Teens Are Driving Less

The nation's teenagers are driving less than they once did. Only 50 percent of 16-to-17-year-olds drive on an average day, according to the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. This is down from 58 percent in 2009 and 63 percent in 2001.

Percentage of 16-to-17-year-olds who drive on an average day
2017: 50%
2009: 58%
2001: 63%

What's behind the decline in teen driving? One factor is that fewer 16-to-17-year-olds have a driver's license. Only 27 percent of 16-year-olds had a driver's license in 2018, down from 34 percent in 2001. Among 17-year-olds, the figure fell from 54 to 46.5 percent during those years, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

But there may be another reason for teens' lack of interest in cars. As the National Household Travel Survey report explains, "given the fact that teens have grown up in a society that is largely connected by technology, their travel patterns may be different in 2017 as compared to 2001." In other words, the smartphone is an easier and cheaper way to stay in touch with friends than the automobile.

Source: Federal Highway Administration, National Household Travel Survey, Travel Trends for Teens and Seniors

The Most Popular Outdoor Recreational Activities

Nearly half of Americans aged 6 or older (49 percent) participate in outdoor recreational activities during a year's time, according to the Outdoor Foundation. Annual participation has been at the 49 percent level for the past decade. Here are the outdoor fitness activities in which at least 10 percent of people aged 6 or older participate at least once a year...

Most popular outdoor fitness activities
Running: 19%
Fishing: 17%
Bicycling: 16%
Hiking: 15%
Camping: 14%

Among those who do not participate in outdoor recreational activities, 46 percent would like to do so. Family responsibilities are cited as the biggest obstacle to their participation.

Source: Outdoor Foundation, 2018 Outdoor Participation Report

How Many Books Do You Read in a Year?

If you read at least one book in the past year, you rank among the majority of Americans. According to a 2017 survey by the National Endowment for the Arts, 53 percent of American adults read at least one book in the past 12 months—excluding those required for work or school. The median number of books read in a year's time is a modest 4.8, and the average 11.4. Still, the numbers add up. Americans read 1.4 billion books in 2017.

Women are more likely than men to have read a book in the past 12 months (61 versus 44 percent). By age, readership is as low as 47 percent among 18-to-24-year-olds, but is 50 percent or higher in all older age groups. The figure peaks at 57 percent among 65-to-74-year-olds. Not surprisingly, reading books increases with education...

Percent who read a book during past 12 months
High school graduate only: 40%
Some college/associate degree: 55%
College graduate: 68%
Graduate school: 79%

Twenty-three percent of adults used an electronic device, such as an e-reader or tablet computer, to read a book in the past year. Sixteen percent listened to an audiobook.

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, U.S. Patterns of Arts Participation: A Full Report from the 2017 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts

Moms Provide Most Homeschooling Instruction

Nearly 1.7 million children aged 5 to 17 are being homeschooled in the United States, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Parents homeschool their children for a variety of reasons, but most parents cite these four...

80% homeschool because of concern about the environment of other schools
67% homeschool to provide moral instruction
61% homeschool because of dissatisfaction with academic instruction at other schools
51% homeschool to provide religious instruction

Mothers are the main provider of instruction for 78 percent of homeschooled students. Only 13 percent are taught primarily by their father. While Moms are the main teachers for most homeschooled students, 23 percent receive at least some instruction by a tutor or private teacher, and 31 percent receive at least some instruction from a local homeschooling group.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Homeschooling in the United States: Results from the 2012 and 2016 Parent and Family Involvement Survey

44% of People Aged 50-Plus Play Video Games

More older Americans are playing video games, according to a 2019 AARP survey. Forty-four percent of people aged 50 or older engage in "interactive digital entertainment that you play via a computer, a game console (like the Xbox or PlayStation), or a phone or tablet" at least once a month. This level of participation is higher than the 38 percent of 2016. The average 50-plus gamer spends five hours a week playing video games. Nearly half (47 percent) of older gamers play daily.

In the 50-plus age group, women are more likely than men to play video games—49 percent of women aged 50-plus report playing video games at least once a month versus 40 percent of men. Among the women gamers, 53 percent play daily. Among the men, only 39 percent play every day.

Percent of people aged 50-plus who play video games
Aged 50 to 59: 49%
Aged 60 to 69: 44%
Aged 70-plus: 39%

A growing share of older gamers use phones, tablets, or other mobile devices to play games—73 percent in 2019, up from 57 percent in 2016. A shrinking share play on computers or laptops—47 percent in 2019, down from 59 percent in 2016.

The three most popular types of games among older gamers are puzzle/logic games (named by 49 percent), card/tile games (47 percent), and trivia/word/traditional board video games (22 percent). What do older Americans get out of playing video games? The largest share—57 percent—say playing video games "provides me with relief from anxiety or stress."

Source: AARP, Gaming Attitudes and Habits of Adults Ages 50-Plus

Median Household Income Falls in November 2019

Median household income fell between October and November 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $66,043 November median was 0.9 percent below the October 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. "The relatively large increase in inflation last month (0.3 percent), following a comparable increase the month before, had a negative effect on real median annual household income," reports Sentier. The Sentier estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

Despite the recent dip, "real median household income has continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 1.9 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 17.5 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $56,185.  

Sentier's Household Income Index for November 2019 was 106.2 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the November 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 6.2 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: November 2019

Nearly 1 Million Same-Sex Households in U.S.

Among the nearly 1 million same-sex couple households in the U.S. in 2018, 60 percent are married couples, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey.

Total same-sex couple households: 995,420
Married couples: 592,561
Unmarried partners: 402,859

California, the most populous state, has the most same-sex couple households (135,274). Florida, Texas, and New York are home to more than 70,000. Only 878 same-sex couples live in Wyoming, the least populous state.

Source: Census Bureau, Characteristics of Same-Sex Couple Households

Trends of the 2020s: Slow-Go Boomers

Lists, rankings, and reviews. The end of a decade brings a torrent of retrospective. If you're tired of looking back, then let's look ahead. Using the demographics as a crystal ball, Trends of the 2020s will be a series of occasional posts identifying the major trends of the decade ahead.

Here's one of the major trends of the 2020s: Slow-Go Boomers. The oldest Boomers turn 74 this year. During the next two decades, the number of people aged 75 to 84 will expand by 84 percent as Boomers pass through the age group. The number of 75-to-84-year-olds is projected to rise from 16.6 million this year to 30.5 million by 2040, according to the Census Bureau. In the decades ahead, the Baby-Boom generation will downshift from the "Go Go" (65 to 74) lifestage of old age to the "Slow Go" (75 to 84) and "No Go" (85-plus) lifestages.

The 2010s was characterized by rapid growth in the number of 65-to-74-year-olds as the oldest Boomers filled the age group—the Go-Go years of old age. Recently retired and still physically robust, Boomers were eager to embrace new experiences. The next few decades will not be as easy. At ages 75 to 84, the Slow-Go years, physical difficulties and health conditions begin to limit activities and shape lifestyles. At ages 85-plus, the No-Go years, it gets worse.

Most in the Go-Go years of old age have no difficulty taking care of themselves (self-care), getting around (mobility), or doing chores (household activities), according to a Department of Health and Human Services study, Disability and Care Needs of Older Americans. With advancing age, however, the percentage of older Americans with difficulties rises steeply...

Percentage of people aged 75-plus with difficulties in self-care, mobility, or household activities
Aged 75 to 79: 48.5%
Aged 80 to 84: 59.4%
Aged 85 to 89: 75.0%
Aged 90-plus: 85.3%

During the 2020s, the oldest Boomers will age into the Slow-Go years, a time when difficulties become the norm. Most of those with difficulties receive help from unpaid caregivers—family and friends, primarily. Already, 40 million unpaid caretakers (16 percent of the population aged 15 or older) are helping the nation's elderly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' report, Unpaid Eldercare in the United States. And the oldest Boomers haven't even turned 75 yet. That happens in 2021.

2010s: Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History?

We await the April 1, 2020 census datapoint, but so far it looks like the 2010s will go down in U.S. history as the decade with the slowest population growth. In the years between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2019, the U.S. population grew by just 6.3 percent, according to the Census Bureau's newly released population estimates for 2019. When the April 1, 2020 census count is released next year, the growth rate of the 2010s is likely to remain below the current record low of 7.3 percent recorded in the 1930s.

