Is Voting a Fundamental Right or a Privilege?

It depends. Overall, 57 percent of Americans aged 18 or older say voting is a "fundamental right for every U.S. citizen and should not be restricted," according to a Pew Research Center survey. Another 42 percent of adults say voting is a "privilege that comes with responsibilities and can be limited." But beliefs about voting vary by demographic characteristic and political affiliation. 

• Younger adults are most likely to say voting is a fundamental right, with the figure peaking at 64 percent among 18-to-29-year-olds. Sixty percent of 30-to-49-year-olds agree. Among people aged 50 or older, however, only 50 to 51 percent say voting is a fundamental right. 
• Among Blacks, 77 percent say voting is a fundamental right, as do 66 percent of Asians and 63 percent of Hispanics. Among non-Hispanic whites, only 51 percent say voting is a fundamental right. 
• The biggest gap is by political party affiliation. Fully 78 percent of Democrats say voting is a fundamental right versus just 32 percent of Republicans. The 67 percent majority of Republicans say voting is a privilege that can be limited. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Wide Partisan Divide on whether Voting Is a Fundamental Right or a Privilege with Responsibilities

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, second quarter 2021: 48.0%

Homeownership rates in the second quarter of 2021 are little changed from the first quarter rates and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the second quarter of 2021 was 65.4 percent, not significantly different from the 65.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) was not significantly different from the 48.2 percent recorded in the first quarter of the year.  Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 for selected years, 1982 to 2020 and by quarter in 2021

2021: 48.0% (second quarter)

2021: 48.2% (first quarter)

2020: 49.1% (pandemic bump)

2019: 48.0%

2016: 45.4% (low point)

2015: 45.9%

2011: 49.8% (first time below 50 percent)

2010: 51.6%

2004: 57.4% (high point)

2000: 54.6%

1990: 51.8%

1982: 57.1% 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Leisure Time Expanded in 2020

The amount of time people aged 15 or older spent in leisure activities increased in 2020 compared with 2019—rising from 4.99 to 5.53 hours on an average day, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. Americans devoted more time to many leisure activities including playing games and using the computer for leisure (up 38 percent), reading (16 percent), sports and exercise (16 percent), and watching television (11 percent). 

One of the leisure categories that lost ground in 2020 was "socializing and communicating." Americans spent 18 percent less time socializing and communicating on an average day in 2020 than in 2019. A more detailed look at this category reveals why, with examples taken verbatim from the American Time Use Survey Activity Lexicon...

Activities included in the category "socializing and communicating"

Entertaining family

Visiting with family

Hanging out with family

Hugging or kissing family

Arguing with family

Entertaining friends

Hanging out with friends

Talking with friends

Hugging/kissing friends

Giving gifts to friends

Opening Christmas gifts with others

Opening birthday presents with others

Talking with neighbors

Greeting neighbors

Visiting adult in nursing home

While we spent less time engaging in the above activities in 2020, we spent 33 percent more time "relaxing and thinking," according to the BLS. These are some of the activities included in this category: doing nothing, wasting time, lying around, hanging out alone, daydreaming, worrying, crying, and grieving.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

Changes in Time Use during the Pandemic

How much did your life change in 2020? Probably a great deal. Maybe you worked from home instead of going to the office, your commute time dropped to zero, and you devoted much more time to supervising your children. Now we have the numbers in hand—time use data for 2020—and you can see whether the pandemic changed your life more or less than the life of the average American.

Of course, the 2020 data are not perfect. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had to suspend American Time Use Survey data collection during the early months of the pandemic—from mid-March to mid-May. Consequently, the BLS says it cannot produce annual estimates for 2020. But it has released estimates for the time period from May 10 through December 31. The report released today compares the 2020 averages for the May through December time period with the averages for the same time period in 2019. Here is how time use changed for the average person...

• Waking time spent at home increased from 7.62 hours per day in 2019 to 9.71 hours per day in 2020 as more worked from home and social activities were curtailed due to the pandemic. 
• Waking time spent alone increased from 6.06 hours per day in 2019 to 7.01 hours per day in 2020 because of the need for social distancing. The biggest increase in alone time occurred among 15-to-19-year-olds, rising from 4.28 hours a day in 2019 to 6.00 hours in 2020.
• Time spent watching television as a primary activity climbed from 2.74 hours per day in 2019 to 3.05 hours per day in 2020. The biggest increase in television time occurred among people aged 75 or older, rising from 4.52 hours per day in 2019 to 5.20 hours in 2020. 
• Time spent traveling (including commuting) fell from 1.22 hours per day in 2019 to 0.79 hours per day in 2020. 
• Among adults living in households with children under age 18, time spent caring for children as a primary activity (meaning the main activity) increased modestly from 1.18 hours per day in 2019 to 1.27 hours per day in 2020. 
• Among adults living in household with children under age 13, time spent caring for children as a secondary activity (while the adult was doing something else, such as working) grew from 5.07 hours per day in 2019 to 6.06 hours per day in 2020. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

It's Official: Life Expectancy Fell 1.5 Years in 2020

Life expectancy at birth in the United States fell by 1.5 years in 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Covid-19 deaths accounted for most but not all of the decline. From 78.8 years in 2019, life expectancy fell to 77.3 years in 2020. The decline was much greater for some groups than others... 

Change in life expectancy at birth, 2019 to 2020 (in years)

Total: -1.5

Females: -1.2

Males: -1.8

Blacks: -2.9

Hispanics: -3.0

Non-Hispanic whites: -1.2

Hispanic males: -3.7

Black males: -3.3

Black females: -2.4

Hispanic females: -2.0

Non-Hispanic white males: -1.3

Non-Hispanic white females: -1.1

"Mortality due to Covid-19 had, by far, the single greatest effect on the decline in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2020," reports the NCHS. Covid accounted for 74 percent of the negative change in life expectancy. More deaths due to unintentional injuries (mostly drug overdoses) contributed another 11 percent, and the rise in homicides contributed 3 percent. 

Fewer deaths from cancer, heart disease, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, and Alzheimer's prevented life expectancy from falling even further.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020 (PDF)

64% Are Confident in Science, Down from 70% in 1975

America's confidence in science has slipped over the past half century, according to a Gallup survey. While the 64 percent majority in 2021 reported having "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, this figure is below the 70 percent who expressed such confidence in 1975—the last time Gallup asked the question. It took Gallup nearly 50 years to pose the question a second time—perhaps because Gallup's researchers assumed having such confidence as we progressed into the 21st century was a no brainer. Looks like that assumption was incorrect. 

Where is the erosion occurring? Among Republicans. Here is the percentage of adults in 1975 and 2021 with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science by political party affiliation...

Percent with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, 1975

Democrats: 67%

Republicans: 72%

Percentage point gap: Republicans +5

Percent with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, 2021

Democrats: 79%

Republicans: 45%

Percentage point gap: Democrats +34

In 1975, Republicans were 5 percentage points more likely than Democrats to have "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science. In 2021, Republicans were 34 percentage points less likely than Democrats to have confidence in science. 

