What Do Demographers Want?

They want to play with numbers. When demographers were asked in a recent survey what they enjoy most about their profession, the largest share and 59 percent majority said they enjoy data analysis more than any other professional activity. "Indeed, the intrinsic joy of collecting and analyzing data is high on the scorecard of demographers," according to Hendrik P. van Dalen and Kene Henkens in their paper, "What Is on a Demographers' Mind? A Worldwide Survey," published in the journal Demographic Research.

The authors know what demographers want because they asked them. They surveyed 970 demographers worldwide in 2009 about a range of topics. Interestingly, the paper includes a comparison of the academic values of PhD students in demography with the values of their counterparts in economics, finding the two groups to be "complete antipodes." When asked what factors are most important for success in their field, 74 percent of demographers (but only 30 percent of economists) cite "being good at empirical research." Fully 64 percent of demographers (but only 9 percent of economists) say "knowing population or economic facts." The majority of PhD students in economics say knowing the facts is unimportant. To most PhD students in economics, the key to success is "being good at solving mathematical puzzles."

Economists may be good at solving puzzles, but not real world problems. Yet they still have the ear of the nation's policymakers. Perhaps because demographers so rarely lift their heads out of their sandbox of statistics, economists get all the attention. For demography to assume its proper role as a science, says demographer Dominique Tabutin (cited in the survey paper), it must strengthen its identity, its social and political utility, and its public visibility.

Brace Yourself

Let's connect the dots between unemployment, retirement, and the future of consumer spending.

Unemployment In April, the unemployment rate fell slightly (to 8.1 percent), despite weak job growth (a gain of 115,000 jobs). Unemployment fell because hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force.

Retirement The labor force is shrinking in part because the large baby-boom generation is beginning to retire en masse. As noted previously in this blog, 45 percent of the oldest boomers (who turned 65 in 2011) are fully retired, according to a MetLife study. Yes, boomers say they are going to postpone retirement, but not for long according to a University of Michigan study. The Michigan study examined how the Great Recession affected the retirement plans of Americans aged 50 or older. The results show that the average household headed by an older American lost 5 percent of its wealth between 2008 and 2009. This should result in an additional 3.7 to 5.0 additional years of work to make up for the loss. Instead, those postponing retirement are planning to work only for an additional 1.6 years, live on less, and leave less for their heirs.

Spending The baby-boom's retirement will dampen consumer spending for years to come and will reduce the wealth of younger generations, who will inherit less.

Letting the Old Decide

Percentage of Americans who are registered to vote and say they definitely will vote in the 2012 presidential election:

Aged 18 to 29: 34%
Aged 65 or older: 79%

Source: Gallup, Young Voters Back Obama, but Many Aren't Poised to Vote

Entrepreneurship Declines

This isn't rocket science. In a nation that seems hell bent on making it difficult if not impossible for individuals to buy health insurance, entrepreneurship is nearly extinct.

According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity, only 0.32 percent of adults started a business in 2011, down 5.9 percent from the level of 2010. Demographically speaking, the entrepreneurs of today have nothing left to lose. By educational level, high school dropouts are most likely to start a business. Least likely: college graduates.

Source: Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity

How Many Have Pre-Existing Conditions?

Most of us. Depending on how pre-existing conditions are defined, as many as 122 million adults aged 19 to 64 have a health condition that can limit their access to the private health insurance market, according to a GAO report. That's 66 percent of the working-age population.

Today, in most states, private health insurers can deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions. The Affordable Care Act will eliminate this problem beginning in 2014 by requiring health insurance companies to cover everyone regardless of health status. Only five states now offer this kind of protection to their residents: Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Everywhere else, you're on your own.

Who is most at risk in this Wild West health insurance saloon? All of us. Among people aged 19 to 64, the GAO reports that pre-existing conditions can be found in as many as...

• 72% of women
• 59% of men
• 84% of 55-to-64-year-olds, 74% of 45-to-54-year-olds, 65% of 35-to-44-year-olds, 55% of 25-to-34-year-olds, and 45% of 19-to-24-year-olds
• 72% of non-Hispanic whites, 59% of blacks, and 51% of Hispanics 

Source: GAO, Private Health Insurance: Estimates of Individuals with Pre-Existing Conditions Range from 36 million to 122 million

Working Parents

Percentage of married couples with children under age 18 by employment status of parents...

Both parents employed: 58%
Father only employed: 30%
Mother only employed: 7%
Neither parent employed: 4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families, 2011

Household Income Stable in March

Median household income was about the same in March 2012 as in the previous month, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The March median of $50,612 was 0.3 percent higher than the February 2012 median ($50,445), after adjusting for inflation. The change  was not statistically significant.  

The March median was 5.4 percent lower than median household income in June 2009--the supposed end of the Great Recession. It was 7.8 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 8.7 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for March 2012 was 91.3 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: March 2012 

Health Insurance: Workers Aged 18 to 64

Among all wage-and-salary workers aged 18 to 64 in 2010, three out of four (77 percent) worked for an employer who sponsored a health insurance plan. Here are the percentages of workers whose employer sponsors a plan by age...

Aged 18-20: 48%
Aged 21-24: 61%
Aged 25-34: 76%
Aged 35-44: 79%
Aged 45-54: 83%
Aged 55-64: 84%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute,  Employment-Based Health Benefits: Trends in Access and Coverage, 1997-2010

First Quarter 2012 Homeownership Rates

Overall, 65.1 percent of households owned their home in the 1st quarter of 2012, according to the Census Bureau. The homeownership rate fell 1 percentage point between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012. Here are the important findings from today's 1st quarter 2012 data release...

• Over the past year, the homeownership rate fell in all but one age group, and the increase among 70-to-74-year-olds was within the margin of error. 
• The biggest homeownership rate decline over the past four quarters has been among householders aged 35 to 39, their homeownership rate falling by 4.4 percentage points to 56.4 percent.
• Fewer than half of householders aged 30 to 34 are homeowners (48.3 percent, down from an annual high of 57.4 percent in 2004), and their sharply lower homeownership rate is being carried into the next older age group as they enter their late thirties.
• The only good news for the housing industry is the apparent stability in the homeownership rate of householders aged 25 to 29. At 34.2 percent in the 1st quarter of 2012, the homeownership rate of this age group has barely budged for the past three quarters. Historically (with data going back to 1982), the annual homeownership rate 25-to-29-year-olds bottomed out at 33.6 percent in 1992 and 1993 and peaked at 41.8 percent in 2006.  

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter, 2012

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2012: 48.3%

The 1st quarter homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 was 48.3 percent, well below the 50 percent threshold and 2 percentage points lower than a year earlier. This matters because the homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group is the bellwether for the housing industry. Typically, the majority of householders become homeowners in their early thirties. That may no longer be the case as young adults either can't afford or do not want to buy a home until housing prices bottom out and job security improves. In 2011, the annual homeownership rate of the age group fell below 50 percent (to 48.9 percent) for the first time in the data series, which dates back to 1982.