U.S. population growth by decade has been slowing since the 1950s. During the 1950s, the population grew by 18.5 percent—more than double the growth of the 1930s—coinciding with the birth of the baby-boom generation. In every decade since, population growth has been slower than in the previous decade with the exception of the 1990s...

Percent change in U.S. population by decade
2010 to 2019: 6.3% (incomplete data)
2000 to 2010: 9.7%
1990 to 2000: 13.1%
1980 to 1990: 9.8%
1970 to 1980: 11.4%
1960 to 1970: 13.4%
1950 to 1960: 18.5%
1940 to 1950: 14.5%
1930 to 1940: 7.3% (record low)

Note: Percent changes by decade are calculated using April 1 census counts except for 2010 to 2019, which is the percent change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019.

There are two reasons for the slow rate of population growth during this decade. The ongoing baby bust is one reason, with the fertility rate at a record low. The annual rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) fell from 4.7 to just 2.9 per 1,000 population from 2010 to 2019. The number of people added to the population each year through natural increase fell from 1.5 million between 2010 and 2011 to just 957,000 between 2018 and 2019.

Falling net migration (immigrants minus emigrants) is the other factor that has resulted in what is likely to be the slowest decade of population growth in U.S. history. The annual rate of net migration fell from 2.5 to 1.8 per 1,000 population from 2010 to 2019. The population gain from net migration during this decade peaked at more than 1 million in 2015 and 2016. But between 2018 and 2019, a net of only 595,000 migrants were added to the population.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010—2019

Growing Interest in Solar Panels

The use of solar energy by U.S. households is miniscule. Only 6 percent of homeowners say they have installed solar panels at their home, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The figure is highest in the Mountain states, where 17 percent have done so. In the East and West South Central states, the figure is just 1 percent.

Though few have installed solar panels, many are seriously thinking about it. Nationally, 46 percent of homeowners are giving serious thought to the use of solar energy, up from 40 percent who said they were seriously considering it in 2016.

Percentage of homeowners who are giving serious thought to installing solar panels (and percentage who have already done so), by region/division, 2019
Northeast: 44% (7%)
Midwest: 42% (2%)
South Atlantic: 51% (4%)
East and West South Central: 45% (1%)
Mountain: 36% (17%)
Pacific: 54% (14%)

Source: Pew Research Center, More U.S. Homeowners Say They Are Considering Home Solar Panels

The Biggest Spenders on Gifts

The average household spent $1,206 on gifts for people in other households in 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey. This is 14 percent less, after adjusting for inflation, than the average household spent on gifts in the midst of the Great Recession in 2008.

Spending on gifts for people in other households peaks in the 45-to-54 age group at $2,043. Householders aged 55 to 64 are the second biggest spenders, devoting $1,766 to gifts. These two age groups are the biggest spenders on gifts for people in other households because most have adult children (and grandchildren) living elsewhere, and many still have living parents. Among household types, married couples without children at home spend the most on gifts for people in other households. Most of these couples are empty nesters with adult children and grandchildren living elsewhere.

These are the householders who spend the most on gifts for people in other households...

Biggest spenders: Average household spending on gifts for people in other households, 2018 
Biggest by age, householders aged 45 to 54: $2,043
Biggest by household type, married couples without children at home: $1,972
Biggest by education, householders with a graduate degree: $2,526
Biggest by income, households with incomes of $200,000-plus: $4,638
Biggest by generation, Boomers: $1,620

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

New Reality for Manufacturing Jobs

Times have changed. No longer are manufacturing jobs the relatively high-paying opportunities they once were, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics' analysis of trends in earnings by industry. Although "the pay earned by production workers in manufacturing has long served as a marker for what constitutes middle-class status in the United States," says the BLS, "that status has changed." Manufacturing workers in the U.S. now earn less than the average private sector worker. In 1990, they earned 106 percent of the average. By 2018, the figure had fallen to 95 percent.

Some manufacturing workers have endured outright declines in hourly and weekly earnings. Those in the motor vehicles and parts industry, for example, saw their average hourly earnings fall 20 percent between 1990 and 2018, after adjusting for inflation. Their average weekly earnings fell 14 percent.

Not all manufacturing jobs have lost ground, however. Earnings have grown strongly since 1990 for petroleum and coal production workers. The 2018 average hourly earnings of $40.32 for these workers was well above the $22.71 for all private sector workers. Other industries in which manufacturing workers still earn more than the average private sector worker include computer and electronic parts, transportation equipment, and chemicals.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Relative Weakness in Earnings of Production Workers in Manufacturing

Who Thinks Their Mental Health Is Excellent?

When asked how mentally healthy they are, 43 percent of Americans aged 18 or older say their mental health is "excellent," according to a 2019 Gallup survey. Feeling good about mental health rises with age...

Percent saying mental health is "excellent"
Aged 18 to 34: 39%
Aged 35 to 54: 43%
Aged 55-plus: 47%

Men are more positive than women about their mental health—49 percent of men and 37 percent of women say they have excellent mental health. Republicans are more likely than any other demographic segment to believe they are at the top of their game. Fully 56 percent of Republicans say they have excellent mental health. Among Democrats, only 30 percent feel that way.

Source: Gallup, 71% of U.S. Adults Rate Mental, Physical Health Positively, Final Topline

Struggling to Sleep, Many Take Medications

Millions of Americans frequently take a medication to help them fall or stay asleep, according to the National Health Interview Survey. Overall, 8.2 percent of adults aged 18 or older took a sleep medication four or more times in the past week. Women are more likely than men to use sleep medications frequently—9.7 percent of women versus 6.6 percent of men. Frequent use of sleep medications rises with age...

Percent of women who took a sleep medication 4 or more times in past week
Aged 18 to 44: 5.8%
Aged 45 to 64: 12.7%
Aged 65-plus: 13.2%

Source: CDC, Percentage of Adults Aged ≥ 18 Who Took Medication to Help Them Fall or Stay Asleep Four or More Times in the Past Week, by Sex and Age Group—National Health Interview Survey, United States, 2017–2018

Who Wears a Fitness Tracker?

One in five Americans (19 percent) wears a fitness tracker, such as a Fitbit or Apple Watch, according to a Gallup survey. Women are more likely than men to wear a fitness tracker—21 versus 16 percent. Not surprisingly, young adults are more likely to do so than their elders...

Currently wear a fitness tracker
Aged 18 to 34: 28%
Aged 35 to 54: 22%
Aged 55-plus: 10%

Younger women are especially likely to wear a fitness tracker. Among adults under age 50, fully 31 percent of women and 21 percent of men wear a tracker. The figures among women and men aged 50 or older are 13 and 10 percent, respectively.

Source: Gallup, One in Five U.S. Adults Use Health Apps, Wearable Trackers

Who Wants to Live Close to the Arts?

Location, location, location. That's what some people look for when choosing a place to live. They want to live in a location convenient to arts and cultural events, according to a study by the National Endowment for the Arts.

But how many feel this way? To find out, the NEA added supplemental questions to the Census Bureau's 2015 American Housing Survey. For most Americans (62 percent), living near arts and cultural events is not important, according to the survey's results. But for 38 percent, it is.

In the 15 metropolitan areas included in the 2015 American Housing Survey, this is the percentage of households who say it is important for them to live close to arts and cultural events...

Percent saying it is important to live convenient to arts and cultural events, by metro area
57% in San Francisco
53% in Los Angeles
50% in New York
49% in Washington, DC
46% in Seattle
45% in Boston
44% in Chicago
43% in Atlanta
41% in Dallas
41% in Philadelphia
40% in Miami
40% in Phoenix
36% in Detroit
35% in Houston
33% in Riverside-San Bernardino

Among people living in nonmetropolitan areas, only 25 percent say living close to arts and cultural events is important to them.

Source: The National Endowment for the Arts, The Arts in Neighborhood Choice

The Lives of Young Adults Have Been Transformed by the Rise in School Enrollment

The percentage of young adults who were enrolled in school in 2018 was a bit below the record high, thanks to the full-employment economy. But the latest figures are not far from the records, which were recorded in the aftermath of the Great Recession. It is now the norm to go to college at the completion of high school and stay in school beyond age 20. The rise in school enrollment has transformed the lives of young adults.

Percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds enrolled in school, 1960 to 2018

	18 and 19	20 and 21	22 to 24
2018	69.1%	54.6%	28.0%
2010	69.2	52.4	28.9
2000	61.2	44.1	24.6
1990	57.3	39.7	21.0
1980	46.4	31.0	16.3
1970	47.7	31.9	14.9
1960	38.4	19.4	8.7

Among 18-and-19-year-olds, 69 percent were enrolled in school in 2018, up from just 38 percent in 1960. More than half of 20-to-21-year-olds were in school in 2018 versus only one in five in 1960. Among 22-to-24-year-olds, more than one in four are in school today, three times the share of 1960. As young people spend more time in school, they have postponed marriage and childbearing.

Notice the higher school enrollment of 18-to-21-year-olds in 1970 than in 1980. This was due to the Vietnam War, which drove young men onto college campuses to avoid the draft. In 1970, fully 54 percent of men aged 18 and 19 were enrolled in school. Among their female counterparts at the time, only 42 percent were in school. Similarly among 20-and-21-year-olds in 1970, 43 percent of men but only 24 percent of women were enrolled in school. Today, women in these age groups are more likely than men to be in school. Among 18-and-19-year-olds in 2018, 72 percent of women and 66 percent of men were enrolled in school. Among 20-and-21-year-olds, the figures are 58 and 51 percent, respectively.

Source: Census Bureau, CPS Historical Time Series on School Enrollment

35% of Middle and High School Students Have Vaped

Vaping now far outpaces smoking cigarettes as a teenage vice. Only 16 percent of middle and high school students have ever smoked cigarettes, according to the CDC, while more than twice as many—35 percent—have used e-cigarettes (vaping). In the past 30 days, only 4 percent smoked a cigarette while 20 percent vaped.

A large percentage of teens have vaped in the past 30 days in every demographic segment. Here are the stats among high school students by sex, race, and Hispanic origin...

Percentage of high school students who used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days, 2019
Total: 27.5%
Females: 27.4%
Males: 27.6%
Blacks: 17.7%
Hispanics: 23.2%
Non-Hispanic Whites: 32.4%

For many, vaping begins in middle school, where 10.5 percent used an e-cigarette in the past 30 days. Only 2 percent of middle school students smoked a cigarette in the past 30 days.

Those who have ever used e-cigarettes report a variety of reasons for using them. The single biggest reason, reported by the 55 percent majority of users, is curiosity. Other reasons include a family member or friend using them (31 percent), the flavors (22 percent), doing tricks with them (21 percent), and believing they are less harmful than other forms of tobacco (16 percent).

Source: CDC, Tobacco Product Use and Associated Factors among Middle and High School Students—United States, 2019

Climate Change in Your Community

Perceptions of climate change depend on where people live, according to a Pew Research Center survey. While 62 percent of Americans aged 18 or older say climate change is having either "some" or "a great deal" of an effect in their local community, the figure is as high as 72 percent among people who live in the Pacific states of the West. Among those in the Pacific states who say climate change is having a local impact, 83 percent say it is causing more frequent wildfires and 78 percent say it is causing long periods of unusually hot weather.

Percent who say climate change is having an effect in their local community by census region/division
72% in the Pacific division
63% in the South Atlantic division
61% in the Northeast
59% in the Midwest
59% in the East South Central and West South Central divisions
54% in the Mountain division

Living near the coast also influences attitudes toward climate change. Among those who live within 25 miles of the coast, 67 percent think climate change is having an effect in their community. Among those who live more than 25 miles from the coast, a smaller 59 to 60 percent feel that way.

Perhaps the biggest difference in attitudes toward climate change is by political party. While 82 percent of Democrats say climate change is having an effect in their local community, only 38 percent of Republicans agree.

Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Public Views on Climate and Energy

Median Household Income Stable in October 2019

Median household income did not change significantly between September and October 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $66,465 October median was almost identical to the September 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

"Real median household income has continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 3.3 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 18.6 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $56,036.  

Sentier's Household Income Index for October 2019 was 107.2 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the October 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 7.2 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: October 2019

This Year, Just Say No to Dessert

Why now, Gallup? Just as the holiday season commences, Gallup again releases the results of a survey that reminds us to watch our weight—as it does every year at this time. The percentage of Americans aged 18 or older who weigh 200 or more pounds is climbing, Gallup notes in this year's release, rising from 24 percent in the 2001–09 time period to 28 percent in 2010–19. Evidently, no one is paying attention to Gallup's annual reminder to watch our weight. Among men, 42 percent weigh at least 200 pounds, up from 38 percent a decade ago. Among women, the share rose from 12 to 14 percent.

Weight distribution of American men in 2010–19
1%: 124 pounds or less
7%: 125 to 149 pounds
23%: 150 to 174 pounds
25%: 175 to 199 pounds
42%: 200 pounds or more

Weight distribution of American women in 2010–19
14%: 124 pounds or less
28%: 125 to 149 pounds
24%: 150 to 174 pounds
13%: 175 to 199 pounds
14%: 200 pounds or more

Despite the fact that we are getting fatter, Americans are less likely to think they are overweight in the 2010–19 time period than in the 2001–09 decade. The percentage who think they are somewhat or very overweight fell from 41 to 38 percent during those years. The percentage who say their weight is about right increased from 53 to 56 percent. This is fantasy. Here are the facts, according to actual measurements of height and weight taken by the National Center for Health Statistics: 71 percent of adults are overweight and just 28 percent are "about right," or what NCHS calls normal weight.

As we normalize our expanding girth, it's not surprising that our ideal weight is also rising. Among women, ideal weight climbed from 137 to 140 pounds between 2001–09 and 2010–19, Gallup reports. Among men, the ideal rose from 158 to 160 pounds. Perhaps consequently, fewer say they want to lose weight. Among women, 60 percent said they wanted to lose weight in 2010–19, down from 65 percent in 2001–09. Among men, the percentage who want to lose weight fell from 59 to 54 percent.

Source: Gallup, More Americans Say They Weigh 200 Lbs. or More This Decade

Number of Births in 2018 Lowest Since 1986

The final numbers are in. There were only 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the National Center for Health Statistics report, Births Final Data for 2018. While this is a tad more than the number reported provisionally back in May (3,788,235), the additional 3,477 births included in the final number did not reverse the trend. The number of births in 2018 was the smallest since 1986. It was 63,788 less than the number of births in 2017, and it was more than 500,000 below the all-time high of 4.3 million in 2007. The 2018 fertility rate—the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44—dropped to a record low of 59.1.

Have we hit bottom? Hard to tell. According to the NCHS vital statistics rapid release program, the fertility rate was significantly higher (58.6) in the second quarter of 2019 than it was in the second quarter of 2018 (58.3). While not much of an increase, it could indicate an end to the decline. But the first quarter number suggested the opposite. The fertility rate in the first quarter of 2019 was significantly lower (55.9) than in the first-quarter of 2018 (57.2). Stay tuned.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Births: Final Data for 2018

40% of Hispanic Households Include Children

Households headed by Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics are more likely to include children under age 18 than are households headed by non-Hispanic Whites, according to the Census Bureau's 2019 Current Population Survey. Behind the difference is the fact that non-Hispanic Whites, on average, are considerably older than Asians, Blacks, or Hispanics and less likely to be in their childrearing years.

Households with children under age 18 by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2019
Asian: 35%
Black: 26%
Hispanic: 40%
Non-Hispanic White: 23%

Among the nation's 34 million households with children under age 18, non-Hispanic Whites head the 57 percent majority. Hispanics head 21 percent of households with children, Blacks (alone) head 13 percent, and Asians (alone) 7 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2019

Renter Mobility Rate Slips below 20%

The nation's mobility rate hit an all-time low of 9.8 percent in 2018–19, primarily because fewer renters are moving. The mobility rate of renters fell to 19.7 percent, a record low and the first time the figure has been below 20 percent. The mobility rate of renters exceeded 30 percent before 2006. Because renters account for two-thirds of movers, the falling mobility rate of renters is the biggest factor behind the nation's record low overall mobility rate. Here is the trend in mobility by housing tenure...