Gallup notes: "The current 34-point gap in confidence in science is among the largest Gallup measured for any of the institutions in this year's poll, exceeded only by a 49-point party divide in ratings of the presidency and 45 points in ratings of the police." 

Gallup, Democratic, Republican Confidence in Science Diverges

Newsroom Employment Has Fallen 26 Percent

Newsroom employment has plummeted since 2008, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of people employed in newsrooms fell from 114,000 in 2008 to just 85,000 in 2020—a 26 percent decline. Pew defines newsroom employment as reporters, editors, photographers, and videographers who work for newspapers, radio, broadcast television, cable, and "other information services" (digital-native news publishers). 

Newspapers dominated newsroom employment in 2008. But employment at newspapers fell by a whopping 57 percent between 2008 and 2020. Consequently, the newspaper industry is just a shadow of its former self. At the other extreme, the number of newsroom employees who work in the digital-native industry has more than doubled and now accounts for 21 percent of the total.

Newsroom employment by industry, 2008 and 2020

	2020		2008		% change
Total	84,640	100.0%	114,260	100.0%	-26%
Newspapers	30,820	36.4	71,070	62.2	-57
Broadcast TV	29,700	35.1	28,390	24.8	5
Digital-native	18,030	21.3	7,400	6.5	144
Radio	3,360	4.0	4,570	4.0	-26
Cable TV	2,730	3.2	2,830	2.5	-4

Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Newsroom Employment Has Fallen 26% since 2008

Fewer Are Claiming Social Security Benefits at 62

Boomers are waiting longer to retire than their parents did. Only about one in four Boomers born in 1957 claimed Social Security retired worker benefits at the earliest possible age of 62, according to an analysis of Social Security Administration data by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. In contrast, early claiming was the norm for men and women born in 1940 or earlier. 

Early claiming has fallen with each succeeding cohort of Boomers (birth years 1946 through 1964), with the exception of an uptick in 2009 as a consequence of the Great Recession. Boomers born in 1957 turned 62 in 2019, the latest year for which SSA data are available... 

Percent who claimed Social Security benefits at age 62, by birth year and year turned 62

Birth year	Year 62	Men	Women
1957	2019	24.4%	26.6%
1956	2018	26.8	29.3
1955	2017	28.0	30.7
1954	2016	29.4	32.4
1953	2015	31.4	34.9
1952	2014	33.4	36.9
1951	2013	35.5	39.4
1950	2012	37.8	41.5
1949	2011	40.8	44.3
1948	2010	43.6	46.8
1947	2009	45.2	48.7
1946	2008	39.7	44.7
1940	2002	50.2	54.6
1930	1992	56.6	61.4

The fact that so few Boomers are claiming benefits early is a good thing. "Claiming later will lead to a higher monthly benefit check and generally improve retirement income security," say CRR's Anqi Chen and Alicia H. Munnell. While the Covid recession may have boosted early claiming in 2020, the researchers do not think it will permanently reverse the trend towards later claiming.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Pre-Covid Trends in Social Security Claiming

Big Decline in Sexual Activity among Teens

What's up with teenagers? Way back in 1991, the 54 percent majority of teens (defined as students in grades 9 through 12) reported ever having had sexual intercourse, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. By 2019, the figure had dropped to just 38 percent. 

Percent of high school students who have ever had sexual intercourse, 1991 and 2019

	2019	1991	pp change
Total, 9-12	38.4%	54.1%	-15.7
9th grade	19.2	39.0	-19.8
10th grade	33.6	48.2	-14.6
11th grade	46.5	62.4	-15.9
12th grade	56.7	66.7	-10.0

The decline in sexual activity has occurred in every grade. It is more pronounced among males (an 18.2 percentage point drop to 39.2 percent) than among females (a 13.2 percentage point drop to 37.6 percent). Teenagers in every race and Hispanic origin group are far less sexually active now than in the past. 

Source: Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America's Children in Brief: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2020

Record High Participation in Outdoor Recreation in 2020

More people participated in outdoor recreation in 2020 than ever before, most likely because of the coronavirus pandemic. The 53 percent majority of Americans aged 6 or older engaged in an outdoor recreational activity in 2020—a record high, according to the Outdoor Foundation. "Outdoor spaces became places of refuge to safely socialize, improve physical and mental health, connect with family and recover from screen fatigue," the Foundation states in its annual report.

Percent of people aged 6-plus participating in the five most popular outdoor activities in 2020 (and percent participating in 2019)

1. Running: 21.0% (20.2%)

2. Hiking: 19.0% (16.4%)

3. Fishing: 18.0% (16.6%)

4. Bicycling: 17.3% (16.1%)

5. Camping: 15.8% (13.8%)

As more couch potatoes were forced to venture outside, the overall enthusiasm of participants took a noticeable hit, the Foundation reports. "About one-quarter of new participants say they do not want to continue their new activity, a number that may grow sharply as consumers return to pre-pandemic habits."

Source: Outdoor Foundation, 2021 Outdoor Participation Trends Report

Religious Identity in 2020

Nearly one in four American adults reports being religiously unaffiliated, according to PRRI's 2020 Census of American Religion. The 23 percent who say they are religiously unaffiliated is below the peak of 26 percent recorded in 2018. Nevertheless, the religiously unaffiliated group is larger than any single religious affiliation. 

Percent of Americans aged 18 or older who identify with religious group, 2020

23% religiously unaffiliated

16% white mainline Protestant

14% white evangelical Protestant

12% white Catholic

  8% Hispanic Catholic

  7% Black Protestant

  4% Hispanic Protestant

  2% other Catholic of color

  1% Jewish

  1% Latter-day Saint (Mormon) 

  1% Muslim

  1% Buddhist

  0.5% Hindu

  0.2% Unitarian

The PRRI survey notes a "precipitous drop" in white evangelical Protestant affiliation over the years—from 23 percent of adults in 2006 to just 14 percent in 2020. White mainline Protestants now outnumber white evangelical Protestants.

Source: PRRI, The 2020 Census of American Religion

50% of Adults Live in an All-Vaccinated Household

How many of us live in a household in which every member has had at least one dose of a Covid vaccine? Half of us, according to a KFF survey fielded June 8-21. Another one in five adults is in a "mixed" household, meaning some members are vaccinated and some are not...

Vaccination status of households

50% of adults are vaccinated and live in an all-vaccinated household

14% of adults are vaccinated, but live in a mixed household

7% of adults are unvaccinated, but live in a mixed household

25% of adults are not vaccinated and live in a household in which no one is vaccinated

How many of the vaccinated adults who live in a mixed household are living with children under age 12, who are ineligible for the vaccine? The answer is—surprisingly few. Among the 14 percent of adults who are vaccinated but live in a mixed household, only 34 percent say that all unvaccinated household members are children under age 12. The 65 percent majority say that some of the unvaccinated household members are aged 12 or older. 