Another ominous sign: the steepest decline in homeownership has shifted upwards from the 30-to-34 age group to the 35-to-39 age group. This shift is occurring as younger adults who have hesitated to buy homes enter the next older age group. The homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39 fell by 4.4 percentage points between the first quarter of 2011 (60.8 percent) and the first quarter of 2012 (56.4 percent).

See previous First-Time Homebuyer posts here, here, here, and here

Source: Bureau of the Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Demographics of the Sleep Deprived

Thirty percent of American workers regularly sleep for 6 or fewer hours per 24-hour period, according to the CDC. The percentage is highest among night shift workers (44 percent), workers aged 30 to 64 (32 percent), blacks (39 percent), the divorced/separated/widowed (36 percent), those with more than one job (37 percent), and those who work more than 40 hours a week (36 percent).

Source: CDC, Short Sleep Duration among Workers -- United States, 2010

Your Life in Sports

Average age of males participating in selected sports...

Skateboarding: 17.1 

Basketball: 23.9

Running: 29.4

Bicycling: 30.6

Working out at club: 39.1

Golfing: 40.6

Exercise walking: 46.0

Source: National Sporting Goods Association, 2002-2010 Participation by Mean Age - Male & Female

Retirement: Expecting the Worst

Only 38 percent of Americans who are not yet retired expect to have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, according to a Gallup poll. Fully 55 percent say they will not have enough for a comfortable retirement.

Source: Gallup, Expected Retirement Age in U.S. Up to 67

Many More Young Asians and Blacks

After months of dribbling out, state-by-state, detailed race data from the 2010 census, the Census Bureau finally gave it up today with a monumental release of Summary File 2 tables. What a difference they make in our understanding of the Asian and black populations.

31 Percent More Young Asians
The 2010 census counted 15 million people who identify themselves as Asian alone. But there are 17 million people who identify themselves as Asian alone or Asian in combination with other races. And not until today did we know the age distribution of those additional 2 million people. Here's why that's important: the 54 percent majority of the additional Asians are under age 20 because so many parents identified their children as multiracial. By including multiracial Asians in the mix, the number of Asians under age 20 expands by 31 percent!

11 Percent More Young Blacks
The black population also expands enormously when multiracial blacks are added to the mix. The black alone population numbered 40 million in 2010. The black alone or black in combination population numbered 42 million. Seventy-nine percent of the additional blacks are under age 20. By including multiracial blacks in the mix, the number of blacks under age 20 grows by 11 percent.

For marketers, these differences are huge.

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, American Factfinder

Homes Worth Less

Only 53 percent of homeowners say their home is worth more today than when they bought it, down from 92 percent in 2006.

Source: Gallup, U.S. Homeownership Hits Decade Low

Living Arrangements of Young Adults

Everyone is wondering what the nation's young adults are up to as many postpone marriage, delay parenthood, and move back in with their parents. The Census Bureau has answers based on 2010 census findings. According to the census, 39 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds are heading their own households or are the spouse of the householder. Another 33 percent are the biological son or daughter of the householder. More than one in four 18-to-29-year-olds has some other relationship to the householder. Here are the living arrangements of the age group...

Total 18-to-29-year-olds
Householder or spouse: 39.1%
Biological son or daughter of householder: 33.4%
Other relationship to householder: 27.5%

Other relationship details
Housemate or roommate: 6.6%
Unmarried partner: 5.5%
Brother or sister: 2.3%
Grandchild: 2.3%
Stepson or stepdaughter: 2.3%
Son-in-law or daughter-in-law: 1.2%
Roomer or boarder: 1.2%
Adopted son or daughter: 0.8%
Other relative of householder: 2.6%
Other nonrelative of householder: 2.5%

Source: Census Bureau, Households and Families: 2010, 2010 Census Brief

2010 Census: Households and Families

Today the Census Bureau released the 2010 Census Brief on the nation's 116.7 million households. These are some of the most important findings...

• Married couples account for fewer than half of households (48 percent).
• The number of nuclear families (married couples with children under age 18) fell by 1.2 million between 2000 and 2010, to 23.6 million households (20 percent of total households).
• People living alone are a larger share of households (27 percent) than nuclear families. They are the second most common household type after married couples without children under age 18 (28 percent).
• Average household size fell slightly, from 2.59 people in 2000 to 2.58 people in 2010.
• Unmarried partner households grew by 41 percent to 7.7 million (7 percent of total households). Of these, 646,000 are same-sex unmarried partners.
• Ten percent of married couples have partners of a different race or Hispanic origin.  
• Multigenerational households (defined as households with three or more generations of relatives) grew from 3.9 million to 5.1 million between 2000 and 2010 and account for 4 percent of households.

Source: Census Bureau, Households and Families: 2010, 2010 Census Brief

Why Doesn't Everyone Go To College?

Because of the risk of making less than a high school graduate after a lifetime of work. That is the finding of a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The risk is this: not everyone who starts college gets a degree. In fact, a large proportion of those who start school eventually drop out--as many as 50 percent of those who enroll at a four-year public college drop out before getting a degree, notes the study. For dropouts with $50,000 in student loans, their lifetime earnings will not surpass those of a high school graduate until well beyond retirement.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, College Degrees: Why Aren't More People Making the Investment?

Not So Green

Percentage of Americans who say the following statements describe them very well or completely...

I am concerned about the planet we are leaving behind for future generations: 34%
I am environmentally conscious: 27%
I am green: 17% 

Source: Harris Interactive, Fewer Americans "Thinking Green"

Career Women

Percentage of 18-to-34-year-olds who say "being successful in a high-paying career or profession" is very important or one of the most important things in their life...

Men: 59%
Women: 66%

Source: Pew Research Center, A Gender Reversal on Career Aspirations

The Problem with High Ceilings

Houses are larger than they used to be and this is a long-term problem for energy consumption, says the Energy Information Administration in a new report. Homes built in the 1970s and 1980s averaged less than 1,800 square feet. Homes built in the 2000s averaged 2,465 square feet.

"Square footage typically stays fixed over the life of a home and it is a characteristic that is expensive, even impractical to alter to reduce energy consumption," notes the EIA in its report.

Even worse for energy consumption are the high ceilings in many newly built homes. The percentage of new homes with ceilings higher than the traditional 8 feet grew from 17 percent in the 1970s to the 52 percent majority in the 2000s.

Source: Energy Information Administration, The Impact of Increasing Home Size on Energy Demand

Young Adults Looking for Work

Among young adults who graduated from high school in 2011, more than one in four (26.7 percent) are looking for a job. This stunningly high unemployment rate reveals the struggle to earn a living among the nation's youngest workers. Here are the unemployment rates for 2011 high school graduates by characteristic...

Enrolled in 2-year college: 23.7%
Enrolled in 4-year college: 18.6%
Not enrolled in college: 33.6%

Among 2010-11 high school dropouts, the unemployment rate is 38.4 percent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Enrollment and Work Activity of High School Graduates

College Enrollment Rates: 2011

The college enrollment rate of recent high school graduates is down slightly from the all-time high of 70.1 percent set in 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among 2011 high school graduates, 68.3 percent were enrolled in college by October of that year. Sixty-two percent of those enrolled in college were attending a four-year school and 38 percent were at a two-year institution. Here are 2011 college enrollment rates by sex, race, and Hispanic origin...

