Average Age at First Birth, 2014

The average age of American women giving birth for the first time climbed to a record high of 26.3 in 2014—nearly four years greater than in 1980. Behind the rise in age at first birth is the increase in college attendance. The percentage of female high school graduates who enroll in college within 12 months of graduation climbed from half in 1980 to more than two-thirds today.

Average age at first birth
2014: 26.3
2010: 25.2
2007: 25.0
2000: 24.9
1990: 24.2
1980: 22.7

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2014, Supplemental Tables

Household Income Stable in November 2015

Median household income in November 2015 stood at $56,746, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the October median, after adjusting for inflation. The November 2015 median was 4.8 percent higher than the November 2014 median and 9.4 percent above the $51,875 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase significantly in November 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since the beginning of the last recession in December 2007." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in November 2015 was 1.9 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It has now surpassed (by $32) the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was still 1.1 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for November 2015 was 98.9 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: November 2015

State Migration, 2010 to 2015

Americans aren't moving as much as they once did, but those who move are having a big impact on some state populations. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia gained more domestic migrants than they lost between 2010 and 2015, while 29 states lost more than they gained. Here are the five states with the highest and lowest rates of net domestic migration during the past five years...

Highest rates of net domestic migration
1. North Dakota
2. District of Columbia
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. South Carolina

Lowest rates of net domestic migration (losses)
1. New York
2. Illinois
3. Alaska
4. New Jersey
5. Connecticut

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Child Care Costs Up 70%

Among families with employed mothers who pay for child care, the average weekly cost has grown from $84 in 1985 to $143 in 2011, after adjusting for inflation—a 70 percent increase. For families with preschoolers, the average weekly cost of child care in 2011 was an even higher $179. The steep and rising cost of child care explains why so many families with preschoolers depend on grandparents. Fully 21 percent of families with preschoolers and a working mother relied on a grandparent as the primary child care provider in 2011, up from 16 percent in 1985.

Source: Census Bureau, Who's Minding the Kids? Child Care Arrangements: Spring 2011

Uptick in the Tchotchke Index

The Tchotchke Index ticked up in 2014, with average household spending on gift shop items, home decor trinkets, and yard sale finds rising to $111. The rise in the index is a positive economic indicator. The more we're willing to spend on tchotchkes, the greater our economic well-being. Demo Memo Blog created the Tchotchke Index several years ago to track consumer confidence (here is the original post). It's the amount of money spent by the average household on "decorative items for the home," a category in the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Tchotchke index remains well below its peak. In 2000, the average household spent $263 (in 2014 dollars) on decorative items for the home. Spending plunged during the recession of the early 2000s, struggled to reach $236 in 2005, then plummeted during the Great Recession. The index hit an all-time low of $104 in 2013...

Tchotchke Index (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $111
2013: $104
2012: $131
2011: $123
2010: $110
2009: $142
2008: $139
2007: $177
2006: $166
2005: $236
2004: $208
2003: $168
2002: $198
2001: $202
2000: $263

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

State Population Change, 2010 to 2015

Between 2010 and 2015, the U.S. population as a whole grew 3.9 percent to 321 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 12.2 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state—West Virginia's population fell 0.5 percent during those years.

Fastest growing states, 2010 to 2015

1. North Dakota, 12.2%

2. District of Columbia, 11.1%

3. Texas, 8.8%

4. Colorado, 8.1%

5. Utah, 7.9%

6. Florida, 7.5%

7. Nevada, 6.9%

8. Arizona, 6.6%

9. Washington, 6.3%

10. South Carolina, 5.6%

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Is There Hope for Homeownership?

Even if the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds remains in the doldrums, the number of young-adult homeowners is likely to rise in the next few years, according to a Fannie Mae analysis. With the number of 25-to-34-year-olds in the population projected to expand by about 500,000 a year for the rest of the decade, a stable homeownership rate should result in growing numbers of homeowners in the age group.

The homeownership rate of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds plunged from 46.7 percent in 2006 to just 36.9 percent in 2014, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The number of homeowners in the age group fell by 1.8 million during those years. If the homeownership rate has hit bottom and remains there, then the number of homeowners in the age group will rise by 74,000 a year. That's a big reversal from the average annual loss of 231,000 homeowners aged 25 to 34 since 2006.

Whether the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds will stabilize is a big if, however. The Fannie Mae report notes that if the homeownership rate of the age group continues to fall at the same rate of decline as occurred from 2012 to 2014, then the number of homeowners aged 25 to 34 will shrink by 113,000 a year on average from now until 2020.

Source: Fannie Mae, Housing Insights, Could the Long Decline in Young-Adult Homeownership Be Nearing An End?

Trouble With the Redesigned CPS

Not everyone is happy with the redesigned Current Population Survey. An Employee Benefit Research Institute report questions some of the new numbers emerging from the redesign.

First, some background. The Census Bureau redesigned the Current Population Survey's income questions to better capture retirement income. The new income questions were presented to a split CPS sample in 2014 (collecting data for 2013) and to the full sample in 2015 (collecting data for 2014). The new questions successfully captured more retirement income, long known to be underreported. But anomalies are emerging in other CPS data. In particular, EBRI is troubled by a drop in retirement plan participation. Among full-time workers aged 21 to 64 in 2013, the percentage who participated in a retirement plan was only 49.5 percent based on the new questions versus 53.0 percent based on the old questions. In 2014 (when the entire CPS panel was asked the new questions), participation fell to 46.6 percent. The redesigned CPS is not only showing lower participation, says EBRI, but also declining participation—a larger decline than ever recorded in CPS data going back to 1987.

What really bugs EBRI is this: the biggest decline is occurring in the segment most likely to participate in a retirement plan—full-time workers aged 21 to 64 with earnings of $75,000 or more. The 2013 new questions found their participation to be 63.4 percent versus 68.6 percent with the old questions. In 2014, their participation declined to 61.1 percent. These declines are questionable, says EBRI, because other surveys show rising retirement plan participation.

"While the redesign of the CPS questionnaire achieved one of its primary goals of capturing more income—especially pension income—it appears to have had a serious impact on the results of other variables within the survey," EBRI researcher Craig Copeland concludes. In the future, he says, researchers may have to turn to alternative sources—such as the National Compensation Survey—to accurately track retirement plan participation.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, The Effect of the Current Population Survey Redesign on Retirement-Plan Participation Estimates

Who Thinks They're A Great Parent?

Among parents with children under age 18, most say they're doing a "very good job" as a parent, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Millennial mothers are most likely to give themselves a big pat on the back—57 percent say they're doing very well, thank you. A smaller 48 percent of Gen Xers feel that way. Among Boomers, the figure is just 41 percent.

There's a reason for these generational differences. Among parents with children under age 18, Millennials are most likely to have only preschoolers at home—an age group that generates feelings of smug satisfaction. Boomers are most likely to have teens under their roof—an age group that generates feelings of despair. Pew's survey examines this very phenomenon. Among parents whose oldest child is under age 6, the 52 percent majority say they're doing a very good job. Among those with teens at home, only 42 percent feel so certain.

Source: Pew Research Center, Parenting in America

College Does Not Protect Wealth of Blacks, Hispanics

College graduates weather economic downturns better than those with less education. That's the assumption, but is it true? Only for Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Take a look at the inflation adjusted 2007-to-2013 trend in median net worth by educational attainment of householder for each race and Hispanic origin group...

