51 percent of adults aged 18 or older are what Gallup calls Concerned Believers. Gallup defines this group as "highly worried about global warming, think it will pose a serious threat in their lifetime, believe it's the result of human activity, and think news reports about it are accurate or underestimate the problem." The 51 percent of 2019 is not statistically different from what Gallup has measured in each year since 2016, but it is significantly higher than the level recorded in the years prior to 2016, when it ranged from 33 to 39 percent.

Another 30 percent of Americans are what Gallup calls the Mixed Middle, and 20 percent are Cool Skeptics. The attitudes of Cool Skeptics are the opposite of Concerned Believers. Gallup describes them this way: "They worry little or not at all about global warming, do not think it will pose a serious threat in their lifetime, think it's attributable to natural environmental changes and think the news exaggerates the problem."

Those most likely to be Concerned Believers are women (55 percent), 18-to-29-year-olds (67 percent), college graduates (60 percent), nonwhites (60 percent), and Democrats (77 percent). Those most likely to be Cool Skeptics are men (25 percent), people aged 50 to 64 (26 percent), non-Hispanic Whites (27 percent), and Republicans (52 percent).

Source: Gallup, Americans as Concerned as Ever about Global Warming

How Many Households Have Pets? Now We Know

Pets are a big deal to millions of Americans. The average household spends more on pets than it does on any other entertainment item (pet spending is categorized as entertainment by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey). Despite this importance, good data on pet ownership is hard to find. A January article in the Washington Post called the estimates of pet ownership "fuzzy statistics" because they are all over the place, ranging from a low of 49 percent of households (American Housing Survey) to a high of 68 percent of households (American Pet Products Association), according to the Post article.

Now we have a more precise estimate, thanks to the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey (GSS). The GSS has been conducted biennially since 1972, but not until 2018 did it ask about pet ownership. The finding: 61 percent of households own pets.

What makes this estimate more accurate than others? The GSS pet estimate is better than the American Housing Survey estimate because the GSS pet module was designed specifically to collect data on pet ownership, asking nearly a dozen questions about pets. In contrast, the American Housing Survey asked only a single question, the purpose of which was to provide information for emergency management—would you need assistance in evacuating or sheltering pets? Respondents could answer yes, no, or no pets. It's no surprise that the resulting estimate lowballed pet ownership in the United States.

The GSS estimate is better than the American Pet Products Association (APPA) estimate because of the stellar methodology of the GSS. Starting with a full probability sample design, the GSS is conducted primarily through in-person interviews and has a response rate of more than 60 percent. In contrast, respondents to the APPA survey are recruited online, an "opt-in" methodology that is likely to oversample pet owners. That explains why the APPA data highballed pet ownership.

Back to the 61 percent. That's the great majority of households, folks. The GSS results show that 24 percent of households have one pet, and 36 percent have two or more...

Households by number of pets
No pets: 39%
1 pet: 24%
2 pets: 14%
3 or more pets: 22%

A substantial 46 percent of households have dogs and 25 percent have cats. A handful of households have birds (4 percent), fish (4 percent), small mammals such as gerbils (4 percent), reptiles (3 percent), and horses (1 percent).

When those living without pets are asked why they have resisted the call of the wild, the single most common reason is that they are too busy (36 percent). Another 20 percent say they simply aren't interested. Allergies or health risks are cited by 13 percent, and residential restrictions prevent 11 percent from becoming pet owners.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey

How Does the Public Feel about a Nonwhite Majority?

A shockingly large percentage of the American public does not look favorably on the day when Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities will outnumber non-Hispanic Whites—a threshold we may cross in 2045, according to Census Bureau projections. When asked whether a majority nonwhite population will strengthen or weaken American culture, 38 percent of the public says it will weaken American customs and values, according to a Pew Research Center survey of the public's attitudes toward a changing America.

It gets worse. When responses are broken down by race and Hispanic origin. Nearly half of Whites (46 percent) say a majority nonwhite population will weaken American culture. A smaller 18 percent of Blacks and 25 percent of Hispanics agree.

When asked whether having a majority nonwhite population by the year 2050 will be good or bad for the country, 23 percent of total adults say it will be bad. Some are more likely to feel this way than others. Twenty-eight percent of non-Hispanic Whites think it will be bad versus 13 percent of Blacks and 12 percent of Hispanics. Twenty-nine percent of people aged 65 or older say it will be bad versus 15 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds. Thirty-seven percent of Republicans don't like the idea versus 12 percent of Democrats.