Men: 64.6%
Women: 72.3%

Asian: 86.7%
Black: 67.5%
Hispanic: 66.6%
White: 67.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Enrollment and Work Activity of High School Graduates

An Average Day: Men at Work

The Great Recession idled millions of men (and women). The American Time Use Survey collects information on what the average American did yesterday. The results show that fewer men are going to work. Here are the percentages of men who worked on an average day in 2010 and 2007, by age...

			% point
	2010	2007	change
15-19	13.8	27.8	-14.0
20-24	41.7	55.5	-13.8
25-34	63.8	68.9	-5.1
35-44	61.4	65.7	-4.3
45-54	58.9	63.9	-5.0
55-64	49.9	47.2	2.7
65+	14.3	15.2	-0.9

Note: An average day includes both weekdays and weekends.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2007 and 2010 American Time Use Surveys

Homeowners with a Mortgage

The nation's 49 million homeowners with a mortgage outnumber homeowners without a mortgage (30 million) and renters (42 million). Their incomes and spending are higher than average. Here are some of the characteristics of the average homeowner with a mortgage...

Average annual...
Household income: $88,962
Household spending: $63,235

Average number of...
People per household: 2.9
Vehicles per household: 2.5
Earners per household: 1.6

Average annual spending on...
Federal income tax: $1,939
Health insurance (out-of-pocket): $2,071
Gasoline: $2,764
Property taxes: $3,008
Eating out: $3,135
Entertainment: $3,423
Mortgage interest: $8,031

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Helicopter Parents = Less Sex

Birth rates for teenagers are at an historic low, as this blog reported previously. One factor behind the decline is the fact that teens today are less likely to be sexually experienced. The percentage of 18-to-19-year-old men who have ever had sexual intercourse fell from 77 percent in 1988 to 64 percent in 2006-10. Among their female counterparts, the figure fell from 73 to 63 percent during those years.

Is this yet another example of how helicopter parenting is changing the lives of young adults? For other examples, see my posts on the decline in crime and the decline in accidental deaths among children.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth

Who Spends More on Movie Tickets?

Average annual household spending on movie, theater, and amusement park tickets...

Householders under age 25: $79.15
Householders aged 65 to 74: $93.10

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure Survey

No Credit Cards

More than one in four Americans aged 18 or older does not have a credit card, according to a survey by AARP. Younger adults are more than twice as likely to be without credit cards than adults aged 50 or older. Here are the percentages who do not have a credit card by age...

Total adults: 26%
Aged 18-49: 34%
Aged 50-plus: 16%

Source: AARP Bulletin Survey on Budgeting and Credit Card Use

Helicopter Parents: More Evidence They Work

First there was the puzzling plunge in the crime rate. Now there is an equally puzzling plunge in the death rate among children due to accidents. Accidents are the leading cause of death for people under age 20.

The CDC reports that the number of deaths caused by accidents (the CDC calls it unintentional injuries) among people aged 0 to 19  fell from 12,441 in 2000 to 9,143 in 2009. The death rate fell from 15.5 to 11.0 deaths per 100,000 population during those years--a 29 percent decline. Deaths rates were down sharply for most types of accidents ranging from motor vehicle deaths (whether passenger, pedestrian, or bicycle in the wrong place), to drowning, fire, and falling. Accidental death rates were up for only two causes of death--suffocation among infants and poisoning (due to the increase in prescription drug use).

What's behind the decline? My theory: helicopter parents. Those obnoxious, indulgent, and overly involved parents are keeping their children safe and out of trouble.

Source: CDC, Vital Signs: Unintentional Injury Deaths among Persons Aged 0-19 Years -- United States, 2000-2009, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

Non-Hispanic White Preschoolers

Percentage of children under age 5 who are non-Hispanic white: 50.8%.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Timing of First Birth

Percent distribution of first births to women aged 15 to 44 by timing of birth in relation to first marriage...

Woman has never married: 22%
Woman gave birth before marriage: 22%
Women gave birth 0 to 7 months after marriage: 9%
Woman gave birth 8 or more months after marriage: 46%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15-44 Years in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2006-2010

Why the Decline in Interstate Migration?

Another demographic mystery may have been solved. That mystery is the decline in interstate migration, a decline that started well before the record low migration rates of the Great Recession years.

Two decades ago in the early 1990s, about 3 percent of Americans moved between states each year, say researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Today, only about half that many move across state lines. To determine why interstate migration has fallen so dramatically, the researchers rule out a number of possible factors including the aging of the population and the increase in dual-income couples. But their analysis uncovers two other factors that may explain the decline:

"The first explanation is that better information--due to both information technology and falling travel costs--has made locations less of an experience good, reducing the need for young people to experiment with living in different places," say the researchers.

"The second explanation is that labor markets around the country have become more similar in the returns they offer to particular skills, so workers need not move to a particular place to maximize the return on their idiosyncratic abilities," they conclude.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration, Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Working Paper 697, April 2012

Smartphones by Race and Hispanic Origin

Overall, 46 percent of adults aged 18 or older own a smartphone, according to a February 2012 survey. Here are the percentages by race and Hispanic origin...

Black: 49%
Hispanic: 49%
Non-Hispanic white: 45%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, Digital Differences

Child On Board

Among Americans aged 15 to 44, most women (56 percent) and 45 percent of men have had a biological child. Here are the percentages by age...

	women	men
15-19	6.7	2.6
20-24	29.7	15.3
25-29	54.9	42.4
30-34	76.7	61.6
35-39	82.9	73.7
40-44	84.6	76.4

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15-44 Years in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2006-2010

Childless by Choice

How many women choose to remain childless? Not many, according to a new report from the National Survey of Family Growth. Among all women aged 15 to 44, the 57 percent majority has had children and 43 percent are still childless. Among the childless, 81 percent intend to have children one day, 14 percent plan to remain childless by choice, and 5 percent are childless because they cannot have children.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15-44 Years in the United States: National Survey of FAmily Growth, 2006-2010

Projections of 2012 Voters

Nearly 18 million African Americans will vote in the 2012 presidential election, according to projections produced by Demo Memo Blog. A substantial one in eight voters will be black.

Hispanics will cast 11.6 million votes. The Hispanic vote will be smaller than the black vote because there are fewer Hispanic than black citizens and because Hispanics are much less likely than blacks to vote. Among citizens, only 49.9 percent of Hispanics voted in 2008 compared with 64.7 percent of blacks.

Non-Hispanic whites overwhelm most elections and 2012 will be no exception. Nearly 102 million non-Hispanic whites will vote on election day.