Percentage of renters who moved
2018–19: 19.7%
2010–11: 26.1%
2000–01: 30.5%
1990–01: 33.6%

Percentage of homeowners who moved
2018–19: 4.9%
2010–11: 4.7%
2000–01: 7.4%
1990–01: 8.8%

Between 2018–19, only 20.9 million renters moved. This is the smallest number since the Census Bureau began to collect data on mobility rates by housing tenure in the 1980s. Among homeowners, 10.4 million moved in 2018–19, down from about 15 million a year prior to the Great Recession. 

Source: Census Bureau, Migration/Geographic Mobility

Fun Facts about Food

The folks who work for the USDA's Economic Research Service must have a lot of fun analyzing how food fits into the daily routine of the average American. It boggles the mind how much information ERS researchers Tobenna D. Anekwe and Eliana Zeballos have extracted from the American Time Use survey to reveal our relationship with food—not just eating and drinking, but also traveling to the store, shopping, food preparation and cleanup. These details are presented in their study, Food-Related Time Use: Changes and Demographic Differences.

Let's start with why it matters.  Food-related activities, say the researchers, rank fourth among the most common activities in which Americans participate on an average day—behind only sleep, paid work, and watching television. Here are a few of the fun facts about food the researchers detail in their study, which also explores demographic differences in food-related activities and trends over the past decade...

• 95%: Percentage who participate in primary eating and drinking on an average day (meaning their main activity at the time).
• 64.0 minutes: Average minutes per day the average person spends eating and drinking as a primary activity. 
• 53%: Percentage who participate in secondary eating and drinking on an average day (meaning they are primarily doing something else—such as watching television or working).
• 16.8 minutes: Average minutes per day the average person spends eating and drinking as a secondary activity .
• 6 hours 23.4 minutes: Time Americans spend between primary eating and drinking occasions.
• 1.99: Number of primary eating and drinking occasions Americans engage in on an average day.
• 53%: Percentage who participate in food preparation on an average day.
• 51.1 minutes: Time spent preparing food by those who engage in food preparation.
• 23%: Percentage who participate in food cleanup on an average day.
• 34.1 minutes: Time spent in cleanup by those who engage in food cleanup.
• 14%: Percentage who shop for groceries on an average day.
• 24.4 minutes: Time those who shop for groceries spend getting to the store. 
• 46.0 minutes: Time those who shop for groceries spend in the store. 
• 6:00 to 6:59 pm: Time of day when the most people (32%) are engaged in primary eating and drinking on an average day. Second is 12:00 to 12:59 pm, at 30%. Third is 7:00 to 7:59 am, at 15%.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food-Related Time Use: Changes and Demographic Differences

Only 26% of Households Include Children Under Age 18

Only 26 percent of American households include children under age 18, according to the Census Bureau's 2019 Current Population Survey—a new record low. This is 10 percentage points below the 36 percent of 2000 and about half what it was in 1960, when 49 percent of households included children—a modern-day high in the midst of the baby boom.

Percent of households with children under age 18 by age of householder, 2019
Under age 25: 18%
Aged 25 to 29: 33%
Aged 30 to 34: 51%
Aged 35 to 39: 65%
Aged 40 to 44: 62%
Aged 45 to 49: 49%
Aged 50 to 54: 27%
Aged 55 to 64: 7%
Aged 65-plus: 1%

The average age of householders with children under age 18 is just 40, well below the average age of 52 for all householders. Seventy percent of households with children are headed by married couples, 23 percent by female householders, and 7 percent by male householders.

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements: 2019

Please and Thank You: How We Talk to Smart Speakers

One in four Americans (25 percent) has a smart speaker—such as an Amazon Alexa or a Google Home—in their house, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Younger adults are more likely than those aged 50 or older to have a smart speaker...

Smart speaker ownership by age
Aged 18 to 29: 32%
Aged 30 to 49: 28%
Aged 50 to 64: 19%
Aged 65-plus: 19%

Those who own a smart speaker worry that it is collecting data about them, with 54 percent saying they are "somewhat" or "very" concerned. The fear of being overheard—and judged—might explain this survey finding: 54 percent of smart speaker owners occasionally or frequently say "please" when speaking to their device.

Source: Pew Research Center, 5 Things to Know about Americans and Their Smart Speakers

Geographic Mobility Rate Falls Below 10%

This is a broken record, literally. Each year brings a new low in the mobility rate, breaking the record set in the previous year.  The percentage of the population aged 1 or older who moved from one house to another in the past 12 months fell to a new low of 9.8 percent between March 2018 and March 2019, according to the Census Bureau. Today's mobility rate is less than half the rate of the 1950s and 1960s.

Mobility rate for selected years
2018–19:   9.8%
2017–18: 10.1%
2010–11: 11.6%
2000–01: 14.2%
1990–91: 17.0%
1980–81: 17.2%
1970–71: 18.7%
1960–61: 20.6%
1950–51: 21.2%

The number of people who moved fell to 31 million in 2018–19. This is 5.7 million fewer movers than a decade ago in 2008–09 and 11.3 million fewer movers than two decades ago in 1998–99. The number of movers has not been this low since 1953–54, when the U.S. population was half the size it is today.

Source: Census Bureau, Migration/Geographic Mobility

Women's Median Age at First Marriage Rises to 28.0

The median age at which women marry for the first time reached a new high of 28.0 in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The median age at which men marry held steady at its all-time high of 29.8. Here is the trend since 2000...

Women: median age at first marriage
2019: 28.0
2018: 27.8
2015: 27.1
2010: 26.1
2005: 25.3
2000: 25.1

Men: median age at first marriage
2019: 29.8
2018: 29.8
2015: 29.2
2010: 28.2
2005: 27.1
2000: 26.8

The lowest median age at first marriage was recorded in 1956, when women married for the first time at 20.1 and men at 22.5.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Marital Status Tables

The Customers of Ride-Hailing Services

Ten percent of the U.S. population aged 18 or older used a ride-hailing service at least once in the past month, according to the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). Researchers Rick Grahn, Stan Caldwell, and Chris Hendrickson of the Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation at Carnegie Mellon University analyzed the 2017 data in an effort to provide policy recommendations on emerging technologies in transportation.

Data from 2017 may seem a bit dated when analyzing an industry that has been operating in earnest for only eight years. But if that's all we've got—and it is—then it's important to take a look. But first, an explanation of why 2017 data are all we've got. The Federal Highway Administration only occasionally fields the NHTS, asking Americans to detail how they get to where they're going every time they step out the door. The last NHTS was fielded in 2009—pre Uber. The 2017 statistics on the demographics and travel patterns of ride-hailing users are valuable simply because they are rare.  

So let's take a look at the findings. As you might expect, young adults are the primary users of ride-hailing services. Among 25-to-34-year-olds, one in four used a ride-hailing service in the past month—more than any other age group. 

Percent using ride-hailing service in past month
Aged 18 to 24: 17.4%
Aged 25 to 34: 24.6%
Aged 35 to 44: 15.5%
Aged 45 to 54: 10.1%
Aged 55 to 64: 6.2%
Aged 65 to 74: 3.4%
Aged 75-plus: 1.8%

Because about 60 percent of ride-hailing customers use the service three or fewer times per month, the researchers suggest that ride-hailing is a special-occasion mode of transportation and not used for the regular commute to work. Although most use the service only a few times a month, 41 percent of ride-hailing customers use it at least once a week. These devotees are in their mid-thirties. They are relatively affluent, with a median household income between $100,000 and $125,000. They are likely to have a bachelor's degree. They are also more likely than the average American to use public transit. Frequent ride-hailing customers use public transit 7 to 10 times a month compared with just 2 trips a month for the average person. 

What are the policy implications of these findings? It's complex, say the researchers, because it's not yet clear how ride-hailing affects the transportation system. Are ride-hailing users replacing public transit trips with ride-hailing? Or are other modes of transportation being replaced by ride-hailing? "The inability to understand the role ride-hailing services play in urban mobility creates challenges in the transportation decision making process," they conclude. Let's hope the NHTS is fielded more frequently in the future so these questions can be answered.

Source: Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation at Carnegie Mellon, Recommended Policies for the 21st Century Trends in U.S. Mobility

47% Faced a Financial Challenge in Past Year

Nearly half of American households (47 percent) headed by people aged 30 or older experienced an unexpected financial challenge in the past year, according to an AARP survey. Among households headed by Millennials and Gen Xers, the majority faced at least one such challenge. AARP defines an unexpected financial challenge as one that "caused a significant strain in your budget or your ability to pay your bills."