Asian households
With bachelor's degree: +5%
Without bachelor's degree: -65%

Non-Hispanic White households
With bachelor's degree: -16%
Without bachelor's degree: -33%

Black households
With bachelor's degree: -60%
Without bachelor's degree: -37%

Hispanic households
With bachelor's degree: -72%
Without bachelor's degree: -41%

For Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, a college degree offered some protection during the Great Recession. For Blacks and Hispanics, a college degree meant greater losses. As disturbing as this finding is, it gets worse. The same pattern can be found over the longer term—from 1992 to 2013. Asian and non-Hispanic White households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth grow by more than 80 percent during those years, after adjusting for inflation, while their less-educated counterparts experienced a decline. But Black and Hispanic households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth shrink between 1992 and 2013. For Hispanic college graduates, net worth fell 27 percent during those years versus a 31 percent increase in the net worth of their less-educated counterparts. For Black college graduates, net worth fell 56 percent between 1992 and 2013 while Blacks without a college degree experienced a smaller 4 percent loss.

"College degrees alone do not provide short-term wealth protection, nor do they guarantee long-term wealth accumulation," conclude the researchers. "The underlying factors causing racial and ethnic wealth disparities undoubtedly are complex and deeply rooted. Further research is needed."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Center for Household Financial Stability, Why Didn't Higher Education Protect Hispanic and Black Wealth?

Median Housing Value Grows—Finally

The median value of owned homes in the United States increased in 2014 for the first time since the Great Recession. The nation's homeowners estimated their home's value to be a median of $181,200 in 2014, according to the American Community Survey. This is 2.5 percent more than the post-Great Recession low of $176,721 in 2013, after adjusting for inflation, but 18 percent below the 2007 median of $221,845.

Median housing value, 2007 to 2014 (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $181,200
2013: $176,721
2012: $177,247
2011: $182,705
2010: $195,311
2009: $204,363
2008: $217,271
2007: $221,845

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Nearly Half of Americans Play Video Games

Almost half of American adults (49 percent) play video games (on a computer, TV, game console, cell phone, or tablet), according to a Pew Research Center survey. A smaller 10 percent consider themselves "gamers."

Percent who play video games by age
Aged 18 to 29: 67%
Aged 30 to 49: 58%
Aged 50 to 64: 40%
Aged 65-plus: 25%

Interestingly, men and women are about equally likely to report ever playing video games—50 percent of men and 48 percent of women. Among 18-to-29-year-olds, 77 percent of men and 57 percent of women play video games. The gender pattern is reversed among adults aged 50 or older: 29 percent of men and a larger 38 percent of women play video games.

Source: Pew Research Center, Gaming and Gamers

Boomer Women at Work: A History

The women of the baby-boom generation were the first to make paid work the norm for wives and mothers. Now that the oldest boomers are reaching retirement age, demographer Javier Garcia-Manglano looks back at their labor force experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women, he examines the work and family history of women born between 1944 and 1954 and finds boomer women fitting into four types...

Consistently attached to the labor force: 40%
The most common type, the Consistently Attached have worked for decades with nary a break. They are the type most likely to be childless (40%) and least likely to be married to a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (13%). Interestingly, this type is least likely to have a husband in the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly attached to the labor force: 27%
Early marriage and childbearing define these women. The Increasingly Attached are most likely to have ever married and to have had a first birth while in their early twenties. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (55%). Perhaps as a consequence, they have the highest divorce rate among the four groups (50%).

Consistently detached from the labor force: 21%
Early childbearing and health problems are the defining characteristics of this group. Among the four types, the Consistently Detached are most likely to have had a teen birth, an out-of-wedlock birth, and three or more children. Half have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay. A substantial 42 percent have health problems that limit work. Interestingly, this type is the one most likely to have a husband in either the lowest or the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly detached from the labor force: 13%
Health and job problems have been experienced disproportionately by the Increasingly Detached. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a health condition limiting their work (44%). They are also most likely to have experienced discrimination on the job (24%).

Source: Opting out Leaning In: The Life Course Employment Profiles of Early Baby Boom Women in the United States, Javier Garcia-Manglano, Demography ($39.95)

Americans Don't Think They Are Overweight

Only 37 percent of Americans think they are overweight, according to a Gallup survey.

Not so, says the National Center for Health Statistics, which actually measures the height and weight of a nationally representative sample of the population. According to its measurements, a much larger 69 percent of Americans are overweight.

Source: Gallup, Fewer Americans Say They Want to Lose Weight

Boomers Missing Go-Go Years of Retirement

It looks like a lot of boomers will miss out on the go-go years of retirement. That's because of a stunning increase in the labor force participation rate of men and women in their sixties, according to new labor force projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• The labor force participation rate of men aged 62 to 64 will climb to 60 percent by 2024, up from just 45 percent in 1994. Work is now the norm for men in the age group. For their fathers who retired in the 1990s, retirement was the norm. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 62 to 64 will reach 47 percent by 2024, up from 33 percent a generation ago in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69 will climb to 40 percent by 2024, up from 27 percent in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 65 to 69 will climb to 33 percent by 2024, up from 18 percent a generation ago. 

Because of the growing labor force participation of older boomers, the go-go retirement market (aged 55 to 74) will be 18 percent smaller in 2024 than it would have been if boomers were retiring at the rate their parents did in 1994. The number of retirees aged 55 to 64 is projected to shrink 3 percent during the decade ahead. While the number of retirees aged 65 to 74 will increase, the gain will be less than in the 2004-14 decade. Industries that depend on go-go retirees—casinos, travel, RVs, golfing communities—may want to rethink their strategy as growth in the active retirement market will be much more modest than once anticipated.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014 to 2024

The number of non-Hispanic Whites in the labor force is shrinking, according to the latest set of projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past decade, the number of non-Hispanic White workers fell by 2.5 million. During the next decade, they will decline by another 3 million. The non-Hispanic White share of the labor force will fall from 65 to 60 percent between 2014 and 2024.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by race and Hispanic origin, 2014 to 2024
Asians: +2,032,000 (23%)
Blacks: +1,899,000 (10%)
Hispanics: +7,116,000 (28%)
Non-Hispanic Whites: -3,039,000 (-3%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Who Owns Multiple Digital Devices?

Most Americans own multiple digital devices, according to a Pew survey. Fully 66 percent of adults own at least two devices (smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer) and 36 percent own all three. By age, this is who owns all three devices...

Own smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer
Aged 18 to 29: 41%
Aged 30 to 49: 51%
Aged 50 to 64: 27%
Aged 65-plus: 16%

Source: Pew Research Center, Smartphone, Computer or Tablet? 36% of Americans Own All Three

Household Income Stable in October 2015

Median household income in October 2015 stood at $56,671, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the September median, after adjusting for inflation. The October 2015 median was 5.3 percent higher than the October 2014 median and 9.3 percent above the $51,860 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase in October 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in October 2015 was 1.8 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was about the same as the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 1.2 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for October 2015 was 98.8 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: October 2015

Spending by Generation, 2014

In an experimental research effort, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has examined household spending by generation based on data from the 2014 Consumer Expenditure Survey (birth years based on Pew Research Center definitions)...

Average household spending in 2014
Millennials (1981 and later): $43,942
Generation X (1965 to 1980): $63,137
Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964): $58,202
Silent Generation (1929 to 1945): $40,923
WWII Generation (1928 and earlier): $32,610

Gen Xers spend much more on mortgage interest than any other generation. Many bought homes when housing prices were peaking. Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers spend more on cell service than landline service. Eighty percent of Millennial households own a car. Ownership peaks at 91 percent among Boomers and falls with age to 66 percent in the WWII generation (aged 86 or older). Gen Xers spend the most on men's clothes. Boomers spend the most on women's clothes. Average household spending on entertainment is highest among Gen Xers. Millennials spend relatively little on entertainment, surpassing only the WWII generation. Even the Silent generation spends more on entertainment than Millennials.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CE Experimental Research Tables

Wireless-Only Demographics, January-June 2015

Forty-seven percent of Americans aged 18 or older live in a wireless-only household—meaning the household has cell phones but no landline. Among children, the figure is an even higher 55 percent. These are the demographic segments with a wireless-only majority...