The KFF survey also reveals a partisan divide in the vaccination status of households, with Democrats much more likely than Republicans to live in an all-vaccinated household...

Vaccination status of households by political party affiliation

	Democrats	Republicans
All-vaccinated household	67%	39%
Vaccinated, mixed household	18	12
Unvaccinated, mixed household	5	8
All-unvaccinated household	10	37

Source: KFF, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: June 2021

46% Have a Will

Fewer than half (46 percent) of adults in the United States have a will, according to a recent Gallup survey. Here's the question asked by Gallup: "Do you have a will that describes how you would like your money and estate to be handled after your death?"

Not surprisingly, the percentage of Americans who have a will is highest among those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (61 percent). It is also well above average among college graduates (57 percent). It is much higher among older than younger adults...

Percent who have a will

Aged 18 to 29: 20%

Aged 30 to 49: 36%

Aged 50 to 64: 53%

Aged 65-plus: 76%

Source: Gallup, How Many Americans Have a Will?

Born in 1970? Have We Got News for You

Who is the longest-lived human being on record? Her name was Jeanne Calment. She was born in Arles, France in 1875. She died 122 years and 164 days later in 1997. She currently holds the record for what is called the "maximum reported age at death."

How long will her record stand? That's what a study published in Demographic Research wanted to determine. Researchers Michael Pearce and Adrian E. Raftery of the University of Washington calculated the probabilities that the record would be broken by 2100. The chances are very good that Jeanne Calment's record will be broken by then. In fact, there's a 99 percent probability that someone will have lived more than 122 years 164 days by 2100, the researchers report. 

Pearce and Raftery also calculated the probability that the record would rise to 126, 128, and 130 years by 2100. There is an excellent (89 percent) chance that someone will live to be at least age 126 by 2100, they calculate. The probability is pretty good (44 percent) that someone will live to be at least age 128 by 2100. 

The probability is a smaller but still significant 13 percent that someone will live to be at least 130 by 2100. If you were born in 1970, we're looking at you. You might be the one who is still around in 2100 to celebrate your 130th birthday.

Source: Demographic Research, Probabilistic Forecasting of Maximum Human Lifespan by 2100 Using Bayesian Population Projections 

No Increase in Vaccination Rate in June

Seventy-nine percent of adults aged 18 or older say they have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey fielded June 9-21. The percentage of adults who said they had received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine was unchanged from the previous iteration of the survey fielded May 26-June 7. 

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of June 9-21

Total 18-plus: 79%

Aged 18 to 24: 72%

Aged 25 to 39: 70%

Aged 40 to 54: 77%

Aged 55 to 64: 85%

Aged 65-plus: 91%

The stability in the numbers over the month of June suggests that the United States may be at the end of the road regarding vaccination unless it becomes mandatory at schools, workplaces, and other venues. 

Of the 52 million adults who have yet to receive a Covid vaccine, only 10 million say they probably/definitely will get vaccinated. The number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine was unchanged from the previous survey at 27 million. Another 14 million say they are unsure about getting the vaccine, the same as before.  

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, June 9-21

Life Expectancy in U.S. Falling Further and Further Behind Peer Countries

Life expectancy in the U.S. declined by 1.87 years between 2018 and 2020, according to an Urban Institute study. This decline was 8.5 times greater than the 0.22 average decline of 16 peer (high-income) countries. Not only did the U.S. suffer a disproportionate number of Covid-19 deaths overall, but the higher death rates among Blacks and Hispanics also contributed to our growing disadvantage in life expectancy.

For more than a decade, life expectancy at birth in the United States has been falling further behind life expectancy in peer countries. The difference in life expectancy between the U.S. and the 16 peer countries average was 1.88 years in 2010. The difference had grown to 3.05 years by 2018. In 2020, U.S. life expectancy was an even greater 4.69 years behind life expectancy in the peer countries. 

"A longstanding and widening U.S. health disadvantage, high death rates in 2020, and continued inequitable effects on racial and ethnic minority groups are likely the products of longstanding policy choices and systemic racism," the study concludes. 

Source: Urban Institute, Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020 on Life Expectancy across Populations in the USA and other High Income Countries: Simulations of Provisional Mortality Data

Nearly Half Think They Will Get Dementia

Americans overestimate their chances of developing dementia, according to an AARP survey. Nearly half (48 percent) of adults aged 40 or older say it is somewhat/very/extremely likely that they will get dementia as they get older. In fact, only 14 percent of people aged 71 or older have dementia. 

The widespread sense of impending doom may be due to the fact that most know someone now or in the past who has/had dementia. The 51 percent majority of adults aged 40 or older say they currently have or had in the past a close friend or relative with dementia. Not surprisingly, the percentage who have/had a close friend or relative with dementia rises with age...

Percent of adults aged 40-plus who have/had a close friend or relative with dementia

Aged 40 to 49: 42%

Aged 50 to 59: 50%

Aged 60 to 69: 55%

Aged 70-plus: 58%

Source: AARP, 2021 AARP Survey on the Perceptions Related to a Dementia Diagnosis: Adults Aged 40-Plus

Births Declined in All 50 States

The results are in. The coronavirus pandemic led to a substantial decline in births in the United States. There were fewer births in the United States in every month of 2020 than in the same month of 2019, the National Center for Health Statistics reports. The decline during the second half of the year (6 percent) was greater than the decline in the first half of the year (2 percent). The biggest decline occurred in December, with 8 percent fewer births in 2020 than in December 2019. 

"The impact of the pandemic on the United States in 2020 varied by month," the NCHS reports. "The impact also varied widely by state as the infection spread across the United States." 

In the first half of 2020, the number of births fell in 20 states due to the long-term trend of declining fertility. In comparison, 27 states had declining births in the first half of 2019. 

In the second half of 2020, the effects of the pandemic began to emerge. The number of births declined in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In comparison, births declined in only 9 states in the second half of 2019. Here are the states with the largest declines...

States with the largest decline in births, second half of 2020 versus 2019

-11% in New Mexico

  -9% in New York

  -8% in California

  -8% in Hawaii

  -8% in West Virginia

The remaining states and D.C. had declines of 3 to 7 percent. 

"Evaluation of trends in births by month will continue to determine whether these declines continued into 2021 or were unique to 2020 during the time of the initial Covid-19 pandemic," the NCHS concludes.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Declines in Births by Month: United States, 2020

All of the Above

Among U.S. adults...

85% own a smartphone

77% own a desktop/laptop computer

77% have a broadband connection at home

53% own a tablet computer 

But how many Americans aged 18 or older have all of the above? It depends on their household income, according to a Pew Research Center survey...