Projections of 2012 Voters by Race and Hispanic Origin
Total voters: 137.1 million (100%)
Non-Hispanic white: 101.7 million (74%)
Black: 17.8 million (13%)
Hispanic: 11.6 million (8%)

Source: Demo Memo Blog, estimates based on 2008-10 population growth rates and 2008 voting rates by race and Hispanic origin

The Need for Old Buildings

Character is key to economically vibrant cities, reports The Atlantic. And what creates character? One necessary feature is old buildings. As urban philosopher Jane Jacobs notes in her masterpiece The Death and Life of Great American Cities:

"Old ideas can sometimes use new buildings. New ideas must use old buildings."

That's because rent is cheap in old, run-down buildings, allowing aspiring entrepreneurs to try out ideas without costly overhead. Cities with old buildings in abundance have opportunities for economic growth that other cities can't match--no matter how much money they spend on new development. As Jacobs explains:

"The economic value of new buildings is replaceable in cities. It is replaceable by the spending of more construction money. But the economic value of old buildings is irreplaceable at will. It is created by time."

Boomer Inheritance

Twenty-three percent of the oldest boomers (born in 1946) have received an inheritance. On average, they inherited $110,000.

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Teen Births Plunge, Really

Fewer babies were born to women aged 15 to 19 in 2010 than in any year since 1946.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Rates for U.S. Teenagers Reach Historic Lows for All Age and Ethnic Groups

$9.2 Trillion in Retirement Accounts

As of the first quarter of 2012, Americans had accumulated $9.2 trillion in their retirement accounts, according to estimates by the Urban Institute. This figure is just 3 percent below the all-time high in retirement savings reached in the third quarter of 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

Does this mean we are out of the woods regarding our prospects for retirement? Not at all. First, consider the demographics. With the large baby-boom generation in the process of retiring now, the value of the nation's retirement accounts should be in the stratosphere. Instead, we're still playing catch-up. Second, most workers have saved little. According to the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey, 60 percent of workers have less than $25,000 in savings.

Legal Immigrants in 2011: 1 Million+

The number of legal immigrants coming to the United States topped 1 million again in 2011, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Last year, 1,062,040 people either arrived in the United States as legal permanent residents or already lived here and became permanent residents. The annual number of legal immigrants to the United States has topped 1 million every year since 2005.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2011

iPhones Reduce Deceptive Advertising

That is the finding from a study of ski resort advertising claims, a study that just happened to coincide with the introduction of a new iPhone app that allowed skiers to share information about snow conditions. What happened next is a lesson for every business.

Typically, ski resorts exaggerate levels of natural snowfall in their advertising--especially on weekends, according to researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Skiers have learned to view these snowfall claims skeptically. Interestingly, while the researchers were conducting the study--which focused on deceptive advertising--a new iPhone app became available that allowed skiers to easily share information about snow conditions in real time. The result: "Exaggeration falls sharply, especially at resorts with better iPhone reception."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Wintertime for Deceptive Advertising?

Religious Americans

The 58 percent majority of Americans say they are moderately or very religious. Here are the percentages by generation...

Millennials: 47%
Gen Xers: 56%
Boomers: 62%
Olders: 73%

Source: 2010 General Social Survey

New Survey of E-Reading

If you worry that reading is on the decline, worry no more. Fully 81 percent of Americans aged 16 or older read a book in the past 12 months, according to a Pew survey. The median number of books read in the past year is 8, and the figure does not vary much by age. It ranges from a low of 6 books a year among 30-to-49-year-olds to a high of 12 books a year among people aged 65 or older.

Print is still the most popular format for reading books. In the past year, 21 percent of adults have read an e-book. On an average day, 84 percent of the nation's book readers read a print book, 15 percent read an e-book, and 4 percent listen to an audiobook.

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, The Rise of E-Reading

Median Duration of Unemployment

The unemployed who found a job in 2011 had been job hunting for a median of 10.0 weeks. This was slightly shorter than the 10.4 weeks of 2010 but more than twice the 4.0 weeks of 2000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Search of the Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment, Monthly Labor Review, March 2012

Metropolitan Population Estimates: 2011

Metropolitan area population estimates for July 1, 2011 are now available from the Census Bureau. These are the first estimates of metropolitan populations since the 2010 census. They show slowing growth in many once rapidly growing many metropolitan areas, according to the bureau. Of the 50 fastest-growing metros between 2000 and 2010, only 24 were on the list in the 2010-11 time period.

That said, there is much inertia in demographic change (which is why demographics are an excellent tool for business planning), and many areas supposedly devastated by the Great Recession and the collapse of the housing bubble are still growing impressively such as Miami (31st in percent growth between 2010 and 2011), Riverside (58th), and Atlanta (61st). Even Las Vegas continues to grow.

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates: Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

Boomer Plans to Move

Percentage of the oldest boomers (who turned 65 in 2011) who plan to move: 16%

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Boomers Retiring Sooner than Planned

The leading edge of the baby-boom generation--people born in 1946--turned 65 in 2011. Wouldn't you like to know what the oldest boomers are doing about retirement?

Now you can: the MetLife Mature Market Institute has been tracking the oldest boomers for years. The latest survey results show that, for boomers who turned 65 in 2011, retirement plans and reality are diverging. The 45 percent plurality of boomers who turned 65 last year are fully retired. Among the retirees, the 51 percent majority say they had to retire earlier than expected.

Source: MetLife Mature Market Institute, Transitioning into Retirement

Hispanic or Latino?

Do Hispanics prefer the term Hispanic or Latino? The answer is...

Prefer Latino: 14%
Prefer Hispanic: 33%
No preference: 51%

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, When Labels Don't Fit: Hispanics and Their Views of Identity

Biggest Strip Show on Earth

Number of persons arrested annually in the United States: 10 million.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

County Health Rankings

Usually, rankings of health status by geography are minimally interesting or useful. That's because demographics, not geographics, determine health. County Health Rankings is different because it lifts the veil on the socioeconomic characteristics that determine health. This interactive site lets you compare the health of counties in a state and see the characteristics that determine their status.

For example, Allendale County ranks worst in health among South Carolina's counties. Residents of Allendale are almost three times more likely than the average American to die prematurely--that is, before age 75. The characteristics of Allendale are those linked to poor health: a low level of education, 25 percent without health insurance, 19 percent unemployed, and every restaurant a fast-food establishment.

Source: University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute, County Health Rankings & Roadmaps

The Inflation Problem

Research has shown that financial know-how peaks in middle age (at an average age of 53, according to one study) and declines as people get older. Most of the research focuses on the vulnerability of aging Americans to financial scams. But there is another perhaps equally serious problem that arises from declining financial sophistication: the apparent inability of many older Americans to understand or account for inflation.

Here is an example from a column published in a local newspaper in my area, written by a retiree with a Ph.D. no less: "If you ordered a beer at Yankee Stadium during the 1949 World Series, it sold for 35 cents. Pretty nice price, by 2012 standards at least."

No, the price isn't nice. Beer is cheaper today than it was in 1949 after adjusting for inflation. Thirty-five cents in 1949 is the same as $3.35 today. You can easily buy a beer at a bar or restaurant for less than $3.35.