The good news in these disturbing findings is that the percentage of Americans who think a majority nonwhite population will be good for the country is larger than the percentage who think it will be bad (35 versus 23 percent). And the percentage who say it will be neither good nor bad (42 percent) is even larger.

Source: Pew Research Center, Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts

Shrinking Share of Older Women Live Alone

Nearly 15 percent of women aged 15 or older (14.6 percent) lived by themselves in 2018. This figure has been slowly rising for decades, mostly because of the aging of the population. Older adults are more likely than their younger counterparts to live alone, and as the population ages, lone living is becoming more common overall. But the opposite is true for older women. As death rates for the two biggest killers—heart disease and cancer—have fallen among men, widowhood (and lone living) is being delayed.

Among women aged 65 to 74, the percentage who live alone fell by 7 percentage points between 1990 and 2018—from 33 to 26 percent. Among women aged 75 or older, the decline was nearly 10 percentage points during those years...

Percent of women aged 75 or older who live alone
2018: 44.2
2010: 47.3
2000: 49.4
1990: 54.0

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey

Differences in Earnings of Husbands and Wives

How do husbands and wives compare in earnings? Not surprisingly, most husbands earn more. In 2018, the 54 percent majority of husbands earned at least $5,000 more than their wives...

Earnings difference between husbands and wives, 2018
54% of husbands earn at least $5,000 more than their wives
25% of husbands and wives earn within $4,999 of one another
20% of wives earn at least $5,000 more than their husbands

These figures have changed some since 2000. The percentage of husbands who earn at least $5,000 more than their wives fell from 59 percent in 2000 to the 54 percent of today. The percentage of wives who earn at least $5,000 more than their husbands grew from 15 percent in 2000 to the 20 percent of 2018. The 25 percent of husbands and wives who earn within $4,999 of one another in 2018 is almost identical to the 26 percent of 2000.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Families and Living Arrangements 2018

How Was Your Winter?

Colder than normal? Warmer than normal? It's hard to tell.

Gallup asked a nationally representative sample of Americans in early March whether the winter had been warmer or colder than usual. Then it compared their answers to the February 2019 temperature mean and the historic mean (based on 1900 to 2000 NOAA data). Here are the findings by region...

• In the East: It was 4.4 degrees warmer than average in the East. But 34 percent of the region's residents told Gallup it was colder than usual. Another 42 percent said it was about the same. Only 22 percent reported it being warmer than usual.
• In the Midwest: Midwesterners did better. The Midwest was 4.9 degrees colder than average, and 62 percent of residents reported that it was colder than usual. 
• In the South: It was 3.6 degrees warmer than usual in the South, but only 32 percent of residents felt that way. The 43 percent plurality said it was about the same as usual and 23 percent said it was colder than usual.
• In the West: It was cold in the West, with the average February temperature 6.1 degrees below normal. Western residents felt it, with 64 percent reporting a colder than usual winter. 

How good are we at noticing climate change? Gallup's results show that we get it right only about half the time.

Source: Gallup, More Attributing Colder and Warmer Weather to Climate Change than in Past

The Lost Men

The labor force participation rate of prime-age men (25 to 54) has declined over the past few decades. No one is sure why this has happened, although many have tried to explain it. A National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Ariel J. Binder and John Bound offers an intriguing theory.

First, some context. Most of the decline in men's labor force participation has occurred among men without a college degree. To determine why this is, Binder and Bound examined a number of factors such as a decline in wages for less-educated men, the availability of disability benefits, and the rise of mass incarceration. None of these factors alone is enough to explain the decline. So the researchers suggest that the disruption of the marriage market among less-educated men is also at work. "We claim that the prospect of forming and providing for a new family constitutes an important male labor supply incentive." This incentive has disappeared among less-educated men because "fewer men are actively involved in family provision or can expect to be involved in the future. This removes a labor supply incentive."

The researchers provide data that show just how elusive marriage has become for prime age men without a college degree. This is just one set of data points from their research...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are currently married, 1970 and 2015

Currently married	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	38%	83%
Aged 35 to 44	58	90
Aged 45 to 54	61	89

The marriage rate among white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma has fallen by a stunning 45 percentage points since 1970. The decline is a steep 28 to 32 percentage points for those aged 35 to 54. While marriage rates have fallen for college-educated men as well, the decline has been much more modest, say the researchers.