Percent of U.S. adults who have "all of the above"

23% of those with household incomes below $30,000

42% of those with household incomes of $30,000 to $99,999

63% of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more

Source: Pew Research Center, Digital Divide Persists even as Americans with Lower Incomes Make Gains in Tech Adoption

What Is the Probability You Will Need Long-Term Care?

Older Americans face a great unknown: will they or won't they need potentially costly long-term care as they age. Researchers at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRR) wanted to shed some light on this great unknown, assigning probabilities to the need for long-term care. The goal, say the researchers, "is to help retirees, their families, and policymakers better understand the likelihood that 65-year-olds—over the course of their retirement—will experience disability that seems manageable, catastrophic, or somewhere in-between."

Not all long-term care needs are the same. Some older people will need long-term care only for a short period of time or for specific tasks that can be readily done by willing family members, making the financial burden manageable. Other older people will need long-term care not only for years but also for vital tasks such as bathing, eating, and toileting, which usually require professional help. This more intense long-term care can become an unmanageable financial burden if a lengthy stay in a long-term care facility is required. 

The CRR researchers wanted to determine the probabilities of each type of long-term care. They sorted potential long-term care needs into three categories based on two factors—the length of time care is needed and the type of care required. They labeled the three categories minimal (help needed for mundane tasks only, such as shopping or housekeeping), moderate (help needed with only one vital task such as bathing or toileting), and severe (help needed with two or more vital tasks or dementia). Then the researchers examined decades of data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to determine the probabilities for each level of care from age 65 until death. Here are the results...

• 17% of 65-year-olds will not require any long-term care.
• 22% will require minimal long-term care, meaning they will need help only with mundane tasks such as housework, shopping, or preparing meals for any amount of time or they will need help with only one vital task for no more than one year.
• 38% will require moderate long-term care, meaning they will need help with one vital task for one to three years or they will need help with two or more vital tasks or dementia for up to three years.
• 24% will require severe long-term care, meaning help with one or more vital tasks/dementia for three or more years. This is "the type of severe needs that most people dread," the CRR researchers note.

Which long-term care path will an individual 65-year-old take? That's the $64,000 question. Some answers lie in the demographics, however. For example, from age 65 to death, college graduates are less likely than those with less education to have severe long-term care needs. Only 20 percent of the 65-year-old college graduates in the HRS database had severe needs during the remainder of their lives. This compares with a larger 28 percent of those with less education. Future CRR briefs will "identify people who are particularly at risk of experiencing needs they do not have the resources to meet."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, What Level of Long-Term Services and Supports Do Retirees Need?

Republicans Oppose Vaccine Requirement for Students

Would you favor or oppose requiring students to receive a Covid-19 vaccine before they can attend classes in the fall? The majority of Americans would favor a vaccine requirement for college students (61 percent), high school students (56 percent), and even middle school students (51 percent), according to a Gallup survey. The great majority of Democrats favor the requirement, but few Republicans agree...

Percent in favor of a vaccine requirement for students

	Total	Democrats	Republicans
Middle school	61%	88%	31%
High school	56	84	26
College	51	77	22

"Given the highly politicized nature of public perceptions about the Covid-19 threat," concludes Gallup, "school vaccination policies are likely to spark vocal opposition and legal challenges from some parents, whatever schools decide."

Source: Gallup, Public Backs Requiring Covid-19 Vaccine to Attend School

75% of Younger Adults Are in Debt

The 77 percent majority of American households are in debt, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances. The accumulation of debt starts early. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, 68 percent report that their household has debt, according to a University of Chicago GenForward Survey fielded in 2020. The figure is 76 percent among those aged 25 to 30 and 82 percent among 31-to-36-year-olds.  

Percent of people aged 18 to 36 with household debt

75% have any household debt

35% have student loans

32% have auto loans

28% have a mortgage

23% carry a credit card balance 

15% have past-due medical debt

Student loans are the most common type of debt among younger adults, and the percentage of 18-to-36-year-olds with student loans does not vary much by age. Student loan debt is most common among younger adults with some college (42 percent) or a bachelor's degree (46 percent), but it is also significant among those without a high school diploma (23 percent) and those with only a high school diploma (19 percent). 

Nearly half (48 percent) of young adults say their household debt is manageable. But a substantial 16 percent say their debt is a bit more than is manageable, and another 8 percent say their debt is far more than is manageable. The debt burden shouldered by younger adults helps to explain why they have been slow to embrace significant life events...

Percent of 18-to-36-year-olds who say debt has delayed life event

Buying a home: 29%

Buying a car: 26%

Saving for retirement: 25%

Continuing their education: 22%

Having children: 14%

Marrying: 12%

Source: University of Chicago, GenForward Survey, Race, Ethnicity, and the Financial Lives of Young Adults

79% Have Received at Least One Dose of a Covid Vaccine

Seventy-nine percent of adults aged 18 or older say they have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. The latest survey was fielded May 26-June 7. The 79 percent who reported having gotten at least one dose of the vaccine as of June 7 is up slightly from the 77 percent who reported having done so at the end of May. 

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of May 26-June 7

Total 18-plus: 79%

Aged 18 to 24: 68%

Aged 25 to 39: 71%

Aged 40 to 54: 76%

Aged 55 to 64: 85%

Aged 65-plus: 92%

The number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine fell to 27 million during this round of the survey, more than 1 million fewer than in the previous round. Another 14 million say they are unsure about getting the vaccine. 

The 17 million adults (7 percent of the population) who say they "definitely will not" get the vaccine is unchanged from the previous survey. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, May 26-June 7

75% of White Evangelicals Favor the Death Penalty

Support for the death penalty varies by religious affiliation, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Overall, 60 percent of Americans aged 18 or older support the death penalty for people convicted of murder. Only 35 percent of those who identify themselves as atheists support the death penalty—the lowest level of support by religious affiliation. The highest level of support is among white evangelical Protestants, 75 percent of whom support the death penalty.

Percent who favor the death penalty for people convicted of murder

75% of white Evangelical Protestants

73% of white Protestants, not evangelical

61% of Hispanic Catholics

56% of white Catholics

50% of Black Protestants

43% of Agnostics

35% of Atheists

Source: Pew Research Center, Unlike Other U.S. Religious Groups, Most Atheists and Agnostics Oppose the Death Penalty

Americans Are So-So about Electric Vehicles

If there's one thing you can count on, it's that the majority of Americans prefer the familiar. That explains why electric vehicles have been slow to take off in the United States. Only 2 percent of the automobiles sold in 2020 were electric, according to an analysis by Pew Research Center. In fact, there were fewer electric vehicles (including hybrids) sold in 2020 than in 2018. The paltry 2.0 percent market share accounted for by electric vehicles in the United States is below the world average of 4.6 percent. It is also well below the share in Spain, China, the UK, and all Scandinavian countries. In Norway, fully 75 percent of the cars sold in 2020 were electric. 