The seeming inability of many older Americans to understand and adjust for inflation may play a role in the outsized anger of the gray-haired crowd toward government spending. Without factoring in inflation, everything seems to be getting more expensive, services appear too costly, the wages of workers look excessive. It's not much of a leap from that kind of thinking to, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!" Could blinkered thinking about inflation explain a lot of the crazy--such as the recent vote by the Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee in the nation's oldest state (Florida) to lower the hourly minimum wage for tipped workers from $4.65 to $2.13?

The government's inflation calculator is here. Bookmark it.

Identity Theft

Percentage of Americans aged 18 or older who say they or another household member have been the victim of identity theft in the past 12 months: 10%.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

Grandparents: Last of the Big Spenders

Grandparents are one of the few segments of the population that still has the time, money, and motivation to shop. According to a survey by AARP, they like to shop for their grandchildren.

The majority of grandparents--53 percent--spent at least $250 on grandchildren in the past year. One in four spent at least $1,000, and one in ten spent at least $2,500. Only 4 percent of grandparents did not spend any money on grandchildren. Among the spenders, nearly all bought birthday and holiday gifts for grandchildren. A substantial 53 percent helped their grandchildren with educational expenses. The 55 percent majority of grandparents say the current economy has had no affect on how much they spend on grandchildren. Other facts about grandparents...

• The average grandparent has 6.9 grandchildren (including great-grandchildren) 
• 61% say they do not see grandchildren who live furthest away often enough
• 39% communicate with grandchildren using technology such as email, texting, or Facebook
• 49% have adult grandchildren
• 76% were younger than 60 when their first grandchild was born
• 62% are retired

Source: AARP, Insights and Spending Habits of Modern Grandparents

The Five Youngest Occupations, 2011

The median age of all employed workers in 2011 was 42.1 years. But some workers are much younger than others. Here is the median age of workers in the five occupations with the youngest median age...

21.4 years: Hosts and hostesses, restaurant

21.4 years: Counter attendants, cafeteria and food concession

21.8 years: Lifeguards

23.1 years: Motion picture projectionists

25.2 years: Ushers, lobby attendants, ticket takers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished table from the 2011 Current Population Survey

Household Income Stable in February

Median household income was about the same in February as in January 2012, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. February's $50,065 median was 0.4 percent lower than the January 2012 median ($50,241), after adjusting for inflation. The change  was not statistically significant.  

February's median household income was 5.7 percent lower than the median in June 2009--the supposed end of the Great Recession. It was 8.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 9.0 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for February 2012 was 91.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: February 2012 

Housing Stock: Year Built

Despite the flurry of construction during the housing bubble, the percentage of the nation's 132 million housing units that were built between 2000 and 2010 is only slightly greater than the percentage built during the 1980s and 1990s. Take a look at the distribution of the nation's housing units by the decade they were built...

2000s: 14.8%
1990s: 13.9%
1980s: 14.0%
1970s: 16.0%
1960s: 11.1%
1950s: 10.9%
earlier: 19.2%

Source: Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Part-Time Workers Get No Respect

Percentage of part-time workers with health insurance through their own job: 17%.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Trends in Health Coverage for Part-Time Workers

Most and Least Religious States

There really is a Bible Belt, according to the findings of a Gallup survey on religion.

If you take a look at the states that are most religious, based on how people answer two questions (how important religion is in their lives and how often they attend religious services), they form a belt across the lower portion of the United States stretching from South Carolina to Texas. Gallup nicely provides a map, making it easy to see the belt.

In Mississippi, 59 percent of the population is very religious--more than in any other state. At the other extreme, only 23 percent of the populations of Vermont and New Hampshire are very religious. State differences in religiosity are due to "state culture" more than demographics. Says Gallup: "It appears there is something about the culture and normative structure of a state, no doubt based partly on that state's history, that affects its residents' propensity to attend religious services and to declare that religion is important in their daily lives."

Source: Gallup, Mississippi Is Most Religious U.S. State

Census Bureau Hits and Misses

Following the census, the Census Bureau evaluates its population estimates, comparing its estimates with census counts. Overall, the total population estimate for April 1, 2010, missed the census count by a scant 0.1 percent. The estimate was short by just 259,054 people out of 308,745,538. That's a pretty impressive hit for the estimates program, which uses administrative records of births, deaths, and migration to determine not only the total population, but also the population of states and counties.

By state, the estimates differed from 2010 census counts by less than 1 percent in 33 states. The biggest underestimate was in Hawaii. The 2010 census counted 4.7 percent more people (63,416) in Hawaii than the bureau had estimated. The biggest overestimate was in Arizona. The 2010 census counted 4.1 percent fewer people (262,341) in Arizona than had been estimated.

Source: Census Bureau, Evaluation Estimates

Interest in Cars

How can American businesses be so dumb? Don't they ever pull their head out of their niche to take a look around? Apparently not, which is why so many businesses have allowed their customers to be sweet talked into spending all their money somewhere else.

The latest example: Car manufacturers are bemoaning the fact that young adults have "lost interest" in cars, according to the New York Times. To think that young adults have lost interest in cars is a failure to understand the market. Young adults are spending their money elsewhere not because they have lost interest in cars, but because they have gained interest (payments) on student loans all the while coping with double-digit unemployment rates.

The decline in overall vehicle spending among young adults has been stunning. In 1984 (the earliest data available), householders under age 25 devoted a hefty 24 percent of their expenditures to vehicles and vehicle expenses, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. By 2010, the figure had fallen to 16 percent. Spending by young adults on new cars has collapsed. In 2010, the average householder under age 25 spent only $393 on new cars, down from $1,114 in 1984 after adjusting for inflation.

It is no coincidence that the additional dollars the average young adult has had to devote to education (up by $710 between 1984 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation) is almost identical to the dollars they no longer spend on new cars ($721).

Urban Population Up 12 Percent

Although Americans tend to think of themselves as small town or even rural in character, a look at the Census Bureau's newly released classification of urban and rural populations based on 2010 census data shows how wrong they are.

In 2010, fully 80.7 percent of Americans lived in an urban area. Not only are most Americans urban dwellers, but the urban population is growing faster than the rural population. Between 2000 and 2010, the urban population grew 12.1 percent, more than the 9.7 percent national growth rate and far outpacing the 7.3 percent increase in the rural population.

Many people use the terms urban and metropolitan interchangeably. In fact, urban is a much more precise definition of city life. Metropolitan areas are broad brush, comprised of groups of counties, many of which contain rural areas. In contrast, urban areas are a far higher resolution of lifestyle, comprised of census tracts or blocks that are home to at least 2,500 people. Once the Census Bureau defines urban areas (which it does every 10 years), rural areas are the remainder.

Urban dwellers are less than 50 percent of the population in only four states: Mississippi, West Virginia, Vermont, and Maine. Despite our overwhelming urbanity, many Americans continue to think--and act--rural. That may be because 97 percent of the nation's land area is rural. Only 3 percent is urban. But 249 million Americans now live in that 3 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, 2010 Census Urban and Rural Classification and Urban Area Criteria

The Five Oldest Occupations, 2011

The median age of all employed workers in 2011 was 42.1 years. But some workers are much older than others. Here is the median age of workers in the five occupations with the oldest median age...