85% of people who live with non-relatives
71% of 25-to-29-year-olds
68% of 30-to-34-year-olds
67% of renters
59% of 18-to-24-year-olds
59% of the poor
59% of Hispanics
57% of 35-to-44-year-olds
54% of the near-poor
53% of adults living with children
53% of workers
52% of people in the Midwest
51% of people who live alone
50% of people in the South

Least likely to live in a wireless-only household are people aged 65 or older (19%), those in the Northeast (32%), and homeowners (37%).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June 2015

Single-Person Households by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2015

People who live alone head a substantial 28 percent of households in the United States. The figure varies by race and Hispanic origin. More than one in three Black households are headed by people who live alone compared with only 17 percent of Hispanic households...

Single-person households as a share of total households in 2015
17.2% of Hispanic households
18.4% of Asian households
29.5% of non-Hispanic White households
34.8% of Black households

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

For Many, Spending Rises After Retirement

Many households spend more rather than less after retirement, reports the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Analyzing data from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study, EBRI researcher Sudipto Banerjee finds a rise in spending for many retirees. In the first year or two of retirement, 46 percent of households spend more. By the sixth year of retirement, 33 percent are spending more than they had in their pre-retirement years.

Post retirement spending as a percent of preretirement spending in sixth year of retirement
Spending less than 80 percent of preretirement income: 53.1%
Spending 80 to 100 percent of preretirement income:: 13.4%
Spending 100 to 120 percent of preretirement income: 10.0%
Spending 120 percent or more of preretirement income: 23.4%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Change in Household Spending After Retirement: Results from a Longitudinal Sample

Most Millennials Say Finances Are Improving

Thirty-six percent of Americans aged 18 or older think their financial situation is improving, according to the 2014 General Social Survey. This figure is higher than it was in 2010, when only 25 percent felt things were getting better. Older Americans are least likely to feel this way (15 percent), largely because most are on fixed incomes. Young adults are most likely to feel upbeat. The majority of Millennials in 2014 said their finances were getting better...

Percent of Millennials who say their financial situation is getting better
2014: 54.1%
2012: 39.1%
2010: 34.2%

Note: Millennials were aged 20 to 37 in 2014.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey

Empty Piggy Banks

How much money could the typical household access within 30 days to cover the cost of a financial shock? According to the Survey of American Family Finances, the median household could get its hands on just $3,000 within 30 days. That's not much of a buffer, and it includes credit cards and help from friends and family.

In the second of three reports on the finances of American households, Pew Charitable Trusts examines the financial assets available to families when they experience a financial shock. That's when, not if. Financial shocks are the norm. Fully 60 percent of households experienced a financial shock in the past year, according to the findings of Pew's first report, available here.

One of the most important resources for weathering a financial shock is liquid savings, which Pew defines as money in a checking or savings account, cash saved at home, and the value of unused prepaid cards. The typical household has only $3,800 in liquid savings, and a substantial one in four has less than $400.

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, What Resources Do Families Have for Financial Emergencies?

Median Age at First Marriage: 2015

Women: The median age of women marrying for the first time inched up to 27.1 in 2015, a bit higher than the 27.0 of 2014 and a full seven years above the all-time low of 20.1 in 1956.

Men: The median age of men marrying for the first time fell slightly to 29.2 in 2015, a bit lower than the 29.3 of 2014 and nearly seven years greater than the 22.5 low of 1956.

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements, Historical Time Series

Who Wants Private Health Insurance?

Most Americans now believe it is the responsibility of the federal government to ensure all Americans have health insurance, finds a Gallup survey, up from 45 percent who felt that way just one year ago. But there are big differences in attitudes by age: fully 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds think it's the federal government's responsibility compared with only 38 percent of the elderly, who are universally covered by the federal government's Medicare system.

When Gallup asked the public whether it would prefer a government-run health insurance system or one based on private insurance, the 55 percent majority still favors private rather than public. Americans aged 65 or older are the ones most likely to favor a private health insurance system, despite the fact that they are covered by a public plan...

Percent who would rather have a private health insurance system
Aged 18 to 29: 45%
Aged 30 to 49: 56%
Aged 50 to 64: 58%
Aged 65-plus: 63%

Source: Gallup, In U.S., 51% Say Government Should Ensure Healthcare Coverage

Why Do Hispanics Live Longer?

Hispanics live longer than non-Hispanic Whites, a life expectancy advantage known as the "Hispanic Paradox" because no one can explain it. Given the relatively low socioeconomic status of Hispanics, their life expectancy should be well below that of non-Hispanic Whites. Instead, Hispanic life expectancy at birth is 2.6 years greater.

In an effort to explain the paradox, researchers from the National Center for Health Statistics analyzed death rates to determine which causes of death are killing non-Hispanic Whites at a higher rate than Hispanics. The finding: it's the big ones. Hispanics are less likely than non-Hispanic Whites to die from cancer, heart disease, accidents, suicide, chronic lower respiratory disease, Parkinson's disease, and Alzheimer's. Lower death rates from cancer alone account for a quarter of the 2.6 year life expectancy advantage of Hispanics over non-Hispanic Whites.

Why are Hispanics less likely than non-Hispanic Whites to die from cancer, heart disease, and other major causes of death? No one has the answer to that question, and so the Hispanic Paradox continues.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, How Does Cause of Death Contribute to the Hispanic Mortality Advantage in the United States?

The ACA and Time Use of Young Adults

The Affordable Care Act is changing time use in the United States, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. The expansion of dependent care coverage up to age 26 has reduced job-lock among young adults and resulted in shorter medical visits, particularly wait times, say NBER researchers after analyzing American Time Use Survey data. Medical visits are shorter, the researchers hypothesize, because young adults can now access routine medical care rather than relying on hospital ER care.

What are young adults doing with their extra hours and minutes? They are socializing more, going to school, and looking for work, say the researchers, concluding: "Availability of insurance and change in work time appear to have increased young adults' subjective well-being, enabling them to spend time on activities they view as more meaningful than those they did before insurance became available."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, It's About Time: Effects of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate on Time Use, NBER Working Paper #21725 ($5)

Americans So-So on Financial Literacy

In a worldwide survey of financial literacy, the United States scored only so-so for a major advanced economy. Fifty-seven percent of Americans correctly answered three of four financial literacy questions: understanding interest rates, compound interest, inflation, and risk diversification. Among the 144 nation's included in the survey, the U.S. ranked 14th. Norway was number one, with 71 percent of  its residents able to answer three of the four questions. Yemen was last, with only 13 percent answering three questions correctly.

Within the United States, financial literacy varies by demographic characteristic. Men are more literate than women (62 versus 52 percent). The middle-aged (aged 35 to 54) are more literate than younger or older adults (65 versus 57 percent), and the richest 60 percent of Americans are more literate than the poorest 40 percent (64 versus 47 percent).

Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Global Financial Literacy Survey

Six Kinds of Debt

Fully 89 percent of Americans with credit records fall into one of six debt types, according to an Urban Institute analysis of millions of credit records over a five-year period of time...

• 29% have no debt
• 22% have only credit card debt
• 13% have only mortgage debt
• 12% have only vehicle debt
• 9% have vehicle and mortgage debt
• 4% have only student loan debt

These "debt styles" depend on lifestage, of course. Mortgage debt, for example, peaks at 41 percent among consumers aged 48 to 52. Student loans peak at 23 percent among those aged 23 to 27. The Urban Institute report examines debt during the 2010-to-2014 time period by age of consumer, including loan balances and credit scores.

Source: Urban Institute, Americans' Debt Styles by Age and Over Time

Hate Crimes in 2014

There were 5,479 hate crime incidents in 2014, according to the FBI. Most (5,462) involved a single bias—meaning the perpetrator targeted only one characteristic (such as race, sexual orientation, etc.). Race is the single most frequently targeted characteristic, accounting for 47 percent of single-bias hate crimes in 2014. Sexual orientation and religion each accounted for 19 percent of the total, ethnicity for 12 percent, gender identity and disability for 2 percent each, and gender for the remaining 1 percent.