What accounts for the slow uptake of electric vehicles in the U.S.? One factor is the phaseout of federal tax credits on some models, Pew notes. Another factor is fear of the unfamiliar. Many people are hesitant to adopt a new technology. Only 39 percent of adults in the U.S. say they are somewhat/very likely to consider buying an electric vehicle the next time they are in the market. Younger adults are somewhat more likely than Boomers and older adults to consider electric, but not much more...

Percent somewhat/very likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle 

39% of total adults aged 18-plus

42% of Generation Z

47% of Millennials

39% of Generation X

32% of Boomers & older

Source: Pew Research Center, Today's Electric Vehicle Market: Slow Growth in U.S., Faster in China, Europe and Electric Vehicles Get Mixed Reception from American Consumers

60% of Americans Favor the Death Penalty

The 60 percent majority of Americans support the death penalty for people convicted of murder, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Pew documents large partisan differences in support for the death penalty, with 77 percent of Republicans versus 46 percent of Democrats in favor. 

The partisan gap in attitudes towards the death penalty explains why executions are much more likely to occur in red states than blue states. Of the 22 prisoners executed by the states in 2019, Texas executed 9 (41 percent), according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee each executed three prisoners, Florida executed two, and Missouri and South Dakota each executed one. 

Overall, 2,570 prisoners were under sentence of death in the United States at the end of 2019. Nearly all (98 percent) are men. The 56 percent majority are white, 41 percent Black, and 15 percent Hispanic (who may be of any race). Their median age is 51 and median level of education is 12th grade. Most have never been married. They have been on death row for an average of 18.7 years. 

In a preview of 2020 capital punishment statistics included in the 2019 report, the BJS notes a decline in executions to 17. "Sixteen of the executions in 2020 were by lethal injection," says BJS, "while 1 (in Tennessee) was by electrocution. Ten of those executed were white, 5 were black, 1 was Hispanic, and 1 was American Indian. No females were executed during this period."

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Capital Punishment, 2019—Statistical Tables

Foreign-Born Work Force Declined in 2020

The total number of workers in the U.S. labor force fell by 2.8 million in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreign-born workers accounted for a disproportionate 38 percent of the decline—a loss of 1.1 million foreign-born workers. Consequently, the foreign-born share of the U.S. labor force fell from 17.4 percent in 2019 to 17.0 percent in 2020. 

Not surprisingly, Asian and Hispanic workers are mostly likely to be foreign-born. Among Asians in the labor force, 68.5 percent are foreign-born. Among Hispanics, the figure is 45 percent. 

By age, the foreign-born share of the labor force peaks at 21 to 22 percent among 35-to-54-year-olds. It is smallest among the youngest workers. Only 8 percent of workers aged 16 to 24 are foreign-born. 

The foreign-born share of the labor force also varies by educational attainment, with the foreign-born accounting for the majority of workers without a high school diploma...

Foreign-born share of the U.S. labor force by educational attainment, 2020

54.7% of those without a high school diploma

18.1% of those with a high school diploma and no further education

11.4% of those with some college or an associate's degree

17.2% of those with a bachelor's degree or more education

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 17.0 Percent of U.S. Labor Force in 2020 Was Foreign Born, Down from 17.4 Percent in 2019

822,000 New Single-Family Houses Sold in 2020

822,000: that's the number of new single-family houses sold in 2020—the most since 2006 and more than twice the number sold a decade ago in 2010, in the aftermath of the Great Recession.  

The median sales price of new single-family houses sold climbed to $336,900 in 2020. While this was higher than the median price in 2019, it was less than the 2017 record high of $341,200, after adjusting for inflation...

Median sales price of new single-family houses sold, 2005 to 2020 (in 2020 dollars)

2020: $336,900

2019: $325,500

2018: $336,400

2017: $341,200 (record high)

2016: $331,900

2015: $321,300

2011: $261,400 (post Great Recession low)

2010: $263,300

2005: $319,200 (pre Great Recession high)

Nearly all (96 percent) of new single-family homes sold in 2020 were air conditioned. This figure is up from 63 percent in 1978, the first year of the Census Bureau's data series. 

New single-family houses sold in 2020 had a median of 2,333 square feet, almost identical to the 2,322 median size in 2019. In 2015 and 2016, the median size of new single-family houses sold exceeded 2,500 square feet. 

Source: Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing

The Unvaccinated Are Least Likely to Wear Face Masks

Americans who have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus are almost guaranteed to be safe from the potentially fatal illness. Yet, they are also the ones most likely to continue to wear face masks, according to a Gallup survey. Take a look...

Use of face mask in past 7 days by vaccination status, May 2021

90% of those who are fully vaccinated

88% of those who plan to get vaccinated

80% of those who are partially vaccinated

49% of those who do not plan to get vaccinated

This is not the only eyebrow-raising statistic from the Gallup survey. Between April 2021 and May 2021, the share of the unvaccinated who have used a face mask in the past seven days fell by a full 10 percentage points—from 59 to 49 percent. Among the fully vaccinated, the decline in face mask use was a smaller 5 percentage points. 

The anti-vaxers who have thrown away their masks might want to consider a Washington Post analysis of Covid infection rates among the unvaccinated. Case rates are as high as they were near the January peak of Covid infections, the Post reports. "The virus continues to rage among those who haven't received a shot."

Source: Gallup, Americans Getting Out More, but Cautiously

YouTube is Most Popular Social Media Platform

The great majority of the American public (72 percent of people aged 18 or older) use social media platforms, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The most popular site is YouTube, followed by Facebook—the only two sites used by the majority of adults...

Percent of people aged 18 or older who say they ever use...

YouTube: 81%

Facebook: 69%

Instagram: 40%

Pinterest: 31%

LinkedIn: 28%

Snapchat: 25%

Twitter: 23%

WhatsApp: 23%

TikTok: 21%

Reddit: 18%

Nextdoor: 13%

Young adults aged 18 to 29 are the ones most likely to use most of the social media platforms, including YouTube (95 percent), Instagram (71 percent), Snapchat (65 percent), TikTok (48 percent), Twitter (42 percent), and Reddit (36 percent). 

People aged 30 to 49 are the ones most likely to use Facebook (77 percent), LinkedIn (36 percent), and WhatsApp (30 percent).

People aged 50 to 64 are the ones most likely to use Pinterest (38 percent).

People aged 30 to 64 are the ones most likely to use Nextdoor (16 to 17 percent).

Source: Pew Research Center, Social Media Use in 2021

77% Have Received at least One Dose of Vaccine

Seventy-seven percent of adults say they have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. The latest survey was fielded May 12-24. The 77 percent who reported having gotten at least one dose of the vaccine as of May 24 is up slightly from the 75 percent who reported having done so in early May. 

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of May 12-24

Total 18-plus: 77%

Aged 18 to 24: 66%

Aged 25 to 39: 67%

Aged 40 to 54: 76%

Aged 55 to 64: 84%

Aged 65-plus: 90%

There is no change in the number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine. During this round of the survey, 28 million said no. Another 14 million say they are unsure about getting the vaccine.  