Percent experiencing at least one unexpected financial challenge in the past year
Millennials: 58%
Gen Xers: 54%
Boomers: 38%

Medical expenses were the number-one cause of financial challenges, cited by 33 percent. The median cost of a financial challenge was between $3,000 and $3,999. About half (51 percent) of those who experienced an unexpected financial challenge managed to get their finances back under control in less than 6 months. That's the good news. The bad news is that the 56 percent majority of those who faced a financial challenge experienced more than one.

Source: AARP,  Coping with an Unexpected Financial Challenge

More than 10% of Couples Work for Same Employer

Here's a question you might have asked yourself but never thought there would be an answer. How many dual-earner couples work for the same employer? The answer is 11 to 13 percent, according to a Monthly Labor Review study by Census Bureau economist Henry R. Hyatt.

Wait, what? How can so many couples share an employer? Intraoffice romance is frowned upon these days, often leading to job termination. Not to worry. Hyatt's data are from the 2000 census, so the office romances he discovered occurred in a different era. And there's another reason not to worry (keep reading).

For his study, Hyatt linked 2000 census microdata with administrative records to estimate the percentage of same-sex couples (both married and cohabiting) who share an occupation, industry, work location, and employer. Sharing these characteristics is surprisingly common, he found. A sizable proportion of couples share a narrow industry of employment (12 to 15 percent), and many also work within the same census block. But these shared characteristics, Hyatt finds, are driven  primarily by coworking. "Of those who worked in the same narrow census industry, about 63 percent worked in the same workplace, as did 70 percent of those who worked in the same census block."

Perhaps Hyatt's most interesting finding is this: most coworking couples were couples before they were coworkers. "The vast majority of coworking couples chose the same employer after meeting rather than meeting on the job," says Hyatt. Is it as easy today as it was in 2000 for couples to find jobs with the same employer? Perhaps that question will be answered by a future analysis of 2020 census results.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Coworking Couples and the Similar Jobs of Dual-Earner Households

Childhood Trauma Worsens Health

The 61 percent majority of American adults report having endured at least one adverse childhood experience, according to the CDC. This finding is based on a unique set of questions about adverse childhood experiences added to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys in 25 states in 2015–2017. Eight types of adverse experiences were tallied by the survey—three types of abuse (physical, emotional, and/or sexual), and five problems with household members (substance abuse, incarceration, mental illness, parental divorce, or intimate partner violence).

Percent of adults reporting at least one adverse childhood experience, by age
Total, 18-plus: 61.0%
Aged 18 to 24: 70.5%
Aged 25 to 34: 69.5%
Aged 35 to 44: 65.0%
Aged 45 to 54: 62.5%
Aged 55 to 64: 58.9%
Aged 65-plus: 47.9%

Younger people are much more likely than older adults to report at least one adverse childhood experience. In part, this is because the experience of parental divorce is much greater for younger than older adults. Another reason for the difference by age is the greater willingness of younger adults to call out abuse and admit to family problems.

Thirty-nine percent of adults reported no adverse childhood experiences, 23 percent reported one, 22 percent reported two or three, and 16 percent reported four or more. Those who report four or more adverse childhood experiences also report greater health and socioeconomic problems than those who faced less adversity, the CDC found.  "Adverse childhood experiences are associated with leading causes of morbidity and mortality and with poor socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood," concludes the report.

Source: CDC, Vital Signs: Estimates Proportion of Adult Health Problems Attributable to Adverse Childhood Experiences and Implications for Prevention—25 States, 2015–2017

What Explains the Retirement Savings Shortfall?

In a perfect world, the typical worker would have saved $364,000 in a 401(k)/IRA retirement account by the time he or she was aged 55 to 64. Instead, the typical worker at age 55 to 64 has accumulated only $92,000.

What accounts for the gap in what should be and what is? In a study to determine the reasons for the gap, researchers at the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) analyzed IRS tax records and data from the Census Bureau's 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation. First they estimated potential 401(k) balances in a perfect world—a world in which there is universal coverage, consistent contributions of 9 percent of earnings (6 percent contributed by workers and 3 percent by employers), no early withdrawals, and no fees. In that world, retirement savings for the typical worker aged 55 to 64 would amount to $364,000.

But the world is not perfect. The results of the CRR analysis show that one of the biggest reasons retirement savings are falling short of their potential is the immaturity of the 401(k) system, which went into effect in the early 1980s. Consequently, the "relatively recent shift from traditional pensions to the newer 401(k) plans means that many of today's 60-year-olds did not participate in a 401(k) plan when they were young workers," explain the researchers. Another major reason retirement savings are not as high as they could be is the lack of universal coverage. Many employers do not provide their workers with the opportunity to participate in a 401(k) plan. Lesser reasons for the shortfall are fees and leakages.

Here is how each of these reasons reduces the $364,000 potential in retirement savings to a paltry $92,000...

IRA balance for typical worker aged 55 to 64
$364,000 potential in a perfect system
Reduced to $247,800 after accounting for the immature 401(k) system
Reduced to $136,200 after accounting for the lack of universal coverage
Reduced to $122,800 after accounting for fees
Reduced to $92,000 after accounting for leakages

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Why Are 401(k)/IRA Balances Substantially Below Potential?

Most Kids Get to School by Private Vehicle

Despite the ubiquitous yellow school buses driving the roads most months of the year, the 54 percent majority of the nation's children are driven to school in a private vehicle, according to the Federal Highway Administration's National Household Transportation Survey. A smaller 33 percent ride a school bus. Just 10 percent walk or bike to school.

The way children aged 5 to 17 get to school has not changed much in the past two decades, reports the Federal Highway Administration. Only 10 percent of children walk or bike to school because the schools most children attend are too far from their home. Among children who live within a half mile of school, most walk or bike to get there.

Percent of 5-to-17-year-olds who walk/bike to school by distance from home to school
81% of those who live less than 0.25 miles from school
56.1% of those who live from 0.25 and 0.50 miles from school
24.8% of those who live from 0.50 to 1 mile from school
  7.0% of those who live from 1 to 2 miles from school
  0.9% of those who live 2 or more miles from school

Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2017 National Household Travel Survey, Children's Travel to School

Housing Problems Loom for Older Americans

Entrepreneurs take note. Over the next two decades, prepare for explosive growth in the number of households headed by people aged 65 or older. According to projections by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS), the number of householders aged 65 or older will expand by 53 percent between 2018 and 2038. The number aged 80 or older will more than double. By 2038, more than one-third (34 percent) of the nation's households will be headed by people aged 65 or older and one in eight (12 percent) will be headed by people aged 80 or older.

The rapid growth in the number of older householders creates problems and opportunities. The problem is that too many older Americans live in housing unsuited to the needs of the aged, according to the JCHS report, Housing America's Older Adults 2019. Fully 80 percent of homeowners aged 65 or older, live in detached, single-family homes. "The majority of these homes are now at least 40 years old and therefore may present maintenance challenges for their owners," says the report.

And that's not all. Many older householders live in low-density communities, making it difficult for them to care for themselves as they age. "The growing concentration of older households in outlying communities presents major challenges for residents and service providers alike," the report warns. "Single family homes make up most of the housing stock in low-density areas, and residents typically need to be able to drive to do errands, see doctors, and socialize."

But problems like these create opportunities. "The need for affordable, accessible housing and in-home supportive services is set to soar," concludes the report.

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Housing America's Older Adults 2019

Standing, Stooping Are the Most Common Physical Difficulties

What are the physical functions Americans have the most trouble performing? Surprisingly, it's not walking a quarter mile or climbing stairs. Instead, the most difficult physical tasks for the largest share of the public are standing for two hours and stooping, bending, and kneeling. Overall, 9 percent of people aged 18 or older—nearly one in 10—say it would be very difficult or impossible for them to stand for two hours. The same percentage say they are not be able to stoop, bend, or kneel.

Overall, 14.9 percent of the public reports having at least one of these difficulties in physical functioning...