Top 10 hate crimes by targeted characteristic
Anti-Black: 1,621 (29.7%)
Anti-Jewish: 609 (11.1%)
Anti-gay: 599 (11.0%)
Anti-White: 593 (10.9%)
Anti-not Hispanic: 349 (6.4%)
Anti-Hispanic: 299 (5.5%)
Anti LGBT:  241 (4.4%)
Anti-Islamic: 154 (2.8%)
Anti-Asian: 140 (2.6%)
Anti-American Indian: 130 (2.4%)

There is some good news in the hate crime report. Most jurisdictions reported no hate crimes in 2014. Of the 15,494 law enforcement agencies participating in the Hate Crime Statistics Program, only 1,666 reported the occurrence of a hate crime.

Source: FBI, 2014 Hate Crime Statistics

Obesity by Age, 2011-14

When it comes to measuring obesity, the federal government doesn't fool around with self-reported heights and weights. That's because, given the chance, many people overestimate their height and underestimate their weight. Rather than ask people for their measurements, the federal government takes them—measuring the height and weight of a representative sample of Americans across the country. After collecting the numbers, Body Mass Index is calculated (weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). In adults, obesity is defined as a BMI equal to or greater than 30. In children, obesity is defined as a BMI equal to or greater than the age- and sex-specific 95th percentile of the CDC's growth charts.

According to measurements taken in 2011-14, a substantial 36.3 percent of adults (aged 20 or older) were obese, up from 30.5 percent in 1999-2000. Among youth (under age 20), 17.0 percent were obese, up from 13.9% in 1999-2000. Here are the results by age...

Percent obese, 2011-14
Aged 2 to 5:       8.9%
Aged 6 to 11:    17.5%
Aged 12 to 19:  20.5%
Aged 20 to 39:  32.3%
Aged 40 to 59:  40.2%
Aged 60-plus:   37.0%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Prevalence of Obesity among Adults and Youth: United States, 2011-2014

Still Stuck: Mobility Rate Near Record Low in 2014-15

Americans still aren't moving much. Only 11.6 percent of U.S. residents aged 1 or older as of March 2015 had moved in the previous 12 months, according to the Census Bureau. This mobility rate is just 0.1 percentage points above the all-time low of 11.5 percent recorded in 2013-14. The tiny increase was due to a bump up in movers from abroad.

Among homeowners, only 5.1 percent moved in the 2014-15 time period, higher than the all-time low of 4.7 percent in 2010-11. Among renters, the mobility rate fell to an all-time low of 24.0 percent in 2014-15. 

Source: Census Bureau, Migration/Geographic Mobility

Seismic Shift in Spending on Groceries

There has been "a seismic shift in how people eat," according to a New York Times headline. Per capita consumption of soda, orange juice, and cereal are all down as Americans more fresh food and less sugar, reports the Times. Consumer Expenditure Survey data confirm the Times story. Here are the trends in average household spending for selected groceries between 2006 (the year overall household spending peaked) and 2014....

Percent change in average household spending, 2006 to 2014 (in 2014 dollars)
23% decline in spending on ice cream
23% decline in spending on fresh fruit juice
22% decline in spending on cakes and cupcakes
16% decline in spending on carbonated drinks
16% decline in spending on canned and bottled fruit juice
10% decline in spending on cookies
9% decline in spending on cereal
5% decline in spending on candy and chewing gum

In contrast to these declines, the average household spent more on: bacon (31%), yogurt (31%), nuts (23%), fresh fruit (19%), and fresh vegetables (6%). Clearly, the New York Times is on to something.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Surveys

Who Is Multiracial?

The size of the multiracial population depends on how questions about race are asked, reports Pew Research Center. In a test of how different questions produce different results, Pew surveyed a nationally representative sample of adults and found the following...

Standard two-questions: This is the methodology currently used in the decennial census, Current Population Survey, and American Community Survey. Respondents are first asked to select their race(s), then they are asked about Hispanic origin. Result: 3.7 percent of the population is multiracial.

Single question with Hispanic as an option: This single race-or-origin question is being considered for the 2020 census, replacing the above methodology. Respondents are asked to select their race or origin, with Hispanic as one of the choices. Result: 4.8 percent of the population is multiracial (not including Hispanic responses).

Family history questions: Respondents are asked not only about their own race but also the race of their parents and grandparents. Result: 6.9 percent of the population is multiracial. When respondents are asked about the race of great-grandparents and earlier ancestors, the multiracial share rises to 13.1 percent.

Source: Pew Research Center, Who Is Multiracial? Depends on How You Ask

Household Income Distribution in 2014

Income distribution of American households in 2014 (and % of households with two or more earners)...

Less than $25,000: 24 percent (5%)
$25,000 to $49,999: 23 percent (23%)
$50,000 to $74,999: 17 percent (45%)
$75,000 to $99,999: 12 percent (61%)
$100,000 to $124,999: 8 percent (68%)
$125,000 to $149,999: 5 percent (74%)
$150,000 to $174,999: 4 percent (73%)
$175,000 to $199,999: 2 percent (77%)
$200,000 or more: 6 percent (76%)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2015 Current Population Survey

Television News Still Tops

Television still dominates the news. A 45 percent plurality of Americans say they get most of their information about events in the news from television. A smaller 35 percent get most of their news from the Internet, and 10 percent from newspapers. There are big differences by generation, however...

Percent who get most of their news from television
Millennials: 29%
Gen Xers: 49%
Boomers: 50%
Older: 65%

Percent who get most of their news from the Internet
Millennials: 57%
Gen Xers: 32%
Boomers: 27%
Older: 6%

Note: In 2014, Millennials were 20 to 37; Gen Xers were 38 to 49; Boomers were 50 to 68.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Demographic Story of the Week: Death Rate Rises

The death rate of middle-aged white Americans is rising, according to a study by Princeton economists Angus Deaton (winner of the 2015 Nobel prize) and Anne Case and reported in the New York Times. The rise in the death rate is occurring among whites aged 45 to 54 and is limited to those with  a high school diploma or less education. Behind the rise are more suicides and higher rates of drug and alcohol poisoning.

If you haven't already read this troubling story, you can read it here: Death Rates Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans, Study Finds

Men 65-Plus Who Work Full-Time

Overall, 15.1 percent of men aged 65 or older work full-time, but the figure varies greatly by educational attainment...

Men aged 65 or older who work full-time by highest level of education
  7.5%: no high school diploma
12.6%: high school graduate only
15.0%: some college
14.5%: Associate's degree
20.7%: Bachelor's degree
16.8%: Master's degree
28.5%: Doctoral degree
32.6%: Professional degree

The pattern is the same for women, although the percentages are less. Among women aged 65 or older, the percentage who work full-time ranges from 4 percent among those with less than a high school education to a high of 24 percent among those with a professional degree.

Source: Census Bureau, 2015 Current Population Survey

Epic Political Battle Is Religious Too

The political parties are divided by more than ideology. Religion also divides them...

• The single largest religious block among Democrats is the unaffiliated (28%), followed by Catholics (21%), Evangelical Protestants (16%), Mainline Protestants (13%), and historically Black Protestants (12%).
• The largest single religious block among Republicans is Evangelical Protestant (38%), followed by Catholics (21%), Mainline Protestants (17%), the unaffiliated (14%), and other Christian groups (4%).

Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Public Becoming Less Religious

Do People Run Out of Money In Retirement?

What are the chances you will run out of money in retirement? An Employee Benefit Research Institute study determined that 12 percent of older American have no assets of any kind at the time of death. But did they run out money or never have it to begin with?