There are 17 million adults (7 percent of the population) who say they "definitely will not" get the vaccine, almost the same numbers as in the previous survey. By race and Hispanic origin, 8 percent of non-Hispanic whites say they definitely will not get the vaccine, 7 percent of Blacks, 5 percent of Hispanics, and 2 percent of Asians. 

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, May 12-24

The Decline in Men's Earnings, 1988—2018

The earnings of men are not what they used to be. According to data collected by the Social Security Administration, here is how the earnings of men aged 20 to 59 have changed in the past 30 years, from 1988 to 2018 (in 2018 dollars)...

Median annual earnings of men in 2018 (and percent change since 1988; in 2018 dollars)

Aged 20 to 29: $25,507 (-5.4%)

Aged 30 to 39: $47,895 (-6.4%)

Aged 40 to 49: $57,779 (-10.5%)

Aged 50 to 59: $57,518 (-7.3%)

Note: Earnings are all wages, salaries, and self-employment income in Social Security covered and non-covered employment including earnings that exceed the annual taxable maximum. 

Source: Social Security Administration, Earnings of Men Aged 20-59, 1988—2018

QAnon Tenets Believed by 15-20% of Americans

An alarmingly large share of the public believes in each of the three tenets of the QAnon conspiracy theory, according to a PRRI survey...

1. Fifteen percent of Americans believe "the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation." Among Republicans, 23 percent believe this to be true.
2. Fifteen percent of Americans agree with the statement, "because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country." Among Republicans, the figure is 28 percent.
3. Twenty percent of Americans believe "there is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders." Among Republicans, 28 percent are believers.

Perhaps most worrisome is the belief that violence may be necessary. Fully 42 of those who watch far-right news sources believe true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country. Among Fox News viewers, the figure is 27 percent. Among white evangelical protestants, 24 percent. 

Source: PRRI, Understanding QAnon's Connection to American Politics, Religion, and Media Consumption

How Many Know Someone Who Is Transgender?

Nearly one-third of Americans aged 18 or older personally know someone who is transgender, according to a Gallup survey. Here's the question asked by Gallup: "Do you have any friends or relatives or coworkers who have told you, personally, that they are transgender?" Young adults are most likely to say yes.

Percent who personally know someone who is transgender

Total 18-plus: 31%

Aged 18 to 29: 50%

Aged 30 to 49: 31%

Aged 50 to 64: 24%

Aged 65-plus: 19%

Source: Gallup, Mixed Views among Americans on Transgender Issues

35 Million Report Having Been Diagnosed with Covid-19

Millions of Americans report that they have received a positive Covid-19 diagnosis, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey fielded April 28-May 10. Overall, 35 million say they have been diagnosed with Covid—14 percent of the population aged 18 or older. 

Those most likely to have had a Covid diagnosis are Hispanics (22 percent), those without a high school diploma (19 percent), and those living in households with seven or more people (22 percent). Many of these victims are front-line workers exposed to the virus while on the job.

Those least likely to have had a Covid diagnosis are people aged 65 or older (9 percent), college graduates (11 percent), people who live alone (10 percent), and people with household incomes of $200,000 or more (10 percent). Many of these people were able to stay home or work from home during the pandemic, reducing their exposure to the virus.

Percent of adults who have received a positive Covid-19 diagnosis, as of April 28-May 10

Total 18-plus: 13.8%

Aged 18 to 24: 18.1%

Aged 25 to 39: 14.5%

Aged 40 to 54: 16.5%

Aged 55 to 64: 13.4%

Aged 65-plus: 8.8%

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, April 28-May 10

Blacks and Whites See Things Differently

How serious a problem is racism in the United States? It depends on who you ask. 

Overall, only 30 percent of adults say racism is an "extremely serious" problem, according to an AP-NORC survey fielded April 29-May 3. The 60 percent majority of Blacks say racism is an extremely serious problem. Only 23 percent of whites feel the same way.

For many whites, racism is no big deal. Take a look...

How serious a problem do you think racism is in the United States?

	Blacks	Whites
Extremely	60%	23%
Very	24	28
Moderately	13	29
Not too/not at all	4	20

Another question on the AP-NORC survey asks, "How serious a problem do you think police violence against the public is in the United States?" While 76 percent of Blacks think police violence against the public is a very/extremely serious problem, only 36 percent of whites agree. Whites are more likely to think violence against the police is the bigger problem, with 47 percent feeling that way. 

Source: AP-NORC, George Floyd's Death: One Year Later

75% Have Received at least One Dose of Vaccine

The increase in the percentage of Americans who have been vaccinated against the coronavirus is slowing down. Seventy-five percent of adults say they have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. The latest survey was fielded April 28-May 10. The 75 percent who reported having gotten at least one dose of the vaccine as of May 10 is up slightly from the 70 percent who reported having done so as of the end of April. 

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of April 28-May 10

Total 18-plus: 75%

Aged 18 to 24: 61%

Aged 25 to 39: 64%

Aged 40 to 54: 72%

Aged 55 to 64: 83%

Aged 65-plus: 90%

There is not much change in the number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine. During this round of the survey, 28 million said no—down a bit from 29 million at the end of April. Another 16 million say they are unsure about getting the vaccine.  

There are still 18 million adults (7 percent of the population) who say they "definitely will not" get the vaccine, the same as in the previous survey. Among those who say they definitely will not get the vaccine, the three biggest reasons (multiple reasons could be cited) are: 1) don't trust the vaccine (55 percent); 2) concerned about side effects (48 percent); and 3) don't trust the government (46 percent).

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, April 28-May 10

Remarkable Stability in "Doing Okay"

Three out of four adults say they are doing at least okay financially, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, fielded in the fourth quarter of 2020. The 75 percent figure is identical to what was reported at the same time one year earlier—before the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Fed's 2020 survey asked Americans about their financial wellbeing not only at the end of 2020, but also at two other times during the year as it tracked the impact of the pandemic on household finances. In April 2020, the percentage who said they were doing at least okay financially dipped to 72 percent. By July, it had climbed to 77 percent. This increase, explains the Fed, "is consistent with some interpretations that many aspects of government stimulus measures...appear to have blunted the negative financial effects of the pandemic for many families."

Here are the percentages of adults who said they were doing at least okay financially as of the fourth quarter of 2020 by selected demographic characteristics, and percentage point change since 2019...

Family income

$100,000 or more: 95% (0)

$50,000 to $99,999: 84% (0)

$25,000 to $49,999: 65% (-2)

Less than $25,000: 52% (0)

Race/ethnicity

Black: 64% (-2)

Hispanic: 64% (-2)

Non-Hispanic white: 80% (+1)

Parental status

No children: 78% (+1)

Children: 67% (-4)

Metro status

Metro area: 76% (0)

Nonmetro area: 69% (-3)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2020

Just 51% of Births Are to Non-Hispanic Whites

Non-Hispanic whites still account for the majority of births in the United States, but just barely. Fifty-one percent of the women who gave birth in 2020 were non-Hispanic white. Given that some of these non-Hispanic white mothers are intermarried—meaning their partner is of another race or Hispanic origin—the minority share of the nation's newborns is likely above 50 percent. 