Among people aged 18 or older, percent saying it would be very difficult or impossible to...
Stand for two hours: 9.0%
Stoop, bend, kneel: 9.0%
Walk a quarter mile: 7.1%
Push/pull large objects: 5.9%
Climb 10 steps without resting: 4.9%
Lift or carry 10 pounds: 4.1%
Sit for two hours: 3.0%
Reach overhead: 2.3%
Grasp small objects: 1.7%

With age, physical difficulties increase. Only 5 percent of 18-to-44-year-olds report any difficulty in physical functioning. The share rises to 49 percent among people aged 75 or older. Among the oldest Americans, 33 percent say they would find it very difficult or impossible to stand for two hours, 29 percent could not stoop, bend, or kneel, 28 percent could not walk a quarter of a mile, and 20 percent could not climb 10 steps without resting.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Tables of Summary Health Statistics

Most Americans Live in Their State of Birth

More than half of Americans—58 percent—live in their state of birth, according to the Census Bureau's 2018 American Community Survey. The percentage varies greatly by state, however, ranging from a high of 78 percent in Louisiana to a low of 27 percent in Nevada. Here are the five states with the highest and lowest shares of residents born in-state...

Highest percentage born in-state
78.1% in Louisiana
76.2% in Michigan
74.9% in Ohio
71.7% in Pennsylvania
71.7% in Mississippi

Lowest percentage born in-state
27.0% in Nevada
35.9% in Florida
37.1% in District of Columbia
39.7% in Arizona
40.7% in New Hampshire

Source: Census Bureau, State of Residence by Place of Birth—ACS Tables

Median Household Income Rises in September 2019

The upward trend continues. Median household income climbed 0.4 percent between August and September 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $66,214 September median was $234 greater than the August 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.

"Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 3.3 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 18.6 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $55,841.  

Sentier's Household Income Index for September 2019 was 107.2 (January 2000 = 100.0). "We are at a point now where real median household income is 7.2 percent higher than January 2000, the beginning of this statistical series," says Green. "We have seen a strong positive trend in real median annual household income over the past several years, which is encouraging." To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: September, 2019

Gaping Holes in the Safety Net

Gig workers have become a controversial symbol of the gaping holes in the American safety net. Behind the outrage over gig work is our employer-based benefit system, which excludes independent contractors from medical benefits, retirement savings, and other protections. Independent contractors aren't the only ones who are on their own. Most low-wage workers are too...

Percentage of workers whose employer provides medical care benefits, by average wage quartile
Highest: 94%
Third: 88%
Second: 74%
Lowest: 40%

Percentage of workers whose employer provides retirement benefits, by average wage quartile
Highest: 90%
Third : 84%
Second: 70%
Lowest: 46%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Benefits in the United States—March 2019

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, third quarter 2019: 56.5%

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group was stable in the third quarter of 2019, just 0.4 percentage points higher than the second quarter rate and not a significant increase. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. It bottomed out at 55.0 in the fourth quarter of 2016. The current rate is much closer to the bottom than the top.

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds crept up to 47.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the 47.5 percent of the previous quarter. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.8 percent in the third quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate reached an all-time high of 69.0 percent in 2004.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Most Working Women Want to Work

Overall, 56 percent of women aged 18 or older would prefer to have a job outside the home rather than stay at home and take care of house and family, according to a Gallup survey. This is the largest percentage of women expressing a preference for work in all the years Gallup has asked the question, first posed in 1992. Among men, 75 percent say they would rather work than be a homemaker.

Among women with children under age 18, most of those who are employed (57 percent) prefer to work rather than be a homemaker. Most of those who are not employed (67 percent) prefer to be a homemaker rather than have a job outside the home.

Here's the percentage of adults who would prefer to work outside the home rather than stay at home and care for house and family...

Percent of women who prefer working to homemaking
75% of employed women, no children under 18
57% of employed women with children under 18
51% of women who are not employed, no children under 18
30% of women who are not employed, with children under 18

Percent of men who prefer working to homemaking
85% of employed men, no children under 18
73% of employed men with children under 18
69% of men who are not employed, no children under 18
58% of men who are not employed, with children under 18

Fully 42 percent of men who are not employed and have children under age 18 would prefer being a homemaker to working outside the home.

Source: Gallup, Record-High 56% of U.S. Women Prefer Working to Homemaking

Hey! Not All the Gray Hairs Are Boomers

How many of the Democratic presidential candidates are baby boomers? Not as many as you think, unless you're a reporter who assumes anyone with graying hair is a member of the baby-boom generation. That's what Politico writer Ben White assumed recently in his article How the Baby Boomers Broke America—classifying both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden as boomers along with Elizabeth Warren. Of the three, Warren is the only baby boomer, born in 1949. Bernie Sanders (1941) and Joe Biden (1942) were born well before the boomer birth years of 1946 to 1964. Both Sanders and Biden are members of the "Silent Generation."

Only 4 of the 12 Democrats who qualified to participate in the October debate are baby boomers: Warren (1949), Tom Steyer (1957), Amy Klobuchar (1960), and Kamala Harris (1964). Just as well represented at the debate were Generation Xers. Four of the candidates were born during the Gen X birth years of 1965 through 1976: Cory Booker (1969), Beto O'Rourke (1972), Julian Castro (1974), and Andrew Yang (1975). Another two participants in the debate were Millennials, the generation born from 1977 through 1994: Tulsi Gabbard (1981) and Pete Buttigieg (1982).

Number of Democratic presidential candidates by generation 
2 from the Silent generation
4 from the Baby-boom generation
4 from Generation X
2 from the Millennial generation

The winner of the Democratic presidential primary will face Republican Donald Trump on election day 2020. Trump is a baby boomer, born in 1946. He is younger than Sanders and Biden, but older than the other Democrats.

Note: Ben White of Politico is not the only journalist who has been careless with generational definitions. David Brooks, in his New York Times column, Your Baby Boomer Report Card, also got it wrong. First, he said anyone born after 1960 doesn't count as a boomer, including Barack Obama (born in 1961). Sorry, but you can't cherry pick generational identity. Second, Brooks classified Bob Dylan as a boomer, but Dylan is a member of the Silent Generation (born in 1941 and a few months older than Bernie Sanders). Generational definitions seem to get sloppy when writers are trying a little too hard to make a point.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the birth years of presidential candidates

How Much Is Too Much?

Are parents doing too much for their young adult children? Most Americans think so. According to a Pew Research Center survey, the 55 percent majority of adults say parents are doing too much for their children aged 18 to 29.

But ask the parents of these young adults whether they're doing too much and you get a different answer. Fully 63 percent say they are doing about the right amount. Only 28 percent think they do too much. The remaining 8 percent say they do too little.

One of the big things parents do for their young adult children is help them financially. Among parents with children aged 18 to 29, a substantial 59 percent have provided at least some financial help to their child in the past 12 months. The average American might call this financial help excessive. But parents with children aged 18 to 29 know better than anyone else how hard it is for young adults to achieve financial independence these days. While 64 percent of the public thinks adult children should be financially independent by age 22, only 24 percent of young adults achieve financial independence by age 22.

Source: Pew Research Center, Majority of Americans Say Parents Are Doing Too Much for Their Young Adult Children

We Really Are a Fractured Nation

Fractured Nation is the title of the latest report on American values released by PRRI (the Public Religion Research Institute). The title aptly describes the findings of PRRI's August-September 2019 survey of the public's attitudes about a variety of important issues. Here's a look at some of the fractures by political party identification...

Percent who mostly/completely agree with statement...

	Democrats	Republicans
Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine	26%	65%
These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men	23	53
Today discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities	21	69
Immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background	20	63
It is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values	35	55

Source: PRRI, Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections

Older People Carry the Most Cash

For the first time, cash has fallen to second place as a payment instrument. According to the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, cash was used to pay for 26 percent of transactions in an average month of 2018, down from 31 percent in 2016. Debit cards were in first place in 2018, used to pay for 28 percent of transactions.

The declining use of cash is not much of a surprise, since younger adults are spurning cash in favor of other types of payments. The Diary results confirm this notion. The 25-to-34 age group used cash to pay for only 18 percent of purchases in an average month of 2018. The figure was an almost identical 19 percent among 35-to-44-year-olds. Cash is much more commonly used as a payment instrument by the youngest and oldest adults. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, 34 percent of payments are made with cash. Among people aged 65 or older, the figure is 33 percent.

Americans carried $58 in cash on their person on an average day of 2018. The amount varies by age, however, with people aged 65 or older carrying the most cash.