It's likely they never had it, according to an NBER analysis of how the assets of older Americans change over time. "The level of assets of individuals approaching the end of life is determined primarily by the assets these individuals held many years earlier," the NBER researchers conclude after examining the assets of individuals in the Health and Retirement Study from first observation in 1992 or 1993 until their death. "Most of those with limited assets at death also had limited assets earlier in life. They did not run out of assets in retirement; they never had many assets to begin with."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, What Determines End-of-Life Assets? A Retrospective View, Working Paper 21682

60% of Households Experience Financial Shocks

In a year's time, most households experience a financial shock, according to Pew Charitable Trusts Survey of American Family Finances. In the survey, Pew asked a nationally representative sample of Americans whether they had experienced any of the following unexpected financial shocks: income cut; hospitalization; separation, divorce, or widowhood; major vehicle repair; major housing repair; or some other large unexpected expense. The 60 percent majority of households had experienced one or more shocks in the past 12 months...

30% had a major car repair
24% had a major home repair
24% experienced a hospital trip
24% experienced a pay cut
3% experienced separation, divorce, or widowhood
10% experienced other large, unexpected expenses

How much do these shocks set people back? The median cost of the average household's most expensive shock was $2,000, says Pew. Such shocks have psychological consequences. Among households that did not experience a shock, 64 percent reported feeling financially secure. Among those who did, only 41 percent felt secure. In the coming weeks, Pew will examine the resources available to families to help them weather these all too common financial shocks.

Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, How Do Families Cope with Financial Shocks?

Smartphones: Portal to the Internet

When deciding how important mobile is to e-commerce efforts, companies might think it's about as important as desktop sites. After all, 68 percent of Americans own a smartphone and a larger 73 percent own a desktop or laptop computer, according to a survey by Pew Research Center. But this way of thinking ignores two important facts: 1) Mobile Internet usage exceeds PC Internet usage; and 2) Mobile devices (smartphones) are the primary portal to the Internet for many important segments of the population...

Blacks (percent owning)
Smartphone: 68%
Desktop/laptop: 45%

Aged 18 to 29 (percent owning)
Smartphone: 86%
Desktop/laptop: 78%

Urban residents (percent owning)
Smartphone: 72%
Desktop/laptop: 67%

Source: Pew Research Center, The Demographics of Device Ownership

Tech Has Gotten A Whole Lot Cheaper

If you're frustrated over the rising cost of necessities, these numbers should cheer you up. Some of the items we value most highly are a whole lot cheaper than they used to be. For every $100 you spent on these items in 1997, an item of similar quality today would cost...

Television: $5.50
Computer: $4.20
Computer software: $36.80
Internet service: $76.00
Audio equipment: $40.40
Photographic equipment: $41.50

Some tech is getting more expensive. For every $100 you devoted to cable service in 1997, you're now paying a larger $180.50.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Long-term Price Trends for Computers, TVs, and Related Items

How Many Renters Want to Buy?

The number of renter-occupied homes grew by more than 1.3 million in the past year, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey, while the number of owner-occupied homes inched up by just 123,000. From the third quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015, the nation's homeownership rate fell from 64.4 to 63.7 percent.

Clearly the number of renters is surging, which begs the question: how many of those renters are wannabe homeowners who could potentially energize the housing market? Shedding some light on that question is the Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, fielded in 2013 and 2014. The survey asked renters why they rent. In 2013, 10 percent of renters identified themselves as wannabe homeowners, looking to buy a house. When the Feds surveyed the same respondents in 2014, one-third of the renters who wanted to buy had become homeowners. Among renters who had not expressed a desire to buy, only 3 percent had bought a home.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2014

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2015

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2015: 46.8%

The homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 30 to 34 climbed in the third quarter of 2015 to 46.8 percent, up from 45.2 percent in the second quarter of 2015. While this is encouraging news for the housing industry, a similar uptick occurred in the last half of 2014, followed by a plunge to record lows in the first two quarters of 2015. The rise in homeownership could be nothing more than a bobble at the bottom, or it could signal emerging vitality in the housing market. 

Historically, homeownership became the norm in the 30-to-34 age group—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. It's been stuck there ever since. The new age of first-time home buying is 35 to 39, but even this age group has been slipping toward the 50-percent threshold. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds stood at 54.6 percent in the third quarter of 2015—a new record low for the age group. Since peaking in the first quarter of 2007, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds has fallen by more than 10 percentage points.

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 63.7 percent in the third quarter of 2015, down from 64.4 percent a year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Individually Purchased Health Insurance, 2014

A substantial 13 percent of Americans under age 65 now have health insurance purchased directly from private health insurance companies, thanks in large part to the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act. The Employee Benefit Research Institute has produced a detailed analysis of 2014 health insurance stats, and this is who has insurance through their own individual plan by age and family income...

Percent with individually purchased health insurance by age
Under age 18: 9.9%
Aged 18 to 25: 13.3%
Aged 26 to 34: 11.8%
Aged 35 to 44: 11.3%
Aged 45 to 54: 14.8%
Aged 55 to 64: 16.1%

Percent with individually purchased health insurance by family income
Under $10,000: 12.4%
$10,000 to $19,999: 11.8%
$20,000 to $29,999: 13.1%
$30,000 to $39,999: 13.4%
$40,000 to $49,999: 13.5%
$50,000 to $74,999: 13.6%
$75,000 or more: 11.9%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Sources of Health Insurance Coverage: A Look at Changes Between 2013 and 2014 from the March 2014 and 2015 Current Population Survey

Household Income Stable in September 2015

Median household income in September 2015 stood at $56,279, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the August median, after adjusting for inflation. The September 2015 median was 4.3 percent higher than the September 2014 median and 8.7 percent above the $51,756 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase in September 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in September 2015 was 1.3 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was only 0.5 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 1.7 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for September 2015 was 98.3 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: September 2015

Changes in Attitudes Toward Marijuana by Birth Year

Fully 58 percent of Americans support the legalization of marijuana, according to a Gallup survey. This is up from just 33 percent who favored it in 2000-01. Although younger adults are most supportive, the majority in every age group except the oldest are now in favor...

Support legalizing the use of marijuana
Aged 18 to 29: 71%
Aged 35 to 49: 64%
Aged 50 to 64: 58%
Aged 65-plus: 35%

Attitudes toward the legalization of marijuana are changing because older Americans are being replaced by younger, more tolerant (and experienced) generations. Support is growing also because people are changing their minds about marijuana. Gallup analyzes the ongoing attitude shift by year of birth, finding growing support for legalization over the past 15 years in all but the oldest birth cohort...

                                 Support legalization
                                  2000-01         2015
Born 1966 to 1980:       43%            64%
Born 1951 to 1965:       35%            58%
Born 1936 to 1950:       29%            40%
Born 1935 or before:     18%            19%

Source: Gallup, In U.S., 58% Back Legal Marijuana Use

Where Did All the Construction Workers Go?

That's the question asked by Census Bureau researchers in a Research Matters blog post. With the economy picking up steam, builders and contractors are reporting (anecdotally) some difficulty in finding construction workers, according to the researchers. What happened to all those housing bubble workers after the bubble burst?

Unfortunately, this story does not have a happy ending. After analyzing Job-to-Job Flows public-use data and zeroing in on those workers who stopped working for more than three months between 2006 and 2009, the researchers found that most of those workers had either abandoned the industry entirely or were still jobless long after the end of the Great Recession...

• about 40% eventually found another construction job
• about 33% eventually found work in another industry, but typically after more than a year without a job
• about 25% were still not employed as of the end of 2013

Source: Census Bureau, Research Matters Blog, Where Did All The Construction Workers Go?

College Enrollment Declines in 2014

College enrollment fell for the third year in a row in 2014, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Only 19.2 million students were enrolled in college in 2014, down from the 20.4 million peak of 2011. But there's more to the story: most of the enrollment decline since 2012 has occurred at two-year schools. Behind the decline is the improving economy, allowing many who were cooling their heels at two-year schools to go back to work.