The non-Hispanic white share of births has fallen by 8 percentage points over the past two decades. The Black share has fallen slightly, while the Asian and Hispanic shares have grown...

Percent distribution of births by race/Hispanic origin of mother, 2000, 2010, and 2020

	2020	2010	2000
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Asian	6.1	6.2	4.9
Black	14.7	14.7	14.9
Hispanic	24.0	23.6	20.1
Non-Hispanic white	51.0	54.1	58.2

Note: Percentages will not sum to 100 because not all races are shown. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the National Center for Health Statistics' Birth Data

10% Are Intermarried

Ten percent of marriages are between spouses of two different races or between an Hispanic and a non-Hispanic, according to a Census Bureau analysis of 2016 American Community Survey data. The analysis examined intermarriage patterns among currently married women who have married only once. 

Percent intermarried* by race and Hispanic origin

52.1% of American Indians/Alaska Natives

22.4% of Hispanics

20.6% of Asians

  8.0% of Blacks

  5.1% of non-Hispanic whites

Percent intermarried* by age

16.7% of those aged 15 to 24

15.2% of those aged 25 to 34

13.3% of those aged 35 to 44

10.3% of those aged 45 to 54

  5.9% of those aged 55 or older

Percent intermarried* by education

  7.2% of high school dropouts

  8.1% of high school graduates

11.5% of those with some college

11.3% of those with a bachelor's degree

11.7% of those with a graduate/professional degree

*Among currently married women who have married only once.

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2016

Below Replacement Fertility for College Graduates

The average woman will have 1.7 children in her lifetime according to a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of 2019 fertility rates by educational attainment. This rate is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. 

Note: The total fertility rate (TFR), as this measure is called, fell even lower in 2020—to 1.6 children per woman. 

The TFR varies by a woman's educational attainment. Among women without a high school diploma, the fertility rate is well above replacement at 2.8 children. Women with a bachelor's degree and no further education have the lowest TFR—just 1.3 children. 

Average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime given the age-specific fertility rates of 2019, by educational attainment

Total women: 1.705

No high school diploma: 2.791

High school graduate only: 2.053

Some college, no degree: 1.808

Associate's degree: 1.312

Bachelor's degree: 1.284

Master's degree: 1.405

Doctorate/professional: 1.523

Source: Census Bureau, Total Fertility Rates, by Maternal Educational Attainment and Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, 2019 (PDF)

Who Favors Proof of Vaccination?

The majority of American adults are in favor of businesses requiring proof of vaccination before people can participate in certain activities over the next few months, according to a Gallup survey. Overall, 57 percent favor requiring proof of vaccination for air travel and 55 percent for attending events with large crowds. 

There is a deep partisan split on whether businesses should require proof of vaccination, however. The majority of Democrats favor proof of vaccination for all of the selected activities, while only about a quarter or fewer Republicans feel the same way.

Percent who favor businesses requiring proof of vaccination before participation in activity

	total	Democrats	Republicans
Air travel	57%	85%	28%
Events with large crowds	55	82	25
Where you work*	45	69	16
Hotel stay	44	66	22
Dine in restaurant	40	62	19

*This question was asked only of those who are employed. 

Source: Gallup, U.S. Support for Vaccination Proof Varies by Activity

Big Spending Declines in 2020

Of course household spending declined in 2020. We know that. We all cut back. But the latest mid-year household spending statistics released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal just how deep those cuts were.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces not only calendar-year household spending data, but also mid-year data. The latest release shows average household spending for the July 2019 through June 2020 time period. A comparison of these mid-year data with those from one year earlier captures the dramatic decline in household spending as the coronavirus pandemic swept the country. 

Percent change in average household spending on selected products and services, July 2018-June 2019 to July 2019-June 2020 (in 2020 dollars)

  -3.4%: total spending by the average household

 +1.9%: food at home

 +3.8%: maintenance/repairs for owned homes

-14.8%: food away from home

-18.6%: women's clothes 

-20.1%: men's clothes

-27.8%: public transportation

-31.7%: fees and admissions to entertainment events

Overall household spending fell 3 percent by mid-year 2020 compared to the previous mid-year number, after adjusting for inflation. The decline was much greater for the sectors most impacted by the pandemic. Average household spending on fees and admissions to entertainment events plunged 32 percent. Spending on public transportation fell 28 percent. Spending on food away from home (mostly restaurant meals) was down 15 percent. Meanwhile, spending on food at home (groceries) grew 2 percent, and spending on maintenance and repairs for owned homes (home improvements) climbed 4 percent. None of these trends is a surprise.

But there are a couple of surprises uncovered by Demo Memo's analysis of the mid-year spending statistics. Average household spending on alcoholic beverages did not increase as some have suggested. Instead, spending on alcoholic beverages fell 4 percent between 2018-19 and 2019-20, after adjusting for inflation. This decline likely is the result of greatly reduced alcoholic beverage spending at bars and restaurants during the pandemic. Another surprise was a decline in spending on pets. With so many working from home, there were reports of a surge in new pet owners. But average household spending on pets fell 5 percent between 2018-19 and 2019-20.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

2020 Drop in Births Is 9th Largest

The 143,000 drop in births in 2020 was the ninth largest single-year decline in more than a century of record keeping. What were the eight bigger declines? Take a look...

10 largest annual declines in births (and reason for decline)

1. 1972: -298,000 (birth of Generation X)

2. 1965: -267,000 (birth of Generation X)

3. 1919: -208,000 (Spanish flu pandemic)

4. 1948: -180,000 (taking a breather from increases immediately after World War II)

5. 1971: -175,000 (birth of Generation X)

6. 1922: -173,000 (taking a breather from increases immediately after World War I)

7. 1944: -165,000 (World War II)

8. 1966: -154,000 (birth of Generation X)

9. 2020: -143,000 (Covid pandemic)

10. 1933: -133,000 (Great Depression)

The birth years of Generation X account for 4 of the 10 largest annual declines in births (1965, 1966, 1971, and 1972). The original "baby bust" generation was born during the years 1965 through 1976. 

The third largest decline in births, in 1919, was a consequence of the Spanish flu pandemic. It remains to be seen whether the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a larger decline in births in 2021 than in 2020, but it's a possibility. Here's why. Covid's impact on births was fully realized only in the last month of 2020. December 2020 births were a substantial 8 percent below the number of births in December of 2019, a much larger decline than in any other month of the year. Most of those December births were conceived in March, at the very beginning of the pandemic. It's likely there also will be a substantial decline in the number of births conceived during the months of April, May, and June of 2020, reflecting the hesitancy of young adults to have children in the midst of a growing pandemic. The 2021 decline in births, if there is one, could be larger than the one in 2020.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of National Center for Health Statistics and Census Bureau data

It Won't Be Long

In the 2020 presidential election, the Millennial and Gen Z generations accounted for just 38 percent of voters although their share of the citizen population is a larger 42 percent. Sure, the voter turnout of younger adults was higher than ever, but it doesn't match the turnout of older generations. That's about to change.