Amount of cash carried on an average day, 2018
Under age 25: $20
Aged 25 to 34: $37
Aged 35 to 44: $36
Aged 45 to 54: $59
Aged 55 to 64: $68
Aged 65-plus: $104

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2019 Findings from the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice

Citizenship Controversy Raises Awareness of Census

Maybe there is a silver lining to all the controversy surrounding the Trump administration's failed attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. There is nearly universal awareness of the upcoming census, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded in September. Fully 98 percent of adults say they have heard of the 2020 census. This level of awareness six months prior to census day (April 1, 2020) is good news.

The great majority of the public also plans to participate in the census, according to Pew's results. Overall, 84 percent of people aged 18 or older say they probably or definitely will participate in the 2020 census. Enthusiasm for the census rises with age...

Percent who probably/definitely will participate in the 2020 census
Total, all ages: 84%
Aged 18 to 29: 66%
Aged 30 to 49: 82%
Aged 50 to 64: 90%
Aged 65-plus: 97%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most U.S. Adults Intend to Participate in 2020 Census, but Some Demographic Groups Aren't Sure

White Working Class Is in Decline

The white working class is declining not only as a share of the total U.S. population but also in absolute numbers, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis.

Today, only 40 percent of Americans aged 25 or older are white working class (defined as non-Hispanic Whites aged 25 or older without a four-year college degree). This is much lower than the 71 percent share of the population this group accounted for in 1975. During the past four-plus decades, the nonwhite working class (Hispanics, Blacks, and other minorities without a four-year degree) and non-Hispanic White college graduates have been growing. Each of these groups is now 25 percent of the population, up from 15 and 12 percent in 1975, respectively. The remaining 10 percent of the population is accounted for by nonwhites with a four-year college degree, up from 1 percent in 1975.

Social and demographic change explains the decline of the white working class—the growing share of non-Hispanic Whites who are earning a college degree and the rapid growth of minority populations relative to the non-Hispanic White population. "Whatever the cause," conclude the researchers, "the decline of this group will undoubtedly continue to have lasting economic and social consequences for the U.S."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The White Working Class: National Trends, Then and Now

Men's Earnings: Explaining Differences in Trajectory

Why do some workers enjoy rising incomes over their career while other workers can't seem to make any gains? That question was posed by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They examined W-2s and self-employment income of men at ages 25 and again at 55 to see how their earnings grew over the decades. For the median worker, real annual earnings grew 60 percent. But workers below the 20th percentile in earnings had lower earnings at age 55 than they did at age 25. Meanwhile, those in the top 1 percent saw their earnings increase by a factor of 27.

The researchers found several differences in the labor force experience of low- and high-income workers that could affect the earning trajectory of men over their career...

• low-income workers lose their jobs more frequently
• low-income workers have longer spells of unemployment
• low-income workers are less likely to be contacted about alternative job opportunities 

Although high-income workers receive more alternative job offers than low-income workers, they are less likely than low-income workers to switch jobs. "Even though high earners are solicited more often, these solicitations do not always translate into job-to-job switches," say the researchers. "In fact, top income earners are much less likely to switch jobs. While we do not know the particular reason for this behavior, it can be the result of either the earner already having a high-paying job or the current employer responding to the risk of losing its worker."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Job Ladders and Careers

Transportation Costs in Metros and States

Nationally, the average household devotes 16 percent of its expenditures to transportation (vehicle purchases, finance charges, insurance, repairs, gasoline, public transportation, etc.). But in the Detroit metropolitan area, residents spend a larger 19 percent of their budget on transportation. Just as housing costs vary across the country, so do transportation expenses. Here is transportation's share of average household spending in selected metropolitan areas...

Transportation as a share of average household spending, 2017–18
Detroit: 19.3%
Phoenix: 19.0%
Dallas: 16.8%
Miami: 16.3%
Houston: 15.9%
Baltimore: 15.8%
Chicago: 13.2%
Boston: 12.0%
New York: 12.0%
San Francisco: 11.3%

According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics' analysis of the first state-level spending data ever teased from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the average Texas household devotes 20 percent of its budget to transportation. This is significantly greater than the 16 to 17 percent of the budget devoted to transportation by households in the metro areas of Dallas and Houston. Transportation consumed 15 percent of the average household's budget in California and 14 percent in New York state, higher than the share devoted to transportation by households in San Francisco (11 percent) or the New York metro (12 percent).

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

Death Rate Much Lower for Married People

Married people have strikingly lower death rate than the never-married, divorced, or widowed, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. Take a look at the number of deaths per 100,000 population in 2017 by marital status...

Age-adjusted death rate by marital status in 2017
   779.6 for the married
1,368.8 for the divorced
1,443.6 for the never married
1,656.9 for the widowed

The age-adjusted death rate of married people was 43 percent lower than the death rate of the divorced in 2017. It was 46 percent lower than the death rate of the never married, and 53 percent lower than the death rate of the widowed.

One factor that leads to the lower death rate for the married is self-selection, with healthier people more likely than the less healthy to be married. Another factor is the benefit of living with someone who has your back, urging you to go to doctor appointments, take your pills, and eat right. A third factor leading to higher death rates for the single, divorced, widowed, is the stress surrounding the single life, marital breakups, and the death of a spouse.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality among Adults Aged 25 and over by Marital Status: United States, 2010–2017

Student Loans: How Much Is Owed?

Americans owe nearly $1.5 trillion in student loan debt, more than they owe for auto loans or credit card debt. But what is the maximum amount owed by individual borrowers? That's what the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wanted to figure out. To investigate, Fed researchers used Equifax Consumer Credit Panel data, calculating the maximum loan balance for each borrower between 2000 and 2018, adjusted for inflation.

The median student loan balance is $24,899, according to the findings. But there is great variation in the amount borrowed. More than 20 percent of borrowers owe more than $50,000, and 5 percent owe nearly $100,000 or more. Here are student loan balances by percentile of borrowers...

Student loan balances
20th percentile: $9,703
40th percentile: $19,125
60th percentile: $31,312
80th percentile: $54,497
95th percentile: $99,025
99th percentile: $135,472

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Are Students Borrowing Too Much? Or Too Little?

Number of Workers Aged 75-Plus Will Double

The median age of the labor force is projected to rise by another 0.6 years between now and 2028—from 41.9 in 2018 to 42.5 in 2028, according to recently released projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn't sound like a big deal.

But it is a big deal. The incremental increase in the median age masks dramatic shifts in the labor force by age group as the large baby-boom generation gets older and labor force participation rates among older workers rise. Take a look at the 10-year change projected for the labor force by age...

Percent change in labor force by age, 2018 to 2028
Total labor force: 5.5%
Aged 16 to 24:    -6.1%
Aged 25 to 34:     0.5%
Aged 35 to 44:   13.9%
Aged 45 to 54:    -1.1%
Aged 55 to 64:    -1.3%
Aged 65 to 74:   50.8%
Aged 75-plus:  104.9%

Only one age group under age 65 will gain a significant number of workers during the decade ahead. Meanwhile, the number of workers aged 65 or older will grow 61 percent. The BLS projects a 51 percent increase in the number of workers aged 65 to 74, and a doubling in the number of workers aged 75 or older. Not only are aging boomers inflating the older population, but the labor force participation rate of older workers is projected to climb as well. Among workers aged 65 to 74, the labor force participation rate is projected to climb from 27.0 to 32.5 percent. (For perspective, only 17.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force in 1998.) The labor force participation rate of people aged 75 or older is projected to rise to 12.1 percent, up from 8.7 percent in 2018. (In 1998, only 4.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force.) Workers aged 65 or older will account for 9.4 percent of the labor force in 2028, up from 6.2 percent in 2018.

Because there will be little or no growth in the number of younger workers in the decade ahead, expect businesses with expanding workforces to turn to older workers to fill positions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

Profiles of Violent Death

There were 65,000 violent deaths in the United States in 2016, according to the CDC. The 62 percent majority were suicides, followed by homicides (25 percent), deaths of undetermined intent (11 percent),  legal intervention (1 percent), and unintentional firearm deaths (fewer than 1 percent). The legal intervention category is defined as "deaths caused by law enforcement and other persons with legal authority to use deadly force in the line of duty, excluding legal executions."