College enrollment in 2014 (and numerical change since 2012)
All colleges: 19.2 million (-755,000)
Two-year schools: 4.8 million (-988,000)
Four-year schools: 10.7 million (+316,000)
Graduate schools: 3.7 million (-83,000)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment

Fewer Are Reading Print Books

Book reading is down slightly from what it used to be, reports Pew Research Center, with print books accounting for all of the decline. Seventy-two percent of adults say they read at least one book in the past 12 months, according to Pew's 2015 survey, down from 79 percent in 2011. The percentage who read a book in print fell from 71 to 63 percent during those years. The percentage who read an e-book climbed from 17 to 27 percent, and audio book reading was about the same in both years at 11 to 12 percent.

Young adults are most likely to have read any book in the past 12 months. In the 2015 survey, fully 80 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds say they read a book in the past year compared with 71 percent of 30-to-49-year-olds and 68 to 69 percent of people aged 50 or older. Young adults are ahead of the other age groups in reading both print and e-books...

Read a print book (or e-book) in the past 12 months
Total adults: 63% (27%)
Aged 18 to 29: 69% (34%)
Aged 30 to 49: 63% (33%)
Aged 50 to 64: 59% (23%)
Aged 65-plus: 61% (15%)

Source: Pew Research Center, Slightly Fewer Americans Are Reading Print Books, New Survey Finds

Most Smokers Are Trying to Quit

Most smokers have tried to quit smoking in the past year, according to the CDC. Among current and former smokers in 2013, fully 66 percent had attempted to quit, which is defined as going one or more days without smoking in the past 12 months because they were trying to quit. By age, younger adults are most likely to have attempted to quit...

Percent of current/former smokers who attempted to quit smoking in past year
Aged 18 to 24: 73.2%
Aged 24 to 44: 68.7%
Aged 45 to 64: 60.9%
Aged 65-plus: 56.4%

Source: CDC, Trends in Quit Attempts among Adult Cigarette Smokers—United States, 2001-2013

Where Americans Grew Up

There's a reason why Americans are nostalgic for small-town life. The largest share of Americans (one in three) say that's where they grew up...

"Which comes the closest to the type of place you were living in when you were 16-years-old?"
16% in a city with a population of 250,000 or more
15% in the suburb of a city with a population of 250,000 or more
17% in a city with a population of 50,000 to 250,000
33% in a town with a population of less than 50,000
10% in the country but not on a farm
8% on a farm

Source: Demo Memo Analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Long-Term Care Policy Lapses and Cognitive Decline

Among men and women aged 65 who have purchased long-term care insurance, more than one in three will let their policy lapse before they die. Why do so many policies lapse? That's what researchers at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wanted to know. Their analysis shows that cognitive impairment is one important reason for lapsing. With age, some policy holders—the ones who will need long-term care the most—forget to pay the premium or no longer understand why they need a policy.

A higher cognitive score is associated with lower lapse rates, report the researchers. Interestingly, so is having a daughter—someone who can remind the policyholder of the importance of paying the premium. "Having a daughter is associated with a 14.3-percentage-point decrease in the probability of lapsing," the researchers report.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Why Do People Lapse Their Long-Term Care Insurance?

Cable Still Rules, But Trouble Looms

The average household spent an astonishing $723 on cable and satellite television service in 2014, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. That's 5 percent more than in 2013 ($691), 7 percent more than in 2010 ($675), 14 percent more than in 2006 ($633), and a whopping 64 percent more than in 2000 ($442), after adjusting for inflation. Cable ranks among the top 15 items on which the average household spends the most.

Although many have predicted the demise of cable as more Americans adopt video streaming, average household spending on cable and satellite service continues to grow. But another statistic reveals a troubling trend—a decline in the customer base. Only 70 percent of households purchased cable/satellite service during an average quarter of 2014, down from 74 percent in 2010. The decline is biggest among younger householders...

Percentage spending on cable/satellite service by age of householder, average quarter 2014
(and percentage point change since 2010)
Under age 25: 39% (-10.2)
Aged 25 to 34: 59%  (-9.1)
Aged 35 to 44: 70%  (-5.0)
Aged 45 to 54: 73% (-3.5)
Aged 55 to 64: 76% (-2.0)
Aged 65-plus: 78% (-0.1)

Average household spending on cable and satellite television service continues to rise, but only because a shrinking customer base is spending more.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Professional Degrees Earned by Women

Women's share of selected professional degrees awarded in 2012-13...

Veterinary: 77.3%
Optometry: 63.4%
Pharmacy: 61.6%
Dentistry: 48.1%
Medicine: 48.0%
Law: 46.4%
Theology: 31.1%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics

7% Victims of Identity Theft in 2014

Nearly 18 million Americans aged 16 or older were victims of identity theft in 2014, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics—7.0 percent of the population aged 16 or older and similar to the 6.7 percent who reported being victimized in 2012. Sixty-five percent of identity theft victims in 2014 experienced a financial loss, with a median loss of $300.

Identity theft is defined as the misuse of an existing account such as a credit card or online account (86 percent of incidents in 2014), the unauthorized use of personal information to open a new account (4 percent), or the misuse of personal information for fraudulent purposes such as getting medical care, housing, a job, or other benefits (3 percent). The remaining incidents involved multiple types of theft.

Only 8 percent of identity theft victims reported the incident to the police, but 87 percent reported the incident to a credit card company or bank.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Victims of Identity Theft, 2014

What Do Women Want?

Among women with children under age 18, the majority would prefer to stay at home and take care of house and family instead of having a job outside the home...

Women with children under age 18
Prefer to work outside home: 39%
Prefer homemaker role: 56%

Among women without children under age 18 at home, however, preferences are reversed...

Women without children under age 18
Prefer to work outside home: 58%
Prefer homemaker role: 39%

Source: Gallup, Children a Key Factor in Women's Desire to Work Outside the Home

The Marriage Market for 25-to-34-Year-Olds

Is there a shortage of marriageable men in the 25-to-34 age group? That's the question posed by Isabel Sawhill and Joanna Venator of the Brookings Institution, and their answer is yes, sort of, depending on how "marriageable" is defined.

At first glance, there doesn't seem to be a problem. There are 126 single men for every 100 single women in the 25-to-34 age group. But there are only 91 employed men per 100 women. Among college graduates, the number drops to just 85 employed men per 100 women because women in the age group are better educated than men. The researchers conclude: "Among the college educated, there is a shortage that is likely to discourage marriage unless women are more willing to 'marry down' or men catch up to women in terms of education."

Source: Brookings Institution, Is There a Shortage of Marriageable Men?

White Population Is Growing in Big Cities

In a reversal of past trends, the white population is growing in the nation's largest cities, according to an analysis of the American Community Survey by William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution. Between 2010 and 2014, reports Frey, the white population in the 50 largest cities grew by 491,494. Between 2000 and 2010, whites declined by 592,228.

White gains were greatest in two age groups: 25-to-34-year-olds and 55-to-74-year-olds. "Some of these gains are certainly related to the recent uptick in the attractiveness of cities to young adults and retirees," says Frey. But, he cautions, "city revival could be short-lived and related to the plight of struggling millennials."

Source: Brookings Institution, More Big Cities Are Gaining White Population, Census Data Show

Mining Big Data for Transgender Information

It's not easy to uncover information about the nation's transgender population. The Census Bureau does not include questions about sexual orientation or gender identity in the decennial census or American Community Survey. But there are other ways to shed light on the transgender segment—such as mining big data.