As Millennials and younger generations age, their voter participation rate will rise. Not long from now, the younger generations will become the majority of voters. In the 2024 presidential election, 45 percent of voters will be members of the Millennial and younger generations, according to Demo Memo projections. By 2028, they will be 51 percent of voters...

Millennial and younger generation share of voters in presidential elections

2020: 38%

2024: 45%

2028: 51%

Note: Demo Memo's projections of voters are based on the percentage of citizens who voted in 2020 by single year of age applied to the Census Bureau's single-year-of-age population projections adjusted for citizenship status. 

Of course, the voting dominance of Millennials and younger generations will just keep growing. By 2040, they will account for fully 70 percent of voters.

Source: Demo Memo projections of voters based on the Census Bureau's Voting and Registration in the  Election of November 2020 and 2017 Population Projections Tables

70% Have Received at least One Dose of Vaccine

Nearly three-quarters of American adults have now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. The latest survey was fielded April 14-26. The 70 percent who reported having had the vaccine as of the last two weeks of April is up substantially from the 47 percent who reported having been vaccinated one month earlier. 

The biggest increase in the vaccination rate between March and April was among young adults. The percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds who have received at least one dose of the vaccine jumped from just 19 percent at the end of March to the 53 percent majority by the end of April.

Percent who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine as of April 14-26

Total 18-plus: 70%

Aged 18 to 24: 53%

Aged 25 to 39: 57%

Aged 40 to 54: 66%

Aged 55 to 64: 78%

Aged 65-plus: 88%

There is continuing erosion in the number who say they probably/definitely will not get the vaccine. During this round of the survey, 29 million said no—down from 39 million in the last half of March. Some of the decline in naysaying is due to the fact that the Census Bureau added a new category of response in this iteration of the survey: "Unsure about getting a vaccine." Fully 17 million say they are unsure. 

Overall, 18 million adults (7 percent of the population) say they "definitely will not" get the vaccine, numbers that barely changed between March and April. Non-Hispanic whites are most likely to say they definitely will not get the vaccine (7.5 percent), followed by Blacks (6.8 percent), Hispanics (5.1 percent) and Asians (3.0 percent).

Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, April 14-26

Births in 2020: The Covid Baby Bust Begins

The number of births in the United States fell to 3,605,201 in 2020, the smallest number since 1979 and 143,000 fewer than in 2019. Behind the large drop in births is the ongoing fertility decline among American women as well as the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.  

Births peaked in the U.S. in 2007, when 4.3 million babies were born. The 2020 figure is 16 percent below that peak and 4 percent below the 2019 number. The birth decline intensified as 2020 progressed, according to National Center for Health Statistics data. In the first six months of the year, monthly births were about 2 percent below the 2019 numbers. By December 2020, they were 8 percent below what they had been a year earlier.  

Number of births for selected years (in 000s)

2020: 3,605
2019: 3,748
2018: 3,792
2017: 3,856
2016: 3,946
2015: 3,978 
2007: 4,316 (record high)

The number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 (the general fertility rate) fell to 55.8 in 2020. This was 4 percent lower than in 2019 and a new record low. 

The fertility decline is occurring in most age groups, with birth rates for women aged 15 to 19, 20 to 24, and 25 to 29 hitting new record lows in 2020. The fertility rate of 20-to-24-year-olds has fallen by a stunning 40 percent since 2007. 

The total fertility rate—the number of births a woman can expect in her lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates—fell to a record low of 1.637.5 in 2020. This is well below the 2.1 replacement level. "The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and has consistently been below replacement since 2007," NCHS reports.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Provisional Data for 2020

College Enrollment Rate Dropped in 2020

The college enrollment rate dropped in 2020. Only 62.7 percent of young adults who graduated from high school in 2020 had enrolled in college by October of that year, down from 66.2 percent in 2019. The decline "reflects the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic," the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Black high school graduates were the only ones whose college enrollment rate increased in 2020. 

College enrollment rate, 2020 (and percentage point change 2019—20)

Total: 62.7% (-3.5)

Asians: 83.2% (-6.7)

Blacks: 56.6% (+5.9)

Hispanics: 56.2% (-7.2)

Whites: 62.9% (-4.0)

Note: The college enrollment rate is defined as the percentage of 2020 high school graduates aged 16 to 24 who had enrolled in college by October of that year. The white race category includes Hispanics who identify themselves as white, which most do. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 62.7 Percent of 2020 High School Graduates Enrolled in College, down from 66.2 Percent in 2019

Huge Voter Turnout in 2020

We knew voter turnout was big in 2020. What we didn't know until now was which demographic segments were responsible for the big turnout. And the answer is—all of them. 

The answer comes from the Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey which, according to the Census Bureau, "is the most comprehensive data source available on the social and demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections." The bureau fields the supplement after each mid-term and presidential election to track the demographics of voters. The 2020 supplement was fielded November 15-24, shortly after the presidential election. The supplement asked respondents if they had registered to vote in the November 3 election, whether they had voted, and if not why not.

Overall, 155 million American citizens aged 18 or older reported voting in the November 2020 election—66.8 percent of the electorate. This is the highest voting rate since 1992 (Bill Clinton versus George H.W. Bush), when 67.7 percent voted. 

Voter participation increased in every race and Hispanic origin group in 2020, with record levels of voting by Asians, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites. Although Black voter participation was higher in 2020 than in most other election years, it did not set a record. The 62.6 percent Black voter participation rate in 2020 ranked third behind 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama was running for president.

Percent of citizens aged 18-plus who voted in November 2020 by race and Hispanic origin

Total citizens 18-plus: 66.8%

Asians: 59.7% (record high)

Blacks: 62.6%

Hispanics: 53.7% (record high)

Non-Hispanic whites: 70.9% (record high)

Voter participation also climbed to a record high in every age group in 2020. Among adults aged 18 to 24, voter participation exceeded 50 percent for the first time. 

Percent of citizens aged 18-plus who voted in November 2020 by age group

Total citizens 18-plus: 66.8%

Aged 18 to 24: 51.4% (record high)

Aged 25 to 44: 62.6% (record high)

Aged 45 to 64: 71.0% (record high)

Aged 65-plus: 74.5% (record high)

Overall, 71 percent of voters in the 2020 election were non-Hispanic whites. Sixty percent were aged 45 or older. But the share of all voters who were non-Hispanic whites aged 45 or older fell to 45 percent in 2020, down from 48 percent in 2016.

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2020