Without the pressure to support a family, some men simply drop out of the labor force. How do they survive? A growing share of prime age men without a college degree survive by living with their parents. Here are some stats from the study...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are living with their parents, 1970 and 2015

Live with parents	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	25%	10%
Aged 35 to 44	13	4
Aged 45 to 54	9	3

One in four white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma lives with his parents, as do roughly 1 in 10 of his older counterparts. "The possibility of drawing support from one's existing family...creates a feasible labor-force exit," conclude the researchers.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men, NBER Working Paper 25577 ($5)

Many College Students Do Not Earn a Degree

Most high school graduates enroll in college. Many take on student loans to pay for their education. But how successful are they in earning the credentials that will help them boost their earnings for a lifetime? A longitudinal study by the National Center for Education Statistics reveals the not-so-pretty picture.

Through its 2012/17 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, the NCES tracked first-time students who entered postsecondary institutions in 2011–12 to determine how many had earned an educational credential six years later in 2017. Here are the findings...

Highest educational credential attained by Spring 2017

  8.5% had earned a certificate

10.9% had earned an associate's degree

36.8% had earned a bachelor's degree

43.8% had no educational credential 

  

Among the 44 percent who had yet to earn an educational credential, 28 percent were still in school and 72 percent were no longer enrolled in any institution.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Persistence, Retention, and Attainment of 2011–12 First-time Beginning Postsecondary Students as of Spring 2017

Age at which Americans Will Stop Driving

Most automobile owners in the United States do not plan on giving up driving—ever. Sixty-two percent of the nation's drivers say they will continue to drive for the rest of their life, according to an AARP survey...

"At what age do you think you will stop driving?"
Age 60 to 75: 12%
Aged 76-plus: 24%
Never stop driving: 62%
Refused to answer: 2%

Among drivers who say they will stop driving, the average age at which they will turn in their keys is 78 for both Millennials and Gen Xers. Boomers say they will stop driving at an average age of 82.

Source: AARP, Boomers Going the Distance: 2018 Consumer Insights on the Driving Experience

Dementia: the 3rd Leading Cause of Death?

Dementia is a major cause of death. We know that. The government's mortality reports show Alzheimer's disease to be the 6th leading cause of death in the United States. In 2017, Alzheimer's disease killed 121,000 Americans.

But Alzheimer's disease accounts for only a portion of dementia deaths. A much larger 262,000 people died of dementia in 2017, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. If all types of dementias were considered a single cause of death (as they are in some countries), then dementia would be the third leading cause of death in the United States, following heart disease and cancer.

The NCHS report provides a detailed look at dementia deaths by type. Alzheimer's disease is most common, accounting for 46 percent of dementia deaths in 2017. Vascular dementia deaths are another 6 percent, and other types or unspecified dementias account for the rest. Regardless of the type, all dementias have one thing in common—they are debilitating for the individual and devastating for the family. One table in the report reveals the debilitation and devastation: place of death. Most dementia deaths occur in a nursing home, long-term care facility, or hospice. In other words, most patients and families are unable to deal with the consequences of dementia on their own or at home. Among all deaths in the U.S., just 27 percent occur in a nursing home, long-term care facility, or hospice. Among dementia deaths, the figure is 60 percent.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Data, Dementia Mortality in the United States, 2000–2017

Average Household Spending on Travel Tops $1,800

Americans are spending more on travel than ever before. The average household spent $1,852 on travel in 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey. This is 7 percent more than it spent in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. A 7 percent increase doesn't sound like much, but consider this: travel spending fell 15 percent between 2007 and 2010, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Between 2010 and 2017, average household spending on travel grew 26 percent.

Average household spending on travel, 2007 to 2017 (in 2017 dollars)
2017: $1,852
2010: $1,468
2007: $1,735

The single biggest item in the average household's travel budget is lodging, which accounts for 27 percent of total travel spending. Airline fares are second at 24 percent of the budget, and restaurant meals (17 percent) are third. Together, these three items account for two-thirds of household spending on travel. The remaining one-third of the budget is accounted for by a range of items listed here in rank order: recreational expenses on trips, gasoline on trips, alcohol on trips, ship fares, groceries purchased while traveling, local transportation on trips, train fares, luggage, vehicle rentals, parking fees and tolls on trips, and intercity bus fares.

Between 2010 and 2017, average household spending increased on all but two travel budget items, after adjusting for inflation. Average household spending on gasoline fell 18 percent because of lower gas prices. Spending on vehicle rentals fell by a larger 30 percent because of competition from ride-sharing services such as Uber and Lyft.