An economist at the Census Bureau, Benjamin Cerf Harris, has done just that. Harris mined the Social Security Administration's big data to determine whether transgender information could be gleaned from SSA records. By sifting through millions of Social Security files from 1936 to 2010, Harris located those in which a first name had been legally changed from male to female or female to male and also located those in which the sex-coding had changed. He found tens of thousands of transgender-consistent changes: 106,550 cases (at a 95 percent confidence threshold) in which a person aged 16 or older had legally changed his or her first name from one gender to another, and 28,234 cases in which there had been a first-name change and a sex-coding change. Overall, about 0.2 percent of files are what Harris calls "transgender consistent." The average age of identity change was mid-thirties.

The mining effort didn't stop there. For the transgender-consistent individuals who were still alive in 2010, Harris matched them to their census record and examined their response to the 2010 census question, "What is your sex?" He finds the transgender-consistents were more likely than non-transgender respondents to report being male and female (0.13 percent vs. 0.02 percent) or to report no sex at all (1.85 percent versus 1.13 percent). Harris also used 2010 census records to determine the geographical distribution of the likely transgender population.

Harris cautions that his research is not an attempt to estimate the size of the transgender population. Rather, it is an effort to show how big data can be mined to reveal something about the transgender population.

Source: Census Bureau, Likely Transgender Individuals in U.S. Federal Administrative Records and the 2010 Census

Household Income Rises in August 2015

Good news: Median household income in August 2015 reached a post-Great Recession high. August's median stood at $55,794, according to Sentier Research—1.1 percent higher than in July 2015, after adjusting for inflation. The August 2015 median was 5.0 percent higher than the August 2014 median and 7.6 percent above the $51,835 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"The 1.1 percent increase in median household income between July and August 2015 is one of the largest month-to-month increases in income during the post-recessionary period," says Sentier's Gordon Green. We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009, when the Great Recession ended." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in August 2015 was not significantly different (finally!) from the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was still 1.5 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 2.7 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for August 2015 was 97.3 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: August 2015

Was College Worth the Cost?

Percentage of college graduates who "strongly agree" that their college education was worth the cost, by type of institution...

Total graduates: 50%
Public universities: 52%
Private, nonprofit universities: 47%
Private, for-profit universities: 26%

Source: Gallup, Recent Grads Less Likely to Agree College Was Worth the Cost

Households with Children, 2014

Only 28 percent of the nation's households include children under age 18. The figure varies by race and Hispanic origin of householder...

Households with children by race/Hispanic origin of householder
25% of non-Hispanic White households
31% of Black households
36% of Asian households
43% of Hispanic households

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements: 2014

39 Million Americans Speak Spanish at Home

Sixty-three million people speak a language other than English at home—fully 21 percent of the population aged 5 or older, according to the 2014 American Community Survey. Of those who speak a language other than English at home, the 62 percent majority speak Spanish. Here are the non-English languages with at least 1 million home speakers...

Language other than English spoken at home (and % who speak English less than "very well")
Spanish: 39.3 million (42%)
Chinese: 3.1 million (56%)
Tagalog: 1.7 million (31%)
Vietnamese: 1.5 million (59%)
French: 1.2 million (20%)
Korean: 1.1 million (55%)
Arabic: 1.1 million (38%)

Source: Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey

Immigration What Ifs

Nearly 59 million immigrants moved to the United States between 1965 and 2015, according to a Pew Research Center report. If those immigrants had not come here, the nation would be far less diverse. Pew calculated the racial and ethnic mix of the nation if immigration had been zero during the past fifty years...

• Non-Hispanic Whites would be 75% of population rather than the 62% of 2015 
• Hispanics would be 8% of population rather than the 18% of 2015 
• Asians would be less than 1% of the population rather than the 6% of 2015

During the next 50 years, continuing immigration will reduce the non-Hispanic White share of the population to 46 percent by 2065, projects Pew. The Hispanic share will grow to 24 percent. The Asian share will rise to 14 percent. By 2065, Asians will be a larger share of the population than Blacks (13 percent).

Source: Pew Research Center, Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S., Driving Population Growth and Change Through 2065

Do Americans Know How Much They Owe?

Americans are not dummies about debt. When researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York compared self-reported household debt in the Survey of Consumer Finances with debt reported by lenders to Equifax, the totals pretty much matched—with two exceptions: credit card debt and student loans.

Credit card debt was under-reported by 37 percent, according to the analysis, and student loans by 25 percent. While there may be methodological reasons for the lowballing of these debts in the Survey of Consumer Finances, it also may be that Americans are less knowledgeable about their credit cards and student loans than other types of debt.

"The poorer repayment rates we observe for uncollateralized debts may suggest an association between debt awareness and debt repayment quality," the researchers conclude.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, Do We Know What We Owe? Consumer Debt as Reported by Borrowers and Lenders

Living Alone Is #1 Household Type

The number of people who live alone has surpassed the number of married couples without children at home, making lone living the most common household type in the United States...

Percent distribution of households by type in 2015
28.0%: people who live alone
27.6%: married couples without children under age 18 at home
20.5%: married couples with children under age 18 at home
12.5%: female-headed families
  6.4%: unrelated people living together
  4.9%: male-headed families

Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

Women Surpass Men in Educational Attainment

The educational attainment of American women surpasses that of American men, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. In 2015, the percentage of women aged 25 or older with a bachelor's degree or more education climbed to 32.7 percent. Among men, the figure was 32.3 percent. Although the difference is small, it will grow in the years ahead as well educated younger women replace much less educated older women in the population. Here is the percentage of men and women with a bachelor's degree by age group (and the percentage point difference between women and men)...

Aged 25 to 34 (+6.2 percentage points)
Women: 39.2%
Men: 33.0%

Aged 35 to 44 (+5.6 percentage points)
Women: 39.0%
Men: 33.4%

Aged 45 to 54 (+1.8 percentage points)
Women: 34.0%
Men: 32.2%

Aged 55 to 64 (-0.4 percentage points)
Women: 30.7%
Men: 31.1%

Aged 65 or older (-9.3 percentage points)
Women: 22.5%
Men: 31.8%

Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

Households with Children Fall by Nearly 1 Million

The consequences of the ongoing baby bust are readily apparent in the recently released figures from the 2015 Current Population Survey. The number of households with children under age 18 fell by nearly 1 million (965,000) between 2014 and 2015—a substantial 2.4 percent decline.

Numerical (and percent change) in households with children, 2014-15
Total with children: -965,000 (-2.4%)
Married couples: -291,000 (-1.1%)
Female-headed families: -400,000 (-3.8%)
Male-headed families: -274,000 (-8.3%)

Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

What Poverty Does to Children

The latest numbers from the Current Population Survey show that 21 percent of children under age 18 were poor in 2014. Even worse, nearly twice as many—39 percent—live in poverty for a period of time before they turn 18. This matters because children who have ever been poor are less likely to succeed than those who have never been poor, according to the Urban Institute.

In a study of Americans born between 1968 and 1989, those who had ever experienced poverty before the age of 18 were less likely than those who had never experienced poverty to graduate from high school, enroll in college, and earn a college degree. While 70 percent of the never-poor were consistently employed between the ages of 25 and 30, the figure was only 57 percent among the ever-poor. Twenty-four percent of the ever-poor had been arrested by age 20 compared with 16 percent of the never-poor.

Source: Urban Institute, Child Poverty and Adult Success

Households by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2015

Overall household growth was sluggish between 2014 and 2015, but that's because the number of non-Hispanic White households fell by more than 200,000—an 0.2 percent decline. In contrast, the number of households headed by Blacks (alone or in combination) grew 2.8 percent, as did the number headed by Asians (alone or in combination). Hispanic households increased just 0.9 percent. Here is the number (and percent distribution) of households in 2015 by race and Hispanic origin...