59.8 years: Desktop publishers
58.6 years: Embalmers and funeral attendants
57.4 years: Buyers and purchasing agents, farm products
56.0 years: Mine shuttle car operators
55.9 years: Farmers and ranchers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished table from the 2011 Current Population Survey

Unauthorized Immigrants: 11.5 Million

The number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States changed little between 2010 and 2011, according to new estimates by the Department of Homeland Security.

As of January 2011, there were an estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants in the country, about the same as the 11.6 million in January 2010 (this figure has been revised upward from 10.8 million based on 2010 census weights). The number of unauthorized immigrants grew 36 percent between 2000 and 2011, from 8,460,000 to 11,510,000.

The 10 states with the largest number of unauthorized immigrants in 2011 were...
California: 2,830,000
Texas: 1,790,000
Florida: 740,000
New York: 630,000
Illinois: 550,000
Georgia: 440,000
New Jersey: 420,000
North Carolina: 400,000
Arizona: 360,000
Washington: 260,000

Since 2000, the number of unauthorized immigrants has grown in each of the above states except one. Florida's unauthorized immigrant population fell by 10,000 between 2000 and 2011.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2011

The Mystery of a Successful Marriage

What are the ingredients of a successful marriage? According to a new report from the National Survey of Family Growth, one of the most important ingredients, for women at least, is a college degree. Nothing guarantees a successful (i.e. long-lasting) marriage more than having a bachelor's degree. Take a look at the percentage of women whose first marriage has lasted for 20 years, by educational attainment...

Not a high school graduate: 39%
High school diploma/GED: 41%
Some college, no degree: 49%
Bachelor's degree: 78%

The relationship between educational attainment and marital success is weaker for men, but still important. The percentage of men whose first marriage has lasted for 20 years ranges from a low of 47 percent among men with no more than a high school diploma to a high of 65 percent among men with a bachelor's degree.

The answer to this mystery is obvious, and it has nothing to do with love and everything to do with money. Increasingly, and almost exclusively, economic success accrues to men with a bachelor's degree. Women who graduate from college are far more likely than less-educated women to meet and marry a man with a college degree. Money, and men's ability to earn it, is the most important ingredient of a successful marriage.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, First Marriages in the United States: Data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth

African Americans and the Great Recession

Black workers have been especially hurt by the Great Recession and the weak economic recovery. The black unemployment rate was 15.8 percent in 2011 compared with 7.9 percent for whites and 11.5 percent for Hispanics.

The question is, why have blacks been hit so hard? A new study by the Department of Labor has the answers. First, blacks have been disproportionately affected by what the report characterizes as "drastic layoffs in government." Blacks are 30 percent more likely than non-blacks to work in the public sector. Nearly one in five blacks (19.3 percent) works for federal, state, or local government versus 14 percent of whites and 10 percent of Hispanics.

Second, once unemployed, it has been more difficult for blacks to find another job because they are more likely to live in areas with relatively high unemployment rates. Fully 63 percent of unemployed blacks versus 39 percent of unemployed non-blacks live in areas with an unemployment rate of 10 percent or more. That explains why blacks are more likely than whites or Hispanics to have been out of work for 27 weeks or more (defined as the long-term unemployed). Nearly half of unemployed blacks (49.5 percent) are long-term unemployed versus 42 percent of whites and 40 percent of Hispanics.

That explains the bad news. The good news is that the worst may be over for black workers. The number of employed blacks grew by 700,000 between January 2011 and January 2012.

Source: Department of Labor, The African-American Labor Force in Recovery

Finding Work in Retirement

Seventy percent of workers say they plan to work for pay after they retire, according to the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey. Interestingly, however, many wonder whether they will be able to find a job. Only 28 percent of workers are "very confident" of their employability.

Retirees themselves offer a more realistic look at the odds of working in retirement. Only 27 percent of retirees say they have worked for pay since retirement. When asked how confident they are in their ability to find a job if necessary, only 9 percent feel "very confident." The 54 percent majority of retirees are not at all confident they could find a job.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey

Asians by Ethnic Group, 2010

Of the 17.3 million people in the United States who identify themselves as Asian, these are the largest ethnic-origin groups and the percentage of Asians who identify the group as one of their origins (more than one group could be named)...

Chinese: 4.0 million (23.2%)
Filipino: 3.4 million (19.7%)
Asian Indian: 3.2 million (18.4%)
Vietnamese: 1.7 million (10.0%)
Korean: 1.7 million (9.9%)
Japanese: 1.3 million (7.5%)

Source: Census Bureau, The Asian Population: 2010

Fat Demographics

If you want the skinny on fat, check out Obesity in America: Estimates for the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutional Population Aged 20 and Older, 2009. The percentage of Americans who are overweight varies surprisingly little by demographic characteristic--meaning the great majority of just about everyone is overweight.

Overall, 65 percent of the population aged 20 or older is overweight (a figure that includes the obese). There is almost no demographic segment in which the number of people who are overweight does not greatly surpass the number with a healthy weight. In fact, there are only two demographic segments in which being overweight is not the norm. One segment is "non-Hispanic other/multiple races," a group that includes Asians (48% overweight). The other is the youngest age group, aged 20 to 24 (45% overweight).

Whether you are man (72% overweight) or woman (59%), black (72%) or white (65%), middle aged (71%) or old (67%), high school dropout (70%) or college graduate (60%), rich (64%) or poor (66%), chances are you're fat.

Decline in Teens Talking on the Phone

Percentage of teens (aged 12 to 17) who talk to friends daily on a...

Landline phone
2011: 14%
2009: 30%

Cell phone
2011: 26%
2009: 38%

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Teens, Smartphones & Texting

Delaying Retirement

Percentage of workers aged 55 or older who expect to retire at age 66 or older...

2012: 51%
2002: 28%

Source: Employee Benefit Retirement Institute, 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey

Older Juries More Likely to Convict

An analysis of 700 felony trials in Florida from 2000 to 2010 shows that prosecutors prefer older jurors and are more likely to use their peremptory challenges to exclude younger people from a jury. Defense attorneys like younger jurors and are more likely to use their challenges to exclude older people from a jury. That's because older jurors are more likely to convict--even after controlling for race and gender, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research study.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, A Fair and Impartial Jury? The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes, Working Paper #17887, $5

Prison Happy

Number of prisoners in state and federal correctional institutions
2010: 1,543,206
1970:    196,429

Rate of imprisonment per 100,000 population
2010: 497
1970:   96

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

Explaining High Unemployment Rates

In a few paragraphs and charts, a new analysis by Jonathan James of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland goes a long way toward explaining what ails us. James examines the unusually high unemployment rate today among young adults relative to the middle aged. Typically, young adults are more likely to be unemployed than the middle aged. But beginning with the Great Recession, the difference in the unemployment rates of the young and the middle aged grew by one-third. James wanted to figure out why young adults have been disproportionately affected by the Great Recession, and this is what he found...