The CDC analyzed the circumstances surrounding the violent deaths that occurred in 32 states in 2016. In those states, there were 23,630 suicides, 10,336 homicides, 515 legal interventions, and 295 unintentional firearm deaths. The CDC examined the demographics of the victims  (age, sex, race), the method of death (firearm, sharp instrument, drowning, etc.), the location of death (house/apartment, street, etc.), and precipitating circumstances (depression, intimate partner problem, job problem, crime in progress, and so on).

Looking at the most likely scenario for each type of violent death, here are their profiles...

Suicide: A non-Hispanic White (83 percent) man (77 percent) aged 35 to 64 (52 percent) shot (49 percent) or hung (28 percent) himself in his house/apartment (74 percent) because he was depressed (74 percent). He did not leave a suicide note (66 percent), nor did he disclose to others his suicide intent (76.5 percent).

Homicide: A Black (56 percent) man (79 percent) aged 20 to 34 (46 percent) was shot (74 percent) in his house/apartment (47 percent) by an acquaintance/friend (27 percent) during an argument (32 percent).

Legal intervention death: A non-Hispanic White (50 percent) man (96 percent) aged 25 to 44 (59 percent) was shot (96 percent) in a house/apartment (38 percent) or on the street (28 percent). He had a drug problem (26 percent) or mental illness (21 percent). He had a weapon (73 percent).

Unintentional firearm death: A non-Hispanic White (59 percent) man (86 percent) aged 15 to 24 (35 percent) was in his house/apartment (74 percent), playing (35 percent) with a handgun (63 percent) when he unintentionally pulled the trigger (23.5 percent).

Source: CDC, Surveillance for Violent Deaths—National Violent Death Reporting System, 32 States, 2016

Median Household Income Rises in August 2019

Admit it. It was a disappointment when the Current Population Survey's 2018 median household income estimate, released by the Census Bureau last month, was no higher than the 2017 median, after adjusting for inflation. No need to worry. We already know how things will turn out. The median has been rising month after month during much of 2019, according to Sentier Research, whose Current Population Survey-based estimates track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis. 

Median household income climbed 1.3 percent between July and August 2019, after adjusting for inflation, Sentier reports. The $65,976 August median was 3.4 percent higher than the median a year earlier in August 2018. "Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have seen a strong positive trend in real median annual household income, which is encouraging."

Sentier's Household Income Index for August 2019 was 106.8 (January 2000 = 100.0). 

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: August, 2019

Work Schedule Surprises

Many workers do not know their work schedule much in advance, according to the American Time Use Survey, making it difficult to organize child care arrangements or plan doctor visits.

Percent distribution of workers by how far in advance they know their work schedule
19% know less than one week in advance
16% know one to two weeks in advance
10% know two to four weeks in advance
55% know four or more weeks in advance

Among workers without a high school diploma, nearly one-third (31 percent) do not know their work schedule even a week in advance.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Flexibilities and Work Schedules Summary

25% of Workers Sometimes Work from Home

Remember when computers and the internet were going to revolutionize the world of work? The ability to work remotely would solve all sorts of social and economic problems—allowing parents to care for young children, saving workers the time and expense of commuting, and lowering the cost of office space for employers. We're still waiting...

Wage and salary workers by work-at-home status, 2017–18
Total wage and salary workers: 100.0%
Workers who occasionally worked at home: 24.8%
Workers with days worked exclusively at home: 14.7%
Workers who worked exclusively at home at least one day per week: 8.0%

While 25 percent of wage and salary workers occasionally worked at home during the 2017–18 time period, according to the American Time Use Survey, many were just finishing up office work after hours. Only 15 percent of wage and salary workers spent a day working exclusively from home, and just 8 percent worked at home exclusively at least one day per week.

Why haven't computers and the internet created a sizable work-at-home labor force? Parents found out it was too hard to manage child care and job duties at the same time. Workers discovered face time at the office was worth the hassle of the commute. Employers grew weary of remote management. For whatever reason, working at home has not turned out to be as popular as once predicted. Of those who occasionally worked at home in 2017–18, the 56 percent majority did so primarily for personal reasons—it was their preference, they were trying to fit work in with personal or family needs, or they wanted to reduce commuting costs. But a substantial 43 percent worked at home primarily out of necessity—they had to catch up on work, their employer required it, or bad weather kept them at home.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Flexibilities and Work Schedules—2017–2018 Data from the American Time Use Survey

50% Increase in Householders Aged 65 to 74

Since 2010, the number of households headed by people aged 65 to 74 has expanded by 50 percent, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. This increase accounts for most of the decade's household growth—6.5 million of the 11.0 million increase in households between 2010 and 2019. The number of households headed by people aged 55 to 64 and 75-plus also grew faster than average. Householders aged 55 or older now head nearly half (45 percent) of the nation's households, up from 39 percent in 2010.

Three age groups lost households between 2010 and 2019. The biggest loss occurred among 45-to-54-year-olds. There were 2.8 million fewer householders aged 45 to 54 in 2019 than in 2010 as the small Generation X passed through the age group.

Numerical (and percent) change in households by age of householder, 2010 to 2019
Total households: 11,041,000 (9.4%)
Under age 25:           –34,000 (–0.5%)
Aged 25 to 34:       1,354,000 (7.0%)
Aged 35 to 44:        –149,000 (–0.7%)
Aged 45 to 54:      –2,800,000 (–11.3%)
Aged 55 to 64:        3,785,000 (18.6%)
Aged 65 to 74:        6,517,000 (49.5%)
Aged 75-plus:         2,369,000 (19.6%)

Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Income Data Tables

Print Books Remain Most Popular

Nearly three out of four adults have read a book in the previous 12 months, according to a Pew Research Center survey, and print remains the most popular format. Overall, 72 percent of the public read a book in any format in the past year: 65 percent read a print book, 25 percent read an ebook, and 20 percent listened to an audiobook.

Interestingly, young adults are not only more likely than any other age group to have read a book in the past year, they are also most likely to have read a print book..

Percent who have read any book (and a print book) in the past year, 2019
Aged 18 to 29: 81% (74%)
Aged 30 to 49: 72% (65%)
Aged 50 to 64: 67% (59%)
Aged 65-plus: 68% (63%)

Source: Pew Research Center, One-in-five Americans Now Listen to Audiobooks

Who Works on Weekends?

The average worker works 4.77 days a week. Sixty-eight percent of workers work Monday through Friday. But 19 percent of workers usually work on Saturday and 12 percent usually work on Sunday, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey. By day of the week, here is the percentage of workers who say they usually work on that day...

Percent of workers who usually work on...
Monday: 81.0%
Tuesday: 82.3%
Wednesday: 82.5%
Thursday: 82.3%
Friday: 80.4%
Saturday: 19.2%
Sunday: 12.1%

Workers without a high school diploma are among those most likely to work weekends—31 percent usually work Saturdays and 17 percent Sundays. Those in service occupations are also more likely than average to work weekends—39 percent usually work Saturdays and 28 percent Sundays. By industry, fully 50 percent of leisure and hospitality workers usually work Saturdays and 36 percent Sundays.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Flexibilities and Work Schedules—2017–2018 Data from the American Time Use Survey

Which Occupations Are Dominated by Millennials?

Millennials account for a larger share of the labor force than any other generation. Among the nation's employed in 2018, a substantial 39 percent were Millennials. Boomers and Gen Xers each accounted for 25 percent of the employed, and the iGeneration was 11 percent.

The Millennial share of workers exceeds 39 percent in many occupations and tops 50 percent in more than two dozen. Among the 328 detailed occupations for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides age distributions and median ages, Millennials account for more than 50 percent of workers in 29 occupations. Here are the top five...

Millennial share of workers (top five occupations)
60.3% of emergency medical technicians and paramedics
59.2% of physician assistants
58.8% of bartenders
58.1% of roofers
57.2% of web developers

Millennials also account for more than half of statisticians, firefighters, software developers, financial analysts, probation officers, medical scientists, market researchers, producers and directors, telemarketers, speech language pathologists, information security analysts, physical therapists, police and sheriff's patrol officers, and private detectives.

Note: In 2018, the iGeneration was aged 16 to 23, Millennials were aged 24 to 41, Gen Xers were aged 42 to 53, and Boomers were aged 54 to 72.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, Household Data, Annual Averages