One of the biggest gains in travel spending was experienced by the category "local transportation on trips," which includes spending on ride-sharing services. Between 2010 and 2017, average household spending on local transportation on trips climbed 45 percent, after adjusting for inflation. In 2010, the average household spent 52 percent more on rented vehicles than on local transportation when traveling. Ride-sharing has reversed this pattern. In 2017, the average household spent 36 percent more on local transportation than on rented vehicles when traveling.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Driving Alone to Work: Top and Bottom Metros

Most Americans drive alone to work, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Nationwide, the percentage of workers aged 16 or older who commute alone in an automobile stood at 76 percent in 2017. The figure varies by metropolitan area.

The five metros with the most lone drivers
The five metropolitan areas with the largest share of lone drivers are all in the South: Dothan, AL (89 percent); Wheeling, WV (89 percent); Owensboro, KY (88 percent); Huntsville, AL (88 percent); and Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL (88 percent). One reason for these above-average figures is a lack of public transportation. The percentage of workers in these metros who use public transportation to get to work ranges from 0.0 to 0.5 percent.

The five metros with the fewest lone drivers
All five metropolitan areas with the smallest share of lone drivers are in the Northeast or West: New York (50 percent); San Francisco (57 percent); Ithaca, NY (58 percent); Boulder, CO (64 percent); and Corvallis, OR (66 percent). In New York and San Francisco, the availability and popularity of public transportation is the biggest factor reducing the percentage of workers who drive alone. In the New York metro, 31 percent of workers commute on public transportation. In San Francisco, the figure is 17 percent. Among metropolitan areas, New York and San Francisco are the ones with the highest use of public transportation.

Driving to work alone is relatively low in the other three metropolitan areas for different reasons.

• Ithaca, NY, distinguishes itself as the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who walk to work—12.5 percent did so in 2017. Additionally, a relatively large 10 percent of Ithaca workers work at home. 
• Boulder, CO, is the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who work at home—13.6 percent. Also, Boulder ranks second among metropolitan areas in the percentage of workers who commute to work by bicycle (4.6 percent). 
• Corvallis, OR, is the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who bicycle to work—6.8 percent in 2017. Additionally, it has a relatively large share of workers who walk to work (7.6 percent) or who work at home (8.7 percent). 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2017 American Community Survey

"No Religious Preference" Now and in Childhood

Only 9 percent of Americans were raised without a religious preference, according to the General Social Survey. But a substantial 22 percent now say they have no religious preference. In each generation, the percentage who currently have no religious preference is at least twice as large as the percentage who were raised without a religious preference...

Percent with no religious preference today (and in childhood)
iGeneration: 28% (11%)
Millennials: 32% (13%)
Gen Xers: 21% (10%)
Boomers: 15% (5%)
Older: 11% (3%)

Note: In 2016 the iGeneration was 18 to 21, Millennials were 22 to 39, Gen Xers were 40 to 51; Baby Boomers were 52 to 70, and older Americans were 71 or older.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 General Social Survey

Baby Food Spending Plunges

The ongoing baby bust is being felt in at least one grocery store aisle. Average household spending on baby food fell 64 percent between 2007 (the year births peaked in the U.S.) and 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Average household spending on baby food (in 2017 dollars)
2017: $18.16
2010: $40.19
2007: $50.05

Beyond the decline in births, the other factor dragging down spending on baby food is the greater propensity of parents to make their own rather than relying on the store bought variety. That helps to explain why spending on baby food fell more than twice as much as spending on infants' clothes during the past decade. Between 2007 and 2017, average household spending on clothes for children under age 2 fell from $110 to $77, after adjusting for inflation—a 30 percent decline.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Slowdown Ahead for College Enrollment

The nation's colleges should prepare for slower growth, according to a new set of projections by the National Center for Education Statistics. Enrollment in post-secondary institutions grew 9 percent between 2007 and 2017. Between 2017 and 2027, the gain should be only 3 percent. Enrollment growth will slow in every age group and for both men and women.

Some enrollment declines are forecast as well. NCES projects enrollment by race and Hispanic origin only for U.S. residents and not for foreign students. Among U.S. residents enrolled in college, NCES projects a decline in non-Hispanic Whites and growth for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics in the decade ahead...