• the abnormally high unemployment rate among young adults is mostly due to the increase in unemployment among young men with no more than a high school diploma. Their unemployment rate climbed from 9.5 percent in 2007 to more than 20 percent in 2011. 
• behind this high unemployment rate is the loss of construction jobs, which explains 80 percent of the increase in the unemployment rate of young men.

Because construction is the primary entry-level job for young men, "it is likely that these workers will continue to endure high levels of unemployment until construction jobs return," says James. Because two-thirds of wage growth occurs in the first ten years of a career, he warns: "Even if these jobs return, the effects of the recession during these formative years in what otherwise would have been a period of skill formation and productivity growth may continue to be felt throughout their careers."

Source: Federal Reserve  Bank of Cleveland, Starting Off on the Wrong Foot: Early Careers and High Unemployment

Why Don't Young Adults Move?

Recently, the New York Times published a controversial op-ed piece that took young adults to task because they do not move as frequently as they once did. "Young Americans have become risk-averse and sedentary," the authors say, dubbing them the "Go-Nowhere Generation."

It's true, young adults are moving less. Until recently, about 30 percent of people in their twenties moved each year. By 2010-11, the figure had fallen to 24 percent.

The op-ed blames the usual suspects: the Internet and Facebook, as well as a pinch of laziness and a dash of complacency. But there is a much simpler explanation for the decline in the mobility of young adults: it's the economy, stupid! In particular, unemployment and student loan debt. Never before have the nation's young adults had to confront this one-two punch. On the one hand, it is difficult for them to find a job and even harder to get a job that pays a living wage. The unemployment rate of 20-to-29-year-olds was a double-digit 12 percent in 2011, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On the other hand, many have student loans, preventing them from hitting the road, taking risks, starting anew. Among the 241 million Americans with an Equifax credit report as of the third quarter of 2011, fully 40 percent of those under age 30 had student debt, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis.

No wonder a new Pew Research Center study found so many young adults living in multigenerational households. Among 25-to-34-year-olds, more than one in five (22 percent) are living with their parents or grandparents, says Pew, up from 11 percent in 1980. Among those who live with their parents, the 53 percent majority say their finances are tied up with their parents' finances.

The burden of student debt is a ball and chain on young adult aspirations. Debt--not the Internet--is preventing millions of young adults from establishing their own household, moving to a better city, buying a house, even getting married and having children.

Social Security and the Income of Older Americans

Among older Americans in 2010, Social Security accounts for over half of income beginning in the 70-to-74 age group. Here is the Social Security share of the income of older Americans by age in 2010..

55 to 61:   8.2%

62 to 64:  22.6%

65 to 69:  43.6%

70 to 74:  58.2%

75 to 79:  63.9%

80-plus:   69.4%

Source: Social Security Administration, Income of the Population 55 or Older, 2010

Nuclear Power: Benefits vs Risks

Percentage of people who think the benefits of nuclear power outweigh the risks, by generation...

Millennials: 34%
Gen Xers: 34%
Boomers: 43%
Older Americans: 53%

Source: Harris Interactive, One Year Post Fukushima, Americans Are Divided about the Risks of Nuclear Power

The Earnings of Older Americans

For older Americans, earnings as a source of income drop rapidly in importance with age. Here is the earnings share of the income of older Americans by age in 2010...

55 to 61: 72.3%
62 to 64: 52.0%
65 to 69: 31.4%
70 to 74: 15.5%
75 to 79:  8.5%
80-plus:   3.7%

Source: Social Security Administration, Income of the Population 55 or Older, 2010

Minimum Wage States

Nationally, 5.2 percent of the nation's workers are paid at or below the minimum wage, which is $7.25 per hour. Below are the three states with the largest percentage of minimum-wage workers, and the percentage of workers there who earn minimum wage or less...

Georgia: 9.6%
Mississippi: 8.5%
Texas: 8.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers: 2011

2012 Retirement Survey Released

Every year for 22 years the Employee Benefit Research Institute has been surveying workers and retirees about their retirement plans. Here are some of the findings from this year's survey...

• 23% of workers are "not at all" confident in having enough money to live comfortably in retirement. This figure is down from the all-time high of 27 percent in 2011, but it is far greater than the 14 percent who say they are very confident.
• 42% of workers say job uncertainty is the most pressing financial issue facing Americans today.
• 60% percent of workers have virtually no savings. The total of their household's savings and investments is less than $25,000 (not including housing equity).

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey

New Data on Student Loan Debt

For those interested in tracking the problem of student loan debt, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is now providing quarterly data--including the demographics of borrowers--on its Liberty Street Economics blog. As of the third quarter of 2011, the outstanding balance on student loans ($870 billion) exceeded the outstanding balance on credit cards ($693 billion) or auto loans ($730 billion).

Using data provided by Equifax, the researchers were able to examine the demographics of those who have student loans. Among the 241 million Americans with an Equifax credit report, a substantial 15 percent have outstanding student loan debt. Among people under age 30, fully 40 percent have outstanding student loans. Among those aged 30 to 39, the figure is 25 percent. The average outstanding student loan balance per borrower is $23,300, and the median balance is $12,800. People in their thirties owe the most (an average of $28,500), followed by those in their forties ($26,000). The authors calculate that 27 percent of student loan borrowers have past due balances.

Because student loans have become such an important part of the consumer landscape, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will update these figures each quarter.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Grading Student Loans

Support for Birth Control Coverage

Percent who support the federal requirement that private health insurance plans cover the cost of birth control, by sex and age...

73% of women aged 18 to 49
68% of men aged 18 to 49
59% of women aged 50 or older
50% of men aged 50 or older

Source: Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, February 2012

Homeowner and Renter Projections by Age

Finally, a demographic analysis of the the future of the housing market. A study by the Urban Institute summarizes the demographic trends that will impact the still unfolding housing crisis and projects the number of homeowners and renters by age to 2030. Some of the key demographic trends...

Older Americans will contribute increasingly to housing supply "Just as the Baby Boom will swell the number of seniors in the next two decades, it will also swell the number of dwellings released into the housing market over the next four decades," the authors note.

The Millennial generation will drive the housing market for the next two decades "The volume of housing demand over the next 20 years, especially for owner-occupied housing, will depend heavily on the economic and housing policy environment that confronts Echo Boomers as they mature from young adulthood into middle age," say the authors.

The study projects the number of total households, owners, and renters by age for the 2010 to 2030 time period in three growth scenarios--low, medium, and high. The homeownership rate in 2020 ranges from a low of 63.1 percent to a high of 65.4 percent (from 65.1 percent in 2010). The number of homeowners in 2020 ranges from a low of 79.8 million to a high of 86.0 million (from 76.0 million in 2010). The number of renters ranges more narrowly from 45.6 million to 46.6 million (from 40.7 million in 2010).

Source: Urban Institute, Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets

The Netherlands?