Households in 2015 by race and Hispanic origin
Total: 124,587,000 (100.0%)
Asian: 6,333,000 (5.1%)
Black: 17,198,000 (13.8%)
Hispanic: 16,239,000 (13.0%)
Non-Hispanic White: 84,228,000 (67.6%)

Note: Numbers do not add to total because Asians and Blacks are those who identify themselves as being of the race alone or in combination. Hispanics may be of any race.
Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

Sluggish Household Growth 2014-15

The number of households in the United States grew by just 0.53 percent between 2014 and 2015—from 123.9 million to 124.6 million, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. This is the fifth slowest rate of growth in more than five decades of keeping score. One factor behind the sluggish growth was the 4.2 percent decline in the number of households headed by the youngest adults. Here is the numerical (and percent) change in households by age of householder...

Change in households, 2014 to 2015 (numbers in 000s)
Total households:  656 ( 0.5%)
Under age 25:      -282 (-4.2%)
Aged 25 to 34:        87 ( 0.4%)
Aged 35 to 44:       -43 (-0.2%)
Aged 45 to 54:       -98 (-0.4%)
Aged 55 to 64:      114 ( 0.5%)
Aged 65-plus:       877 ( 3.0%)

The decline in households headed by people aged 35 to 54 is due to the small Generation X moving into those age groups. The increase in households headed by people aged 55 or older is due to the large Baby-Boom generation in those age groups. 

Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

Median Household Income in 2014

Median household income in 2014 was unchanged from 2013, according to the latest release of Current Population Survey income data. This seemingly ho-hum finding is in fact interesting news, revealing how stuck we are in the economic backwash of the Great Recession. The $53,657 median household income of 2014 was not statistically different from the $54,462 median of 2013, the Census Bureau reports. This is the third consecutive year of no statistically significant change in median household income following two years of decline. 

Because the Census Bureau changed the way it asks about income in the Current Population Survey, the 2014 numbers are not comparable with figures prior to 2013 (when respondents were split into two samples for comparative purposes, with one sample asked the new questions and the other the traditional questions). A comparison of 2013 data from the two samples reveals how much better the new questions capture IRA and 401(k) withdrawals, boosting the 2013 estimate of median household income by 3.2 percent.  

One factor that may be suppressing median household income is the aging of the population as millions of boomers retire and live on reduced incomes. But the Census Bureau reports no statistically significant change in median household income for any age group between 2013 and 2014. Here are the 2014 numbers...

Median household income by age in 2014
Under age 25: $34,605
Aged 25 to 34: $54,243
Aged 35 to 44: $66,693
Aged 45 to 54: $70,832
Aged 55 to 64: $60,580
Aged 65-plus: $36,895

Source: Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014

Inheritance and Retirement Risk

How much do inheritances contribute to retirement readiness? That's the question asked by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR). The answer is not much.

Researchers at the Center for Retirement Research analyzed the impact of inheritances on the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) using inheritance data from the Federal Reserve's 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances. The NRRI is a measure of the percentage of households at risk of missing their target retirement income replacement rate. In 2013, the NRRI was 51.6—meaning 51.6 percent of working-age households are at risk at age 65 of being unable to maintain pre-retirement spending after retirement. If inheritances were eliminated, the percentage at risk rises by only 0.8 percentage points—to 52.4 percent.

Why do inheritances have such a small impact on retirement readiness? One reason is that few households receive an inheritance—only 19 percent had ever received an inheritance, according to the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances. Another reason is that most inheritances are modest. Among householders aged 30 to 59 who had received an inheritance, the median value was just $87,500 (including the value of inherited houses). Finally, inheritances don't have much of an impact because those who receive them are already better prepared for retirement (risk index of 40.4) than those who do not (risk index of 54.2). Among households receiving an inheritance, eliminating the windfall boosts their risk of running out of money from 40.4 to 44.8 percent—still well below average.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, How Do Inheritances Affect the National Retirement Risk Index?

Household Income Stable in July 2015

The Census Bureau will release 2014 household income statistics on September 16. Thanks to the efforts of Sentier Research, however, we already know how the median household is doing through July 2015. And the answer is: the median household is doing better than in the aftermath of the Great Recession, but still has some catching up to do.

According to Sentier's monthly tracking of the Current Population Survey, median household income in July 2015 was $55,218. This figure was not statistically different from the June median, after adjusting for inflation. The July 2015 median was 2.0 percent higher than the July 2014 median, however, and 6.5 percent above the $51,872 median of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series.

But median household income in July 2015 was still 0.8 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 2.6 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 3.8 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for July 2015 was 96.2 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: July 2015

ACA = Fewer Abortions

Expect 25,000 fewer abortions per year because of the contraceptive mandate in the Affordable Care Act, according to a study by Karen Mulligan in the journal Demography. 

Although 30 states had already mandated contraceptive coverage in health insurance plans, 20 states were straggling until the ACA kicked in. By extending access to contraception without co-pay to women in all 50 states, according to Mulligan's analysis, birth control use increases by 2.1 percent and the abortion rate declines by 3 percent. The result is fewer abortions.

Source: Demography, Contraceptive Use, Abortions, and Births: The Effect of Insurance Mandates ($39.95)

Spending by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2014

The average household spent $53,495 in 2014—3 percent more than in 2013, after adjusting for inflation. Despite the increase, average household spending was still 5.9 percent below the $56,833 of 2006, the year household spending peaked. Every race and Hispanic origin group spent more in 2014 than in 2013, but less than in 2006. Here is average household spending in 2014 by race and Hispanic origin of householder and the percent change in spending between 2013-14 and 2006-14 (in 2014 dollars)...  

Asian: $62,784
2013-14: +4.3%
2006-14: -7.1% 

Black: $38,543
2013-14: +2.3%
2006-14: -5.1% 

Hispanic: $45,561
2013-14: +6.9%
2006-14: -9.9%

Non-Hispanic White: $57,403
2013-14: +2.8%
2006-14: -4.8%     

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Spending by Age in 2014

The average household spent $53,495 in 2014—3 percent more than in 2013, after adjusting for inflation. Despite the increase, spending was still 5.9 percent below the $56,833 of 2006, the year household spending peaked. Most age groups spent more in 2014 than in 2013, but only households headed by people aged 65 or older spent more in 2014 than their counterparts did in 2006. Here is average household spending by age of householder in 2014 and the percent change in spending between 2013-14 and 2006-14 (in 2014 dollars)...  

Under age 25: $32,179
2013-14: +4.3%
2006-14: -2.8% 

Aged 25 to 34: $49,547
2013-14: +1.4%
2006-14: -11.3% 

Aged 35 to 44: $62,512
2013-14: +4.6%
2006-14: -7.4%

Aged 45 to 54: $65,651
2013-14: +6.7%
2006-14: -2.9%

Aged 55 to 64: $56,267
2013-14: -0.9%
2006-14: -5.7%

Aged 65 or older: $43,635
2013-14: +3.7%
2006-14: +6.0%    

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

What's Holding Down Wages? Maybe The Lower Rate of Job-to-Job Transitions

Although the unemployment rate has fallen by nearly 5 percentage points since the Great Recession, wages have not grown much. One reason for sluggish wage growth, according to an analysis appearing in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics blog, is the low rate of job-to-job transitions—workers who leave one job and immediately take another without experiencing a spell of nonemployment. Job-to-job transition workers typically are moving up the job ladder, finding new jobs with higher pay. Unfortunately, the job-to-job transition rate has yet to recover from the Great Recession.

Using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, economists from the New York Fed analyzed changes in the wages of job-to-job transition workers and workers who experienced a period of nonemployment before their current job...

Job-to-job transition workers
Current wage: $27.28
Starting wage at current job: $20.09
Ending wage at previous job: $18.79

Period of nonemployment workers
Current wage: $18.31
Starting wage at current job: $14.61
Ending wage at previous job: $17.92

Although both types of workers had similar wages at the end of their previous job, the job-to-job transition workers had a higher starting wage at their current job and a much higher current wage. Because of the lower rate of job-to-job transitions, conclude the researchers, fewer workers are moving up the job ladder. That may be suppressing wage growth.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Searching for Higher Wages