Percent change in college enrollment of U.S. residents, 2017 to 2027
Asians: 8.7%
Blacks: 5.8%
Hispanics: 13.3%
Non-Hispanic Whites: –6.9%

By 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 48 percent of the nation's college students, down from 53 percent in 2017.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

Characteristics of Nursing Home Residents

More than 1.3 million Americans lived in the nation's 15,600 nursing homes in 2015–16, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' National Study of Long-Term Care Providers. Despite the aging of the population, the nursing home population is shrinking. There were a larger 1.5 million nursing home residents in 2000 compared to the 1.3 million counted by the latest survey. Here are the characteristics of nursing home residents in 2015–16...

• 65 percent are women
• 84 percent are aged 65 or older, and 65 percent are aged 75 or older
• 75 percent are non-Hispanic White, 14 percent Black, and just 5 percent Hispanic
• 48 percent have been diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease or another dementia
• 60 percent need help eating, 87 percent need help transferring in and out of a chair or bed, 89 percent need help toileting, and more than 90 percent need help bathing, dressing, and walking
• 62 percent are dependent on Medicaid to pay their nursing home costs

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Long-Term Care Providers and Services Users in the United States, 2015–2016

Highest Paying Occupation by Education, 2017

Want your children or grandchildren to make a lot of money? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suggestions for them, depending on how long they want to stay in school. It has identified the occupations with the highest annual wage for each educational attainment category. Not only that, the BLS has projected the number of job openings for those occupations during the 2016 to 2026 time period.

Doctoral or professional degree: Anesthesiologist
Mean annual wage: $265,990
Job openings 2016–26: 1,400

Masters degree: Nurse anesthetist
Median annual wage: $165,120
Job openings 2016–26: 2,800

Bachelor's degree: Chief executive
Median annual wage: $183,270
Job openings 2016–26: 20,000

Associate's degree: Air traffic controller
Median annual wage: $124,540
Job openings 2016–26: 2,400

Postsecondary nondegree award: Electricial repairer, powerhouse, substation, and relay
Median annual wage: $78,140
Job openings 2016–26: 2,100

High school diploma: Nuclear power reactor operator
Median annual wage: $93,370
Job openings 2016–26: 500

No formal educational credential: Mine shuttle car operator
Median annual wage: $56,890
Job openings 2016–26: 100

Note that many of these occupations do not have a lot of openings projected for the decade ahead. Not to worry. The BLS has alternatives. Here are the occupations near (but not at) the top of the pay scale in each educational attainment category that will have the most job openings in the decade ahead, from highest educational attainment to lowest: family practitioner (5,600 openings, $208,560); physician assistant (10,600 openings, $104,860); financial manager (56,900 openings, $125,080); dental hygienist (17,500 openings, $74,070); aircraft mechanic and service technician (10,900 openings, $61,020); detective (7,500 openings, $79,970); service unit operator, oil, gas, and mining (6,400 openings, $48,290).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, High-Wage Occupations by Typical Entry-Level Education, 2017

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2018

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, fourth quarter 2018: 58.9%

After a month's delay because of the government shutdown, the Census Bureau has released the 4th quarter 2018 homeownership statistics. They show an uptick in the homeownership rate of younger adults. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds—the nation's first-time home buyers—increased in the fourth quarter of 2018, rising above 58 percent for the first time since 2011. Post Great Recession, the homeownership rate of the age group dipped as low as 54.6 percent in 2015. It peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. Clearly, there is an upward trend in the homeownership rate of this age group, likely due to the full-employment economy.  

What about their younger counterparts, householders aged 30 to 34, who were once the nation's first-time home buyers? Their homeownership rate rose to 48.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, up from 47.1 percent a year earlier. Before the Great Recession, 30-to-34-year-olds were the nation's first-time home buyers (defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent). But their rate fell below 50 percent in 2011 and has been stuck there ever since. With the recent gains, 30-to-34-year-olds may be on their way to reclaiming first-time homebuyer status.


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, up from 64.2 percent one year earlier. The difference is not statistically significant.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Median Household Income Rises in January 2019

Median household income continues to rise, according to Sentier Research, climbing to $63,688 in January 2019. This was 4.6 percent higher than the January 2000 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was the highest median yet measured by Sentier's household income series, which began in January 2000. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

The January 2019 median was 3.0 percent higher than the January 2018 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was 15.7 percent higher than the post-Great Recession low reached in June 2011 ($55,038)—a bottom hit two years after the official end of the Great Recession.

Sentier's Household Income Index in January 2019 was 104.6 (January 2000 = 100.0). To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: January 2019