Only 2 percent  of privately-owned farmland in the United States is foreign-owned, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. Who are the foreign owners? Most foreign-owned farmland is held by just two countries: Canada and the Netherlands.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Trends in U.S. Farmland Values and Ownership

Do I Look Fat?

Percentage of high school girls who...

Are overweight: 16%
Describe themselves as overweight: 33%
Are trying to lose weight: 59%

Source: CDC, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2009

Extreme Moving

Number of people who moved from Hawaii to Alaska: 743
Number of people who moved from Alaska to Hawaii: 1,705

Source: Census Bureau, Geographic Mobility/Migration, State-to-State Migration Flows, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates

Out of Touch

Non-Hispanic white share of
U.S. population: 64%
Congress: 83%
Senate: 96%

Male share of
U.S. population: 49%
Congress: 83%
Senate: 83%

Median age of
U.S. population: 37
Congress: 57
Senate: 61

Source: Congressional Research Service, Representatives and Senators: Trends in Member Characteristics Since 1945

Five Most Costly Medical Conditions

More than $400 billion of the $1.26 trillion Americans spend annually on health care is devoted to just five medical conditions. Below are the five conditions, their total annual expense, and the percentage of the population with the expense in 2009 (the most recent data available)...

1. Heart disease: $99.2 billion (7.5%)
2. Trauma: $80.8 billion (11.0%)
3. Cancer: $80.3 billion (4.8%)
4. Mental disorders: $79.8 billion (12.8%)
5. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma: $64.2 billion (15.4%)

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, The Concentration of Health Care Expenditures and Related Expenses for Costly Medical Conditions, 2009

Homes Heated by Electricity

Number (and percent) of American homes using electricity as their primary heating fuel...

2010: 40,557,000 (35.4%)
1950:      293,000 (  0.7%)

Source: Census Bureau, 1950 census and 2010 American Community Survey

Debtor Nation: Medical Bills

Percentage of Americans who live in a family that...
Had problems paying medical bills in the past 12 months: 20.0%
Currently have medical bills they are paying off over time: 26.2%
Currently have medical bills they are unable to pay at all: 10.5%
Any of the above three problems: 32.4%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Financial Burden of Medical Care: Early Release of the National Health Interview Survey, January-June, 2011

Median Housing Costs

Median monthly housing costs by homeownership and mortgage status...

Owned home with a mortgage: $1,496
Rented home: $855
Owned home without a mortgage: $431

Note: Housing costs include mortgage payment, rent, regime fees, property tax, insurance, utilities and fuels.
Source: Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Self-Employment Drops to New Low

Self-employment in the United States fell to a new low in 2011. Only 6.8 percent of workers (including agricultural and non-agricultural) were self-employed in 2011, down from 7.0 percent in 2010 and 7.3 percent in 2000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Labor Force Participation: 2011

Below are the 2011 labor force participation rates by sex and age, as well as the percentage point change in the rate since 2000. Keep in mind that the participation rate includes both the employed and the unemployed. Note the dramatic decline in the labor force participation of teenagers.

Men

Total men: 70.5 (-4.3)

Aged 16 to 19: 33.7 (-19.1)

Aged 20 to 24: 74.7 (-7.9)

Aged 25 to 34: 89.2 (-4.2)

Aged 35 to 44: 90.9 (-1.8)

Aged 45 to 54: 86.2 (-2.4)

Aged 55 to 64: 69.3 (+2.0)

Aged 65-plus: 22.8 (+5.1)

Women

Total women: 58.1 (-1.8)

Aged 16 to 19: 34.6 (-16.6)

Aged 20 to 24: 67.8 (-5.3)

Aged 25 to 34: 73.9 (-2.2)

Aged 35 to 44: 74.7 (-2.5)

Aged 45 to 54: 75.4 (-1.4)

Aged 55 to 64: 59.5 (+7.6)

Aged 65-plus: 14.0 (+4.6)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

The Psychology of Saving More

How do you get workers to save more in their 401(k) plans? It's not that hard if you use the power of suggestion. That's the finding of a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

As an experiment, NBER researchers embedded different savings cues or highlighted different savings goals in emails sent to employees about their 401(k) plans. When a higher savings goal was suggested or highlighted in the emails, contribution rates increased. "A high savings goal example raises contribution rates by up to 2.2% of income," conclude the researchers.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Small Cues Change Savings Choices, NBER Working Paper #17843 ($5)

Waiting for Death

Average number of months between receiving a death sentence and execution: 178.

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

A Jane Jacobs Moment

Classic signs that a city is dying:

• Decline in the number of enterprises in the city
• Persistent growth in the underemployed
• Growth of make-work in city bureaucracies
• Piling up of undone work and unsolved practical problems
• Lack of new kinds of manufacturing to compensate for the losses of old
• Compulsive repetition of existing ways of doing things 
• Lack of local development capital for new goods and services
• Surfeit of capital for projects that destroy existing enterprises and jobs
• Quantities of capital for export

How many cities in the United States exhibit these symptoms? How can cities make things better for themselves and for rural America as well? The answers lie in the brilliant ideas of Jane Jacobs. For more of her insight see The Death and Life of Great American Cities and The Economy of Cities.

Household Income Dips in January

Median household income fell to $50,020 in January 2012, according to estimates by Sentier Research. The 1.3 percent decline, after adjusting for inflation, is the first downturn after four consecutive months of increase. One factor that led to the decline in real median household income is the 0.4 percent rise in the Consumer Price Index in January, according to Sentier's Gordon Green. 

January's $50,020 median household income was 5.4 percent lower than the median in June 2009--the supposed end of the Great Recession. It was 7.8 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 8.7 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for January 2012 was 91.3 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends Series: January 2012 

Thirtysomething Homeowners by Region

Young adults are dragging their feet about buying a home--either by choice or necessity. The annual homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group fell below 50 percent in 2011 for the first time in the history of the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey, which dates back to 1982.

In two regions, however, homeownership is still the norm for householders in their early thirties. In the Midwest, the 58.0 percent majority of householders aged 30 to 34 are homeowners. In the South, 50.4 percent of 30-to-34-year-olds own a home. The figures are below 50 percent in the Northeast (45.8) and West (44.1).

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership Up in Six States

Between 2004 (the year the overall homeownership rate peaked) and 2011, the homeownership rate has fallen in all but six states. The exceptions are Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Vermont.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Smartphones Now Dominate

Smartphones are now owned by the plurality of American adults. In February 2012, 46 percent of adults owned a smartphone--up from 35 percent in May 2011. A smaller 41 percent own a cell phone that is not a smartphone (down from 48 percent last May), and 12 percent do not own any kind of cell phone (down from 17 percent last May).

Smartphones are owned by the majority of people with household incomes of $75,000 or more and by the majority of those with at least some college education. Most adults under age 45 own a smartphone. Here are the percentages by age...

18-24: 67%
25-34: 71%
35-44: 54%
45-54: 44%
55-64: 31%
65-plus: 13%

Source: Pew Research Center, Nearly Half of American Adults Are Smartphone Owners